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October 19, 2021 - Brief Issue 252

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Sees Seasonal Rise in Cases in Northern States (Health & Science)

French Vaccine Could be as Effective as Oxford/AstraZeneca Shot (Health & Science)

Scientists Wonder if Not Tweaking Boosters for Variants is Missed Opportunity (Health & Science)

Vaccine Hesitancy Fueling Surge in Russia (Around the World)

Ultra-Orthodox Community in Israel Had Higher Rate of Coronavirus Infections (Around the World)

No Vaccine, No Visa for Australian Open Tennis Stars (Around the World)

GOP Sees Opening in Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions (U.S. Government & Politics)

Rising Rents Increase Pressure On Those at Risk of Eviction (U.S. Economy)

Amazon to Hire 150,000 Seasonal Workers (U.S. Economy)

Florida School Imposes 30 Day Stay at Home Period for Vaccinated Students Citing False Information (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 45,051,922 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 726,267 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 408,797,942 vaccine doses, with 66% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 57% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 79% have received at least one dose, and 68.5% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 5.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 241,222,689 confirmed cases of coonavirus, with 4,907,572 deaths.

Bonus Read: “Why Public Health Faces a Crisis Across the U.S.” (NYT).

U.S. Sees Seasonal Rise in Cases in Northern States

Counties in the northernmost regions of the United States are seeing a rise in cases, even as the nation’s latest wave, driven by the Delta variant, seems to be receding. Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho are the five states with the highest daily average number of cases per capita. Alaska leads with 125 cases per 100,000 people (NYT). Cases in those five states are holding steady while numbers in Vermont, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota are all increasing. The two counties with the most cases per capita in Vermont and New Hampshire are on the Canadian border. The pattern that’s emerging seems to follow the one seen last year: cases receded in the Southern states in the fall but steadily increased in the North as people moved indoors as the weather got colder. Health experts hope that the use of vaccines will prevent another catastrophic fall and winter but say people need to be wary still as a large portion of the population remains unvaccinated. Bonus Read: “Is a winter wave of coronavirus looming?” (Economist).

French Vaccine Could be as Effective as Oxford/AstraZeneca Shot

Results of a Phase 3 trial released by French pharmaceutical company Valneva on Monday suggest that its Covid-19 vaccine may trigger a stronger immune response than the Oxford/AstraZeneca shot, offering additional hope for global vaccination efforts. Valneva’s vaccine works by delivering the whole -- but inactivated -- Sars-CoV-2 virus in a process that is similar to the flu and polio vaccines (Guardian). Valneva said the vaccine had a "neutralising antibody seroconversion rate above 95%" and there were no severe cases of Covid seen in the trial despite variants, such as Delta, being in circulation. Lead investigator Prof Adam Finn, of the University of Bristol, said the results, shared in a press release, were both "impressive and extremely encouraging." He added, "These results suggest this vaccine candidate is on track to play an important role in overcoming the pandemic."

Some scientists have suggested that using the whole virus could result in a broader immune response and could also help recipients maintain protection from new variants. The Valneva vaccine is stable when stored in a standard refrigerator, making storing and shipping easier. The company is seeking approval from the UK health regulatory agency for its vaccine for people aged 18-55 while it awaits trial results for older adults (BBC). 

Scientists Wonder if Not Tweaking Boosters for Variants is Missed Opportunity

Current Covid-19 booster shots are being rolled out but there’s no difference between the extra dose of the vaccine and the initial dose, which has some experts wondering if the booster campaign is a missed opportunity to target newer variants, like Delta. “Don’t we want to match the new strains that are most likely to circulate as closely as possible?” Dr. Cody Meissner of Tufts Medical Center, an adviser to the Food and Drug Administration, challenged Pfizer scientists recently (AP). “I don’t quite understand why this is not delta because that’s what we’re facing right now,” fellow adviser Dr. Patrick Moore of the University of Pittsburgh said last week as government experts debated whether it’s time for Moderna boosters. He wondered if such a switch would be particularly useful to block mild infection.

But it seems that the FDA has reasoned that Pfizer’s original recipe works well enough against the Delta variant and the fact that those doses could be given right away outweighed any potential benefit of waiting for a newly developed formula that would target the variants. “It’s less churn and burn on the manufacturing” to only switch formulas when it’s really necessary, said FDA vaccine chief Dr. Peter Marks. But that doesn’t mean pharmaceutical companies aren’t considering a new recipe for the future; Pfizer and Moderna are both already testing experimental doses customized to Delta and other variants to better understand how to tweak the formula. 

Around the World

Vaccine Hesitancy Fueling Surge in Russia

Vaccine hesitancy in Russia has left the country vulnerable to an overwhelming surge in new Covid-19 cases that is setting records for its severity. Experts say the hesitancy to get vaccinated is just an extension of another problem: widespread mistrust of the Russian government (NYT). Even though shots are free and widely available, only one-third of the population is fully vaccinated. 

“Approximately 40 percent of Russians do not trust the government, and those people are among the most active who refuse the vaccines,” said Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, an independent polling operation. In August, one of its polls showed that 52% of Russians were uninterested in being vaccinated. “It’s about trust and approval in the government and the president,” he said. “Those who trust, they are much more ready to do it.” Discrepancies in reporting data have only deepened mistrust. 

The veracity of the government’s reported numbers has been questioned by demographers and researchers. On Friday, for example, Russia’s statistics agency said that more than 43,500 people died from Covid-19 in August. But another state body, the national Covid-19 task force, registered fewer than 25,000 fatalities that month.

Ultra-Orthodox Community in Israel Had Higher Rate of Coronavirus Infections

According to a new study by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel, a nonpartisan think tank, almost one in three ultra-Orthodox Israelis have been infected with the coronavirus, more than double the national average (Times of Israel). The study found that from the start of the pandemic until September 2021, 13.7% of the Israeli population tested positive for Covid-19. That number rises to 31% in the ultra-Orthodox community. While vaccine uptake amongst the ultra-Orthodox has risen in recent months, Alex Weinreb, the research Director at the Taub Center, says the higher rate of infection comes from a “failure to control behavior.” Other researchers have said that behavior isn’t the sole cause and that circumstances, like high population density and propensity for poverty among the community are contributing factors. 

No Vaccine, No Visa for Australian Open Tennis Stars

Professional tennis players looking to compete in the Australian Open in January are unlikely to be granted a visa to enter the country if they aren’t vaccinated, according to Victoria state Premier Daniel Andrews (AP). “I don’t think any unvaccinated tennis player is going to get a visa to come into this country,” Andrews said. Australia’s borders have been closed for more than 18 months and are only now preparing to reopen. The process will be gradual with states taking their own approaches to granting entry. In Victoria, for example, there is a vaccine mandate already for professional athletes competing in domestic sports leagues and for people working in certain industries, like the healthcare industry. 

U.S. Government & Politics

GOP Sees Opening in Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions

With the holiday season approaching Republicans are sensing that inflation and ongoing pandemic-related supply chain disruptions may pose a political issue for President Biden, and are moving to take advantage (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Republicans are tying the supply-chain and inflation issues to the administration’s policy goals, saying the Democrats’ social policy and climate plan currently being debated in Congress would exacerbate the squeeze by injecting potentially trillions more dollars of government funding into an already sizzling economy. They say that they see these issues as powerful political arguments heading into next year’s midterm elections, when Mr. Biden’s party is at risk of losing legislative power.” Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN), for example, released a statement reading in part, “Will Christmas be ruined because goods aren’t available?” The Republican National Committee has also taken up the talking point. The Journal writes, “The research wing of the Republican National Committee quickly shared the clip and later accused Mr. Biden of ignoring questions after his supply-chain speech about whether Christmas gifts would arrive on time.” As we covered in a prior brief, President Biden spoke on the issue of supply chain disruptions last week, and the administration has sought to address the issue, but many are skeptical that political action will make a difference in time.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Foreign Investment Rebounds but Strained Factories Miss Out,” (WSJ).

Rising Rents Increase Pressure On Those at Risk of Eviction

As we have covered in prior briefs, despite wide concern, so far there is little evidence of an eviction wave following the removal of the federal eviction ban. However, the New York Times reports that for those who have been evicted - including those not counted in the data on increasing evictions because they were evicted during the ban - now face a tough scenario of rising rent (NYT). The New York Times writes, that the data showing little increase in evictions “do not capture evictions … that were filed during the pandemic but are only now being executed — right as rents surge far beyond prepandemic prices and the budgets of many renters.” RealPage, a real estate data analytics firm, reported that rents rose 10.3% in the third quarter of 2021 and vacancies fell below three percent, a three decade record. Zach Neumann, director of the Covid-19 Eviction Defense Project in Colorado, told the Times that the rising rent prices have limited the effectiveness of rental assistance. For their part landlords have argued that the market is just catching up with what it would have been without the pandemic.

Amazon to Hire 150,000 Seasonal Workers

Amazon plans to hire 150,000 seasonal workers in the U.S. to help cover the holiday rush in purchases (WSJ). This represents an increase over the 100,000 they hired in 2020, and also comes alongside previously announced plans to increase the company’s permanent workforce. The Journal writes, “After pay increases rolled out earlier this year, Amazon jobs have an average starting wage of $18 an hour, the company said. Seasonal workers are also eligible for sign-on bonuses and hourly bonuses on some shifts.” Other companies also plan to hire large numbers of seasonal workers. The Journal reports, “Walmart said last month it is aiming to add 150,000 people to its U.S. workforce of about 1.6 million. Target Corp. wants to hire 100,000 seasonal workers and around 30,000 warehouse employees.” The hiring will come at a time when a record number of Americans have quit their jobs, and a range of industries are facing challenges hiring enough workers.

U.S. Society

Florida School Imposes 30 Day Stay at Home Period for Vaccinated Students Citing False Information

Last week, Centner Academy, notorious for having banned vaccinated teachers from interacting with students in April, imposed a new rule requiring students who get vaccinated to stay out of school for 30 days (WaPo). Like the prior action from the anti-vaccine school, this one is also based on false information. The Washington Post writes, “The email from Centner Academy leadership, first reported by WSVN, repeated misleading and false claims that vaccinated people could pass on so-called harmful effects of the shot and have a ‘potential impact’ on unvaccinated students and staff. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has debunked claims that the coronavirus vaccine can ‘shed or release any of their components’ through the air or skin contact. The coronavirus vaccines do not contain a live virus, so their components can’t be transmitted to others.”

Bonus Read: “Inside the N.Y.C. Neighborhood With the Fastest Growing Asian Population,” (NYT). 

Analysis & Arguments

Derek Thompson writes that changes in workers’ expectations as a result of the pandemic will be long lasting (Atlantic).

Sarah Jones writes on religion and the pandemic (NYMag) and discusses it with Matthew Sitman on the Know Your Enemy podcast (Dissent).

Michael Brendan Dougherty argues that focusing U.S. policy on vaccinating young children is a mistake (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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