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Retail’s Inventory Overhang; Spreading Out Chips; Bike Production Chopped

By Paul Page

 

Inventory arrives at the Port of Oakland last fall. PHOTO: NOAH BERGER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The notorious bullwhip effect is playing out in real time in America’s stores. Retailers in their earnings this week have reported a surge of inventory as they found themselves carrying too much stuff that is no longer in high demand. The WSJ’s Jinjoo Lee reports goods like basic apparel, home appliances and furniture have piled up even as consumers have pivoted to services and to dressier office clothing, suggesting that the price-slashing sales that merchants fear may be on the way. For the retailers, the market is looking increasingly like a textbook example of the bullwhip effect, in which companies scale up quickly to meet new demand only to see the market turn downward just as fast. Walmart and Target saw inventory swell by 32% and 43%, respectively, last quarter. Kohl’s is forecasting flat or 1% sales growth but its inventory was up 40% last quarter.

  • Department store chain Kohl’s slashed its sales and profit targets amid a sharper-than-expected pullback in consumer spending/ (WSJ)
 

Quotable

“This is the beginning of a consumer pullback.”

— Neil Saunders of GlobalData Retail, on retailers’ weak results.
 
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Supply Chain Strategies

The world's largest contract chip maker has a fab expansion plan. PHOTO: TYRONE SIU/REUTERS

The push to reset the world’s semiconductor supply chains is getting fresh impetus. The world’s largest contract chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, is considering building a factory in Singapore, the WSJ’s Yang Jie and Keith Zhai write, raising the Southeast Asian city-state’s profile in the high-value, high-stakes production of microprocessors. Singapore is already home to many major chip manufacturers and has been favored by semiconductor companies for its talent pool and established ecosystem of suppliers. Major chip makers like GlobalFoundries, Micron Technology and Infineon Technologies have a large presence there, and manufacturers have billions of dollars in production plants in the works. TSMC hasn’t made a final decision, but new investment by the Taiwan-based company would give chip operations in Singapore new scale. For TSMC, spreading out production sites brings the company closer to its customers in major markets and is a hedge against potential disruptions.

 
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Manufacturing

Inventory on wheels. PHOTO: LUKE SHARRETT/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Harley-Davidson is having trouble kick-starting its production. The company has halted assembly and shipments of most of its motorcycles, the WSJ’s Will Feuer reports, following a notification from a supplier over regulatory compliance. The two-week suspension covers all vehicles except its electric-motorcycle unit LiveWire. The company said it received a notice from a supplier late Tuesday relating to a component part and took the action on Wednesday, saying it was out of an abundance of caution.
It’s the latest bump in the road for Harley, which last month said that a shortage of semiconductors left the motorcycle maker unable to fully meet demand last quarter, cutting North American sales and profits. The company has been on a mission to curb costs and increase profits by focusing on leaner operations, scaling back its overseas expansions, eliminating some models of bikes and reducing inventories.

 

Here are recent developments following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

Russia dismissed calls from top United Nations and Western officials to halt a Black Sea blockade that has prevented Ukraine from exporting much of its grain to world markets. (WSJ)

The European Parliament suspended duties on all imports from Ukraine for a year. (WSJ)

Western policymakers are discussing using secondary sanctions to enforce a possible cap on the price of Russian oil. (WSJ)

European natural-gas utilities agreed to new payment terms with Russia’s Gazprom that appear to defuse a threat over a sharp cutoff. (WSJ)

China is in talks to buy oil from Russia for its strategic reserves. (Bloomberg)

The U.K. is rolling out sanctions aimed at preventing Russian airlines from selling their unused landing slots at British airports. (WSJ)

McDonald’s will sell its Russian business to existing licensee Alexander Govor. (WSJ)

For the latest updates from Russia and Ukraine, click here

 
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Number of the Day

752,610

International containers moved in North American intermodal networks in April, a 10.4% decline from the same month last year, according to the Intermodal Association of North America.

 

In Other News

The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits fell this month to the lowest point in 52 years. (WSJ)

Existing-home sales in the U.S. slipped 2.4% in April, falling to the weakest pace in nearly two years. (WSJ)

The Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. slipped 0.3% in April. (MarketWatch)

Indonesia is set to lift its ban on exports of palm oil starting Monday. (WSJ)

Shanghai's port is running at 90% of capacity and is giving priority to restoring exports of semiconductors, car parts and chemicals. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Boeing won a key order for 737 MAX passenger aircraft from the owner of British Airways. (WSJ)

China’s imports of natural gas fell nearly 20% in April and liquefied natural gas imports were off nearly 35%. (Caixin Global)

Hyundai Motor plans a $16.5 billion expansion of its electric-vehicle business in South Korea. (Reuters)

Foodservice distributor Sysco plans to roll out nearly 800 electric trucks from Daimler Truck North America by 2026. (MarketWatch)

Clorox is shedding backup suppliers as the Covid-19 pandemic shifts toward “more of an endemic phase.” (Supply Chain Dive)

Euronav shareholders rejected the addition to the board of representatives that oppose a merger with rival tanker operator Frontline. (Splash 247)

A majority of supply chain professionals in a survey expect disruptions in the third quarter to exceed last year’s turbulence. (Supply Chain Quarterly)

Loaded container imports into Georgia’s Port of Savannah increased 5% year-over-year in April and were up 40.1% from April 2019. (Port Technology)

British parcel carrier Royal Mail says its need to adapt to changing consumer behavior is growing “more urgent.” (Financial Times)

 

About Us

Paul Page is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Write to him at paul.page@wsj.com.

Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team: @PaulPage and @pdberger. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report on Twitter at @WSJLogistics.

 
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