Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 4, April/2022

Brought to you by CPG

Supported by KAS

Dear Readers,

Predictably, the war in Ukraine remains the dominating development shaping domestic politics and international relations. While this will likely continue in the following weeks, some of the current major themes within the flurry of news related to the war and its consequences are about to emerge in greater clarity.

Russia´s often-claimed military failures might be less significant for the war’s outcome than some have hoped. One is reminded of Robert Jervis pointedly quoting an American official in the Vietnam War who concluded, as one of the axioms of war, that “things are never as good as they seem when they are good, or as bad as they seem when they are bad.” Its military shortcomings notwithstanding, Russia’s military strategy of focusing on eroding the strength of the Ukrainian army instead of getting bogged down in urban warfare also seems to be less of a failure than often reported.

With the West not being willing to become a direct party to the war, the disappointment expressed by President Zelensky of Ukraine over the recent NATO summit and his announced accommodations of Moscow only further indicate that Russia is far more likely to reach its significant strategic goals than not.

While the summit of the Western military alliance and surrounding developments did not leave the impression that the momentum was on NATO’s side, or that US President Joe Biden would provide the kind of American leadership many had hoped for, the real - albeit not imminent – danger of a Third World War and the nightmare scenario of a nuclear escalation has dauntingly taken shape over recent weeks. This risk remains and, as it seems, is often still not sufficiently appreciated.

While it is precisely this risk that confines all external support for Ukraine largely to the present level of threat, Russia is not necessarily about to score a simple victory, however. It can, for instance, hardly expect to easily occupy and control a country whose forest cover favoured the Ukrainian resistance against Soviet and German forces during World War II. Thus, Russia will arguably need to negotiate with Kiev and will likely also have to make some concessions.

Moreover, economic sanctions have hit Russia hard, even if not as hard as expected by many observers. One unintended effect of the punitive measures is that they have seemingly united large parts of the Russian population more firmly behind President Putin. Very likely they will severely affect the global economy, possibly contribute to a weakening of the dollar as reserve currency, and eventually weaken the global governance architecture. Western sanctions are also opening space for China to potentially fill the gaps left by Western companies exiting Russia and Ukraine, and are greatly helping to direct crucial commodity flows from Russia to China. In the end, though, they might eventually also bring down Russia, even if this is less clearly the case today than it seemed when the sanctions were imposed.

Crucial will be the development of European-Russian energy relations after Moscow demanded payment in roubles for its gas – a demand which European countries reject. Given the energy needs of a country like Germany, the vast difficulties in compensating for Russian gas flows, OPEC’s new-found self-confidence, and the openness of Asian energy markets to Russia, there are reasons to question whether Europe commands stronger leverage than Russia in this regard. Additionally, a halt in Russian energy and other commodity supplies could create severe ripple effects throughout the global economy, with Western countries like the United Kingdom and United States – which are not dependent on Russian energy – already experiencing frightening inflation rates.

Therefore, slightly more likely than further escalation is a period of careful rapprochement on the energy issue over the coming weeks. This will likely accompany talks between Moscow and Kiev on an end to the war. In case, however, that Russia actually is in the relatively better position in the European-Russian energy trade, possible Russian concessions to delay required Ruble payments could also aim at splitting Western unity while more carefully preparing a sustaining establishment of alternative international payment mechanisms.

Another important dimension of the Ukraine war is its effect on global order and the global balances of power. Here, the West appears only as united as it has to be in the given situation, while it remains unable to muster the level of support from non-Western partners that it would wish to have. Although China seems to have effectively sided firmly with Russia, “Quad member” India, aware of its weight as one of the large Asian powers, refuses to take sides – a fact which is much to Russia’s advantage. India´s external relations minister, when lobbied to join in Western sanctions by the Japanese prime minister, simply reiterated that “Indian foreign policy decisions are made in Indian national interest […] guided by our thinking, our views, our interest.”

That the situation does not strengthen the West’s position in important Middle Eastern countries is reflected by developments such as recent mass executions of prisoners in Saudi Arabia, the reception of Syrian President Assad by the UAE, and the invitation to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to attend the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) annual meeting as a special guest.  

All this indicates how much is at stake, and how important decisions are in a conflict that is far more than just a European problem. Whether things escalate or compromises are sought, Europe in Review will next month again bring you key insights into developments concerning the Ukrainian crisis—and everything else worth knowing about constitutional politics and international relations in Europe.

With that we wish you an informative read and a great day!

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

Russia’s invasion rages on as Ukrainians mount determined defence

Ukrainians are battling for the survival of their country as the more than month-long Russian onslaught has left cities in ruin, thousands dead, and more than ten million displaced amid the largest military confrontation in Europe since World War II.

The assault on Ukraine started on February 24 with an unprovoked invasion by land, sea, and air. But any Russian expectations of a swift takeover have been disappointed by a resolute Ukrainian defence ballasted by international humanitarian aid, weapons, and sanctions on Russia. Moscow announced on March 25 that it would shift its focus to the “liberation” of Ukraine’s pro-Russian eastern regions. [Reuters] [EiR Monthly March 2022] [TASS] [Le Monde] [Sky News] [New York Times]

But as Russian forces lay siege to Ukraine’s major cities, resorting to deadly air strikes and the first recorded use of hypersonic missiles in the conflict, Moscow looks set to go on inflicting damage across Ukraine. The capital Kyiv, Lviv in the west, Kharkiv in the east, Chernihiv and Slavutych in the north, and Mariupol in the south have been the most heavily affected. [Euro News] [AP] [Reuters]

The United Kingdom’s defence ministry said: “Russia will continue to use its heavy firepower on urban areas as it looks to limit its own already considerable losses, at the cost of further civilian casualties.” [CNN] [Reuters]

The United Nations has counted over 1,100 civilian deaths since the start of the war, with more than 100 children among the victims. Ukraine has estimated that USD 63 billion damage was inflicted on its infrastructure in the first month of the war. [Al Jazeera]

The bombing of a Mariupol theatre packed with some 1,200 sheltering civilians – including children and pregnant women – saw the deaths of 300 people, the worst single loss of life in the conflict to date. Hundreds more ended up buried in the rubble, while human remains have been strewn around the ruins of the city, which would connect annexed Crimea and Ukraine’s south-eastern pro-Russian regions if captured. [Sky News] [Reuters]

US President Joe Biden has branded his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin “a butcher” who “for the love of God, cannot stay in power” – ad lib remarks which triggered backtracking from the White House and calls for restraint from French President Emmanuel Macron, who says he is still trying to engage diplomatically with the Kremlin leader. [The New York Times] [Al Jazeera] [Business Insider] [L’Express] [Le Monde]

The first month of fighting has seen allegations of war crimes made against Russia: attacks on hospitals, firing on civilians as they flee via humanitarian corridors, blocking access to humanitarian aid, and allegedly abducting and relocating thousands of Ukrainian civilians to Russia, as well as attacking nuclear power plants. [Politico] [Reuters] [BBC] [ITV] [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera] [The Telegraph]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “In Europe a people is being destroyed, they are trying to destroy everything that is dear to us, what we live for.” [Reuters]

Zelensky has made a series of emotional video-call appeals to a string of world leaders, and has displayed a mix of gratitude and frustration at the amount of military aid supplied to Ukraine, asking that Western weapons “just collecting dust” be sent to his country’s aid, and that NATO implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine’s skies, from which bombs are raining down. [Al Jazeera] [CBS]

NATO – unwilling to intervene directly for fear of a larger confrontation with Russia – has amassed 40,000 troops in Eastern Europe, and on March 24 announced plans to add to its eastern-flank defences by deploying four additional battlegroups in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. Two days later, during a visit to Warsaw, Biden reiterated that the US would come to Poland’s defence in the event of a Russian attack on the NATO member state. [Euronews] [The New York Times] [TASS]

Polish Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski has warned: “If Russia wins this war, it will attack more countries.” [Al Jazeera]

As Russia continues to unload its arsenal on Ukraine, some observers have doubted President Putin’s motives in entertaining peace talks. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “If a country is serious about negotiations, it doesn’t indiscriminately bomb civilians that day.” [The Times]

Western countries have responded with further sanctions designed to isolate Russia and rupture its economy. In addition to seizing the assets of Kremlin-aligned oligarchs, sanction packages have strangled Russia’s markets, triggering hikes in inflation and consumer goods shortages not seen since the days of the Soviet Union. [CNN] [Bloomberg] [FT] [Politico]

Additional sanctions may look to exclude Russia from global discussion platforms – Biden has floated the idea of excluding Russia from the G20. [TASS] [FT] [The Guardian]

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said: “Russia will be utterly isolated by the end of this. That means political, economic, financial, sport, culture, and energy isolation. I foresee first an oil embargo and then step-by-step movement away from Russian gas.” [DW] [TASS]

Amid international tensions, Moldova on March 3 applied for NATO membership. But Ukraine’s membership is not on the cards as the Western alliance aims to avoid immediate confrontation with Putin. [DW] [Reuters]

However, Ukraine’s application for EU membership – which came four days after the Russian invasion – has been met with positivity, though an official EU response to the application bid is expected in the coming months. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, said: “Ukraine belongs to our European family.” [Foreign Policy] [Ukrinform] [Reuters]

Of the more than 4 million who have fled Ukraine, Poland has taken in over 2 million refugees. Moldova has seen the most refugee entries per head: the poorest nation in Europe has become both a destination and a transit hub for onward refugee movement into the rest of Europe. [Euronews] [rte.ie]

More than 10 million people – almost a quarter of Ukraine’s population – have now been displaced in and outside Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. [UNHCR] [Politico]

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Peace deal or escalation – what will happen next in Ukraine war?

Though the course of Russia’s war on Ukraine is hard to predict, possible scenarios range from a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow to a prolonged conflict that turns into an armed insurgency, with some worried that Russian aggression may spread outside Ukraine.

With Russian forces unable to advance as quickly as they had hoped, they could increase the use of indiscriminate attacks to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure and force civilians to continue to flee to neighbouring countries, economically burdening the west. [BBC News] [New York Times] 

A diplomatic conclusion to the conflict is also possible. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 27 that he was willing to accept his country remaining neutral as part of a peace deal, adding that such a decision would need to be made in a referendum by the Ukrainian people. [BBC News] [CNN] He added that any neutrality deal would require security guarantees from Western nations. Security pledges from the nuclear-armed UK, United States, and France could be “stronger than integration into NATO,” according to Mykola Davydiuk, a political analyst based in Kyiv. [The Guardian]

Zelensky has admitted that fully ousting Russia from Ukraine has become “impossible,” and that an attempt to achieve this “could lead to World War Three.” [Independent] 

Russia, meanwhile, announced it would scale back military operations near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, saying the move would “increase mutual trust” for peace negotiations. But Ukraine and its allies said this was a ploy designed to allow Russian forces to regroup and rearm following heavy losses. [Reuters]

Signalling a shift in strategy, the Russian defence ministry said on March 25 that the first phase of its military operation was largely complete, and that it could focus on its “main goal – the liberation of Donbas” after reducing the Ukrainian military’s combat potential. [CNN] [Sky News]

Some predict that the Russian military will try to surround and destroy the bulk of Ukraine’s forces in the east, where most of Ukraine’s troops have been deployed since a conflict against Russian-backed separatists began in 2014. [ABC News]

This could result in the country being split into two, creating a “North and South Korea in Ukraine,” according to Ukrainian intelligence chief General Kyrylo Budanov. [The Guardian] 

Meanwhile, some fear that Russian aggression could spread further west than Ukraine. Analysts have said that NATO member states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could be surrounded and cut off from the rest of the alliance. The three Baltic member states have only a 65km land corridor connecting them to Poland and the rest of NATO. [Reuters]

Russian President Vladimir Putin “could quickly seize the Suwalki Gap,” said retired German general Hans-Lothar Domroese, referring to the narrow corridor, which is flanked by Russian exclave Kaliningrad to the west and Russian-allied Belarus to the east. [Reuters]

To counter this possibility, NATO has begun boosting defence capabilities within its Baltic members and Poland, more than doubling the number of forces stationed there. [Reuters]

However, in an indication of disunity within NATO, member state Hungary has been criticised for not supporting sanctions against Russia and not allowing military aid to Ukraine to pass through its territory. Prime Minister Viktor Orban was accused of being “cosy with Putin” by Hungarian opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay. [Reuters] 

Meanwhile, Poland proposed a NATO peacekeeping mission to be stationed in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called it a “reckless” idea and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a NATO presence in Ukraine could result in a “direct clash” between the alliance and Russia. [Reuters]

Poland’s military allies also dismissed the proposal, with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg saying the alliance has a “responsibility to prevent this conflict from escalating beyond Ukraine.” [Notes From Poland]

Western governments have warned that Russia could begin using more devastating weapons, which has already been seen in its employment of hypersonic missiles. [New York Times] [Euronews]

There are also fears Moscow could resort to the use of nuclear weapons, after it placed its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert on February 27 and subsequently used rhetoric that NATO chief Stoltenberg called “dangerous” and “irresponsible.” [Euronews] [Independent] 

The use of tactical nuclear weapons – designed for use on a battlefield – is a particular concern for some. Their smaller explosive yield compared to larger strategic nuclear weapons make them “more usable” and means it could be “more likely that leaders could reach for them in a crisis,” according to Nina Tannenwald, senior lecturer in international relations at Brown University in the United States. [Euronews]

A less likely end to the war could come with Vladimir Putin being ousted from power in Russia. If the conflict continues to cost Russian lives and Western sanctions keep damaging the country’s economy, analysts say there is a possibility of Putin losing the support and confidence of Russia’s elite. “It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv,” said Sir Lawrence Freedman, a retired professor of war studies at King’s College, London. [BBC News]

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Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery derailed by Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has derailed post-Covid economic recovery in Europe, where governments from Berlin to Skopje are scrambling to stop growth slowing, stave off the spectre of recession and to counteract energy supply disruptions as the worst refugee crisis since World War II weighs on budgets across the continent.

The European Central Bank said the war would have a “significant negative impact” on the euro-area economy and cut its 2022 growth forecast by half a percentage point to 3.7 percent. Barclays PLC lowered its growth forecast for Europe this year to 3.5 percent from 4.1 percent in February, while JPMorgan took off nearly a full percentage from European growth this year, and now forecasts GDP will increase by 3.2 percent. [CNBC]

Europe, and most of the world, was on a path of economic recovery as the Covid-19 pandemic eased, but Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has derailed this. The war has already disrupted supply chains, weakened confidence and sent raw-material and energy prices soaring. [Wall Street Journal]

“The European economy was on a path of strong growth, supported by the rollout of our unprecedented recovery plan,” Paolo Gentiloni, European Economic Commissioner, said on March 22 in a speech at Oxford University. “The war will inevitably have an impact on the European economy and aggravate the challenges we were already facing.”

Some economists are now predicting a recession in Europe, particularly if countries impose a total ban on Russian energy imports. 

Eric Winograd, a senior economist at AllianceBernstein, puts recession chances at better than 50 percent. Christopher Pissarides, a professor at the London School of Economics, warned that a recession in Germany would “bring recession to Europe.” [London School of Economics][CNBC][Washington Post]

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Europe is a key destination for Russia’s energy exports. In 2021, Russia exported 49 percent of its crude oil and condensates and 74 percent of its natural gas to Europe. Most of the crude went to the Netherlands, Germany and Poland while the majority of Russia’s natural gas went to Germany, Turkey, Italy and France. [Forbes]

Countries with nuclear power plants are now rethinking policies that had aimed to end the use of atomic energy. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told nuclear industry bosses that the government wants the UK to get 25 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, while the Belgian government is taking steps to extend the use of its ageing nuclear plants. [The Guardian]

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is actively pursuing new energy supplies as it adjusts to potential disruptions caused by the war. Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it was “advisable to examine the entire energy strategy of our country without any prohibitions on thinking.” 

Jose Scheinkman, a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York, said a “recessionary effect will come mostly from banning gas imports, since the effect from oil will be partially diluted by reshuffling supplies.” [CNBC][London School of Economics] [Washington Post]

The strains of the war are already being felt across the continent. Videos posted on social media in Turkey showed people pushing each other in supermarkets to grab cans of sunflower oil out of fear that the price would increase or that the supply would run out. 

The Bulgarian government has tried to calm fears after thousands of people stockpiled cooking oil and flour amid fears across Europe of commodity shortages. North Macedonia on March 10 sent amendments to laws regulating Value Added Tax (VAT) and excise tax to parliament as the government seeks to decrease prices of food, fuel and oil derivatives.

“The budgetary impact of the crisis will also be important: providing economic and material support to Ukraine, assistance to the millions of refugees that have poured into Europe and continued support to the economy to deal with high energy prices are all set to weigh on member states' budgets,” Gentiloni said.

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Russia takes steps to counter crushing impact of Western economic sanctions

Russia is taking steps to counter crushing Western economic sanctions by pressuring countries to buy oil in roubles, threatening to localise management of foreign companies that suspend operations in the country, restricting foreign currency exchanges, and by offering tax breaks for some domestic companies.

President Vladimir Putin has instructed energy producer Gazprom to require “unfriendly’’ countries to pay for natural gas supplied through pipelines in roubles. A bill has been introduced to parliament that would allow Russian courts to appoint administrators for companies that cease operations and are at least 25 percent foreign-owned. If the owners refuse to resume operations or to sell, the company's shares could be auctioned off. [RBC][RBC]

The Bank of Russia banned from March 9 to September 9 the exchange of roubles for dollars and euros. Putin also signed a law on tax measures to support the economy in the face of sanctions, providing tax holidays for small- and medium-sized businesses, individual entrepreneurs and agricultural companies. [Vedomosti][NALOG]

The United States and its Western allies have imposed sanctions to penalise Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. They are considering additional sanctions to punish Russia for “atrocities” committed in Ukraine even as existing sanctions deal a powerful blow to the Russian economy

“The Russian economy will be devastated as a consequence of what we've already done, but we ... continue to consider further steps we can take,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on March 10. [CNN]

The UK imposed 65 new Russian sanctions on March 24 targeting a range of industries and individuals that are supporting Russia's invasion. The UK sanctioned Russian Railways and defence company Kronshtadt, the main producer of Russian drones, as well as the Wagner Group — the organisation of Russian mercenaries reportedly tasked with assassinating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the UK's Foreign Office said in a statement.

Six more banks are being targeted, including Alfa Bank whose co-founders include previously sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven and German Khan, and the world's largest diamond producer Alrosa. [GOVUK]

After the West piled unprecedented sanctions on Moscow following Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, Russia expanded the list of what it calls “unfriendly” countries. They include the United States, Australia, Canada, Britain, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, all EU member states and several others. [MSN]

Russia said on March 28 that it was preparing to restrict entry into the country for nationals of “unfriendly” countries.

“A draft presidential decree is being developed on retaliatory visa measures in response to the unfriendly actions of a number of foreign states,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in televised remarks. “This act will introduce a number of restrictions on entry into Russia.” [MSN]

On March 26, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that there was no reason to expect the country to default on its debt like it did during the country’s 1998 financial crisis. That year the Russian government devalued the rouble and defaulted on its debt. [RBC][RIA]

“One cannot set foot in the same river twice,” Medvedev said. “I had no relation to the government in 1998 and perceived it from the position of a person in civil society, if you want, from business. But our society, our state was much less protected.”

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EU activates ‘protection directive’ for first time to help Ukrainian refugees

The European Union has activated its Temporary Protection Directive for the first time – automatically giving asylum rights to Ukrainian refugees as the bloc faces the continent’s largest movement of refugees since World War II.

The Temporary Protection Directive automatically grants refugees from Ukraine residence permits, which will be valid for two years. During this time, they will have the right to travel and work within the bloc, and the same right to access education and social welfare as EU citizens. [The Guardian] [Euractiv] [Politico Europe] [Law Library]

During a meeting on March 3, the Council of the European Union voted unanimously to approve the directive. Ylva Johansson, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs, described the vote as “historic” – noting that in previous years refugee policy had been a “toxic or difficult” area. [Euronews] [Reuters]

Over 4 million people are estimated to have fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24 and most are seeking shelter in EU member states. In contrast to previous refugee crises, those fleeing from Ukraine are expected to be shared proportionally among the member states. [BBC News] [The Guardian] [Sky News]

An estimated 1.5 million of these refugees are children – which leads European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas to believe that education “is probably the most important urgent and concrete task ahead of us.” [Politico Europe]

Over 2 million refugees have crossed into neighbouring Poland, where volunteers, many from around the continent, have strained to accommodate them. The Polish government has been registering Ukrainians with the country’s PESEL system – effectively granting a residence permit to those who want one. [Euractiv] [France 24] [The Guardian] [Politico Europe]

With the numbers set to rise, burden sharing will become critical. In response to calls for aid, the European Commission has pledged EUR 3.4 billion in funds, mainly for Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, which are currently hosting the most refugees. [Politico Europe] [BBC News]

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As Turkish economy flounders, Erdogan performs balancing act between NATO and Russia

As the Turkish president balances his country’s NATO membership and close political ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his beleaguered party see the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to strengthen his political position at home as serious economic problems undermine his grip on power. 

Erdogan’s global and regional balancing act is being pursued with an eye on elections next year. The canny veteran politician, who has ruled Turkey for close to two decades with his Justice and Development Party (AKP), faces growing public anger over the cost of energy, food and other basic needs. [Al Monitor][EiR Monthly March 2022]

There has been a “newfound optimism among the AKP ranks” since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pinar Tremblay,  a columnist for Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse and a visiting scholar of political science at California State Polytechnic University, wrote on March 15. “AKP elites also see this as a God-sent opportunity to sweep the 2023 elections.” [Al Monitor]

The conflict gives Erdogan the opportunity to improve his ties with Western nations and secure economic benefits even as he tries to use his close ties with Putin to position himself as an important player in negotiating an end to the war. It also allows him to pressure the West to end sanctions on Turkey that have undermined economic growth.

Erdogan has cultivated a solid working relationship with Putin, despite differences over Syria and Turkey’s provision of armed drones to Ukraine, which government forces have been keen to put to deadly effect against the Russian invaders. The two men also share hostility toward the West and a common interest in ensuring their own impunity from criticism about their human rights record. [The Globalist] [Al Monitor]

At a NATO summit in Brussels in March, Erdogan called on his Russian counterpart to make an “honourable exit” from the war in Ukraine, adding that Putin must become an “architect for peace.” But the Turkish leader also said that he would not join the West as it imposes tougher sanctions against Moscow. [Middle East Eye]

“Let's not forget that we cannot put aside our relations with Russia,” Erdogan said. “You know, I explained this a long time ago, because today, if we take natural gas alone, about half of the natural gas we use comes from Russia.” At the same time, he demanded that his NATO allies lift sanctions on Ankara’s defence industry, saying that “veiled or open embargoes shouldn’t even be a topic among the allies.” [Middle East Eye][TASS] 

His role in negotiating an end to the Ukraine conflict has led to warmer ties with Western capitals, who had isolated Erdogan due to his crackdown on human rights and press freedoms, and support for radical Islamic groups in the Middle East. Under Erdogan, Turkey became militarily involved in Libya, Syria and Iraq and drew the ire of the European Union, particularly Greece, by ramping up patrols in the Eastern Mediterranean over a water rights dispute. [Euronews]

“Ankara is running out of red carpet as a deluge of foreign dignitaries knock at its door,” Turkish journalist Amberin Zaman wrote in Al Monitor. Erdogan has thrust himself back on to the world stage “just as many prophesied pariah status for the second longest-serving leader in modern Turkish history,” Zaman said. 

US President Joe Biden made his second-ever phone call to Erdogan since taking office in January 2021. During one week in March, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis all met with him. [Al Monitor]

“Turkey is a key ally,” Stoltenberg told private broadcaster NTV in an interview on March 11 in Antalya. “It is very important that two warring sides come together. We should thank Turkey for its efforts.” [Hurriyet Daily]

In a significant shift in policy, Israel and Turkey in March announced a new era in relations following more than a decade of diplomatic rupture as Herzog made a landmark visit to Ankara. Herzog’s trip, which included talks with Erdogan, was the first by an Israeli president since 2007, when the late Shimon Peres addressed the Turkish parliament. [Al Jazeera]

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also thanked Turkey for its diplomatic efforts to mediate between Ukraine and Russia but called on Turkey to impose sanctions against Russia.  Rutte also pointed out the Importance of Turkey for the defence of the eastern flank of NATO.  [Daily Sabah] [The Statesman] [Al-Monitor].[Al-Monitor]

“We would favour all countries joining the sanctions against Russia, but we understand that Turkey has geographical considerations to take into account,” he said. 

But it may become increasingly difficult for Erdogan to maintain his balancing act as Western nations pressure him to do more to align against Putin. He also may be unable to improve the Turkish economy quickly enough before next year’s election as the country battles with inflationary pressure. [EiR Monthly March 2022]

“Erdogan is in a sticky spot because on the one hand he needs to improve the economy dramatically but also has a major role to play in the shifting geopolitics of the region,” Dr. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor at Gulf State Analytics, said. “The United States and Europe want to see Turkey behave properly and clearly. With Russia's current behaviour, Ankara needs to look West.”

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China walks difficult line between Moscow and the West

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stretches beyond a month, China is treading a difficult line between Russia and the West amid pressure from the United States and European Union not to support Moscow’s war.

US President Joe Biden threatened China with “consequences” should it lend military aid to Russia. European politicians have also warned that Chinese support for Russia “would have major implications for Europe’s relations with Beijing.” [Reuters] [Politico Europe]

China has been cultivating stronger relations with Russia in recent years. On February 4, the two nations heralded a “no-limits partnership”, and said there were no “forbidden” areas of cooperation. [ECFR] [Bloomberg]

According to Reuters, the deal marked the most detailed and assertive statement of Russian and Chinese resolve to work together to build a new international order based on their view of human rights and democracy. [Reuters]

President Xi Jinping’s government has labelled Russia as the “most important strategic partner” and denounced the West’s imposition of sanctions on Moscow. However, China has not yet made large financial and economic endorsements to the Russian government, as it does not wish to lose its stakes in trade arrangements with the EU. [Associated Press] [CFR]

Since the invasion began on February 24, China has described sanctions against Russia as “outrageous” and warned that the country was being pushed “into a corner”. [Reuters]

However, while it has not condemned Russia, China has maintained a neutral position on the war in Ukraine. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, described his country’s motivations as “maintaining peace” and being “on the right side of history.” [Reuters][Al Jazeera]

Commentators from within China, like Zhang Guihong, Professor of international relations at Fudan University, argue that “sovereignty and territorial integrity” are a core element of Chinese foreign policy and may restrain potential support for Russia. [Financial Times]

While trade ties are deep between Russia and China, they pale in comparison to the economic links between China and Russia’s opponents, particularly the United States and the European Union – which may temper any support China is willing to offer.

Dr Peter Hefele, policy director at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels, argued that the effects of the war in Ukraine on the Sino-Russian partnership will be great – but are yet to be seen. As sanctions have pushed Russia into a deeper reliance on China, Dr Hefele argues that Beijing will strengthen its position in an already “imbalanced” partnership. [EUobserver]

Dr Hefele also claimed China had been surprised by the “speed, scope, and effectiveness” of Western sanctions against Russia. The result, he argues, is that Russia has upset the “stable international environment” China believes is essential to its own prosperity. [EUobserver]

Janka Oertel, a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that the partnership between the two countries will remain strong – even if direct military assistance may be a step too far. [ECFR]

However, there are already concrete signs of China’s uncertainty on the invasion of Ukraine.

Sinopec, one of China’s largest state-owned enterprises and Asia’s most powerful oil refiner, announced that talks for a major investment with Russian petrochemical giant Sibur had been suspended. Chinese enterprises like Sinopec are expected to “rigidly follow Beijing's foreign policy in this crisis,” Reuters cited a state oil company executive as saying. Given that the deal was estimated to be potentially worth USD 500 million, this suspension is quite telling. [Reuters]

Meanwhile, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, where China is a founding member and holds significant influence, has put investment in Russia “on hold and under review”, citing “the war in Ukraine”. [Reuters] [Financial Times] [CaixinGlobal]

China is also yet to allow Russia to convert the latter’s yuan reserves, worth USD 90 billion, into dollars or euros – a move which could aid Russia in getting around Western sanctions. [CNN] [Nikkei Asia]

The decision will impact two projects in Russia worth USD 800 million to improve road network connectivity in key economic corridors and to support the rail transportation service. [BollyInside]

While the Chinese government is willing to defend its geopolitical alliance with Russia, it is still unclear how far China will go to help Russia economically.

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Pope calls for peace in Ukraine, saying ‘this is not just a military operation’

Pope Francis has appealed for peace in Ukraine and rejected Russia's use of the term “special military operation” to describe its invasion of its western neighbour.

In a weekly address to crowds in St Peter's Square, the spiritual leader of the world’s Roman Catholics said on March 6: “In Ukraine, rivers of blood and tears are flowing. This is not just a military operation but a war which sows death, destruction and misery.” [CBS News] 

In an unusual move, the pontiff also said that two Catholic cardinals had travelled to Ukraine to help those in need. [Reuters] One is the papal almsgiver, who was sent with aid, and the other is the head of the papal office which deals with migration, charity, justice and peace. [Politico/AP]

Pope Francis has also called for humanitarian corridors to be set up amid the conflict, which has seen millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine, and others wanting to flee but not doing so for fear of coming under fire from Russian soldiers.

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British PM Johnson says Putin commits war crimes, drawing analogy to Serbia’s Milosevic

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson accused the Russian government of committing war crimes in Ukraine and welcomed an investigation by the International Criminal Court. [Politico]

 PM Johnson said he saw a “close analogy” between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behaviour “and the last years of Slobodan Milosevic,” the president of Serbia within Yugoslavia from 1989 to 1997, since both individuals based their attacks on a “nationalist cause.’’ [Welt]

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Western media halt coverage from Russia as law threatens 15 years’ jail for ‘fake news’ 

Major Western news outlets are halting their coverage from Russia after a new law in that country threatens 15 years of imprisonment for disseminating “false information” amid the invasion of Ukraine. [The Guardian]

Bloomberg News, American television broadcasters CNN and CBS, as well Canadian outlet CBC have temporarily suspended the work of their journalists inside Russia. [The Guardian] [Bloomberg]

After halting coverage on March 4, the BBC resumed English-language reporting from Russia four days later, saying in a statement: “We have considered the implications of the new legislation alongside the urgent need to report from inside Russia. After careful deliberation we have decided to resume English-language reporting from Russia.” [The Guardian]

The State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, adopted on March 4 a law introducing prison sentences of up to 15 years for “public dissemination of deliberately false information about the use of the armed forces of the Russian Federation.” [Reuters]

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian outlets have been forbidden from calling it an “act of war,” “attack” or an “invasion”, and have been ordered to use the term “special operation” instead. They are required to use information solely provided by “official Russia sources”, incurring censorship or shutdown otherwise. [Euronews] [RSF]

Independent media outlets stand to suffer the most. Russia’s media regulator has blocked over 30 Russian and Ukrainian independent media sites, as well as Russian-language BBC and Deutsche Welle websites. On March 10, Ekho Moskvy, one of the country’s oldest independent radio broadcasters, closed while the most popular independent TV channel, Dozhd, suspended its broadcasts. The next day, Radio Svoboda, the Russian branch of Radio Free Europe, and Meduza, an international investigative outlet, were outlawed by the Russian media regulator. [Euronews]

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Swathe of Russian diplomats expelled in Central and Eastern Europe as tensions grow

Central and Eastern European and Baltic countries have expelled a string of Russian diplomats suspected of spying amid heightened tensions due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The Polish Foreign Ministry said on March 23 that 45 Russian diplomats, around half of the total Russian embassy staff in Warsaw, were given notice that they had five days to leave the country. Spokesman Lukasz Jasina told reporters that Russia was now considered “hostile to Poland.” Referring to the over 2 million Ukrainian refugees who have fled to Poland, he added: “The illegal activities of these diplomats can also pose a threat to those people who left their country to flee the war and found protection in our country.” [Aljazeera]

Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski announced in a social media post: “Poland expelled 45 Russian spies pretending to be diplomats. With full consistency and determination, we are breaking up the agents of the Russian secret services in our country.” [DW] [AP]

The Russian ambassador to Poland, Sergey Andreyev, announced that despite such “groundless accusations”, bilateral diplomatic relations between the two countries would continue, adding: “The embassies remain, the ambassadors remain.”

A week earlier, Bulgaria expelled 10 Russian diplomats for conducting “activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations,” the foreign ministry said in a statement released while US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin was in the country. Over the previous three years, Bulgaria expelled 11 Russian representatives because of similar espionage allegations. [Euractiv].

Meanwhile, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have ejected 10 Russian representatives in total because of security concerns or “in solidarity with Ukraine.” The Estonian foreign ministry said that Russian diplomats had “directly and actively undermined Estonia’s security and spread propaganda justifying Russia’s military action.” [Euractiv]

In Slovakia, Russian ambassador Igor Bratchikov was summoned by the foreign ministry on March 30 and notified that the Russian mission was to be reduced by 35 staff, and a cap introduced on Russian passport holders permitted at the mission. Estimates from the SME daily put total Russian diplomatic staff at around 70 members, higher than official count of just 29.

In another development, the Slovak centre-right SaS party has requested the country’s prosecutor general to move to dissolve the neo-Nazi L’SNS party and the far-right non-parliamentary Republika movement. MP Miroslav Ziak said that evidence from law enforcement agencies pointed to the groupings being funded by Russia and added that they were suspected of “mediating links to Russian spies.” [Aktuality] [FT] [Balkan Insight]

The prosecutor general told the TASR news agency that his office “did not act on the basis of appeals from political representatives, and would not respond to the call of the SaS.” A poll conducted for broadcaster Na Telo TV between February 22 and March 1 showed that 80 percent of Slovaks deemed the L’SNS party as unacceptable when asked whether they would accept the L’SNS in a future coalition government. Only 15 percent said a coalition with the party was acceptable. [Aktuality]

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US to help wean EU off Russian energy as prices rocket

The United States has pledged to increase exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union in an effort to help the bloc wean itself off Russian fossil fuel, as the European Commission plans to slash such imports from Russia.

US President Joe Biden announced on March 25 that Washington would deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to the EU this year. Meanwhile, the European Commission will work with EU countries so that they can receive some 50 bcm of additional American LNG until at least 2030. Russia delivers 155 bcm to the bloc each year, accounting for some 40 percent of its gas needs.[Politico] [Reuters] [BBC]

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a surge in energy prices over concerns about the reliability of supplies. According to German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, since the war began, gas prices have risen by 100 percent and coal prices have surged by 200 percent. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

However, American LNG plants are already producing at maximum capacity. A senior US official said the American effort to help Europe will involve arrangements with allies around the world, both producers and consumers, to route shipments to Europe. [EU observer] [Reuters]

In a major shift to its stance on energy security, the European Commission unveiled plans on March 8 to reduce EU gas imports from Russia by two thirds by 2023, and for the bloc to become fully independent of Russian gas, oil and coal by 2027. [Euronews] [Al Jazeera]

As Russian forces continued their onslaught on Ukraine, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU “cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us.” [Al Jazeera] In addition to gas, EU countries import 27 percent of their oil and 46 percent of their coal from Russia. [Reuters]

In April the Commission will introduce a non-binding proposal calling for 90 percent of gas storage capacity to be filled up by September 30, or about three times the bloc’s current reserve level. [Euronews]

Meanwhile, in a move that caused European gas prices to surge by 30 percent at one point, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 23 that Moscow would require “unfriendly countries” - those that have imposed crippling financial sanctions on Russia - to pay for gas in roubles instead of euros or dollars. Energy ministers from the Group of Seven industrialised nations rejected those demands, agreeing they were “a unilateral and clear breach of existing contracts”, Germany’s Robert Habeck said. [Reuters][The Spectator]

Putin announced on March 31 that he had signed a decree requiring foreign buyers to pay for Russian gas in roubles from April 1, and that contracts would be halted if such payments were not made. In order to purchase Russian natural gas, buyers needed to open rouble accounts in Russian banks, Putin said, adding: “It is from these accounts that payments will be made for gas.” [Reuters]

In an attempt to lower prices and protect European consumers, EU leaders meeting at a Brussels summit on March 25 announced plans to purchase energy jointly. The European Commission is also set to evaluate ways of reforming the electricity market, and will submit proposals in May. Electricity prices in the EU are currently set by the price of the most expensive fuel needed to meet demand, in this instance gas. [CER] [FT]

Along with Germany, fellow EU members Italy, Hungary and Austria are the most exposed to a Russian gas shutoff. Hungary and Bulgaria are among countries opposed to an energy embargo. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on March 8: “While we condemn Russia’s armed offensive and we also condemn the war, we will not allow Hungarian families to be made to pay the price.” [Euractiv]

Meanwhile, Poland, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania are proponents of a ban on Russian fuel, arguing that more should be done, and that the West should be ready to bear the price of retaliation. [Euractiv] [Reuters]

Poland announced on March 30 that it would end all imports of Russian energy by the end of the year. On the same day, Habeck raised Germany's gas-supplies warning to the first level of alert of a three-level energy rationing system. German law dictates that this level means suppliers and networks must prepare for contingencies to lower gas demand and increase supply. [Politico] Germany imports 55 percent of its gas from Russia, and has previously strongly opposed sanctions on Russian energy exports, despite pressure from Washington and Kyiv. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

Earlier, US President Joe Biden on March 8 announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas. The US is not highly dependent on Russia for energy supplies, with only 3 percent of its total crude oil imports coming from Russia. [Al Jazeera]

Ukrainian leaders have been calling on Western nations to sanction Russia’s oil-and-gas sector. Energy exports account for 40 percent of Russian budget revenues. [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera]

Amid the Ukraine crisis, the EU has been seeking new gas providers, holding talks with Egypt, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and South Korea among others about increased deliveries. [EiR Monthly March 2022]

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United Kingdom will phase out oil imports from Russia by end of 2022

 The UK will phase out oil imports from Russia by the end of the year and is considering doing the same for natural gas in response to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. 

The reduction in supplies is expected to increase prices for fuel, raising the cost of living in the UK, with Russia supplying 8 percent of the UK’s demand for oil and 4 percent of its natural gas demand, according to the British government. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he will seek to increase domestic gas and oil production, though he said he remained committed to the UK’s target of becoming net-zero in its emissions. [MoneyControl] [Guardian]

The British government’s decision follows a move by the US on March 8 to ban oil imports from Russia. [Gov.UK][MoneyControl]

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Russia’s war in Ukraine throws into question long-standing ties between West and Persian Gulf oil producers

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is throwing into question long-standing alliances that have underpinned the global order since the end of World War II. 

This is evident in the oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf, where traditional US and Western allies have offered a muted response to the war in comparison to the unified front of European allies. The Saudi government’s unwillingness to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression has exposed “cracks” in its partnership with America. [Foreign Policy]  

Underscoring this, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declined to take a call from US President Joe Biden, who has called on the world’s largest oil supplier to raise production, despite speaking with Putin a week before the American president’s outreach. United Arab Emirates leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed also declined a call from Biden. Both countries said they would not produce more oil than agreed on by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). [The Hill]

“The Saudi government has come under increasing pressure from President Biden to use its leverage to lower prices,” David Ottaway, Middle East Fellow at the Wilson Center, wrote on March 2. “Saudi Arabia has decided to side with Russia and spurn US cries for help as the Ukraine crisis sends the price of oil sky high, even though it is the only country with sufficient spare oil production to stop the spiralling to its highest level in eight years.” [The Wilson Center]

The US and Saudi Arabia have been close partners since the end of World War II, a relationship that was strengthened during the Trump administration due to mutual interest around energy supplies, the isolation of Iran - a rival of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, and military defence contracts.

The United States has traditionally been the top arms supplier to Saudi Arabia. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Saudi Arabia was the main recipient of US arms transfers in 2016–20, accounting for 24 percent of American arms exports. [RFE/RL]

Under the Biden administration, those historic ties have frayed.  

American officials told the Wall Street Journal that US ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been strained over the Biden administration's lack of support in the war in Yemen and the revived negotiations concerning the Iran nuclear deal. During Biden’s election campaign, he described Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” in response to the 2018 killing of dissident Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia is regularly criticised in Europe for its human rights record. [The Hill]

After Saudi Arabia executed 81 people on March 12 in the largest mass application of capital punishment in the country since 2019, the European Union said this “represents another worrying increase in the trend” of using the death penalty by the authorities there.  

“As a matter of principle, the European Union is strongly opposed to the death penalty under all circumstances,” the EU said in a statement. “It is a cruel and inhumane punishment, which fails to act as a deterrent to crime and represents an unacceptable denial of human dignity and integrity.”

With oil supplies under threat due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Biden wanted to repair America's relations with Gulf producers. During a trip to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that “the world must wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons and starve Putin’s addiction to oil and gas,” stressing that Britain will work with the two countries to ‘’ensure regional security, support the humanitarian relief effort and stabilise global energy markets for the longer term.” [GOVUK]

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate have not been receptive.

The two countries see “an opportunity for themselves in the crisis,” Anchal Vohra, a columnist for Foreign Policy and a freelance TV correspondent and commentator on the Middle East based in Beirut, wrote on March 24. “The message to the United States and the West more generally was unmistakable: The Saudis have too much leverage to be taken for granted in geopolitics or to be treated as an object of continuous criticism for violating human rights.” [Foreign Policy]

As ties have frayed with Washington and capitals in Europe, Saudi Arabia has moved closer to Russia. 

Last August, the two countries struck a military cooperation agreement at an arms expo outside Moscow. Saudi Deputy Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman announced on Twitter on August 24 that he signed the agreement with Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin “aimed at developing joint military cooperation between the two countries.” [RFE/RL]

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “re- committed to working with Russia,” Ottaway wrote. “Saudi Arabia has shown less and less interest in cooperating with the United States on oil matters as it has become a rival oil exporter to the Saudi kingdom.”

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German gov’t should rethink ban on new oil, gas drilling in North Sea: finance minister 

Germany should rethink its ban on new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, the country’s finance minister has said, as Europe’s largest economy looks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy imports after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. [Reuters] [FAZ]

“Against the changed geo-political background, I think it is advisable to examine the entire energy strategy of our country without any prohibitions on thinking,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner said. Germany receives nearly two thirds of its natural gas and half of its oil from Russia. [Süddeutsche] [Reuters]

The country is looking for alternative energy sources, which includes building its first terminal for liquified natural gas imports, but for a transitional period, Germany will still depend on oil and gas, Lindner added. [Reuters] [FAZ]

An agreement between the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the Liberal Party (FDP), which together form Germany’s governing coalition, prohibits new permits for drilling in the North Sea. 

Oliver Krischer of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, and a member of the Green Party, said he was generally open to the idea and that “everything has to be considered.”

Conditions under which new drilling could be possible should be checked but “the additional amounts of oil and gas for the coming winter are fairly limited,” Krischer added. [Süddeutsche] [FAZ]

The environmental NGO Greenpeace criticised Lindner’s proposal, saying that “even if all of the known oil deposits in the German North Sea were to be exploited, it would only meet the German oil demand for two months.”

The oil deposits are in the protected area of the Wadden Sea and “possible accidents would have disastrous consequences”, Greenpeace said, appealing for a quicker development of renewable energies. [Süddeutsche]

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Germany: State bank KfW, Holland’s utility Gasunie sign MOU to build first LNG-terminal

German state bank KfW and Dutch gas network operator Gasunie signed a memorandum of understanding to build Germany’s first liquified natural gas terminal in response to energy supply disruptions and higher prices across Europe due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The eight-billion-cubic-metre regasification terminal will be jointly owned by Germany and government-run Gasunie with operations scheduled to start in 2024. European Union regulations must also be addressed before it starts operations. [Euractiv] [Spiegel]

The goal is to “reduce dependence on Russian imports as quickly as possible,” Robert Habeck, German minister for energy and climate protection, said. “The terminal thus increases supply security and contributes to greater independence from pipeline-bound natural gas imports in North-Western Europe.”  [Euractiv] 

Europe is rushing to reduce its dependence on Russia for energy as it braces for potential disruptions to critical natural gas supplies as Russia's war in Ukraine pushes prices to new highs. German annual imports of Russian gas are estimated to be around 140 billion cubic metres. [AP][Reuters]

Natural gas prices hit a record in March as restrictions on oil and gas were increasingly treated as a possibility. The price of gas is 10 times what it was at the start of 2021. 

Some have questioned whether the terminal will actually help. “It remains unclear how a terminal is helpful at all given long construction times,” Constantin Zerger, energy and climate protection lead at environmental NGO Deutsche Umwelthilfe, tweeted. An 80 kilometre pipeline network would have to be constructed for the terminal to become operational. [Euractiv] 

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Norway-Poland gas pipeline to be ready in late 2022: Polish PM 

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced that the Baltic Pipe, a gas pipeline under construction to connect Norway and Poland via Denmark, will be ready for shipments in October or November this year. After a starting period in which it will only be partially operational, the pipeline will be able to transport 10 billion cubic metres of Norwegian gas a year from January 2023. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given new impetus to many European countries’ efforts to diversify their energy supplies and wean themselves off dependency on Moscow. Russia’s Gazprom currently supplies Poland with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year, which makes up half the country’s annual consumption. However, the contract expires at the end of 2022 and Poland will not renew it. Instead, it aims to replace Russian supplies with the Baltic Pipe. [Euractiv] [Reuters 1]

The project received permission from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency in 2019 but construction was put on hold in 2021 after concerns were raised that the pipeline would harm or destroy breeding grounds of protected animals. After a nine-month delay, Danish government-owned operator Energinet has obtained a new environmental permit. [Reuters 2]

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French president says some EDF assets should be nationalised to bolster energy independence

French President Emmanuel Macron has said some assets of Electricite de France SA (EDF) should be nationalised as part of his plans to bolster the country’s energy independence. [Bloomberg]

“Regarding  activities that are the most a question of national sovereignty, it must be considered that the state should retake the capital” of EDF, Macron said as he presented his election manifesto in Paris on March 17. That would be combined with “a broader reform of the leading French electricity company.”  [Bloomberg]

The French government has contributed EUR 2.6 billion to EDF's most recent capital increase as a public display of support. [La Tribune] [Reuters]

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Italy completing first offshore wind farm in effort to cut reliance on Russian gas 

Italy is close to finishing the construction of its first offshore wind farm as it tries to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

The Beleolico facility is located 100 metres from the coastline in the southern Italian port of Taranto. It will consist of 10 turbines with a capacity of 30 MW. It will be able to produce 58,000 MWh – the equivalent of the annual energy needs of 60,000 people. The authorities are hoping the farm will be operational in May.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Italy has pledged to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels from Russia. In total, 45 percent of the gas Italians use is imported from Russia. The government in Rome wants to lay an emphasis on renewable energy, which at present makes up 20 percent of Italy’s total energy consumption. The government has also approved six new onshore wind farms. [euronews] [The Local] [France 24]

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Russia seeks Indian investment in its oil and gas sector as sanctions bite

Against the backdrop of biting sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is keen to increase its oil and petroleum exports to India and to attract investment from Asia’s third-largest economy in its oil sector. [Reuters]

That was the message Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak conveyed to India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri on March 11. Novak also said Russia expects both countries to continue cooperation on civilian nuclear power, including building new units at a nuclear power plant in the southern Indian town of Kudankulam.

The talks lend further credence to reports suggesting that India is considering taking up an offer to buy discounted crude oil from Russia, which has lost major buyers in recent weeks. 

The United States has banned Russian oil imports, and the United Kingdom said it would phase them out by the end of the year.  [The Straits Times] 

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Finland activates  Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor, years behind schedule 

Finland has activated its Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor, around 13 years behind schedule. The reactor, which was connected to the power grid for the first time on March 11, is intended to reduce the country’s energy dependence on Russia, Sweden and Norway, to lower power prices, and help to achieve carbon neutrality goals. Olkiluoto 3, which runs alongside two other reactors, is expected to meet 14 percent of Finland’s electricity demand. 

The reactor was originally scheduled to start operating in 2009 but this was delayed because of technical issues, legal disputes, and cost overruns. Now it is one of the world’s most expensive buildings, with a total cost estimated at EUR 11 billion instead of the originally planned EUR 3 billion. 

Olkiluoto 3 is the first pressurised water reactor operating in Europe. Two such reactors came online in China in 2018 and 2019. Two others, in France and Britain, are scheduled to start in 2023 and 2026. 

Europe remains in two minds about nuclear power. Germany is phasing out such plants, while France and Britain still use nuclear energy and even plan new projects. [yle] [Reuters] [Deutsche Welle]

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Belgium: Federal Government decides to extend operations at two nuclear reactors until 2035

Belgium’s federal government has decided to extend the operations of two nuclear reactors for 10 years, postponing a decision to stop the production of nuclear power, which was agreed upon in September 2020, as Brussels moves to ensure the stable supply of energy. 

Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said it was important to safeguard energy sovereignty amid “years of uncertainty” as the driving factor behind the decision. De Croo and Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten will start talks with Engie SA, a French multinational utility, to expand the plants’ operations until 2035. [BrusselsTimes] [DeMorgen] [RTBFInfo] [VRTNews]

Belgium currently has seven reactors, including four in Doel and three in Tihange, that started operations between 1975 and 1985. The country’s Nuclear Exit Act drafted in 2003 had imposed the gradual closure of all reactors between 2015 and 2025. 

The decision was criticised by German Environment Minister Steffi Lemke. Steffi voiced concern about the continued operation of Belgium’s Tihange 3 reactor, saying that the concerns of the population around Aachen, a German town about 80 km from Tihange, need to be taken into consideration.[BrusselsTimes]

Belgium has allocated EUR 1.2 billion to finance a new energy transition plan, which includes producing 30 percent of electricity from renewable sources and cutting fossil fuel consumption by 15 percent by 2030. 

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Denmark goes for green hydrogen

Denmark has announced it aims to build six gigawatts of electrolysis capacity as part of a plan to convert renewable power into green hydrogen as the country tries to improve its energy security and wean itself off fossil fuels. [Reuters]

The hydrogen will be made utilising power from offshore wind farms and is seen as a key part of a plan to help decarbonise the country’s industry, although the technology still remains costly. [Yale]

Danish lawmakers agreed on subsidies worth around EUR 168 million to make green hydrogen more commercially viable.

The hydrogen will be processed to produce e-fuels that can be used directly in trucks and other heavy transport. Such a project could become Europe’s largest of its kind once it starts producing in the middle of the decade. [Recharge]

Danish Climate and Energy Minister Dan Jorgensen said: “We have had an economy which has been based primarily on oil but in the future it will be based on hydrogen. This will help us to become independent of fossil fuels.” [Reuters]

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British PM Johnson meets with UAE, Saudi Arabia crown princes to discuss defence, energy security 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met on March 16 with the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed al Nayhan, in Abu Dhabi  where they  agreed on the need to bolster strong security, defence and intelligence cooperation in the face of growing global threats.

The leaders welcomed the longstanding partnership between the two countries and discussed opportunities to increase collaboration between the UK and UAE on energy security, green technology, and trade, the Prime Minister’s office said in a statement. [GOVUK]

After meeting with the UAE Crown Prince, Johnson flew to Riyadh to hold talks with Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The two agreed during Johnson’s visit to collaborate to maintain stability in the energy market and continue the transition to renewable and clean technology. [GOVUK]

They also committed to boost cooperation in defence, security, trade and culture, welcoming a new UK-Saudi Strategic Partnership Agreement and a major investment announced by the Alfanar Group in green aviation fuel in Teesside, UK. [GOVUK]

During his visit, Johnson set out the UK’s view that nations are facing a fundamentally changed world order following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. “The brutal and unprovoked assault President Putin has unleashed on Ukraine will have far-reaching consequences for the world, well beyond Europe’s borders,” Johnson said. “The world must wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons and starve Putin’s addiction to oil and gas.” [GOVUK]

He added that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are key international partners in that effort. “We will work with them to ensure regional security, support the humanitarian relief effort and stabilise global energy markets for the longer term,” he said. [GOVUK]

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German officials intensify calls for Schroder to cut ties to Russia after talks with Putin

German officials have intensified their calls for former chancellor Gerhard Schroder to cut his ties with Russia after he travelled to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin to allegedly discuss the war in Ukraine. 

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and leaders of the Social Democrat party have publicly scolded Schroder for keeping his positions at Russian companies and for his ties with Putin. Schroder is a long-time friend of the Russian president and has senior roles at Russian gas companies Rosneft and Gazprom. 

Schroder’s business ties “are more than a private matter” since he is a former head of state, Scholz said on March 3. Social Democrat Party leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil said the same day that they expected a “prompt reply” to their demands and would take further measures if he fails to comply. [Deutsche Welle] [FAZ] [Euractiv]

Schroder, a Social Democrat, served as German chancellor from 1998 to 2005. He has since enjoyed a lucrative business career thanks to his Russian energy roles, according to Politico. He started a role at Gazprom in 2005, when he became the head of the administrative board at newly founded Nord Stream AG. 

He is the head of the administrative board at Nord Stream 2 AG and head of the supervisory board at Rosneft. The ex-chancellor is set to be confirmed as head of the supervisory board at Gazprom in June. [Politico Europe] [SWR2] [Süddeutsche] [Politico Europe] 

Fierce criticism of Schroder’s ties with Russia erupted when he travelled to Moscow without informing German government officials about his plans. Scholz declined to comment on the trip when asked by reporters at a summit of European leaders in France. [Politico Europe] [Tagesschau] [Reuters] [FAZ]

Klingbeil, though, said that Schroder’s trip could be positive if it helped stop the war in Ukraine. [Spiegel]

Ukrainian politicians have allegedly asked Schroder to act as a mediator because of his relationship with Putin. He met with a Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul on March 7 then went to Moscow on March 9, according to Politico. [Politico Europe]

Separately, a criminal complaint was filed on March 7 with the public prosecutor’s office in Hannover for crimes against humanity in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Schroder was named in the complaint for maintaining his positions with Russian companies after the invasion. [Zeit] [Welt]

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German firm in Philippines LNG project

German manufacturing firm MAN Energy Solutions is partnering with the Philippines Department of Energy in an effort to establish the Philippines as a regional hub for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). 

The two parties have signed a memorandum of understanding to study the feasibility of facilities for the import and regasification of LNG, including developing small-scale manufacturing capabilities on the Visayas and Mindanao islands. [Manila Times]

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EU’s largest parties to push for pan-European MPs

A group of the largest parties in the European Parliament will begin a bid to introduce pan-European seats in the bloc’s legislature, after reaching an agreement on a proposed electoral law change. The move is seen as an attempt to increase integration within the EU.

The liberal political group Renew Europe, the left-wing Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the Greens/EFA political group, and the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) reached a compromise plan to introduce 28 pan-European MEPs. These groups make up a majority within the European Parliament. 

MEP Damian Boeselager, whose pan-European Volt party is part of the Greens/EFA group, on March 9 said that the compromise would allow for a second vote on ballots as soon as the 2024 European Parliament elections. On a two-list system, voters would first select a national party and then choose MEPs from “European parties with the same programme and candidates” across the whole bloc. A total of 28 pan-European MEPs would be elected. 

To meet eligibility criteria, pan-European MEPs would need to either collect signatures from 0.01 percent of voters in seven member states or build coalitions with parties in seven member states. According to Boeselager, this system would give new European parties an opportunity to develop. 

In an attempt to ensure diversity, the system also requires parties running in the pan-European vote to either field an equal number of male and female candidates or to have “zipped” lists – alternating male and female candidates.

In a move seen by some as an attempt to limit Germany’s power in European Parliament elections, the agreement requires pan-European parties in that country to attain 3.5 percent of the vote – a threshold not imposed on any other EU member state.

The proposal will need approval from the European Parliament’s Committee of Constitutional Affairs, the European Parliament through a plenary voting session, and the Council of the European Union before it can become law. [Euractiv]

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European Parliament condemns Serbia for selling arms to Myanmar military junta

The European Parliament strongly condemned Serbia, alongside Russia and China, for the sale of arms to Myanmar’s military junta in a draft resolution proposed on March 8, a year after the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) was ousted in a coup by the country’s military. [European Parliament]

The resolution, which addressed crimes against humanity committed in Myanmar since the coup, called the countries who sold arms to the new regime “directly responsible for the atrocities committed with those arms.” There have been reports of serious atrocities and human rights violations committed by the junta, including mass killings and arbitrary arrests. [FT]

Serbia is named in the resolution as having “authorised rockets and artillery for export to the Myanmar military.” Documents from the Serbian trade ministry revealed that in January and February last year, 2,524 80 mm unguided rockets were delivered to Myanmar from Serbia. [Balkan Insight]

An investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, working alongside Myanmar Witness, the Center for Investigative Journalism in Serbia, CINS and Lighthouse Reports found that the rockets were delivered in two shipments, one on January 23 and the other on February 9. [Balkan Insight]

Serbia and Myanmar have diplomatic ties which stretch back to the 1950s, when Serbia was part of Yugoslavia. They were both founders of the Non-Aligned Movement. In recent years Serbia continued to supply arms to Myanmar since 2018 as crimes against the Rohingya people were being widely documented. [UN News]

Meanwhile, rights group Justice for Myanmar said on March 27 that subsidiaries of Russia’s largest defence conglomerate, Rostec, have continued selling arms to Myanmar after the February 2021 coup.

(nw/gc)

Italy annuls sale of military drone firm to Chinese investors 

The Italian government on March 10 annulled the sale of a military drone company to Chinese investors. An investigation launched last year concluded that the sale of a majority stake in Alpi Aviation should have been reported to the government under a so-called “golden power” regulation that aims at protecting strategically important assets in Italy. 

Alpi Aviation is an Italian-based light aircraft manufacturer. The Chinese investors who bought a 75 percent stake in it in 2018 are China Corporate United Investment Holding and CRRC Capital Holding, which are in turn controlled by the Management Committee of Wuxi Liyuan Economic Development Zone and the state-owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC).  [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

The “golden power” is a tool established in 2012 to protect Italy’s national interests by limiting foreign direct investment and corporate transactions involving Italian strategic assets in defence, national security, infrastructure and, as of recently, hi-tech sectors. 

Authorities have completely blocked sales or mergers only six times, five of them in cases involving Chinese investors. [Diritto Bancario]

(aml/pk)

Japan to reconsider strategic relations with Russia as tensions grow

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, Japan is considering a revision of Russia’s status from “partner” to “national security challenge” in its National Security Strategy, which is to be reviewed at the end of the year.

As Tokyo imposed sanctions on Moscow, Russia’s foreign ministry declared on March 21 that it was withdrawing from negotiations with Japan aiming to pave the way for a peace treaty between the two countries to formally end World War II. Moreover, Russia announced that it was ending visa-free visits by Japanese citizens to the Kuril Islands that are claimed by both Tokyo and Moscow. [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty]

On March 24, Japan, along with France, halted their investments in Arctic LNG 2, a USD 23 billion liquefied natural gas development project in the Russian Arctic, in which Japan holds a ten percent stake. [Asia Nikkei]

The moves highlight how relations between Tokyo and Moscow have changed. Japanese former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was in office until 2020, had intended to strengthen ties with Russia in view of China’s rise and to promote cooperation in the Russian Far East and in the energy industry. [Asian News Network]

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said his country will take in refugees from Ukraine who have fled after the Russian invasion. While not disclosing a specific cap on arrivals, he said that, although priority would be given to refugees who have family or friends in Japan, the government was also preparing to accept Ukrainian refugees who have neither. Japan intends to issue visas after a case-by-case analysis and to allow such people to take up jobs if their stay is prolonged. [The Japan Times]

Japan is a country with restrictive policies for accepting refugees. Related laws were enacted in 1982 but since then, of 85,479 applicants, only 841 people have been able to seek refuge in the country. [The Washington Post]

(cm/acn)

Russia-Japan dispute over islands aggravated by preferential tax system

Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 9 signed an amendment to the federal tax code to establish preferential systems which will create a tax-free zone on four Russian-held islands claimed by Japan.

Companies registered with the Russian government, when working on the islands – called the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia – will not be required to pay key taxes, including corporate, property and land levies, for up to 20 years. [NHK]

Japan protested against the move, which came as Tokyo and Moscow had been discussing a plan to hold joint economic activities on the islands without harming the legal stance of either country.  [Kyodo News]   

The Japanese government also protested on March 28 after the Russian military announced that it held the first of a series of drills involving more than 3,000 troops on the Kuril islands.

On March 7, Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, described the chain of islands as “inherent territory”. Japanese politicians have avoided the term since November 2018, when Russia and Japan agreed to accelerate negotiations towards a peace treaty, based on a 1956 joint declaration. 

Under the declaration, Moscow should extend two of the four islands, Shikotan Island and the Habomai chain, to Japan.  [The Diplomat] [The Mainichi] However, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, progress towards a treaty seems unlikely. [Nikkei Asia]

(cm/acn)

Russia: Moscow prepared to study possibility of supplying newest S-500 air defence system to India

Russia will study supplying its newest S-500 air defence system to India if New Delhi “displays interest” in such an agreement. [Russian Aviation][Hindustan Times]

“As far as I know, no concrete talks are on the current agenda,” the Russian ambassador in New Delhi, Denis Alipov, told Russian media on March 18. “I can confirm that if India displays interest in acquiring S-500 systems, we will study this possibility in the closest way.”

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said in December that India might become the first foreign purchaser of its S-500 Prometheus. The Russian Defence Ministry said in July that  the S-500 had undergone live firing tests at the Kapustin Yar, a rocket launch and development site in Astrakhan Oblast, about 100 km east of the southern Russian city of Volgograd.

The S-500 system - a product of the Almaz-Antey group - was designed to intercept any of the existing or yet-to-be developed aerospace attack weapons of a hypothetical enemy in the entire range of altitudes and speeds. The S-500 is seen as a successor to the S-400 Triumf system.

(gc)

France, South Korea discuss security cooperation

The Director of Defence Strategy of the Directorate General of International Relations and Strategy of the French Defence Ministry, Bertrand Le Meur, has met with South Korea’s Director General of North Korea policy Cho Yong-kun to discuss opportunities to deepen bilateral space security cooperation.

The meeting in Paris was a follow-up to talks in February. Besides space security, both sides also agreed to enhance collaboration in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and other areas. [Yonhap News Agency]

(mpk/acn)

France, Indonesia discuss defence deals

French President Emmanuel Macron and Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto met on March 16 to discuss future steps the countries will take for the acquisition of military equipment by Jakarta. 

They also discussed the details of a USD 8.1 billion deal sealed by Jakarta on February 10 to purchase 42 Rafale fighter jets from France. [Politico] On the same occasion, Indonesia signed an exploratory agreement for the purchase of two French submarines. [The Jakarta Post]

(bs/acn)

Norway hosts 30,000 NATO troops for drills

More than 30,000 Western troops have taken part in drills in Norway, staging one of NATO’s biggest military exercises since the end of the Cold War amid rising tensions in Europe as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. [NATO]

The exercise, known as “Cold Response”, consisted of troops from 27 countries including the US, UK, Germany and France who practised the defence of Norway from air, sea and land. Neighbouring Finland and Sweden, which are not part of NATO, also took part. [Al Jazeera]

Yngve Odlo, the Norwegian general in charge of the exercise, said: “When a neighbouring country to NATO is at war, of course it affects the whole European security architecture, but there is no increased threat to Norway and no change in Russian forces close to our border. It’s a long-planned exercise, and it’s quite clearly a defensive exercise.” [Financial Times]

Russia’s embassy in Norway told the AFP news agency: “Any build-up of NATO military capabilities near Russia’s borders does not help to strengthen security in the region.” [France 24]

About 14,000 land forces, 8,000 naval personnel and 8,000 airmen took part in the exercises, which ran from March 14 to April 1. [Al Jazeera]

(mh/pk)

Spain abandons neutrality on Western Sahara

Spain has backed a 15-year-old proposal made by Morocco that neighbouring Western Sahara should operate autonomously under Moroccan rule – a diplomacy about-turn by Madrid which has been slammed by Algeria and pro-independence Western Sahara groups.  [Africa News] [Reuters]

The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, told Morocco on March 18 that he viewed its 2007 autonomy proposal as “serious, credible and realistic.” [El País]

Morocco’s proposal offers Western Sahara autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. Morocco sees the sparsely-populated Western Sahara as an integral piece of its territory. The pro-independence, Algeria-backed Polisario Front has called Spain’s new stance a “dangerous diversion.” [Al Jazeera] [Africa News] [MiddleEastEye]

Spain had previously remained neutral in a conflict over the territory of Western Sahara. Morocco’s foreign ministry, as well as the EU, the European Commission, and the US have welcomed Spain’s new position. Israel seconded Spain’s support of the proposal on March 28. [Albawaba] [Reuters] [Africa News] [Euro News] [Reuters]

Meanwhile, Algeria recalled its Madrid envoy the next day in protest. Algeria condemned Spain’s decision and questioned its motives, saying: “The Algerian authorities were at no point and at no level informed of this heinous deal signed with the Moroccan occupying power of the Sahrawi people.” [MiddleEastEye] [L’Expression]

Western Sahara is defined by the United Nations as one of the world’s 17 non-self-governing territories. King Felipe VI of Spain said in January that he wanted to rebuild Spain’s relationship with Morocco on “stronger and more solid foundations”.[MiddleEastEye]

(ht/pk)

Latvia requests permanent US troop deployment after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks security fears 

Latvia has called on the US to deploy troops to the Baltic country permanently as national security concerns increase after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army invaded Ukraine.  

“Looking at the most recent developments, we would be very happy about the permanent presence of US forces here in Latvia,” Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said during a news conference on March 7 in Riga with his US counterpart Antony Blinken. “We have no illusions about Putin's Russia anymore, we don't really see any good reason to assume Russia might change its policy.” [Reuters].

The US sent 800 infantry soldiers to the Baltic region after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It deployed forces including about 300 American troops to the Adazi military base in the vicinity of the country’s capital Riga. Latvian minister of defence, Artis Pabriks, welcomed such a commitment, underlining that Latvia would be able to defend itself whenever necessary. [Economic Times] [Reuters]

Latvia is concerned that the Baltic countries could be one of the next targets of Putin’s aggressive military adventurism. The reiteration of alliance commitments in the form of a US deployment in Latvia would signal to Moscow “don’t mess with us,” Pabriks said. [Reuters]

Latvia is a long-term US ally after its participation in the State Partnership Program in 1993 and its eventual accession to NATO in 2004. In light of the conflict in Donbas and Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014, Latvia endorsed the US-led operation Atlantic Resolve, which is conducted on a respectively bilateral basis with longstanding US partners in Europe and strengthens inter alia Latvia’s defensive capabilities through joint military drills, technical training and strategic education [Aizsardzibas ministrija].

(mo/gc)

Kosovo leaders push for NATO membership, permanent US base after Russia attacks Ukraine

Kosovo has asked the United States to speed up its integration into NATO and establish a permanent military base in the country as a deterrent against foreign interference after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

“In light of the situation in Ukraine, the time has come for Kosovo to join NATO,” the country’s president, Vjosa Osmani, said on March 1 during a joint press conference in Ankara with her Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Defence Minister Armend Mehaj said on February 27 on his Facebook page that a permanent US base is needed to “guarantee peace, security and stability in the Western Balkans.” [Reuters]

Officials in Pristina are concerned that Russia may use Serbia to meddle in its internal affairs, possibly through Belgrade’s military. Moscow has opposed Kosovo aligning itself with Western nations after it gained independence in 2008.

Kosovo is recognised by more than 110 countries, mainly Western nations, but not by Serbia or its traditional ally Russia. Four NATO members also refuse to recognise Kosovo's independence. The United States already has 635 soldiers in the country to maintain the fragile peace as part of a NATO peacekeeping mission. [Reuters]

President Osmani warned that Russia will seek to “destabilise the whole of Europe” by meddling first in the Balkans, adding that Moscow was using Serbia to endanger democratic values in the region. Prime Minister Albin Kurti said in mid-March that “it is in the interest of the Russian Federation to have new battlegrounds because they do not want to go back to peace.” [The Guardian] 

In response to Kosovo’s NATO push, Serbian Interior Minister Aleksander Vulin said on March 4 that Pristina’s membership in the military bloc would be perceived as a threat to Belgrade. Vulin has said that he does not view Kosovo as a state, claiming there are no laws or justice for ethnic Serbs, and has made derogatory comments about ethnic Kosovars. [RFE/RL]

(bp/gc)

Moldova to apply for EU membership, while hesitating to join NATO due to military neutrality

Moldova has pledged that it would seek to comply with the necessary measures needed to join the European Union as the Russian invasion of Ukraine instigated a large influx of refugees from across the border. [BusinessStandard]

Integration into the European Union has become a more important priority for President Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita in contrast to the preceding administration. Moldova, which ratified an EU Association Agreement in 2014 but has not yet been recognised as a potential candidate, joins Ukraine and Georgia in wanting to join the EU in response to the bloody war in Ukraine. 

The Russian war is causing a shift in thinking across the bloc and among future member states amid Moscow’s challenge of global norms and international law. The EU has unified and demonstrated strength against President Vladimir Putin's invasion with tough sanctions and financing of military equipment for Ukraine’s military.   

While Moldova is comfortable joining the EU, it is emphatic about its military neutrality, citing the unresolved conflict with the pro-Russian separatist territory Transnistria, where Russia is regarded as a key stakeholder in the conflict. While condemning the war in Ukraine, officials in Chisinau have reiterated that they will not sanction Russia or move closer towards NATO, emphasising military neutrality, as enshrined in the constitution. [Politico]

Transnistria, however, has denounced any closer EU integration, reiterating the self-claimed validity of a referendum on independence held in 2006. Despite increasing frictions and uncertainties as to how the situation could further unfold, Prime Minister Gavrilita does not envision any plans for engaging Moldova militarily.[BusinessStandard][Transnistria]

In this context, Moldova’s minister of foreign affairs Nicu Popescu emphasised that Moldova’s EU membership ambitions would have no impact on the constitutional status on military neutrality, referring to Finland, Sweden, Austria and Cyprus.[Newsweek]

(mo/gc)

United Kingdom hosts first-ever NATO multi-domain operations conference

The UK Strategic Command and NATO’s Allied Command Transformation co-hosted the first-ever multi-domain operations conference in Oxford on March 16-18.[GOVUK]

The conference gathered senior military representatives from NATO member nations, as well as experts from other government departments, industry, and academia. [GOVUK]

Multi-Domain Operations is about ensuring that military operations can be conducted seamlessly across all five warfighting domains – maritime, land, air, space, and cyberspace – and in a unified way with allies.[GOVUK]

“Being integrated with our NATO Allies has never been so important,” General Sir Patrick Sanders, Commander of UK Strategic Command, said. “This conference was an excellent opportunity for Alliance members to unify our thinking on multi-domain operations and the future of warfighting. We can’t afford to get this wrong.”.[GOVUK]

(gc)

Sweden announces early pull-out of troops from UN Mali mission 

Sweden’s military has announced it will withdraw some 220 of its soldiers from the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali in 2023, a year earlier than planned. 

While Sweden offered no explanation for the withdrawal, there have been a number of recent troop pull-outs in the region after a strengthened presence of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company that is associated with the Kremlin. [Reuters 1] [Reuters 2]

In January, Sweden decided to pull out its 150 soldiers from France’s “Takuba” special forces mission in the Sahel region, and noted that it would review its participation in the UN peacekeeping mission. [France 24]

In February, France announced that it was withdrawing its 2,400 troops from Mali over the next six months due to uncertainty regarding the intentions of the country’s de facto authorities. Mali is ruled by a junta government which came to power in a military coup in May 2021. 

France had criticised the junta’s decision to delay democratic elections until 2027. The mission was initially established as an operation to fight the presence of Al-Qaeda and other jihad forces in the West African Sahel region. [EiR Monthly March 2022]

(aml/pk)

Seven Latin American countries sign declaration to fight organised crime with EU

Seven Latin American countries signed a political declaration in Brussels on March 2 to create a security committee to fight against transnational criminal networks in partnership with the European Union. 

The Latin-American Internal Security Committee, or CLASI, includes Argentina, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, and El Salvador. The committee will promote “a close articulation of our actions, national strategies and public policies in the fight against transnational organised crime, as well as to encourage the involvement of other Latin American states,”  a statement on the website of the European External Action Service (EEAS) said. [EEAS][FIIAPP].

The declaration is “a reflection of Latin America's desire to engage with Europe to achieve greater security for all,” Brian Glyn, the director of the EEAS for the Americas, said in the statement. “We know that security challenges are global and the only way to tackle them is through regional and international cooperation.” [EEAS][[ELPACCTO].

Five other Latin American countries have shown interest in joining. They include Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. The Minister of Security of Argentina will assume the first rotating presidency. [EEAS].

“We are strengthening our role as a strategic ally for Latin America and the Caribbean in the areas of justice and peace,” said Jolita Butkeviciene, Director of Latin America and the Caribbean of the Directorate-General for International Partnerships in the European Commission. 

(jm/gc)

US, UK hold transatlantic talks to increase GBP 200b trade relationship

The United Kingdom and the US are holding a new series of transatlantic meetings aimed at deepening trade and investment ties from their “already-thriving’’ GBP 200 billion relationship.

Britain’s International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan and United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai were among those who gathered at the Joint UK/US Dialogues on the Future of Atlantic Trade meeting, according to a statement from the British government. 

The first meeting took place in Baltimore, Maryland, from March 21 to 22, with a second round of talks scheduled for spring in the UK. They will form a platform for further conversations between the two sides. 

During the talks, the two agreed to re-establish a UK-US SME dialogue to continue to bring together small and medium-sized enterprises from both sides of the Atlantic, identify ways to further support trade and investment, and how to better harness the benefits of an open and competitive digital economy, with safeguards for workers, consumers and businesses.

They also agreed to build on the G7’s first ever set of Digital Trade Principles during the UK presidency, such as working towards the digitisation of paper-based customs and other border agency requirements in order to cut red tape and to build strong supply chains that can withstand future global shocks.

Trevelyan also secured a resolution with the US to end an ongoing issue around steel and aluminium tariffs. The US announced a move that re-opens tariff-free access for UK steel and aluminium exporters to America. The changes will take effect on June 1.

The event in Baltimore brought together government ministers, senior officials, trade unions, businesses and civil society from both sides to discuss ways the UK and US can work together to deepen their trading relationship.

“The US is our biggest trading partner,” Trevelyan said before the meeting. “Our thriving relationship already delivers so much for our economies, businesses and people. Now, more than ever, we recognise the power of deepening trade ties with like-minded allies around the world.” [GOVUK]

(gc/pk)

United Kingdom holds second round of free trade talks with India

The United Kingdom and India held their second round of free trade talks, which covered the draft text that will form the basis of an agreement. The third round of negotiations is planned for April. [GOVUK]

(pr/gc)

Portugal, Cape Verde agree investment plan at summit 

The prime ministers of Portugal and Cape Verde shook on renewed ties and a four-year investment package worth EUR 95 million at the conclusion of a bilateral summit in the island capital of Praia. [Africa News]

The new Strategic Cooperation Programme signed on March 7 aims to channel investment into six areas of development in Cape Verde by 2026 – principally education and health. The two countries also reinforced ties with five bilateral agreements.

The Portuguese prime minister, Antonio Costa, hailed the summit as a success and praised the “very deep relationship” between the two countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, Costa said: “This is the time to show how future generations must rely on friendship, cooperation, and the alliances they are able to build.” [Diário de Notícias]

Cape Verde’s prime minister, Ulisses Correia e Silva, said he hoped that relations between the two countries would evolve “from a partnership into an alliance.” He added: “It is investments of this kind that make countries grow.” [Africa News]

The meeting in Cape Verde came three weeks after an European Union-African Union summit on February 18, which aimed to spark investment in Africa and cement ties between the two continents. [EiR Monthly March 2022] Costa and Silva were united in their aim to “support and help achieve what was agreed in Brussels.” [Diário de Notícias]

The next Portugal-Cape Verde summit will take place in 2024 in Portugal. 

(ht/pk)

Latvia, UAE deepen economic cooperation

Latvia and the United Arab Emirates signed on March 3 a six-track economic cooperation programme to further strengthen their bilateral relationship. 

The programme will cover the areas of trade and investment, innovation and advanced technology, transportation and logistics, agriculture and food security, energy and renewable energy, as well as education and science. UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani bin Ahmed al Zeyoudi said that “Latvia is a promising economic destination and an important trade partner for the UAE in the Baltic region.” [The National News][WAM News Agency].

(mo/gc)

Czech Republic, Cambodia agree to strengthen trade ties 

The Czech Republic and Cambodia have agreed to enhance bilateral ties in trade and import-export cooperation. The Czech ambassador to Cambodia met with the Cambodian minister of commerce on March 1 to discuss the potential of markets for Czech goods in Southeast Asia, especially within the framework of bilateral and multilateral agreements between Cambodia and other countries in the region. 

Czech diplomats in Cambodia have said that more Czech companies are likely to progressively focus on the Cambodian market. [Embassy of the Czech Republic in Phnom Penh] 

(bs/acn) 

Hungary to deepen trade cooperation with South Korea 

During the fourth meeting of the Hungarian-South Korean Joint Economic Cooperation Committee on March 3, Hungarian Finance Minister Mihaly Varga and South Korean Industry Minister Moon Sung-wook agreed to strengthen cooperation in trade, green growth and digital transition issues. In November last year, the two countries decided to elevate their relations to a strategic level.  [Yonhap News Agency 1]

Varga said that Hungary is willing to continue providing an investor-friendly business environment for South Korea in order to maintain and promote bilateral economic relations which contributed to the employment of 20,000 people in Hungary in 2021.  [Daily News Hungary] Last year, South Korea was the largest source of investment in Hungary, pumping in HUF 1 trillion (some EUR 2.6 billion). [Hungarian Insider]

Both sides agreed to facilitate economic relations through additional measures to avoid a possible impact of the Ukraine crisis on their trade ties. This includes the facilitation of investment conditions for South Korean companies in Hungary, Varga said. [Yonhap News Agency 2]

(mpk/acn)

Turkey, South Korea review progress on free trade

Twenty trade officials from Turkey and South Korea came together virtually for the fifth director-level meeting of the South Korea-Turkey free trade agreement (FTA) joint committee on March 22 to review the performance of the trade accord that came into force in 2013 and to discuss opportunities to further deepen economic ties.

The meeting took place four days after Turkey received South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum. While the trade volume between the two countries was USD 5.22 billion in 2012, it grew to USD 8.26 billion last year. [Yonhap News Agency]

(mpk/acn)

Switzerland, Indonesia sign trade and investment agreement

The Swiss-Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) signed a three-year Memorandum of Understanding on March 15.

The Memorandum of Understanding will boost trade and investment between Switzerland and Indonesia through liaising on investment policies, foreign direct investment, innovation and knowledge transfer.  [The Jakarta Post]

(lb/acn)

Dutch ambassador pledges help for Nepal

The ambassador of the Netherlands to Nepal, India and Bhutan has said that his government is prepared to supply Nepal with expertise to achieve its goals of socio-economic development.

Ambassador Marten Van den Berg said the Netherlands would provide Nepal with land reclamation and water management expertise, and that the two nations could collaborate on tackling climate change. The Netherlands and Nepal have a long history of cooperation dating back to the 1960s. [Nepalese Ministry of Foreign Affairs] [ The Himalayan]

(kd/acn)

French firm talks investment with South Korea

Christophe Perillat, CEO of French auto parts maker Valeo, has met South Korean Industry Minister Moon Sung-wook in France to take part in a ceremony marking the company’s planned investment of USD 35 million in South Korea.

Valeo aims to support the research and development of key parts for future vehicles, and expand its production facilities in South Korea. [Yonhap News Agency 1]

(mpk/acn)

Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

Belgium: Federal government provides additional financial support to absorb Ukrainian refugee influx

Prime Minister Alexander De Croo will provide additional financial support to social services to help offset the cost of absorbing the influx of refugees caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

An estimated 200,000 Ukrainian refugees are expected to arrive in Belgium, of whom at least half will have to rely on the Public Centre for Social Welfare (PCSW). Local authorities and the PCSW sent a letter to Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, requesting support from the federal government. [BrusselsTimes] [VRTNews] [DeMorgen]

Local social services boards will decide how to use the additional funding after an assessment on the specific demands of each refugee. 

Under the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, Ukrainians refugees in Belgium have the right to a residence permit, access to the labour market, education and social assistance. The protection will also be provided to non-Ukrainian nationals and stateless people residing in Ukraine who are not able to return to their country of origin. [BrusselsTimes]

(gt/gc)

Belgium: Farmers associations oppose Flemish government’s nitrogen emission proposals

Three Belgian farmers associations have opposed a new proposal by the Flemish regional government to limit emissions of nitrogen and ammonia in the farming industry in an effort to fight climate change.  

The Flemish government wants to impose new regulations that will reduce nitrogen emission by 60 percent by 2030. The regulations will also require pig and poultry farms to cut the size of their livestock by 30 percent in the next few years.  [RTBFInfo] [VRTNews]

The associations – Boerenbond, Groene Kring and Ferm voor Agravrouwen – started the ‘Stop the Madness’ campaign in response to the new regulations and said that the proposal constitutes a “breach of contract’’ that places the agricultural sector at a significant disadvantage.

 In March, several protests took place, with farmers voicing concerns that they will either have to invest heavily to meet the new rules or leave the sector.

Peter Bruggen, the provincial secretary of Boerenbond, said he wants to re-examine the proposal to reach a solution with the regional government and recognizes the importance of the fight against climate change.

(gt/gc)

Belgium:  People of African origin suffer discrimination in the labour market, equal opportunities centre says

The Inter-Federal Equal Opportunities Centre Unia said in a report that people of sub-Saharan descent are more disadvantaged in the country’s labour market compared to people of Belgian origin.  [VRTNews] [BrusselsTimes]

Individuals of African descent do not have the same access to education, which undermines their access to jobs,  as their white Belgian counterparts, Unia’s Director Els Keytsman said in the report. The wage gap between people of African origin and white Belgians with the same academic degrees is around 30 percent, according to the report. 

Keytsman criticised recent legislative initiatives that she said simplified practical solutions to racism, while calling for a national plan to fight discrimination more efficiently in accordance with the Durban 2001 world conference against racism.

“So many years after the great world conference against racism in Durban in 2001, it is high time that our country – which was also at that conference – works on a national action plan against racism,” she said.  [BrusselsTimes]

(gt/gc)

France: Macron favourite in French presidential race increasingly defined by Ukraine war

Ahead of the first round of French presidential elections on April 10, incumbent Emmanuel Macron remains the favourite, with recent polls placing him ahead of his main rivals, far-right leader Marine Le Pen and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon [Politico].

Marcon’s confidence has increased along with surveys showing him pulling him ahead, helped by his handling of the Russian crisis. The most recent polls suggest Macron has gained between 5.0 and 6.0 percentage points from February and could be on course to win the first round of the election with a score of around 30 percent, a significantly higher margin of victory than in 2017. [France24]

The presidential race has largely been shaped by Russia’s war on Ukraine, revealing sharp contrasts in candidates’ attitudes towards Moscow. Macron received a boost in his popularity due to his diplomatic efforts to avert a war and his strong condemnation of President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine. [ECFR]

Macron stumbled at the start of the year when he said he wanted to “piss off” people who were not vaccinated against the coronavirus. His comments were criticised by the opposition, appearing to set the stage for a national debate on the government’s Covid-19 restrictions as France moved closer to presidential elections.

The conflict in Ukraine has, for now, pushed aside policy disagreements about France’s pandemic measures, as politicians focus on trying to distance themselves from Putin or justify their close ties to Russia.  

Marine Le Pen’s long-standing connection to Putin has tarnished her party’s image as it scrambled to defend its ties with Russia at the start of the Ukraine crisis. In 2014, Le Pen’s Rassemblement National received a loan worth EUR 9.7 million from a Russian bank to fund its campaign. Le Pen has since criticised the invasion of Ukraine and called for a diplomatic solution, though she said that Putin “has crossed a red line.” [The Guardian]

Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left party La France Insoumise, who remains committed to the radical left, initially came under fire for his alleged complacency towards Putin. He has since condemned the invasion but his position of “non-alignment” in the context of the Ukrainian war continues to draw criticism from the left. [EntertainmentOverdose]

Despite efforts to garner support from more left-wing voters, Melenchon remains an isolated figure in the political landscape of the French left as Communist candidate Fabien Roussel, environmentalist Yannick Jadot and Socialist Anne Hidalgo refuse to align with him. [LeMonde] Jadot has criticised Melenchon’s “non-alignment” stance on the conflict, saying it was a “capitulation” to Putin. [EntertainmentOverdose] 

Meanwhile, Valerie Pecresse, leader of the mainstream right-wing party Les Republicains (LR), and far-right anti-immigrant radical Eric Zemmour, who is often compared to former US President Donald Trump, have both seen their campaigns sliding in recent weeks.

One thing all presidential candidates share is an obsession with voter turnout. 

Recent Ipsos-Le Monde polls have revealed that voters are paying less attention to this campaign than to the one in 2017. Even Macron would not be immune to a low turnout in the first round.  Even if he wins in the second round, a high voter abstention rate would curb his political momentum. [LeMonde] 

(la/gc/pk)

France: Macron aims to bolster national sovereignty amid international turmoil

Picking up the pace of his campaign, French President Emmanuel Macron rolled out his re-election platform in March, vowing to bolster the country’s sovereignty and guide France through a new era of international turmoil.

The incumbent president wants to make France a more self-reliant country, saying that this will be a key objective as he moves to bolster the country's agricultural and industrial independence, strengthen the army and build more nuclear reactors. Nuclear power “is the only option that allows us to reduce our carbon emissions in an efficient, rapid and sovereign way,” he said on March 17 in Aubervilliers, north of Paris. [France24]

He pledged in February to build 14 new-generation nuclear reactors, saying that “the time has come for a nuclear renaissance.” France plans to add six new hi-tech pressurised water reactors by 2028 at existing nuclear facilities and will build eight more by 2050. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

During a press conference in March, he also said that he wanted to build a “European metaverse” to compete with US tech giants and make Europe more independent on that front too. [France24]

He is also pushing his economic policy, one that will lower taxes and aims to further cut unemployment, while raising the minimum retirement age by three years to 65. He pledged to make the French economy stronger if re-elected by cutting taxes across the board on businesses and individuals by EUR 15 billion a year.  [France24]

“I had promised to lower unemployment – despite the crises, we did it,” he said. “The rate of unemployment is at its lowest level for 15 years, the youth unemployment rate is at its lowest level for 40 years, and the participation rate is at its highest level since we've been measuring it.”

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Germany reopens debate about reinstating military conscription amid Russia’s European security threat

Germany has reopened a debate amid the Russian military invasion of Ukraine about whether to reinstate military conscription after replacing it with a volunteer army in 2011 as Europe’s largest economy allocates more financial resources to its armed forces. 

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) deputy chairman Carsten Linnemann said he was in favour of “a year of compulsory service for young men and women after completing their schooling.”In the state of Lower Saxony, CDU members have put together a paper calling for the reintroduction of military service as “a decisive signal for ensuring an effective military deterrence,” Die Welt newspaper reported. [France24]

Wolfgang Hellmich, a politician for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), called for an “urgent” debate on the issue in an interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper. Compulsory military service would help “promote public spirit”, he said, also calling for careers in the Bundeswehr to be made more attractive to young people. [France24]

Underlining a striking shift in European thinking after the Russian invasion, Germany has pledged to increase defence spending to more than 2 percent of its economic output. Germany has long resisted pressure from the US and others to raise its defence spending to 2 percent of GDP due to a strong level of pacifism among its population. It has steadily reduced the size of its armed forces since the end of the Cold War, from around 500,000 at the time of reunification in 1990 to just 200,000 today. [France24][EiR Monthly March 2022]

Not all of Germany’s politicians are behind the decision to introduce conscription. Eva Hoegl, a Social Democrat and the Bundestag's defence commissioner, has called the debate “a theoretical discussion that does not help in the current situation.”

Florian Hahn of the Christian Social Union, the CDU's Bavarian sister party, said Germany needs “technology and weapons systems,” not just an increase in headcount. 

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Germany: Cologne court rules that AfD party can be classified as suspected case of extremism

A German court ruled on March 8 that the country’s domestic intelligence service can designate the Alternative for Germany party as a suspected case of extremism, rejecting a suit by the far-right opposition party last year that tried to prevent it. [Tagesschau] [AP] [Spiegel]

The administrative court in Cologne found that there was sufficient evidence of anti-constitutional activity inside the party. The court ruled that the AfD’s hard-right faction, known as The Wing, continues to influence the party despite having been officially dissolved. The ruling allows the country’s intelligence service to monitor the party and its youth organisation. [FAZ] [Deutsche Welle] [Zeit]

The court delivered its ruling in a long-running dispute with Alternative for Germany, five months after a national election in which the party secured 10.3 percent of the vote. The AfD had objected in a suit in March 2021 to being classified as a “suspicious entity” for extremism. [AP] 

The AfD suit included objections to the classification of its formally dissolved extreme-right wing as “established far-right extremism.” The judges ruled in favour of the AfD regarding the descriptions.  

The court decided that even if The Wing had been officially dissolved, its members were still active in the party and the youth organisation promoted xenophobic concepts. [Deutsche Welle] [FAZ]

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Germany: Government moves to ease abortion laws by removing advertisement ban

The German government decided on March 9 to ease the country’s law regulating abortions by removing the so-called advertisement ban on them.

Advertising abortions are illegal under paragraph 219a of German criminal law, which currently prohibits doctors from providing public information on their websites about the abortion services they provide. The coalition between the Greens party, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Liberal Party (FDP) agreed to remove the paragraph. [ZDF] [EURACTIV] 

German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said on March 9 that the current law is “intolerable” since doctors fear criminal prosecution for providing objective information about abortions. Buschmann said that the new law would not allow abortions to be advertised “like chocolate bars or travel.” [ZDF] [Euronews] [FAZ]

Women's Affairs Minister Anne Spiegel said the decades-old abortion law was "overdue" for change, adding that  “doctors should in future be able to provide information about their medical services for abortions without having to fear prosecution or stigmatisation." 

Last year, Doctor Kristina Hanel was fined EUR 6,000 for saying she performed abortions and for naming the medical methods on her website. The new draft law will include annulments of judgements like the one against Hanel. [EURACTIV] [FAZ]

The German Bundestag and Bundesrat chambers of parliament will discuss the proposed legislation. [Euronews]

Abortions are legal in Germany as long as they are performed within the first twelve weeks of pregnancy and after obligatory counselling. Abortions are also permitted if there are specific medical reasons or if the woman was raped. [Euronews]

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Germany: Tesla receives final approval to build EUR 5b Gigafactory in Germany amid opposition

Tesla received final approval to build a EUR 5 billion Gigafactory near Berlin, a decision that will increase competition with European carmakers in the fast-growing battery-powered car market.

The project has been delayed by environmental concerns since construction started in 2019 with 19 preliminary permits. The federal state of Brandenburg granted its approval on March 4. [Spiegel] [Politico Europe]

“This approval process was a mammoth task,” Dietmar Woidke, premier of Brandenburg, where the plant is located, said in a statement. The final permit is 537 pages long with several thousand pages of appendices, he said. [Politico Europe] 

The Tesla plant will likely increase competition with European carmakers.

Volkswagen, the European market leader in electric vehicles, announced on March 4 that it would build a new factory for its central electric car, Trinity, with construction to start next year and production to start in 2026. Other brands like BMW and Mercedes Benz are also investing in battery research. [FAZ] [Politico Europe] [Reuters]

Concerns about unfinished assessments of sewage treatment and contingency and emergency plans had delayed approval for Tesla’s project. Environmental groups may challenge the permit in court. [Deutsche Welle] [Zeit] 

Before production can start, Tesla must meet certain conditions. These include emergency plans, air pollution control and issues around water use. Tesla said it would provide solutions to these concerns within two weeks. [Reuters] [FAZ] [Politico Europe]

 An administrative court in Frankfurt Oder ruled that plans to increase the volume of water for the plant was “illegal” due to procedural errors in the licensing process. The court left open the chance for water utility provider Wasserverband Strausberg-Erkner to address the errors and keep its water supply arrangement with Tesla. [Zeit] [Reuters] 

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Germany: Every fifth child is at risk of poverty in Europe’s largest economy, ministry report says

Every fifth child in Germany is at risk of falling into poverty, a report by the Federal Ministry of Labour published on March 13 shows. 

About 20 percent of those under the age of 18, or 13.75 million children and adolescents, were at risk of poverty in Europe’s largest economy, according to 2020 data published in the report. The government raised monthly financial aid for affected families by EUR 20 to EUR 229 a month on the same day the report was released. [DW] [Tagesschau] [Federal Ministry for Family Affairs]

The Left Party criticised the findings of the report and the response of the government. 

“Child poverty is a sad scandal in our rich country,” Dietmar Bartsch, the chairman of the Left Party, said. He wants the benefits for every child to be raised and said there needs to be a “poverty-proof basic child benefit of up to EUR 630” a month. The report was a response to a written question.  

According to the Ministry of Labour, a working group, agreed upon by the ruling parties of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the Liberal Party (FDP), would start soon. [Tagesschau] [DW]

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Netherlands: Dutch political parties provide election information in English for non-Dutch speaking voters

Political parties in the Netherlands have provided election information and hosted debates in English for citizens who were eligible to vote in municipal elections last month but do not speak Dutch.

About half of the parties that participated in the municipal elections from March 14-16 provided information in English, according to research conducted by Dutch News in 10 cities with large international populations. Groenlinks, a green political party, offered information in English in all 10 cities. 

Groenlinks spokeswoman Lotte Jeursen said “for us it was a conscious decision to prioritise translations of our manifesto," adding that “our key priorities’’ are “an inclusive society, so we try to make our programme as accessible as possible." [Euroactiv] [Dutch News]

Non-EU citizens can vote if they have lived in the Netherlands for at least five consecutive years, while EU citizens can vote if they are registered as residents of the country. [Euroactiv] 

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Netherlands: Dutch court releases two detained Ukrainians so they can fight Russian forces

A Dutch court ordered on March 19 an early release of two Ukrainian citizens being held in pretrial detention for human smuggling so they could return to their country to fight Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces. 

Their lawyer had requested that the court free the 27 and 29-year-old males after the Ukrainian government called on its nationals to defend their country after the Russian invasion. The court in Breda decided that the situation was of "special and grave circumstances" and decided to grant their release to return home and fight. [Euractiv] [Dutch News]

The two had been in custody for six months for human smuggling charges. Last September, they were arrested on a yacht after attempting to smuggle a group of Albanians into the UK. [Euractiv]

They were released under specific conditions: they must not commit any more offences, they must serve their sentences if the court still decides to convict them, and, if requested, they must return to sit their pre-trial detention. [Euractiv] [Dutch News] [NL Times]

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United Kingdom: Government considers using sanctioned property to house refugees

The British government is considering whether it can use properties owned by sanctioned individuals, including Russian oligarchs, in the country for humanitarian purposes.

“I want to explore an option which would allow us to use the homes and properties of sanctioned individuals for as long as they are sanctioned for humanitarian and other purposes,” Housing Minister Michael Gove said in an interview with BBC. He made the comments when asked if the homes of sanctioned oligarchs could be used to house Ukrainian refugees. [Reuters]

The British government is also ending its visa scheme that fast-tracked residency for wealthy individuals investing in the United Kingdom due to concerns about money laundering. Home Secretary Priti Patel said ending the Tier 1 investor visas was the start of a "renewed crackdown on illicit finance and fraud.” Tier 1 investors could get the golden visa by investing USD 2.7 million in the United Kingdom. 

The announcement came amid pressure on ministers to cut UK ties to Russia over the threat of invasion to Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine since the British government’s move to halt Tier 1 visas. [EiR Monthly March 2022]

Gove also said that there was “quite a high legal bar to cross” and that the government was ‘’not talking about permanent confiscation.”

“We are saying, ‘you're sanctioned, you're supporting Putin, this home is here, you have no right to use or profit from it’ and ... if we can use it in order to help others let's do that,” he said.

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United Kingdom: Government launches new visa scheme for Ukrainian refugees

The British government launched on March 18 a new visa scheme for Ukrainian refugees that allows them to stay for up to three years with the right to work and with full access to public services after the government was criticised for doing too little. [GOVUK]

British individuals, charities, communities, and business groups are allowed to host Ukrainian refugees in their homes or in a separate property for a minimum of six months. Individual sponsors will be asked to provide homes or a spare room rent-free for as long as they are able with a payment of GBP 350 per month from the government. [GOVUK]

Security and biometric visa requirements will be lifted for Ukrainian refugees under the new visa scheme. In March, this move was rejected by the British government due to security concerns. Interested hosts still need to undergo security checks. [Gov.UK][Politico]

Recent critics address the practicality of the new scheme because hosts are supposed to contact Ukrainian refugees directly. There is no official platform to match hosts and refugees. [Guardian][Gov.UK]

The Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove, said that  “we will set out how sponsors can identify a named Ukrainian individual or family, who can then take up each sponsorship offer.”

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United Kingdom: PM meets with nuclear industry leaders

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met on March 21 with leaders from the nuclear industry to discuss how to improve domestic energy security and rapidly accelerate nuclear projects in the UK, according to a statement from his office. [GOVUK]

Johnson made it clear that nuclear energy should be a major part of the UK’s future energy system as a clean, reliable and safe energy source. He set out this government’s commitment to supporting the industry to develop a thriving pipeline of future nuclear projects in the UK in a cost-effective way. [GOVUK]

Industry representatives set out the various technologies and projects they are developing, from larger nuclear power plants to small modular reactors, capitalising on both British and international expertise. [GOVUK]

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United Kingdom: Parliament approves new legislation to fight economic crimes

The British parliament approved the Economic Crime Bill on March 14 to empower investigators to pursue illegal criminal activity and the sanctioning of individuals and entities breaking UK laws. [Parliament.UK][GOVUK][Politico]

The law seeks to establish a register of overseas ownership of land and property in the UK, updates the financial sanctions law and the Unexplained Wealth Orders. The British government will propose further legislation this year to tackle illicit finance.[Parliament.UK][Parliament.UK][GOVUK][Politico]

In a new round of sanctions against Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities announced on March 15, the law was applied to the majority of the more than 370 individuals targeted. [GOVUK]

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United Kingdom: New Committee aims to save GBP 5.5 billion of wasteful government spending

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, announced a new plan to cut GBP 5.5 billion of wasteful spending across the government. [GOVUK]

Sunak will chair a newly established Efficiency and Value for Money Committee to take measures to reduce wasteful government spending.  The annual NHS efficiency target will be doubled to 2.2 percent and semi-public administrative bodies outside the civil service that receive financial support from the government will be expected to find at least GBP 800 million that will be directed back into public services. [GOVUK]

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United Kingdom: P&O ferry operator fires entire workforce citing financial reasons

British P&O Ferries, one of the largest ferry operators in the country, fired its entire workforce of 786 people on March 17, stating financial reasons for replacing them with less expensive workers. [The Guardian]

The conservative government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson condemned the move and urged a rethink by P&O as Britons struggle with surging inflation and tax rises. Britain said on March 29 that it will force ferry operators docking in its ports to pay minimum wage as it stepped up pressure on P&O Ferries to rehire 800 workers.[MSN]

The replacement workers  will receive an hourly rate starting at GBP 5.15, except on the Larne-Cairnryan route between Northern Ireland and Scotland, where it will be bound by UK minimum wage laws. The average sacked seafarer on previous contracts was paid GBP 36,000 per year.

P&O said it had decided to break the law and fire workers on the spot so it could instead hire cheaper agency staff after losing GBP 100 million last year due to COVID-19 curbs. P&O Ferries CEO Peter Hebblethwaite told a Commons hearing into firings that the firm was halving its costs under a ‘’new operating model,’’ which meant international seafarers would be paid less than minimum wage. [MSN]

Hebblethwaite also admitted that the company broke the law by choosing to sack the workers without consultation because “no union could accept our proposals.’’ 

The British government had demanded that Hebblethwaite explain the circumstances behind the mass layoff. It highlighted legal obligations for the company to notify relevant authorities in advance. [GOVUK]

Fresh questions arose about what warning ministers had received of the sackings, after Hebblethwaite said P&O’s parent company, DP World, had told the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, of planned changes to its business model in November. [The Guardian]

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United Kingdom: Northern Ireland lowers terrorism threat level to substantial for first time in 12 years

Northern Ireland has lowered the terrorism threat level to substantial from severe for the first time in 12 years, according to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Brandon Lewis. [GOVUK]

The decision to change the threat level was taken by MI5 independently of the minister, and is subject to continuous review, Lewis said in a statement on March 22.  Judgements about the threat are based on a wide range of information and it has been assessed that the threat level has now met the threshold to lower. [GOVUK]

“This is the first time the threat level in Northern Ireland has changed since 2010 and shows the significant progress that Northern Ireland has made, and continues to make, towards a more peaceful, more prosperous and safer society,’’ Lewis said. “It is a testament to the ongoing commitment to protecting the peace process and tackling Northern Ireland-related terrorism.’’  [GOVUK]

‘Substantial’ means that a terrorist attack is likely and might well occur without further warning. [GOVUK]

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United Kingdom: Three British nationals released from an Iranian prison after 1979 debt settled with Iran

British Foreign Secretary of State Liz Truss announced the release of three British nationals from Iranian prisons on March 16. The individuals were in jail from four to six years. [GOVUK]

The release of the British nationals was considered held up because of the payment of a GBP 400 million British debt to Iran. It was seen as a precondition for the release of British-Iranian dual nationals held in Tehran, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. [The Guardian]

“Their release is the result of years of hard work and dedication by our brilliant diplomats, and intensive efforts over the past 6 months,’’ Truss said. “I pay tribute to my predecessors and the Prime Minister, who have all worked hard to resolve this issue.’’ [GOVUK]

The debt owed by Britain to Iran relates to a large sale of tanks to the country from the UK during the Shah’s time. In the mid-1970s the UK sold more than 1,500 Chieftain battle tanks and 250 repair vehicles to its close ally the Shah of Iran.  Iran paid GBP 600 million for the tanks, but Britain’s arms sales export subsidiary International Military Services (IMS) in February 1979 refused to deliver the remaining weaponry when the shah was deposed and replaced by a new Islamic revolutionary regime. [The Guardian]

‘’We have also settled the IMS debt, as we said we would,’’ Truss said. “I made resolving the continued detention of British nationals and the IMS debt payment my top priorities when I entered office in September 2021.’’  [GOVUK]

Former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the debt should have been paid earlier, pointing to ministerial turnovers and “initial reluctance to pay the debt’’ as two possible explanations for why the payment had been delayed. [Independent][Guardian]

There had been concerns that the UK would breach international law by paying the debt. 

“The IMS debt has been settled in full compliance with UK and international sanctions and all legal obligations,’’ Truss said. “These funds will be ring-fenced solely for the purchase of humanitarian goods.” [GOVUK][BBC]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

Nordic countries rethink defence strategies

Sweden and Denmark have decided to boost their defence spending, while Denmark is to hold a referendum on whether to join the EU’s joint defence pact as Nordic countries reconsider their military policies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

However, wary of the Russian reaction, leaders in Sweden and Finland have said that applying to join NATO would be risky at the moment, even though support for joining the Western military alliance has shot up in both countries.

The Swedish government decided on March 10 to increase its annual defence spending to up to 2 percent of its gross domestic product. [Reuters] Sweden’s 2021 defence budget was about SEK 66 billion (EUR 63 billion). Stockholm plans to raise this amount to SEK 91 billion (EUR 87 billion) by 2025. [Al Jazeera]

The increase in military spending marks a watershed in Swedish politics. For decades, the country has slashed its defence budget to reach about one percent of its GDP in the early 2000s, but those cuts ended with the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. [Al Jazeera] 

Meanwhile, on February 27 the Swedish government decided to supply military equipment to Ukraine. A week later, Swedish airspace was briefly violated by Russian fighter jets. The incident was criticised as “completely unacceptable” by Swedish Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist, who said: “We view this event very seriously.” [Reuters] [EiR Monthly March 2022]

While support for joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has risen among Swedes and Finns [EiR Monthly March 2022], Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson rejected joining the Western defence alliance for now, saying that applying for membership at this time carried a risk of “destabilising” northern Europe. [Al Jazeera] [Business Insider]

Andersson did not rule out joining NATO in principle, but said this “should only take place during a period of relative calm.” [The Local] In the meantime, Sweden is intensifying its cooperation with its neighbour Finland in several roundtable meetings in Sweden, Finland and the UK. [Euractiv]

Although a majority of Finns now want to join NATO, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, who is the commander-in-chief of the Finnish defence forces and holds significant influence over Finnish foreign policy, said that entering the alliance would cause a “major escalation risk” in Europe. [EiR Monthly March 2022] [FT]

Finland, unlike its Swedish neighbour, did not reduce military spending after the end of the Cold War. As a member of the European Union, it has long attempted to give more power to the EU’s mutual defence clause – article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty – which mimics NATO’s article 5 requirement of all members joining to defend any member who is attacked. However, the article’s wording allows for a range of differing interpretations regarding opt-outs, a vagueness that leads few EU member states to have much faith in the clause. [FT] [ECFR]

Despite ambiguity over the EU as a defensive union, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on March 6 that her country would hold a referendum on June 1 on whether to join the EU’s joint defence pact. [The Guardian]

A founding NATO member and an EU member since 1973, Denmark decided to opt out of European defence when it adopted the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. [ECFR]

Frederiksen also announced on March 6 that Denmark would increase its defence spending to reach 2 percent of its GDP, a NATO membership requirement that most members do not abide by. [Euronews] [Euractiv][NATO] 

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Denmark: Court sentences three Iranian separatists for spying for Saudi Arabia

A Danish court has sentenced three Iranians to prison sentences ranging from six to eight years for spying for Saudi Arabia in the European country. 

Habib Yabor Kabi was sentenced to eight years in prison, his brother, Tamim Farouk Beck, to seven years, and his son-in-law, Jacob Mohamed, to six years in prison for “promoting terrorism.” They are charged with supporting the activities of the armed wing of the Arab Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz. Kabi and Beck will be deported after serving their prison terms. [Euronews]

Denmark’s Security and Intelligence Service started investigating the three men in November 2018. In February, they were sentenced for “passing on information for Saudi intelligence services between 2012 and 2020.” They denied the charges. [Euronews]

The three men gathered information on organisations and individuals in Denmark and abroad, as well as on Iranian military affairs. They allegedly received EUR 2 million from Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services. [Euronews]

Denmark’s intelligence services started the investigation after suspecting that Iranian intelligence had planned to assassinate Kabi. Instead, they uncovered the spying activities of the three men, who are members of the separatist group composed of ethnic Arabs from Khuzestan, a region in southwestern Iran. The group considers themselves living “under Persian occupation.’’[Euronews]

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Denmark: Gov’t says sorry to Greenland children taken in 50s social experiment

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has apologised to six Greenlandic children who were forcibly brought to Denmark in 1951 as part of an “inhumane” social experiment. [Euronews] Frederiksen sent a written apology in December 2020 but delivered this to the six in person for the first time on March 9. [Reuters]

The group are the only ones still living of the 22 young people who were moved to the Danish mainland over 70 years ago to secure a “better life” for them. [Euronews]

The Inuit children were between four and nine years old when they were shipped to Denmark, then the colonial power which controlled Greenland, in an attempt to re-educate them as “little Danes.” [Reuters]

On her appointment in June 2019, Frederiksen pledged to seek forgiveness from children who were “exposed to being forced to be Danish.” [Guardian] In her official apology, she said: “You were part of something that should never have happened,” adding that the project was “inhumane and heartless.” [Guardian]

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Finland: Settlement proposed in labour dispute at forestry group

A mediator from Finland’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment has proposed a settlement to an ongoing dispute between forestry giant UPM and the Finnish Paperworkers’ Union.

Unionists have warned that a prolonged strike would force UPM to break business contracts to supply paper, and that this could lead to a Europe-wide paper shortage.

Some 3,000 members of the 14,000-strong paperworkers’ union have been on strike since January, calling for a collective agreement on wages and working conditions. A year earlier, UPM abandoned collective bargaining procedures and opted to negotiate separate agreements with different groups of workers as it tried to improve the group’s profitability. The mediator has given the union until April 14 to respond to the new proposal. [Helsinki Times] [Reuters]

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Sweden: Gov’t grants permission for mine on Sami land, despite protests

The Swedish government on March 22 approved an iron-ore mine on indigenous Sami land, despite protests and warnings by activists that the project will harm the environment and violate human rights. 

British mining company Beowulf had been seeking a mining licence for the project in northern Sweden since 2013. The northern part of the country, also called Lapland, is the home of the indigenous Sami people, who have been living there for centuries and who have long opposed the mining plans.

In February, Francisco Cali Tzay, UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and David R. Boyd, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment, urged Sweden not to grant the mining licence. [EiR Monthly March 2022] Critics of the mine in the Kallak region, also known as Gallok, say it stands in direct conflict with the ecosystem and the traditional reindeer herding practices of the Sami people. [Reuters]

Despite ongoing protests and concerns voiced by UN agency UNESCO and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the government granted permission for mining to Jokkmokk Iron Mines, a Swedish subsidiary of Beowulf. But the company will have to meet a string of environmental and other conditions. [dagens nyheter] [Reuters]

While Jokkmokk executives hope the mine will create 550 jobs, Sami people say the project will endanger their reindeer husbandry. [dagens nyheter]

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Sweden: Climate report says country too slow to meet emission goals

A body which advises and evaluates the performance of the Swedish government on climate goals has said that the country is not on track to meet its target of zero net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045. [nyheter24] [NA]

The Climate Policy Council said in its annual report, filed on March 16, that the pace of measures designed to protect the environment is too slow. [nyheter24] [sverigesradio]

While Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 26 percent since 1990, this decrease mainly took place between 2003 and 2014. Meanwhile, 2017 was the third consecutive year with a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions of less than 1 percent.  [Klimatpolitiska rådet] 

In 2019, Sweden’s reduction in such emissions was 2.4 percent, an improvement but still not within the target 6 to 10 percent. According to the climate council, Sweden also decreased its emissions in 2020, mainly due to restrictions that aimed to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. [Klimatpolitiska rådet]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

Austria suspends rule on compulsory COVID-19 shots

Austria, the first country in the EU to make vaccination against COVID-19 mandatory, suspended the controversial rules just over a month after they were introduced.

The government said on March 9 the requirement was no longer “proportional.” Health Minister Johannes Rauch said he would reassess the situation in three months. At the same time, he urged Austrians to continue to sign up for shots, adding that a new variant of the virus could emerge.

The mandate for all adults to be inoculated caused protests across Austria. Other EU member states were more hesitant about imposing such tough rules, with governments weighing the political cost. [EiR Monthly February 2022] 

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Croatia: MPs debate euro adoption as gov’t eyes 2023 switchover

The overall cost of Croatia adapting to switch to the European single currency, a step the government wants to take at the start of 2023, will be the equivalent of EUR 266 million, Finance Minister Zdravko Maric has said during a debate in parliament. [euractiv] [Bloomberg]

Croatia, the European Union’s newest member country, started a drive to join the eurozone after joining the bloc in 2013. Darko Klasic of the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), said in parliament that joining the eurozone would give Croatia and its economy a “geostrategic umbrella” in uncertain times. [euractiv]

Anka Mrak Taritas, a member of the opposition liberal party GLAS, said that among the advantages of the switch to the euro from the national currency, the kuna, would be a reduction of borrowing costs for Croatia, lower transaction fees, and export and foreign investment incentives. 

But according to Marijan Pavlicek of the Sovereignists, a right-wing party, many Croatians were worried they would be hit by a decline in purchasing power and an increase in everyday prices. [euractiv] [lexology] Croatia hopes the European Union will approve its bid to become a member of the eurozone this summer. [Bloomberg]

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Czech Republic: Prosecutors charge ex-PM in subsidy fraud case

Former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis has been charged by prosecutors in a subsidy fraud case. Police suspect him of temporarily transferring the Stork Nest farm close to Prague out of his Agrofert food, chemicals and media empire in 2007 in order to make it eligible for an EU subsidy for small firms worth around EUR 2 million euros. [Al Jazeera]

Babis, a billionaire populist and Eurosceptic who was in power from 2017 to 2021, has said the allegations are “politically motivated” and “absurd”. [Euronews]

Babis was ousted in his country’s October 2021 parliamentary elections. He was found by a European Commission audit to have breached conflict of interest rules while in office, though he denied wrongdoing. [Euronews]

Earlier, Czech MPs voted to lift Babis’s immunity from prosecution. In the lower house of parliament, 111 deputies out of a total of 176 who were present voted for the move. [abcnews] [Euronews]

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Hungary: Opposition hopes to oust right-wing PM Orban in national election

An alliance of opposition parties is hoping to oust Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, described by critics as the EU’s longest-serving illiberal strongman, in an April 3 parliamentary election amid concern that his opponents have an uneven playing field and worries that the vote could be rigged.

Orban, who has been accused of overseeing the autocratisation of Hungary during his 12 years in power, will face off against independent Peter Marki-Zay, who is backed by an alliance of six recently united opposition groups. Unlike other challengers who have attempted to topple Orban in the past, Marki-Zay is a conservative.

Opinion polls suggest the result of the vote could be close, even though government domination of the media gives Orban a considerable advantage. [BBC News] Meanwhile, the voter appeal of Orban’s ruling right-wing Fidesz party could suffer as a result of high inflation and an EU move to suspend funds for Hungary amid a dispute over democratic standards. [Reuters]

Orban, an admirer of “illiberal democracy” who has been accused of undermining the rule of law and media freedom, and of targeting the LGBT+ community, has repeatedly clashed with the European Union.

The incumbent premier has also been criticised by the opposition for his friendliness to Moscow. Marki-Zay has called him a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Hungary, which is a member of NATO, said on February 28 it would not allow lethal weapons to be transported through its territory to Ukraine, its neighbour to the east. Orban added, however, that Hungary unequivocally condemns the war in Ukraine. [Reuters]

Meanwhile, on March 9, the Hungarian prime minister said his country needed Russian gas and oil, and would not join the US in imposing sanctions on imports of such products, the Hungary Today website reported. “The Hungarian government will not allow Hungarians to be forced to pay the price of war,” Orban was cited as saying.

In the run-up to Hungary’s April 3 parliamentary ballot, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE-ODIHR) has recommended sending a full-scale election observation mission to the country. [EU Observer]

Previously, dozens of MEPs from various political groups wrote to the OSCE asking for a full-scale monitoring mission. They said they were concerned that the Hungarian vote “might not be held to the highest democratic standards.” Hungary’s Justice Minister Judit Varga accused the MEPs of trying to influence the result of the ballot. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

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Hungary: Ally of PM Orban chosen as country’s first woman president

The Hungarian parliament on March 10 elected a political ally of right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban as the country’s next president. Katalin Novak, aged 44, will be Hungary’s youngest ever head of state and the first woman to hold the post. [Euronews] 

She will take office on May 10, after the country’s April 3 parliamentary elections, and will replace Janos Ader, who will step down after two five-year terms. [Magyar Nemzet]

In a sign of disapproval at Novak being chosen president, left-wing MPs walked out of the parliamentary chamber. [Telex] [Mandiner]

Novak was the deputy leader of Orban’s governing Fidesz party between 2017 and 2021, and from 2018 was a member of parliament for Fidesz. From 2018 to 2020, she served as secretary of state for family and youth affairs, and as minister of state without portfolio for families from 2020 to 2021. She is the mother of three children and speaks four languages. [Telex] 

Novak is considered politically close to Orban. In 2021, she gave a speech at a Fidesz congress wearing an earring with the inscription “OV22”, standing for “Orban Viktor 2022”. [Telex] 

Hungary's presidents have mainly representative functions, and are expected to symbolise the unity of the nation and oversee the democratic functioning of the state. Laws approved by the parliament cannot enter into force without their signature – but presidents can only delay signing such laws, rather than rejecting them. [Fundamental Law of Hungary] [KEH]

The president is elected by parliament every five years by a two-thirds majority or, failing that, by a single-vote majority in a second round. The president can only be re-elected once, which is why incumbent Janos Ader has to be replaced. [Fundamental Law of Hungary]

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Hungary: Teachers in civil disobedience protest

Teachers in Hungary demanding a pay rise and a reduction in workload have been staging regular civil disobedience protests by refusing to hold classes.

The government met only one of their demands – the abolition of compulsory Covid-19 vaccinations for teachers – following a warning strike staged by about 20,000 teachers in January. [Telex] They then announced they would carry out an indefinite strike from March 16. According to Hungary's 1989 Act on Strikes, this would only be legal if the teachers provided a “still-sufficient service” during their protest, the exact meaning of which, in the absence of legislation to this effect, should have been agreed during pre-strike negotiations between the government and teachers’ unions. [Wolters Kluwer]

However, on February 11, before any agreement had been reached, Prime Minister Viktor Orban issued a decree, under powers available to him during a state of emergency introduced at the start of the epidemic, in which he defined the “still-sufficient service” as, among other things, supervising students in classrooms throughout the school day, without mixing or splitting groups, and teaching at least 50 percent of the normal lessons, and 100 percent of some subjects. [Magyar Közlöny] According to teachers, this made the legal strike barely noticeable and therefore meaningless. In protest against the decree, many teachers then turned to civil disobedience and have refused to hold classes since February 14, despite knowing that they are breaking the rules. [Telex]

On March 16, teachers also began their announced strike in accordance with the strike law, which was converted into a so-called rolling strike on March 25, meaning that teachers across the country will not strike at the same time, but in different schools each day. [Eduline]

The gross average salary of Hungarian secondary school teachers in 2020 was 2.9 percent higher than the national average, which is equivalent to EUR 1,150 a month. That of primary school teachers was 8.7 percent lower. [KSH] [KSH] Most teachers in Hungary are public employees.

In the final months before the country’s parliamentary elections on April 3, the right-wing government called the teachers’ protests a political move by the left. [HVG] [Telex] Although the protests are not formally linked to political parties, unions organising a January 31 strike asked teachers to wear a blue ribbon, which is a political symbol of the opposition candidate for prime minister, Peter Marki-Zay. [Magyar Nemzet] [Telex]

Education is an important domestic policy issue in Hungary. The last major teachers’ strike took place in 2016, with about 25,000 taking part. [HVG] Meanwhile, students held large protests in 2018, demanding, among other things, the restoration of freedom of expression in schools, which they claimed had ceased to exist. [Index]

In 2020, thousands of protesters took to the streets again fearing the loss of universities’ autonomy, in particular that of the University for Theatre and Film Arts in Budapest, after the government reorganised several public universities into private foundations. [Telex] [The New York Times] Another notable protest took place in 2017 in support of the Central European University, which moved partially from Budapest to Vienna because of a law amendment passed at that time. [BBC]

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Top Polish court rules European human rights convention not compatible with constitution

Poland’s top court ruled on March 10 that parts of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) are incompatible with the country’s constitution. [Euronews] [Notes from Poland] [TVN24]

The Constitutional Tribunal – which is made up largely of members appointed by Poland’s ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party – called into question the part of the ECHR that guarantees the right to fair trial. [Euronews] [Notes from Poland]

The verdict states that the European Court of Human Rights does not have the authority to “review the constitutionality and compatibility” of Polish laws on the judiciary with the human rights convention. [Euronews]

Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro had argued that the European Court of Human Rights overstepped its bounds in two separate rulings, prompting the review by the Tribunal in Warsaw. [Notes from Poland]

The first ruling, issued by the European court in June 2021, found that judges were unfairly dismissed amid an overhaul of Poland’s judicial system in 2017. The second, issued in November 2021, ruled in favour of two Polish judges who had complained that their appeals over discarded job applications were not considered in a fair and impartial manner. [Notes from Poland] [TVN24] 

The European Union has been at odds with Warsaw over sweeping changes to Poland’s legal system, which the bloc says undermine the political independence of the judiciary and erode rule-of-law principles. The Polish government maintains that the changes are needed to root out holdovers from the communist era. [EiR November 2021] [Euronews]

Tensions between Brussels and Warsaw heightened when Poland’s top court challenged the primacy of European law by ruling in October 2021 that parts of EU treaties are not compatible with the country’s constitution. [EiR November 2021]

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Poland: President vetoes move to tighten control over schools

The Polish president has vetoed a controversial education bill which critics claimed would have triggered a clampdown on liberal views during lessons as the country’s right-wing government strives to impose tougher control over schools.

Opponents said the law would have limited information available for young people on reproductive rights, banned teaching on LGBTQ+ issues and enforced the government’s ideological agenda in schools in a way that echoed the country’s communist past. 

Poland’s ruling nationalist-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which trumpets its support of traditional Christian values, has been accused by many EU politicians of demonising the LGBTQ+ community.

President Andrzej Duda, who hails from PiS, announced his veto on March 2, amid a Russian onslaught on Ukraine, Poland's neighbour to the east. The president said: “Today we need unity and agreement; we need to be focused on Poland's security.” [thenews.pl]

Education Minister Przemyslaw Czarnek had said the new rules were needed to “protect children from moral corruption.” Czarnek has been criticised for controversial pronouncements including an assertion that “LGBT ideology” comes from “the same roots as Nazism.” [Notes From Poland] [EiR Monthly, February 2022]

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Slovakia: Ex-PM Fico stirs controversy as support for NATO rises

Former Prime Minister Robert Fico, the leader of the populist centre-left Slovak Social Democratic party, has been criticised for questioning a decision by the government in Bratislava to send military aid to Ukraine. Fico said he was in favour of peaceful negotiations rather than sending “deadly ammunition.” He also caused controversy by claiming that the war in Ukraine “is not a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, it is a conflict between the United States and Russia.” [Pravda] [Aktuality] [Pravda] [Aktuality]

While support for NATO has risen among Slovaks, many have long been pro-Russian and anti-American. Polls as recent as last summer have shown that Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoyed a “favourable opinion” from 55 percent of Slovaks, according to news website Euractiv.

Fico was condemned for his comments by Slovak MEPs who, in an open letter, called for the Party of European Socialists (PES) to “reconsider” the membership of his Smer-SD party, claiming the former premier “assists the spread of Kremlin propaganda.” Referring to the armed forces of Nazi Germany, Fico has also compared a NATO deployment in Slovakia to a “welcoming of the Wehrmacht.” 

Smer-SD has been shifting away from leftist policies as it endorsed anti-vax positions and sought cooperation with the far-right Republika party, a grouping that has been labelled as “fascist” by Slovak MEPs. The Party of European Socialists, which in 2015 threatened Fico with suspension for anti-migrant rhetoric, has voiced support for him after his recent controversial comments, citing Smer-SD’s desire to work with “progressive parties.” [Euractiv] [Pravda] [Euractiv]

Responding to Fico, Slovak President Zuzana Caputova said: “The wave of aid and solidarity, including humanitarian aid, is very important, but civilians are dying in Ukraine.” [Pravda] Speaking on Slovak television, Caputova praised NATO and its “protective umbrella”, calling for further steps to support Ukraine, including technical assistance. [Pravda] 

NATO has announced the formation of multiple Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) battlegroups in Eastern Europe composed of multinational forces to defend the alliance’s eastern flank, including some 2,000 soldiers being deployed to Slovakia. Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad stressed the need for parliamentary support to approve the move. [Euractiv] 

Slovaks are far from unified in their attitude towards the North Atlantic Alliance. A survey conducted by Slovak broadcaster TV Noviny between February 22 and March 1 found that of 1,003 members of the public who were asked, 61 percent said that Slovakia should remain part of NATO, while 36 percent disagreed. But only 29 percent were in favour of American soldiers being deployed to Slovakia, while 67 percent were against. However, support for NATO is increasing among Slovaks. Data from Pewresearch found that in 2019, only 51 percent of respondents held a favourable view of the alliance, while 39 percent held unfavourable views. [TV Noviny] [Pravda] [Pewresearch]

Up to 2,000 US troops are set to train with 1,300 Slovak soldiers as well as alongside other NATO members in Eastern Europe until March 18 as part of NATO’s Sabre Strike exercises. [Reuters] [US Army Europe]

President Caputova blamed Russian “propaganda” and the Slovak opposition for splitting the opinions of political parties on the “arrival of soldiers” in Slovakia. [Pravda]

The Slovak government has pledged to donate EUR 32.2 million worth of military equipment to Ukraine, in the third such aid package approved by Bratislava. Slovakia has been added to Moscow’s list of countries that have taken “unfriendly actions” against the Russian Federation, along with all other EU member states. [TASR][Aljazeera][Reuters]

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Slovenia: Close race in parliamentary elections

Slovenia’s parliamentary elections take place on April 24, with the race expected to be close as the centre-left and green-leaning Freedom (Svoboda) Movement seeks to oust the governing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and its nationalist Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who has been accused of eroding democratic standards. [EiR Monthly February 2022] [Guardian]

Politico’s Poll of Polls aggregator from the beginning of March put the gap between the parties at just 2 percentage points, with the Freedom Movement at 22 percent and the SDS at 24 percent of the vote. [Politico] 

Critics claim Jansa has exploited the war in Ukraine for campaign purposes. Speaking to Delo newspaper, political analyst Andraz Zorko said that the military conflict came at the “right time” and provided a new topic to distract from domestic problems such as the coronavirus pandemic faced by the government in Slovenia. [Delo]

Surveys have indicated that in cooperation with the centre-left KUL coalition, the Freedom Movement led by Robert Golob could win up to 55 seats in the 90-seat legislature, resulting in a clear majority government. [Dnevnik] 

However, recent pronouncements suggest the Freedom Movement is unwilling to enter into alliances before the elections, despite Golob in January calling the KUL coalition a “natural ally.” [Reporter] [SloveniaTimes]

Golob, former director of the GEN Energija state power company, has promised a mix of “cross partisan ideas”, saying he was standing for respect, freedom, democracy and restoration of the rule of law. [Sta.si][Euractiv]

Jansa became premier in March 2020 following the collapse of Prime Minister Marjan Sarec’s minority centre-left government and his subsequent resignation. Jansa’s SDS formed a centre-right minority coalition government with parliamentary support from non-coalition parties. In 2021, his coalition narrowly survived an opposition-led impeachment attempt over alleged constitutional and legal violations, which Jansa called “totally absurd.” [Balkaninsight] [Reuters]

Experts have stressed the importance of turnout, arguing that lower numbers would give an advantage to established parties because these have built strong support among loyal voters. This would benefit the incumbent SDS and weaken new parties such as the Freedom Movement. Meanwhile, the need to build coalitions increases the power of smaller groupings, which are vital in this election given the large number of Slovenian political parties and the past failures of minority governments due to lack of parliamentary support. [EiR Monthly February 2022] [Delo] [Reuters]

Jansa’s ruling party is facing accusations of interfering in the RTV Slovenija public broadcasting channel as protests demand full editorial independence amid alleged political pressure. The “takeover”, as Delo journalist Janez Markes put it, of the public broadcaster involves changes to programme schedules and the removal of certain shows. Laurens C. Hueting, senior advocacy officer of the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, told VOAnews that the impact of the changes would be “to reduce RTV's ability to inform the public and scrutinise the government.” [Delo] [Total Slovenia News] [VOAnews] [Dnevnik] 

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

Cyprus: Moscow’s ambassador warns Russian tourists will avoid island

Moscow’s ambassador to Nicosia has warned that Russian tourists will stay away after Cyprus, an EU member, backed the bloc’s escalating sanctions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. [The National Herald] [Politico]

Russia has been traditionally Cyprus’ second largest tourist market after the UK, with around a 19 percent share, according to news site Financial Mirror.

Stanislav Osadchiy, Russia’s ambassador to the Greek Cypriot administration, warned on March 1 that Russian tourists “will not show up in Cyprus in the summer and... they will go to Turkey instead.” [Greek City Times] [AA]  

Referring to Nicosia’s support for sanctions, Panicos Demetriades, a former central banker of Cyprus, said: “It is as if we want to punish Russia and we are punishing ourselves.” [Politico].

Hundreds of thousands of Russian tourists flock to Cyprus each year, while Russia pumped in more than EUR 100 billion in 2020, accounting for around a quarter of all foreign investment in Cyprus, Politico Europe reported.

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Italy: MPs back bill to legalise assisted suicide 

The Italian parliament has voted to back a bill that would legalise assisted suicide for terminally ill patients. The legislation was passed on March 10 with a majority of 253 votes to 117 and one abstention.

The law would allow "voluntary medically assisted death" in cases where patients suffer from an irreversible illness that causes “absolutely intolerable physical and psychological suffering” under the condition that they have undergone palliative treatment before and are only being kept alive due to medical treatment. 

Such patients of legal age could end their lives through medication with the assistance of medical personnel. [euronews] [YRT News] The bill must now be voted on in the Senate.

Currently, assisting suicide is punishable with five to 12 years in prison. However, the Italian Constitutional Court ruled in 2019 that in the abovementioned cases, assisted suicide should be allowed. [The Guardian]

In February this year, the court blocked a potential referendum on the decriminalization of assisted suicide, and held that the legislature should decide on the matter. Around 750,000 people had signed a petition calling for a referendum. [Deutsche Welle]

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Italy seizes Russian oligarchs’ yachts and villas

The Italian government has seized yachts and villas belonging to a string of Russian oligarchs as part of sanctions imposed by the EU after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Billionaire businessman Andrey Melnichenko’s Sailing Yacht A, which has an estimated value of EUR 530 million, was seized in the northern Italian port of Trieste on March 12. Melnichenko is the owner of EuroChem Group, a major fertiliser producer, and the coal company SUEK. [The Guardian].

Some 30 extremely wealthy businessmen linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin have had their assets frozen by Italy. Among those who had yachts seized are Alexei Mordashov, president of Severgroup, a company involved in metallurgy and minerals, and Gennady Timchenko, an energy and infrastructure tycoon, and long-time friend and confidant of Putin.  [ANSA]

Elegant villas and other properties belonging to Oleg Savchenko, Alisher Usmanov and Vladimir Soloviev, who are considered some of Russia’s most influential oligarchs, have also been confiscated by the Italian authorities. [Avvenire]

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Malta: Ruling Labour party wins elections again, despite corruption woes

Prime Minister Robert Abela’s Labour Party has secured a third term in government after a landslide general election win, despite voter concerns over corruption.

Final results showed Abela’s party won the March 26 ballot with 55.1 percent of the vote – a more significant win than in 2017 or 2013, despite a low turnout, notching up a clear victory over the opposition Nationalist Party.

It was the first electoral test for Abela, a 44-year-old lawyer, since he took the helm of the Mediterranean island nation in January 2020. [Aljazeera]

The Electoral Commission estimated turnout at 85.5 percent, the lowest in a Maltese general election since 1955. [VOA News]

The campaign was relatively low-key, limited by Covid-19 restrictions, dogged by worries about the war in Ukraine, and hampered by an air of inevitability, as opinion polls pointed to a Labour landslide. [The Guardian]

The decisive win comes even though the government faced accusations of corruption. Abela took over as premier following the resignation of Joseph Muscat, who quit amid criticism of the government's handling of the murder of investigative anti-corruption journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. Her death in a 2017 car bombing sent shockwaves throughout Europe. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

A public inquiry last year concluded that the state should bear responsibility for creating a “culture of impunity” in which Galizia’s enemies felt they could silence her. [VOA News]

Abela campaigned on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his party’s economic record during its nine years in power, which saw solid economic growth and low unemployment. [Times of Malta]

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Portugal: Law that allowed Russian oligarch Abramovich to obtain nationality changed

A rabbi who helped Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich obtain Portuguese citizenship has been detained and told he cannot leave Portugal. At the same time, the country has modified a law that allows descendants of Sephardic Jews to be granted Portuguese citizenship.

Rabbi Daniel Litvak was detained on March 10 as part of an investigation into how Abramovich was granted citizenship. The Russian billionaire, who owns London football club Chelsea and who has been sanctioned by Britain after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, was granted Portuguese citizenship in April 2021 through a programme that gives residency to descendants of Sephardic Jews. Originating from communities in the Iberian Peninsula, Sephardic Jews were expelled from Portugal centuries ago. [BBC News] [Europe Monthly, Feb 2022]

Speaking on March 16, Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva said applicants would need to prove an “effective connection with Portugal”. He added that the new requirement aims to prevent the law from being “manipulated”. Documents providing links to Portugal, such as proof of previous visits, will be demanded. [Independent]

Before Christmas, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny posted tweets accusing Portuguese officials of taking bribes in return for granting Abramovich citizenship. Portugal’s foreign minister has denied the claims. [Europe Monthly, Feb 2022] Questions over possible irregularities in this process have been rumbling since Navalny’s tweets.

Silva told reporters that Portugal would implement EU sanctions against Abramovich but could not ban him from entering the country as he is a citizen. [Politico]

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Spain: Largest opposition party chooses new leader after scandal

Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP), the country's largest opposition grouping, on March 21 elected the president of the Galicia region, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, as its new leader following a scandal that threatened to tear the party apart. [El País] [Politico]

Party chief Pablo Casado resigned after Isabel Diaz Ayuso, the popular and charismatic president of the Madrid region, accused him of spying on her and trying to discredit her. [Politico]

Ayuso claimed Casado had hired a private detective to investigate whether she influenced a EUR 1.5 million contract for Covid masks awarded to an associate of her brother. Details of the contract surfaced last year, and it emerged that the process had circumvented tender standards. [The Local]

Casado, meanwhile, said the party was investigating his rival Ayuso because it had evidence that her brother had received thousands of euros in commission on the mask contract. The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office has started investigating the case. [Politico]

The PP has been having a turbulent year. Its problems could benefit the far-right Vox party, which has the third-strongest faction in parliament after the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and the PP. [Reuters]

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Spain: Far-right party Vox enters regional government coalition for first time

The far-right party Vox party, until recently considered a pariah in Spanish politics because of its ultranationalism, xenophobia, populism and authoritarianism, has entered a regional government alliance for the first time since its foundation in 2017.

According to Alfonso Fernandez Manueco, regional leader of the conservative People’s Party (PP) in the north-central Castilla y Leon region, an alliance between Vox and PP was the only option to avoid new regional elections, after PP failed to gain a standalone majority in a vote that took place on February 13.

Vox has grown significantly in strength in recent years and continues to rise in the polls. According to surveys in March, the party would win 19 percent of the vote in national elections, garnering 69 of the 350 seats in the lower house of parliament.

Vox is benefiting from crises in conservatives parties: the People’s Party, Spain’s main opposition grouping, has faced an internal battle for its leadership, whereas Ciudadanos is still searching for a political identity since its defeat in the 2019 national election. [Antena3] [El Pais]

Vox’s entry to a regional government has been strongly criticised by left-wing parties. The Socialist Party on its official Twitter channel described the alliance with the People’s Party as “outrageous”, while several left-wing commentators said that racists, sexists and homophobes had entered Spanish institutions. [Público]

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Spain: Right groups accuse police of brutality against migrants in Melilla exclave

Spain’s interior minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, has defended police accused by international human right associations of brutality against migrants who stormed a border fence which separates the Spanish exclave of Melilla in north Africa from Morocco.

Accusations poured in after Spanish national television broadcaster RTVE published a video showing police beating and pepper-spraying a young sub-Saharan African man as he climbed over the border fence. According to Grande-Marlaska, the use of the violence was “proportionate.”

Police faced two mass surges on March 2 and 3 during which 841 migrants succeeded in entering Spanish territory. According to the Spanish press, about 3,700 migrants took part in the surges and some of them attacked police using hooks and sticks. Others reportedly screwed bolts to their shoes to help them cross the fence and defend themselves from border patrols. [The Guardian] [ El Mundo] [RTVE]

Virginia Alvarez, an expert on refugees and migration for Amnesty International, described the actions of the police as a “deplorable excessive use of force.” Meanwhile, Andalucia’s Pro-Human Rights Association said the Spanish government should provide an explanation about “the summary returns that are taking place.”  [The Guardian]

The Spanish government’s stance on migrants in Melilla contrasts sharply with the protection it has offered Ukrainian refugees with a lack of financial resources who need help after their country was invaded by Russia. [El País]

Right-wing parties called for the resignation of Grande-Marlaska, who is a member of Spain’s left-wing governing coalition. Grande-Marlaska defended the “extraordinary” police operation in Melilla, stressing that 50 officers were injured. According to Grande-Marlaska, other assaults have been avoided recently thanks to the efforts of the Spanish police and its coordination with Moroccan authorities. [El Periodico] [RTVE]

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Spain: MPs vote for commission to probe sex abuse in Catholic Church

The Spanish parliament has voted for the establishment of a commission to investigate child sexual abuse within the country’s Catholic church. The decision comes after a newspaper investigation revealed hundreds of alleged abuse cases between 1943 and 2018. [EiR Monthly March 2022]

Although the Spanish Catholic Church started an investigation in 2020 that identified more than 500 cases, it strongly opposed an independent inquiry. Now, Cardinal Jose Omella, the head of the Spanish Church, has given a guarantee that it is willing to cooperate with the commission backed by parliament.

The new probe was approved by a majority of 286 MPs, with 51 opposing and two abstaining. The proposal came from the ruling Socialist Party and the PNV Basque Party, and still needs to be approved by the Spanish government. But in a Twitter post, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the inquiry was valuable as a first step in trying to “repair the pain of the victims”. 

Spain, unlike other European countries, has not yet held a major inquiry into allegations of sexual abuse of minors by Catholic priests. [euronews] [Reuters]

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Spanish former king considers return from exile as probe dropped

Juan Carlos I, the former king of Spain, has floated a return to Spain following the termination of financial investigations which led to his self-imposed exile to Abu Dhabi in 2020. [antena 3] [France 24] [Malay Mail]

Prosecutors on March 2 shelved nearly 20 months of investigations into possible secret offshore funds, kickback payments and unlawful business deals related to Juan Carlos. [eldia] [El País]

While prosecutors confirmed they had found “fiscal irregularities,” they cited insufficient evidence, the statute of limitations, and sovereign immunity when they archived the probe, which began in 2020 with allegations of possible illegal commissions linked to a high-speed rail project in Saudi Arabia. The project was awarded to a Spanish consortium in 2011. [Noticias Por el Mundo] [The Guardian] [France 24]

The former king has since hinted at “frequent” return visits to Spain but said that in the meantime he will remain in Abu Dhabi, where he says he has enjoyed “magnificent hospitality.” [ABC.es]

Meanwhile, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, has called on the former king to shed light on the “disappointing” allegations brought against him. [Agencia EFE]

Separately, the English High Court has denied Juan Carlos’s appeal for sovereign immunity from a lawsuit brought against him in December by his ex-lover. The 84-year-old former king could now be called to a London court to face allegations filed by businesswoman Corinna Larsen, also known as Corinna Wittgenstein-Sayn. [Euractiv] [FT] [El Plural] [Libertad digital] [EiR Monthly January 2022]

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Spain: Truckers’ strike disrupts supply chains

Spanish truckers calling for lower taxes and lighter regulations partially disrupted the country’s supply chains after starting a strike on March 14. According to organisers, the work stoppage was triggered by record diesel prices, which have made the transport industry unprofitable for many. [El Pais] [El Mundo] [Reuters]  

The strike was organised by the Platform for the Defence of Transport, a group of truck drivers and owners, but was not backed by Spain's main transport trade unions and road hauliers’ federations. [Euronews]

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that marginal groups without broader support were responsible for the protests. [Bloomberg] Transportation Minister Raquel Sanchez linked the strike to the far right, but organisers denied affiliation to any party. [Reuters] The Interior Ministry deployed more than 23,000 police on the roads to maintain the country's food supply and security after reports that protesting truckers attacked some non-striking hauliers in the first days of the walkout. [El Pais] [ABC News] [Euronews]

As a result of the strike, several companies reported shortages of fresh goods, including dairy products, fish and meat, and even of raw materials such as iron ore. The construction and health sectors were also affected, as medical tests, among other things, could not reach laboratories smoothly. [El Pais] [Euronews] [El Mundo] [Bloomberg] [Reuters]

The strike lost momentum after March 24, when the government announced a EUR 1 billion aid package for hauliers, although the Platform for the Defence of Transport did not call off the stoppages until the end of the month. [Reuters] [Reuters] [Euronews]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

Armenia: New president pledges to strengthen national unity during inauguration

Armenia’s new president Vahagn Khachatrian vowed to strengthen national unity as the economist and veteran politician was sworn into the largely ceremonial role during a special session of the nation’s parliament on March 13. [RFE/RL]

“We are witnessing rapidly changing geopolitical developments as a result of which current global security systems are being transformed,’’ Khachatrian said. “Today, more than ever, we need wisdom, confidence, stability and unity.’’  [RFE/RL] 

Former President Armen Sarkissian resigned on 23 January, saying he didn’t have enough power under the country’s constitution to implement change, a move that sparked criticism from different political parties. The politician and former Armenian prime minister from 1996-97 said he had been thinking about resigning for a long time.  [EiR Monthly February 2022]

After amendments to Armenia’s constitution in 2015 transformed it into a parliamentary republic, the country’s president has largely held ceremonial powers while the prime minister is the head of the executive. Still, the president is considered to be the head of state. [RFE/RL] 

In his inaugural speech, Khachatrian said he was taking office at a pivotal time for Armenia amid “complicated regional and international challenges.” Two opposition factions boycotted the inauguration. [RFE/RL] 

Khachatrian, 62, served as mayor of Yerevan from 1992 to 1996 during former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s rule. He had been a staunch political ally of Ter-Petrosian until he joined Nikol Pashinian’s government in August. [RFE/RL] 

Khachatrian was nominated for the position by Pashinian’s ruling Civil Contract party after the sudden resignation in January by Sarkisian, who had been the country’s president since 2018. [RFE/RL] 

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Belarus: Opposition leader criticises constitutional referendum, wants more Western sanctions 

Belarus’s main opposition leader criticised a nationwide referendum that strengthened President Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power and abolished a section of the constitution defining its status as a “nuclear-free zone,” as she called on the West to impose more sanctions against the regime. 

Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya said the new constitutional amendments were a  “huge threat to the whole of Europe” now that Russia could deploy nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil whenever it deemed necessary. About 800 people were arrested during protests against the referendum that ditched the country’s non-nuclear status. [Euronews][TheLeader]

Belarusians don’t “want their country to become a pariah state following the Kremlin’s madness,” Tsikhanouskaya said. [MSN]

Several governments and civil society groups said the referendum failed to meet international standards. The opposition said the elections were rigged, considering that the country’s citizens showed no clear inclination towards supporting the initiatives with neither an open debate nor an election campaign around the referendum. 

According to the Belarusian central election committee, 82,86% voted in favour of the proposed changes, which will enter into force on 15 March. [RFE/RL]

Western nations criticised the referendum. 

“They mean the people of Belarus can be dragged into wars they do not want to fight against a neighbouring country with which many Belarusians have close ties,” Julie Fisher, the U.S. special envoy for Belarus, told RFE/RL's Belarus Service in an interview. “It is clear this is not what the people of Belarus want.” [RFE/RL]

The Canadian government said the constitutional referendum was “an attack on democracy and a threat to security and stability in the entire region,’’ which Canada will therefore not recognize the results of this referendum.

“The Lukashenko regime has used a campaign of fear and repression to influence the vote and suppress democratic opposition,” Melanie Joly, Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, said in a statement on February 28. “Independent voices and media are being silenced, political prisoners remain behind bars, and tens of thousands of Belarusians have been exiled.”

The new constitution strengthens the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, which is constituted by government representatives, industry leaders and other high state officials with personal affiliations to Lukashenko, and secured his power base. [Euronews][Afisha Daily]

Tsikhanouskaya, who was forced to leave the country after Lukashenko won a re-election for a sixth term in August 2020, urged Western countries to impose even tougher sanctions on Lukashenko, who has allied himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia conducts its bloody invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. [TheStar]

Lukashenko “has back-stabbed Ukrainians, but also put in jeopardy the very existence of the Belarusian state,” she told an Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence on March 10. “The regime sold Belarus to Russia to keep their own power, and as a result, Belarus is under de facto Russian occupation,” she said virtually from London.

Tsikhanouskaya also said she was putting together a transitional cabinet, made up of people both inside and in exile from Belarus. “We will be seeking support from Canada for it. You can treat it as the government in exile,” she said. [MSN]

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Russia: Pro-war rally held by Putin gathers over 200,000 people

Some 200,000 people turned out - possibly not all of them willingly - for a rally on March 18 in Moscow to mark eight years since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, with the gathering quickly becoming a show of support for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine. 

In front of the flag-waving crowd at Luzhniki stadium - Moscow's largest -  Putin said his “special military operation” was needed in order to stop the “genocide” of Russian-speaking people living in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Such claims have been widely dismissed by the West.

Putin also praised what he described as unity among Russians, adding: “We have not had unity like this for a long time.” [The Guardian] [BBC] [Times of Israel]

Images broadcast on state television showing thousands of Russians united in their patriotism may not have been all they seemed. Will Vernon, a journalist for BBC News, attended the rally and talked to students and employees. He reported on Twitter that people working in the public sector and state institutions said they were pressured to attend the concert by their employers. 

“Many seemed embarrassed or ashamed to be there,” Vernon said. Students were offered a day off from lectures so they could go to the rally, he added.

However, overall trust in Putin among Russians has risen from 69 percent in January to 71 percent in February, according to a survey by independent pollster Levada-Center released in February. 

Moreover, the amount of people in Russia supporting the “special military operation” in Ukraine - 58 percent - significantly outweighs the number of those who oppose it - 23 percent, according to a survey conducted by a group of independent sociologists and IT specialists.  [FiveThirtyEight] [Washington Post]

While Putin was speaking at the rally, the broadcast of the event on state television was suddenly interrupted, and switched to a pre-recorded clip showing Russian artist Oleg Gazmanov singing patriotic songs. Some ten minutes later, Putin’s speech was re-aired in its full length. Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, blamed a technical glitch for the interruption. However, such cut-offs are unusual on Russian state television. [The Guardian] [BBC]

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Ukraine: Zelensky says 11 political parties banned for alleged links to Russia 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on March 20 that 11 political parties have been suspended because of their alleged links with Russia. [The Guardian][Axios]

The country’s national security and defence council made the decision to ban the parties from any political activity. Zelenksy said in a video released via Telegram that “any activity of politicians aimed at splitting or collaborating will not succeed.” [The Guardian][Axios]

One of the political parties banned, the Opposition Platform for Life, has 44 seats in the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament, making it the second-largest bloc in the war-torn country. About 19 percent of Ukrainians support the party, which draws heavily on members from the Russian-speaking eastern region of Ukraine. Viktor Medvedchuk, who reportedly has a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the leader of the opposition party for life. [Yahoo]

Most of the other parties affected were small, and included the Shariy Party, Nashi, Opposition Bloc, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialists Party and Volodymyr Saldo Bloc. [The Guardian][Axios]

“The national security and defence council decided, given the full-scale war unleashed by Russia, and the political ties that a number of political structures have with this state, to suspend any activity of a number of political parties for the period of martial law,” Zelenksy said. [The Guardian][Axios]

In March, Zelensky closed three television networks owned by regional oligarchs that he accused of peddling Moscow-funded content that was hostile to Ukraine’s national interest. Their coverage is “propaganda financed by the aggressor country that undermines Ukraine” on its path toward European Union membership and the NATO alliance, Zelensky tweeted. [Yahoo]

The outlets had been accused of propping up the Opposition Platform for Life. The EU disagreed with that move, with its foreign policy head Josep Borrell writing in a statement on Wednesday: “Given the scale of disinformation campaigns affecting Ukraine including from abroad, this should not come at the expense of freedom of media.”  [Yahoo]

(gc/pk)

Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

Albania: PM Rama’s ruling Socialist Party wins five of six by-elections against opposition  

Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party won five of the six by-elections on March 6 against a divided opposition in a crushing defeat that consolidated the political power of his ruling party.

The elections “gave the Socialist Party neither more nor less than what we expected,’’ Rama said in a statement posted on Facebook. The results were even better than “our projections showed,” he said. [BalkanInsight]

The main opposition Democratic Party under Lulzim Basha did not win any of the by-elections, which had a voter turnout of about 30 percent, according to the Central Election Commission. Basha told journalists that the disastrous election results were “an anomaly’’ and that the country needed election reform. [BalkanInsight]

The Democratic party has been mired by political in-fighting, which has damaged the party’s reputation and endangered its future, according to experts.

The DP’s internal strife began when chairman Basha ousted Sali Berisha, the country’s former prime minister and chairman of the Democratic Party, from the party’s parliamentary group. [BalkanInsight] [BalkanInsight][EiR Monthly January 2022]

Berisha did not accept Basha’s decision and started a campaign which eventually divided the DP into two factions fighting over the control of the party. Police in Albania used tear gas and water cannons to disperse hundreds of protesters on January 8 after they broke into the headquarters of the Democratic Party as an internal conflict over the leadership within the main opposition party spilled into the streets of Tirana. 

A power vacuum, resignations, death, arrests and dismissals have left six municipalities without elected mayors. Voters in the municipalities of Durres, Lushnje, Diber, Vora, Shkodra and Rrogozhin elected new mayors after some officials elected in 2019 resigned over allegations of criminal pasts, and for other reasons. [EiR Monthly February 2022]. [BalkanInsight]

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Albania:  Protests erupt across the country as higher commodity prices hurt Albanians

Thousands of Albanians protested across the country for several days demanding that the government take action to bring down rising fuel and basic commodities prices as global supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine disrupt the flow of trade across Europe. [BalkanInsight][IntelliNews].

The protesters demanded that Tirana cut fuel taxes to cushion the blow to consumers and accused the government of profiting by not reducing taxation. The largest protests took place in Tirana but also occurred in the towns of Durres, Lushnje, Korca, Skhoder, and elsewhere. [APN][ABC].

“Replacing the resources that have been provided by Russia for so many years is extremely complicated,’’ Prime Minister Edi Rama said, adding that protests taking place in Europe against economic conditions work to Russia’s advantage by diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. [AlbanianDailyNews] [RTSH]

Democrat MP of former Prime Minister Sali Berisha’s Re-establishment Commission, Edmond Spaho, warned that the economic crisis could worsen without government actions. He criticised recent financial measures, saying they were unrelated to the current rise in prices. [AlbanianDailyNews].

Rama warned that there could be an increase in the price of electricity for household consumers. The government is looking at the possibility of reviewing electricity bills for those household subscribers who “consume a lot of energy.’’  [AlbanianDailyNews].

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Albania: Government grants 30-year lease for beachfront development to husband of foreign minister

The Albanian government granted a 30-year lease to develop a lucrative beachfront property on the so-called Southern Riviera to a company with connections to the husband of the country’s foreign minister. 

AGTTC Hotel Management, which has been assigned “strategic investor” status, was granted the lease by the government. The company has links to AG.TTC Sh.p.k., which is owned by Artan Gaci, a former Socialist Party MP married to Foreign Minister Olta Xhacka, Balkan Insight reported. [BalkanInsight][Politiko]

Gaci told Balkan Insight that he is the strategic investor, while AGTTC Hotel Management is the company that will manage the property. When asked about a possible conflict of interest, Gaci claimed that it was for that reason he involved the other company.[BalkanInsight]

“To avoid a conflict of interest, I found another company with experience in this field, which will manage the hotel and the beach, where I am simply the investor,” Gaci told BIRN. “I have discussed the matter with many lawyers,” he added, acknowledging that the other company “was selected by” him.[BalkanInsight]

Albania forbids members of government, like Xhacka, from benefiting from state funds or properties. [BalkanInsight]

It was “unfair” that he should be penalised because he is married to Xhacka, Gaci said. “There is no abuse here, I am suffering consequences just because I am the husband of a minister.”

The government of Prime Minister Edi Rama launched the strategic investor status to attract investors to help develop the country’s coastline. Investors with the status benefit in terms of state investments and properties. 

Some of these projects have angered locals, who claim they are being robbed by people with political connections. [BalkanInsight]

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Albanian capital’s municipality renames street with Russian embassy to ‘Free Ukraine’

The municipality in Albania’s capital Tirana has approved unanimously to rename the street where the Russian, Ukrainian, Serbian and Kosovo embassies are located to “Free Ukraine Street” in support of Kyiv’s resistance to Moscow’s invasion. 

“Our generation will be marked by this bloody Russian aggression, and the heroic resistance of Ukraine should be remembered in our public places,” Tirana mayor Erion Veliaj said. The Russian embassy staff “will have to work, live and get their mail at a Free Ukraine street address,” Veliaj said. [BalkanInsight][Euronews][Gmanetwork]. 

There were no immediate reactions from the Russian embassy, though Russia on March 7 included Albania on a list of “enemy states.” [Balkaninsight]

NATO member Albania has joined other European countries in introducing sanctions against Russia. It  has closed its airspace to all aircraft registered in Russia, excluding cases in which flights need to take place for emergency, humanitarian or medical purposes. [BalkanInsight][Swissinfo].

“Economic sanctions include restrictive measures in finance, energy, transport, and technology,” Albania’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Olta Xhacka, said. 

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Bulgaria: Supreme Judicial Council postpones proceedings to dismiss chief prosecutor

Bulgaria’s Supreme Judicial Council postponed on March 10 a government request to dismiss the country’s chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev, citing the need for a clear set of rules before the proceedings begin.  [BTA]. 

“Without rules we will reach a dead end which we won’t be able to get out of,’’ Georgi Cholakov, chairman of the Supreme Administrative Court, said. “We need to have rules.” [RadioFreeEurope][BTA] 

The Bulgarian government wants to move ahead with plans to remove Geshev as part of broader judicial reforms and the implementation of anti-corruption policies. Justice Minister Nadezhda Yordanova said on February 8 that she will seek the dismissal of Geshev as ‘’one of the important measures’’ for changing the judiciary, adding that the decision was made based on "an analysis of the actions and inaction.” [EiR Monthly March 2022].

Yordanova listed nine violations by Geshev,  including overlooking police brutality cases during the anti-corruption protests in 2020, public disregard of the law, and inaction against corruption  [RadioFreeEurope].

Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court approved Yordanova’s request and sent a letter to the council to move forward with their proceedings. The initial request, filed in the summer of last year and dismissed by the Supreme Judicial Council, was part of the government’s efforts to eliminate corruption. Changing the judiciary power is one of the first steps in the anti-corruption plan of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov [EiR Monthly March 2022].

Bulgaria is ranked as the most corrupt European Union member-state by Transparency International, an anti-graft organisation. The vast corruption in the state is preventing foreign investment and membership in the Schengen area [EiR Monthly March 2022].

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Bulgaria: Government moves forward with indictment of former PM, finance minister

Bulgaria’s Ministry of Internal Affairs will move ahead with the indictments of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, former Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov and the spokesperson of Borisov's party GERB, Sevdelina Arnaudova. [RadioFreeEurope]

The three were initially detained on March 17 on extortion charges. The Sofia City Prosecutor’s Office had them released the next day, arguing that there was insufficient evidence to continue to detain them. [RadioFreeEurope]. 

“Once again we are witnessing sabotage by the prosecution,” Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said after their release.  [RadioFreeEurope].

Borisov’s lawyer said he would appeal any indictment, arguing that the former prime minister’s house was searched without sufficient reason. Police searched the property for evidence related to EUR 285 million that allegedly went missing from the state budget. [BalkanInsight] [RadioFreeEurope]

The arrest of the three former officials coincided with the visit of European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kovesi to Sofia. Kovesi said there were more than 120 cases of corruption and mismanagement of European funds by the state, making Bulgaria the largest target of investigation by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPP0). [BalkanInsight][RadioFreeEurope]

EPPO released a statement during Kovesi’s visit, saying that they had received ‘’serious allegations of fraud with EU funds and systemic corruption, involving top officials.” [Euractiv].

The statement was issued after Vasil Bozhkov, a gamnling boss who has been under investigation for two years but hiding in Dubai, said that he had testified and given “indisputable evidence of the greatest racketeering in the history of Bulgaria.”  The Sofia City Prosecution’s Office has asked to question Bozhkov about his testimony. [RadioFreeEurope].

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Bulgaria: Government ends so-called golden passport scheme for foreign investors

Bulgaria has ended the country’s so-called golden passport scheme granting citizenship to investors in a move that was welcomed by the European Commission as the decision allows Sofia to attain its Schengen membership. 

Bulgaria's Chamber of Representatives voted unanimously on March 24 to end the "golden passport" practice due to concerns about money laundering and criminal activity. Foreign investors were granted Bulgarian citizenship after investing EUR 500,000. [RadioFreeEurope]

The European Commission has been highly critical of the immigration loophole in Bulgaria. The commission said that granting citizenship through investment is “objectionable from an ethical, legal and economic point of view, and poses serious security risks.” [Nova].[BalkanInsight]

The policy had prevented Bulgaria from attaining its Schengen membership and the easing of visa requirements for the US. Officials had indicated that they wanted to end the policy for several years but one of the opposition parties had voted against it until the end of last year.[RadioFreeEurope]. 

After Cyprus stopped the practice in 2020, Bulgaria and Malta remained as the last EU member states to maintain citizenship through investment.  [BalkanInsight].

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Russian ambassador apologises after offending Bulgarian citizens in Facebook post

Russia’s ambassador apologised on March 6 for insinuating that Bulgaria was a “bedpan” of the West in a comment that was viewed in Sofia as part of Moscow’s increasingly aggressive social media campaign against the country. [RadioFreeEurope].

After intense Bulgarian criticism about her Facebook comment, which refers to a shallow pan for bedridden people to use, Elena Mitrofanova apologised to Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. Petkov asked the ambassador during a meeting to follow norms of diplomatic communication and to stop interfering in the country’s internal affairs. [RadioFreeEurope].

Mitrofanova made her comment on Facebook in a post explaining why the Russian embassy had created a new Telegram channel. She said the new platform was started to counter the “informational aggression from Washington and its Euro-Atlantic bedpans.”

Since she took her position in 2021 amid criticism by Bulgarian politicians, the Russian ambassador has used sharp and critical language against Sofia on its Facebook page. [RadioFreeEurope]. 

In a speech on March 3 for Bulgaria’s Independence Day celebration, she caused further criticism by comparing the Bulgarian emancipation from Ottoman slavery to Moscow’s military operation in the Donbas region in Ukraine. She asked Bulgarians to look at the war in Ukraine without letting “anti-Russian propaganda” cloud their judgement. [RadioFreeEurope]

Petkov pushed back against the comparison. “Our gratitude to Russian citizens for the liberation cannot be disgraced by comparisons with today’s fratricidal war in Ukraine,” he said. [RadioFreeEurope].

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Bulgaria: PM removes defence minister after comments about Russian war in Ukraine

Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov fired his defence minister on March 1 after comments the official made appeared to minimise the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

The decision was taken after Stefan Yanev described the Russian war in Ukraine as a “military operation” in a post on Facebook. Bulgaria cannot have a defence minister who is “unable” to use the word “war” when describing the conflict in Ukraine, he said. [BalkanInsight]. [RadioFreeEurope].

On the same day that Yanev was removed, the ruling coalition appointed Dragomir Zarkov, the country’s NATO ambassador in Brussels since 2019 and an experienced diplomat, as the defence minister. Zarkov, “knows the security system and the system knows him,” he said. [RadioFreeEurope].

President Rumen Radev criticised the decision. The replacement of Yanev “in the midst of a military crisis in the region is a risk for which the ruling coalition is responsible,” he said. There were small protests in Sofia after the decision. [BalkanInsight]

Radev appointed Yanev as interim prime minister during the two caretaker governments last year. He became a defence minister when Petkov took office in December. [BalkanInsight].

(Ib/gc)

Bulgaria: Government tries to calm fears of commodity supplies shortages due to fighting in Ukraine

The Bulgarian government has tried to calm fears after thousands of people stockpiled cooking oil and flour amid fears across Europe of commodity shortages due to supply disruptions being caused by the Russian war in Ukraine. 

Prime Minister Kiril Petkov made several public statements reassuring the public that there were no supply shortages after social media posts showed thousands of Bulgarians in long lines at supermarkets and gasoline stations as they hoarded essential items. [DarikNews] [BNR] [RadioFreeEurope] 

“Do not panic,’’ Petkov said on March 14. “We all must believe that we have a government that works and provides systemic solutions to problems.’’ [RadioFreeEurope]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has closed grain ports in the Black Sea, causing concerns about food shortages in nations across Europe that depend on imports. Wheat futures spiked to a 14-year high in March as traders assessed the impact of the war on supplies. [MSN]

The magnitude of Russia and Ukraine grain production is "the bigger issue" of concern, Johannes Schlingmeier, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange, said on Yahoo Finance Live. On whether Russia and Ukraine’s grain stock could be replaced, Schlingmeier said: "I doubt that that’s the case.” [MSN]

Finance Minister Asen Vasilev blamed the opposition and the media for the hysteria, warning that concerns about flour and sugar supplies could be stoked again in the coming weeks. [DarikNews] [SofiaGlobe].

The hysteria has “no grounds,’’ Vasilev said. “We see an unjustified increase in prices by some retailers for a day or two after which everything calms down.” [SofiaGlobe][RadioFreeEurope]. 

Bulgaria isn’t the only country in Southeastern Europe experiencing a spike in basic commodity prices and hoarding due to the war in Ukraine.  Videos posted on social media in Turkey showed people pushing each other in supermarkets to grab cans of sunflower oil out of fear that the price would increase or that the supply would run out.

In Kosovo, police promised to prosecute suppliers who hoarded goods with the aim of manipulating prices. The government closed two supermarket warehouses in March, according to the Ministry of Trade.

The country’s February consumer price index, which measures changes in the cost of food, housing, gasoline, utilities, and other goods, accelerated by 7.9 percent annually,  the largest increase in 40 years. The price of cooking oil jumped to EUR 3.49 from EUR 2.25.

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North Macedonia: Government moves to lower VAT, excise tax as commodity prices surge

North Macedonia sent on March 10 amendments to laws regulating Value Added Tax (VAT) and the excise tax to parliament as the government seeks to decrease prices of food, fuel and oil derivatives. [Euractiv]

The government pledged to remove the VAT on basic food products and reduce VAT and lower excise duties on fuels that will cost about EUR 400 million. This includes EUR 310 million in direct fiscal expenditures for the government and EUR 90 million in lost revenue.  [Euractiv]

The government will remove VAT and freeze margins on the sale of bread, sugar, flour, edible sunflower oil, milk, meat, rice and eggs. Currently, VAT on these food products is 5 percent.  [Euractiv]

The government will also remove customs duties on all imports of basic food products and scrap VAT on imported natural gas, electricity, thermal and cooling energy. VAT on fuels will be lowered to 10 percent from 18 percent. [Euractiv]

The changes are expected to limit the rise in price increases, Prime Minister Dimitar Kovacevski said.  [Euractiv]

(gc)

Serbia: Supporters of Putin rally in Belgrade to back Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Thousands of Serbians have joined multiple demonstrations in the capital Belgrade in support of Putin and Russia over three weeks, frequently appealing to Russians as "brothers." [AA][RFERL]

During the pro-Russia rallies, protesters chanted pro-Russian and anti-NATO slogans as they marched through the streets. They held Orthodox Christian icons, Russian flags, and photos of Putin. [BalkanInsight][France24][Reuters][YeniSafak].

Some Serbians accuse Ukrainian of opposing Orthodox Christianity and supporting Kosovo, whose 2008 declaration of independence is supported by more than 100 countries but opposed by Belgrade and Moscow. [RFERL]

Several Serbian right-wing political groups with historical and religious ties to Russia have attended the rallies. The far-right People’s Patrols, a group hostile to immigrants and refugees crossing Serbia en route to Western Europe, were at the rallies. [BalkanInsight][YeniSafak]

“We want to support the Russian and Belarusian people in the fight against the Nazi and pro-Western government in Kyiv,’’ On February 25, the group said on Instagram. “Since the Western Nazis are not interested in this, it is logical that the Russian and Belarusian people will take justice into their own hands.” [BalkanInsight]

Local members of Russia's "Night Wolves" motorcycle club also  joined these rallies. They are known to have close ties to Putin and with a history of fighting in Ukraine on the side of pro-Russian separatists during the 2014 Crimea crisis and war over the Donbas region. [Reuters]

There has also been support for Ukraine, with a smaller number of participants protesting in front of Russia's embassy [AP][France24][Reuters].

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Serbia: Kosovo Serbs set to vote in Serbian elections within Serbia

Kosovo Serbs will be able to vote in Serbia’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, due to be held on 3 April, according to the Republic of Serbia’s election commission. [Balkan Insight]

The commission said on 24 March that voters from Kosovo, Serbia’s breakaway province which declared its independence in 2008, would be able to vote in polling stations in the Serbian municipalities of Bujanovac, Kursumlija, Raska and Tutin. [Serbia Election Commission]

The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kutri, said in a letter to Kosovo’s ambassador to the European Union that Serbia acted “illegally” by attempting to hold an election in Kosovo “as if our government did not exist.’’ [Euronews]

The decision comes after no agreement was reached between the governments of Kosovo and Serbia on whether polling stations would be allowed to operate in the breakaway province. Earlier this year, Kosovo’s parliament passed a resolution that denied polling stations for Serbia’s national referendum to be opened in Kosovo. The referendum was held on 15 January. [EiR Monthly February 2022] [AP]

In response, protests led by ethnic Serbs have taken place in the Kosovar towns of Mitrovica and Gracanica. Hundreds of protesters assembled in an attempt to pressure the government of Kosovo to allow them to vote in the upcoming election. [Al Jazeera]

The NATO Quint, an informal group of five leading NATO powers, expressed their disappointment that Kosovo Serbs would not be able to vote in Kosovo. In a joint statement by the embassies of the United States, France, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the states said that “Kosovo’s Government failed to demonstrate its commitment to the principle of protecting the civil and political rights of all its citizens.” 

The embassies added that the attitude of Kosovo’s government “is not in line with our values and principles and will undermine its European aspirations.” [US Embassy in Kosovo] [Balkan Insight]

(nw/gc)

Serbia:  President Vucic claims Kosovo is ethnically cleansing Serbs 

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic claimed that Kosovo was ethnically cleansing Serbs from the country after two Kosovo Serb officials were detained over corruption. [Euractiv]

Kosovo police arrested a customs officer and a former police officer suspected of having helped a former mayor to accept bribes for issuing illegal construction permits in the Sharr mountain in the southern Serb-majority municipality. Former mayor Bratislav Nikolic faces charges of accepting more than EUR 1.3 million in bribes in exchange for at least 22 illegal construction permits.

They want to “clean’’ the region so that “Serbs could not stay in the south of Kosovo,” Vucic told reporters. “Should we expect someone to say something in Serbs’ defence? Don’t be naive and expect something like that.’’

This is not the first time Serbia has accused the Kosovo government of ethnic cleansing. Similar accusations are waged after every police operation that includes Kosovo Serbs as suspects. [Euractiv]

(gc)

Turkey: Authorities investigate 45 Twitter users for spreading disinformation about cooking oil supplies 

Turkish authorities have started an investigation into 45 Twitter accounts for spreading false information about the price of sunflower cooking oil in the country as Ankara tries to slow accelerating inflation across different economic sectors.   

The accounts allegedly published “provocative posts” and “spread disinformation” about cooking oil prices in Turkey that led to panic buying and hoarding, the country’s Security Directorate General said in a statement. The department of cybercrime was conducting the investigation through online surveillance of the accounts, the directorate said. [TurkishMinute][AlMonitor] 

Videos posted on social media showed people pushing each other in supermarkets to grab cans of sunflower oil out of fear that the price would increase or that the supply would run out. A five-litre can of sunflower oil sells for around USD 21 in Turkey, where minimum wage earners have a salary of USD 296 a month.[TurkishMinute][AlMonitor]

Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu warned that action will be taken against those “who provoke people to go to the supermarket out of fear that this or that product will no longer be available.”  [TurkishMinute][AlMonitor] 

Turks are suffering from rising inflation, which reached 54.4 percent in February, as workers struggle to keep up with the sky-rocketing cost of living. The plunge in the value of the Lira combined with soaring global energy prices and the Russian war in Ukraine has caused a spike in commodity prices in Turkey and globally. 

Sunflower oil was the third largest food import last year, with large quantities coming from Russia and Ukraine, according to the Federation of Turkish Food Associations. Wheat, which is also largely brought in from Russia and Ukraine, was the main import.[AlMonitor]

Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati sought to ease public concerns about the availability of sunflower oil, saying that Turkey has enough stock to last until July even if it does not import any more. Turkey's Vegetable Oil Manufacturers Association, though, warned that stocks could run out as early as next month. [TurkishMinute][AlMonitor]

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Turkey: Iran’s MuddyWater linked to cyber-attacks against Turkey, Arabian Peninsula countries

Iran’s MuddyWater was linked to phishing attacks against Turkey and Arabian Peninsula countries, according to Cisco Talos. 

Using different forms of malware, MuddyWater has attempted to conduct espionage, steal intellectual property and commit ransomware attacks against Turkey and countries in the Arabian Peninsula, according to Cisco Talos.  It attempted two campaigns against Turkey in November 2021 and targeted Armenia in June of the same year using the same types of Windows executable files.

MuddyWater primarily utilises malicious documents to deploy downloaders and RATs in a variety of languages, such as PowerShell, Visual Basic and JavaScript, to hack other countries, Cisco Talos said. One campaign targeting the Arabian Peninsula deployed a WSF-based RAT, what Cisco Talos called a “SloughRAT.”

MuddyWater is highly motivated and can use unauthorised access to conduct espionage, intellectual property theft and deploy ransomware and destructive malware in an enterprise. [CiscoTalos]

The U.S. Cyber Command has linked MuddyWater to  Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security. According to the Congressional Research Service, the MOIS “conducts domestic surveillance to identify regime opponents. It also spies on anti-regime activists abroad through its network of agents placed in Iran’s embassies."

U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force has identified and disclosed multiple open-source tools that Iranian intelligence actors are using in networks around the world. MuddyWater is an Iranian threat group that has primarily targeted Middle Eastern nations and European and North American nations. 

(lk/gc)

Team:

Aleksandra Bulatova (ab), Ann-Charlotte Neumann (acn), Antonia Lawrenz (al), Beatrice Paladini (bp), Christopher James Godwin (cjg), David Kiss (dk), Eric Kliszcz (ek), Ferdinand Witthuhn (fw), Giulia Taraborrelli (gt), Glen Carey (gc), Harry McNeil (hm), Harry Taunton (ht), Henning Glaser (hg), Ivandzhelin Bozadzhieva (ib), Jonas Borini (jb), Jonas Langlotz (jl), Josie Moises Sanchez Amaya (jm), Kevin Sarmiento (ks), Lavinia Abbott (la), Lena Krummeich (lk), Marlene Busch (mb), Maximilian Ohle (mo), Mustafa Hussain (mh), Natinunt Muenchorn, Nick Warren (nw), Peter Kononczuk (pk), Piet Rehmert (pr), Quentin Vidberg (qv), Saen Witthayaphatthanaphorn (sw), Sarah Donald (sdo), Tamari Akhaladze (ta), Valentina Polacchi (vp), Venus Phuangkom, Vincenzo Bardo (vb), Warren O'Broin (wo), Yara Pstrong (yp), Yury Malakhov (ym)

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