Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 43, October/2022, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers, 

Welcome to this week’s issue of the Asia in Review offering an overview of the latest events and developments in domestic politics, international relations and geopolitics in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to everyone who celebrates Independence Day in the Czech Republic, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Zambia in this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

China: Xi Jinping secures third term as party leader, filling leadership ranks with loyal supporters  

(ms) The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ended on October 22 and was officially concluded with the first meeting of the 20th Central Committee the following day.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was unanimously re-elected as General Secretary of the Central Committee (and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission) on October 23, thus embarking on an unprecedented third term as head of the CCP and becoming the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. This pave the way for Xi’s third term also as President, to be adopted at the People’s National Congress (NPC) next spring. At the 2018 2018, an amendment to the country’s constitution removed the two-term limit on the presidency which had been introduced under Deng Xiaoping to prevent absolute rule of a leader as had been experienced under Mao Zedong [see AiR 3/3/2018].

At the first meeting of the 20th Central Committee, the members of the Politburo of the CCP Central Committee and the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) were announced, revealing in particular that all members of the latter, the apex of power, are loyal proteges and allies of Xi, further cementing his power position. In addition, there was no clear successor was presented as no younger official is among the PSC members.

Besides Xi Jinping as the head of the highest decision-making body of the CCP, a major shakeout of the Politburo Standing Committee took place. Four members resigned, including Premier Li Keqiang (67), Wang Yang (67), Li Zhansu (72) and Han Zheng (68). Zhao Leji (65) and Wang Huning (67) retained their positions.  

The position of Premier, the second highest position within the CCP, has been taken over by Li Qiang (63) who will thus succeed Li Keqiang in March. Li Qiang’s appointment is the first premier since 1976 who does not have previously held the position of vice premier. Li Qiang was a member of the 19th Politburo and is still Party Secretary of Shanghai to date, a position in which he came under criticism, particularly earlier this year, for mismanaging a COVID-19 outbreak in the city. However, he is considered a protegee of Xi, having served as Xi's chief of staff between 2002 and 2007 when Xi was secretary of the Zhejiang region.  

The new members of the PSC also include: Cai Qi (66) serves as head of the General Secretariat, in charge of running the party’s day-to-day affairs. The Beijing party chief worked under Xi in the provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian. Ding Xuexiang (60), who in his capacity as head of the General Office since 2017 has been a core bureaucrat holding control over information and access to officials. Ding formerly served in party committee in Shanghai, where Xi was party boss from 2007 to 2008. In 2013 he became Xi’s personal secretary. Li Xi (66), party chief of Guangdong province, is widely seen as confidant of Xi, as he has served as secretary for a close ally of Xi’s father, revolutionary leader Xi Zhongxun. 

Zhao Leji, on of the two remaining PSC members, has held his position since 2017. He served as head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s anti-corruption body which made him a core figure in Xi’s campaign to discipline party members. The other one, Wang Huning, is the party’s political theorist who joined the PSC in 2017. He is often referred to as China's ideology tsar, has been responsible for the ideological architecture for three Chinese presidents, namely Jiang Zemin's “Three Represents,” Hu Jintao’s “Scientific Development Concept” and Xi’s “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era”. [CTV News] [Aljazeera] [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2] [The New York Times] [Taipei Times]. 

In an apparent show of force – drawing attention from all over the world as it was televised – Chinese former leader Hu Jintao and Xi’s predecessor, sitting next to Xi, was led out of the closing ceremony of the party Congress, with footage of the scene showing Hu initially resisting and exchanging words with Xi before being escorted away from the gathering. [BBC] [DW]

Furthermore, Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua, who at 59 was considered one of the rising officials within the party and expected to join the PSC, was not only not promoted to the PSC, but lost his position in the 24-member Politburo. The demotion of Hu, who is also called “little Hu” as an allusion to his being a protégé of Hu Jintao, signals that Xi has surrounded himself with loyal supporters in the party’s highest power echelons putting aside performance and focusing on loyalty in the selection. 

Hu Jintao and Hu Chunhua both belong to the so-called Tuanpai, or Youth League Faction, known as political faction within the CCP which includes cadres and government officials originating from the Communist Youth League. It is considered a rival faction to Xi’s Shanghai faction. [Nikkei Asia] [The Straits Times]

Further underscoring Xi’s dominant position and the concentration of power in his hands, the Congress decided to incorporated the "Two Establishes", and the "Two Safeguards" into the party’s constitution, that are aimed at enshrining him as at the core of the party and his political thought as its fundamental ideology. [Xinhua] [The Guardian]

Meanwhile, a major reshuffle also took place in the military leadership. General He Weidong (65), who has been serving as commander of the Eastern Theater Command, was promoted to the second-ranked vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, while 72-year-old General Zhang Youxia was promoted to first-ranked vice-chairman. He’s promotion, in particular, is a clear sign that Taiwan will be the focus of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the coming years. Zhang has a key figure in China’s military reform launched by Xi in 2015. He was in charge of the PLA’s armaments and equipment as well as space exploration programs. [South China Morning Post 3]

In an immediate reaction to Xi’s leadership reshuffle, China’s yuan dropped to around 7.3 per dollar on October 25, marking the lowest level in almost 15 years. A day earlier, huge sell-offs of Chinese stocks causing Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng (HSI) Index to close down 6.4 percent and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down over 14 percent. The reaction is indicative of fears that Xi’s tightening grip on power will lead to the continuation of existing policies widely seen as impeding the country’s economy and further market opening. [CNN]

The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index consists of companies whose common stock is publicly traded in the U.S. and the majority of whose business is conducted within China. 

China: Hong Kong sets out plans for recruiting foreign workforce

(ms) In his first policy address since taking office as Hong Kong chief executive in July, John Lee Ka-chiu on October 19 unveiled his plans for recruiting foreign labor, addressing housing shortages and the implementation of the local security law.

With 140,000 workers having left Hong Kong in the last two years, recruiting, and attracting workers from both the mainland and abroad played the main role in his speech. Lee announced the introduction of two high-level bodies, the Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises, and the Talents Service Unit to deal with attracting foreign talent as well as businesses. The government is expected to allocate a budget of about USD 4 billion for this measure. 

Under the "Top Talent Pass Scheme", all people who have an income of about USD 320,000 or more per year or a degree from one of the top 100 universities with three years of work experience in the last five years should qualify for a two-year visa. Work visas will be extendable to three years in the future, and further restrictions on bringing workers to 13 industries that are suffering acutely from a shortage of skilled workers in Hong Kong will also be lifted. Foreigners who have bought property to live in the city and have lived in Hong Kong for at least seven years will also be able to obtain permanent residency rights, in addition to a possible extra-stamp duty refund. 

With regard to attracting companies, Lee announced a revision of the listing rules for companies at the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing (HKEX), which should make it easier for both domestic companies and international ones to list, allowing Hong Kong to compete more effectively as an Asian financial hub.  

Regarding Hong Kong's housing shortage, Lee announced plans to build 30,000 apartments in the next five years and to increase housing construction in general by 50 percent, promising that by 2027 at the latest, the waiting time for public housing will be reduced from six to four and a half years.   

Regarding the enactment of Article 23 of the Hong Kong Basic Law, the city’s local security law article, he remained vague and spoke only of “preparatory work” without presenting a concrete timeframe. The Hong Kong Basic Law Article 23 states that the government shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies." However, it was still announced to strengthen laws to control crowdfunding activities and strengthen cybersecurity for critical infrastructure. [CNBC] [Hong Kong Free Press] [South China Morning Post]

China: Hong Kong adds CBD to list of illegal drugs 

(ms) The second most common active ingredient in cannabis, will be added to the Dangerous Drugs Ordinance and thus completely banned in Hong Kong. 

The reason for the ban is that, according to the government, despite its non-existent psychoactive effect, CBD is not separable from tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), which is already banned in Hong Kong. As a result of the criminalization, trafficking and manufacturing of CBD and infused products will face a life sentence and a fine of the equivalent of about USD 650,000, and possession and consumption will face a prison term of six years and a fine of about USD 125,000.

The ban and the associated penalty will take effect from February 1, 2023. [Hong Kong Free Press]

Japan: Kishida sends controversial offering to Yasukuni shrine

(sra) In a controversial act, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sent offerings to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on October 17 to mark the autumn festival. He did not attend, however, the leader’s choice to honor the shrine is a risky diplomatic move as it commemorates Japanese military war crimes and their actions in China and South Korea. [Al Jazeera]

The act of sending a ritual offering to the shrine is a common political statement to enhance nationalist voter support. As Kishida’s approval rate in the public eye continues to fall, the symbolism honoring the country’s past militarism is a way of appealing to his supporters in an effort to counter the impact of the political scandals created by the LDP’s ties to the controversial Unification Church after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe [see AiR No. 41, October/2022, 2]. 

The religious offering of a ‘masakaki’ ceremonial tree ornament has been criticized for the message it portrays in regard to victims of Japanese aggression during World War Two. Those who have visited the shrine in the past such as Abe in 2012 were met with criticism by Chinese and South Korean officials. It was seen as a lack of remorse towards the military history of the country, as the shrine holds honor to 2.5 million people who died during the acts of war, including convicted war criminals. [Associated Press]

On the same day, a group of 90 Japanese lawmakers visited the shrine. The group also attended during spring this year but did not offer prayers on the war anniversary during the summer war anniversary. Other ministers also visited including Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi. A vice leader of the group stated he believes the act of Kishida’s offering was a symbol of peace in hopes of never repeating the war again. [The Mainichi]

Japan: Kishida retracts previous Unification Church dissolution conditions, investigation details to be confirmed 

(sra) In an attempt to improve his public support, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has changed his approach to the requirements to request the dissolution of the Unification Church, stating a violation of civil law, as well as criminal law, will now provide sufficient reasoning for the court. The decision was addressed in a parliamentary session on October 19 following the feedback from court rulings and victims of the religious groups’ actions. 

Formally named the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, the church’s controversial dissolution is being considered a result of its role in manipulating its members to take part in providing exorbitant financial donations and making purchases of spiritual products. The Japanese public has also pushed for the group’s investigation after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was correlated to his connection to the church, exposing its affiliations to more than half the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) 379 lawmakers in an evolving scandal [see AiR No. 40, October/2022, 1]. [Al Jazeera]

The launch of the investigation is based on the right to question the Unification Church under the Religious Corporations Law and potentially strip the group of its status as a religious corporation, removing its tax benefits, however, it could legally still operate in the country. The opposition blasted Kishida who remains vigilant to not impact the freedoms of religion, as this choice changes little in dissolving the group as there are no precedents set for how the investigation is to proceed. Any final decisions to be made by the court will rely on finding enough legal evidence to incriminate its leaders.  [Japan Today][The Mainichi] 

Possible evidence could stem from the political endorsement used by the church in an exchange for LDP lawmakers to promote certain policies. It has been admitted that an affiliate group of the organization encouraged members such as LDP lower house member Hiroai Saito to sign a document to agree on implementing changes to the country’s Constitution regarding war-renouncing Article 9 and opposing the legalization of same-sex marriage. Despite this update, Kishida has continued to deny any impact of the Unification Church on the LDP’s policymaking. [Kyodo News]

In an effort to redeem itself, the LDP also announced it will facilitate a joint panel discussion together with opposition parties to find legislative measures to provide support to all victims of financial ruin from religious groups. The panel includes officials from the Consumer Affairs Agency, the education ministry, the Justice Ministry and the National Police Agency. Solutions will include implementing restrictions on donations and allowing the cancellation of purchases made via spiritual sales, to be submitted as part of a package of legislation to be submitted to parliament. Regardless of the implementation of these measures, it may still take some time to see the dissolution of the group. [The Japan Times]

Japan: President of ADK Holdings resigns over Olympic bribery scandal

(sra) The president of the third-largest ad agency in Japan ADK Holdings Inc, Shinichi Ueno, was arrested for his suspected role in the ongoing bribery scandal of the Tokyo Olympic committee. He later resigned from his position due to the allegations. Prosecutors also arrested two ex-employees of the company on October 19 on the premise that their cooperation with mascot-stuffed toy manufacturer, Sun Arrow Inc, saw them pay USD 362,000 to the Olympic committee. It is believed that the amount was received by former Tokyo 2020 Olympic board member Haruyuki Takahashi who already holds four arrests due to his involvement in the scandal. [Reuters]

The scandal is an ongoing development of corruption regarding the sponsorship of the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic games held last year. French prosecutors have revealed the allegations of bribery stem from the 2013 selection of Tokyo city by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) that forced the resignation of Japanese Olympic Committee head member Tsunekazu Takeda in 2019. The latest allegations in the country centered around Takahashi’s role in the acceptance of over USD 1.2 million in bribery from multiple companies have seen him under custody since August [see AiR No. 41, October/2022, 2].

The resignation of ADK Holdings Inc president was a result of his arrest for allegedly bribing Takahashi with help from the Sun Arrow company. [The Japan Times][The Mainichi]

Although the scandal continues to grow under investigation causing public division, Japan is still seeking to hold the 2030 Winter Olympics. A public referendum has been denied which may cause economic distress as the event is estimated to cost at least USD 2.6 billion, which will primarily consist of public government funding. [Associated Press]

Japan: Cabinet approves bill to rectify vote-value disparity 

(sra) The Japanese Cabinet approved a bill on October 21 to request a revision of the balance of a high vote-value disparity of above 2.0 evident in national elections in 2009, 2012 and 2014. The Supreme Court has deemed the issue as unconstitutional as it impacts the distribution and boundaries of the lower house single-seat districts. The amendment will revise the Public Offices Election Act of 2019, impacting 140 single-seat constituencies within 25 prefectures. The bill will be approved throughout the current extraordinary parliamentary session, coming to a close on December 10. 

The need for an amendment is a result of the national census of 2020 and was recommended in June to minimize the vote-value disparity in some cases as high as 2.096-fold to 1.999. The October 18 ruling by the Tokyo High Court stated that in the July elections for the House of Councillors there was a disparity reaching 3.03 times difference between the least to the most populated districts. The election went ahead without implementing any legislation in regard to the Supreme Court’s demands to reduce the vote-value difference and has seen lawsuits filed against the High Court. [The Mainichi 1]

As per the Constitution, all citizens of Japan are treated “equal under the law and there shall be no discrimination in political, economic or social relations.” Yet, this disparity in political participation between urban and rural districts is evidence of violating the Constitution, with a number of lawsuits already filed across the country. The bill seeks to repair the balance between prefectures to enhance representation equality. The amendment will thus redistribute seats between regional representation blocks to match the total number of votes received by each party. This will see each of the 10 least-populated prefectures lose a seat, giving up to five extra seats to the most-populated prefectures. These actions are to be set in place for the next lower house elections before October 2025. [The Mainichi 2] 

Japan: Ex-soldier receives apology from assailants over sexual harassment, speaks out in the face of defamation 

(sra) Former member of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF), Rina Gonoi has accepted apologies from the four servicemen that caused her to end her career in the military due to the sexual harassment she suffered. The men were found guilty under the investigation of the Defense Ministry for abusing their powers and higher rank to assault Gonoi. She has since spoken out about the existence of sexual and power harassment in the Self-Defense Force (SDF). 

The GSDF confirmed the results of the internal investigation on September 29, finding Gonoi’s allegations of physical and verbal sexual harassment from 2020-2021 to be true after her initial request to investigate her case was dropped without proper conduct. Gonoi resigned from her position in September 2021, sharing her story online, and creating a petition signed by more than 100,000 people to request her case be revisited by a third party. [see AiR No. 40, October/2022, 1]. 

The four men held responsible were Gonoi’s superiors in the army, have expressed their plans to resign from the GSDF. The rare admission of sexual harassment follows the dishonest responses the men initially used when met with suspicion during the first investigation in 2021, and the public apology by Army chief Yoshihide Yoshida, in September. [Associated Press][The Japan Times]

This case has been significant in its public reach, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addressing the issues within the Defense Ministry and SDF are to be inspected closely. Gonoi has also released information about her experience within the GSDF in the hope to mitigate the culture of sexual harassment and power harassment, as she explains her case was not an isolated incident. [The Mainichi]

Japan: Same-sex married couple appeal to High Court over visa rejection

(sra) An American man married to a Japanese man in the US has appealed to the High Court in Tokyo due to the Japanese immigration authority’s denial of his long-stay visa in Japan granted on September 30. Andrew High and his Japanese partner appealed to the Tokyo High Court on October 14, as the immigration bureau merely renewed a previous short-stay visa the day before - contradicting the proposal of the court ruling of his designated activity status residential visa. [The Mainichi]

The married couple is one of many same-sex couples that have been refused long-term residency in Japan. The pair filed a lawsuit against the Japanese government for violating Article 14 of the Constitution which ensures equality of treatment for all under national law. The result of the district court ruling only provided a temporary “designated activity” visa, adding to the multiple long-term residency rejections [see AiR No. 41, October/2022, 2]. 

Japan: LDP begins discussions to update national security strategy, increase defense spending 

(sra) The ruling Liberal Democratic Party initiated a debate over Japan’s long-term security and diplomacy policies on October 18. The LDP also stated it will continue to consider increasing corporate and household income taxes in order to fund the growing request of the Defense Ministry’s budget for fiscal 2023 at USD 37.67 billion. Boosting military spending will involve increasing national debt – which is already double the size of its economy – due to the weakening yen, leaving the government with restrictions on how it will apply its spending. 

The plan to increase Japan’s national spending on defense to two percent of national GDP for the first time since World War Two was initially organized by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to be discussed by an expert panel to stabilize the economy and strengthen the military’s defense sector. It asserts the tensions that impact Japan’s national security due to regional missile threats from North Korea and China’s contentious relations with Taiwan’s sovereignty, along with Russia’s war on Ukraine further exacerbating the government’s aims to revise their stance on Article 9 in the constitution. The panel is set to discuss the logistics of the budget for the Defence Ministry for fiscal 2023 [see AiR No. 35, August/2022, 5]. 

The National Security Strategy (NSS) meeting between the LDP and Komeito addressed concerns to focus on strengthening national security, with plans to revise the plan initially created in 2013. The meeting marks a shift toward doubling the Japanese defense budget in order to comply with other NATO member states to reach two percent of national GDP within the next five years. [The Mainichi 1]

The expert panels made up of members from the LDP and Komeito party will discuss annual tax-code revision and Kishida’s research and development program, as well as capital gains tax reform. The plan will be to redistribute funds from lower-priority government expenses to be put towards defense spending. [The Japan Times]

The tax hikes will significantly impact families and businesses who are already financially struggling as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in addition to high inflation in the country. The decision is expected to further increase the public’s disapproval of the Kishida administration which continues to plummet below 30 percent due to the recent scandals surrounding LDP members’ connections to the Unification Church and the legality of the state funeral. It is believed that a combination of increased income tax, adding to debt issuance and relocating government spending will be considered to go ahead with the defense budget strategy. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

With growing military threats in the region, Japan will need to boost its defense capabilities, as a recent estimate from the Defense Ministry on October 21 revealed an approximation of 60 percent of missile stockpiles classified as adequate to intercept enemy ballistic missiles. The ministry stated this current status may not suffice if the country were to come under attack, with Chinese missile ranges being capable of reaching national shores. The need to boost anti-ballistic missiles is a result of rising costs for the units, as they require two defense systems, made up of Standard Missile-3 interceptors and the lower-tier interceptors of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3. These adjustments will be considered in the defense buildup revisions of the NSS. [The Mainichi 2]

North Korea: Cabinet meeting stresses efforts to attain economic goals

(sm) On October 20, the North Korean Cabinet met to assess this year’s economic performance, stressing the need to modernize manufacturing processes. 

Vice Prime Minister Pak Jong-gun discussed ways to achieve plans for the third and fourth quarters based on leader Kim Jong-un’s five-year economic plan. Pak praised Pyongyang’s advances in science and technology, as well as major industrial sectors, and asked for more vigilance on meeting production targets. 

Plenary Cabinet meetings are held three to four times a year. Kim had admitted flaws in his five-year economic plan during the eighth party congress in January and presented a new plan focusing on self-reliance amid the pandemic and global sanctions. [Yonhap News Agency] 

South Korea: Large-scale political rallies in Seoul

(sm) Large-scale political rallies took place in the center of Seoul on October 22, with estimated 32,000 conservative and progressive activists taking to the streets over sensitive political issues. 

The progressive side held an anti-government rally, while the conservative side, including far-right activists of the former conservative Liberty Unification Party protested pro-North Korea sympathizers. Voices clashed over the recent arrest of the current opposition leader Lee Jae-myung on grounds of holding illegal political funds. The conservatives supported a formal arrest, while the liberals denounced the prosecution’s probe as a political machination of current South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. 

While causing severe traffic disruptions, no instances of violence were reported. [Yonhap News Agency] 

South Korea: Close aid to opposition leader arrested, Democratic Party headquarters raided

(sm) Kim Yong, a close aid to the opposition party’s leader Lee Jae-myung, was arrested over allegations of illegal political funds on October 22. On October 24, the prosecutors then raided his office at the main opposition Democratic Party’s (DP) headquarters, facing strong opposition by fellow party members. 

The raid took place after a first attempt failed last week due to strong backlash from party officials and lawmakers. The DP has denounced the case as an attempt by the ruling party to suppress opposition. Lee has called for independent counsels to look into the issue. 

Kim, who is the head of the DP-affiliated Institute for Democracy think tank, is under investigation with the Seoul Central Prosecutors Office for having allegedly received about USD 591,000 in bribes from Seongnam-based property developers between April and August 2021, violating South Korea’s political fund law. The money is believed to have been used to fund Lee’s party and presidential campaign, as Kim was responsible for fundraising at that time. 

The property developers in Seongnam are suspected of being involved in a corruption case in a housing development project launched in 2015 when Lee was the major of the city just south of Seoul. [Yonhap News Agency] 

South Korea: Former Defense Minister arrested over slain fisheries official

(sm) On October 22, former Defense Minister Suh Wook and former Coast Guard Commissioner General Kim Hong-hee were arrested for dereliction of duty, abuse of power, and forging official documents on the case of a slain fisheries official in 2020. 

In September 2020, a South Korean fisheries official was shot by North Korean authorities near the inter-Korean border in the Yellow Sea, following his disappearance a day earlier during a fishery inspection. While the former Moon Jae-in administration had first decided the official was shot while trying to defect, the Coast Guard and military later disputed this conclusion on grounds of lacking evidence. The former Moon administration has been accused of dissimulating facts to maintain a favorable relationship with Pyongyang. 

Suh and Kim have been arrested over their alleged connection to the case, the former is suspected of having deliberately erased intelligence reports containing evidence against the official’s defection. The latter is accused of reaching wrong conclusions based on fabricated evidence. Suh and Kim have denied allegations in connection with the case. 

The prosecution issued arrest warrants after considering the risk of defection and destruction of evidence before a trial. It plans to investigate about 20 more people, including Moon administration senior security officials such as Suh Hoon and Park Jie-won. [Yonhap News Agency] 

South Korea: Major communication company Kakao Corporation CEO resigns following massive server disruption

(sm) On October 19, Kakao Corporation’s top executive Whon Nam-koong stepped down after a fire caused a massive server disruption rendering South Korea’s major mobile messenger unavailable on October 15 and 16. 

After the CEO formally apologized, he commented that this resignation would not affect Kakao’s business plan led by co-CEO Hong Eun-tael, while he himself will work at Kakao’s emergency committee to prevent further crises from happening. 

The resignation comes amid suspicions of an attempted North Korean cyberattack on Kakao services. Several individuals working in relations with North Korea, as well as defectors, claimed to have received a fake email by the Kakao tech service team during the server disruption. Kakao services, such as KakaoTalk, Kakao Pay, and Kakao T (for transportation) have resumed complete operation since then. [Korea Herald] [Yonhap News Agency] [See also No. 42, October/2022, 3]

South Korea: First refugee status granted over sexual orientation-based persecution

(sm) On October 20, the Seoul High Court ruled a court case in favor of granting refugee status to a Malaysian national persecuted on the grounds of her sexual orientation. 

The Korea Immigration Service had first refused to grant a refugee status to the transgender person after her application in July 2017. After filing a lawsuit against the immigration services’ Seoul office, a lower court had ruled in favor of the institution. The lower court had used the argument that the person was employed as a transgender person in her country of origin to deny claims of persecution. The individual then successfully appealed the case to the High Court

The Malaysian, born biologically male before identifying as a woman from age 10, had been arrested and fined in Malaysia in 2014 under Shariah law. Malaysia’s Islamic law considers homosexuality to be a sin and legally penalizes it. The appellate court granted the refugee status based on the woman’s arrest and punishment records. [Yonhap News Agency] 

Taiwan: Election Commission defends excluding Covid-19 patients in quarantine from local election

(dql) Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) has clarified its decision to bar COVID-19 patients and their close contacts from participating in the local elections and the referendum on lowering the voting age to 18 on November 26, if they are in quarantine, as not violating the constitution, citing a 2011 ruling of the Constitutional Court on regulations pertaining to protecting public health against the spread of transmissible diseases. 

The clarification came in response to calls from lawmakers of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and New Power Party (NPP) for reconsidering the ban arguing some 300,000 citizens would be deprived of the constitutional right to vote.

According of official data, an average of nearly 34,000 Covid-19 cases per day has been recorded recently. [Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan: Reservist training trial to be extended

(dql) During a hearing in parliament, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has confirmed the continuation of the dual-track reservist training program, which has been launched in March, in 2023, with more reservists could be asked to participate in the intensive training regimen. 

Under the new trial program (in addition to the traditional training), reservists are required to undergo two weeks of intensive training twice within eight years after their initial training. The new training program is physically more demanding with more time spent on practicing and improving combat skills, including shooting. 

So far, only some 15,000 reservists have joined the new program, compared with 97,000 who are taking part in the old program. [Taipei Times]

Meanwhile, army troops carried out a live-fire exercise simulating the use of cannons and tanks to counter an invasion of Chinese forces and involving 105mm and 155mm howitzers and 81mm and 120 mm mortars, 50mm machine guns and M249 squad automatic weapons, as well as M60A3 battle tanks and CM21 armored vehicles. [Focus Taiwan]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Police arrest members of Islamic militant group, separatists

(az) Bangladesh’s elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) has arrested seven members of a newly-found Islamic militant group, Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, and three members of the separatist Kuki-Chin National Front (KNA) in the remote hill areas of Bandarban and Rangamati. Ammunition and communication tools were also seized from the groups.

It is reported that the Islamic militants were in a deal with the KNA forces, where the militants will pay USD 2950 per month to KNA, and in return, they would receive necessary training and shelter. [The Daily Star]

Bangladesh: 29 government organizations declared ‘Critical Information Infrastructure’ in DSA

(az/lm) Bangladesh’s government has designated 29 organizations as ‘Critical Information Infrastructure’ under a section of the contentious Digital Security Act 2018. Because all declared institutions, including the offices of the president and the prime minister, are related to the public interest, the Editor’s Council has called the decision as a fresh pressure on free journalism in Bangladesh. [New Age]

India: Main opposition Congress party elects first non-Gandhi party president in 24 years

(vv/lm) India’s main opposition National Congress party (INC) appointed veteran leader Mallikarjun Kharge as its new president on October 19, the first person from outside the influential Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to take up the mantle of the presidency in 24 years. Kharge, a loyalist in the inner circle of the Nehru-Gandhi family, defeated the rival candidate Shashi Tharoor by almost 7,000 votes in a poll of 9,000 party delegates. [Hindustan Times] [NDTV] [The Indian Express] 

It was the sixth time in the INC party's nearly 137-year-old history that an electoral contest decided who would become party president. Kharge will take over from Sonia Gandhi, the matriarch of the Gandhi family who has served as interim president since her son, Rahul Gandhi, stepped down from the post following the party's debacle in the 2019 general elections. Since then, the party has been in flux with Rahul appearing to continue as the de facto leader while senior officials have abandoned the party for lack of confidence in him [see latest AiR No. 36, September/2022, 1].

A member of the Dalit, the community of people belonging to the to the lowest stratum castes in India, Kharge has had a long political career spanning state and federal politics over the past five decades. He has held ministerial posts in the former INC government and is a former lawmaker. [The Strait Times 1]

His election has been met with mixed reactions. Some analysts say his candidacy was an attempt by the Gandhi family to make the INC appear less imperial and dynasty-dominated rather than to effect the changes Tharoor had campaigned for. Others, however, believe that Kharge could prove to be a new beginning, provided the Gandhi family let him get on with revitalizing the party and articulating a vision that can win the 2024 general election. [Deutsche Welle] [The Guardian]

The upcoming legislative elections in the states of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are among the first challenges that Kharge will face. In both states, the INC will take on not only Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party but also the Aam Admi Party, which is emerging as a serious player. [The Strait Times 2]

India: Central government approved release of 11 men jailed for gang rape, court documents show

(vv/lm) The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the August release of 11 Hindu men who had previously been jailed for life for the gang-rape of a Muslim woman and the murder of her relatives during anti-Muslim riots in 2002, according to court documents. [Al Jazeera] [Hindustan Times] [Saudi Gazette] [MSN] [Indian Express] 

The men were part of a mob on a rampage in Gujarat 20 years ago when Prime Minister Modi was the chief minister of the state. They were first convicted and sentenced to life-imprisonment in early 2008 but approached  the Supreme Court in April seeking remission for their sentence. The convicts were released from jail on August 15, when India celebrated 75 years since the end of British rule . The district jail advisory committee asserted later that its decision to free the 11 men was in line with a 1992 local policy on remitting prison sentences on grounds of age and good behavior. [AiR No. 34, August/2022, 4]

Against this backdrop, India’s Supreme Court later in August agreed to hear a Public Interest Litigation petition to reverse the state's remission order freeing the men. Paperwork submitted by the Gujarat state government regarding the remission granted to the men shows an approval letter signed by India’s home ministry. It also shows that the state government had decided to release the convicts despite objections from the Central Bureau of Investigation.

In light of this, the leader of India’s main opposition National Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, claimed through a series of tweets on October 18 that Prime Minister Modi himself sought the release of the 11 gang-rape convicts and opposes women empowerment.

The husband of the victim, in turn, claimed that the Gujarat state government is yet to respond to Right to Information (RTI) applications his family and a witness had filed to seek information relative to the remission. He added that despite repeated queries over the past two months – since the time of release – only communication received was to demand for a fee, which was subsequently paid by the family and yet no response was received.

India: Four members of banned Muslim group arrested in Mumbai

(vv) Four members from a recently banned Muslim group, the Popular Front of India (PFI), were arrested near the city of Mumbai and booked under anti-terrorism laws. [News Web India] [Transcontinental Times] 

The PFI and affiliated organizations were banned by the home ministry on September 28 for a period of five years, on charges of terrorism, radicalization, funding of terrorists, organizing hate crimes and killings, and supplying arms to terror outfits. Authorities also arrested dozens of members of the nine outlawed organizations after conducting raids across the country. [AiR No. 40, October/2022, 1] 

The PFI later launched a political wing, the Social Democratic Party of India, which was excluded from the ban.

India: Delhi Court refuses to cancel bail of Bihar deputy chief minister accused of corruption

(vv) A special court in the Indian capital New Delhi on October 18 refused to cancel the bail granted to the deputy chief minister of Bihar state, Tejaswi Yadav, who is accused of corruption by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). 

Yadav, senior leader of the regional Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party and, was granted bail by Delhi court in October 2018 relative to summons issued against him on alleged irregularities in granting operational contract of two Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) hotels to a private firm, popularly known as the IRCTC scam. While the CBI continued its probe in the case, ever since, officials of the crime investigation agency claimed in a recent press conference that Yadav tried to thwart the investigation and issued direct threats to CBI officers and their families, and indirect threats to witnesses. [Hindustan Times]

Yadav, and his attorney, denied all allegations of violations, and claimed that the CBI and Enforcement Directorate (ED) are being misused by the central government to target rival parties. [The Statesman] [Outlook]

India: President appoints Justice Chandrachu new Chief Justice of India

(vv) India’s President Droupadi Murmu on October 18 appointed the second senior judge of the Supreme Court (SC), Dr. Justice Dhananjaya Y Chandrachud, as the 50th Chief Justice of India (CJI). Justice Chandrachud will take oath on November 9, a day after incumbent CJI Justice Uday Umesh Lalit demits office on attaining the age of 65. [Mint] [News On Air] 

Justice Chandrachud has a legacy of landmark rulings, including the decriminalizing of Section 377 in September 2018, a colonial-era law which called for punishment of any individual involving in sexual activities “against the order of nature”. Another recent landmark ruling this September pertained to the legalization of abortion for minors and unmarried women between 20-24 weeks of pregnancy. [Deccan Herald] [First Post] 

India: Kashmiri journalist barred from traveling outside the country to receive Pulitzer Prize

(vv/lm) A Kashmiri photojournalist who was part of a team that won a Pulitzer Prize this May has been barred by Indian authorities from traveling to the United States to receive her award. Her colleagues who were traveling with her — who are not from the disputed Kashmir region — were allowed to board the flight. [The New York Times][CPJ]

Mattoo tweeted on the said incident, stating that her passport was stamped with “canceled without prejudice”, adding that this is a major setback to her career This is the second time Mattoo was barred from flying out, previously being stopped in July at the airport while traveling to France for a book launch and photography exhibition. [Al Jazeera] [The Guardian] 

This isn’t the first time Indian authorities have banned Kashmiri activists and journalists from flying, with several restrictions imposed on Kashmiri individuals following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which revoked the special autonomous status of Kashmir. [BBC] [CNBC]

India: Hindu group linked to ruling party BJP stirs Muslim tensions ahead of state elections

(vv) The general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sang (RSS), an Indian right-wing that in recent years has been at the forefront of promoting Hindu nationalism, has called for a national population policy, stoking religious tensions ahead of tensions ahead of state elections in Himachal Pradesh state and Prime Minister Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

RSS General Secretary Dattatreya Hosable claimed on October 19 that the population of the Hindu majority was declining due to frequent religious conversions and illegal migration, while providing no statistics to validate the said allegations. Hosable added that a uniform population policy will allegedly approach the matter holistically, while advocating for stricter laws in preventing alleged forced conversion through intimidation and allurement. [The Strait Times]

India: Military exercise concludes in Haryana state

(vv) A major military exercise was conducted by various units and formations of the Ambala-based II Corps of the Indian Army, also known as the Kharga Corps from October 2 to 18. The city of Ambala is known to host some of the largest Indian Army and Indian Air Force (IAF) units and cantonment areas, and the famous Kharga Corps are the strike two western oases unit of the Indian Army - having most influence in the forces making up for 50 percent offensive capabilities. Exercises were conducted to test the polymer track ways and heliborne capabilities in desert terrains, and joint training with the IAF. [Hindustan Times] [Press Trust of India] [Social News XYZ] 

India: 36 private internet satellites launched following delay by Ukraine war

(vv) India successfully launched a rocket carrying 36 private internet satellites on October 23 in its efforts to occupy the gaps in the global commercial satellite market after customers avoided engaging with Russian satellite companies. The satellites were launched from Sriharikota island and marked the first launch for London-based satellite company OneWeb since March when it was forced to suspend use of Russian Soyuz rockets. [South China Morning Post] [The Strait Times]

India: Five soldiers killed in chopper crash near China border

(vv) Five Indian army soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash near the country’s disputed border with China - the second such fatal incident in the same region this month. The Advanced Light Helicopter crashed down in a remote town near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that divides India’s northeastern state Arunachal Pradesh from Chinese territory. Earlier this month, an Indian army pilot was killed on a routine flight, further east around the same region of the LAC. [The Strait Times]

Nepal: Inflation surges to 74-month high ahead of general elections

(lm) Nepal’s annual inflation surged to a 74-month high in mid-September, rising to 8.64 percent, compared with 3.49 percent a year earlier. Further, the country’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell another 2 percent since mid-July to USD 9.35 billion - sufficient to cover imports for less than eight months. Both rates present a significant challenge for the country’s ruling five-party coalition ahead of a general election on November 22. [Reuters] [The Kathmandu Post]

Nepal: International election observers must respect country’s sovereignty, Election Commission says

(lm) Nepal’s Election Commission in a directive has made it mandatory for international poll observers to recognize and respect the South Asian nation’s customs, cultures and sovereignty while carrying out their roles. The directive will be applicable for international observers in the provincial and parliamentary elections scheduled for November 22. [The Himalayan Times]

Pakistan: Election Commission bars ex-Premier Khan from holding office for five years, sparking unrest

(msk/lm) Former Pakistani Imran Khan has been disqualified from holding political office for five years, the country’s Election Commission (ECP) ruled on October 21, citing false statements Khan had made regarding the declaration of the sale state gifts while in office – an offense that is illegal under the constitution. [Al Jazeera] [The Washington Post]

Protests erupted in major cities including Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar and Karachi after the verdict came out. PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry said this was the “beginning of a revolution” and called for supporters to “come out of their homes and take to the streets to uphold the constitution.” [CNN]

At a press conference right after the announcement by the ECP, leaders from Khan’s main opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-insaf (PTI) party, have said that they will take the matter to the Islamabad High Court (IHC), claiming that the ECP’s decision was “biased.” On October 24, then, the IHC observed that Khan would be allowed to contest an up-coming by-election in Kurram, noting that the ECP’s detailed judgment was not available yet. [Dawn]

The case represents just the latest in a number of charges against the former prime minister by the incumbent government in an attempt to prevent Khan from running again after his ouster earlier this year. After the removal of his government, Khan has been holding rallies across the country, demanding early polls. His narrative has won him large swaths of support, as the PTI won big in by-elections which took place in July and October.

Pakistan: Prominent journalist shot dead Kenya months after fleeing home

(lm) Arshad Sharif, a prominent Pakistani journalist who fled the country after he was charged with sedition, has died in Kenya after he was shot by police at a roadblock on October 23. Journalists in the Pakistani city of Karachi held a street protest over Sharif’s killing. [BBC] [Daily Mail]

Sharif was a critic of Pakistan's military as well as a vocal supporter of ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan. He had left Pakistan in August after complaining of harassment. At that time, he had interviewed opposition politician Shahbaz Gill, a close ally of Khan. Following the interview, Gill was also charged with sedition by the Pakistani police for making what they claim were “false, hateful and seditious” comments [see AiR No. 33, August/2022, 3]. He had previously been in the United Kingdom and Dubai before traveling to Kenya. [CNN]

Pakistan: Army chief to retire ‘within five weeks’

(msk) Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa announced on October 21 that he would not accept another extension to his service tenure which ends on November 29. In a reference to the political turmoil in the country, General Bajwa said that the army had decided to remain apolitical. In recent months, the army has continued to face allegations of political interference despite pledges by its leadership that it would stay out of politics. [Dawn] [Express Tribune]

General Bajwa will be retiring after commanding the army for six years. He was appointed in 2016 by the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. His tenure was extended for another three years in November 2019 after parliament legislated on the tenures of services chiefs on the orders of the Supreme Court under the then Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The new Pakistan Army chief would be selected by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and appointed by President Arif Alvi on the basis of the former’s recommendation. Lieutenant General Asim Munir, the current quartermaster general, will be the senior-most among the generals when General Bajwa retires. [Firstpost] 

Sri Lanka: Lawmakers vote to limit presidential powers 

(sn/lm) Sri Lankan lawmakers on October 21 overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment aimed at limiting presidential powers, beefing up anti-corruption safeguards and helping to find a way out of the severe economic crisis which forced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the Indian Ocean nation in July. In the 225-member house, 179 government and opposition members supported the motion and only one voted against it, ensuring the two-thirds majority required to pass the constitutional amendment. [ABC News] [Deutsche Welle]

The amendment transfers some of the president's powers, including the appointment of officials, to a constitutional council composed of lawmakers and respected non-politicians. Presidents will only be able to appoint roles such as senior judges, attorneys general, central bank governors, police, election commissioners and bribery and corruption investigators on the recommendation of the constitutional council. The prime minister, in turn, will be tasked with recommending Cabinet appointments, and the president will not be allowed to hold any ministry position except defense. [AiR No. 33, August/2022, 3]

The amendment also reinstates a number of democratic reforms made in 2015 in Sri Lanka and then overturned by now-ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded Rajapaksa on July 20, had promised to limit the powers of the presidency and strengthen Parliament in response to the protesters’ demands [see AiR No. 30, July/2022, 4].

Separately, protests were held in the city of Mahianganaya on October 19 to demand the release of two students detained under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, a contentious legislation that allows suspects to be detained for long period without judicial review. On the same day, another eight arrested student activists were released on bail. [NewsFirst 1] [NewFirst 2]

Sri Lanka: Draft ‘Rehabilitation’ bill inconsistent with constitution, Supreme Court observes

(sn) Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court has found that a draft law that would give the defense ministry broad powers to detain people in so-called “rehabilitation” centers is inconsistent with the constitution, and thus, may be enacted only by a two-thirds majority in the 225-member house. [Gov.Ik]

The Bureau of Rehabilitation Bill, submitted to parliament last month, would establish a new administrative structure for the compulsory detention of “drug dependant persons, ex-combatants, members of violent extremist groups and any other group of persons” in military-run centers. The proposed law, which human rights advocates have already challenged in the Supreme Court, does not describe the basis for being sent for “rehabilitation,” but other recent government policies, most notably a separate bill to amend Sri Lanka’s Poisons, Opium and Dangerous Drugs Ordinance, provide for the compulsory rehabilitation of alleged drug users. [Human Rights Watch]

Sri Lanka: Tamil prisoners who tried to assassinate president in 1999 pardoned, released

(lm) Three Tamil rebels imprisoned for trying to assasinate Sri Lanka’s former President Chandrika Kumaratunga in the lead-up to the 1999 presidential race were pardoned and released on October 24. The trio were serving a 30-year sentence for organizing the attack on an election rally in the capital Colombo that killed 28 and injured 80. The deadly suicide bombing was during the Indian Ocean nation’s civil war, which claimed over 1,000,000 lives between 1972 and 2009. [The Hindu]

Last week, President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s office said five other former rebels, who had fought for a separate state for Tamils in Sri Lanka’s north and east, would also be pardoned and released from long sentences under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), a contentious legislation that allows suspects to be detained for long period without judicial review. More than 75 Tamils arrested under the PTA are believed to still be imprisoned after serving decades without being formally charged. 

Sri Lanka: Domestic workers held captive in Middle East

(sn) A recent report highlights the lack of action taken by Sri Lankan authorities about female domestic workers being trafficked to the Middle East by employment agencies based in the Indian Ocean island nation. Such companies promised those women employment opportunities but held them captive as slave labor. [NewsFirst]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Opposition leader Sam Rainsy sentenced to life in prison

(dql) A Cambodian court sentenced Sam Rainsy, the self-exiled opposition leader of the now-disbanded Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) to life in prison after finding him guilty of attempting to cede four Cambodian provinces to a foreign state. The case refers to remarks of Rainsy nine years ago in which he vowed to uphold the rights of Cambodia’s indigenous people. 

The verdict adds to a long list of charges which have destroyed Rainsy’s political life in the country. [The Diplomat]

In the wake of the court’s ruling, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has announced that he would file complaints to dissolve any political parties that “want to associate with Sam Rainsy,” calling him a “traitor.” [Radio Free Asia] [UCA News]

Cambodia: Six detained over killing of opposition activist

(dql) Six people have been detained suspected of shooting dead Po Hin Lean, an activist from Cambodia’s opposition Candlelight Party.

The police claims that the killing had no political background, but resulted from a quarrel between the men and the activist during which one of them fired three shots. His wife, however, argues that the killing was politically motivated.

The Candlelight Party has become the main opposition party after the June commune elections. It consists mainly of former supporters and members of the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), which the Supreme Court order to be dissolved in 2017. [UCA News]

Cambodia: Loan terms to be eased for flood victims 

(dql) The Banking Association of Cambodia (ABC) and the Cambodia Microfinance Association (CMA), two of Cambodia’s apex bodies of the banking and microfinance industries, have reached an agreement on easing restrictions on loan repayments, reducing interest rates, as well as restructuring loans for customers deemed to be suffering from the recent heavy rains and floods.

According to preliminary findings of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, as of October 12, over 200,000ha of rice fields across the country have been significantly affected by the floods. [The Phnom Penh Post].

Cambodia: More than 260 foreigners arrested and deported

(dql) More than 260 Vietnamese, Chinese, Thais and Bangladeshi nationals living and working illegally in Cambodia have been arrested and deported after a two-day raid jointly conducted the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Labor. The concerted move of the two ministries was part of the government’s efforts to crack down on all forms of human trafficking and illegal gambling.

According to the Cambodian Immigration Department, close to 4,000 foreigners have been deported from January to September this year [Khmer Times].

Meanwhile, Taiwanese authorities have arrested three people involved in an organ harvesting ring that lured victims with false promises of jobs with high salaries in Cambodia, as well as mandatory health checks, including X-rays, which turned out to be a pretext use to remove the victims’ organs such as kidneys and liver. [UCA News]

Indonesia: Ganjar says ‘ready’ to run in presidential election, but PDIP chairwoman advises patience

(ai) The governor of Indonesia’s Central Jawa province, Ganjar Pranowo in a televised interview on October 19 said that he is “ready” to be named presidential candidate of the country’s ruling Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP). [South China Morning Post]

Indeed, Ganjar appears to be among the favorites in the polls to replace outgoing President Joko Widodo, whose term ends in 2024, along with Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan. However, his recent remarks seem to have been seen as a clear breakaway from the party’s tradition, prompting PDIP Chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputrit to remind her cadres not to act one step ahead of the command.

It is important to note that Megawati has prepared her own daughter, Puan Maharani, to run in the presidential election as part of her regeneration plan within the PDIP. In light of this, Gajar's statements, according to the executive director of Trias Politics Strategies, were read as an act of pressure against Megawati for a short-term decision by a candidate. [JakartaDaily] [Tempo.com] 

Indonesia: Murder trial of former police general puts spotlight on alleged police impunity

(lm) The trial of Ferdy Sambo, a former Indonesian police general accused of masterminding the murder of his bodyguard, started at a court in the capital Jarkata on October 17, in a case that has put a spotlight on alleged impunity and corruption in the country’s law enforcement. [Al Jazeera] [CNN] 

Police had initially said the bodyguard was killed in a shootout with another officer at Sambo’s Jakarta residence on July 8. But claims by the victim’s family that there were signs of torture on the bodyguard’s body led to a second autopsy, which saw the police version of events unravel.

In court, a prosecutor alleged Sambo had ordered one of his officers to shoot the bodyguard, before putting a final bullet in the back of his head and firing his gun into the wall to create the appearance of a shootout. Prosecutors said the motive was a belief the bodyguard had sexually assaulted Sambo’s wife.

Sambo, who was dishonourably discharged in August, has been charged with premeditated murder, an offense that can carry the death penalty, and obstruction of justice. Ahead of the trial, Indonesia’s police chief had said there had been attempts to destroy evidence in the case.

Indonesia: Calls to remove Nasdem party from ruling coalition intensify

(os) Calls to oust the NasDem Party from Indonesia’s ruling seven-party coalition have picked up after the party officially nominated Anies Baswedan as its presidential candidate for the election in 2024.

NasDem confirmed their backing of Anies earlier this month [see AiR No.40, October/2022, 1]. As a result, Anies ended his term as governor of Jakarta on October 16. Since his nomination, tensions within the coalition have been rising. This could be put down to the fact that NasDem has been in talks with two parties of the opposition, the Democratic Party and the Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Both parties expressed interest in supporting Anies.

Furthermore, NasDem member Zulfan Lindan claimed earlier this month that Anies had been chosen for nomination since he can be considered the “antithesis of [President] Jokowi”. The remarks triggered strong responses from coalition parties, including president Jokowi’s Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP). Coalition members criticized that positioning Anies as presidential candidate against the sitting president could be detrimental to the coalition.

Jokowi’s supporters also increasingly call for expelling NasDem from the coalition, claiming that it was insensitive of the party to announce its backing for Anies just days after the tragedy at a soccer stadium in Malang. Jokowi has not ruled out the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle later this year.

NasDem, on the other hand, highlighted their commitment to Jokowi. In this context, NasDem chairman Surya Paloh emphasized NasDem’s support of Jokowi’s decision to raise fuel prices despite being the only coalition partner to do so and in spite of ensuing mass protests. The party has also reprimanded Zulfan, the member describing Anies as the antithesis of Jokowi, for speaking on behalf of the party. [The Jakarta Post]

Malaysia: General election scheduled for November 19

(lm/gc) Malaysia’s Election Commission said on October 20 that national elections will be held on November 19 amid concerns that heavy rain and floods during the year-end monsoon season may deter voters. [Voice of America]

Parliament’s term was set to expire in July 2023, but caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob decided to dissolve Parliament on October 10, paving the way for snap polls [see AiR No. 41, October/2022, 2]. Ismail and his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) is feuding with allies in the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and seeks to capitalize on recent wins in local polls to improve on their four-seat majority in the 222-member house. [The Washington Post]

Since the dissolution of Parliament, only the BN-led states of Perak, Perlis and Pahang have dissolved their legislatures. This means that state polls for these three places will be held concurrently with the national elections. Meanwhile, six states controlled by the opposition and ally parties in Ismail’s government have said they would wait until next year.

The opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition – the largest coalition in parliament’s lower house – has named long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim as its prime minister candidate. Anwar will contest the Tambun parliamentary seat previously won by a minister in Ismail’s cabinet. [South China Morning Post 1]

This is the second time Anwar is helming the opposition election campaign, and the move may be one of his last chances to lead Malaysia. Anwar had been in line to take power from UMNO veteran-turned-critic  Mahathir Mohamad after the two joined together in the PH coalition to inflict the first-ever election defeat to UMNO in 2018. Yet two-time Prime Minister Mahathir repeatedly delayed handing over power, prompting defections – eventually leading to PH’s collapse in 2020 [see AiR No. 9, March/2020, 1].

Mahathir, who had announced earlier this month he will defend his parliamentary seat in Langkawi Island, said on October 21 he was prepared to meet with Anwar over the possibility of working together again in the coming election and repeating their 2018 success. [South China Morning Post 2]

Malaysia: More than 100 activists, institutions call on opposition PKR to allow female MPs to contest seats

(gc) More than 100 institutions and activists in a letter have called on Malaysia’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party of long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to permit all of its previous female lawmakers to run for re-election in the forthcoming general election. While applauding Anwar’s announcement that 30 percent of the PKR’s candidates will be women, the signatories said allowing the incumbent female party lawmakers to defend their seats would help ensure greater women representation in Malaysian politics. [FREE MALAYSIA TODAY]

Myanmar: Airstrike in northern Kachin State kills at least 80

(lm) At least 80 people attending a concert held by a rebel faction of the country’s minority Kachin ethnic group have been killed and another 100 injured in a devastating airstrike on October 23. [Al Jazeera]

The event was organized to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), a political group that has opposed the government for decades, and has become part of Myanmar’s armed pro-democracy movement after last year’s military coup. The celebration was held at a base also used for military training by the KIO’s armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). [The Guardian]

Myanmar’s military confirmed in a statement that there was an attack on what it described as the headquarters of the KIA's 9th Brigade, calling it a "necessary operation" in response to "terrorist" acts carried out by the Kachin group. International human rights watchdogs, as well as the United Nations and heads of diplomatic missions in Myanmar condemned the attack in separate statements. [ABC News] [Human Rights Watch]

Myanmar: Eight killed in suspected parcel bomb explosion at Insein prison

(lm) At least eight people have been killed in explosions at Myanmar’s main prison for political detainees after two parcel bombs went off at the entrance to the jail on October 19. An anti-government group known as the Special Task Agency of Burma later announced it had carried out the attack as “retaliation against (junta chief) Min Aung Hlaing” and the continued oppression of revolutionary fighters by prison personnel. [BBC] [Radio Free Asia] [The Guardian]

Myanmar: Army beheaded high school teacher, villagers say

(lm) The decapitated body of a high school teacher believed to have taken part in the Civil Disobedience Movement was left on grotesque display at a school in Myanmar’s central Magway region after he was detained and killed by the military, according to witnesses, marking the latest of many abuses alleged as the army tries to crush opposition to military rule. [ABC News]

A resistance group later announced it had used drones to launch two separate attacks on military forces in retaliation. [Myanmar Now]

Philippines: Supreme Court promulgates Rule on International Child Abduction Case

(jd) The Philippine Supreme Court (SC) has promulgated the Rule on International Child Abduction Cases which aims to facilitate the prompt return of children wrongfully brought to the country after being removed from their habitual residence. The SC has released the rule during its en banc session on October 19, and it represents the implementation of the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction (HCAC) of 1980, to which the Philippines has been a party since 2016. The rule applies when the child is under 16, has been brought to the country after leaving his/her habitual residence, and the HCAH is in force in the other country as well. [Rappler]

Singapore: Government introduces bill repealing ban on sex between men, preserves status quo on marriage

(lm) Singapore’s government on October 20 introduced two bills that seek to repeal the existing legal ban on sex between men while also protecting the current definition of marriage as between a man and a woman. [Bloomberg] [South China Morning Post]

The bills proposing the repeal of the colonial-era law known as Section 377A of Singapore’s penal code and the introduction of a new “Institution of Marriage” article in the constitution will be debated together on November 28 and put to a vote separately.

Over the years, activists mounted a series of unsuccessful lawsuits against the ban on sex between men, which carries a maximum jail term of two years but it is not currently actively enforced. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in August that the authorities will repeal 377A and decriminalize sex between men to “bring the law into line current social mores.” [AiR No. 34, August/2022, 4]

The constitutional amendment protecting the current definition of marriage is seen as a compromise, making clear that it is parliament’s prerogative to define marriage so that it can’t be challenged in courts. The amendment will also protect government policies based on the definition of marriage that include public housing rules or financial benefits for married couples.

Thailand: Ruling PPRP affirms support for Prayut as sole prime ministerial candidate

(fj) Countering dissenting voices from his own ranks, one of the deputy leaders of Thailand’s ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) has made assurances that the party continues to support Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its sole candidate in the upcoming general election. [Bangkok Post 1]

The pledge was made by Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn, Minister of Digital Economy and Society and PPRP deputy leader, in response to suggestions made by a party lawmaker who stated that the party’s leader, Prawit Wongsuwan, would be a better choice for the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the 2023 general election. The likely rationale for this statement is that the recent ruling of the Constitutional Court clearly entails that if reelected, Prayut would not be able to complete a full four-year term as Prime Minister as he would reach his cumulative eight-year term limit in 2025.

Chaiwut’s pledge of continued support for Prayut sits well with the most recent opinion poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) on the electoral preferences in Thailand’s southern provinces. Prayut tops the ranking for the post of Prime Minister with support from just under 24 percent of respondents. Paeatongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party, daughter of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, places second, gaining support from around 13 percent of respondents. Starkly contrasting with Prayut’s popularity was Prawit’s, who convinced less than 1.1 percent of the poll’s participants. This places him clearly behind Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the second biggest government party Bhumjaithai, who comes in at ninth position with 4 percent of respondents supporting him. [Bangkok Post 2]

Prayut’s personal appeal appears to only translate to some degree to the overall popularity of his party as the Nida poll sees the Democrat Party clearly leading in the South (27 percent), followed by Pheu Thai (15 percent) and the PPRP coming in third place (12 percent). Nevertheless, the poll suggests that in spite of his term limit approaching in 2025, the PPRP’s continued avowals of support for Prayut might well be credible. [Bangkok Post 2]

Thailand: Opposition Pheu Thai Party backtracks on plans to petition for dissolution of Bhumjaithai Party

(fj) Thailand’s main opposition Pheu Thai Party (PTP) has backtracked from plans to seek the dissolution of the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), a ruling coalition partner, over the latter’s flagship policy of cannabis decriminalization. According to party leader Cholnan Srikaew such a petition required further scrutiny and should also be voted on by the whole opposition. 

Initially, the PTP leader had declared outright the plan to file charges against the BJT with the Election Commission, claiming that the decriminalization of cannabis pushed for by the BJT and its leader, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, was designed to garner votes in the upcoming election. Now, citing the need to avoid the instrumentalization of legal means for pressuring political parties, PTP leader Cholnan cautioned against taking any quick action. He further stated that parties should only be dissolved if they subverted the constitutional democracy. [Bangkok Post 1] [The Nation Thailand]   

Anutin, who’s ministerial edict in June legalized the commercial growing of cannabis with an eye to tap into the economic benefits from the plant’s use in medicine and research, insisted that the party had followed due process in the decriminalization of the plant. He further stated that parties should not seek to destroy each other. 

It is worth noting that a potential petition with the Election Commission is only one of the ways in which the BJT is facing resistance over its cannabis policy. The Cannabis and Hemp Control Bill, which is expected to bring a legal framework for protecting the population from potential negative impacts from the liberalization of cannabis, has been stalled in parliament after the Democrat Party, a partner of the BJT in the ruling coalition, and the PTP criticized it for providing only inadequate regulation, particularly concerning the exposure of youth to cannabis products. In the meantime, the in-depth review of the bill by the House Scrutiny Committee has been concluded and the significantly expanded bill is expected to be put up in parliament for its second hearing in November. [Bangkok Post 2] [Thai PBS World]

Thailand: Thairaktham Party dissolved for enticing villagers to register membership

(td) Thailand’s Constitutional Court has voted to dissolve the Thairaktham Party, a micro political party, and disqualified a sole party-list lawmaker representing the party with immediate effect, arguing that it enticed people to join the ranks of the party in an unlawful manner. Likewise, the rest of the party’s executive members have been banned from politics. That verdict came as the Election Commission (EC) petitioned for deliberation. [Bangkokbiznews, in Thai] [Thai PBS World]

It had been reported that the Thairaktham Party had formed a veiled group to encourage dozens of villagers in the northern province of Pichit to make sandalwood flower tributes – used for a Buddhist funeral ceremony – in return for remuneration. To join the group, they were required to register for a membership free of charge. The locals might not have realized that their subscription had become a helping hand for the party to secure a total of 500 members, to establish its provincial branch office, to contest the general election in 2019. 

As a result, pursuant to the 2017 Political Parties Act, the Court finalized that the party be disbanded; Pherawit Ruangludollapak, as the party leader, and his associates would be ineligible to run for election for 10 years, and nor could they set up a new political party. The Court’s ruling was based on Section 92 Paragraph 1 (3), Section 30, and Section 94. From this time on, MP Pherawit’s seat in the House of Representatives has been left vacant.

Thailand: Justice Ministry to enforce bill to prevent repeat criminal offenses

(td) Thailand’s justice ministry is set to enforce a bill that will enable surveillance of former inmates, who committed a sex crime, violence, and extortion to prevent repeat criminal offenses. The so-called Justice Safety Observation Ad hoc Center (JSOC) bill has already received approval by Parliament and only needs to be announced in the Royal Government Gazette. [Bangkok Post] [National News Bureau of Thailand]

According to the Corrections Department, the average number of ex-convicts repeating their offenses stands at 34.6 percent between 2018-2021. In light of this, it is gravely concerning to many, particularly victims of each criminal case prosecuted up to date. 

Generally, the JSOC’s target group falls under three categories: Watch List 1, Watch List 2, and Watch List 3. The first group involves those released before the law comes into force after having served their sentence. They are required to put on an electronic monitoring (EM) bracelet for a maximum of 10 years – so are the latter groups. Whereas the Watch List 2 group targets those inmates granted an early release but still pose a threat to society after leaving prison, the JSOC also considers freshly convicted inmates to enter prison as the third target group. Overall, the Justice Ministry has exerted laborious efforts to tackle the pressing issue of repeat criminal offense.

Thailand: Chief advisor to prime minister resigns amidst cabinet reshuffle speculations

(fj) Thosaporn Sirisamphand, chief advisor to Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, has resigned from his position with the government. He also stepped down from his role as chairman of state-owned oil and gas company PTT Public Company Limited.

Thosaporn, who had previously served as the secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council, had been the Prime Minister’s chief advisor since 2020. His sudden resignation, combined with the Prayut’s unwillingness to provide further comments on the issue, has contributed to further speculations on an impending cabinet reshuffle.

While the Democrat Party has nominated one of its lawmakers to fill the currently vacant portfolio of the deputy interior minister, party leader Jurin Laksanawisit stated that his party was not hastening Prayut to reshuffle the cabinet. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Former Finance Minister Korn to head Chart Pattana Kla Party

(fj) Korn Chatikavanij, who served as Thailand’s finance minister under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva from 2008 to 2011, has been nominated as the head of the Chart Pattana Kla Party. His nomination comes only weeks after the previously separate Chart Pattana Party and the Kla Party have joined together, resulting in the renaming of the former to Chart Pattana Kla Party (CPKP). [Bangkok Post]

Previously head of the Kla Party, he thereby takes over from Tewan Liptapanlop, the previous head of Chart Pattana Party. Korn’s decision to abandon the Kla Party as a standalone political party, which he had founded only in 2020 upon leaving the Democrat Party, is best understood in light of the election method to be used in the 2023 election. The new method of allocating parliamentary seats through party list votes entails that smaller parties will find it much harder to have their representatives voted into parliament. Hence, there is a clear incentive for smaller parties to merge in an effort to stay afloat amidst the increasingly polarized competition between the bigger parties. [Thai PBS World 1]

Considering that in the previous election in 2019 the Chart Pattana Party gained only three seats in parliament, the success of the combined CPKP will likely depend on Korn’s ability to rally electoral support around his economic and financial expertise. [Thai PBS World 2]

Thailand: Ruling PPRP eyes former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn as party’s new economic mastermind

(lm) Thailand’s ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is reportedly considering inviting Pridiyathorn Devakula, a former Governor of the Bank of Thailand who served as minister of finance and deputy prime minister in two cabinets, to become the party’s new economic tsar. However, PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon said on October 21 that no formal talks between the party and Pridiyathorn had been conducted to this date. [The Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Deputy leader of Democrat Party denies defection rumors

(lm) Sathit Pitutecha, a deputy leader of the Democrat Party and deputy public health minister, has denied speculation he is defecting to the Bhumjaithai Party, also a partner in Thailand’s ruling alliance. [The Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Court hands down nine-years sentence over social media posts in royal defamation case 

(fj) The Narathiwat Provincial Court has sentenced a woman to nine years in prison over charges of royal defamation and violation of the Computer Crimes Act in relation to the sharing of and commenting on social media posts that were deemed to be in violation of the law. [Prachathai]

Of the six social media posts that were investigated, the court found three of them to constitute instances of royal defamation, punishable with three years of imprisonment each, reaching a total sentence of nine years in prison. The defendant has posted bail of around USD 5000 and will appeal the ruling. [Prachathai] [Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, in Thai]

The provincial court’s action against the woman followed complaints filed by a resident of Narathiwat, one of the southernmost provinces of Thailand bordering Malaysia. According to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, it is the fourth instance in which sentences of royal defamation have been handed down by this court, with none of the defendants living in the southern provinces. Also, it is reportedly at least the eighth such complaint submitted by the same individual. [Prachathai] [Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, in Thai]

Thailand: At least 20 army officers reportedly linked to housing loan graft

(fj) At least 20 military officers have been implicated in an alleged graft scheme within the loan system of Thailand’s defence ministry.

The graft scandal surfaced when two businesswomen lodged a complaint with the ministry after they had been accused by soldiers who obtained loans under the army’s welfare program to finance housing projects of taking a cut. The builders’ lawyer has since raised comprehensive charges against army officers for being the culprits in the malpractice and estimates the damages incurred through the graft to be around USD 800,000. [Bangkok Post 1]

The army has launched its own investigations into the issue, confirming that the charges in question were indeed illegal. In reporting its current findings on the graft case, the army is stressing that it centers around the wrongdoings of individuals and does not implicate the army or any of its units. Furthermore, the army has called on the builders’ lawyer to provide evidence concerning the claims that some of the involved officers had been promoted despite being involved in the illegal practices. [Bangkok Post 2]

Vietnam: Priest banned from leaving the country

(dql) A Catholic priest who support disabled veterans who served the South Vietnamese army during the Vietnam War, has been temporarily barred from leaving the country. The man was stopped by security authorities at the airport when he was about to board a flight to Manila, from where he planned to fly to the U.S. with another plane.

The priest runs a program that provides material assistance to the veterans on holidays, in addition to occasional checkups from volunteer doctors, nurses, and social workers. The funding comes from both inside and outside Vietnam.  

He is among six priests who have been banned from leaving Vietnam over the past few years. [Radio Free Asia]

UNDP effort to support Vietnam's ongoing battle against corruption

(fe) A fresh initiative was started by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to enhance Vietnam's adherence to the UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC). The UNDP's Anti-Corruption for Peaceful and Inclusive Societies (ACPIS) Global Programme and the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs of the US Department of State both fund the initiative.

The 27-month project is intended to strengthen the capacities of anti-corruption agencies in effective measurement and monitoring of SDG anticorruption targets, increase societal engagement in the anti-corruption fight, strengthen the legal framework and law enforcement in the implementation of UNCAC commitments and recommendations on preventive measures, and asset recovery, and improve capacity in good governance, transparency, and integrity in public life. [Vietnamnews.vn]

Legislators debate 2023 socio-economic development plan

(fe) On Saturday, the 15th National Assembly held its fourth session, during which groups discussed the socioeconomic performance in 2022 and the socioeconomic development plan for 2023, as well as the public investment plan, how the State budget was allocated, and the State budget estimates for 2022 and 2023.

In the first nine months of this year, GDP growth reached 8.83 percent, and for the entire year, it is predicted to expand by 8 percent. 

The government set 15 major socioeconomic goals for the coming year, including a 6.5 percent GDP growth, a 4.5 percent increase in the consumer price index, a 5 to 6 percent increase in labor productivity, an urban unemployment rate under 4 percent, and a 1-1.5 percent decline in the multidimensional poverty rate.

The Economic Committee of the National Assembly recommended that the government takes important steps to stabilize the macroeconomy, control inflation, strengthen the financial-banking system's resilience, and further open up the space for fiscal policy while maximizing the effectiveness of public investment. [vietnamnews.vn] [Nhandan.vn]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China again blocks joint India-US move in UN Security Council to blacklist Pakistan-based terrorists

(vv) China again blocked a joint proposal by India and the United States to designate two Pakistan-based terrorists under the Al Qaeda Sanctions regime of the United Nations Security Council (UN SC) - the fifth time in four months that Beijing has put the hold on the listing.

The latest proposal sought the designation of Talha Saeed, the son of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) founder Hafiz Saeed, and Shahid Mehmood, deputy chief of an LeT front named the Falah I Insaniyat Foundation. China placed a “technical hold” on the proposals, asking for more time to review the evidence in its entirety. The hold is a temporary stand-by on proposals initiated at the UN SC, which grants the said country a six-month consideration window, upon which a final decision must be communicated. [First Post] [The Hindu] 

China had previously placed technical holds on New Delhi’s proposal to sanction LeT commander Zaki Ur Rehman Lakhvi and Hizbul Mujahideen chief Syed Salahuddin. [Economic Times] [Free Press Journal]

Against this backdrop, New Delhi’s permanent mission at United nations diplomat Ashish Sharma, on October 18 called for all nations to unequivocally stand against terrorism. Prime Minister Modi’s government is also geared up to host a meeting of the UN SC’s Counter-Terrorism Committee on October 28 and 29, and is expected to hit out at China for repeatedly blocking moves to impose UN sanctions on terrorists. [Deccan Herald]

United Nations chief Guterres chides India over minority rights during visit

(vv) United Nations chief Antonio Guterres chided India over its minority rights record, during a recent three-day visit that also involved bilateral talks held with Prime Minister Modi in his home state Gujarat.

Since the forming of Prime Minister Modi’s government, critics and lawmakers in the country have frequently complained of persecution and hate speeches against religious minorities, especially towards its 200 million Muslim minority population. Many also particularly note the human rights violations across the union territory Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) since the abrogation of its special-autonomous status, and subsequent restrictions imposed in the region that are in effect partially to this day. Several critics and activists from J&K allege being targeted by central government authorities, and prominent voices of dissent being silenced. [The Strait Times]

The most recent criticism comes from UN chief Guterres, who delivering a speech in the country’s financial capital Mumbai said that India as an elected member of the Human Rights Council has responsibilities “shape global human rights”, adding that it’s pertinent to protect and promote the rights of all especially of the minorities. Guterres also called for an unequivocal condemnation of hate speeches in the country, while also extending support towards advancing gender equality and women’s rights. [Al Arabiya] [Telegraph]

In another news, UN chief Guterres also visited western state Gujarat, and was joined by Prime Minister Modi on discussions relative to Sustainable Development and Climate Change. Guterres hailed India for its global impacts, stating that the donations of medicines, equipment and vaccines during peak COVID-19, humanitarian assistance provided to Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, have made India a partner of choice for the UN. Guterres also praised Gujarat for commissioning its first village fully functioning on solar power in 2021, reaffirming India’s commitment to UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ukraine-Russia war were also among the discussions between Prime Minister Modi and Guterres, after the Indian embassy in Ukraine advised its citizens from traveling to the war zone, and current residing Indians to vacate at the earliest as the situation seemed to deteriorate. [The Indian Express] [Asian News International] [Euro News] [New Indian Express]

UN refugee agency urges stop on forced returns of Myanmar nationals

(jp/lm) The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has urged countries in the Asia Pacific to immediately cease the forced return of Myanmar nationals who have fled the military-ruled country, describing such refoulement as “placing countless lives at risk”. [UNHCR]

The appeal comes after it was reported that Malaysia had deported 150 nationals on October 6, including six former navy officers seeking asylum, and plans to send back more despite the risk of arrest they face at home. [Reuters]

Officially, Malaysia does not welcome refugees. It is not a signatory to the UN Convention and Protocol on Refugees. It also does not recognise the refugee status given to asylum seekers assessed by the UNHCR as being at risk if returned to their own country. At the same time, Malaysia is home to about 185,000 registered refugees and asylum seekers, including over 100,000 ethnic Rohinghya Muslims who fled repression in Myanmar and overcrowded camps in Bangladesh. [BBC] [Human Rights Watch]

In related developments, Bangladesh on October 20 said Myanmar has agreed to take back the Rohingya refugees under a bilateral agreement signed in November 2017. Notably, China will facilitate the repatriation process, according to Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, who addressed the media after a meeting with Beijing’s envoy to Dhaka. [Anadolu Agency]

ASEAN foreign ministers to hold emergency talks on Myanmar peace process on October 27

(lm) Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will again hold emergency talks on the peace process in Myanmar on October 27 to determine whether to shift their approach at a key regional summit in November. [Bloomberg] [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

The talks at the ASEAN Secretariat in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta will cover the implementation of a five-point ”consensus” agreed with Myanmar's military rulers last year at a crisis meeting of the bloc’s leaders two months after the military overthrew the elected National League for Democracy government.

The ten-nation ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has been leading peace efforts but some countries in the bloc have become increasingly exasperated by the lack of progress by the junta implementing the plan, most notably Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. In fact, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, who has advocated that ASEAN engage in talks with the opposition National Unity Government, said last month the bloc needed to decide by November whether the peace consensus was still relevant.

Global finance watchdog adds Myanmar to blacklist for terrorism financing, de-lists Pakistan

(fm/jp/tj) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international watchdog, has placed Myanmar on its blacklist alongside Iran and North Korea, citing strategic deficiencies in the Southeast Asian nation’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems. The FATF also removed Pakistan from its list of Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring – often externally referred to as the “grey list” – after four years. [Al Jazeera] 

Both decisions were announced by FATF President T Raja Kumar at the end of a two-day meeting in Paris, France, on October 21. [FATF]

Myanmar It had been on the blacklist for years until it was moved to the grey list in February 2016, and then further delisted in June 2016 – the year President Thein Sein's quasi-military government handed power to Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government – in acknowledgment of progress made on criminalizing terrorism financing. Besides Myanmar, only North Korea and Iran are currently designated as High-Risk Jurisdictions, and banks will impose additional due diligence requirements for transactions that involve the country. [Nikkei Asia]

The FATF decided in February 2018 to place Pakistan on the grey list and handed Islamabad a list of 27 action items, which was later increased to 34 points, that it needed to implement for exiting from this list. At the last FATF meeting in June, the global watchdog said Pakistan would be kept on the list until a visit to the country took place to determine the progress [see AiR No. 25, June/2022, 3]. Subsequently, a FATF technical team traveled to the South Asian nation in late August. [The Straits Times]

Pakistan seeks billions in fresh loans from international lenders after floods

(tj/lm) Pakistan will request international lenders to provide billions of dollars in new loans to rebuild the country, according to the Financial Times, after devastating floods uprooted more than 30 million people and pushed the South Asian nation’s cash-strapped economy even closer to insolvency. [Financial Times]

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the newspaper Islamabad was not trying to reschedule its external debt, worth about USD 130 billion, but would ask for additional funds - although he did not specify the exact amount his government was seeking. In recent weeks, Sharif’s administration only narrowly staved off a liquidity crisis by securing a USD 1.1 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund in August as well as pledges of financing from China, Saudi Arabia and other bilateral lenders.

In light of this, Islamabad has been making its case for emergency aid on the international stage, including at the United Nations General Assembly and the Central Asia-Russia summit held in Astana, Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to host a donors’ conference to boost Pakistan’s fundraising efforts. No date has been set for the conference but Sharif said he expected it to take place in Paris in November.

The United Nations is finalizing its own assessment of the amount Pakistan will need to rebuild after the floods.

In related developments, the Asian Development Bank on October 24 signed an agreement with Pakistan to provide USD 1.5 billion in loans for budgetary support and flood-related rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. [Dawn]

Thailand hosts APEC finance ministers; US, allies condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in statement

(td/lm) Thailand hosted the finance ministers of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on October 19-20 to discuss and explore ways to withstand economic headwinds next year, ahead of the forum’s summit next month. [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] [National News Bureau of Thailand]

The 21-member APEC comprises many major Pacific Rim economies, including Russia, China and the United States. During the closed-door sessions, improving the security of supply chains featured prominently in agenda, as well as the questions whether multinational corporations would be likely to shift their factories outside of China to help reduce risk of the kinds of disruptions seen in the past few years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. [Reuters] [The Washington Post]

Notably, the finance ministers concluded their meeting without issuing a joint statement due to o a rift among participating nations over their views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Previous APEC ministerial meetings, including the trade ministers meeting in May, have similarly ended without a joint statement due to differences over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Kyodo News]

Indonesia-Latin America and the Caribbean Business Forum 2022

(os) From October 17–18, Indonesia hosted the 4^th Indonesia-Latin America and the Caribbean Business Forum 2022 (INA-LAC 2022). The forum provided businesspeople and government officials in the trade and investment sectors with an environment to network and further economic cooperation between the two regions.

Under the theme Indonesia-Latin America and the Caribbean: Transforming into a New Era, more than 500 people participated in the forum. As a result of business pitching and business matching sessions, several business agreements between Indonesian and Latin American and Caribbean companies were signed. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

Russia pledges to supply nuclear fuel to kick-start Bangladesh's first atomic power plant

(az) Russia has assured Bangladesh it will supply the nuclear fuel required to kick-start the South Asian nation;s first atomic power plant in Rooppur by next year. [La Prensa Latina]

In December 2015, Bangladesh and Russia signed a USD 12.65 billion agreement to build the Rooppur Power Plant (R-NPP), with Moscow financing up to 90 percent of the project through credit. Earlier this month, Russia suggested Bangladesh repay the loans lent out for the construction of R-NPP in its own currency, ruble; Bangladesh’s finance ministry is currently assessing the proposal.

Suffering from a severe energy crisis, Bangladesh has decided to raise the contribution of nuclear power in its total energy production to 12 percent by 2041. The R-NPP is predicted to eventually provide 15 percent of the country’s electricity.

Cambodia rejects U.S. concerns over Chinese constructions at Ream Naval Base 

(dql) Cambodia has denounced U.S. allegations over Chinese military construction activity at the country’s Ream Naval Base as an attempt to pressure it to make a choice between the US and China, insisting that the modernization of the base with the support of China was a domestic affair that “does not affect regional and international stability and security.” 

The criticism came after an U.S. think tank claimed that its satellite images prove that “Chinese-funded construction continues to transform Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base at a rapid pace, with major land clearing, a new pier, and several new structures completed in the last three months.” [Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative] [Khmer Times]

Cambodian peacekeepers depart for Mali and Sudan

(dql) According to the Cambodian National Centre for Peacekeeping Forces (NPMEC), close to 250 Cambodian peacekeepers have left the country on October 24 to join the United Nations’ Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali and the UN Mission in South Sudan.

The two missions are the first peacekeeping missions in 16 years. So far, Cambodia has carried out 11 missions in nine countries (Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, the Central African Republic, Lebanon, Mali, Syria, Cyprus and Yemen) involving more than 8300 troops. Currently, troops are dispatched to South Sudan, Lebanon, the Central African Republic and Mali. [The Phnom Penh Post]

Cambodia, Timor Leste deepen cooperation

(dql) Cambodia and Timor-Leste concluded two agreements that seek to strengthen bilateral ties and cooperation, including one agreement on air services and one memorandum of understanding on rice trade between the two countries. 

The deals were signed during the visit of Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta to Cambodia. During his meeting with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, the two leaders pledged to continue to work together to 

promote bilateral relations and cooperation in trade and investment, agriculture and education. [Xinhua]

Cambodia, Vietnam vow to deepen military cooperation

(dql) During a meeting between Vietnamese Deputy Defense Minister Sen. Lieut. Gen Vu Minh Luong and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Gen. Tea Banh in Phnom Penh on October 19, the former expressed his wish to deepen bilateral exchange at all levels, personnel training and coordination between army corps, as well as to work together in the search and repatriation of the remains of Vietnamese volunteer soldiers who fought in Cambodia.

Tea Banh, meanwhile, requested both countries to deepen defense relationship, turning it into one of the most important pillars of the bilateral ties. [Khmer Times]

Cambodia, UAE kick off talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

(dql) Cambodia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have launched talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement through which both sides seek to increase bilateral non-oil trade to USD 1 billion in the next three to five years.

Trade between the two countries has seen an increase by 40 percent from January to August in this year with a volume of USD 279 million, compared with the same period last year. It is expected to surpass USD 350 million by the end of 2022. [The National News]

US Navy chief warns of Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024

(dql) U.S. Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations, has called on the country’s military to be prepared for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024. 

Gilday’s statement points to a more immediate window than last year’s remark of Admiral Philip Davidson, then-head of Indo-Pacific Command, on a possible invasion before 2027, and reflects an on ongoing debate within the U.S. military over the time of China’s attack on the island.

It comes days after U.S. Secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that China was “determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” after deciding that the status quo was “no longer acceptable”. [USNI] [The Guardian]

U.S. charges against Chinese spies  

(dql) U.S. federal prosecutors have charged tow Chinese nationals with paying US law enforcement official thousands of dollars to seek his assistance in obstructing a federal investigation into Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.

According to the charges, two men tried foster a relationship with a US law enforcement official – a double agent for the FBI – to obtain details of the investigation, including witnesses, evidence and potential criminal charges as well as to secret recording of trial strategy meetings.

Furthermore, eleven other Chinese citizens are facing charges in two other spying cases, with four of them charged with using a fake think tank to recruit current and former US officials to purchase technology and another seven with attempts to pressurize a naturalized US citizen to return to China as part of what US officials see as an effort to recover fugitives and silence dissidents and perceived opponents of the China’s government. [BBC]

Vatican extends deal with China on bishop appointments

(dql) The Vatican has confirmed the renewal of its secret agreement with the Chinese government on the appointment of Roman Catholic bishops in China, marking the second two-year extension on the 2018 deal under which both sides agree to work together in appointing bishops, while the final and decisive say lies with the pope.

Critics of the agreement have stressed that only six new bishops have been appointed since the deal concluded while also pointing to growing restrictions on religious freedoms in China for Christians and other minorities. 

Rome reassured that the deal would not pave the way for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing, which would require the Vatican to severe ties with Taiwan. Ties with China were severed in 1951 following the takeover of power the Chinese Communist Party in 1949. [South China Morning Post] [Reuters]

Norway insists more time needed to consider conclusion of FTA with China

(dql) The Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries has revealed that it would take the country more time to negotiate a free-trade agreement (FTA) with China and to “consider the issues at stake and how to safeguard our interests.”

The statement, made last week, comes as China is expecting the conclusion of the deal after 15 rounds of talks in 18 years and signals growing caution towards Beijing among European nations.  

China is Norway’s seventh largest trading partner and accounts for 5.8 percent of total trade in 2021. Exports to China stood at USD 9.3 billion in 2022, while Beijing exported goods to the Scandinavian country worth USD 4.4 billion. [South China Morning Post 1]

Meanwhile, leaders of smaller member states of the European Union (EU) have expressed reservation over German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s plan to lead a German business delegation on a trip to China, scheduled for November, urging him to pursue a joint EU approach and to avoid separate agreements that could damage the EU’s unity. [South China Morning Post 2]

Indonesia, United States defense ministers discuss defense coordination in Indo-Pacific region

(os) Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto met with his United States counterpart Lloyd J. Austin at the Pentagon on October 20 to discuss the current dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region and opportunities for closer bilateral cooperation. [Antara News] [The Jakarta Post] 

In light of the complex dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, the two officials highlighted the necessity of continued cooperation between Indonesia and the US and expressed their will to keep the region “free and open”. In order to reach this goal, Austin stated that the US is interested in continuing to help the Indonesian Military (TNI) with its modernization. Furthermore, Austin mentioned the need for increased interoperability between the militaries of both countries.

Currently, Indonesia is sending cadets to study at US Military Academies. In addition to that, the two militaries held a joint exercise this summer, which has been the largest of this kind thus far. Austin also lauded Indonesia’s leadership position in ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific region.

The talk between Prabowo and Austin seems to be part of a larger strategy of the US to increase cooperation with countries in the region, where China’s influence is growing. According to a previous statement of Prabowo, he believes Indonesia should act as a “bridge” between the two superpowers of China and the US.

Norway, United Kingdom to support Indonesia in achieving carbon net sink goal

(os) Indonesia and the United Kingdom have signed an agreement on bilateral cooperation to support climate change mitigation attempts, most notably Jakarta’s 2030 Forestry and Other Land Uses (FoLU) Net Sink project. 

The agreement between Indonesia and the UK was signed by Indonesian Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya and British Minister for Asia, Energy, Climate and Environment Zac Goldsmith on October 22. The MoU comprises three main goals. First, the UK wants to cooperate with Indonesia in achieving FoLU Net Sink 2030. The second goal deals with furthering Sustainable Forest Management Certification in Indonesia. Lastly, the agreement aims at establishing best practices to enhance the capacity of stakeholders. [Tempo] 

In separate developments, Norway will start delivering a first contribution of USD 56 million to FoLU Net Sink 2030 after signing a contribution agreement (CA) with Indonesia on October 19. Further contributions from Norway are slated to follow in case reductions in the following years can also be reported and verified. Norwegian Ambassador to Indonesia Rut Krüger Giverin lauded Indonesia’s policies to reduce deforestation and highlighted Norway’s willingness to support this work. [The Jakarta Post]

United States to support Indonesia in Papua development

(os) The US Agency for International Development (USAID) in conjunction with Indonesia’s Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) introduced a new initiative aimed at fostering development in Papua and West Papua.

The initiative is called Papua Collaborative Governance Indonesia Project (USAID Kolaborasi). Over a period of five years, the program comprises USD 10 million and will support the Master Plan for the Acceleration of Development for Papua (RIPPP) of the Indonesian government. Through this plan, Indonesia wants to build up cooperation with, among others, development partners and businesses. One of the main goals of USAID Kolaborasi is to collaborate with local governments to enhance the quality of public service delivery in the provinces of Papua and West Papua, which are among the poorest and least developed provinces of Indonesia. In particular, the initiative will help the local governments improve the allocation and execution of budget. [Tempo] [US Embassy]  

Carmakers Ford, Hyundai discussing EV investments with Indonesia, minister says

(lm) Indonesia is in discussions with multinational automobile manufacturers Ford and Hyunday to establish operations related to electric vehicles (EV) in the Southeast Asian country, according to Jakarta’s coordinating minister for economic affairs. The senior official also said his country was in talks with South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution over battery and EV investments. [Reuters]

Japan, Australia sign updated security cooperation agreement

(sm) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese met in Perth for the annual Australia-Japan Leaders’ Meeting on October 22 and agreed to strengthen their security ties amid China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia Pacific region. 

In their fourth meeting since Albanese took office last May, the two consented on joint military drills and the signature of an updated version of their 2007 security cooperation agreement, which will serve as a compass for their future military cooperation. Kishida expressed his satisfaction over the agreement, which would significantly help boost Japan’s defense capabilities in the next five years. 

The partnership includes provisions for supply chain security of key minerals, a framework for information sharing in research and development, and promotes investments and commercial agreements on joint critical mineral projects. The ministers furthermore supported a regional transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and investments into green technologies. 

The two countries have recently been strengthening their defense cooperation as they have agreed to work with the US towards a free and open Indo Pacific region. During a meeting in May, the ministers agreed on updating the previous agreement, which included cooperation on counterterrorism and the North Korean nuclear threat. Australia and Japan are also major trade partners in natural resources and food as Australia supplies Japan with gas, coal, iron ore, beef, and wheat. [Reuters] 

Japan intervenes in foreign exchange market amid low exchange rates 

(sm) On October 21, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market as the yen neared 152 against the dollar, the lowest in 32 years. This is the second time in one month the country engaged in a yen-buying dollar-selling intervention. 

The yen stood at JPY 144,50 after the intervention, as it had been driven down to 151,94 against the dollar. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) stated it would not confirm the possible intervention to avoid influencing investors selling the yen. The MOF is suspected to have intervened in several stages on late October 21. 

The Bank of Japan has been sticking with an ultra-lose monetary policy, issuing very low exchange rates in contrast with the global trend of tightening monetary policies. This has been increasing the gap between US and Japanese interest rates, as the US Federal Bank has repeatedly hiked interest rates to counter inflation. The dollar has gained about 35 yen since the beginning of the year. 

This intervention follows a first one on September 22, when the yen stood at 145,90, where the MOF similarly engaged in yen-buying dollar-selling measures to prevent the yen from falling further, buying a record of JPY 3,6 trillion (USD 24 billion). Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has repeatedly expressed Japan’s readiness to intervene, cautioning against excessive volatility. Despite its significant foreign reserves (USD 1, 33 trillion), it remains to be seen if Tokyo can reverse the yen’s downward trend. [see AiR No. 39, September/2022, 4]  [Reuters] 

While a weak yen has been positive for the economy in the past by boosting exports, its current depreciation could negatively impact the economy, as it inflates the prices of imported goods, such as food, raw materials, and energy. The country has recorded a record trade deficit of JPY 11,01 trillion (USD 73 billion) for the first three quarters of this year. [Kyodo News] 

Japan cybersecurity and evacuation drills amid suspicions of North Korea cryptocurrency theft

(sm) The Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA), a government agency responsible for overseeing Japan’s financial sector, kicked off a week-long cybersecurity drill on October 18. Meanwhile, Japan’s southwestern Kagoshima prefecture plans to hold island evacuation drills to prepare for potential future attacks. 

Around 160 public and private financial institutions, including banks and securities firms, joined the exercises aimed at improving response and recovery capacities to counter cyberattacks. Japan’s cyber security policy office director Saito Tsuyoshi commented that methods for large-scale cyberattacks on Japan were becoming more and more sophisticated. 

The drills were held following recent suspicions of customer data and crypto assets theft by North Korean authorities, among others. On October 20, the National Policy Agency disclosed the North Korean state-sponsored hacking group Lazarus had targeted domestic cryptocurrency operators, expecting attacks to continue. This is the first time that an organization affiliated with a country was publicly accused of cybercrime to deter further actions. 

Lazarus is estimated to have stolen around USD 400 million of crypto assets last year, according to US blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. Japanese businesses and government institutions counted as much as 12,200 cyberattacks in 2021, according to National Policy Agency data. [Kyodo News] [NHK World_1] 

China’s assertiveness in the East and South China seas has furthermore been worrying Japan’s remote island residents, as Kagoshima prefecture plans to hold its first evacuation drills transferring islanders to the main land next January. 

Kagoshima’s initiative comes after Japan’s Self-Defense Forces were sent to Okinawa prefecture’s islands to protect important military bases and evacuate residents in the event of a Chinese or North Korean threat [see AiR No. 38, September/2022, 3]. [NHK World_2] 

Japan issues new sanctions against North Korea

(sm) On October 18, Japan’s government decided to impose further sanctions on North Korea, following Pyongyang’s repeated missile launching since October 4, including one intermediate-range ballistic missile flying over Japan for the first time since 2017. 

Japan froze the assets of five organizations involved in North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs, including North Korea’s Ministry for Rocket Industry. Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno qualified North Korea’s recent assertive actions as unacceptable and provocative, and urged Pyongyang to take concrete actions to resolve current tensions. 

South Korea supported Japan’s most recent sanctions, as Seoul had similarly imposed new unilateral sanctions on North Korea on October 14, blacklisting 15 companies with ties to nuclear and missile development, as well as 15 North Korean citizens. 

Japan’s relationship with North Korea has been distant due to the recent missile launches and the unresolved issue of the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 80s. North Korean is suspected to hold its seventh nuclear test soon, after its last one in September 2017. [Kyodo News] 

Mongolia, Finland hold cooperation talks

(dql) On October 17, Mongolia and Finland held meetings in the frame of the 14th session of the Joint Commission on economic, scientific, and technological cooperation between the two countries in Ulaanbaatar.

Both sides discussed ways to deepen bilateral relations and revitalize economic cooperation in the post-pandemic period, with a focus on trade, investment, environment, forestry, renewable energy, information technology, education, culture, and mining. [Montsame]

Philippine to buy US military helicopters after scrapping deal with Russia 

(jd/lm) Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has backed a decision by his predecessor to cancel a USD 215 million deal to buy 16 Russian military heavy-lift helicopters and said his administration has “secured an alternative supply from the United States.” [Associated Press]

The deal to buy the Mi-17 helicopters was signed by former President Rodrigo Duterte in November 2021, but canceled over fears of possible Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. The Department of National Defense in Manila said it formally notified the Russian aircraft manufacturer in June and last month of the Philippine decision to cancel the contract. Thus, the current administration will seek to have a percentage of the deal down payment returned by Moscow and a contract termination review committee has been established for this purpose.

The Russian ambassador to the Philippines, on the other hand, said on October 19 that the Philippine government has not officially notified Russia of its decision to cancel the deal and a Russian company was proceeding to manufacture the helicopters after Manila made an initial payment. [Al Jazeera]

Philippines, South Korea sign memorandum of understanding on key mineral supply 

(sm) In a meeting between South Korea’s Deputy Trade Minister Jeong Dae-jin and the Philippian Trade Undersecretary Ceferino S. Rodolfo on October 18 in Seoul, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on their cooperation on raw material and mineral supply chains. 

Jeong and Rodolfo promised to establish working-level talks on supply chain security and to work closely together on nuclear and sustainable power generation. They also pressed for the official signing of the bilateral FTA agreed upon in 2021 to ease cooperation, according to the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy. 

The Philippines have been seeking to develop nuclear energy to achieve energy self-sufficiency. The two countries had recently discussed the revival of a nuclear power plant construction project in Bataan that had been put on hold after the Chernobyl disaster in the 1980s. 

South Korea has been looking for new natural resource suppliers, as the country is trying to become more independent from Chinese natural resources. The South Korean and Australian Trade Ministers met earlier this month to strengthen their cooperation on minerals and gas supplies. The Philippines is interesting for South Korea as it is rich in minerals, such as nickel and chrome. [Korea Times] [See also No. 42, October/2022, 3]

South Korea to supply Poland with multiple rocket launchers 

(sm) South Korea’s Hanwha Defense company is set to supply 288 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers from 2023 after signing a contract with Warsaw’s Armament Agency on October 19. 

The deal, worth USD 6 billion, follows the purchase of 1000 South Korean K2 battle tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers and 48 FA-50 fighter jets by the Polish government earlier this year. The Chunmoo system is an artillery system used by South Korea to counter Pyongyang’s long-range artillery and has a range of 80 km. [see AiR No. 38, September/2022, 3] [Yonhap News Agency] 

Poland has become a major market for the South Korea’s weapon industry, as Warsaw is seeking to strengthen its defense amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Poland is also the third largest donor in military aid to Ukraine, having sent around USD 1,7 million worth of rocket launchers, tanks, and self-propelled guns, among others. 

While Polish National Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak was set to met with his South Korean counterpart Lee Jong-sup in Seoul on October 18, the trip was cancelled as China failed to give the Polish government jet permission to fly through its airspace. The ministers held a videoconference on October 19 instead. 

The rejection of airspace entry is suspected to be linked with Seoul’s recent strengthening relations with NATO, Poland’s support of Ukraine, and deepening economic partnership with Taiwan. South Korea established its official mission to NATO in June, triggering China’s displeasure. [Korea Times] 

North Korea fires artillery shots into maritime buffer zones, mutual provocations with South Korea continue

(sm) In protest of South Korea’s annual Hoguk military drills with the US army from October 17 to 28, North Korea fired about 350 artillery shots off its east and West coast into the maritime buffer zones with South Korea on late October 18 and 19. 

The North has been calling for the immediate cessation of joint drills between Seoul and Washington, which it considers to be provocative and escalatory. The shots fired on October 19 were a retaliation to ten South Korean shells fired from multiple rocket launcher systems into the frontline area earlier during the day. Pyongyang has launched eight missiles in the last three weeks, fired artillery shots and flown planes near military demarcation lines with South Korea to protest the US–South Korea military alliance. [Korea Times_1]  [Kyodo News] [Yonhap News Agency_1] [See also No. 42, October/2022, 3]

South Korea has been condemning recent North Korean artillery firings as violations of UN Security Council resolutions and the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement, which endeavors to reduce military tensions in the peninsula by establishing maritime buffer zones. As Pyongyang’s shots on October 14, 18, and 19 have been landing in these zones around the inter-Korean border, on October 20 the South Korean unification ministry urged North Korea to respect the agreement. North Korea had already fired shots into these zones in 2019 and 2020. [Yonhap News Agency_2] [Yonhap News Agency_3] 

South Korea is also considering to co-sponsor a UN resolution criticizing North Korea’s human rights record after refraining from doing so for years. The first UNHCR resolution condemning human rights abuses in North Korea dates back to 2003. [Yonhap News Agency_4] 

In the meanwhile, Seoul is on a 24-hour-standby to deal with a prospective seventh North Korean nuclear test, according to President Yoon Suk-yeol. The ground-based Green Pine radar, a key missile defense radar system in Busan with a range around 800 km, has been reported to go into full operation by officials on October 19. On October 20, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup gave the order to use ultra-precision missile systems as an immediate response to potential North Korean threats. [Korea Times_2] [Korea Times_3][Yonhap News Agency_5] 

Looking towards the future, South Korea’s army also announced its plans to purchase an advanced missile interception system to tackle the evolution in Pyongyang’s weapons technology on October 21. The low altitude missile defense II (LAMB-II), a system devised to shoot down newer missiles such as the KN-23 and KN-24, should be developed by 2029. The Korean Tactical Surface-To-Surface Missile-II (KTSSM-II), which would be an improvement to the current preemptive strike platform to counter nuclear threats, should furthermore be developed by 2030. [Yonhap News Agency_6]

South Korea, Vietnam to strengthen their strategic partnership

(sm) South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and his Vietnamese counterpart Bui Thanh Son met on October 18 in Hanoi on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of their diplomatic ties. 

Pointing out South Korea and Vietnam’s increase in defense and security exchanges, the ministers agreed to elevate the current relationship to a comprehensive strategic relationship, implying the expansion of cooperation into areas such as maritime security. 

Son promised Park support in finding solutions for the business problems South Korean companies face in Vietnam, while Park asked for Vietnam’s vote on South Korea’s bid to host the 2030 World Expo and cooperation on the achievement of peace in the Korean Peninsula.

This was Park’s first official trip to Vietnam since taking office in May. [Korea Times] [Yonhap News Agency] 

South Korea’s concerns with the Inflation Rate Act remain unresolved amid talks with the US, EU

(sm) While the US reiterated its full commitment to finding a solution to South Korea’s rising concerns over the US Inflation Reduction Act on October 20, no concrete actions have been taken yet as the two countries continue negotiations. 

The IRA, a law passed last August which promises tax advantages to Electric Vehicle makers who assemble their cars in the US, has been considered discriminatory by the South Korean business world, especially by companies such as Kia and Hyundai. At the 34th US–South Korea Business Council on October 20, US ambassador Philip Goldberg stressed Washington’s commitment to its economic partnership with Seoul and encouraged the currently held working-level consultations over the issue. South Korean Foreign and Trade Ministers Park Jin and Ahn Duk-geun also attended the meeting. On October 19, Ahn also met with British and Swedish ambassadors Colin Crooks and Daniel Wolven as well as an EU representative Christophe Bess to discuss the issue. [Korea Times] 

Discussions have been revolving around a potential lag time granted to Korean EV makers, as Hyundai’s EV plant in Georgia is to start operations in the next three to five years. Business lobbies of both countries, present on October 20, pressed the governments to find a solution in a joint statement. They called for the removal of tariffs on South Korean steel imports to the US, implemented by the previous Trump administration, highlighted the importance of supply chain security in the semiconductor and EV battery sectors, and proposed the signature of a permanent currency swap to stabilize Seoul’s foreign exchange market. [Yonhap News Agency] 

The IRA not only gives tax advantages to EV makers, but also affects South Korean battery makers as the law requires them to be made with a certain percentage of minerals supplied by the US or its FTA partners which will increase over the years. South Korea has recently been looking for new supply chain partners in minerals and natural resources, such as Australia, the Philippines, and Oman, to reduce its reliance on the Chinese natural resource supply chain. [See also No. 42, October/2022, 3]

South Korea, Oman seek cooperation on energy and supply chains

(sm) On October 20, South Korea Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun and the Khalifa bin ali Al Harthy, undersecretary of the Omani foreign ministry, met in Seoul to discuss the strengthening of their energy and supply chain cooperation. 

While agreeing on the need to bolster the security of their natural gas supply chain, Ahn and Al Harthy also considered an expansion of their cooperation into renewable energy and green hydrogen. Ahn expressed South Korea’s willingness to continue to contribute to Oman’s development through ongoing projects including South Korean companies and the establishment of a joint economic committee to discuss future cooperation. 

Natural gas constitutes around 80 percent of the two countries’ trade, as Oman ranked as the fourth largest liquified natural gas (LNG) supplier to South Korea in 2021 (9,6 percent of Seoul’s LNG imports and 44,2 percent of Omani LNG exports). Bilateral trade increased this year due to the ongoing Ukraine–Russia war. [Yonhap News Agency] 

Taiwan plans joint arms production with U.S.

(dql) The U.S. is reported planning to engage in joint arms production with Taiwan. According to plans, U.S. defence companies are to provide technology to produce weapons in Taiwan, or Taiwan-made parts are used to manufacture them in the U.S. 

Coproducing weapons aims at expediting arms transfers which generally takes between several to ten years from the time of U.S. government approval of an arms sale until the completion of delivery. [Nikkei Asia]

German parliamentary delegation, King Mswati III of Eswatini visit to Taiwan

(dql) A German delegation consisting of six members of the parliamentary Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid reaffirmed support for Taiwan in the face of increased threats from China, with Peter Heidt, the delegation’s head of the ruling coalition Free Democratic Party (FDP), insisting that a change of the status quo of the Taiwan Strait must be peaceful and based on mutual consent, and pledging that Germany would continue to deepen relations and cooperation in the field of science and to uphold “close contact at the political level.” 

The statement was made during the group’s four-visit to Taiwan that started on October 23. It is the second visit of a German delegation in this month. [ABC News] [DW]

Meanwhile, in a joint statement, issued after the visit of King Mswati III of Eswatini to Taiwan, both countries reaffirmed the commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation in various economic development fields, while Eswatini reiterated its firm support for Taiwan to participate in international forums. [Focus Taiwan]

Eswatini is the only country in Africa having diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

26 October 2022 @ 4:30-5:45 p.m. (GMT+2), Bruegel, Belgium

War in Ukraine: Financing the victory

This webinar discusses the potentials of European financial support for Ukraine in the short term amid the ongoing war. 

To learn more about the event, go to [Bruegel].

27 October 2022 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT-5), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

A Conversation with Chris Inglis and Anne Neuberger

This event features a talk with the U.S. National Cyber Director and the Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology on the government efforts to boost U.S. cybersecurity.

For more information, see [CSIS].

27 October 2022 @ 2:00-3:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Analyzing the 2022 National Defense Strategy

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) invites to this call-in press briefing following the release of the U.S. Department of Defense's 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS).

Visit [CSIS] for more details.

27 October 2022 @ 10:00-10:30 a.am. (GMT-5), The Heritage Foundation, USA

Can Africa Be Part of the Solution to America’s Critical Minerals Supply Chain Problems?

This online discussion focuses on U.S. engagement with Africa and the question how to ameliorate significant economic and national security challenges in the wake of the U.S.’ reliance on critical minerals.

Find more about the event at [The Heritage Foundation].

27-28 October 2022, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

The Road to Nusantara: Process, Challenges, and Opportunities 

This two-day hybrid conference explores the complex process of realizing the project of the relocation of Indonesia’s capital Jakarta to Penajam Paser, East Kalimantan. It discusses the challenges and opportunities that could arise with the project and also shed light on potential impact on the broader region. 

If you are interested in joining, register at [ISEAS].

31 October 2022 @ 10:00-10:45 a.m. (GMT-4), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA

Nukes, Protests, and Iran 

In this online talk, Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, will provide a briefing on the Iran policy of the Biden administration.

See [Carnegie] for more details.

1 November 2022 @ 9:00 a.m. – 4:15 p.m. (GMT+8) ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

37th ASEAN Roundtable: 55 Years On: Is ASEAN Still Relevant in the Changing Global Order?

At this online roundtable, H.E. Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore’s Foreign Minister, and other experts examine key events impacting the ASEAN in the region, including the Russia – Ukraine war and the growing global bipolarity, the intensification of China-US rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. They also explore different dimensions of relevance and resilience to help ASEAN steer its way forward amid increasing uncertainty across the globe. 

More information is provided at [ISEAS].

1 November 2022 @ 6:30-8:00 p.m. (GMT-8), Asia Society, USA

ChinaFile Presents: Nury Turkel, No Escape

This online book discussion features the new book “No Escape – The True Story of China’s Genocide of the Uyghurs” of Nury Turkel is a lawyer and Uyghur rights advocate

For more information, visit [Asia Society].

1 November 2022 @ 2:00-3:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Chatham House, UK

Turkey’s foreign and domestic policy: A story of mutual creation?

This webinar discusses the relationship between Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies under the presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. 

Follow [Chatham House] to get more information.

2 November 2022 @ 10:00-11:45 a.m. (GMT-4), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA

Re-Examining the Origin Myths of the Modern Middle East

This online discussion explores how Middle Easterners – following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1922 – actually had greater agency in their own state formation, especially during a decade of anti-colonial insurgencies and rebellions.

See [Carnegie] for more event details.

Recent book releases

Peer Schouten, Roadblock Politics: The Origins of Violence in Central Africa, Cambridge University Press, 256 pages, published on January 20, 2022, review in [LSE]. 

Adriana Petryna, Horizon Work: At the Edges of Knowledge in an Age of Runaway Climate Change, Princeton University Press, 232 pages, published on March 1. 2022. For a review see [LSE]. 

Jayita Sarkar, Ploughshares and Swords: India’s Nuclear Program in the Global Cold War, Cornell University Press, 300 pages, published on July 15, 2022. See [Kirkus Review].

Katherine Corcoran, In the Mouth of the Wolf: A Murder, a Cover-Up, and the True Cost of Silencing the Press, Bloomsbury Publishing, 336 pages, published on October 18, 2022. Visit [The New York Times] for a review.

Calls for Papers

The Institute of Advanced Study of the Global South at Northwestern-Qatar University invites paper proposals for its online workshop on “Affect, Comparison, and Power” to be held on March 18, 2023. The deadline for submission of proposals is December 2, 2022. For more information, see [CFP]. 

Chaminade University of Honolulu invites paper proposals for its “People, Planet and Prosperity for a Sustainable Future Conference 2023” scheduled for June 11-13, 2023. The closing date for submissions is January 15, 2023. Details are available at [Chaminade University].

Jobs and positions

The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) is seeking a Senior Investigator based in Denmark. Core responsibility is to lead and supervise the team of investigators assigned for each case and coordinate the investigative activities of team members. Applications are accepted until 9 November 2022. More information about the position is provided at [UN].

The United Nations Office for Project Services is seeking an ICT Associate (Website Design and Development Consultant). Core responsibility is to maintain and improve the Content Manage System of the GoJUST website. Applications are accepted until 23 October 2022. More information about the position is provided at [UN].

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is seeking a Human Resources Assistant based in France. Core responsibility is to review and process requests for entitlements and claims from staff members in accordance with staff rules and established HR procedures. Applications are accepted until 7 Nov 2022. More information about the position is provided at [UNESCO]

United Nations Environment Programme is seeking a Senior Programme Management Officer based in Kenya. Core responsibility is to coordinate the formulation of the biennial programs of work and budgets. Applications are accepted until 23 November 2022. More information about the position is provided at [UNEP].

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is seeking a National HR Specialist based in Lebanon. Core responsibility is to demonstrates full compliance of HR activities with FAO rules and regulations. Applications are accepted until 31 October 2022. More information about the position is provided at [FAO].

The World Bank is seeking a Data Solutions Architect - Information Technology based in Bulgaria. Core responsibility is to act as Product Owner for Data Platform Products and Services. Applications are accepted until 27 October 2022. More information about the position is provided at [WB].

Team:

Aniello Iannone (ai), Duc Quang Ly (dql), Farhan Maqsood (fm), Francis Ezeh John (fe), Gabriela Lopez (gl), Henning Glaser (hg), Jennifer Marie Domenici (jd), Felix Jonas Jantz (fj), Lucas Meier (lm), Mashal Shahid Khan (msk), Natalie Svinina (ns), Ole Stark (os), Peer Morten Strantzen (ms), Sheikh Afif Bin Zaman (az), Silke Marian (sm), Sol Renteria Adorno (sra), Theerapon Damrongruk (td), Tomwit Jarnson (tj), Varshinya Varadhachari (vv), Venus Phuangkom

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