Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 43, October/2021, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you this week’s update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Austria and the Czech Republic which celebrate National Day and Independence Day respectively in this week.  

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

China: Factional feuds within CCP

(dql) Recent reports on “illegal and improper” actions against China’s top leadership planned by personnel of the country’s political-legal apparatus, which consists of the police, secret police, the procuratorates and the courts, have drawn attention to the question how powerful and unassailable President Xi Jinping’s position really is. 

Speculations over such a planned plot, believed to be against Xi, from within the party and the system have been reinforced by the recent sacking of two top-ranking security officers: first, Fu Zhenghua earlier this month, who served as Deputy Minister of Public Security and as Justice Minister, in charge of the country’s police, secret police, prosecution and court system, putting him at the pinnacle of the country’s political-legal apparatus. The former investigator is now under investigation for “serious violations of party discipline and law.” Second, Sun Lijun, a former Chinese vice-minister of police, was expelled in September from the CCP and will face trial over the same charges. He had been under investigation since lats year.

The sacking of Fu und Sun is seen by observers as reflecting factional feuds within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership. Fu and Sun both had been director and deputy director of the so-called 610 Office respectively, a Chinese Communist Party-based security organization in charge of enforcing ideological compliance, established on June 10, 1999, by then Secretary General Jiang Zemin. Thus, they belong to the so-called “Shanghai Gang,” an informal group of elite officials in the CCP Central Committee or the Central Government of China, who rose to prominence in connection to the Shanghai municipal administration under Jiang who at the age of 95 remains an important force behind the scenes in Chinese politics. 

Xi Jinping’s and his “gang’s” rise has come at the cost of influence of the Jiang (and the Hu) faction, and observers see clear signs of a power struggle between Xi and Zeng Qinghong, former Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice President and a princeling and close aide of Jiang Zemin. Zeng is believed to be the “protection umbrella” behind a number of multi-billion enterprises, with Fantasia Holdings being one of those which is headed by his niece Zeng Baobao. Rating agencies recently downgraded Fantasia Holdings to “default” status after the company failed pay interests on bonds and promissory notes. Weighing more, Zeng is associated Lai Xiaomin, a veteran banker who used to be chief of state-owned China Huarong Asset Management Company (CHAMC). Following his arrest last year over suspicion of accepting bribes and “disloyal to the party,” Lai executed this January. Exclusive reports published on the semi-official websites NetEase and Sohu.com say that Lai is the financier behind the foiled plot mentioned above. 

Against this backdrop, Xi’s purges of protégés of rivals from police and security and judiciary since assuming power, the crackdown on companies and his “common prosperity” campaign point to efforts taken to consolidate his power against criticism and attacks ahead of the National Party Congress in October next year where he still has to secure the affirmation of a demi-selectorate, as, although the term limit for presidency has been scrapped, it appears not guaranteed that Xi will be able to hold power for a third term. The fact that Xi has not left China for more than 650 is widely seen as suggesting that Xi fears leaving Beijing. [The Sydney Morning Herald] [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 1] [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 2]

China: Evergrande fights to stay afloat amidst significant setbacks

(tj) The indebted property developer Evergrande has suffered fresh defeat after a failed negotiation of a deal to sell a 50.1% stake, worth $2.6 billion, to smaller rival Hopson Development Holdings in  property services that could have eased some immediate pressure on the firm.

Both companies halted trading for more than two weeks to discuss the acquisition, yet both have now resumed trading after a resolution could not be reached between the two, resulting in Evergrande shares falling 14%, whilst Hopson rose 5.6 percent. [BBC 1]

Both Hopson and Evergrande appeared to blame each other for the failed agreement, with Hopson expressing it was currently in the process of exploring its options of protecting its interests.

The unsuccessful agreement represents the second failed negotiation of Evergrande’s attempts to raise cash to offset more than a $300 billion debt, last week failing to secure the sale of its Hong Kong headquarters for an amount of $1.7bn amid buyer concern regarding Evergrande’s current financial situation. [Al Jazeera 1] 

Likewise, Evergrande’s financial crisis has engendered inherent investor distrust of Chinese property developers’ accounts, with Moodys finding 27 of 70 Chinese property developers had ‘significant’ exposure to joint ventures, compared to just 5 of 49 during similar studies conducted in 2015.

Furthermore, commentators have noted that there remains a lack of certainty as to the real size of Evergrande’s debt, JPMorgan analysts estimating that Evergrande’s net gearing, a measure of a company’s financial leverage, was not the reported 100%, but actually at least 177% at the end of June this year. [Reuters 1] 

However, in a stroke of beneficence for the firm, Evergrande secured a three-month bond extension on Jumbo Fortune Enterprises bond in the amount of $260 million, offering rare reprieve to the indebted property developer, and Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan even agreeing to add personal cash collateral to the fund to secure the extension. [Reuters 2] [Reuters 3]

Since the start of this year, fhe firm’s shares have fallen by almost 80%. The company’s total liabilities are equal to around 2% of China’s gross domestic product, whereby the Evergrande Group chairman and founder, Hui Ka Yan, has expressed that Evergrande could not provide a guarantee that the group will be able to meet its financial obligations. [BBC 2] 

However, Evergrande has managed to pay a $83.5 million bond repayment, initially due September 23, wiring the funds on Friday. Had this deadline been missed, it would have triggered a formal default. Although the payment was made, commentators express that this is a short-term fix that is unlikely to allay investor concerns as there remains another deadline on a second offshore bond payment worth $47.5 million next week. [ABC News 1] [BBC 3][Reuters 4]

Currently, investors are eying Evergrande’s next crucial debt default deadline looms regarding, a $60 million interest payment that was missed on September 29. [ABC News 2] [The Guardian 1] [The Guardian 2]

Despite the long list of looming deadlines, on Sunday, Evergrande announced it resumed work on more than ten projects after the indebted property firm appear to avoid default with a bond coupon payment, perhaps incongruous to their announcement on Friday that future priority would be given to its electric vehicles business over real estate. [Reuters 5] 

For background on Evergrande’s financial crisis, see [AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1] and [AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3]

China: Beijing steps up efforts in tackling widespread energy crisis and coal shortage

(tj) China coal prices have since hit their worst week in five months, despite Beijing’s most robust intervention in years to boost supply and avoid the energy crisis spreading further. 

Amidst China’s growing power crisis that has spanned across 17 provinces, Beijing’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (‘NDRC’), announced on Tuesday, October 19, it was currently undertaking studies methods of intervening to engender a lower price of coal.

Similarly, two days later, the NDRC announced it had engaged its regional branches to conduct a specialised survey regarding coal output, distribution costs, and coal prices, whilst further confirming that coal mines would operate at full capacity with the goal of raising the output of coal to at least 12 million tonnes per day. Likewise, the NDRC confirmed that under Chinese law, the rate of profit and set price can be limited in instances where the price for important goods or services sharply rises, and vowed to take action against any market irregularities and maintain market stability. 

On the same day, China's thermal coal futures contract with Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell by 14% regarding its delivery in January. 

Likewise, on Friday, President Xi Jinping announced that China would take steps towards ensuing the stable supply of coal and electricity, further calling for more exploration and development of oil and gas. On the same day, NDRC held meetings with metal and oil state-run companies ensuring the ‘rational’ energy consumption by industry, further stating that industry should be taking the lead in promoting energy-saving and reducing carbon-heavy practices. [Reuters 1]

As a result of the impact of the energy crisis, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics announced that China is currently experiencing a growth slowdown last week. [See, AiR No. 42, October 2021, 3]

Echoing comments made by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang last week, commentators have similarly expressed concern over the speed of China’s energy transition, further noting that continued speed could engender social unrest triggered by the closure of factories ahead of next month’s plenum, a forum used to discuss improving governance and refining China’s socialist system, and next year’s Party Congress. [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2] [BBC] [Reuters] [See, AiR No. 42, October 2021, 3]

Li’s comments were perhaps solidified on Sunday, China’s cabinet outlining its plans how China will reach carbon neutrality before 2060, however emphasising that food and energy security must be valid considerations amidst the process of decarbonisation. [Reuters 2] 

Despite Beijing’s pledges of decarbonisation, Beijing’s coal crunch ultimately presenting China with a transition dilemma that perhaps engenders discussions of a revisionist strategy on Beijing’s previous promises of long-term emission reduction that similarly impact China’s position at the upcoming COP26 in Glasgow on 31 October. [See, AiR No. 42, October 2021, 3]

China’s energy crunch only reflects a broader tightening power crunch internationally as the northern hemisphere heads into winter that typically engenders higher energy consumption practices. [AP News]

China: Research unearths Xinjiang authorities’ mass surveillance and repression of the Uyghur identity 

(tj) Research conducted by an Australian think tank, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (‘ASPI’) has unearthed Xinjiang’s authorities’ expansive use of surveillance methods in policing Uyghur neighbourhood’s movements in what has been described as an ‘architecture of repression’.Extended to pervasive CCTV, ‘live-in’ authorities with Uyghur families, and engaging means of human surveillance via the means of engaging grassroots groups to control and police the Uyghur population. Likewise, ASPI unearthed that Xinjiang authorities are further utilising predictive policing via the Chinese Integrated Joint Operations Platform on Muslims in Xinjiang to gather ‘micro clues’ about Uyghurs. Such clues have been noted to neighbourly engagements to predict whether an individual was likely to receive an overseas phone call, thus prompting investigation by authorities.

ASPI provided evidence that pointed to the five key sets of Xinjiang’s repressive policies including to mass internment, forced labour, pervasive at-home surveillance, even coercive birth control and sterilisation. 

According to ASPI, Chinese authorities engaged to reshape how people in Xinjiang ‘act and speak’, profiling 170 offices involved in implementing the Chinese Communist Party's policies throughout Xinjiang.

Since the publication of the report, on Thursday, October 21, 43 nations signed a statement at the United Nation and called on Beijing to allow independent observers immediate and unfettered access to Xinjiang, citing the ‘widespread and systematic human rights violations’ and instances of documented torture, forced sterilisation, sexual and gender-based violence, and forced separation of children. 

The United Nations’ human rights chief, Michelle Bachelet, has been negotiating access to Xinjiang since September 2018, this statement representing the third statement made at the United Nations by liberal democracies criticising the treatment of those living in Xinjiang by Chinese authorities, despite this year amassing the highest number of signatory nation states, perhaps reflecting the impact of ASPI’s report.  

However, this was met by to 62 nation states claiming “disinformation” and “political motivation”  and that Xinjiang is China’s internal affair.

In response, China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun shot back with a fiery response, condemning “the groundless accusations” and “lies” as hypocrisy, alleging that the discourse of human rights violations had been weaponised as a ‘pretext for political manoeuvring to provoke confrontation’ in a ‘desperate attempt’ to deter from their own ‘terrible’ human rights records. Furthermore, Jun robustly defended Beijing’s development of Xinjiang, claiming that Beijing had improved the lives of those living in Xinjiang. [ABC News] [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2] [Reuters] [The Guardian] 

ASPI’s report can be accessed here.

China: Beijing paternalistic policies acquire new focus on shaping Chinese youths

(tj) Under a draft of the Family Education Promotion law the Chinese parliament has considered   implementing legislation to punish parents if their young children exhibit “very bad behaviour” or commit crimes. 

The Parliament envisages such legislation to operation by reprimanding legal guardians of children by ordering them to attend family education guidance programs should prosecutors rule that their child has behaved ‘very badly’ or exhibited criminal behaviour.  

This perhaps forms part of the broader narrative of Beijing’s sudden paternalistic grasp over Chinese youth that has recently extended to examples of the education ministry 

Reinforcing Beijing’s incremental paternalism demonstrated in limiting gaming hours for minors and the crackdown of the idolisation of celebrities, Beijing recently passed an education law geared towards reducing homework pressure on Chinese students and off-site tutoring in core subjects. [ABC News] [See, AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2] 

The new law, which is due to come into effect on January 1, 2022, requires local governments for the implementation of the policy, remaining responsible for ensuring the ‘twin pressures’ are reduced and providing for funding for “enriching extra-curricular activities”. Likewise, the new law asks parents of students to strike a balance between studying and leisure time and to ensure student are spared stress of overwork. [BBC] [Reuters] [The Guardian]

This new law comes amid Beijing’s focus on purported wellbeing, perhaps representing an echo of the Chinese Supreme Court’s ‘996’ ruling, in which the court found overwork culture illegal. [See, AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1]

China: Ongoing repression of Hong Kong pro-democracy supporters

(tj) Hong Kong has again suffered fresh blows to pro-democracy supporters. 

Filed in September 2019 by the Hong Kong Journalists Association (‘HKJA’) regarding Hong Kong police causing bodily harm, 26 of the 27 complaints filed were rejected by reasons purported to be that the HKJA did not provide extra information and that police have deemed activity during the 2019 protests to be categorised as ‘not pursuable’. [Hong Kong Free Press 1]

Likewise, Hong Kong police have told marathon runners to cover up ‘political’ clothing and tattoos before being able to compete at the first major sporting event in almost two years. [The Guardian] 

Furthermore, a Hong Kong man was jailed for seven years after attempting to grab a police shotgun during 2019 pro-democracy protests, whilst another was jailed for 4 years for insulting the Chinese flag and arson offences. [Hong Kong Free Press 2] 

Additionally, Amnesty International has announced it will close its Hong Kong offices, citing escalating pressure from the Beijing-imposed National Security Law, stating it would be ‘impossible’ to operate without significant ‘government reprisals’.  [Hong Kong Free Press 3] Civil societies have been consistently disbanding by the week in Hong Kong due to Beijing’s 2019 legislation that has operated to supress any pro-democracy sentiment or activities . [See AiR No.49, October 2021, 1; AiR No. 39, September 2021, 4]

Lastly, the Hong Kong government has disqualified 16 more Hong Kong democratically elected district councillors over loyalty oaths, without explanation, leaving the democrats in the minority with only 60 (16%) of the pro-democracy district councillors elected in 2019. Since September, oaths taken by 49 district councillors have been ruled invalid, although no explanation has been provided. [Hong Kong Free Press 4] [See, AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1]

Similarly, on Sunday, banks in Hong Kong were advised by the Hong Kong Association of Banks (‘HKBA’) to disclose property of clients who were arrested or charged for an offence under Hong Kong’s National Security law. More concernedly, the HKBA advised that banks should disclose property of said clients should banks have knowledge or a mere suspicion that a property is an “offence related property” after receiving information from law enforcement agencies. [Reuters]

Despite these developments, there has been no updates pertaining to the removal of the statue commemorating the victims of the Tiananmen demonstrations, in spite of the deadline of 5pm on 13 October having since passed. [See, AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3; AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]

China: Most sanctioned official promoted to Tibetan Community Party chief 

(tj) Wang Jungzheng, the head of security in Xinjiang who is accused of having overseen multiple human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities, has been appointed as the party secretary in Tibet. 

Commonly referred to as the ‘butcher of Xinjiang’, Jungzheng’s role in the atrocities in Xinjiang culminated in the official being listed on multiple Western sanctions list, including the US, Britain, the EU, and Canada in March this year. 

Since the announcement, Jungzheng announced his aim towards the ‘Sinicization‘ of Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to China’s socialist society. [Radio Free Asia] [South China Morning Post]

China: New law strengthens land border protection amidst regional developments

(tj) On Saturday, at the closing meeting of a legislative session of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Land Border Law was approved that affirmed China’s commitment ensuring its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

With China’s land border consisting of more than 22,000 kilometres and a coastline of over 18,000 kilometres, the law is widely seen as a reactionary response to the protracted tenuous relationship with India, political instability and associated possible terror threat posed by developments in Afghanistan, the spread of COVID-19 from Southeast Asia, and increased migration flows from Myanmar and Vietnam.

The law entails a broad-encompassing clarification of the leadership system, governmental responsibilities, military tasks regarding territorial boarders, defence management, international cooperation on land border affairs, and an affirmation that force will be used against those who illegally cross borders to commit particular crimes. 

This law represents the first time that Beijing has enacted a law pertaining to the governance of land borders that it shares with 14 countries. It will come into effect January 1 next year. [Global Times] [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

Japan: Election campaign kicks off

(lnl) Japan’s Lower House election campaign officially started on Tuesday, October 19, with the general election to be held on October 31. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by its new leader and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and its coalition partner Komeito are seeking a mandate for Kishida’s Covid-19 and economic policies, while opposition parties are uniting to break the LDP’s grip on power. The LDP has been in power almost continuously since its foundation in 1955 with the exception of a period between 1993 and 1994, and again from 2009 to 2012. [Reuters 1] 

Before the parliament was dissolved on Thursday, October 14, the LDP and Komeito held a supermajority of 305 of the 465 seats in the Lower House. Currently, a media poll by NHK shows reduced public support for the LDP with 38.8 percent compared to 41.2 percent a week earlier. A survey by Kyodo News, meanwhile, shows how nearly 30 percent of the respondents were still undecided on who to vote for in their single-member districts. However, the LDP is believed to be on its course to win at least 233 of the 465 seats. It remains to be seen whether the party can hold onto the 276 seats it had before the election. A Kyodo News survey showed on Sunday, October 24, nearly 30 percent of voters plan to cast ballots for the LDP. [Japan Today 1] [Kyodo News 1] [Kyodo News 2] [Reuters 2]

Domestic affairs, such as the economy and Covid-19 measures, were expected to be the primary concerns of the public, however, diplomacy and national security have emerged as key topics in the upcoming general election. Party leaders on both sides have presented campaign pledges regarding Japan’s alliance with the U.S. and the nation’s defense capabilities against China and North Korea. The ruling party LDP has made security policies the central issues to distinguish themselves from the opposition. The emphasis on foreign and defense policies reflects the rising tensions in the region. At the same time, voters are more aware of the increasingly precarious security environment surrounding Japan in the face of missile threats and territorial disputes in the South and East China seas. [The Japan Times 1] 

For more information regarding the competing parties’ policy pledges see [Japan Today 2] [Kyodo News 3]. 

About 1,040 candidates are expected to compete for the 465 seats in the House of Representatives. Less than 20 percent of them are women. Among the 330 candidates from the LDP 9.7 percent are women, compared to the main opposition party Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) where women constitute 18.3 percent of the 240 candidates. While an extraordinary two out of four candidates in the election for leadership of the LDP last month were women, progress to improve gender equality in national politics is slow. While women struggle to reach leadership positions in many sectors in Japan, the problem is especially pronounced in politics. [The Asahi Shimbun] [The Japan Times 2]

Japan: LDP loses one of two House of Councilors by-elections

(lnl) Two Upper House by-elections were held on Sunday, October 24, in Japan with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing the one in Shizuoka prefecture. The Yamaguchi constituency however, was won by the LDP.

In the Shizuoka constituency, Shinnosuke Yamazaki won a close race against Yohei Wakabayashi of the LDP. The independent Yamazaki is backed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and another opposition party. For the Yamaguchi prefecture, LDP’s Tsuneo Kitamura claimed the victory. The defeat in the Shizuoka prefecture is a blow for the LDP, however, media polls still suggest that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito will keep its majority in the upcoming House of Representatives election. [The Mainichi]

Japan: Former Justice Minister Kawai accepts jail term over vote buying

(lnl) On Thursday, October 21, Katsuyuki Kawai, a former Japanese Justice Minister, accepted a three-year prison sentence on account of buying votes for his wife in the 2019 Upper House election.

Kawai was Justice Minister under then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and is the first former Japanese Cabinet member in over ten years to receive a prison term. In June the Tokyo District Court found Kawai had handed out a total of 28.7 million yen (US$ 251.000) to supporters and members of the local assembly for votes for his wife Anri Kawai’s constituency in Hiroshima Prefecture. He is subjected to a 1.3 million yen forfeiture. Anri, who won a seat in the 2019 election, was sentenced in January this year by the Tokyo District Court to 16 months in prison and she is suspended for five years. [The Mainichi]

Japan: Online insults could be punishable by jail time

(lnl) Amidst a growing need to tackle cyberbullying, an advisory panel of the Justice Ministry on Thursday, October 21, approved a plan to introduce prison terms as part of tougher penalties for online insults in Japan. 

Presently, the penalty against insults is detention for less than 30 days or a fine of less than 10.000 yen. The drafted proposal includes the introduction of a prison term of up to one year and a fine of up to 300.000 yen. The advisory panel additionally discussed adding amendments to the criminal procedure law which would require defendants to wear a GPS device while on bail should they be deemed a flight risk. 

Recent high-profile cases in Japan involving cyberbullying include the death and apparent suicide of Hana Kimura, a professional wrestler and cast member on the popular Netflix reality show “Terrace House” in May 2020. [Kyodo News]

South Korea: Justice ministry orders military to drop its plan to appeal against soldier ruling 

(aml) The South Korean Justice Ministry ordered the military to drop its plans to appeal against judgement of Daejon District Court earlier this month. The court had found that the compulsory discharge of a young soldier over her gender reassignment surgery had been unfair. 

Byun Hee-soon had enlisted voluntarily and served two years before her gender reassignment surgery in 2019. Although she had expressed her wish to keep serving in the military as a female soldier, the military discharged her in January last year. Byun filed a lawsuit against the discharged but was found dead in March this year over apparent suicide. [The Korea Times]

The Justice Ministry stated in its order that “the court's ruling is not intended to allow transgender people to serve in the military, but it's saying that the military's compulsorily discharge order against the deceased, who was a woman at that time, for reasons such as the loss of the penis and testicular defects, is unlawful based on related laws”. [The Korea Herald]

South Korea: Umbrella union walks out despite social distancing rules 

(aml) The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KTCU), one of Korea’s two major umbrella unions organized 14 nationwide rallies on Wednesday, October 20, despite social distancing rules that made the strikes illegal. The rally in Seoul had about 27,000 participants calling for better treatment of irregular workers, unionization rights for all labourers and stronger action from the government on employment security. The police had warned before to respond sternly to the walkouts and installed walls of bussed along the major streets in Seoul [The Korea Herald]. 

Several Civic groups and local governments have now filed complaints against the KTCU for violating social distancing rules [The Korea Times 1]. President Moon Jae-in has urged the union to not walk out again this week since the massive rallies make it more difficult for health authorities to slow down the spread of Covid-19. [The Korea Times 2]

South Korea: Anti-stalking law comes into force 

(aml) On Thursday, October 21, an anti-stalking law took effect, providing punishment of perpetrators of up to three years in prison. Previously, stalking had been considered a misdemeanour in the criminal code with only less than 100,000 won ($85) in fines.  Now, acts of approaching, following or blocking a victim against his or her will, waiting to observe a victim around its residence, workplace, or school, sending unwanted messages, images, or videos, and causing anxiety or fear by destroying objects around the victim’s residence constitute stalking. Furthermore, the penalty can be extended to five-year imprisonment or a fine of 40 million won if a weapon or dangerous object is used. [The Korea Times

South Korea: Presidential election updates 

(aml) Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, presidential candidate for the ruling Democratic Party (DPK) has stepped down from his office to focus on his presidential election campaign. Lee had served as governor since 2018 and had to resign according to the Public Official Election Act which bans public officials from running for presidency. [The Korea Times 1] 

Although Lee had been very popular in September and early October, his approval rates have dropped in recent weeks due to his possible involvement in the Seongnam land development scandal that occurred during his time as the city’s major. [AiR, No.42, October/2021, 3]

On Sunday, October 25, Lee Nak-yon, former Prime Minister, openly declared to support Lee Jae-myung after his loss against him in the party’s primaries. This step had been awaited and considered as a key element for Lee Jae-myung to gain united support from his party. Both had criticised each other harshly during the primaries and some of Lee Nak-yon supporters even filed an injunction to nullify ex-Governor Lee’s victory. Moreover, Lee Jay-myung is widely regarded as a critic of president Moon Jae-in whilst Lee Nak-yon had been Moon’s first Prime Minister. Support from him could help ex-Governor Lee to present himself as someone who is able to overcome these conflicts and embrace party members how have different political opinions. [The Korea Times 2] [The Korea Times 3]

Meanwhile, leading presidential contender of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) Yoon Seok-youl has come  under pressure for remarks about ex-president Chun Doo-hwan. During a visit to Busan, Yoon said there were so many people who said Chun “did well in politics” except for the “military coups”. After coming to power through a military coup, Chun had been South Korea’s president from 1980-1988. In 1980, he ordered the deadly suppression of protesters in Gwangju, leading to a massacre. Yoon has since then apologised and clarified that he only wanted to emphasize his preference to let talented officials demonstrate their abilities rather than controlling everything they do if he becomes president. [The Korea Herald 1] Only hours after this apology, Yoon posted a picture on Instagram of him giving an apple to his dog. Since the Korean words for “apple” and “apology” are homonyms, the post is being interpreted as dismissing the people who demanded Yoon’s apology as dogs. This has sparked criticism from the DPK as well as from PPP members. [The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: Launches first homegrown space rocket 

(aml) On Thursday, October 21, South Korea launched its first homegrown space launch vehicle. The KSLV-II, called Nuri, started off from the Naro Space Centre. Although it completed its full flight sequence successfully, it failed to put the 1.5-ton dummy satellite into orbit as it had been supposed to do. The development of Nuri has cost South Korea almost 2 trillion won ($1.8 billion) since 2010, after previous launches in 2009 and 2010 failed. 

South Korea had been limited to develop own missiles under bilateral missile guidelines from 1979 from the US, but since they have been abolished in May this year to ensure that South Korea has full autonomy in developing space launch vehicles, South Korea has expanded its space program. [The Korea Herald]

Although South Korea says it intends to use Nuri to launch satellites, the launch is regarded as part of the current arms race between the two Koreas. While South Korea has recently tested a submarine launched missile, North Korea tested hypersonic and long-range weapons in the past weeks and even fired a submarine launched missile into Japan’s sea. [BBC News] [See AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1]

On the Seoul International Aerospace and Defence Exhibition (ADEX), South Korean president Moon Jae-in urged the country to redouble its efforts to become a global defence industry leader whilst assuring that “the goal of building strong defence power is always to foster peace”. South Korea plans to spend more than 80% of its acquisition budget on domestic supplies and its arms export between 2016 and 2020 were 210% higher than between 2011 and 2015. Furthermore, it is also one of the largest arms importers in the world. [Reuters]

At least 440 companies from 28 countries participated in the ADEX and about 300 government, military and defence acquisition officials were expected to attend. LIG Nex1, a South Korean precision missile developer used the exhibition to display its low-altitude missile defence system. 

The LAMD concept model consists of a missile launcher, a command post and a multifunctional radar which is supposed to intercept targets up to 7km away. It is part of South Korea’s efforts to establish an advanced layered air defence network including land- and ship-based missile defence systems. The LAMD is supposed to focus on neutralizing incoming artillery rockets from the North since North Korea is believed to have deployed hundreds of long-range missiles along the border. [Defense News]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Tens of thousands rally over attacks on Hindu temples and homes

(lm) Tens of thousands of people from minority faiths rallied in more than 60 places across Bangladesh on October 23 in protest against a series of deadly attacks on Hindu temples and homes earlier this month that left at least seven people dead and several injured. [The Straits Times]

Anti-Hindu mob violence began on October 15, when hundreds of Muslims protested in the country’s southeastern Noakhali district after rumors spread that the Quran had been insulted at a special pavilion set up for the annual Hindu religious festival, Durga Puja. Soon, the violence spread to other parts of Bangladesh. Temples were desecrated and hundreds of houses and businesses owned by Hindus – who make up about 10 percent of the country’s Muslim-majority population – torched. [AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3]

So far, police have arrested nearly 700 people in connection with the violent attacks. More than 70 cases have been filed against 24,000 suspects, most of whom are anonymous. Further, at least seven people have confessed to their crime under pre-trial hearings. [Hindustan Times 1]

Moreover, members of the Bangladeshi Hindu diaspora have been organizing protests in various countries, including India, the United States, Nepal, and Japan, calling for the safety of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. [Hindustan Times 2] [Khabarhub] [Kyodo News]

Speaking against this backdrop, Prime Minister Hasina on October 24 alleged that “quarters with vested interest are deliberately trying to tarnish the country's image” Religious unrest poses a challenge to Hasina’s Awami League, which has always portrayed itself as secular and minority-friendly, especially since becoming Bangladesh's ruling party in 2009. [Dhaka Tribune]

But while the government repeatedly assured the Hindu community and tried to take their representatives in confidence, it has also been accused of suppressing those groups that are quite vocal in highlighting the issues. According to Salish Kendra, a Bangladeshi human rights organization that documents attacks on minority communities, over 3,600 attacks targeting Hindus have taken place in Bangladesh since 2013. [Deutsche Welle]

In related news, the Twitter handles of two local Hindu advocacy groups – both of which were vocal in highlighting attacks – were suspended shortly after the violent attacks. [OpIndia]

Bangladesh: Several killed in Rohingya refugee camp attack

(lm) Unidentified gunmen killed seven people and wounded at least 20 in an assault on October 22 on an Islamic seminary in a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh’s district of Cox’s Bazar. It was not immediately clear why the violence broke out, but local media said two opposing sides were feuding to establish supremacy in the sprawling camp over an illegal drug business. [France24] [South China Morning Post]

The killings came amid mounting tensions after a Rohingya community leader, Mohib Ullah, was shot dead outside his office on September 29. No one has claimed responsibility for the murder, but some activists and Ullah’s family blamed militants from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an armed group present in the camp. [AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1]

Human Rights Watch said in a statement earlier this month that at least a dozen activists have approached the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) since the killing of the community leader, saying they had been threatened by militants.

India: Indian Muslims’ fear after forceful eviction drive in Assam state

(lm) The Indian northeastern state of Assam that shares a porous border with Bangladesh has become a flash point for communal tensions.

An effort by the state government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that also governs India, has displaced thousands of Muslim villagers living in Assam’s Darrang district to make way for a government-run farm project. The Gorukhuti Agriculture Project aims to develop the land for agriculture and parcel lots to the state’s Indigenous people. [The New York Times, $] 

Things spun out of control during the second round of evictions on September 23 when two people, including a teenaged boy, were killed and many others injure during clashes between policemen in riot gear and protesting villagers.

Days after the incident, Assam’s State Chief Minister Sarma said the government campaign targeted an exploding population of “illegal settlers” from Bangladesh who had planned to capture power by encroaching on government land and on adjacent land which belonged to an ancient Shiva temple. [The Washington Post, $]

The violent police action has deepened tensions between the state’s ethnic Assamese and Bengali-descent Muslims, who allege that the eviction drive is part of a broader campaign to portray them as foreigners unworthy of citizenship rights, who should go “back to Bangladesh” – despite most being born in India.

In recent years, authorities have sought to identify undocumented migrants by requiring all 33 million residents to provide documents and proof of relation to their parents to compile a citizenship registry, the National Register of Citizens. At the end of the nearly four-year exercise, over a million Bengali-origin Hindus and Muslims – many who had been born in Assam – found themselves left off the register, though the final result is pending a government-demanded reverification.

Meanwhile, a 2019 citizenship law provides fast-track citizenship for undocumented migrants from neighboring countries, as long as they are Hindu or one of five other religions, but not Muslim.

The controversy notwithstanding, Assam’s state government has said that it will continue with eviction operations against those encroaching on free government land. In fact, plans have already been firmed for another drive at a forest near the city of Lumding.

India: Man shot dead in Indian-administered Kashmir; home minister visits

(lm) Militants shot dead a civilian in Indian-administered Kashmir last week, as authorities tightened security across the territory for a visit by Amit Shah, India's Home Minister.

The victim is the latest casualty in a recent wave of targeted killings. Suspected militants have killed 12 civilians, including five migrant workers, as well as minority Hindus and Sikhs, in Kashmir since early October – despite a widespread security crackdown in the heavily militarized region [see AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]. Besides the civilians, 17 rebels and 10 security personnel have been killed. [The Straits Times]

Since then, authorities have moved thousands of migrant workers – who form the backbone of the region's workforce in agriculture and construction –to safer locations, while hundreds more have fled the valley. [CNN]

Against this backdrop of a deteriorating security situation, Amit Shah, India's Home Minister and effective deputy to Prime Minister Modi, on October 23 commenced a three-day visit to Kashmir. This is Shah’s first trip to the disputed territory since he architected the nullification of the region’s semi-autonomous status under the Indian Constitution in 2019, which was followed by a crippling communication and military lockdown for months. [Al Jazeera]

India: Migration from disputed border areas worries lawmakers in Arunachal Pradesh state

(lm) Lawmakers in India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh are trying to curb migration from villages near the country’s border with China to urban areas, warning that a thinning population poses a serious security challenge at a time of heightened tensions between the two Asian giants.

Beijing claims a major part of Arunachal Pradesh as part of the region of Southern Tibet, while New Delhi says the mountainous border state is an integral part of India.

In January, Indian broadcaster NDTV reported that Chinese forced had slowly but steadily cutting away small pieces of Indian territory, constructing a new village on what had been an empty hillside two years ago. The village of about 100 homes was built as the two countries were involved in a tense military standoff along the western Himalayan mountains in Ladakh. [AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]

Against this backdrop, eleven legislators representing constituencies bordering China’s Tibet Autonomous Region last month formed the Indo-China Border Development Legislators Forum of Arunachal Pradesh to highlight the security risks of continued migration and push for an increase in the Border Area Development Programme (BADP) to improve infrastructure in the border area. [The Straits Times, $]

In the past few years, there has been a steady migration of the villagers to the capital and largest city of Arunachal Pradesh, Itanagar, and other urban areas for livelihood.

Maldives: Police to remain under oversight of home ministry

(lm) The Maldives Police Service was reverted to the Home Ministry’s oversight last week, just days after a move that had removed the police from the ministry’s oversight had been met with wide criticism.

Earlier this month, the President’s Office in a letter on October 14 informed Home Minister Imran Abdulla that the police had been removed from the ministry’s oversight, citing the enactment of the Police Service Act. The Act, which came into effect earlier in March, does not state that the Police Service is required to be overseen by any ministry. [raajje]

However, Article 68A of the Police Act states that the home minister will be answerable to both the president and the parliament regarding the Police Service. It also states that the minister is the highest-ranking official that will be responsible for Maldives Police Service. Moreover, Article 242 of the Maldives' Constitution states that each security service shall be under the responsibility of a minister, who shall be answerable for its operations to the President and the Parliament.

Against this backdrop, the attorney-general on October 19 instructed the Home Ministry to make all necessary arrangements required to overseeing all operations pertaining to Maldives Police Service, and ensuring that the operations are in adherence to the Police Service Act. [SunOnline International]

Nepal: Opposition CPN-UML calls for leadership position

(ns) Nepal’s major opposition party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), has appealed for the role of authority in the Public Accounts Committee of Parliament, arguing that is should lead the parliamentary panel as a measure of close examination of government agencies‘ use of financial means. [The Kathmandu Post]

It is a common practice in Nepal for the opposition party to head the committee in order to scrutinize the actions of the ruling party under the checks and balances system. Out of 16 parliamentary committees, 10 are under Parliament’s lower House, four under the upper House, and two are jointly represented by the two Houses of Parliament.

Therefore, vacating the leadership of the accounts committee would mean the ruling Nepali Congress party would be commanding just one committee, the Sustainable Development and Good Governance Committee, in Parliaments upper chamber.

Pakistan: Islamists halt march to Islamabad after deal with government

(lm) Pakistan’s hardline Islamist Tehreek-e-Labiak (TLP) party has agreed to suspend a three-day-long march after the Khan-led government agreed to drop pending charges against the party’s leader and consider the expulsion of the French ambassador over caricatures of Prophet Muhammad.

More than 1,000 supporters of the religious group departed from the eastern city of Lahore on October 22 with the goal of reaching the capital, Islamabad, to pressure the government to release Saad Hussain Rizvi, the head of the TLP. [The Guardian]

Rizvi was arrested in April during demonstrations against the publication in France of caricatures of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad. At the time, Pakistan refused to expel the French ambassador and instead banned the TLP under the country's anti-terrorism laws. Rizvi had been detained on a charge of inciting people to assemble unlawfully. [AiR No. 17, April/2021, 4].

On October 24, the government said it would drop pending charges against Rizvi and take the issue of expelling the French ambassador to parliament for debate. In return, the TLP agreed to suspend its march toward Islamabad but said supporters would continue a sit-in at the town of Muridke — near Lahore — until the Pakistani government delivers its promises. It was unclear when Rivzi would be released. [Deutsche Welle]

The following day then, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad announced the government had released 350 TLP activists, while negotiations between the party’s leadership and a government committee continued. [Al Jazeera]

At least two policemen were killed during clashes between protesters and riot police in Lahore, authorities said, with unconfirmed reports of at least seven protesters also being killed or wounded by live fire. [France24]

Pakistan: Opposition alliance launches nationwide protests, as inflation hits record-high

(lm) Swarming the streets of Pakistan, supporters of opposition parties on October 20 demonstrated in various cities across the country to put pressure on the Prime Minister Khan-led government amid surging inflation. [Gandhara]

Earlier last week, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – a joint platform of opposition parties that was formed last year to oust Prime Minister Khan from power – had announced a 15-day nationwide protest, after a meeting of the alliance’s central committee on October 18. [Dawn 1] [South Asia Monitor]

Inflation hit its highest levels in 70 years earlier this week, as the purchasing power of the rupee decreases. As a result, food prices have doubled, while the prices of ghee, oil, sugar, flour and poultry have reached historic levels, The News reported on October 26. The rupee also traded at record lows against the dollar. [Geo News]

In related developments, Pakistani finance officials arrived in the United States earlier this month trying to close a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release a suspended $1 billion tranche from a bailout package, which Islamabad says is desperately needed to stabilize the country's struggling economy.

In total, Pakistan has so far received $2 billion via the so-called Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which should eventually bring Islamabad $6 billion. In the current fiscal year, Pakistan hopes to receive $3.1 billion from the IMF, subject to successful completion of quarterly reviews of the country’s economic policy and growth. But after the IMF had released a $500 million tranche in earlier in March – the third loan tranche under the EEF [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4], talks in June to release further funds were inconclusive [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3].

But the delegation left Washington on October 23 without having secured an arrangement with the IMF for the resumption of the loan facility. Miftah Ismail, a former Pakistani finance minister with the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), told Deutsche Welle that the IMF is demanding a 1 percent tax increase, to make up for decreases in taxes from Pakistan’s government in 2018. [Dawn 2] [Deutsche Welle]

Along with rising inflation and tax increases, consumers in Pakistan are also facing higher energy prices, as the Khan administration raised electricity taxes last week for the second time this year.

Sri Lanka: New constitution to be tabled in parliament early in 2022, foreign minister says

(egm/lm) The draft of Sri Lanka’s new Constitution has been finalized and is expected to pass through parliamentary perusal by early 2022, according to Foreign Minister G. L. Peiris. Formulated by a committee of experts appointed by President Rajapaksa Gotabaya and chaired by the president’s counsel, Romesh de Silva, the draft is currently awaiting to be sent to the Legal Draftsman’s Department. [EconomyNext]

The remarks by the Sri Lankan top officials come after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa earlier this month had reaffirmed a pledge to introduce a new constitution and a reformed electoral process in 2022, while also acknowledging certain shortcomings in the first two years of his tenure. [AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]

In 2019, the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party made platform speeches related to the abolishment of the country’s provincial council system, which has been strongly backed up by India with the introduction of the 13thAmendment to the current Constitution adopted in 1978. While the system was set in place in an attempt to solve the conflict between Sri Lanka’s armed forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the governments in power since then have avoided its full implementation.

In a recent attempt to hold the long-overdue Provincial Council Elections before the year’s end, the government sought the Cabinet’s approval in April to introduce a mixed electoral system comprising proportional representation and the First Past the Post System. [AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]

This matter was addressed by India’s Foreign Minister, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, earlier this month, in his meeting with President Rajapaksa on October 5. During the visit, the Indian top diplomat reiterated New Delhi’s demand for the devolution of powers to all nine provinces and the holding of Provincial Council elections in Sri Lanka as soon as possible. [AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2].

Moreover, previous attempts have been made in the past to change the current Constitution; however, since 1997 such attempts were aborted after months of deliberations and instead 20 amendments have been introduced so far.

One of the changes made since President Rajapaksa’s time in office includes the removal of the 19th Amendment adopted in 2015 which aimed to curtail presidential powers by strengthening the functions of Parliament. Its new replacement, the 20th Constitutional Amendment Bill, has aimed to remove the checks and balances on the president; thus sparking criticism from various opposition groups, human rights activists, the Bar Council and other groups claiming it allowed the president to amass extensive powers [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Sri Lanka: Demands for social media regulation on the rise

(egm) The general secretary of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party, Sagara Kariyawasam, has called for a legal framework to regulate social media content. The request is the latest in a growing number of similar demands of both government officials and opposition parties. [Economy Next]

Claiming that the lack of a legal framework for social media enabling the spread of misinformation and hate can pose a threat to the country’s stability, Kariyawasam proposed the development of a regulatory institution to verify the accuracy of the information posted on social media, while addressing on October 21.

Similarly, the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) has shared its wish for such regulations during MP Thalatha Athukorala’s address to Justice Minister Ali Sabry last week 

According to a statement made in August by Labour Minister Nimal Sirispala de Silva, there are currently no laws in Sri Lanka to suppress or regulate popular social network sites such as Facebook. Furthermore, he emphasized the need to curtail social networks in the country by banning or restricting such sites.

While social media sites have allowed the general population to express itself freely and critique the status quo, the same sites have also been widely used by government and opposition parties in their media campaigns, especially during elections.

In the Amnesty International Annual report of 2020/2021, members of Sri Lanka’s armed forces were mentioned for intimidating and attacking lawyers involved in cases of enforced disappearances via social media. Moreover, the report highlighted an increase in anti-Muslim rhetoric in social and mainstream media during the pandemic, which was in some cases promoted by senior government members. [Amnesty International]

The same report has also documented arrests in the context of COVID-19 against several social media commentators for publishing posts criticizing government officials and allegedly obstructing their duties. One of such cases includes the detention of activist Ramzy Razeek, who was arrested in April 2020 after expressing himself in a Facebook post. 

In related developments, a proposed bill known as the “Defense Cyber Security Commands Act” which was presented by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa earlier this month was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on October 11. The bill seeks to maintain electronic communication and cyberspace under supervision of terrorist activities, organized crime and anti-social activities [see AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3].

Sri Lanka: New amendments to Penal Code exempt minors from death sentence

(egm) Sri Lanka’s Justice Minister Ali Sabry has presented an amendment to the Penal Code in Parliament to replace the verdict of death sentence to minors with custodial sentences. [ColomboPage] [The Morning]

Currently, as per Section 53 of the Penal Code, convicted minors may be detained at the President’s will in lieu of being sentenced to death. The Ministerial Consultative Committee on Justice, however, has presented a new bill amending this provision further to revoke the detention of convicted minors at the President’s discretion and replace this punishment with a custodial sentence subject to the provisions of any written law.

As established by the Committee chaired by Minister Sabry on October 15, the Youthful Offenders training schools amendment bill and the Minister’s regulations made under Section 840 of the Civil Procedure Code (Chapter 101) read with Section 2014 of the Code, are scheduled to pass following the Parliament’s debate.

Additionally, the changes seek to raise the age limit of persons who would be rehabilitated to 22, whereas so far it has been set at 18. Furthermore, the bill also amends for the purpose of being gender neutral.

Sri Lanka: Cabinet to amend Kandyan Marriage and Divorce Act, Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act

(egm) Sri Lanka’s Cabinet has approved a proposal tabled by Justice Ministry Ali Sabry to repeal the provisions in the Kandyan Marriage and Divorce Act (KMDA) pertaining to the authorization of a minor’s marriage with the consent of a competent authority. According to a statement released on October 19, steps have also been taken to draft a bill to amend inconsistencies within the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act (MMDA). [EconomyNext]

Section 22 of the Marriage Registration Ordinance, which was amended by the Marriage Registration Act No. 12 of 1997, currently stipulates that the consent of a parent, guardian or competent authority is required for the marriage of children under the age of 18 [see Laws of Sri Lanka]. However, as established in the judgement of the Gunaratnam case against the Registrar General, minors under the age of 18 cannot enter legal marriage in Sri Lanka. [DailyMirror]

According to the ruling of the Gunaratnam v. Registrar General Case from 2002, since the prohibited marriage age had been raised to 18, the marriage of children under that age would be considered invalid regardless of the parental authority’s consent to the marriage [see Sri Lanka Law Reports].

In light of the inconsistencies, the Cabinet and Minister Sabri have agreed to repeal the provisions within the law related to the authorization of a minor’s marriage under the consent of a competent authority.

Similarly, as per Minister Sabry’s proposal to amend the Civil Procedure Code within the MMDA, a committee is also working on the draft of a new bill that will grant Muslim women further opportunities to govern their own marriage. Currently under the law’s registration of marriages section, Muslim women cannot sign their own marriage contract as this is done instead by their male guardian- known as “Bride’s Wali” [see LawNet].

In this context, following the demands of various women's organizations and Muslim law scholars for the removal of the MMDA, the government in July approved an amendment to the country’s Civil Procedure Code, permitting Muslim marriage and divorces under the common law [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4].

Sri Lanka: US Ambassador pays farewell call on foreign minister as new candidate advances for the position

(egm) The Ambassador of the United States to Sri Lanka, Alaina B. Teplitz, paid a farewell call on Foreign Minister Professor G. L. Peiris on October 21. During their meeting, the two diplomats discussed the future of bilateral relations between both countries, particularly in the areas of trade, investment, and cooperation in the international fora. [Ada Derana]

US President Joe Biden has nominated senior US diplomat Julie Chung to replace Ambassador Teplitz, who has been in position as Ambassador to Sri Lanka and Maldives since October 2018. The decision is currently pending State legislation; however, while testifying before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on October 20, nominee Julie Chung already pledged to reinforce constructive relations for the US in the Indo-Pacific by advancing democratic values, human rights and promoting a strong civil society in the region. [ColomboPage]

Chung has an extensive career as a member of the US Senior Foreign Service. This includes her recent position as Acting Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs in the U.S. Department of State, previous service as Chief of Staff in Baghdad, and varied diplomatic experience across East, South and Southeast Asia. [U.S Department of State]

Furthermore, during her speech before the Senate, Chung emphasized Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean as a guiding force for further Indo-Pacific economic and trading relations. Aiming to gain US access to the island nation’s vital ports with connections to global maritime lanes and trading routes, Chung has assured that her work will promote quality infrastructure and investment in the region following sustainable environmental and labor standards as well as international law and values of transparency and good governance. 

According to Chung, the US-Sri Lanka partnership must also address the ongoing ethnic and religious divisions within the island nation that followed the end of its civil war in 2009. In this respect, Chung’s speech established her commitment to collaborate with Sri Lanka to promote progress in the areas of justice, accountability and reconciliation. 

Sri Lanka has been under increasing international pressure to uphold its commitments to human rights, ensure accountability for perpetrators of war crimes and violence, and to engage in efforts of reconciliation with its Tamil minority community. Following the recent United Nations Human Rights Council’s 48th session, the UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet criticized the government’s lack of progress in these areas and requested the support of Member States through their involvement in encouraging the upholding of international human rights standards [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3].

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Constitutional amendment to prohibit dual nationals from constitutional offices

(tl) Cambodia's parliament approved a constitutional amendment preventing holders of dual citizenship from entering the country's highest offices, including that of Prime Minister. Heng Samrin, former president of the Cambodian National Assembly, said the amendments were aimed to oppose foreign interference in the country's internal affairs and in directing of its national and international policies. The approval follows Prime Minister Hun Sen's October 6 call for the defense minister to push for the amendment, justifying it as a means of demonstrating "loyalty to the nation" by elected officials. [AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]

The order by Hun Sen, one of the world's longest-serving leaders after more than three decades in power, came days after a report in the Guardian newspaper wrongly naming him as one of thousands of non-Europeans given Cypriot passports. 

According to Sam Rainsy, leader of the major opposition group and currently in exile in Paris, the amendment is against multiple members of the opposition. In fact, Rainsy himself holds French citizenship which, according to his statements, he would be willing to renounce in order to stand for the next elections in 2023. [Reuters] [AsiaNews (ITA)]

Cambodia: Police mishandles protesters during celebration of Paris Peace agreements

(tl) On the commemoration of the Paris agreements of 1991, protestors in front of the French embassy in Phnom Penh lashed with the police, while about 200 people demonstrated in Washington to demand that the US government imposes sanctions on Hun Sen's regime.

The protesters, in particular 20 wives of former opposition politicians imprisoned by Hun Sen's regime, were demonstrating to call on Paris to pressure the prime minister to return to compliance with the agreement. The police, who were waiting for the protesters and had deployed five times as many officers, broke up the demonstration, pushing and pinning the women to the ground to keep them still. 

The Paris Peace Accords, signed by the United Nations and 19 countries on October 23, 1991, ended the Cambodian Civil (and Proxy) War that ensued after Vietnam ended the Khmer Rouge regime 9n 1979 and helped rebuild the devastated country providing democratic rule through a constitution and elections. In the last elections in 2018, however, Hun Sen won all 125 seats in parliament, following the Supreme Court's ban of the main opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP). This preluded a broad crackdown on activists, NGOs and media by closing several newspapers, blocking webpages and arresting journalists.[Radio Free Asia] [The Diplomat]

Indonesia: President Joko Widodo begins eighth year with strong approval rating

(ms) President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) entered his eighth year in office on October 20, with an approval rating of 68.5 per cent, according to a survey conducted by private pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting. His ratings were higher at 71.4 percent before the COVID-19 outbreak hit Indonesia but have declined only slightly from 68.8 percent since October 2020. The current rating is relatively high in comparison with his immediate predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who had an approval rating of 46.2% at the start of his eighth year in office in October 2011. [Benar News] [The Jakarta Post] 

Analysts have attributed Jokowi’s relatively high rating in part to his ability to bridge political divides and expand his party coalition. The presidential candidate and the vice-presidential candidate whom Jokowi defeated in his 2019-relection - Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno – now serve in his cabinet as defense minister and tourism minister respectively. Plus, in August this year, Jokowi was able to gather the support of the National Mandate Party (PAN) in his already broad coalition to claim an 82% majority of the 575 seats at the House of Representatives. [Project Syndicate] [The Jakarta Post 2] 

Jokowi has also implemented of social policies resulting in a declining Gini coefficient of wealth inequality; developed bold infrastructure projects; and helped to raise Indonesia in the World Bank’s Doing Business index from 120th in 2014 to 73rd in 2020 despite setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic. [See AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2] All has been achieved while keeping Indonesia’s public debt low by international standards, at less than 40% of GDP. [Project Syndicate 2]

Analysts, however, have noted that Jokowi has prioritized the economy and development over social and political reform. During his time in office, authorities have been accused of increasingly using the Information and Electronic Transaction Law (ITE), meant to regulate online activity, as a way to silence dissent. [See AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2] As such, civil society has grown more cautious in expressing disapproval, with fewer public protests. During his final term, Jokowi has also steadily eroded the authority and independence of the Corruption Eradication Commission, undermining the very anti-graft platform he ran on when having been first elected in 2014. [Benar News 2] [The Jakarta Post 3] [See also AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

Furthermore, ex-generals and other representatives of the Suharto regime currently occupy important posts in his administration, which attracts criticism from human rights advocates. Defense minister General (ret.) Prabowo Subianto, inter alia head of the 27,000-strong Army Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) under Suharto who was his father in law, has been blamed for several atrocities committed by his troops. As defense minister, Prabowo strengthened the authority of the Defense Ministry to shape defense policy and control the weapons procurement policy at the expense of weakening legislative oversight and consultations with other stakeholders. He has placed emphasis on strengthening Indonesia’s external defense capabilities, rebalancing the force´s traditional land orientation with stronger sea and air capabilities. As detailed by a controversial leaked document in June 2021, he has also created a 25-year weapon procurement masterplan to be funded by long-term foreign debt at a cost of $125 billion, without the armed forces’ input or consultation. Analysts are concerned that Jokowi’s delegation of defense matters to Prabowo could set a precedent for reducing direct presidential control over the military. [The Diplomat] [The New York Times] 

Indonesia: 2022 state budget prioritizes health and social assistance, aims to close deficit

(ms) The Indonesia state legislature passed the 2022 state budget at the end of September, totaling around $190 billion. This includes IDR 96 trillion for the Ministry of Health, IDR 78 trillion for the Ministry of Social Affairs, 134 trillion for the Ministry of Defense, and IDR 111 trillion for the National Police. Spending on the areas most impacted by the pandemic – health and social assistance – continues to be a priority, accounting for 25 percent of the total budget. This is higher than the pre-pandemic level of 18 percent, although lower than last year’s peak of 30 percent. [The Diplomat]

The budget assumes that GDP growth will recover to around 5 percent in 2022, which will boost tax revenue to IDR 1,500 trillion (approximately $106 billion) and help to close the deficit widened during the pandemic over the last two years. Larger-than-usual deficits totaled 6.14 percent of GDP in 2020 and an estimated 5.82 percent in 2021. 

The government intends to bring the deficit down to 4.85 percent next year, although it is estimating this will still need to be financed by IDR 868 trillion ($61.5 billion). While their long-term goal is to reduce the deficit back to 3 percent of GDP, a higher deficit next year will still be needed in the short term to consolidate the post-pandemic economic recovery. 

Laos, UNICEF launched a new five-year program on child safety

(bs) The Lao Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) and UNICEF signed the new Government of Lao PDR and UNICEF Country Program Document 2022-2026 (CPD) setting goals for the wellbeing of children across the country. The parties agreed to implement the right of children to be heard by including the youths in programming and decision-making. The new CPD also identified a link between climate action and children’s rights aiming to increase awareness and resilience to climate change across all the sectors nationwide. [UNICEF] [Vientiane Times]

Laos: More funding for businesses hit by the pandemic

(bs) Lao PDR will receive a US$6.5 million grant to support the recovery of businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through a trust fund supported by Australia, Ireland, and the United States as part of the Competitiveness and Trade Project agreed between Lao PDR and the World Bank. [World Bank ] [Vientiane Times] The majority of COVID-19 relief funds have come from international aid agencies or foreign donors, as the country needs to cope with the ongoing repayment of the high national debt. [Asia Times] [Vientiane Times]

Malaysia: 456 deaths in custody in 2020

(tl) According to the Malaysian Human Rights Commission Suhakam several security agencies reported as many as 456 deaths in their custody for 2020. The Prison Department reported 363 deaths, followed by the Immigration Department (50), police (34), and the National Anti-Drug Agency (AADK) that reported nine. According to the report, health conditions are still the main cause of death, accelerated further by the global pandemic amid overcrowded prisons. Suhakam called on the government to investigate the deaths in custody, and added the necessity for a special law for such cases. [Malay Mail]

Malaysia: Migrant workers allowed to return 

(tl) Prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced to reopen borders to migrant workers after a 16-months ban due to the pandemic. Upon arrival, the estimated 32,000 foreign workers mostly from the agrarian sector will be vaccinated and put into a one-week quarantine. The decision is driven by the necessity to provide the country with a larger workforce, especially in the agriculture and construction sectors. 

Malaysia banned the hiring of migrant workers in June 2020 to prioritize jobs for locals in an economy wrecked by the Covid-19. Before the pandemic, between 1.7 and 2 million foreign workers were registered in Malaysia. As reported by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, foreign workers represented between 80-85% of the total workforce in the plantation sector. According to data provided by National Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia, to date the country needs about 350,000 foreign workers. [BenarNews]

Malaysia: Court grants citizenship to child born to Chinese mother

(tl) In a landmark decision, the Malaysian High Court has granted citizenship to a five-year-old girl born to a Chinese mother and a Malaysian father. The government had previously refused to grant citizenship to the child because, despite being born on Malaysian territory, her parents were not yet married at the time of birth. Malaysian law allows non-Muslim couples to legitimize a child by marrying later. 

Now, the High Court decided that the child should be granted citizenship as she fulfils two conditions set out in Article 14(1)(b) of the Federal Constitution. The child was born after Malaysia Day and, born to a parent permanently residing within the Malaysian Federation and not possessing the citizenship of another state, so consequently must be recognized as a Malaysian citizen. [Malay Mail]

Malaysia: Paternity leave proposal under consideration 

(tl) A bill to amend the current employment law, including a proposal for paternity leave for the first time has been submitted to parliament. The sections contained in the draft aim to help a worker who is married to receive leave equal to his daily wage for the three days following childbirth. Within the proposal there are also sections aimed at further limiting job discrimination and making improvements to maternity leave. The proposition aims to reach compliance with standards and practices required by the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the Malaysia-United States Labour Consistency Plan and the International Labour Organisation. [Malay Mail]

Myanmar: Plan to change electoral system

(nd) The military government appointed Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced plans to change the electoral system. Currently a “winner-takes-all” model, the plan foresees a proportional representation. According to Myanmar’s 2008 constitution, the military is reserved 25% of the seats in Parliament, with the rest of the votes determined on plurality or simple majority. With a proportional representation system, however, the military is likely to increase its control through additional representatives.

On February 28 already, just weeks after the coup, a meeting on the new election system was held between the UEC and mostly pro-military parties. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing said in August that no elections will take place before 2023. In the wake of the coup, over 1,000 people have been killed and more than 7,000 arrested, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP). The junta claimed to have ousted the National League for Democracy (NLD) for alleged voter fraud in their landslide victory in the country’s November 2020 general election, for which it has yet to provide evidence. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar’s climate-vulnerable geography

(ds) Brookings Institute’s Bruce Jones draws attention to Myanmar’s highly vulnerable geographical position, wedged between continental Southeast Asia and the Andaman Sea to the West. Jones refers to evidence suggesting that rising sea levels - a result of a warming global climate - and unusually strong monsoonal rains would increase the frequency of inundation, potentially affecting up to 70% of the low-lying delta of the Irrawaddy River. Beyond the high likelihood of catastrophic impact that this would have on Myanmar’s population of 56 million, flooding events would also put in jeopardy projects like China-led constructions including an oil pipeline and a deep-water port at Kyaukphyu, the latter Jones labels Beijing’s “bid for an equivalent to the Suez Canal”. [The Brookings Institute: To Rule the Waves: How Control of the World’s Oceans Shapes the Fate of the Superpowers]

Myanmar sits in a region that is also extremely susceptible to cyclonic activity. In 2008, the country was buffeted by Cyclone Nargis, a disastrous storm that led to 100,000 deaths. Further, the seawater dragged inland by floodwaters damaged up to 65% of the nation’s rice paddies and agricultural infrastructure. [The ASEAN Post] The instability wrought by the February 1 military take-over, coupled with a profound economic downturn, severely lessen the effectiveness of Myanmar’s climate mitigation and resilience policies. Should another widespread flooding or storm event occur, the geopolitical implications of a weakened Myanmar could provoke even greater spillover effects in bordering states, including millions more displaced persons.

Myanmar: Norwegian telecom firm departs; US-Singapore edging toward more financial pressure on regime

(ds) The Myanmar regime has requested that Norwegian telecommunications firm, Telenor, not terminate its operations in the Southeast Asian country. In July, Telenor announced the sale of its operations for a heavily discounted price, posting a reportedly almost $800mil loss. Entering the Burmese market in 2014, Telenor’s departure now is emblematic of Myanmar’s downward trajectory led by economic and social upheaval. [The Diplomat] 

Economic difficulties, a plunging value of the local currency and widespread unrest are seen as main drivers of the deteriorating conditions that seem to render foreign investment untenable under the current military government.

In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in conjunction with the United States, are collaborating to remove free access to the junta’s financial assets. Since the February 1 coup, international sanctions and boycotts have already made accessing capital complicated for the regime, which had been using Singaporean companies as a lifeline to maintain its finances. As Myanmar’s largest foreign investor, Singapore holds considerable leverage over the junta, hence negotiations for a US-brokered deal preventing cash flows would further isolate the regime. [The Irrawaddy 1]

Myanmar: Telecoms firm depart as US-Singapore edge to financial aid deal

(ds) The Myanmar regime has requested that Norwegian telecommunications firm, Telenor, not terminate its operations in the Southeast Asian country. In July, Telenor announced the sale of its operations for a heavily discounted price, posting a reportedly almost $800mil loss. Entering the Burmese market in 2014, Telenor’s departure now is emblematic of Myanmar’s downward trajectory led by economic and social upheaval. [The Diplomat] The UN, World Bank and other international observers have pointed to the economic crash, the plunging value of the local currency and widespread unrest as main drivers of the deteriorating conditions that are essentially rendering foreign investment untenable under the current military government.

In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in conjunction with the United States, are collaborating to remove free access to the junta’s financial assets. Since the February 1 coup, international sanctions and boycotts have already made accessing capital complicated for the regime, which had been using Singaporean companies as a lifeline to maintain its finances. As Myanmar’s largest foreign investor, Singapore holds considerable leverage over the junta, hence negotiations for a US-brokered deal preventing cash flows would further isolate the regime. [The Irrawaddy 1]

The Philippines: Department of Justice on War on Drugs; clearing President of wrongdoings

(lt) A Department of Justice report on 52 deaths related to President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs has absolved the political leader. His spokesman, stressed the President’s innocence claiming the killings were a matter of direct “command responsibility.” [Manila Times]

Meanwhile, the Department of Justice detailed a few related human rights abuses including the staging of gunfight battles during counter-narcotics sting operations and the case of a 17-year-old killed in an alleged police shootout in 2018. [Benar News]

The Philippines: Government units threaten candidates supporting rebel groups

(lt) The Department of the Interior and Local Government has denounced the Communist Party of the Philippines, the New People’s Army as well as the New Democratic Front, vowing to file charges against candidates financially supporting these rebel groups. 

This statement came following a news conference between President Rodrigo Duterte and Department of the Interior and Local Government Secretary Eduardo Año, who both warned of the legal repercussions should candidates provide financial assistance to insurgency groups. Año further maintained the act’s illegality under the Omnibus Election Code, which details one to six years’ imprisonment for rogue candidates and disqualification from any public office. [Manila Bulletin]

The Philippines: Provincial governments seek greater powers, advance information amid COVID-19 crisis

(lt) Provincial governments have appealed to national authorities for wider powers and advance information relating to establishing COVID-19 alert levels.

The alert system was introduced in several areas of Manila on Wednesday 20 October in an attempt to curb rising infection rates, though provincial officials were only notified a day prior to its implementation. Local authorities have criticized the delay, with Marinduque official Governor Presbitero Velasco Jr. noting how more notice is required to implement local executive orders and explain the alert system to citizens. [ABS-CBN News]

Thailand: Court denies opposition leader to provide bail for student activist

(kk) A court rejected a bail request by opposition leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit for the temporary release of a student activist charged with royal defamation. The leader of the Progressive Movement offered to be the bail guarantor and to use 200,000 baht from the Ratsadon fund, which is based on donations, as a surety. [Bangkok Post]

Benja Apan – one of the student leaders of the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration – has been arrested for royal defamation charges over a speech at two protests including one in front of the German embassy on October 2, 2020. [See AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]

The Court dismissed the temporary bail requests for both cases, providing that the activist has previously violated her bail conditions.

Thanathorn criticized the court would treat people facing the same charge by different standards adding that there have been over 800 political cases filed against activists and protesters for lese majeste and other security laws such as the Computer Crime Act. Thanathorn said the royal defamation law was employed by the government as a political weapon against those who criticize the government or demand for a reform of the monarchy. [Thairath, in Thai]

Thanathorn himself was also charged with royal defamation in relation to a livestream in which he criticized the government’s vaccine procurement strategy for solely relying on Siam Bioscience company, a company that belongs to the Crown Property Bureau, which manages the king’s personal investment and assets. [See AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4] [See also AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

Thailand: Constitutional Court refuses to remove deputy leader of governing party from office 

(kk) The Constitutional Court ruled that Paiboon Nititawan, MP and deputy leader of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), retains his disputed MP status. Paiboon was accused of joining the PPRP in violation of the country´s rigid political party law as he still had duties for his previous party, the dissolved People Reform Party. When joining Paiboon was legally still bound to remain as the party leader for the People Reform Party until all its accounting transactions and financial matters were handled which he allegedly did not comply with. [Bangkok Post]

The court ruled that Paiboon's MP status was not affected by the issue as the dissolution of his former party was legal. The process of him joining the ruling party was also in compliance with the constitution as the process was completed within 60 days since the party dissolution. [Thai PBS World]

Thailand: Opposition party to reset strategy for upcoming elections 

(kk) The biggest opposition party is undergoing a rebrand as it sets the political compass for the next general election. Pheu Thai Party (PTP) released a set of posters for its annual meeting in the Northeastern region on October 28, bearing the slogan, "tomorrow Pheu Thai for a new life for the people". According to observers, the "tomorrow Pheu Thai" campaign indicates radical changes within the party and is consistent with the party´s informal leader, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's political talks in ClubHouse. 

PTP is expected to unveil its potential prime ministerial candidates at its annual assembly being the only major party that has yet to announce its PM candidates. [Bangkok Post 1]

One of the candidates could be Srettha Thavisin – chief executive of a real estate development company –, who is reportedly a close friend of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, a sister of Thaksin. [Bangkok Post 2]

Two of the party´s three PM candidates in the 2019 election have quit the party to go their own political ways – Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan founded a new party called Thai Sang Thai, while the other one, Chadchart Sittipunt, is currently striving to become Bangkok governor as an independent candidate. Candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri is not considered a strong challenger to Prayuth by political observers. [Thai PBS World]

Meanwhile, a recent survey by the National Institute of Development Administration – referred to as Nida Poll – found that 48.33% of respondents in the Northeast, the country´s most populous region by far, would vote for Pheu Thai in the next election, with many voters still being undecided. [Bangkok Post 3]

Thailand: Court dismisses case against PDRC leaders

(kk) The Appeal Court dismissed a case against three People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) members, while sentencing a news station director to 8 months in prison. 

The four faced eight charges in total such as rebellion, sedition, causing public disorder while armed, and obstructing the 2014 general election and trespassing into government buildings during the 2013-2014 PDRC protests. The PDRC protests prepared the stage for the military coup in 2014 led by General Prayuth Chan-O-Cha. [Prachatai]

Thailand: Governing party secretary-general defends survey on his party´s factions popularity 

(kk) Thammanat Prompow, secretary-general of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), defended a popularity survey conducted by his faction within the governing party. The secretary-general said the survey was reliable, aiming to assess the MPs’ performance in order to give the party an idea on how to enhance the PPRP’s chance of winning the next election. [Bangkok Post 1]

According to the poll, the popularity of some PPRP MPs in the South has declined, for having only been elected because of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha’s popularity rather than their own support base. MPs in the North and Northeast, many of whom belong to Thammanat’s party faction, were elected due to other factors rather than relying on the popularity of Prayuth.

Some MPs of the increasingly divided PPRP were suspicious that the poll might have been conducted to be used as an excuse for not fielding MPs who failed to meet the criteria in the next election, some questioned that it might be used to pressure those MPs to join Thammanat’s faction. [Bangkok Post 2]

Rong Bunsuaikhwan, s a member of the PPRP's executive committee, said the poll issue was expected to be discussed in the party’s committee meeting on October 26 adding that he did not believe that the party would use the poll result as a basis to decide on MP candidates in the next election. [Matichon, in Thai]

Vietnam: Draft law on Intellectual Property

(bs) The National Assembly started works for a revision of the Law on Intellectual Property (IP) after the country has experienced a shift from being a user of IP to a creator. Due to this transition, there was a considerable increase in violations of copyrights. 

Inter alia, the draft law prescribes automatic registration of inventions or industrial designs, that are based on official assignments funded by the State budget to the superintending organization. [Nhan Dan]

Vietnamese journalist suffers from poor health in detention

(bs) A journalist who had received the Press Freedom Prize in 2019 from Reporters Without Borders and who is detained since October 2020 has lost 10 kilograms and suffers from various illnesses, according to her lawyer. She was arrested in October 2020 for opposing the State of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam under article 117 of the Vietnamese Penal Code by “making, storing, distributing, or disseminating information, documents and items against the Socialist Republic of Vietnam” in the wake of thorough implementation of policies against political dissent. 

She has not received a medical checkup since her arrest. Despite the availability of medical clinics in detention centers, it remains allegedly difficult for political prisoners to access medical treatments.

A former political prisoner said that exposure to extreme stress conditions in detention could be one of the causes of the journalist’s health decline. While pre-trial detainees are not allowed to see their families, those detained for political reasons are also denied to see their lawyer [Radio Free Asia]

Vietnam: Debt payment due for uncompleted rail line constructions

(bs) Vietnam is now expected to start repaying the $670 million debt to China for the construction of a rail line in the capital. The works on the railway began in October 2011 with completion being expected by 2015. 

Due to the delay of construction works, the 13.5-kilometer line has yet to start its service, and the total cost of the project has now almost doubled, rising from $553 million to $868 million in a decade. 

The drastic increase of the costs was included among the forecasted risks along with the “failure to ensure the safety of the electric traction and brake systems”. To date, eight out of ten emergency procedures had failed on the line’s test run urging new scrutiny of the project. [Radio Free Asia]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China: Tit-for-tat declarations at UN over human rights in Xinjiang

(dql) On Thursday, October 21, France on behalf of 43 countries – including the US, Canada and Australia as well as the European powers Germany, Turkey and the UK – read out a joint statement at the 6th session of the United Nations General Assembly to reiterate long-standing concerns over reports on “widespread and systematic human rights violations” in Xinjiang, urging Beijing “to allow immediate, meaningful and unfettered access to Xinjiang for independent observers.” Interestingly, Japan was the only Asian country among the signatories of the statement. [Permanent Mission of France at the UN] 

This prompted an immediate counter-statement, with Cuba making a joint statement on behalf of 62 countries expressing support for China’s development of an “own pattern on human rights that fits its conditions and oppose other countries’ interference in China's internal affairs under the banner of human rights.” [Global Times] 

While the France-led statement obtained four additional signatories compared with a similar statement last year read by Germany, Cuba’s statement saw a rise of new signatories by 17. [Aljazeera]

Attacking France over its statement, China’s Ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun warned Paris and “other followers of the US” of submitting “independence and autonomy, and serving as the henchmen of the US.” [South China Morning Post]

China-US relations: Trade talks held

(dql) During a virtual meeting on Tuesday, October 26, Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reached an agreement to step up trade policy coordination. The video call was held at the request of the US. It was He’s and Yellen’s second call since Joe Biden took office. He also held talks with US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, reflecting engagement on both sides amid high running tensions on multiple other fronts.

While both sides abstained from disclosing details, the call is seen by observers as laying ground for further efforts to solve ongoing trade issues, with phase one trade deal to expire on the December 31 expiry of the two countries’ approaches. [South China Morning Post] [Reuters]

China: US LNG provided signs huge contracts with Sinopec

(dql) Venture Global LNG, a provider of U.S. liquefied natural gas, has concluded three long-term LNG supply contracts with Chinese firms China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec), world's largest oil refining, gas and petrochemical conglomerate and Unipec, Sinopec’s trading arm.

The three contracts include two 20-year sales and purchase deals for a combined 4 million tonnes of LNG per year, while under the third deal Venture Global guarantees to supply 1 mtpa of LNG from its Calcasieu Pass Facility for three years starting March 1, 2023. 

The deals come as China is facing shortages of domestic power and mounting gas prices. [Reuters]

China-Africa trade to re-bounce

(dql) Latest Chinese customs data indicate that China’s trade with Africa is set to return to pre-pandemic levels, with January to August this year seeing total two-way trade between China and African countries growing by 40% year on year to US$162.7 billion. 

In 2020, the figure for 12 months dropped 11 per cent year on year to US$187 billion, after growing 2 per cent to US$208.7 billion in 2019, before the coronavirus emerged. In the year to the end of August, China purchased goods worth US$68.8 billion, a rise of 45% compared with the same period last year. It has continued to source raw materials such as oil, cobalt and copper, along with agricultural products. [South China Morning Post]

North Korea-US relations: “No preconditions” for talks, US senior diplomat says

(dql) Speaking at the UN Security Council on Wednesday, October 20, US ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the US has offered to meet North Korea without preconditions and made clear that Washington has no hostile intent toward Pyongyang. At the same time, she insisted that Pyongyang “must abide by the Security Council resolutions.” 

North Korea has long accused the United States of having a hostile policy toward the Asian state, asserting from this its right to develop weapons for self-defense, while it has been subjected to UN sanctions since 2006, which have been steadily tightened in an attempt to cut off funding for Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The measures include a ban on ballistic missile launches, repeatedly broken by North Korea’s military.  [Reuters]

The day earlier Thomas-Greenfield spoke at the Security Council, Pyongyang successfully test-fired a new ballistic missile from a submarine, the latest in a string of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. [BBC]

Thomas-Greenfield’s statement came on the heels of her discussions in Washington on the nuclear stand-off with Pyongyang with US special representative for North Korea Sung Kim, Noh Kyu-duk, South Korea’s special representative for Korean peninsula peace and security affairs, and Funakoshi Takehiro, director general for the Asian and Oceanian affairs bureau at Japan’s foreign ministry. According to the US State Department, all sides ““reaffirmed their commitment to working trilaterally to reduce tensions and make progress toward the shared goal of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.” [South China Morning Post]

For a critical assessment of the US North Korea policy, see Yoon Young-kwan in [The National Interest] who argues in favor of a “bold” approach toward Pyongyang under which “the United States needs to consider a détente with North Korea as it did with China in the early 1970s.” The purposes of such a policy include “communicating more closely with its top leader, getting North Korea out of its diplomatic isolation, accomplishing the goal of complete denuclearization, and inducing North Korea to become not just a normal state but a partner of the United States.

China: Xi Jinping book launch events cancelled due to Beijing’s pressure

(dql) China is facing fresh accusations of interference in academia following the cancellation of events of Confucius Institutes of the German universities in Duisburg-Essen and Hannover at which a new book on Chinese President Xi Jinping, titled Xi Jinping – the Most Powerful Man in the World, was supposed to be launched. The publisher Piper revealed that the events were cancelled because of Chinese pressure.

The Chinese embassy in Berlin, meanwhile, commented that China “firmly oppose[s] the politicisation of academic and cultural exchange activities” at Confucius Institutes. 

The incident comes at a time when Confucius Institutes have come under increased scrutiny across the world amid concerns over interference and censorship in teaching and research as well as over the institutes being a way for Beijing to spread Chinese propaganda in the guise of educational activities. [South China Morning Post]

China: New space weapon under construction

(dql) A group of Chinese scientists has reported developed a device capable of putting explosives into a satellite’s exhaust nozzle. The robotic anti-satellite weapon employs a locking capability to stay inside a probe for an extended period and place melt-cast explosives that cause time-controlled explosions.

Weighing only 3.5 kilograms (7.7 pounds), the high-powered explosives are packed into a bullet-shaped device nearly similar to a de Laval nozzle. When detonated, the explosion damages a probe’s internal components while allowing its overall structure to remain intact. Since the heat of the explosion can be partly converted to kinetic energy, satellite operators could mistake the blast for an engine malfunction. [South China Morning Post]

Japan: PM calls for greater military capability and spending amid Russian vessels entering Sea of Japan

(lnl/dql) In a public debate on October 18 with eight other political party leaders ahead of the upcoming national election on October 31, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for increases in Japan’s military capability and spending in the face of what he described as growing threats and aggression from China and North Korea. 

According to the prime minister, Japan’s security environment has been rapidly changing. Kishida said Japan should consider acquiring the ability to strike back at an enemy base as a deterrence option which is permissible under international law. However, critics say that such pre-emptive strike and strike-back options are controversial, as they go beyond Japan’s war-renouncing constitution. The constitution restricts the use of force to self-defense. 

Kishida made the statements a day after he visited Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo which is dedicated to 2.5 million Japanese who died in wars beginning in the 19th century and including World War Two, including war criminals prosecuted for ”Class A” crimes by the International Military Tribunal for the Far East in 1946. [Nippon.com] [See AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3]

Observers believe that Kishida has become more hawkish in an apparent attempt to gain support within his party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which is controlled by right-wing heavyweights including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, it remains to be seen how Kishida will gain support from his coalition partner Komeito which is considered a pacifist party. [The Diplomat] 

Japan’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile has confirmed that five Russian navy ships entered the Sea of Japan through the Tsushima Strait in the country’s southwest on Saturday, October 23. The confirmation came only a few days after a group of ten Chinese and Russian warships conducted a joint maritime patrol and sailed through Tsugaru Strait, which separates the Sea of Japan from the Pacific, on Monday, October 18. The move is wide seen as demonstrating China and Russia moving closer and deepening strategic trust to counter the US and its allies. [Japan Today] [AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3]

South Korea, Turkey vow to improve bilateral ties 

(aml) South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu have met in Seoul on Friday, October 22, to discuss possibilities to improve their cooperation. The ministers talked about ways to help South Korean firms to expand their economic ties and to increase cultural and personnel exchanges between the countries. South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong asked for Turkey’s support on the peace process with North Korea. After the meeting, they signed a pact for the avoidance of double taxation between the countries as well as a scientific and technological cooperation. [The Korea Herald ]

Furthermore, South Korea has signed a declaration of intent to supply engines for Turkey’s domestic main battle tank (MBT) Altay. The South Korean companies responsible for the supply are supposed to be Doosan Infracore Co. and S&T Dynamics Co. Although Turkey already started the MBT project in 2007, the procurement of the engine had been difficult since some European companies refused to sell the powering unit due to a decision of Germany to limit arms exports to Turkey. [Daily Sabah]

South Korea, Paraguay vow to boost trade cooperation 

(aml) On Thursday, October 21, South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo and his Paraguayan counterpart Luis Alberto Castiglioni Soria discussed ways to promote bilateral exchange and investment during their meeting in Seoul. Yeo stressed the need to speed up negotiations and successfully complete a Korea-Mercosur trade agreement. Mercosur includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay which make up 70% of the region’s economy. South Korea and Mercosur held their seventh round of negotiations in August. [The Korea Herald]

South Korea, Kazakhstan discuss ways to improve cooperation 

(aml) South Korean Industry Minister Moon Sung-wook and Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Roman Skylar have met on Thursday, October 21, in a follow-up meeting after the two countries have signed memorandums of understanding for cooperation in industry fields such as automobiles, natural resources, and healthcare, during the visit of Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev in South Korea in August this year. [AiR, No.34, August/2021, 4]. The ministers elaborated ways to push forward several joint economic projects and the discussions will continue through the bilateral dialogue channel of the economic joint committee. [The Korea Herald]

Mitsubishi Heavy appeals South Korean court’s asset sell order 

(aml) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has appealed a South Korean court’s order to sell assets in South Korean to compensate wartime forced labor victims. [The Korea Times] In 2018, the South Korean Supreme Court had ordered Mitsubishi to compensate 11 workers with up to 150 million won ($133,000) [The New York Times] but Mitsubishi refused to comply with the judgement, saying that all claims from forced labor or sex slavery victims have been settled under the 1965 agreement that had been supposed to normalize the ties between South Korea and Japan after Japan’s colonial rule over South Korea from 1910-1945. In 2019, the plaintiffs had thereupon asked the Daejon District Court to seize the company’s assets in South Korea and the court accepted the request. [AiR, No.34, August/2021, 4]

South Korea, Israel agree to cooperate in drone technology 

(aml) Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) have signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday, October 20, on the establishment of a loitering weapons program to increase the effectiveness of strikes against enemy air defenses. The agreement was made on the occasion of the Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition 2021 and followed an initial agreement between the two companies in March this year. 

IAI and KAI plan to develop “next-generation unmanned aerial vehicle technology” with “solutions that meet various customer needs”. The cooperation seeks to combine IAI’s capabilities in the field of loitering weapons and the South Korean Army’s pursuit of manned-unmanned teaming. Loitering weapons combine capabilities of drones and missiles while searching, identifying, and attacking especially sensitive and moving targets. [Defense News]

South Korea, India partnering up to export K9 howitzers to third countries

(aml) India and South Korea are seeking to export K9 self-propelled howitzers to third countries. The howitzers were manufactured by the Indian company L&T in technical collaboration with the South Korean company Hanwha Defense. India’s military has recently rolled out 100 K9 howitzers to multiple areas, including some bordering China. The collaboration between the two countries is consistent with India’s “Make In India” initiative aimed at turning the country into a global manufacturing hub as well as with South Korea’s “New Southern Policy” which seeks to advance ties with India among others. And while India’s ultimate goal is self-reliance, the cooperation is supposed to be a win-win situation since South Korean companies have been trying to strengthen their footholds in the Indian market. [Yonhap News Agency]

The US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacks, Biden says

(zh) US President Joe Biden has pledged to come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese attack. He confirmed that the US “have a commitment to do that,” when replying to a question whether the US would defend Taiwan should China attack the island raised at a CNN town hall. [CNN] [Reuters 1]

The White House, however, was quick to comment on Biden’s statement declaring that there is no change in Washington’s policy toward Taiwan and adding that the US will continue to support the island’s self-defense and oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo across the Strait. In line with the White House, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also said the Pentagon would continue to support Taiwan’s military, declining to answer whether the US troops would defend the island if China invades. [Reuters 2][Taipei Times]

In response to Biden’s statement, China insisted that there is “no room for concessions” with regards to the country’s core interests and reiterated the Chinese determination and the capacity to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity. [South China Morning Post]

The informal US-Taiwan relations are conducted under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and Six Assurances, both of which allow the US to engage with Taiwan and provide arms sales to the island without violating the one-China policy. 

Regarding the defense of Taiwan, the US has been maintaining its long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity”. Earlier in May when asked about strategic ambiguity, the US policy coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell warned that a clear statement toward the defense of Taiwan carries “significant downsides”, opposing calls for “strategic clarity” over the island [Reuters 3]. 

In a separate development, the to-be US ambassador to China Nicholas Burns has called for continued commitment to Washington’s longstanding One-China policy and defended the US increased security assistance to Taiwan. Speaking at his Senate confirmation hearing, Burns has described Beijing’s recent airplane incursions to Taiwan as “especially objectionable” and said the US arms provisions to the island would “make Taiwan a tough nut to crack”. [CNN][Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan, US discuss UN participation

(zh) Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has urged the United Nations (UN) not to bow to China, saying the UN Resolution 2758 only deals with the issue of China’s representation in the UN system and does not mean Taiwan is a part of China. Condemning the UN Secretariat for misinterpreting the Resolution, the Ministry underlined: “The government of the PRC has not ruled Taiwan for a single day and naturally has no right to voice for Taiwanese.” 

The remarks of Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry came ahead of the 50th anniversary of the resolution, which was passed by the UN General Assembly on October 25, 1971, and states that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the only legitimate representative of China to the UN, instead of the Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan’s official name. [Taipei Times 1][Taiwan News]

In an echo to the comment, the US State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia said China has “misused” the Resolution to block Taiwan’s UN inclusion n and the exclusion of the island nation “creates an immense cost”. [South China Morning Post]

Later after the remarks, Taiwanese and US officials discussed Taiwan’s possible “meaningful” participation in the UN system. [The Guardian]

In response, China has slammed the claim as “utterly unjustifiable”, reiterating the island is an inalienable part of China and Beijing’s opposition to moves aimed at creating “two China” or “one China, one Taiwan” and seeking “Taiwan independence”. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, warned in a speech marking 50 years of China in the UN that international rules and order should not be dictated by a single power or one bloc, a thinly veiled criticism of the US. [China Daily] [BBC]

In a separate development, the US Democratic Senator Edward Markey, who chairs the East Asia Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan have introduced a bipartisan bill that is aimed at lowering tensions and risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait. The proposed Taiwan Actions Supporting Security by Undertaking Regular Engagements (Taiwan ASSURE) Act supports dialogue to mitigate misunderstanding and calls for prioritizing the use of a military crisis hotline between China and the US. If passed, the legislation would provide US$2 million annually from next year to 2025 for the Department of State and Department of Defense to support strategic dialogue on cross-strait stability issue. [Taipei Times 2]

Britain warns against China’s dangerous military incursions 

(zh) Britain’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has called on China to find a peaceful way to resolve the dispute with Taiwan, warning Beijing’s recent increased incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) were “in danger of destabilizing the region […] and provoking further conflict in other disputed areas.” Describing the move of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as “posturing” and “unwise”, Wallace expressed his worries over Taiwan, citing China’s breach of “one country, two systems” framework in Hog Kong since “Taiwan was effectively included in it”. 

Wallace made the statement during a visit to Brussel for a NATO meeting. It comes after the Royal Navy Frigate HMS Richmond passed through the Taiwan strait en route to Vietnam, prompting strong condemnation from Beijing. [Reuters] [See AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]

Further reflecting closer cooperation between Taiwan and Britain, both sides held the 24th annual trade talks, aiming to deepen bilateral trade partnership in fields of energy, agriculture, financial services, and technology. [Energy Live News][Taiwan News]

Taiwan-Australia relations: Deepening ties

(zh/dql) Reflecting Australia’s increasingly robust stance towards China over Taiwan, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton stated in an interview on Sunday, October 24, that Australia will stand with the U.S. in case China would launch a military attack on Taiwan. He added that “China’s been very clear about their intent with regard to Taiwan,” in response to the question whether Canberra would be at war with China at some point in the future. [Taiwan News] 

Dutton’s statement came on the heels of US President Biden’s statement on the US commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack on the island (see entry above).

Meanwhile, Australia is also seeking to deepen energy ties with Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan confirming that Canberra wants to help Taiwan decarbonize its economy, hoping to further deepen the energy ties with the island. [The Guardian]

Taiwan’s foreign minister to visit the Czech Republic and Slovakia

(zh) Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu will visit the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic next week to deepen the ties with the two Central European Countries. During his stay in Slovakia, Wu will give a keynote speech at an annual conference themed “Resilience in a post-pandemic world” and organized by local think tank GLOBSEC. In the Czech Republic, Wu will receive a medal from the President of the Czech Senate Miloš Vystrčil and meet with Prague Mayor Zdeněk Hřib. Both Vystrčil and Hřib had previously visited Taiwan. [Focus Taiwan 1]

Wu’s trip also includes a virtual address to a forum in Rome held by the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), an international cross-party group of parliamentarians. The forum aims to stage a counter-meeting ahead of the G20 Leaders Summit to demand a tougher stance on China. [Taipei Times]

Wu’s trip will coincide with the ongoing visit of a Taiwan trade delegation led by National Development Council (NDC) chief Kung Ming-hsin to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Lithuania. The delegation is holding high-level economic consultations in the Czech Republic and a trade and investment forum in Lithuania and has so far concluded seven Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with Slovak officials and scientists. The MoUs seek to expand bilateral collaboration in various areas including supply chains, research and development, trade, investment, tourism, and smart cities, among others. [Focus Taiwan 2] [Focus Taiwan 3]

China expressed “strong dissatisfaction” about Wu’s trip and urged the two Central European Countries not to “undermine the political foundation of bilateral relations”. [Reuters] 

EU Parliament passes resolution to upgrade ties with Taiwan

(zh) The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution slamming China’s “military belligerence” and urging to strengthen the EU’s ties with Taiwan. The resolution, adopted with a majority of 580 to 26 votes, requests the European Commission to “urgently begin an impact assessment, public consultation and scoping exercise on a bilateral investment agreement”. It also demands the bloc’s trade office be renamed the “European Union office in Taiwan”, in effect upgrading the mission since, under the One-China policy, neither the EU nor any member states have formal diplomatic relations with the island. 

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry expressed gratitude for the move, saying the resolution “set a new milestone” for the bilateral relations. Meanwhile, China voiced “strong condemnation” against the EU’s move, calling on the EU to “immediately stop words and actions that undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” [Focus Taiwan][Reuters]

In an earlier development, as seen by [South China Morning Post], Chinese ambassador to the EU Zhang Ming had issued a letter calling on European Parliament President David Maria Sassoli to “leverage” his role to influence opinion, saying the issue of Taiwan has “simply no room for compromise.”

In another development, EU Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager has said the EU is to further engage with Taiwan to defend democracy, freedom and an open market and bolster cooperation in semiconductor supply chain under the One-China policy, adding that China’s military assertiveness “may have a direct impact on European security and prosperity.” She also said the EU hopes Taiwan could become an important partner to help the bloc realize the “European chips act”, which was prompted by the recent chip shortage and covers research and production capacity. [Taipei Times]

Earlier this month, the EU had made a pitch for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to invest in the bloc, describing the technology as “a question of security” [see AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3].

Taiwan’s ban on Japanese nuclear food imports to be key topic for CPTPP talks

(zh) Taiwan’s decade-long ban on Japanese food imports from areas affected by the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster would be the key topic in bilateral negotiations on its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), said Minister Without Portfolio John Deng. He also said Taiwan hopes Japan can take the lead to discuss the bid, adding Tokyo’s support would “reassure” the island. Although Tokyo said it would not make the issue’s resolution a condition for its support of the island’s application to the trade bloc, Taipei said “it will bring the issue to the negotiation table” once official talks start. [Japan Forward][Taipei Times 1]

Taiwan had applied for joining the CPTPP in September, less than a week after China announced its application. Earlier, the island’s President Tsai Ing-wen had warned Taiwan would have to overcome some “political problems” in joining the trade pact, referring to Beijing’s obstruction if it would become CPTPP member ahead of Taiwan [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]. 

In a separate development, Taiwan’s former minister of finance and first ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Yen Ching-chang has called for the use of “Taiwan” in joining the CPTPP, saying the island’s antiquated naming convention minimized the country’s sovereignty. Taiwan now joins the WTO under the name “the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu”. It also uses the same name to apply for joining the CPTPP. [Taipei Times 2]

Opposition Party KMT proposes “four safeguards” on cross-strait relations

(zh) The chairman of Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Eric Chu has spoken of “four safeguards”, calling on Chinese President Xi Jinping to recognize the “undeniable fact that Sun Yat-sen’s overthrow of the Qing Dynasty established the Republic of China (ROC).” The ROC is Taiwan’s official national name. Criticizing President Tsai Ing-wen’s National Day speech that said the ROC’s history on Taiwan began in 1949 when the KMT retreated from China to the island, Chiu said Taiwan had been part of the ROC since 1945 when Japan surrendered the island. [Taipei Times]

Illustrating the “four safeguards”, Chu said the KMT would “safeguard the Constitution; safeguard the democracy and freedom that comprised the nation’s founding spirit; safeguard the safety, peace and prosperity of the 23 million Taiwanese; and safeguard the ROC’s dignity and its history.” Chu’s “four safeguards” comes on the heel of President Tsai’s “four commitments” in the National Day speech: commitment to a free and democratic constitutional system, commitment that the ROC and PRC should not be subordinate to each other, commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon sovereignty, and commitment that Taiwan’s future must be decided in line with the will of the Taiwanese will. [see AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]

Meanwhile, a recent poll shows the majority of Taiwanese people support Tsai’s cross-strait stance in the National Speech, with 67.9 percent of the respondents expressing support for the “four commitments”. [Focus Taiwan]

Mongolia, Azerbaijan sign agreement on trade and economic cooperation

(dql) Mongolia and Azerbaijan concluded an agreement on trade and economic cooperation on October 21. The agreement aims at improving the legal framework for bilateral economic cooperation and expanding ties in various economic sectors, as well as exploring additional opportunities for cooperation. [Azernews]

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Khan on official visit in Saudi Arabia

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan commenced a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia on October 23, signaling an improvement in bilateral relations between Riyadh and Islamabad. [Arab News 1]

Following his arrival, Prime Minister Khan addressed the inaugural summit of the Middle East Green Initiative (GMI), which was hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Arabia aims to secure $10.4 billion for an investment fund and clean energy project as part of efforts to reduce regional carbon emissions. [Arab News 2] [Green Middle East Initiative]

During a previous visit by Khan to the Kingdom in May, both sides had signed several agreements. That visit was preceded by a two-day visit by Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javad Bajwa to Saudi Arabia. [AiR No. 19, May/2021, 2].

Following on these visits, this latest trip comes as the two nations continue work on repairing their ties, which were strained in 2019, after Pakistan tried to pressure Saudi Arabia to counter India on Kashmir. In response, Saudi Arabia recalled a $3.4 billion loan and punished Pakistanis working abroad. Pakistan then tried to improve its standing with the Kingdom, as Riyad signaled that it wanted “good relations” its traditional archrival Iran [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1].

Rebuilding this relationship is key for Pakistan, as Saudi Arabia is their largest source of petroleum and provides millions in financial assistance each year. [AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4]

Sri Lanka faces international pressure to end violence, discrimination against Muslim minority community

(egm/lm) Two reports about religious freedom violation in Sri Lanka demonstrate growing concern about human rights and interfaith relations on the Buddhist-majority nation. The largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization in the United States and a US government commission both painted an increasingly problematic scene, characterized by religious lines with ethnic overlays.

On October 20, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) urged the Biden administration and the US Congress to probe reports of discrimination and attacks against Muslims in Sri Lanka. The petition followed a report published by international rights watchdog Amnesty International a week earlier. That report documented incidents where Muslims have been targeted, attacked and discriminated against, by various Sri Lankan state and non-state actors. [Amnesty International] [CAIR]

Moreover, CAIR expressed its support for a call by Amnesty International for Sri Lanka’s government to end the increasing state and communal violence – in addition to discriminatory state policies – against the island’s Muslim minority. In late September, a group of Muslim MPs expressed their disapproval over the government’s intervention in Muslim religious affairs and the current administration’s failure to suppress the spread of hate speech propagated by Buddhist monks against the Muslim minority [see AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1].

Concerns about Muslim religious freedoms were echoed a few days later by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an independent US government advisory body separate from the State Department that makes recommendations on US policy relating to religious freedom promotion. Observers consider the fact that USCIRF chose to report on Colombo for the first time in six years as a clear indication of growing concern about the island nation’s trajectory. [The Diplomat]

USCIRF’s report, “Religious Freedom Conditions in Sri Lanka,” warned about the use of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to target Muslims and jail them for lengthy periods on trumped-up charges. It also noted how the “Sri Lankan government has proposed several measures that target the Muslim community and would restrict Islamic religious practices,” such as a ban on burqas and the closure of Islamic schools. USCIRF also highlighted Sri Lanka’s use of criminal blasphemy laws against minorities and free thinkers. [USCIRF]

Further controversies include the petition made by the minister of public security of Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka to ban burqas on national security grounds [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. The proposed ban, alongside the call to shut down several Islamic schools, first floated in March sparked immediate opposition which resulted in the government refraining from deciding.

On a similar note back in February, the government was also pressured into suspending its policy of forced cremation of COVID-19 victims despite Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka’s claims that burials following the Islamic tradition posed a public health risk [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. The decision was made as the United Nations and the United States as well as various human and religious rights groups and local Muslim associations objected to the policy, deeming it unscientific and insensitive of Muslim religious beliefs.

India signs deal with Dubai to develop infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir union territory

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Modi’s government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Emirate of Dubai – one of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s seven emirates – to ramp up infrastructure development in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory.

The agreement will see Dubai building infrastructure in the Himalayan region, including industrial parks, IT towers, multi-purpose towers, logistics centers, a medical college and a specialized hospital. No figure for the value of the accord was given. [The News International]

Still, the agreement assumes added significance, because it is the first by a foreign government involving the union territory since India’s Hindu-nationalist government broke the state of Kashmir into two union territories directly ruled from New Delhi. [AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1].

The deal comes amid an uptick in violence in the heavily militarized region — as evidenced by a spate of militant attacks on civilians and a widespread crackdown by security forces that has left several people dead. [see entry in this edition]

Thus, analysts say the investment agreement is a clear message that economic development and building peace go hand in hand, even in the middle of heightened security concerns. Others believe the new pact with Dubai is an attempt by New Delhi to gain international legitimacy for its actions in Kashmir over the past two years. [Deutsche Welle]

The UAE is a strategic partner to India and the two countries have a strong bilateral relationship based on common geopolitical and economic interests.

In August, the navies of both sides carried out a maritime exercise off the coast of Abu Dhabi [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3], months after reports had claimed that the UAE had brokered secret talks between India and Pakistan, which resulted in a four-step “roadmap for peace” between the two South Asian neighbors [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].

In addition, both sides are set to start talks on an economic pact, aimed at boosting business, investment and jobs, as they seek to more than double non-oil trade to at least $100 billion over five years. India and the UAE hope to sign formal agreements in early 2022.

‘There are issues‘ along the border with China, report by Nepalese study panel claims

(ns/lm) In a recent report, a Nepalese study panel formed to investigate alleged encroachment by China on territory along the Himalayan border between the two nations claims that Beijing has violated border rules by putting up fences and wires in a district which falls under Nepal's territory, among others.

In September, the administration of Nepalese Prime Minister Deuba had formed a fact-finding committee to study boundary issues along the country’s border with China, especially in the district of Humla. The panel – led by a joint-secretary of the Ministry of Home Affairs – submitted its report later the same month after a series of on-field studies.

In the report, the study panel makes a dozen recommendations and identifies a host of issues along the Nepal-China border in Humla district. [The Hitavada] [The Kathmandu Post]

For a start, the report states that pillar 6 (1) has been covered with wire and fenced by the Chinese side, which also “attempted to show its presence“ between pillars 5 (2) and 6 (1). According to the 1963 Boundary Protocol both pillars are in an area belonging to Nepal, therefore it has been proposed by the panel for the obstructions to be removed. Additionally, it appears that pillar 7 (2) on the Chinese territory could not be found.

Moreover, a breach of the protocol was allegedly committed by the Chinese side, firstly, when attempting to lay the foundations for a permanent canal 145 meters into Nepalese territory. And secondly, by placing fences near border pillar 10 exactly 32 meters away from their common pillar 9 (2).

The report further states that Nepali citizens have been unable to access regions between pillars 4 and 5 (2) with their cattle. Local Nepalese are also heavily dependent on the Tibetan markets on the other side and is therefore problematic for them to raise the border issue or protect the area as such.

Previously, an inspection team that had visited the region in September of last year confirmed the claims, finding nine concrete structures about one kilometer inside the Nepalese territory northwest in the Humla district. However, despite the found evidence, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs then said that the above-mentioned buildings were already assessed as at least one kilometer within the Chinese territory on the Nepal-China border by an inter-ministerial team in 2016. [AiR No.37, September/2021, 2, AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]

According to Nepalese government officials, the China and Nepal are currently working to conduct a meeting for joint inspection of the border. The issue also featured in a phone conversation between Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on October 19. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

Sri Lankan opposition leader reaches out for China’s assistance to manage debt crisis

(egm) Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa and Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Qi Zhenhong met on October 22 at the Opposition Leader’s Office in Colombo to request China’s assistance in managing Sri Lanka’s current debt crisis. [ColomboPage]

Both men also discussed the importance of enhancing bilateral relations and mutual cooperation between the two countries to ensure Sri Lanka’s sovereignty. 

Sri Lanka’s foreign debt crisis follows the severe economic struggles generated by the pandemic which decreased the nation’s exports, tourism earnings and foreign remittances. Earlier in August, the island nation signed a $308 million loan agreement with China as part of the $1.2 billion bailout which Sri Lanka sought to combat the strain produced by the coronavirus pandemic on its economy [see AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4].

In July this year, Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating was placed under review by Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) ratings for a downgrade due to falling foreign exchange reserves [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]. The review followed previous concerns stipulated by several rating agencies throughout 2021 regarding Colombo’s ability to fulfill its foreign debt repayment.

BIMSTEC to get charter with connectivity in focus, general secretary says

24 yours after being established, the seven-member Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is expected to get a charter with key focus on security and connectivity “very soon”, the grouping’s general-secretary said on October 25. [New Age]

The BIMSTEC members-states – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka from South Asia, and Southeast Asian nations Myanmar and Thailand – have held several summits, the last of which took place in 2018 in Kathmandu. The 5th summit is expected be held in the Sri Lankan capital Colombo later this year.

According to the BIMSTEC general-secretary, the summit will also adopt the BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity, which was finalized by an expert group under India’s chairmanship last year, and seeks to create a seamless multimodal transport system across the region.

Against this backdrop, New Delhi has called on the other BIMSTEC countries to collectively develop a strategy for financing and implementing the $126-billion master plan, which comprises of 267 projects with a combined worth of $124 billion. [The Hindu Business Line]

Given that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is stuck because Pakistan and India are at loggerheads over diplomatic recognition of the Afghan Taliban [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4], there is a good case to believe that New Delhi is seeking to boost BIMSTEC in a bid to energize trade and connectivity projects in South Asia. In this regard, it is noteworthy that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had invited the leaders of BIMSTEC countries to his swearing in ceremony in 2019 – a stark contrast to 2014 when he had invited the leaders of SAARC member-states. [Mint]

Sri Lanka enters credit facility deal with Oman to purchase fuel amidst foreign exchange crisis

(egm) Sri Lanka has agreed to sign a $3.6 billion credit facility deal with the Sultanate of Oman to purchase fuel as global prices increase. According to Energy Minister Udaya Gammanpila, the agreement – to be signed next week– will allow Colombo to settle the credit facility loan over a period of 20 years with a five-year grace period. [DailyMirror]

Earlier in April, the former State Minister of Finance, Capital Market and State Enterprise Reforms, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, visited the Sultanate of Oman to discuss the enhancement of bilateral relations between both countries, especially in the areas of mutual economic cooperation [see AiR No. 15, April/2021, 2]. But more recently, Colombo rejected the Sultanate's request for the granting of an area to search for oil instead of receiving interest payments on the credit line.

With regards to the potential fuel price revision, Minister Gammanpila revealed that the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) – Sri Lanka’s national oil and gas company – is currently experiencing a loss of $0,47 for a liter of diesel and $0,24 for a liter of petrol. What is more, the current availability of fuel in the country can only be guaranteed until January 2022, according to government officials. [The Economic Times]

To purchase fuel in the midst of its foreign exchange crisis – which has escalated due to diminishing tourism since the pandemic and the lockdown that followed [see also AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3] – Sri Lanka has also sought a $500 million loan from India under the India-Sri Lanka economic partnership arrangement.

The state-run CPC currently owes nearly $3.3 billion to the government’s Bank of Ceylon and People's Bank as the high increase in global oil prices have driven Sri Lanka to spend more on oil imports this year.

India establishes airspace control center, deploys rocket artillery system in forward position at LAC

(lm) India is growing its military presence along its disputed Himalayan border with China, as border talks remain stalled.

In the northeastern Indian Arunachal Pradesh state, which China claims as part of the region of Southern Tibet, the Army built an airspace control center – the first of its kind in the border region. [South China Morning Post] [The Economic Times]

Moreover, the Indian Army deployed two multiple rocket launcher systems – Pinaka and Smerch – at forward positions near the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan heights of Ladakh, as China and India are looking to continue troop deployment for a second consecutive winter in freezing temperatures. [South Asia Monitor] [Swarajya, $]

In their latest round of talks aimed at easing the 18-month military standoff along the LAC earlier this month, China accused India of making unreasonable demands [see AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]. In the lead-up to the latest round of talks, India’s Chief of the Army Staff, General MM Naravane, said China had been ramping up military presence and infrastructure development along the LAC [see AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1].

Bangladesh to receive $700 soft loan from South Korea

(lm) South Korea will provide a $700 million soft loan to Bangladesh for the next five years to help implement the country's development projects, especially in the areas of sustainable economic recovery, transportation, and health services. To this end, the government of both sides signed a "Framework Arrangement" on October 24. [The Daily Star]

According to the arrangement, candidate projects will be identified for financing in close consultation between both sides. The repayment tenure for the loans will be 40 years, including a 15-year grace period, with an annual interest rate between 0.01 per cent and 0.05 per cent.

So far, South Korea has funded 24 development projects in Bangladesh involving a total of about $1.2 billion through the fund. Of these, 15 have already been completed, while the rest is ongoing.

ASEAN summit without Myanmar; Malaysian appealing to rethink non-interference policy

(tl/dql) The government of all but one ASEAN member states have begun their annual summit in the absence of Myanmar in Brunei. Myanmar´s military government refused to send a representative to the three-day meeting in protest over the exclusion of Myanmar´s government leader and commander-in-chief General Min Aung Hlaing, which marks an unprecedented move for ASEAN given its commitment to strict non-interference.

The move to exclude the leader of Myanmar’s junta from a regional summit, over a lack of progress on a peace plan Myanmar agreed to with ASEAN in April led to Myanmar’s junta commenting the decision would undermine the unity of the member states.  

Even Thai government leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who initially came to power by a coup himself before he was elected in 2019, noted ASEAN’s dealings with Myanmar were crucial for ASEAN´s reputation and a test of its resolve in the eyes of the international community”. [Aljazeera]

Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah went a step farther declaring that ASEAN should rethink its long-decades policy of non-interference given the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar, saying “the bloc cannot use the principle of non-interference as a shield to avoid issues being addressed”.

The more than 1,000 civilians killed since the start of the anti-coup demonstrations in Myanmar were, according to the Malaysian Foreign Minister, a sign of how ASEAN's influence has not worked and that the bloc needs a change of pace. [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2]

Myanmar: US to meet NUG, new special envoy on Myanmar appointed 

(nd) On October 25, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met representatives of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) virtually. The US reiterated its support for the pro-democracy movement and the parties debated ways to restore democracy in Myanmar.

Before the meeting, outgoing United Nations special envoy on Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, said to formally recognize the junta as Myanmar’s government would not end the violence. She added “Myanmar is rapidly moving towards the abyss”, referring to the devastating economic situation, the ongoing violence and the stronger growing opposition of the junta and NUG with respect to political representation and military force, given the rising numbers among the NUG’s People’s Defense Force.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of Singaporean Noeleen Heyzer as his new special envoy on Myanmar. Heyzer is a former UN official and has worked closely with ASEAN and Myanmar after the Cyclone Nargis devasted the country and killed more than 140,000 people in May 2008, and a special adviser for Timor-Leste from 2013 to 2015, involved in peace-building, state-building and sustainable development. 

Despite growing international and economic pressure, the junta has so far ignored calls to reverse the February 1 coup and return power to the elected National League for Democracy (NLD). [Reuters] [Voice of America]

Malaysia expects more Chinese boats in South China Sea

(tl) Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the country should expect more intrusions by China into its territorial waters as long as the state-owned oil and gas company continues its work on a field in the South China Sea. 

Petronas, a state-owned oil and gas company, is working on the Kasawari gas field, 200km from Sarawak, in Malaysia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to studies, the field is expected to contain about 3 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas resources and, when completed, which is scheduled for 2023, should be able to produce up to 900 million cubic feet of gas per day. As stated by the company's CEO, the project will allow Petronas to remain one of the five largest producers of liquefied natural gas in the world. 

According to Saifuddin, the Kasawari project would attract Chinese Coast Guard boats off the coast of Sabah and Sarawak, particularly in the shallows of South Luconia. The minister also reported that although Beijing has ignored the many protests raised, Malaysia will continue to respond to such offenses with diplomacy, being adamant that the dispute in the South China Sea can be resolved through international law. He added that he told the CEO of Petronas that the company had every right to continue drilling as the Kasawari project was "in our waters and we are a sovereign country."

China had already protested the company's activities in the field back in July and announced to continue to increase its surveillance in the area. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

According to sources close to the government, the continued intrusions by Chinese vessels highlight Beijing's intention to put pressure on the Malaysian government and Petronas to stop the work and cancel the project. 

Malaysia claims waters within the South China Sea that extend for 200km off its coast. In addition to this, the government also claims 12 islands in the Spratlys archipelago, of which it now occupies 5. For its part, China rejects these claims and instead claims over 85% of the waters in the South China Sea, citing historical rights over the area.

Despite its stance on the issue of water control, Kuala Lumpur tries to maintain a soft approach towards Beijing. In fact, China is both the main investor within the country and its largest trading partner, with investments amounting to 4.41 billion in 2020 and trade accounting for 18.6% of the total. Given the economic repercussions of Covid-19, Saiffudin said it would be "necessary to resume good diplomatic relations with Beijing as soon as possible".[South China Morning Post]

The Philippines: Philippines decries Chinese provocations in South China Sea

(lt) The Philippines has denounced “provocative acts” performed by China in the South China Seain in a diplomatic protest in response to Chinese vessels challenging Philippine vessels in the region, with the latter experiencing horns, sirens and disruption to radio communications due to Chinese aggression. This comes amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, with the Philippines already filing more than 80 diplomatic protests against China. [Nikkei Asia]

Indonesia: Cautious stance in face of lingering Chinese vessel in Indonesian waters

(ms) Indonesia is continuing to pursue a cautious approach to the presence of a large Chinese survey vessel in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the North Natuna Sea. The vessel, the Hauyand Dizhi 10, originally entered Indonesia’s waters near an important oil and gas field on August 31. After leaving for a few days to re-supply in late September, it returned to the location in early October, where it has remained since. 

Analysts say the Chinese vessel’s movement in a grid pattern shows that it has been carrying out unlawful research activity surveying the seafloor. Jakarta, however, has brushed aside concerns, insisting the vessel has committed no violations and that all foreign ships are allowed to pass through the Natuna Sea. [Benar News 1] [See also AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1] [See also AiR No. 43, October/2021, 2]

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) requires governments to seek permission in advance for marine scientific research in another state’s EEZ. China often ignores this requirement, claiming the major part of the South China Sea, in doing so pitting itself against several of its neighbors who dispute these claims. Although Indonesia does not consider itself as part of the South China Sea dispute, Beijing does claim historic rights to overlapping areas in Indonesia’s EEZ. Indonesia, however, is careful about how it responds to China’s assertiveness, preferring to maintaining friendly relations and taking a quiet diplomatic approach. [Benar News 2]

Some other countries in the region who lay claim to the South China Sea, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, have preferred to take a similar approach to China’s assertiveness in the past. Recently, however, Malaysia publicly protested against the operation of a Chinese vessel in its EZZ even summoning the Chinese ambassador. [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3] Similar, the Philippines has issued a diplomatic protest over Chinese vessels that were challenging its ships patrolling the South China Sea. Both diplomatic moves can be seen as signalling the countries’ growing impatience about the increasingly challenging Chinese actvities. [Benar News 3] [Reuters] 

Indonesia, US to call for pandemic-related international response system

(nd) In a joint statement, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati called on the G20 group to create a forum to prepare for future pandemics. Referring to this month’s forum of health and finance ministers at the G20 summit in Rome, the statement urged to use this momentum to develop an international response system.

The statement reads that the pandemic exposed a lack of readiness and limited international coordination, highlighting the necessity of a global mechanism for detection, prevention and information sharing. Especially with respect to poorer countries, the statement urges more inclusiveness and less bureaucracy. 

In their respective regions, the US and Indonesia with similar sized populations have been among the worst affected. COVID-19 has killed 5.2 million people and infected 244 million globally, according to Reuters data. [Reuters]

Indonesia: U.K. propaganda contributed to 1965-66 mass killings, declassified documents show

(ms) A U.K. propaganda campaign in Indonesia in the mid-1960’s helped to overthrow President Sukarno and contributed to the ensuing mass killings of 1965-66, recently declassified documents from the U.K. Foreign Office have revealed. The documents are a series of pamphlets written by British propagandists, feigning as Indonesian patriots, inciting the elimination of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI). They reveal how the U.K. urged prominent Indonesian anti-communists, including senior army commanders, to launch the campaign of mass murder, which ultimately resulted in the deaths of at least 500,000 people linked to the PKI and as many as one million people overall. [The Diplomat] [The Guardian]

According to the declassified documents, the British propaganda campaign was launched in 1963 in response to Sukarno’s “Konfrontasi”, or Confrontation. Konfrontasi encompassed low-level military incursions into East Malaysia, resulting from Indonesia’s opposition to the creation of the Federation of Malaysia. The Federation, which united independent Malaya with the British colonies of Singapore, Sarawak, and British North Borneo, was seen by Indonesia, including the PKI, as a plot by the British to maintain their colonial dominance over Southeast Asia. To help the emergent Malaysia defend against the Konfrontasi incursions, the British provided a huge military presence and intelligence resources. [The Guardian]

Yet, the UK’s objectives transcended just this conflict. The documents reveal how British subversive actions were ultimately influenced by Cold War calculations with the British fearing, along with its US and Australian allies, the emergence of a communist Indonesia. By 1965, Sukarno increasingly moved his policy objectives to the left both in foreign and domestic matters, after having already adopted a stance of non-aligned nationalism and anti-colonialism in the context of the 1955 Bandung Conference, while Indonesia grew deeper ties with communist China. This resulted in the British viewing Indonesia as a general threat that could be lessened if its leadership was overthrown and the influence of the PKI diminished. [The Guardian]

To this end, the British looked towards staunchly anti-communist elements including especially in the Indonesian army as addressees of a subversive propaganda campaign that is now alleged to have contributed to the so-called Gestapu-Coup with the Indonesian army taking power, moving to destroy the PKI and starting a mass murder campaign following a mysterious bloody coup attempt by dissident army officers with communist leanings on the night of September 30, 1965. General Suharto who quashed the coup managed to use it to also take over power from Sukarno. Suharto’s New Order military dictatorship would go on to govern Indonesia until 1998. [The Guardian]

Indonesia: Top diplomats join Malaysia in cautious skepticism about AUKUS

(ms) Top Indonesian and Malaysian diplomats have reiterated some concerns about Australia’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, following bilateral talks in Jakarta on October 18. The diplomats have warned of a potential regional arms race in reaction to the so-called AUKUS pact, in which the United Kingdom and United States agreed to provide Australia with the technology to build the eight submarines. They also see some risk that the pact could draw other powers into the South China Sea dispute. Instead, they have stressed strong military cooperation among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members as the means to ensure greater security in Southeast Asia. [Benar News]

ASEAN members are, however, not unified in their response to AUKUS. Singapore and the Philippines have expressed less concern over the pact, hoping it might restore a regional imbalance and contribute to regional stability. Other ASEAN members have remained silent on the matter. [East Asia Forum]

Indonesia and Vietnam seek to cement ties in defense policy dialogue

(ms) Indonesia and Vietnam held the second iteration of their defense policy dialogue on October 14 including developments on their national defense white papers, the South China Sea issue, and their cooperation in multilateral fora. The two countries also addressed future issues to be prioritized in their defense relations, including technical cooperation between their coast guards, the development of military medicine amid the continued challenge of COVID-19, and other training exercises and high-level delegation exchanges. [The Diplomat]

Since reaching the initial memorandum of understanding in 2010, both countries have developed their defense ties, including coast guard collaboration and a coordination mechanism for protecting fishing vessels in the wake of maritime infringement. After years of consideration, and a series of professional and diplomatic exchanges, the first iteration of the biannual Indonesia-Vietnam Defense Policy Dialogue was held in Vietnam in 2019.

Despite the countries´ efforts, however, the management of ongoing infringements of fishermen into foreign waters continues to be a problematic issue. Just last month, for example, 200 Vietnamese fishermen were finally repatriated from Indonesia after spending months in a detention center on charges of poaching in Indonesian waters. [See AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1]

Indonesia: Government prepares carbon-trading regulation, anticipates completion of international rules at COP26

(ms) As part of its commitment to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow next week, the Indonesian government is preparing a domestic carbon trading regulation. It hopes to have the regulation passed before the summit. [The Jakarta Post]

Indonesia also aims to build an international consensus on climate financing after 2025. So far, developed countries have pledged to collectively mobilize by 2025 US$100 billion per year for climate action. In 2019, they channeled around $80 billion towards this effort, up by 2 percent from 2018. 

President Joko Widodo will personally attend COP26 to announce Indonesia’s target of net zero emissions by 2060, present blue carbon as a solution for reducing emissions, and to encourage the role of developing archipelagic and small island countries. [See AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3] Indonesia has also updated its Nationally Determined Contributions ahead of the summit, aiming to reduce its carbon emissions by 29 percent independently and by 41 percent with international assistance by 2030.

Laos, Japan affirming strategic economic partnership

(bs) The Lao Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Embassy of Japan meet under the theme ′′ The Japan-Mekong Business Exchange in the Digital Era ‘′ to celebrate the Japan-Mekong Year 2021 to promote Japan-Laos-Mekong region economic relationships and effective multilateral cooperation. [Lao National Radio in Lao]

Laos, Uganda to establish Ugandan Embassy 

(bs) The Republic of Uganda and the Lao PDR concluded an agreement on the establishment of the Ugandan Embassy in the Lao capital. [Lao National Radio in Lao]

US blocks imports by Malaysian glove maker on forced labor concerns

(tl) The United States blocked imports by a Malaysian glove maker citing evidence of forced labor in the company’s manufacturing operations. According to a statement following research conducted by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Supermax Corp, the second largest latex glove maker in the country, has violated standards on working conditions of its employees. 

According to CBP, the company violated 10 of the 11 forced labor indicators of the International Labor Organization (ILO), including restriction of movement, physical and sexual violence, intimidation, retention of documents, withholding of wages, abusive work and living conditions and excessive overtime. [International Labour Standards]

In light of Malaysia’s recent joining of a United Nations body responsible for promoting human rights globally, labor rights activist underlined the necessity for the International Community to pressure the Malaysian government to enforce workers' rights in private companies.

In June this year, CBP announced to investigate the company for alleged forced labor. [AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]Supermax’s CEO said the company will accelerate the process started in 2019 to meet all the ILO standards. He added that until the US restores imports, which account for the 20% of the total sales, the company will be forced to turn to other markets. 

Malaysia is the world leader of rubber-glove manufacturing, which accounts for about 65 percent of the world’s production. It is heavily dependent on migrant labor, mostly from Bangladesh and Nepal. Supermax is not the first Malaysian manufacturer to face US sanctions over working conditions. In July 2020, CBP announced to blcok products made by Top Glove, the world’s largest glove maker, because of evidence it engaged in forced labor. [BenarNews] [Reuters]

The Philippines - Saudi Arabian to discuss potential ban of migrant Filipino workers to Saudi Arabia

(lt) The Philippines´ and Saudi Arabian ministers for labor affairs will soon discuss a potential ban on the deployment of migrant Filipino workers to Saudi Arabia.

The threat of a deployment ban comes after Saudi Arabian authorities have failed to pay salaries and end-of-services pay to over 9,000 overseas Filipino workers. Manila has noted the government’s expenditure of more than 3 billion pesos on repatriating abused Filipino workers from Saudi Arabia. [ABS-CBN News]

US, Thailand consider using Thai-Myanmar border to supply humanitarian aid

(kk) US and Thailand are considering to jointly provide humanitarian aid to Myanmar via Thailand´s border with Thailand. The plan was discussed during a two-day visit to Bangkok by US State Department Counselor Derek Chollet, meeting the Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai and other senior officials.

The military coup in Myanmar in February this year has led to a humanitarian crisis including the forcibly displacement of more than 230,000 civilians during the military´s attempts to suppress resistance. Moreover, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said three million people are in urgent need of assistance and protection due to conflict, food insecurity, natural disasters and COVID-19, tripling from 1 million people before the coup. Although UN continues to provide aid within the country, many bilateral donors are reluctant to supply aid through channels controlled by the military junta. [The Diplomat]

Moreover, Myanmar´s junta has posed increasingly strict restrictions blocking aid to certain areas and having created a host of “bureaucratic impediments” including travel authorizations and visa delays. 

Meanwhile, a member of a Thai NGO that works on the Thai-Myanmar border said that she did not believe the Thai government would be of much help in terms of humanitarian aid, given its actions towards Myanmar migrants earlier this year noting that Thailand has already deported more than 2,000 ethnic Karen refugees who fled into the country from military air strikes in Myanmar.

This assessment notwithstanding, the Thai Foreign Minister said he has met with local and international stakeholders, all of whom said they were ready to cooperate and coordinate humanitarian assistance for Myanmar. [BenarNews] [The Diplomat]

Vietnam, Canada partnership in clean energy development

(bs) The Vietnamese Embassy in Canada held a workshop on Vietnam-Quebec cooperation opportunities in the development of clean and renewable energy against the backdrop of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). [Nhan Dan] 

Vietnam, Russia to expand bilateral cooperation in education, training

(bs) The Vietnamese Ambassador to Russia and Russian Minister of Science and Higher Education met in Moscow to discuss the next steps on strengthening Russia-Vietnam bilateral partnership in education and training with the Vietnamese side appreciating the Russian Government’s action to raise the number of scholarships for Vietnamese students. The two countries agreed on signing a renovated cooperation agreement in substitution of the 2005 one, in conjunction with the plans of two meetings in the field of education-training and further development of the teaching of the Russian language in Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam. [Nhan Dan]

Vietnam, Cambodia to discuss bilateral ties 

(bs) On October 21, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Secretary of State of the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation held the seventh Vietnam-Cambodia political consultation on issues such as economic recovery post-COVID-19, strengthening national defense-security cooperation, implementing efficient border management, and expanding the collaboration in education, IT and communication, and culture and sports.

The consultation also marked the occasion to begin the works on “the smooth relocation and resettlement of Cambodians of Vietnamese origin in the Tonle Sap region.” [Nhan Dan] 

Vietnam: Construction and landfills on disputed reef in the South China Sea

(bs) Vietnam is allegedly working on construction and landfilling on a remote reef in the South China Sea. 

The Vietnamese government claimed that the country “has modestly expanded” many areas it occupies in the South China Sea. Vietnam occupies the island since 1978, although China, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia continue the dispute over the ownership of the area. 

Vietnam also affirmed that the country has been operating on the island to prevent erosion and landslides for environment conservation reasons in compliance with the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and the agreements with China and other ASEAN countries. [Radio Free Asia]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

27 October 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Wilson Center, USA

China's Leaders: From Mao to Now

This online book talk will introduce David Shambaugh’s recently published “China's Leaders: From Mao to Now” which depicts the People’s Republic of China development over the past seven decades through the prism of its top leaders: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping.

[If you are interested in the event, find more information at [Wilson Center].

27 October 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

A new Bhashan Char agreement: What now for the Rohingya in Bangladesh?

In this online conversation Ambassador M. Shahidul Islam of Bangladesh to the United States will shed light on the recent Bangladesh-UN agreement for humanitarian support at Bhashan Char, as well as how the United Nations and the international community more generally can support Rohingya human rights as well as Bangladesh’s capacity to provide for the refugees.

Further information is accessible via [Atlantic Council].

27 October 2021 @ 12:45 p.m. (GMT-4), Brookings, USA

Aligning technology governance with democratic values

In the light of technology policy having become a defining issue of global politics, this webinar will address the challenges to developing technologies that can strengthen democratic societies around the world.

Visit [Brookings] for more information.

27 October 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Thailand and the Myanmar Crisis

This webinar will analyze and discuss Thailand’s posture vis-à-vis the ongoing political crisis  in Myanmar which remains central to any ASEAN resolution of that crisis. 

More event details are provided at [ISEAS].

27 October 2021 @ 5:30 p.m. (GMT+11), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Russia-China: The New Era Alliance, its Ambitions and its Limits

The relationship between Russia and China might be described as one of strategic convergence. Both sides oppose the US and its allies in key areas geographically and sectorally, and work together to restructure the current international order. This webinar will discuss the growing significance of the Sino-Russian relationship, its future and challenges.

See [AIIA] for more event details.

28 October 2021 @ 6:00-8:00 p.m. (GMT+11), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Hong Kong’s “Real Return”: the decimation of one country, two systems

This online talk will offer an explanation for Beijing’s shift from a relatively liberal policy towards a vehement existential assault on democratic institutions, civil society and rule of law in Hong Kong – hailed by mainland patriots as the achievement of the “real return” of Hong Kong. 

Further information is provided at [AIIA].

28 October 2021 @ 8:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA

Addressing China’s Influence in South Asia

Against the backdrop of China’s expanded engagement in South Asia going significantly beyond commercial and development projects to encompass political and security interests, this webinar will explore how regional governments in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka can learn from shared experience to discourage unproductive Chinese actions and influences, and foster the kind of engagement that is in their interest.

For more information, visit [Carnegie Endowment].

28 October 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

Deepening economic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific

This webinar will discuss the key areas where the US and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific can deepen economic partnerships with Taiwan. 

For further event details, see [Atlantic Council].

28 October 2021 @ 11:30 a.m. -1:00 p.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA

Democracy Promotion in US Foreign Policy

US response to the 9/11 attacks included an emphasis on peace building through democracy promotion. The online talk will explore the rationale and milestones for American engagement in distant lands. How will such an approach work in future foreign policy implementation is among those questions also discussed at this event. 

More details are provided at [FSI].

29 October 2021 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Wilson Center, USA

Australia, China, and the Indo-Pacific: A Discussion with Tony Abbott, 28th Prime Minister of Australia

In this online conversation, former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot whose recent speech in Taiwan raised hackles in Beijing, will speak about prospects for the Quad, AUKUS, and the construction of a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

Visit [Wilson Center] to find further information.

29 October 2021 @ 10:00-11:30 a.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA

Tunisia: Political Conflict after July 25

This online panel discussion will ill examine the evolving political conflicts in Tunisia since the July 25 power grab executed by President Kais Saied that has been widely viewed as a step toward cementing authoritarian rule. The panelists will also discuss the challenges recent developments have posed to Tunisia’s struggling democracy and the prospects for building consensus around an inclusive process of political reform.

If you are interested in joining the event, visit [FSI] for more details.

29 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

Unlocking Uzbekistan’s potential

Against the backdrop of the presidential elections in Uzbekistan on 24 October 2021, this webinar will analyze the election results and address the question whether Uzbekistan will continue to make reforms. It will also discuss whether a renewed US focus on Central Asia bring new energy to constructive partnerships?

See [Atlantic Council] for more details.

29 October 2021 @ 9:30-11:30 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Building Back Better in Post-Pandemic Southeast Asia

Part of this year’s Singapore International Energy Week think tank roundtables, this online panel discussions will explore Southeast Asia’s green recovery efforts in the energy sector, and how those efforts can be bolder, and more socially just.

For more details, visit [ISEAS].

2 November 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+11), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

AUKUS – So What?: Reconciling Australia's Geography with its History, its Fear of Abandonment and Fear of Entrapment

Against the backdrop of the recent AUKUS pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, this online presentation will explore Australia’s place in the world.

If you are interested in the event, find more information at [AIIA].

2 November 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Institute for Security Studies Africa, South Africa

Are current solutions to Africa’s border disputes working?

This webinar is organized against the backdrop of the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) recent ruling on the Kenya-Somalia maritime dispute which has raised questions about whether the court’s judgements alone can resolve conflicts over borders and transboundary resources in Africa. Are other means such as negotiation and diplomacy more effective? 

For more information, see [ISS Africa].

2 November 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. (GMT-4), Rand Corporation, USA

The Growing Role of Europe in Asia: Connecting the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific

European nations have upgraded their strategic policy focus on and have been deepening defense cooperation with regional partners in the Indo-Pacific region, while at the same time Tokyo has strengthened its efforts to expand its own engagement with European partners on security affairs. What factors are driving France, Germany and the UK to reach out to Japan? Why is Japan reciprocating, and with what goals? Where are these trends heading? And what are their implications for Europe, Japan, the United States, and the U.S. - Japan alliance? Find answers to these questions at this webinar.

Visit [Rand] to learn more about the event.

2 November 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

The Realities of Humanitarian Assistance for Myanmar

At the online panel discussion, experts will analyze the implications of the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, evaluate responses from regional and international actors, and discuss what constitutes effective humanitarian assistance for communities across Myanmar.

If you are interested in the event, find more information at [ISEAS].

2-3 November 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

Middle East security in a changing world: Building a sustainable regional security system

At this two-day online event, experts and practitioners will offer insights and recommendations on the main security challenges the Middle East region is facing at a time of transformation.

For more information, visit [Atlantic Council].

Recent Book Releases 

Howard W. French, Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World, 1471 to the Second World War, Liveright, 512 pages, published on October 12, 2021, reviewed in [The New York Times].

James Griffiths, Speak Not: Empire, Identity and the Politics of Language, Zed Books, 264 pages, published on October 21, 2021. A review is available at [Asian Review of Books].

Ying-Shih Yü, From Rural China to the Ivy League: Reminiscences of Transformations in Modern Chinese History Hardcover, 360 pages, published on August 26, 2021, briefly introduced in [Asian Review of Books].

Jonathan E Hillman, The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century, Yale University Press, 340 pages, published on September 29, 2020, reviewed in [New York Journal of Books].

Jan-Werner Müller, Democracy Rules, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 256 pages, published on July 6, 2021, discussed in [New York Journal of Books].

Paul Lockhart, Firepower: How Weapons Shaped Warfare Kindle Edition, Basic Books, 666 pages, published on October 19, 2021, reviewed in [New York Journal of Books].

Robert R. King and Gi-Wook Shin (eds.), The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, 250 pages, published on September 7, 2021. To learn more about the book, register for the book’s online launch hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies on October 28, 2021, at [FSI].

Manfred Elfstrom, Workers and Change in China: Resistance, Repression, Responsiveness, Cambridge University Press, 200 pages, published on January 21, 2021, briefly discussed in [New Books Network].  

Calls for Papers

The journal Kunstlicht invites manuscripts for the second issue of volume 43, dedicated to the theme “ALGO-RHYTHMS: LIving in and out of Sync with Technology”. Closing date for submissions is December 21, 2021. For more information, visit [Kunstlicht].

Cultures Conference will be hosting a two-day virtual conference on “Current Trends, Issues and Challenges in Diverse Societies” which is scheduled for May 6-7, 2022, and for which it welcomes paper proposals. Deadline for submission is April 10, 2022. In you are interested, learn more about the call for paper at [Cultures Conference].

Jobs and Positions

World Vision is recruiting a Director, Global Technology & Digital Solutions, LACR. Deadline for applications is November 16, 2021. Visit [World Vision] to learn more about the vacancy.

The Asian Development Bank (ABD) is hiring an Expert Urban Development Specialist. Closing date for applications is November 9, 2021. For more details see [ADB].

Europol is offering the position of a Specialist - EC3 Dark Web. Deadline for applications is November 16, 2021. Visit [Europol] to learn more about the vacancy.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is recruiting a Head of Division - Corporate Applications and Data. Closing date for applications is November 7, 2021. Find more about the vacancy at [EIB].

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