Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 2, February/2022

 

Brought to you by CPG

Supported by KAS

 

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the second issue of Europe Monthly in 2022. 

Among key stories, we bring you an overview of the stand-off between Moscow and the West amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis; the latest on Britain’s scandal-ridden PM as he fights to keep his job; and the background on how Russian gained from helping to quell the unrest in Kazakhstan.

I wish you an interesting read and a good day!

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

 

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

 

Main Sections

  • EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

  • Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

 

EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

 
 

Tensions between Russia and West still rising amid Ukraine crisis  

The US has accused Moscow of bringing Europe to the brink of war and of undermining international security by massing troops at the Ukrainian border, as many Western countries readied military support for Kyiv amid fears that Russia would invade. [Politico]

Meanwhile, Kyiv said that Western predictions of an imminent invasion were premature and only served to sow panic and destabilise Ukraine’s markets. [Bloomberg] [CNN] [Deutsche Welle] 

Russia has accused NATO of escalating tensions as US President Joe Biden reportedly has 8,500 troops on standby ahead of what he predicts couldbe a February invasion by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied such intentions. [TASS] [Politico] [The Guardian] [Global News]

Russia’s ambassador at the United Nations Security Council told NATO: “You’re waiting for it [an invasion] to happen, as if you want your words to come true.” [The Washington Post]

Meanwhile, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned: “This is the largest — this is the largest; hear me clearly — mobilization of troops in Europe in decades.” [Politico] 

The Washington-led UN meeting on 31 January was the latest in a string of talks this month designed to reduce international tensions over Ukraine. But the messages have remained much the same throughout: NATO insists that Moscow pursue diplomatic channels and warns that an invasion of Ukraine would be met with “severe consequences” for Russia. [News Week] [TASS] [Ukrinform] [Reuters][Moscow Times]

However, Putin told his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, on 28 January that the United States and NATO had not addressed Russia’s demands, such as the removal of military forces from eastern NATO states, as well as a guarantee that Ukraine will not be granted membership of the military alliance. But Putin added that Moscow was prepared to continue the conversation over Ukraine. [Politico] [Deutsche Welle] 

Ukraine was targeted by cyber-attacks on 14 January that it blamed on Moscow. Meanwhile, London claimed that the Kremlin was hatching plans to install a pro-Russian puppet leader in Kyiv. [BBC] [CNBC] [New York Times]

The US government reportedly warned that Moscow was preparing to orchestrate a “false flag” attack in Ukraine – sabotaging its own Russian forces as justification for an invasion of Ukraine. [France24]

Ukraine is raking in a mix of both military and financial support from a number of European countries including Britain, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, Norway and the Baltic states. [Ukrinform] [Diário de Notícias] [El País] [AA] [PAP] [Republic World] [Norway Today] [WSJ]

Lithuania’s foreign minister said: “It is in every country’s interest to support Ukraine so it can fight off a possible invasion that would be on the European border.” [CNN]  

But other European countries have trodden more lightly: Sweden and Finland are hovering over a decision to send arms, while Berlin has stymied Estonian attempts to send German-made weapons to Ukraine. France’s Macron has been conducting his own diplomatic dialogue with Putin. [Financial Times] [Ukrinform] [The Telegraph] [Euractiv] [Financial Times] [Deutsche Welle] 

Some observers say Europe is failing to present a united front. American analyst Livia Paggi told Bloomberg: “The US and Europe are not entirely united in their approach to Russia – even EU states among themselves are not united. And this really shows that different stakeholders have different interests.” [Bloomberg] [Al Jazeera]

Some analysts attribute Berlin’s reluctance in offering Ukraine military support to Germany’s dependence on Russian energy. [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera] [Financial Times]

The prime minister of Poland has spoken of a “gas gun placed by Putin against the heads of Ukraine, Poland and many other European countries.” But Austria has voiced concerns over including the blocking of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline among potential invasion sanctions, which Vienna otherwise supports. [Polish News] [Spiegel Ausland]

Washington and the European Commission pledged on 28 January to find alternative energy sources for Europe and Ukraine should the 100,000 Russian troops stationed around Ukraine’s borders be ordered to invade. [Euractiv]  

While in Kyiv there are calls for calm and diplomacy, on the ground in Ukraine, soldiers and battle-ready civilians are prepared should Russia launch a full-scale invasion. [RFERL] [The Independent] [BBC]

Poland has announced that its gates would be open to refugees fleeing a Russian incursion into Ukraine. [The Times]

Speaking on 28 January, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told broadcaster Al Jazeera: “I still believe that the political track provides us with opportunities to find solutions and reassurances.”

Støre added: “It is now up to President Putin to demonstrate that he can be at that table, seeking solutions that can be constructive, not only for him, but also for his neighbours.” [Al Jazeera] 

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US holds talks with energy companies on Russian gas contingency plans

The US government held talks with several international energy companies on contingency plans for supplying natural gas to Europe if conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupts Russian supplies, Reuters reported on 15 January, citing two US officials and two industry sources. [Reuters]

State Department officials approached the companies to ask where additional supplies might come from if they were needed, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources familiar with the discussions. The companies told the officials that global gas supplies were tight and that there was little gas to substitute Russian sources.  [Reuters]

In related news, Senate Democrats on 13 January blocked a GOP-led effort to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 amid deteriorating talks with Moscow over its military build-up along Ukraine’s eastern border. [Politico]

The bill proposed initiating sanctions no later than 15 days after enactment of the law. The Biden administration argued that the bill would remove US leverage to deter Russia and damage ties with Germany and other European allies. [WSJ]

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Germany warns it could halt Nord Stream 2 if Putin sends troops into Ukraine

The German government warned on 18 January that it would consider halting Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacks Ukraine, a policy position shift that is perceived as dispelling uncertainty around its stance on the gas pipeline and potential sanctions on Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued his strongest warning to date about the economic ramifications when asked if Nord Stream 2 was a part of the “severe economic costs” Russia would face if President Vladimir Putin sent troops across the border into Ukraine. [Politico][ECFR]

“It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this will have to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine,” Scholz said during a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. “We expect Russia to de-escalate the situation,” which could include a reduction of troops along the Ukrainian border, he said.  [Politico]

“After days if not weeks and months of uncertainty and mixed signals, he put the messaging around Germany’s Russia policy back on track,” Jana Puglierin, head of the European Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, wrote on 19 January. “Scholz’s new statement should hopefully now bring more coherence to the German debate and reassure partners abroad who had started to see Germany as the West’s weak link.” [ECFR]

Under Scholz’s predecessor Angela Merkel, Germany committed to take action at the national level and press for EU sanctions should Russia “use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine.” Scholz said his government “stands by all aspects” of that agreement that was reached with President Joe Biden.  [Politico]

In December, though, Scholz’s position was different. 

He distinguished the pipeline’s operation from any wider efforts to prevent a violation of Ukrainian borders, describing them as “separate issues.” He said at the time that it was a private sector issue that “has advanced to the point where the pipeline has been laid.”  [ECFR][Clean Energy Wire]

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock echoed Scholz’s comments last month when she travelled to Moscow to meet with her counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. “We have no choice but to defend our common rules, even at a high, sometimes economic price,” she said. If  Russia uses energy as a weapon, there would be  “appropriate consequences with regard to this pipeline,” Baerbock added. [Politico]

“Germany’s willingness to put Nord Stream 2 on the table signals a broader dissatisfaction with Russia,” Nikos Tsafos, James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy and Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on 21 January. “Russia has only itself to blame.” [CSIS]

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Head of German navy resigns after calling fears of Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘nonsense’ 

The head of the German navy resigned on 22 January after saying that Western fears of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine were “nonsense” in remarks that sparked criticism in Ukraine and a swift response from Berlin. 

What Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants is “respect” and “it is easy to give him the respect he really demands – and probably also deserves,” Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach said during a speech in New Delhi on 21 January. “Is Russia really interested in having a tiny strip of Ukraine’s soil? No. Or to integrate it in the country? No, this is nonsense.” [Euronews][BBC][Al Jazeera]

His comments sparked criticism in Kyiv amid fears that the tens of thousands of Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s border could invade – intentions that Russia has denied. The Ukrainian foreign ministry said in a statement that Germany should publicly reject the navy chief’s comments since they could impair Western efforts to de-escalate the situation. [Euronews][BBC][Al Jazeera]

“Ukraine is grateful to Germany for the support it has already provided since 2014, as well as for the diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet. “But Germany’s current statements are disappointing and run counter to that support and effort.” [Al Jazeera]

Schoenbach tried to limit the fallout from his comments initially, but he then submitted his resignation to “avert further damage” to the German navy and German forces. He said his “rash” remarks put a “strain” on his office. Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht accepted Schoenbach’s resignation and appointed his deputy as interim naval chief, the German navy said in a statement.  

After Schoenbach’s resignation, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, declared that this step was not enough. “We welcome the fact that Mr. Schoenbach has offered to resign,” Melnyk told the Welt. “However, the incident put the international credibility and reliability of Germany into question.” [Deutsche Welle]

Germany has warned Russia that it will pay a high cost if it invades and that Berlin is united with its NATO allies on the issue of Russia’s military threat to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder said on 28 January that Baerbock's trip to Kyiv before she went to Moscow could be seen as “provocation” in Russia. Schröder, who is chairman of Nord Stream and long-time friend of Putin, said he hoped “the sabre-rattling from Ukraine will stop.” [Politico]

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Finland and Sweden facing tough strategic questions 

Both, in Finland and Sweden support for a NATO membership is rising. In Finland however, the prime minister said it is "very unlikely" her country will apply to join NATO during her current term of office, even though public support for jumping aboard the military alliance has risen both among Finns and in neighbouring Sweden amid fears that Russia could invade Ukraine. 

Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s comments in a Reuters interview on 19 January sparked criticism from opposition politicians, who said she was playing into the hands of Moscow by ruling out a Finnish application to join NATO in the near future. [Euractiv]

A week earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that traditionally neutral Finland wanted to become part of NATO. Previously, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had warned that Russia would regard Finland joining the Western alliance as "an instrument of confrontation." [Reuters]

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden spoke with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö on 18 January about Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders. Biden stressed the right of Finland and other European countries “to choose their security arrangements.” [Politico]

Helsinki has previously said it reserves the option of applying to join NATO at any time. Russia's massing of troops close to Ukraine has stoked discussion among Finns about whether they should be part of the Western alliance. [Reuters]

Thirty percent of the public in Finland are now in favour of NATO membership, the highest figure since 2005, according to an MTV3 News survey published on 26 January. But backing would rise to 50 percent if the country’s political leaders campaigned for NATO membership, the survey added. [Euractiv]

Marin said: "All in all, I believe the NATO discussion will increase in the coming years." [Reuters] Though Finland is not a member of NATO, it has built tighter links with the alliance in recent years. Last month, the country chose American defence giant Lockheed Martin to supply 64 F-35 fighter jets and weapons systems in a deal that strengthened defence ties with the US.  [EiR Monthly January 2021]

Finland has also approved a deal to replace its Soviet-era sniper rifles. Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen backed the adoption of the new semi-automatic Sniper Rifle 23 and the Designated Marksman Rifle 23 for infantry forces. [Upjobsnews] Both weapons will be provided by the Finnish-based Sako company. [Shephardmedia]

Meanwhile, in Nordic neighbour Sweden, debate on joining NATO has picked up. A survey by pollster Novus for Sweden’s national broadcaster SVT found that 37 percent were in favour of membership, while 35 percent were against, and 28 percent were undecided. In 2017, 32 percent said “yes” to NATO, and 43 percent said “no.” [Euractiv]

Sweden has reported a number of landing craft from Russia’s northern navy entering the Baltic Sea, and has reinforced its military presence on the island of Gotland, which is strategically located in the Baltic and is the part of the country closest to Russia. [Euronews] [AP] 

Swedish Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told radio station Ekot: “It is clear there is a risk. An attack against Sweden cannot be ruled out… Sweden will not be caught napping if something happens.” [Financial Times]

Sweden’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, rebutted Russian assertions that NATO should cap its expansion plans. Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde has previously stressed that her country reserves the right to decide whether it wants to join a military alliance. [Politico] But she added that signing up for NATO membership was currently not on the table. [Politico]

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Left-wing parties in Spain urge exit from NATO

Nine left-wing parties in Spain, including a junior partner in its governing coalition, have urged Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to end his country’s membership of NATO amid tensions sparked by a build-up of Russian forces next to Ukraine.

The nine parties, among them ruling coalition partner Unidas Podemos, also warned in a joint manifesto that the EU must avoid being dragged into a conflict in Ukraine, adding that the bloc should draw up proposals for de-escalation.

Spanish citizens are not “fools” and know that NATO is “a military alliance to protect the interests of the United States,” Pablo Iglesias, a founder and former leader of the Podemos grouping, said on 22 January. [Euractiv]

The joint manifesto signed by Unidas Podemos highlights differences between the group and its senior governing coalition partner, Sanchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE).

As Russia massed troops on the Ukrainian border, the Spanish government announced it was deploying a mine-sweeper and a frigate to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. [Reuters] At the same time, Madrid called for dialogue with Moscow.

Meanwhile, Spain is sending up to seven Eurofighter jets to Bulgaria, while the Netherlands is dispatching two F-35 stealth fighters, Bulgarian Defence Minister Stefan Yanev said. The warplanes will perform air policing tasks amid the Ukraine crisis. [Euractiv]

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EC proposes EUR 1.2b in emergency aid for Kyiv amid Russian invasion fears

The European Commission has proposed more than EUR 1 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine as fears mount about the impact a Russian invasion would have on the country’s economy. [Politico]

The package contains a mixture of loans and grants that could help Ukraine address its financing needs due to the conflict. If approved, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU could begin “the rapid disbursement” to Ukraine of EUR 600 million. [Politico]

The package needs to be approved by EU countries and the European Parliament. It would consist of a EUR 1.2 billion emergency financial assistance package and EUR 120 million in additional grants. [Politico]

The EU and European financial institutions have allocated over EUR 17 billion in grants and loans to Ukraine since 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and backed separatist forces in the eastern Donbas region, von der Leyen said. 

President Volodymyr Zelensky said his government will spend at least USD 4-5 billion to stabilize the economic situation. “I do not count on a smaller figure, this is the amount we need,” Zelensky said at a briefing with foreign media representatives in Kyiv on 28 January. [Interfax]

Foreign investors are concerned about the impact a war would have on the country’s economy. 

The Ukrainian hryvnya has lost more than 10 percent of its value since the Russian military build-up began. Foreign debt investors have dumped Ukrainian bonds, while yields on Ukrainian dollar debt have surged, making it prohibitively expensive for the country or its companies to borrow on international markets. [RFE/RL]

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Hungarian PM visits ally Putin in Moscow amid tensions, drawing criticism

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 1 February, a visit criticised as a risk to EU unity as Russia massed soldiers on the border with Ukraine. (The Guardian) [Euronews]

Orban is seen as Putin’s closest ally in the European Union, and his meeting with the Russian president was watched nervously in Europe’s capitals. (The Guardian)

Amid international tensions caused by the build-up of Russian troops next to Ukraine, Orban has remained quiet on the situation, except saying at a gathering of European right-wing leaders in Madrid that he is “in favour of peace and de-escalation”. (The Guardian)

The topics of discussions with Putin were expected to include the planned extension of Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant, the launching of production of the Russian-designed Sputnik vaccine in Hungary, and gas purchases from Russia. Critics said the meeting undermined the efforts of EU nations and the US to diversify European fuel supplies in case a conflict erupts in Ukraine. (The Guardian, Hungary Today)

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Russia may send troops to Cuba, Venezuela as tensions with US escalate over Ukraine, NATO 

Russia has refused to rule out deploying troops to Cuba and Venezuela if tensions with the US escalate amid failed diplomatic efforts to solve its potential conflict with Ukraine and a further expansion of NATO into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkav, told state television that he could “neither confirm nor exclude” the deployment and that the decision “all depends on the actions by our US counterparts.” The Biden administration responded swiftly to the threat, vowing a “decisive” response if it sees any evidence that the threat is real.  [The Guardian][Miami Herald]

Ryabkav made the comments after several rounds of talks between the two countries failed to resolve the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and the further expansion of NATO. Russia has positioned tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border, sparking fears of an invasion.

The US has historically considered the Western Hemisphere its sphere of strategic influence. Under the Monroe Doctrine, a principle of US policy and originated by President James Monroe in 1823, any intervention by external powers in the politics of South America is considered potentially a hostile act against the US. The doctrine was central to US foreign policy for much of the 19th and early 20th centuries.

If Russia were to move in that direction, “we would deal with it decisively,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. “I’m not going to respond to bluster in the public commentary that wasn’t raised in the discussions at the Strategic Stability Dialogue.” [Wall Street Journal] [The Guardian]

The Russia threat of troop deployment comes as the Kremlin puts pressure on the US to halt Western military activity in its sphere of influence through the expansion of NATO. Russia claims that the expansion of the organisation into new countries across Eastern Europe poses a threat to Moscow.

Despite the differences between the two countries, neither side sees immediate grounds for fresh talks. The recent rounds of negotiations have yielded little progress.

Michael Carpenter, the US representative at the Organisation for Security and Co-Operation (OSCE), made it clear that there had been little to no progress made in defusing tensions between either side. “The drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the rhetoric has gotten rather shrill,” said Carpenter. [The Guardian]

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Russia moves planned naval exercises outside of Ireland’s EEZ after intense criticism

Russia said it will move its planned naval exercises outside of Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone after intense criticism from the Irish government, who said the drills were “not welcomed” amid the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Moscow and Western nations over its military build-up along the Ukrainian border.  

Russian ambassador Yury Filatov said the decision to move the exercises was “a gesture of goodwill” after meeting with representatives of the Irish fishing industry. He said the decision was made “with the aim not to hinder the fishing activities by the Irish vessels in the traditional fishing areas.” [Euractiv]

Before the Russian decision, Ireland’s foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney said that plans by Russia to hold the exercises were “not welcome.” This is “not a time to increase military activity and tension in the context of what is happening with and in Ukraine at the moment,” he said. [AOL]

The Irish government had issued a warning to all seagoing vessels that the drills would begin on February 3 and last five days. The exercises were set to occur inside the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone, an area about 130 nautical miles from the Irish coastline where the country has exclusive fishing rights.

The Russian decision to hold naval exercises comes amid increased tension with Western nations. Moscow has amassed tens of thousands of troops along the Ukrainian border and threatened to deploy troops to Cuba and Venezuela if US-led NATO expands further into Moscow’s sphere of influence. 

The Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation had said it would disrupt the drills by sailing into the area to force the Russian navy to reroute to avoid collision. They feared that the drills could damage their livelihoods by disrupting marine life and migration patterns. [Politico Europe]

“I think their campaign was very effective and very persuasive this week”, said Coveney. “I think it’s a good example of a fishing organisation and the Government working in tandem.” [Euractiv]

The Irish Aviation Authority had said there would be no impact to the safety of civil aircraft operations. Russia informed Ireland’s aviation authorities of the planned activities in advance. [AOL]

Norwegian reconnaissance has spotted a number of warships sailing towards Ireland, including one of Russia’s largest missile cruisers, the Marshal Ustinov. It is known as an “aircraft carrier killer”, is almost 200 metres long and contains 500 sailors. Military experts believe the flotilla contains five ships. [Irish Times]

Ten of the 13 Irish MEPs, representing all main political parties, wrote to the EU’s High Representative on Foreign Affairs calling on him to raise their “deep unease” with Russian officials at the highest levels. It is believed the manoeuvres could be a show of strength related to tensions between Russia and Ukraine. [Irish Examiner]

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Kazakhstan unrest quelled, after Russian troops intervene

Protests in Kazakhstan which resulted in at least 225 civilian deaths after they had turned into violent riots came to a swift halt after the government cracked down relentlessly backed by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) – a military alliance of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgistan –that responded to its ally’s distress call by sending in thousands of troops. 

Protests broke out on 2 January after the government of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had lifted oil price control regulations which caused a sharp spike in energy costs in a country whose population, despite the country´s wealth, is living a poor living standard. Initially peaceful, the situation suddenly erupted into riots, arson, and looting across the country as older economic and anti-governmental grievances were given room to breathe. When the government’s backpedaling on fuel prices and a decision to disband the government failed to appease the rioters, Kazakhstan sent up a flare seeking outside help, while its own security forces responded with relentless suppression. [Reuters]

After the declaration of the state of emergency, and accompanied by a nationwide internet shut down on Jan. 5 [The Conversation], this culminated in a presidential order given on 7 January to shoot troublemakers on sight. [BBC] [Al Jazeera] [TASS 1] [France 24]

The EU, which earlier urged Kazakhstan and Russia to respect the right to peaceful protest [Euractiv], together with some international NGOs, demanded an independent investigation into the government crackdown. Human Rights Watch accused the government of indiscriminate, unproportioned use of lethal force. [HRW]

Regarding the deployed CSTO force, formed by contingents of all CSTO member states, it seems to have not been involved in riot control but rather have been used to protect strategic facilities and places. [TASS 1] The contingent was deployed only hours after Kazakh President Tokayev called for support in overcoming what he claimed to be a foreign orchestrated “terrorist threat”. [France 24]

The majority of the 3,600 paratroopers dispatched on 6 January arrived from Moscow, where the CSTO headquarter is based. The contingent was commanded by three-star General Andrey Serdyukov, Russia´s maverick airborne commander who led Russian forces at almost all critical junctures of its geopolitical resurgence in recent years, including the troops taking control of Crimea in 2014, active in Donbass in 2015, and Syria in 2019. [Middle East Monitor] 

It was the first time in its 30-year history that the CSTO ordered a military “peace-keeping” operation. [Eurasia Net] [RFE/RL]

The troops were fully withdrawn from Kazakhstan on 19 January after rioters were scattered, with some 10,000 arrested and the emergency lifted. [RFE/RL 1] [Kazinform]

Meanwhile, the Tokayev government, which remains under full control of the situation, emerged as the victor of an intra-elite power battle with the first Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev. After stepping down as president and installing Tokayev in 2019, three-decades of personality cult and reckless enrichment of the Nazarbayev clan continued. Nazarbayev maintained a central position within the country´s power structure, exerting strong influence as appointed “Leader of the Nation” and chairman of the national security council, who still enjoyed absolute immunity and full inviolability according to a 2010 amended constitutional law acknowledging a stunning range of powers and privileges. [New York Times] [Akorda, in Russian] 

In the wake of the riot suppression operations, President Tokayev indicated that his former mentor had tried to topple him with foreign assistance and started to effectively purge the Kazakh power structure from the Nazarbayev Clan. After Tokayev started this process by removing Nazarbayev himself from his position as the chair of the National Security Council on January 5, he arrested Kair Massimov, Nazarbayev´s strong right arm as chief of the country´s most powerful security body, the Committee for National Security (KNB), and charged him with treason, along with his second-in-command, Nazarbayev´s nephew, who is said to have watched Massimov on behalf of his uncle. [RFE/RL 2]

This was followed by moving numerous other representatives of the former leader´s family and client circle from power until an extraordinary XXI Party Congress of the ruling Kazakh party replaced Nazarbayev as its chairman by President Tokayev on January 28. [eurasianet 1] [New York Times]

Meanwhile, Tokayev announced a “de-oligarchization” of the economy” by reforms designed to address the economic and governmental stagnation which caused the demonstrations to snowball. [AP] To this this end, the president set up a fund that ‘invites’ especially allies of the former leader to transfer large amounts of money into the fund.  In a speech to Parliament on Jan. 11, Tokayev said, “[t]hanks to the first president […] a group of very profitable companies has appeared in the country, as has a group of people who are rich, even by international standards,” Tokayev said. For them, so Tokayev, it was time “to pay their dues to the people of Kazakhstan and help them on a systematic and regular basis.” [eurasianet 2]    

Whatever the exact influence of the Russian-led CSTO deployment was on the outcome of this internal power struggle, it favored Moscow in several ways.

First, for Moscow, Nazarbayev was an increasingly awkward partner. After 2014, relations started to deteriorate over competing visions of a future Eurasian order in Central Asia. While pursuing a vision of Kazakh preeminence in the region, Nazarbaryev determinately balanced his foreign policy between Western, Russian, and Chinese interests. 

On the other hand, with an ethnic Russian population that dropped from forty to 19% since independence, Northern Kazakhstan, along with Abkhazia, Crimea, and the Donbas, has been one of the earlier subjects of Russian nationalists´post-Soviet irredentism. [New York Times]

With Tokayev, Moscow has a Kazakh counterpart firm in power now, with whom it will likely find it much easier to cooperate. After all, Kazakhstan is of significant strategic importance for Russia. Bordering at its European part – with a small part of its territory geographically even belonging to Europe – Kazakhstan is Asia´s third largest state, aside Russia and linking it with China. With its only 19 million inhabitants it is one of the largest countries in the world, Kazakhstan is the second-largest economy of the former Soviet republics behind Russia, rich in minerals, producing 40% of the world´s uranium, and enjoying the 12th largest oil reserves.

Second, with the Kazakh operation, the CSTO emerged for the first time as a Russian-led collective security factor within the Eurasian governance framework. After its refusal to get involved in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Kazakhstan might have become a game changer. [The Diplomat] 

Commenting on the bloc’s quick response to Kazakhstan’s call, political analyst Arkady Dubnov told BBC Russia: “The CSTO ceases to be a paper tiger, reveals its readiness and determination to be completed in anticipation of dramatic and chaotic threats on the territory of its catchment area.” [Europe Cities] Reflecting the CSTO´s rising credentials, Tokayev, on February 1, already declared to open a permanent mission at the CSTO in Moscow. [TASS 2]

Third, for actual and potential allies the episode reinforces Moscow´s narrative of a Western threat of “color revolutions” and its own ability to fend them off in a symbolically powerful way. President Putin´s response to Tokayev´s declaration that Kazakhstan was under attack from outside forces that provided the legal pretext to call in ally support based on art. 4 of the CSTO treaty, was abundantly clear, with the Russian leader claiming, “the emerging threat to Kazakhstan isn’t from spontaneous protests over fuel prices, but from the fact that destructive internal and external forces have taken advantage of the situation.” In fact, “well-organized, well-managed groups of militants were deployed” and “Maidan technologies” were put into use. [The Diplomat] But, so Putin, “[w]e won´t let anyone disturb the situation on our homes and won´t allow scenarios of so-called color revolutions to be played out.”  [Bloomberg]

Similarly, Belarus’s strongman president, Alexander Lukashenko, affirmed while welcoming back forces from Kazakhstan on 15 January: “The threats Kazakhstan has recently faced are common to most post-Soviet countries.” [Belta] 

More importantly, however, China`s leader Xi Jinping during a call with Tokayev, also echoed the claim of a Western sponsored color revolution, expressing also his willingness to help. [The Hill]

Notably, the fear of Western instigated color revolutions is a central point of convergence of the steadily tightening Sino-Russian partnership. At its core lies the rejection of what both countries perceive as Western attempts to impose their universalistic values by a string of interventions, which both consider these kind of interventions as a primary national security threat, possibly taking the form of “color revolutions.” Especially the experience of the Maidan and the Hong Kong protests in 2014 catalyzed this perception as a central thread of Sino-Russian national security planning and cooperation. The Kazakh episode, with its swift and successful CSTO operation, just became the test ground for collective military responses against what both country´s claim to perceive as Western interventions. 

In sum, Kazakhstan is more firmly integrated in the Russian sphere of influence while the Kazakh riot suppression will remain a strong symbol of a non-Western governance model and Eurasian order.

Not least in light of the Western failure to facilitate long-term nation building in Afghanistan, the Russian-led mission of short-term and cost-effective regime stabilization could become an increasingly prominent model for likeminded governments.

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New European Parliament head vows to fight ‘anti-EU narrative’

Maltese centre-right MEP Roberta Metsola has vowed, after being elected as the youngest ever president of the European Parliament and the first woman in the post for 20 years, to fight back against an “anti-EU narrative.”

In what some described as a generational and geographic shift, Metsola was on 18 January chosen for one of the EU’s top posts after a power-sharing deal struck by the three biggest groups in the European Parliament: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe. [Politico] [BBC News]

Presidents of the legislative body, which has the power to negotiate and approve almost all EU legislation, have traditionally come from European powerhouses such as Germany and France, or from founding members such as the Netherlands. [Politico] [FT]

Metsola, 43, said in a victory speech that she aimed to “recapture a sense of belief and enthusiasm” for the European project. 

She told MEPs that in the years ahead, people across the continent would look to EU institutions for leadership and direction, “while others will continue to test the limits of our democratic values and European principles.” She added: “We must fight back against the anti-EU narrative that takes hold so easily and so quickly.” [Politico]

Known for her opposition to abortion, Metsola said the European Parliament has been "unambiguous" in supporting women’s right to terminations, and insisted that she would represent the legislative body’s position on sexual and reproductive health, rather than her own. [Euronews/AFP]

Malta is a resolutely Catholic country and the only EU member state with a total ban on abortion. [BBC News]

Metsola, a member of the European People's Party and a lawyer by training, takes over as Parliament president from David Sassoli, 65, who died earlier in January after a serious illness.

Sassoli, an Italian who belonged to the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) grouping in the European Parliament, was rumoured to have been seeking to stay in his post, despite a 2019 deal under which he had been expected to make room for a conservative when his two-and-half-year term ended in January. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

Metsola faces the task of boosting the Parliament’s clout following two years during which its institutional influence has shrunk amid the COVID-19 pandemic. [FT]

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France outlines priorities for its EU presidency

President Emmanuel Macron has laid out France’s ambitions for its presidency of the EU in a speech to the European Parliament focusing on defence, digital transformation and combating climate change.[Euronews] 

France took over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Slovenia on 1 January. The Council negotiates and adopts EU laws, together with the European Parliament. The Council also sets the agenda, ensures cooperation among member states, and hosts meetings of government ministers from each EU country to debate, amend and adopt laws proposed by the European Commission. [Council of the EU] [European Union]  

France says it will prioritise pursuing EU regulation of digital platforms through the Digital Service Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), establish a carbon tax for products imported from outside the EU, and conduct negotiations on an EU minimum wage. [PFUE] 

Macron said he wanted to “rethink the budgetary framework” of the bloc, defined by the Stability and Growth Pact, which imposes restrictions on how much member states can borrow and how steep their budget deficits can be relative to GDP. 

The Stability and Growth Pact was suspended in 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic forced governments to borrow and spend at emergency levels. France, along with Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal, which all have high debt-to-GDP ratios, are pushing strongly in favour of more flexible rules. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

The French presidency began with discussions about a controversial new amendment to the EU’s “taxonomy” for sustainable investment that would label natural gas and nuclear energy “as a means to facilitate the transition towards a predominantly renewable-based future.” 

While France and Poland back nuclear energy, Germany is opposed to including nuclear power in the EU taxonomy. But Berlin is in favour of including natural gas, even asking the European Commission to ease restrictions on fossil gas. [European Commission] [Politico]  [Euractiv] [Politico] 

Regarding European security, in light of Russia’s military build-up at the Ukrainian border, Macron highlighted the EU’s opposition to “spheres of influence.” [France 24] [Euronews] 

He said “strategic rearmament” was necessary to ensure European security and suggested the EU should hold direct talks with Russia in addition to discussions with the US and NATO. 

He pushed for the revival of talks in the so-called Normandy format, grouping France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia. Macron is a proponent of “strategic autonomy,” and wants to strengthen European defence, which includes ensuring the bloc is not too dependent on Russia for energy. [Euractiv] [France 24] [Euractiv] 

Paris has expressed a desire for a more “sovereign” Europe. This includes more assertiveness in the EU’s trade policy and reforming the Schengen Area to strengthen the EU’s external borders, with a stronger European Border Police and Coast Guard presence, and better cooperation and information exchange among members. The Schengen Area is a zone where 26 European countries abolished their internal borders and allow the free movement of people. [Politico] [European Commission] [ETIAS] 

Macron said the EU should rethink its relationships with Western Balkan countries and give them true prospects of joining the bloc. He also said the European Union should build a new alliance with African countries, an issue which will be discussed at a summit in February. [Euractiv] 

In his speech, Macron also said he was in favour of adding defence of the environment and the right to abortion to the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights. [France 24] 

With French presidential and legislative elections coming up in April and June, Macron’s opponents have accused him of using Paris’s presidency of the EU as a platform for a domestic political campaign. 

Macron has not declared himself a candidate yet, but is widely expected to run for a second term. In response to his speech in the European Parliament, political groupings changed their planned speakers, so they could use their time to criticize the French president. [France 24][Euractiv] 

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Berlin backs French efforts for a more sovereign, powerful EU amid great power rivalries

Germany wants the EU to increase its “strategic sovereignty” to protect itself against the adverse effect of great power rivalries between the US, China and Russia. [France 24]

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on 31 January that France and Germany have a “special responsibility” to make the EU a stronger world power as Paris assumes the bloc’s rotating presidency. The two countries must be “capable of acting and looking towards the future,” she said in an interview with AFP. [France 24]

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he wants to make the EU “powerful in the world” during his country’s presidency of the European Council, which began on 1 January. He has long envisioned a stronger EU. [France 24] 

France’s presidency is “an important opportunity we want to seize together to strengthen Europe and make it fit to rise up to tomorrow’s challenges,” Baerbock said.

Germany will also host the next G7 summit in June as president of the group of wealthy democracies, giving the EU a chance to establish global diplomatic leadership in 2022.  [France 24]

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NASA looks to Europe in race to the Moon

A NASA-led project to put humans back on the Moon by 2024 has won the support of a handful of European nations – but France and Germany have yet to add their signatures to the plans, known as the Artemis Accords.  

French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly expressed interest in NASA’s plans to land the first woman on the Moon, establish a crewed lunar base, and begin mining the Moon for natural resources. A spokesperson for Macron said: “We are continuing our discussions with the United States, in constant cooperation with our European partners.” [Politico] 

Like France, Germany boasts a national space programme but has to date not joined the Artemis Accords, with some observers in Berlin calling for greater coordination among European Space Agency (ESA) member states. [Politico]

China and Russia have also unveiled plans for a lunar base and have said that they will not support NASA’s project. [NBC]

So far, 14 nations including Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, and Ukraine have signed the Artemis Accords, with Mexico the latest to join, climbing aboard in December. [Diario Presente]

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UK spy service says Chinese agent infiltrated British parliament

Britain’s domestic counterintelligence and security agency, MI5, has alerted lawmakers of an alleged Chinese agent suspected of being involved in political activities in the United Kingdom and of having facilitated financial donations to serving and aspiring parliamentarians.

Funding allegedly came from foreign nationals based in China and Hong Kong. 

Issuing an alert about an individual is a rare move for MI5, and signals that a long-running investigation has amassed sufficient proof and triggered enough concern to go public.

The Chinese embassy in London accused MI5 of “smearing and intimidation” against the UK’s Chinese community. The embassy said in a statement that China “always adheres to the principle of non-interference” in other countries’ internal affairs. [South China Morning Post] [BBC]. 

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MEPs urge EU to react as ‘divide and rule’ China pressures Lithuania

More than 40 lawmakers have called on European Union leaders to react to China’s diplomatic and economic pressure on Lithuania, warning that remaining inactive will allow China “to weaken EU unity.” [South China Morning Post] 

In a letter addressed to leaders including European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, 41 European Parliament lawmakers warned that inaction would also allow China to “intensify ‘divide and rule’ practices among the EU member states as well as seek to diminish the EU’s role globally.” [South China Morning Post]

The call for action came as Lithuania faces Chinese trade restrictions as part of Beijing’s retaliation against the opening of a “Taiwanese representative office” in Vilnius in November last year. Observers have described the defence of Lithuania as an indication of whether the EU can present a unified and strategic response to economic pressure from China. [South China Morning Post] [Financial Times] [VOA] [EUObserver]

Diplomatic missions in other countries are usually given the name “Taipei representative office” to avoid explicitly recognising the sovereignty of Taiwan – which China sees as a breakaway province. [Financial Times]

Lithuanian exports to China plummeted by up to 91.4 percent in December, after businesses in the Baltic country were removed from the Chinese customs system. [South China Morning Post]

The dispute has drawn in other European countries, including France, Germany and Sweden, as some of their exports are blocked at Chinese ports because they are made with Lithuanian-manufactured components. Affected German businesses – particularly in the auto industry – have urged Lithuania to compromise with Beijing. Executives from car-parts manufacturer Continental were among business leaders who met with Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė in December to voice concerns. [South China Morning Post] [Reuters]

According to a Financial Times report, US diplomats suggested that the Taiwanese office in Vilnius be renamed – a claim denied by the administration of President Joe Biden. A Reuters report quoted a senior US official as saying that “the suggestion that we would be pressuring them… is fundamentally at odds with our entire position.” [Reuters] [Financial Times] [Reuters] 

Meanwhile, in a reflection of growing pro-Taiwan sentiment among European countries, Slovenia’s Prime Minister Janez Janša called Taiwan a “democratic country,” adding that talks were taking place with Taipei for the two countries to set up representative offices in each other’s territories. Beijing labelled Janša’s comments as “dangerous”, and Chinese businesses began cutting ties with Slovenian firms days later. [South China Morning Post] [AiR No. 3, January/2022, 3] [VOA]

Slovenian Foreign Minister Anze Logar later insisted there had been “no divergence from our position” on a one-China policy. A representative office to be opened in Slovenia “will be named Taipei” instead of referring to Taiwan, said Monika Gregorcic, chairwoman of the parliamentary foreign policy committee.

EU leaders have proposed the adoption of an anti-coercion mechanism which would provide the bloc more political tools to strike back against economic bullying. The mechanism, proposed in December, is thought to be potentially several years from realisation, however. [Politico]

France has signalled that action over Lithuania is needed sooner. Asked if Paris would push for EU efforts to resist Beijing before the anti-coercion mechanism is ready, a senior French government official told Politico “Yes. We will take measures very quickly.”

In the meantime, Brussels has begun trying to arrange a summit meeting with Beijing to take place before the end of March, while the European Commission took steps to file a lawsuit against China at the World Trade Organisation. Taiwan has also pledged to back Lithuania through significant investment in the technology sector. [Politico] [VOA] [Reuters] [South China Morning Post] 

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French, European, UK deputies urge action on rights abuses in Xinjiang

France's parliament on January 20 passed a resolution calling on the government to denounce Beijing’s “crimes against humanity and genocide” against the Uyghur Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang region, and to take foreign policy measures to prevent such abuses.

With the resolution, adopted with 169 votes in favour and just one against, the French National Assembly joins a growing group of parliaments in Western countries condemning China’s human rights violations in Xinjiang as genocide. Dutch, British and Belgian lawmakers have adopted similar resolutions. [France 24]

The European Parliament on the same day adopted a resolution on violations of fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, condemning the deterioration of human rights in the former British colony including “severe restrictions on freedom of expression, freedom of association and press freedom.” 

The resolution urged the European Council to put into place “targeted sanctions” against Hong Kong and Chinese officials considered responsible for an ongoing crackdown on human rights. It also called for “a diplomatic and political boycott” of the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing. [European Parliament]

Meanwhile, in a parliamentary debate in London, lawmakers have demanded that the British government puts more sanctions in place against China and enacts blacklists targeting Chinese imports, along with additional measures to address alleged rights abuses against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region. [South China Morning Post]

In April last year, the lower house of the British parliament approved a motion which stated that Uighurs in Xinjiang were the victims of crimes against humanity and genocide. Lawmakers called on the government to use international law to bring such abuses to an end. [AiR No. 17, April/2021, 4]

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Germany, China hold high-level talks 

During their first video conference on 20 January, Germany’s recently appointed Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi discussed “bilateral relations and global issues” as well as “issues where fundamental differences of opinion exist – including with regard to human rights,” according to the German foreign ministry.

That was seen by observers as echoing earlier pledges for a European and value-led China policy combining both “dialogue and toughness.” Foreign Ministry, Germany, in German] [South China Morning Post]

China’s foreign ministry, meanwhile, reported that – among other things – both ministers agreed to “conduct equal dialogues on human rights, democracy and other issues on the basis of mutual respect, enhance mutual understanding, and refrain from ‘microphone diplomacy’.” [Foreign Ministry, China]

Days earlier, on January 17, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a phone conversation with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang during which the latter called for a focus on fostering “pragmatic” cooperation.

Scholz responded that Germany was ready to “further deepen cooperation in the fields of trade and economy,” according to a readout of the talks from the Chinese foreign ministry. [Foreign Ministry, China 2]

It appeared that human rights were not on the agenda, with a German government statement not mentioning these. [Federal Government, Germany, in German]

In earlier talks between Scholz and Chinese President Xi Jinping, held in December, human rights were also excluded from the agenda. [see AiR No. 52, December/2021, 4]

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Czech Republic bolsters ties with Taiwan

After six months of negotiations between parties including the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Prague, a Taiwan Resource Center for Chinese Studies will be established at the Czech Republic’s Masaryk University. [Focus Taiwan].

Recently-appointed Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala last month approved a four-year policy plan which includes measures to foster closer ties with Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as a reassessment of relations with the People’s Republic of China and Russia. [Taipei Times]

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s foreign ministry on January 21 voiced support for a resolution by the Czech Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee which called on the Czech government and the European Union to closely monitor the economic pressure China is exerting on Lithuania.

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US ranked top in defence technology, followed by France, Russia

The US has been ranked the world’s top country in terms of defence technology, followed by France and Russia in joint second place, in a review of 16 selected military powers by the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for Defense Technology Planning and Advancement (KRIT). 

Germany and the UK were ranked joint fourth, and China sixth. Other countries reviewed include Israel (seventh), Italy (10th), Sweden (11th), Spain (14th), and the Netherlands (15th). [KRIT] [Korea Herald]

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US withdraws support for EastMed pipeline

The United States has withdrawn its support for the proposed EastMed subsea pipeline, designed to supply Europe with natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean. [Euractiv] [Jerusalem post]

Greece, Cyprus and Israel have approved an agreement for the EastMed pipeline, which has been in the planning stage for several years. The countries had aimed to reach a final investment decision this year and have the EUR 6 billion project finished by 2025 in order to help Europe diversify its energy [Reuters].

An agreement was signed in January 2020. The plan is for the pipeline to send between 9 and 12 billion cubic metres of gas a year from offshore fields between Israel and Cyprus to Greece, Italy, and other southeastern European countries.

The US embassy and consulate in Greece said in a statement: “We remain committed to physically interconnecting East Med energy to Europe. We are shifting our focus to electricity interconnectors that can support both gas and renewable energy sources.”

The discovery of substantial natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean in recent years has sharpened the appetite of countries in the region but increased geopolitical tensions between Turkey and its neighbours. [Euractiv]

Turkey opposes the EastMed pipeline, and has said any such plans in the eastern Mediterranean that exclude it were bound to fail. [Reuters]

Greek media outlets have reported that the US believes the EastMed pipeline has caused tensions and wants key players to focus on other projects that would help increase political stability in the region. [Euractiv]

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US charges four Belarus officials with air piracy for diverting Ryanair flight

The US has charged four Belarusian officials with aircraft privacy after they allegedly used a false bomb threat last year to divert a flight to Minsk in order to arrest opposition journalist Roman Protasevich and his partner.

The Director General of Belarus’s state air navigation authority, Leonid Mikalaevich Churo, his deputy, Oleg Kazyuchits, and two state security officers, Andrey Anatolievich Lnu and Fnu Lnu, were charged by US prosecutors. They could face life imprisonment if convicted, though it is unlikely that the officials will be brought to the US from Belarus. [Forbes]

Churo had allegedly communicated the false bomb threat to Belarusian air traffic officials before the flight to Vilnius took off from Athens. Air traffic officials then waited for the plane to enter Belarusian air space before alerting the pilot to the purported bomb threat. [BBC] 

The Ryanair flight 4978 was carrying four US nationals and more than 100 other passengers when it was diverted from Vilnius to the Belarusian capital. 

FBI Assistant Director Michael Driscoll has said that the incident was a “reckless violation of US law,” and that “the next pilot who gets a distress call from a tower may doubt the authenticity of the emergency, which puts lives at risk.” [BBC]

A UN report published in January concluded that the bomb threat was deliberately false.

Protasevich has been an outspoken critic of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for more than 20 years and has silenced most media outlets in the country. Protasevich, 26, had worked as a journalist with opposition media Nexta. 

He and his partner, Sofia Sapega, have both publicly confessed to criminal charges, apparently under duress. Protasevich was released from prison in June 2021 and has spent the last seven months under house arrest. He had been living in Lithuania and had been designated a terrorist by the Belarus secret service. [Forbes]

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Croatia, US sign deal to fight drug trade 

Croatia and the United States have signed an agreement pledging to cooperate more in clamping down on the illicit drugs trade across southeastern Europe.

The chargé d’affaires at the American embassy in Zagreb, Mark Fleming, said: “The US-Croatia partnership is strong, dynamic, and growing.” [Euractiv]

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Croatian interior ministry and the US Department of Justice’s Drug Enforcement Administration on 12 January.

Croatian Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Davor Božinović said that, following his country’s admission to the US visa waiver program, the memorandum was “another result of intensive cooperation with our American partners as well as confirmation that the United States sees Croatia alongside other countries which meet the highest security standards.” 

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COVID served as shield for corruption across EU: watchdog

EU governments have used the COVID pandemic as justification for neglecting anti-corruption efforts, and cutting back on accountability and transparency,  a new report by NGO Transparency International says. [Transparency International] [The Independent]

The report, released on 25 January, laments EU governments’ failure to protect whistle-blowers, with only five out of 27 member states having transposed a directive from the European Commission on whistle-blower protection.

It also highlights procurement scandals across the EU, linked to weaker rules implemented at the beginning of the pandemic in order to speed up purchases.

The report adds that governments have still not restored transparency measures. With Brussels set to distribute EUR 800 billion to national governments in pandemic recovery money, EU officials are concerned that the size of these funds and the speed at which they are being granted will make them a major corruption risk,  according to Transparency International. [Politico]

Finland, Denmark, and New Zealand are named as the least corrupt countries in the world, jointly ranked in first place by Transparency International. It classifies Western Europe as the region with the lowest perceived corruption.

The lowest-rated countries in the EU are Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. Notable improvements over the last 10 years include Estonia, Slovakia  Greece, and Italy, which are “reaping the rewards of anti-corruption reforms.” On the other hand, Poland, Hungary and Cyprus are listed as significant decliners in the report. [The Independent]

Transparency International draws particular attention to Slovenia, saying its most recent rating is “a historical low”. The NGO says the government in Ljubljana has “put pressure on independent oversight bodies”, as well as threatening the freedom to assemble peacefully by drastically limiting the right to protest, and launching a “smear campaign” against the country’s public media outlets. [Politico]

Transparency issues a similar warning over Austria, faulting it for neglect of anti-corruption efforts, and highlighting allegations that former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz bribed journalists for favourable coverage and falsified polls. [The New York Times]

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EU executive under fire over move to label nuclear energy ‘green’

In a New Year’s Eve surprise, the European Commission published its long-awaited proposal for a “green taxonomy” which offers lucrative support to industries classed as environmentally friendly – and caused an immediate outcry from some member states by including nuclear energy.

Under the proposal, new nuclear power plants can claim “green” status provided they submit a plan for dealing with nuclear waste and receive construction permits before 2045. Existing plants can get access to funds for “modifications and safety upgrades” aimed at extending their operational life. [Euractiv] [Guardian]

Europe in Review previously reported that Germany, Austria, Denmark, Luxembourg, and Portugal were leading the opposition to the proposal. Once again, these states have spoken out. [EiR Monthly December 2021] 

Berlin has also weighed in. While the new German coalition government is strongly in favour of including natural gas in the taxonomy, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck described nuclear power as “risky and expensive” in a letter to the European Commission. [Euractiv]

However, the nuclear energy industry is not satisfied with the plans either. 

FORATOM, the sector’s main lobbying organisation and trade association, has warned that no existing power plant would meet the Commission’s green standards. Jessica Johnson, FORATOM’s communications director, told Euractiv that the “accident-tolerant fuel” the Commission expects “green” nuclear plants to have does not currently exist outside of research. [Euractiv] 

Some nuclear-sceptic states intend to do more than just complain. Austria, a leading voice of opposition, has vowed to take legal action against the Commission and would be supported in that by Luxembourg. [Deutsche Welle] 

While the Commission’s proposal is controversial, opponents are in the minority and face a high bar for meaningful action. To block the proposal, which cannot be amended further after adoption in January, they would need a supermajority of countries representing at least 65 percent of the EU's population. [Politico Europe]

Members of the European Parliament are also angry at what they say was a lack of communication and engagement from the Commission on the taxonomy proposal. The EU’s only directly elected legislative body was not involved in drafting the proposal, which the Commission released while MEPs were on holiday. [Euractiv]

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EU data protection body orders Europol to delete vast database 

The European Data Protection Supervisor has ordered Europol, which is responsible for managing cooperation between the law enforcement services of EU member states, to delete a vast store of personal information on individuals “with no established link to a criminal activity” – opening another front in a clash between data privacy and security interests.

On 3 January, the EDPS found that Europol had acted unlawfully in storing such personal data and has obliged the agency to delete information held for over six months. [Euractiv]

According to internal documents seen by The Guardian, Europol holds a colossal store of personal data nearly 4 petabytes in size – but only a quarter of this relates to criminals, suspects or their associates. 

The European Commissioner for home affairs, Ylva Johansson, has offered support to Europol, arguing that the agency “needs the tools, resources and the time to analyse data.” [Guardian]

An inquiry into Europol’s data handling was carried out in 2020 after issues were raised at the agency a year earlier. At the time, the EDPS gave the police agency time to submit a new plan on data protection before taking further measures. After Europol was found “unable to provide appropriate reassurances” that the data was being handled properly, the EDPS took action. [Politico Europe] [Euractiv]

The move by the EDPS is a blow to Europol’s embrace of “data-driven” policing. The police agency had previously sought an exemption from the EU’s general data protection rules. Speaking to Euractiv in October 2021, Belgian Green MEP Saskia Bricmont criticised this as being “meant to legalise current practices that went beyond scope.” [Euractiv]

Data privacy advocates have welcomed the EDPS decision, with one observer describing Europol’s failure to respect privacy as damaging to the agency’s “dignity and integrity.” [ProPrivacy] [Gizmodo]

The head of the EDPS, Wojciech Wiewiórowski, is considered a “hawk” on data privacy issues. Wiewiórowski has previously called for a “more centralised enforcement model” that would give his office more power to enforce the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation. [Politico Europe]

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MEPs agree approach to targeted ads, social media platform regulation

The European Parliament has agreed its approach to the Digital Services Act (DSA), a legislative proposal that will introduce new regulations for internet platforms and tech businesses – though only after some significant amendments were adopted.

The Tracking-free Ads Coalition, a group of MEPs opposed to data-driven advertising, successfully introduced a ban on the collection of information on users’ political and religious beliefs and sexual orientation for use in targeted advertising.

Other successful amendments include an obligation for services to allow user anonymity and a requirement for platforms to consider the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights, including media freedom, in their terms of service. [Euractiv] [Silicon Republic] [The Verge]

In the final vote on 20 January, MEPs voted in favour of the text by 530 votes to 78, with 80 abstentions.

As Europe in Review previously reported, the European Parliament agreed its negotiating position on the Digital Markets Act (DMA) in December 2021. Whereas the DSA intends to regulate internet platforms, the DMA aims at regulating the business environment for the companies that operate those platforms. 

European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton described the acts as “two sides of the same coin.” [European Commission] [EiR Monthly January 2022]

Like the DMA, the DSA was subject to intense lobbying. According to the Corporate Europe Observatory research group, lobbyists have met with MEPs over 600 times since the European Commission’s initial proposals for the DSA/DMA in late 2020. 

European media outlets have also pushed hard for their exclusion from content moderation requirements, on freedom of expression grounds. [EUobserver] [Euractiv]

With its approach to both acts now agreed, the European Parliament will enter “trilogue” negotiations with the European Council in the months to come to refine the acts before they become law.

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EU funds have ‘limited’ impact on legal reform in West Balkans, financial watchdog says

The EU’s budget oversight body said in a 10 January special report that financial aid to the Western Balkans was having only “a limited overall impact in advancing fundamental rule of law reforms.” [ECA]

The European Court of Auditors said the EU's efforts to support rule-of-law reform, which began more than two decades ago, with financial aid had made only “slight progress.” The auditors cited  “insufficient domestic political will to drive the necessary reforms” as a key factor. [Euractiv]

Juhan Parts, one of the report’s authors, told Politico that projects focusing on “technical assistance” and “institutional capacity building” had received political backing, while those that focused on legislative efforts and changes to the law had not. [Politico Europe]

Rule of law issues are one of several long-standing barriers to the Western Balkan states joining the EU. As Europe in Review has previously reported, member states such as France, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have long resisted efforts to expand the bloc. [EiR Monthly November 2021] [Balkan Insight]

However, attitudes may be shifting – at least in France. With his country taking over the Council of the EU’s rotating presidency, President Emmanuel Macron called for a “clear perspective of accession” to the bloc for the Western Balkan states. [European Western Balkans]

In another report released the same week, the Court of Auditors found that more than EUR 2 billion worth of grants to businesses had been “ineffective” in increasing energy efficiency. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Poland accounted for the bulk of the EU support. [ECA] [Euractiv]

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EU threatens sanctions against Serbian entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina; US sanctions Dodik

The EU warned that it could use a  “wide toolbox” of measures, including sanctions and the withdrawal of assistance, against the Serb-dominated entity of Bosnia-Herzegovina after its leaders used language to celebrate a holiday that the bloc said was “negative, divisive and inflammatory rhetoric.” [EEAS]

The EU issued a statement after the Republika Srpska celebrated 9 January a holiday that commemorates its proclamation in 1992, saying that the statements made by Bosnian-Serb leaders “jeopardise the stability and prosperity of the country, and are in complete contradiction with its EU perspective.” The Constitutional Court in Bosnia-Herzegovina has declared the holiday unconstitutional.

Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, said that Republika Srpska is “our state” and “will one day be an independent state and will have its own federal or confederate status with Serbia.” The republic’s president Zeljka Cvijanovic said that Bosnia-Herzegovina is “a failure and detrimental to all of us.” [Euractiv] 

The US sanctioned Dodik earlier in January. US officials accuse him of advocating for Bosnian Serb separation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said these “designations reaffirm the US commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of BiH [the abbreviation of Bosnia and Herzegovina], the rule of law and democratic institutions, and a better future for BiH's citizens.” [Newsweek]

Dodik believes that Bosnia-Herzegovina is an “imposed” state and has repeatedly threatened to remove the Serbian entity from state-wide institutions, such as the army, tax system and the judiciary. Dodik has also continued to deny the 1995 Srebrenica massacre that saw 8,000 Bosniak Muslims murdered during the Bosnian War. [RadioFreeEurope]

The declaration of a Serb Republic, independent from Bosnia-Herzegovina, was a major stepping stone towards the Bosnian War which began in April 1992. [Reuters]

Since 1995, Bosnia-Herzegovina has been governed on ethnic lines between two federal entities. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. While the FBiH comprises mainly Bosniaks and Croats, Republika Srpska is mostly Serbs. Each entity has its own legislature, president and police force.

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Russia sees discrimination against Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Russian Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Moscow on 18 January that Moscow sees discrimination against Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina and insisted that the Dayton Peace Agreement be honoured. [Euractiv]

“We, too, see the evident discrimination against Bosnia and Herzegovina Croats, about which the Croatian minister talked about,” he said at press conference after a bilateral meeting with his Croatian counterpart Gordan Grlic-Radman. He also said Russia stands for “strict compliance with the Dayton agreement.” [N1][Euractiv]

Grlic-Radman said that Lavrov agreed to the need for Croats to have legitimate representation in BiH’s “collective bodies, the Presidency and the House of Peoples.” [Euractiv] 

(gc)

 

Albania: PM Rama says country will never give up on EU

Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama said his country will “never give up” on Europe and on the EU, but he conceded that it was frustrating to wait for the membership process. However, he did criticize the bloc’s politicians for being too influenced by nationalistic pressure. [FT] 

He called on Western Balkan leaders to stay committed to their EU membership ambitions and rejected approaches by outside powers, saying that their overtures were inappropriate. He didn’t specify which countries. He spoke to the Financial Times.  [FT] 

Russia, China and Turkey are courting the region. Albania and Turkey signed seven agreements during the official visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that aimed to strengthen ties between the two countries. 

(gc)

 

US opens forward HQ in Albania as Russian arms shipment arrives in Serbia

US Special Operations Command Europe will open a forward-based headquarters in Albania on a rotational basis as Washington seeks to enhance regional stability in the Balkans amid a great power competition with Russia and China for economic and political influence. [DVIDS]

The location of the forward HQ in Albania will provide “increased interoperability” with our Albanian allies, important access to transportation hubs and greater logistical flexibility, the US Special Operations Command in Europe, or SOCEUR, said in a statement on 6 January.  SOCEUR, based in Stuttgart, works to strengthen the military capability of US partners across Europe and counter security threats across the continent. [DVIDS]

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said that the decision was a reflection of Albania’s “very high credibility” and a “very close cooperation” with the US. Major General David H. Tabor, Commander SOCEUR, said that “Albania remains an important NATO Ally and a valued security partner, both regionally and globally.” [BalkanInsight]

Since 2000, the Albanian military has been working with the US military as peacekeepers in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Albania was one of the few Balkan countries that sent troops to the US-led operation in Iraq in 2003 where it deployed peacekeeping troops. Albania formally joined NATO in 2009 alongside Croatia. 

The US and the EU are competing with China, Russia and Turkey for influence in the region. China is pursuing trade and business ties in the region, viewing it as a lynchpin between the Mediterranean Sea and Central Europe as the world’s second largest economy seeks to strengthen its commercial interests into new markets. Turkey signed multiple agreements with Albania in January.. 

Russia has had historically strong defence, political and economic ties with the region.

In Serbia, Russia has completed the shipment of Kornet Anti-Tank Missiles in a further display of growing defensive ties. The 9M133 Kornet is a man-portable guided missile system, designed by the Russian military and primarily built to target main battle tanks. This delivery comes after the announcement in December by Serbia’s Interior Minister, Aleksandar Vulin, that Serbia would purchase new Pantsir S1-M air defence missile systems from Russia. [EiR] [National Interest]

Serbia and Russia’s defence ties have improved as Moscow tries to maintain a level of strategic influence in the Balkans. Since 2015 the two nations, alongside Belarus, have taken part in joint military exercises codenamed Slavic Brotherhood. Russia continues to support the Serbian position that Kosovo, a breakaway Serbian province which declared independence in 2008, should not be recognised as an independent state.  [National Interest]

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Serbia: Government tacitly financing surveillance tools in Kosovar communities

The Serbian-dominated provisional authority in Kosovo signed a deal with Chinese company Zhejiang Dahua Technologies to purchase tens of thousands of euros worth of surveillance equipment,  Radio Free Europe reported, citing publicly available documents. 

The provisional authority bought digital audio recorders and small handheld cameras. The equipment suggests that the aim of the authority is to monitor schools across a dozen communities in south-eastern Kosovo. It was financed by a Serbian government office. [RadioFreeEurope]

This is not the first time that Serbia has bought Chinese surveillance equipment. 

In 2019, Former interior minister, Nebojsa Stefanovic, revealed plans for 8,000 cameras to be installed in central Belgrade in partnership with Huawei. Belgrade’s Republic Square was the first area in the capital to be under surveillance by technology purchased from Chinese companies. [FT]

The partnership revolves around the “safe cities” idea - increasingly marketed by China – which enables governments to use increasingly sophisticated surveillance technologies such as facial recognition software to monitor urban areas and enforce law.

Serbia has fostered closer ties with China over recent years, particularly since Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, assumed office in 2017. 

Aside from security and digitalisation cooperation, Chinese companies have invested more than EUR 2 billion in 16 projects in Serbia from 2012 to 2021. There have been suggestions that aid and investment has given China an undue influence on Serbia’s legislature with amendments made to laws in order to facilitate Chinese investors. [BalkanInsight]

(nw/gc)

 

Serbia denounces Australia’s decision to revoke tennis star Djokovic’s visa

Serbia denounced an Australian court’s decision to cancel the visa of tennis star Novak Djokovic after the world’s number one player was detained by immigration authorities for not being vaccinated against COVID-19 ahead of the Australian Open in Melbourne. [Euractiv] [Reuters]

President Aleksandar Vucic said Djokovic’s treatment by the media and Australian authorities was a “witch hunt.” Australian officials “think they humiliated Djokovic,” but “have humiliated themselves,” he said. 

 The 34-year-old Djokovic said he was “extremely disappointed” by the ruling but said he respected it. [Euractiv]  His family said in a statement to CNN they will continue to give Djokovic their full support, but criticized the decision as “politics … that took priority over sports.” [CNN] [Reuters]

Djokovic returned to Belgrade after being thwarted from defending his Australian Open title. He could be barred from the French Open this year, too, if he's still not vaccinated against COVID-19. [CTV News]

Djokovic’s eligibility for the Australian Open turned into a nearly two-week long saga when he landed in Melbourne on 5 January and was immediately detained by Australian Border Authorities. The following day, his visa was cancelled, and was taken to immigration detention while his lawyers filed an appeal. [Forbes]

An Australian court then sided with Djokovic and ordered the government to overturn his cancelled visa. Hawke cancelled his visa again on public health grounds, which Djokovic’s lawyers challenged in court, leading to a final ruling.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison thanked the court for their quick decision and added: “It’s now time to get on with the Australian Open.” [Forbes]

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Turkey, Armenia hold ‘constructive’ talks after decades of strained relations

Special envoys from Turkey and Armenia met on 14 January in Moscow in an effort to mend historically strained ties, though no concrete measures were announced after 90-minute of talks in the Russian capital. [ France 24] [AlJazeera]

Their foreign ministries issued statements saying that Armenian envoy Ruben Rubinyan and his Turkish counterpart, Serdar Kilic, met “in a positive and constructive atmosphere.” The parties agreed to continue negotiations without preconditions that aimed for full “normalisation” of relations, the ministries added. [ France 24] [AlJazeera]

Armenia’s foreign ministry said it expected the talks to lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of frontiers, Russia’s TASS news agency reported, citing a statement from the ministry. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko brokered the talks. [TASS]  [Christian Science Monitor]

The talks are a real “attempt to put aside differences so economic logistics can be created between the two countries,” Theodore Karasik, senior advisor at Gulf State Analytics, said. 

The two countries have a long history of hostility, which goes back to mass killings of Armenians under the Ottoman Turks during World War I. Armenia says 1.5 million people were killed in 1915 in what constituted genocide, a position supported by the United States and some others. Turkey contests the figures and denies killings were systematic or constitute genocide. [Christian Science Monitor]

The two countries have had no diplomatic and economic relations for more than 30 years. In 2009, they reached an agreement to normalise relations, which would have led to the opening of their shared border, but it wasn’t ratified.  [AlJazeera]  [Christian Science Monitor]

In 2020, tensions between them flared again over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Turkey backed Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and accused Armenia of occupying land. During the conflict, Turkey’s defence industry was a supplier to the Azerbaijani forces. [VOA]

In an effort to improve ties, they have appointed special envoys and are allowing a budget carrier to start flights between Yerevan and Istanbul on 2 February. Pegasus Airlines, a Turkish budget airline, opened sales for its Istanbul-Yerevan flights which will be carried out three times a week, after the Armenian Civil Aviation Committee on 10 January gave its approval for operating the route. [Tass]

Yerevan announced in December that it was lifting an embargo on Turkish goods that it had imposed in retaliation for Ankara supporting Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict. [ France 24] [AlJazeera][TASS]

(gc)

 

Turkey’s Erdogan signs agreements with Albanian counterpart during trip to reinforces ties

Albania and Turkey signed seven agreements during the official visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that aimed to strengthen ties between the two countries.  [Daily Sabah][AP]

The agreements cover disaster and emergency management, the media, state archives, culture and art, security and youth and sports.  The Albanian Telegraphic Agency, the country’s official multimedia news agency, and Turkey’s Anadolu Agency signed a cooperation agreement.  [Daily Sabah]

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama met with Erdogan during his visit on 17 January. He described Turkey’s role in the Western Balkan region as “indispensable, inalienable and no doubt a constructive role for peace.” [AP]

Turkey is one of Albania’s largest investors and trading partners. Ties are “at the level of strategic partnership”  and both countries want trade to increase to USD 1 billion annually from USD 853 million a year ago, Erdogan said.  [AP]

Erdogan called on Albania to take “concrete, decisive steps” toward removing the Fetullah Terrorist Organization from the country. [AP]

Erdogan attended a handover ceremony for more than 500 housing units in the town of Lac, 50 kilometres (30 miles) northwest of the capital Tirana, that a Turkish agency built for earthquake victims in Albania for EUR 42 million. He also inaugurated the historic 18th century Ethem Bey Mosque, which was restored by the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency.  [Daily Sabah]

(gc)

 

Some manufacturers in Turkey forced to halt production after Iran gas supplies disrupted

Some manufacturers in Turkey were forced to halt production last month after Iran cut gas supplies, a development that will only add to the economic problems confronting the energy dependent country. [Reuters] 

Companies impacted include car parts maker Ege Endustri, cardboard manufacturer Kartonsan and defence and automotive parts maker Katmerciler. [Reuters] 

Iran said on 28 January that gas supplies had resumed. Reuters cited a Turkish official as saying that those levels were lower than the required volumes.  Iran cut gas flows for up to 10 days due to a technical problem.  [Reuters] 

(gc)

 

Bulgarian PM meets with North Macedonia counterpart in Skopje in effort to improve ties

Bulgaria and North Macedonia committed to improve bilateral ties during a meeting between the countries’ newly-elected premiers, a thawing of relations that could help facilitate trade and Skopje’s EU ambitions after years of political discord. 

Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his North Macedonian counterpart, Dimitar Kovacevski, met on 18 January in Skopje, where they agreed to form joint working groups and open a flight between Sofia and Skopje within two months. The working groups will focus on economic issues, infrastructure, European integration, trade, education, culture, and history.[BTA] [RadioFreeEurope].

Bulgaria also agreed to address North Macedonia by its short name, rather than by the Republic of North Macedonia as it previously did. The decision came after Skopje said in a letter to the UN that it had no territorial claims to Bulgaria. [BNR].

Although the two leaders expressed a desire to improve relations, they ultimately failed to reach a breakthrough on the Bulgarian policy of blocking EU accession talks with North Macedonia. [RFR/RL]

Following their meeting, Petkov said that good relations are a priority, which “will be measured in achieved steps and results.” Kovacevski said he would like Bulgaria to lift its opposition to the country’s EU talks. [RadioFreeEurope]. [Euractiv]

“I’m a huge optimist for the new dynamics in relations and can assure you that the results will be visible every week,” said Petkov, who received the mandate to form a government last month.  Kovacevski, who became prime minister this week, said “we have promised each other that we will use new energy to improve our relations with respect.” [RFR/RL]

In 2020, Bulgaria opposed North Macedonia’s EU accession talks because of a dispute over language, history and heritage. Its previous government under Boyko Borissov blamed North Macedonia for not complying with the Friendship Treaty signed in 2017, which was supposed to promote cooperation and alleviate disagreements.  

Bulgaria’s president, Rumen Radev, though has been slightly less sanguine. While he welcomed the talks, he said the “issues connected to the rights of our [Bulgarian] compatriots and the common historical and cultural past” should not be overlooked.[Nova]. 

The European Commission congratulated the two premiers for their diplomatic efforts. The US State Department supports the accession of North Macedonia into the EU. [RadioFreeEurope] [BTA].

(ib/gc)

 

France urges EU to expand trade in Africa as Macron calls for new deal with continent

France called on the EU to expand its trade ties with Africa after president Emmanuel Macron said in December that he wanted to build an economic and financial “New Deal” with the continent.

French minister for foreign trade Franck Riester said on 10 January that the EU-African partnership is an obvious choice for Europeans, emphasising the geographical proximity and the strong economic relations between the two regions. The European bloc is "the leading trade partner, the leading foreign investor and the leading development partner" of Africa, he said. [Euronews]

Macron said on 19-January that the EU is working with African countries toward a deal to improve access to coronavirus vaccines. In comments to the European Parliament, he said  he hoped that EU leaders would agree to a global license for coronavirus vaccines, clearing the barriers to gaining the capacity, intellectual property and technology Africa needs to manufacture its own vaccines. [Politico]

He described the EU-Africa relationship in December as “somewhat tired.” He made these comments when presenting France’s program before it assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. [Euronews][MedAfrica Times] 

France stressed the importance of renewing a partnership between the EU and Africa ahead of a summit between the two regions in Brussels. Heads of state and senior officials from the EU and African Union will meet from 17-18 February to take stock of the progress made by the two regions and determine new joint priorities for their common future and provide political guidance for further work. [UCLGA][Business Europe]

The two sides will discuss growth financing, health systems and vaccine production, agriculture and sustainable development, education, culture and vocational training, migration and mobility, private sector support and economic integration, peace, security and governance, and climate change and energy transition, digital and transport connectivity and infrastructure.

The new Euro-African partnership will focus on “the climate and digital transition” of the economies, European Trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said. A deal will include a focus on health, migration, peace, employment, and access to energy as set out by the European Commission. [Euronews]

 (ig/gc)

 

France: Paris recalls ambassador from Mali as it steps up pressure after junta scraps election timetable

France has recalled its ambassador to Mali after the country’s military government expelled him over what the junta called "outrageous" comments made by the French foreign minister as tension between the two countries escalated. Ambassador Joel Meyer was given 72 hours to leave. [BBC]

Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the Mali junta as "illegitimate" and "out of control." Earlier last month, Le Drian called for the EU to impose sanctions on Mali after the junta shelved a timetable for elections. [BBC][France 24]

Mali risks being "suffocated" unless the military junta lived up to its responsibilities and stopped seeking to "fool" the country's partners, Le Drian said in a 13 January interview with AFP. "We are going to propose applying these sanctions at a European level, both those against Malian leaders but also the economic and financial measures.’’ [France 24]

The EU’s special envoy for the Sahel, Emanuela Del Re, backed the calls for sanctions, but said that Mali needed to be kept “engaged and not isolated.” [France24][BBC]

French military operations have been ongoing in the Sahel region for nine years. Around 5,000 French troops are currently deployed in the Sahel to combat Islamic extremist groups linked to Al-Qaeda in the region.

Mali is currently under the control of a junta government after taking power in a coup in May last year. This coup was the second coup in the space of two years. The junta promised to hold elections this year to transition to a civilian Government but has recently broken this promise, suggesting instead that they remain in power for up to five years before scheduling elections.

Denmark pulled its troops out of Mali last month at the junta’s demand. Denmark’s Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said that the junta had sent out a public statement saying that Denmark was ‘not welcome in Mali’. Kofod, in response, made the decision to bring their troops home. [France24]

Separately, Russia has deployed troops to the northern city of Timbuktu to train Malian forces at a base vacated by French troops, Mali’s army spokesperson said on 7 January.  Mali said late last year that “Russian trainers” had arrived in the country, but Bamako and Moscow have so far provided few details on the deployment. [Al Jazeera]

There are allegations that the junta has been working with Russian fighters from the Wagner group, who have been seen operating in Mali. 

The EU has imposed sanctions on the group for ``serious human rights abuses’’ and a statement issued jointly by 15 Western countries condemned the deployment of the Wagner group, saying that it could ‘further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa’. Russia has denied links with the group, and Mali has made no statements on the situation [BBC] [AlJazeera]

(ig/gc)

 

Talks with Taliban on aid, women’s rights, as humanitarian crisis worsens

Three days of talks in Oslo between the Taliban, Western diplomats and other delegates about aid for Afghanistan amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in that country have been deemed as “successful” by Norway’s premier. [AP News]

The meeting was the first of its kind in Europe since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in the summer. [BBC]

The country has seen unemployment and food prices soar following the fall of the US-backed government in Kabul and the Taliban takeover. [BBC] Aid groups and international agencies estimate that over half of Afghans face severe hunger. [Al Jazeera]

Acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi praised the talks in the Norwegian capital, which concluded on 25 January. He told the Associated Press: “It was a very good trip. Such trips will bring us closer to the world.” [AP News]

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said the talks were “serious” and “genuine”, adding that the Taliban visit to Oslo did not provide “international recognition to the de-facto regime.” [AP News]

Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, one of the humanitarian organisations in the talks, called for an “end to sanctions hurting civilians.” [Norway Today]

Western powers, meanwhile, are demanding increased rights for Afghan women and girls before they agree to loosen sanctions. The Norwegian prime minister said there was a need to “see girls back in school in March, especially those above 12.” [AP News]

The Taliban has called for USD 10 billion of Afghanistan’s assets frozen by the United States and other Western countries to be released, but there is no agreement yet. [AP News]

(mh/pk)

 

Russia, Pakistan, keen to work on gas project

Russia and Pakistan are in talks to finalize plans for what would be a landmark visit by President Vladimir Putin to Islamabad later this year, the Express Tribune has reported, as both sides hope to launch a multibillion-dollar gas pipeline project.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan reportedly reiterated the invitation in a phone conversation with Russia’s Putin on 17 January. The two leaders are also expected to meet in Beijing on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. [Dawn]

The two men also discussed the status of the USD 2.5 billion PakStream Gas Pipeline project that will see the delivery of 12.3 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year from liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals in Karachi and Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to the north-eastern city of Lahore.

An agreement was originally signed in 2015, but the project was not implemented due to US and European sanctions against Russian state-owned conglomerate Rostec, as well as a dispute over pipeline transport fees. [AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]

Prior to the phone conversation, Pakistan’s energy minister on 15 January announced that negotiations were underway with Russia to build a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan to Pakistan. [The Express Tribune]

The planned pipeline marks Islamabad’s latest effort to strengthen connectivity with Kabul and Central Asia – but not the rest of South Asia. Last year, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan agreed on the construction of a USD 4.8 billion trilateral railway project connecting Mazar-e-Sharif, Pehswar and Kabul.

(lm/pk)

 

UK, Pakistan agree to ink pact on repatriation of criminals

Britain and Pakistan have agreed to finalize and sign agreements on the repatriation of convicted criminals. The understanding was reached at a meeting between Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed and British High Commissioner Christian Turner in Islamabad on 18 January. [The Express Tribune]

The signing of a repatriation agreement with London is part of Pakistan’s efforts to convince the UK to repatriate former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been residing in Britain since 2019 after a court granted him indefinite bail to seek medical treatment [AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1].

In Pakistan, Sharif is facing several corruption charges and is considered by the courts to have absconded. He is also facing sedition charges. [AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2, AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

The first round of negotiations on a criminal extradition treaty was held in October 2019. At a similar meeting in February last year, both countries advanced towards signing a deal after Interior Minister Rashid said that Islamabad did not intend to use such a treaty for politically-motivated extraditions. [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

(tj/lm/pk)

 

Britain, India, formally launch free-trade talks

Britain and India on 13 January formally launched talks on a free-trade deal expected to double their bilateral trade by 2030, as London seeks closer ties with New Delhi as a key pillar of its post-Brexit tilt to the Indo-Pacific region.

The two countries committed to seek a free-trade agreement last May during a meeting between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. That meeting replaced a trade visit Johnson cancelled amid surging COVID-19 cases in India. [AiR No. 19, May/2021, 2]

Britain’s main demands include removing hefty import duties on Scotch whisky and cars, which are currently at 150 percent and 125 percent respectively. London also hopes New Delhi can become a big customer of its green technology industry, and that existing service sector trade routes can be strengthened. India, in turn, reportedly wants to make it easier for Indians to get British visas. [GOV.UK]

The deal to boost two-way business by USD 38 billion a year by 2035 is reportedly being keenly pursued by Britain to make up for a significant setback to its commerce with the European Union, its biggest trading bloc, after Brexit. In light of this, New Delhi agreed to consider an interim agreement to “generate early benefits” within a year. [The Independent] [The Straits Times] 

(lm/pk)

 

Armenia’s president travels to UAE  to discuss regional security

Armenia’s President Armen Sarkissian travelled prior to his 23 January resignation [see Eastern Europe section] to the United Arab Emirates, a key-ally of the US, where he met with the Gulf country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. [Republic of Armenia Radio]

The two discussed regional security and economic cooperation,  including a November agreement with Masdar, a UAE energy company, to build a 200-megawatt solar photovoltaic plant in Armenia. Sarkissian updated Sheikh Abdullah on the situation in Artsakh, where Armenia fought a war with Azerbaijan in 2020, and the humanitarian situation caused by the war.  [Republic of Armenia Radio] [The National]

(gc)

 

EU tells Bangladesh trade benefits will continue after graduation from LDC status

Meeting with senior government officials, the European Union’s new ambassador to Bangladesh has assured Dhaka that trade benefits will continue even after the nation graduates from the Least Developed Country category in 2026. [Prothom Alo]

During the talks last month, the two sides discussed the next meeting of the EU-Bangladesh Business Climate Dialogue, the diversification of Bangladesh’s export products, foreign investment in Bangladesh’s logistics sector, capacity building, e-commerce, the environment, compliance issues and market access.

They also discussed the continuation of the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP) benefits to Bangladesh.

In a meeting earlier in January, Bangladesh sought the support of the German ambassador to Dhaka for the extension of the GSP scheme, which removes import duties from products entering the EU market from vulnerable developing countries  – on condition that human and labour rights, and environmental protection and good governance standards are respected. [AiR No. 2, January/2022, 2]

(sk/pk)

 

Czech parliament Speaker calls on Hungarians to ditch PM Orbán

The Speaker of the Czech parliament has sparked controversy by urging voters in regional neighbour Hungary to oust long-time nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in April elections.

Speaker Markéta Pekarová Adamová said in a Facebook post: “The Czechs have already expelled Babiš. I strongly hope that Hungarians will also succeed.” 

Czech former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, a billionaire populist and eurosceptic, was ousted in his country’s October parliamentary elections. Babiš was accused by a European Commission audit of breaching conflict of interest rules over his control of trust funds linked to his Agrofert business empire. [Reuters]

In her post on 8 January, Pekarová Adamová added: “It is important for the Czech Republic for Hungary to vote for change in April elections - just like us.” [Euractiv] [Bloomberg] 

Czech opposition leaders of various political hues called on Pekarová Adamová to resign over her comments. [Bloomberg] 

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala declined to comment, saying he did not want to “stir up the already heated atmosphere.” [Euractiv]

Hungary’s parliamentary elections take place on 3 April. Incumbent right-wing premier Orbán is an admirer of "illiberal democracy" who has repeatedly clashed with the European Union amid accusations that he has eroded democratic norms. Orbán, who was an ally of Babiš, will be up against a recently unified multi-party opposition alliance. [Politico] [Euractiv]

(sdo/pk)

 

UK Tory MP applauds news channel’s decision to play national anthem daily 

GB News, a right-leaning news channel in Britain, started playing on 18 January an instrumental version of the national anthem at 5.59 am every day on GB News Television and GB News Radio, a decision that MP Andrew Rosindell and other conservatives have welcomed. [Derby Telegraph][The Global Herald]

Rosindell responded by tweeting his support, saying: “A proud moment for British broadcasting. Thank you @GBNews.” Rosindell added on 6 January that national broadcaster BBC and other television companies should be encouraged to play the national anthem more often in the year of Queen Elizabeth’s platinum jubilee. [Derby Telegraph][The Global Herald]

Rosindell said that the singing of the national anthem is “something that provides a great sense of unity and pride in our nation.”

While the British were debating how often and where the national anthem should be played, daily, the French were arguing about the impact that the “woke” movement from the US was having on the French language.

The debate heated up around, in particular, the inclusion of the gender-neutral pronoun “iel” in French-language dictionary Le Petit Robert’s online edition. This combination of the male pronoun il and the female pronoun elle can be used for people who don’t identify as male or female, or whose gender is unknown. [IPS]

In a letter to the Académie Française, François Jolivet, a member of France’s governing party La République en Marche (LREM),  called on the body to prevent the imminent destruction of the French language by “woke ideology” and denied that  Le Petit Robert was a status of reference. First Lady Brigitte Macron explained that there are “two pronouns: il and elle.” [IPS]

(gc/pk)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

 
 

Belgium:  Some police unions call for national strike in February after talks fail to impress 

Some police unions are calling for a national strike on February 15 after the government on 28 January unveiled a new pay-and-conditions package for officers, who have criticized their low wages and uncertainty over pension schemes. The unions said they were unimpressed with the agreement after months of negotiations. [Politico] 

Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden said in a statement that the agreement includes a “substantial improvement of the status of almost 48,000 police officers,” as well as a 5 percent salary increase. This is the first rise since 2001. [Politico] 

She said a yearly budget of  EUR 120 million will be allocated to improve policing. She added that investments will be made in infrastructure, equipment and training, and 1,600 new inspectors will be hired. It will enter into force in January 2023. [Politico] 

Of the four unions taking part in the negotiations, two rejected it. The latter has already announced a strike on February 15. Raoul Moulin of the CSC union said they needed a budget of EUR 200 million per year. [Politico] 

(gc)

 

France: Macron causes political blow back by saying he wants to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated

Incumbent Emmanuel Macron generated criticism from the country’s opposition when he said that he wanted to “piss off” the unvaccinated, a statement that is likely to intensify a national debate about the government’s COVID-19 restrictions as France moves closer to presidential elections in April.  

“I'm not for pissing off the French ... Now the unvaccinated, I really want to piss them off,” Macron said in an interview in Le Parisien newspaper on 4 January. “And so, we're going to keep doing it, until the end. That’s the strategy.” He said the unvaccinated should no longer be able to go to restaurants, get a coffee or go to the theatre.  [CNN] [France24]

He made his comments while parliament was debating a bill over whether a stricter vaccine pass will take effect by the government's intended 15 January deadline. The debate was suspended immediately after his comments, though the government on 16 January made it legally necessary to be vaccinated to access cultural events, theme parks, ski lifts, eateries, bars and most forms of long-distance transport.

Macron’s chief opponent, Marine Le Pen, pushed back against Macron and his position, saying he was “unworthy” of being president.  “Even if one doesn’t share their choice, they have broken none of our country’s laws,” Le Pen told reporters. [CNN]

Le Pen will be running for the presidency for the third time. She is the candidate for the National Rally, a far-right party formerly known as the National Front, whose main campaign points comprise immigration and security. Le Pen is widely seen as Macron’s primary rival in the run up to the election. [EiR Monthly December]

Macron has still not yet formally announced his candidacy. In an interview with Le Parisien newspaper, he said he wants to run for re-election this year but has still not decided if he will even though he is ahead in the polls. "Once the health situation allows it and I have made everything clear -- inside myself and with respect to the political equation,” he will announce his decision, he said in the interview.  [France24]

Despite being vague about his intentions, Macron announced in October his plans for “France 2030,” a strategic initiative to invest EUR 30 billion into a range of sectors, including green energy, transport, health, and technology.  His announcement was viewed by some as an early, informal start to kick-off his re-election campaign. [EiR Monthly November]

Meanwhile, the left has selected another candidate to join an already crowded field of contenders. Christiane Taubira, formerly France’s justice minister under François Hollande’s government and known for her work on legalizing same sex marriage in France, said she will run. 

She joins five other candidates on the left, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is the left’s current most popular candidate according to polls, and the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo. [France24] [Politico]

(ib/gc)

 

France: Far-right candidate Zemmour fined EUR 10,000 over hate speech

Far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, a candidate in the upcoming presidential elections who is accused of being anti-Islam, was fined EUR 10,000 after being found guilty of hate speech. [BBC News]

When he announced his candidacy last month, he said he was running so “that our daughters don’t have to wear headscarves and our sons don’t have to be submissive.” The guilty verdict came after Zemmour described unaccompanied migrant children as “thieves,” “rapists” and “murderers”. [BBC News]

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France:  New COVID-19 restrictions imposed against those unvaccinated entering most public spaces 

France enforced new restrictions against citizens who are unvaccinated against COVID-19, banning them  from bars, restaurants, tourist attractions and sports venues, as the government reacted to a spike in cases in January. [AP]

The new law came into effect on 24 January requiring a “vaccine pass” that is central to the government’s anti-virus strategy. Previously, people had to show proof of a negative COVID test, a COVID vaccination or that they had recently recovered from the virus. Now, they must prove they are vaccinated. [France24][AP]

COVID-19 infections in France spiked in mid-January due to a surge in cases of the Omicron variant. France was registering more than 400,000 cases a day, making it Europe’s highest-ever daily coronavirus infection numbers. The number of daily cases has since dropped. [LaTimes].

Parliament and the Constitutional Council approved the vaccine a week early. It had briefly halted the debate about the vaccine pass after President Emmanuel Macron vowed to “piss off” the unvaccinated, a comment that spurred criticism. 

The decision to impose new restrictions led to small protests across France. Critics of the measure say the restrictions will impinge upon their daily freedoms. There were four rallies in Paris, which were largely attended by nationalist politician and anti-EU presidential candidate Florian Philippot. [The Straits Times]

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France: Watchdog fines Google, Facebook EUR 210m for use of cookies

A French regulator has fined Google and Facebook EUR 210 million in total for the use of cookies that allow web browsers to store information and provide targeted ads. [BBC]

Google and Facebook were fined EUR 150m and EUR 60m respectively, the Commission Nationale Informatique & Libertés said on 7 January. The social-media firms have three months to comply or face penalties of  EUR 100,000 for each day of delay. [BBC]

The regulator said that it had found that while the tech giants provided a virtual button to allow the immediate acceptance of cookies, there was no equivalent to refuse them as easily. [BBC]

Google said in response to the fine that “we understand our responsibility to protect… trust and are committing to further changes and active work with the CNIL in [the] light of this decision.” Facebook said that it was “reviewing” the decision and that “we continue to improve” the company’s cookie consent controls. 

(gc/pk)

 

France to provide EU researchers access to quantum machines

Paris has started a program to make quantum machines and supercomputers available to researchers and French and EU start-up companies as it seeks to sustain France's technological relevance. [Euractiv]

Government officials announced the launch of a new quantum computing platform to maximise accessibility, to be installed at the French Atomic Energy Commission's High-Performance Computing Centre. The platform has a total budget of EUR 170 million and is part of the EUR 1.8 billion national quantum strategy. [Euractiv]

(gc/pk)

 

France: Hackers threaten Justice Ministry with data dump if ransom not paid

Hackers from ransomware gang Lockbit 2.0 threatened to publish data they claimed to have hacked from the French justice ministry on 27 January. [Euractiv France].

They set 10 February as the deadline for when ransom should be paid or warned they would release a total of 9,859 files. The justice ministry said it had “immediately organised to carry out the necessary checks in conjunction with the competent services in this area.” [Euractiv France] 

Acteurs publics journalist Emile Marzolf wrote on Twitter that the cyberattack had been “confirmed to him by a source within the ministry.” Euractiv France confirmed that the ministry’s services detected technical traces of an intrusion. [Euractiv France] 

(gc)

 

France: Law firm reviews France’s anti-corruption laws, saying ‘times are changing (again)’

France has a bill submitted to the country’s national assembly that will dramatically change the legal framework underpinning the fight against corruption. Whether it passes, though, is uncertain, according to Philadelphia-based law firm Dechert. 

The new bill will dramatically change the current anti-corruption legislation, called Sapin II. When France enacted Sapin II, almost five years ago, the law was considered ground-breaking, Dechert wrote on 5 January in an article titled “Reforming France’s Anti-Corruption Laws: Times are Changing (Again!).” [Dechert]

The legislation then “introduced a number of important innovations, including the ability for companies to be offered and to negotiate French-style deferred prosecution agreements called Convention judiciaire d’intérêt public (CJIP), the broadening of the scope of certain criminal law provisions, and the creation of the French Anti-Corruption Agency (AFA),” Dechert said. [Dechert]

A July 2021 report prepared by two members of the French National Assembly, which included 50 recommendations, inspired the bill that was introduced at the National Assembly on 19 October 2021, Dechert wrote. The proposed bill will strengthen the legal framework underpinning the fight against corruption in many significant ways, it said.  [Dechert]

In its article, Dechert said the new bill will “dramatically change” the current Sapin II framework, providing additional protections for companies and their employees. It will also significantly increase obligations and risks for companies operating in France. [Dechert]

The proposed bill would significantly strengthen the enforcement of anti-corruption laws while also providing added protections for companies and their employees, Dechert said. [Dechert]

Companies would welcome some provisions, such as: the ability to access the case file when facing a preliminary investigation; the fact that all documents and information exchanged during the CJIP negotiation process will remain confidential; and the proposals to enhance individuals’ defence rights.  

But companies would also face significant increased obligations and risks, such as the creation of a new failure to prevent offence; and the extension of compliance obligations to companies operating in France that hit the triggering thresholds regardless of their place of incorporation. [Dechert]

“It remains to be seen whether the Bill as currently drafted will be adopted,” Dechert wrote. “If it is, companies will need to pay careful attention to their increased obligations, responsibilities and risks.” [Dechert]

(gc)

 

Germany: Court ruling against Syrian secret officer for crimes against humanity hailed as ‘historic’

A German court on 13 January convicted a former Syrian secret police officer of crimes against humanity for overseeing the abuse of detainees at a jail near Damascus a decade ago, a ruling the top United Nations human rights official described as "historic" after years of repression by the Syrian regime. 

The Higher Regional Court in Koblenz sentenced 58-year-old Anwar Raslan to life in prison in the world's first criminal trial on state-led torture in Syria. He was found  guilty of overseeing the murder of 27 people at the al-Khatib detention centre in Damascus, also known as "Branch 251", in 2011 and 2012.  [Daily Sabah] [Stars&Stripes] [VOA][Spiegel]

"This trial cast a much-needed, renewed spotlight on the kinds of sickening torture, cruel and truly inhuman treatment – including abject sexual violence – that countless Syrians were subjected to in detention facilities," the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, said. The “verdict should serve to spur forward all efforts to widen the net of accountability for all perpetrators of the unspeakable crimes that have characterised this brutal conflict,” she said. [OHCHR]

Ten years of civil war in Syria has left at least 350,000 dead, High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet told the Human Rights Council in September, noting that this total was an “under-count of the actual number of killings.” Her office, OHCHR, is processing information on alleged perpetrators, recording victims’ civilian or combatant status and the type of weapons used, Bachelet said. [UN]

As the head of Syria’s General Intelligence Directorate under the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, Raslan was responsible for multiple murders and torture of more than 4,000 prisoners in Damascus. Raslan claimed his innocence, saying he did not torture or give orders to do so. More than 80 witnesses testified against him though, leading to a guilty verdict. [Spiegel]

The trial started in April 2020. It was the first war crime case of the Syrian civil war in which a member of the Syrian government had to answer for their actions. [Deutsche Welle] It was made possible to convict Raslan before a German court by the principle of universal jurisdiction laid out in International criminal law. [Associated Press]

(yp/gc)

 

Germany: Economy loses EUR 350 bn since pandemic as consumer spending dips, investments fall

The German economy lost EUR 350 billion since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as consumer spending dipped and investment declined during the lockdown in Europe’s largest economy,  the German Economic Institute said. [Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft]

A full recovery will likely take years even if economic growth improves in 2022, the institute said on 23 January. Consumer confidence remains low and manufacturing is being impacted by global supply chain problems, it said. [EURACTIV] [Deutsche Welle]

The COVID-19 pandemic dented global and European economic growth as many governments imposed strict lockdowns to prevent the virus from spreading more widely. The International Monetary Fund expects that the pandemic will cost the global economy more than the estimated USD 12.5 trillion through 2024 as supply chain disruptions, inflation and tighter monetary policy throws “cold water on the recovery everywhere.”  [Reuters] 

The German economy is forecast to expand 3.6 percent this year, slower than previously forecast, the country’s Ministry of Economy and Planning said on 21 January.  This is lower than the 4.1 percent forecasted in October. [EURACTIV] [Spiegel] [Reuters]

The coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals expects the ongoing pandemic to strain businesses and supply bottlenecks for products, such as semiconductors, to persist, Reuters reported, citing a draft of the annual economic report. This will further restrict the growth.  [Reuters]

Germany is  also experiencing inflationary pressure as global supply chain bottlenecks persist due manufacturing slowdowns, mainly in China. The government predicts inflation to reach 3.3 percent on average this year, after it soared to 3.1 percent in 2021 from 0.5 percent a year earlier.  [Euronews]

(mb/gc)

 

Germany: President Frank Walter Steinmeier set for another term in office

Frank-Walter Steinmeier is set for another term as German president after his candidacy was backed by most of the country’s main political parties. [Politico][Deutsche Welle]

Despite speculation around a rival from the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance, no candidate has come forward.  The Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have also said they do not plan to nominate a candidate of their own before the parliamentary vote on 13 February. [Deutsche Welle] [Politico]

Steinmeier, who previously served as the country’s foreign minister before becoming president in 2017, is a “very good and highly respected Federal President who earned great merits for our country in his first term of office,” Green Party leaders said in a joint statement. “We are convinced that he will continue to support and guide our society on the difficult way out of the pandemic.” [Politico]

Christian Lindner, chairman of the FDP, described him as “an outstanding personality” who “has rendered outstanding services to the cohesion in our country in times of social polarization.” [Deutsche Welle][Politico]

The Left has put forward their own candidate, Gerhard Trabert, but he said he does not think he has a real chance of winning. He wants to use his candidacy to draw attention to poverty and social injustice. The right-wing populist AFD nominated Max Otte, a leader of the conservative “union of values” camp in the CDU, as their candidate. He has accepted the nomination. [Deutsche Welle]

(yp/gc)

 

Germany: Bundestag votes to use COVID-19 credit for climate fund after auditors question constitutionality

The German Bundestag has ruled in favour of allocating EUR 60 billion in unused COVID-19 relief credit to the energy and climate fund after the constitutionality of the proposal had been questioned by some members of the German Court of Auditors and the country’s opposition parties. 

The vote on 27 January received 382 votes in favour from representatives of the coalition of Social Democrats (SDP), the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). The proposal was opposed by 283 representatives of  the Christian Democratic Union, the Left and the far-right AfD. [Deutscher Bundestag]

Christoph Meyer, a member of the FDP, said during the debate that the relocation of funds was necessary to strengthen the economy in a sustainable and future-oriented way. Dennis Rohde, a member of the SDP, said the relocation was a way to prevent long-term consequences to the German economy, which has lost EUR 350 billion due to the pandemic so far. [Deutscher Bundestag] [Euractiv]

Representatives of the CDU said the goal of fighting the consequences of the pandemic was an “excuse” to use the funds for climate policy goals. The proposal was against the constitution, said members of the opposition, both from the CDU and the AfD. The CDU will file a lawsuit with the federal constitutional court to halt the allocation of the funds. [Tagesschau] [Deutscher Bundestag] 

Ahead of the Bundestag decision, some members of the German Court of Auditors questioned the constitutionality of Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s plan to allocate the unused COVID-19 relief credit for the country’s energy and climate fund. [EURACTIV] [Süddeutsche Zeitung]

The German Court of Auditors was divided on 10 January over whether the funds could be redirected to help meet the country’s commitment of reducing emissions by 65 percent in 2030 from a 1990 baseline. Some auditors found it to be unconstitutional, while others did not. [Deutscher Bundestag]

(mb/gc)

 

Germany: Chairman of far-right AfD quits party over ideological differences

Jörg Meuthen, chairman of the far-right AfD since 2015, said on 28 January that he will leave the party due to ideological differences. [ZDF] [Tagesschau] [EURACTIV]

Meuthen had wanted the party to take a more moderate course while still integrating the radical factions within it. The failed “reformation” of the AfD was one of the main reasons  he decided to leave the party, he said.  

His co-leader Tino Chrupalla said Meuthen had distanced himself from the party and that his departure would end its internal differences. [Zeit] [EURACTIV] [Tagesschau]

The ongoing investigation of party donations did not influence his decision to leave the party, Meuthen said. The European Parliament had recommended on 27 January to strip Meuthen, a representative in the far-right faction Identity and Democracy, of his parliamentary immunity. [ZDF] [EURACTIV]

(mb/gc)

 

Ireland: Government to impose ‘zero tolerance’ approach to gender violence after shocking murder

The Irish government said will implement a “zero tolerance” approach as part of its efforts to combat gender violence after tens of thousands attended vigils across the country in January to mourn the brutal murder of a young woman. [Irish Independent]

Justice Minister Helen McEntee said that the government will publish by the beginning of March a new strategy to tackle domestic, sexual and gender-based violence. “We’re building on the progress that has been made and we have made progress, but we’re looking at it slightly differently. We have set a clear goal – zero tolerance, she said.”  [Irish the Independent]

Ashling Murphy, a 23-year-old primary school teacher and traditional musician, was murdered on 12 January in an incident that shocked the country. She was attacked in broad daylight while jogging along the canal in Tullamore, County Offaly.

Prime Minister Micheál Martin led tributes to Murphy in the Irish parliament, stating her murder must act as a “watershed” in how Irish society deals with violence against women.

“We need to eliminate this from our society, as well as all aspects of the undermining of women in a misogynistic or any other form. That takes a multifaceted approach embracing prevention, protection, security and education.” [Irish Examiner]

Official figures for 2020 show that there were over 2,000 cases of sexual violence reported to the police and 79% of victims were women. However, as not all cases are reported to the police, the true number is believed to be much higher. Figures also show that in 2019, 99.4% of suspects of sexual violence were men. [BBC]

Women’s Aid, a national organisation working to combat domestic violence, notes that this case is somewhat exceptional. According to their figures, 244 women have been killed in Ireland since 1996, in 87% of resolved cases the perpetrator was a man known to the victim. In just 13% of cases, the perpetrator was a stranger. [Irish Times]

(nr/gc)

 

United Kingdom: Scandal-hit PM fights for job amid ‘lockdown party’ probes

After a scandal-ridden few months, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a police investigation and new calls to resign – now from within his own party – as open rebellion threatens to topple his leadership.

London’s Metropolitan Police have launched a criminal investigation into a string of parties Johnson is alleged to have attended in breach of COVID-19 rules – rules his own government imposed and which have been in effect for almost two years.

Meanwhile, Susan Gray, a leading civil servant, has published an “update” on the forthcoming findings of an inquiry into the parties. Parts of the report released on 31 January condemned “failures of leadership and judgement” in the Prime Minister’s Office. [Politico Europe][Guardian]

The police investigation has delayed the release of the full report and caused “sensitive” information to be taken out. Gray herself said she was now “extremely limited” in what she can make public about the alleged gatherings. The police probe has itself become a political scandal, with opposition MPs angered that they cannot read Gray’s full report. [BBC News] [Journal] [Guardian]

Johnson’s latest woes were kicked off by yet another “party scandal” that has come his way. 

As Europe in Review previously reported, a series of similar affairs have been putting pressure on him. The most recent scandal to emerge may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. [EiR Monthly January 2022] 

This time, a leaked email from Johnson’s principal private secretary appeared to offer an invitation to over 100 Downing Street staff for a “bring your own booze” party at No. 10 in May 2020, which Johnson himself is alleged to have attended. [Irish Times] [Washington Post]

Johnson has repeatedly rejected calls to resign, while his spokesman said the premier does not believe he broke the law. [Reuters]

But the latest revelations appeared to be a bridge too far for some members of Johnson’s governing Conservative Party. A group of 20 Tory MPs reportedly met to discuss leading an effort to remove Johnson as leader. 

For a Conservative Party leadership contest to be triggered, 54 letters of opposition need to be submitted to the chairman of the party’s 1922 Committee, which is made up of all Conservative MPs in parliament who do not hold positions in the government. [Sunday Times] [Politico Europe]

Johnson has also made a high-profile opponent in Douglas Ross, the leader of the Conservative Party in Scotland. Ross said: “I have to say that [Johnson’s] position is no longer tenable.” Ross was considered an ally of Johnson until recently. His comments signal that opposition to the premier within his own party is gaining strength. [Politico Europe]

This rebellion may also be driven by the Conservatives’ faltering performance in the polls.

The Tories are now firmly behind the opposition Labour Party, with one survey showing Johnson’s party 6 percentage points behind – a stark contrast to the wide lead they enjoyed over Labour for most of Johnson’s tenure. [Guardian] [Daily Express]

While prominent Conservative MPs have spoken against Johnson after the release of Gray’s “update”, such deputies remain a minority within the governing party. [BBC News]

Meanwhile, for around half of Conservative Party members, Johnson is to blame for the party’s sinking popularity. However, it will be up to his colleagues in parliament to determine whether he continues as prime minister. [Sky News]

(wb/pk)

 

United Kingdom: Truss hopes for ‘significant progress’ on Northern Ireland post-Brexit agreement

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said she hopes to see “significant progress” on a deal with the EU on a post-Brexit arrangement for Northern Ireland by the end of February as both sides pick up efforts  to find a solution to a protocol agreement that is viewed as disruptive to trade. 

“What I want is a deal that works for everyone,” Truss said in Belfast after meeting business and political leaders. “We are making progress, we're having constructive talks, I want to make significant progress by February.” [BBC] [Guardian]

The British government has been attempting to renegotiate the Northern Ireland Protocol, a deal it made with the EU in 2019.  Under the agreement, Northern Ireland remains in the EU's single market for goods. This has led to new obligations and regulations on Northern Irish businesses when importing goods from Great Britain. [BBC]

Truss told members of parliament on 25 January that  she believes “there is a deal to be done” to resolve the deadlock over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit arrangements. She acknowledged the “urgency of the situation,”  adding that the UK has been holding “holding intensive talks with the EU to resolve the very real issues there are for traders in GB and Northern Ireland.” [Knutsford Guardian]

A day before her comments to parliament, Truss travelled to Brussels to hold talks with her EU counterpart,  European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic. They failed to deliver an agreement on Northern Ireland but Sefcovic told reporters that a “timely agreement” could soon be hammered out.

A joint statement by Truss and Sefcovic said their meeting was “constructive.” They also agreed to meet again before the end of January.  

Earlier in the month, Truss reiterated the UK position during talks with Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney. Truss said that the UK is seeking the removal of the Court of Justice of the European Union from its oversight role over the protocol and a “radical reduction” in regulatory checks between Britain and Northern Ireland established by the protocol. [Guardian]

After her predecessor David Frost resigned in December as the UK minister in charge of Brexit negotiations, Truss took up the role. [Politico]

She has repeated the UK threat to trigger Article 16, a provision of the protocol that allows for its unilateral suspension, if “economic, societal or environmental difficulties” emerge.  This echoes Frost’s threat to do the same in 2021.  [EiR Monthly November 2021] [Irish Times]

Speaking to Sky News, the EU’s ambassador to Britain Joao Vale de Almeida took a dim view of the  remarks she wrote on 9 January in the Sunday Telegraph. Almeida said: “We’ve heard this before, so we’re not surprised. We are not too impressed.” [Sky News][Telegraph][Press Reader]

Sefcovic has described the Northern Ireland protocol as “the most complicated part” and “the foundation” of the Brexit withdrawal agreement the sides agreed to in 2019. [Irish Independent] 

Truss is an influential figure in the UK’s ruling Conservative Party. She is widely seen as a potential successor to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, should mounting scandals force him to resign. [EiR Monthly January 2022]

Truss, however, has since given Johnson a public vote of confidence. Despite being a contender for his job, Truss has been described as loyal to the prime minister. [Sky News] 

However, observers warn that she may have been handed a poison chalice in the Foreign Secretary portfolio.

Speaking to The Guardian, one former foreign office official predicted that “Ireland is going to kill her” and warned that failure in negotiations with the EU would cause the right wing of her party to “abandon her, and that’s the very constituency she needs for the leadership.” [Guardian]

(wb/gc)

 

United Kingdom: Signatures flood in for petition seeking Blair’s knighthood to be rescinded

Hundreds of thousands of people have signed a change.org online petition calling for former premier Sir Tony Blair’s appointment by the Queen to the Order of the Garter to be rescinded over his domestic record and the Iraq War. Nearly 700,000 had signed it by 5 January. [Yahoo]

In Blair’s defence, supporters highlighted his public service reforms and that he won three general elections. The prime minister’s spokesman said: “Appointments to the Order of the Garter are a matter for Her Majesty the Queen, there is no involvement of the Prime Minister or government, so it wouldn’t be one for me to comment on.” [Yahoo]

(gc/pk)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

 

Denmark: Ex-defence minister charged with leaking state secrets; former intel chief arrested

Danish former defence minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen has been arrested on suspicion of leaking state secrets amid a growing intelligence scandal. [Euronews]

Frederiksen, who served as defence minister from 2016 to 2019, was charged after reports of the US spying on other countries using data provided by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE). [Financial Times] [Euronews].

Danish public service broadcaster DR reported last year that the FE had helped the US National Security Agency gather intelligence on European politicians, including then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, from 2012 to 2014. [BBC News]

The NSA was said to have accessed text messages and phone conversations by tapping into Danish internet cables in cooperation with the FE. [BBC News]

Frederiksen has been charged under a section of the country’s criminal code that includes treason, and carries a maximum punishment of 12 years in jail. [Reuters]

Frederiksen said in a statement issued through his centre-right Liberal party on January 14: “I could never dream of doing anything that could harm Denmark or Denmark’s interests.” [Reuters].

Former foreign intelligence chief Lars Findsen has also been detained for allegedly leaking top-secret information. Findsen described the charges as "insane" and announced he would be pleading not guilty. [BBC News]

(mh/pk)

 

Norway: Far-right mass murderer Breivik seeks early release

Anders Brehig Breivik, the Norwegian far-right mass murderer behind the country’s worst peacetime massacre, has appealed in a court to be released on parole after spending 10 years in prison. [Reuters]

Breivik is serving a 21-year sentence for a June 2011 bomb and gun attack in which he killed 77 people. [The Guardian]

At his court hearing in a Norwegian prison on January 19, he said he would continue his fight for white supremacy and Nazi dominance, albeit via peaceful means. [Reuters]

Oeystein Storrvik, Breivik’s defence lawyer, said: “According to the law, there is no obligation that you have to be remorseful. So it is not the main legal point. The legal problem is whether he is dangerous.” [Euronews]

On the final day of the three-day parole hearing, lead prosecutor Hulda Karlsdottir said it was her “clear view” that Breivik was a poor candidate for release. [Euronews]

The court verdict will not be announced for several weeks. If unsuccessful, Breivik can apply again for a new parole hearing in a year's time. [Sky News]

(mh/pk)

 

Sweden: PM criticised after hiring illegal cleaner

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has come under criticism over reports that a house cleaner she employed was detained by police for working in the country illegally. [The Local]

At the prime minister's villa in Nacka, near Stockholm, police arrested a young woman from Nicaragua who was supposed to be deported as an illegal immigrant in the autumn of 2021. [BBC News]

Andersson, a Social Democrat who has called for stricter policies on undocumented immigration, said she was given false information by the cleaning company. [Washington Post]

She assured the public that she had no idea about the illegal status of the worker, telling daily newspaper Expressen: "Even those of us who want to do the right thing can fall foul of dodgy operators." [RT]

It is unclear whether the cleaner was present in the prime minister's house when the police arrived on 21 December. [BBC News] 

The leader of the opposition Moderate Party, Tobias Billstrom, pointed out on Twitter that in the UK, immigration minister Mark Harper had to resign in 2014 after it was discovered that he had employed a cleaner who did not have the right to work. [BBC News]

Andersson, who was appointed the country’s first female prime minister in late November, has previously called for a stricter stance on Sweden’s liberal immigration policy. [EiR Monthly January 2022]

(mh/pk)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

 
 

Austria: In the vanguard of battle against COVID, Vienna brings in mandatory shots

Austria has made vaccination against COVID-19 mandatory for adult citizens. The move is a first in the EU, where governments fearful of the political cost have been hesitant about taking such a bold step, despite spiralling coronavirus infections.

Austria’s governing conservative-Green coalition secured broad backing for the new rules in a parliamentary vote on 20 January. People who have recovered from COVID are exempt, as are pregnant women and those who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons. [Euractiv]

Thousands took to the streets in several Austrian cities to protest. The toughed rules were unveiled by Chancellor Karl Nehammer on 16 January despite reports that, due to technical complications, the implementation of mandatory vaccines would have to be delayed until April. [Euractiv]

Nehammer told Austrians that "this is not about the battle of vaccinated versus unvaccinated" but a move designed to underline that "vaccination is the best guarantee for us to live together in freedom." [Politico] 

After an initial grace period, Austrians randomly checked and found not to be inoculated will after 15 March face a fine ranging from EUR 600 to EUR 3,600. Depending on how the epidemic progresses, the government could then decide to send unvaccinated people an appointment for a shot, and impose automatic fines for those who fail to turn up. [Euractiv]

Karoline Edtstadler, a cabinet minister responsible for constitutional issues, said people could be fined up to four times a year. She added there was no provision for Austrians to be given prison sentences instead of paying fines. [Euronews with AP]

(pk)

 

Austria: Ex- Chancellor Kurz joins anti-racism NGO

Former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who opposed Austria accepting asylum seekers from a refugee camp in Greece and who quit last year amid a corruption scandal, has been appointed co-chairman of an international anti-racism NGO. [Politico]

Kurz has joined the European Council on Tolerance and Reconciliation, which describes its aims as fighting "such evils as extremism, racism, antisemitism and xenophobia." The NGO’s other co-chairmen include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. [Deutsche Welle] [EuObserver]

Kurz appears to be a controversial choice for his new job. In 2017, he struck a coalition agreement with the anti-immigration Freedom Party, after which Austria became the only western European nation with a far-right party in government. [Reuters]

Young and ambitious, 35-year-old Kurz was once the darling of European conservatives and enjoyed a meteoric career. He resigned as chancellor in October amid accusations that he used taxpayers’ money to pay for manipulated polls published in a newspaper in order to show him in a good light. [EiR Monthly December 2021] He denied wrongdoing but in early December announced he was quitting politics.

(pk)

 

Croatia: Extra remote weapon stations ordered for armoured vehicles

A deal worth USD 1.8 million between the Croatian Ministry of Defence and Israeli firm Elbit Systems Land and C4I has been agreed upon, containing orders for numerous remote weapons stations for armoured vehicles.

In 2017, Croatia awarded Elbit a contract worth USD 14.9 million to supply remote weapons stations for armoured vehicles originally delivered between 2008 and 2012. That order was not sufficient enough to equip the entire Croatian armoured vehicle fleet.

According to Shephard Defence Insight, there are 126 armoured vehicles in the Croatian Army inventory that are expected to be out of service by 2028. The Croatian defence ministry did not disclose the delivery timeframe for the remote weapons stations. [Shephard Media]

(mh/pk)

 

Croatia: Population shrinks nearly 10% in last decade

Croatia’s population has over the past decade dropped by nearly 400,000. Amid a shortage of opportunities for young people and a static economy, Croatians have migrated across Europe to seek a better life for themselves and their families, according to the Croatian Statistics Bureau. [bne.Intellinews] [Euractiv with AFP] [TheNews]. 

To tackle the problem, the centre-right conservative government has launched an initiative that encourages Croatian expatriates in the European Union to return to their home country and create their own business, with a sweetener of up to EUR 26,000 to start them off. [Euractiv]

According to projections by the United Nations, Croatia’s population is set to shrink from the current 3.8 million to 2.5 million by the end of the century. [Euractiv]

A wave of migration was triggered when Croatia joined the EU in 2013.

(sdo/pk)

 

Czech Republic: New governing coalition wins confidence vote

A conservative-led government won a confidence vote on 13 January in the lower house of the Czech parliament, after elections in October saw populist Eurosceptic premier Andrej Babiš ousted from power. [Euronews] [kvia/AP] 

Every new government in the Czech Republic must win such a vote of confidence. The result was 106-87 in favour of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s administration. The government was formed after two coalitions comprising five parties in total jointly gained 108 of 200 seats in the lower chamber. [Euronews] [Independent] [kvia/AP]

This political partnership has internal divisions on many issues such as same-sex marriage, the adoption of the euro and climate change, but all parties agree on remaining part of the European Union and NATO. [Independent]

Fiala said: “We’re not promising anything that we’re not sure we can fulfil.” [Euronews]

Among the priorities of the government is to address a recent cascade in the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. A new part of the government’s scheme to crack down on surges in Omicron is to make it mandatory for all private company employees to test themselves twice a week. [Euronews]

As many businesses struggle with staff absences due to Covid-19, Fiala’s government has decided to shorten the isolation period for those who have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive from 14 days to five. [Euronews] [Daily Sabah] 

(sdo/pk)

 

Hungary: MEPs, NGOs call for close monitoring of key April election

A group of MEPs and Hungarian NGOs have called for close, independent monitoring of Hungary’s April parliamentary election amid fears that the opposition will not have a level playing field. The ballot is expected to be closely fought and one that will decide whether the country returns to the European mainstream or edges closer to Russia and China. [Politico] [Euractiv]

President János Áder has announced that the election will be held on 3 April. The vote will see an alliance of recently united opposition groups attempting to oust the ruling right-wing Fidesz party along with long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly clashed with the European Union amid accusations that he has eroded democratic values.

To lead the battle against the premier, a group of six opposition parties last year picked conservative mayor Péter Márki-Zay, who has accused Orbán of being a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has criticised the Hungarian prime minister for drifting too close to China. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

In the run-up to the election, more than 60 MEPs from various political groups wrote a joint letter to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) asking for a full-scale monitoring mission in Hungary. They cited “concern that the elections might not be held to the highest democratic standards.” [Euractiv]

Hungary’s Justice Minister Judit Varga accused the MEPs of trying to influence the result of the April ballot. [Politico]

Meanwhile, 20 Hungarian NGOs have requested a full-scale rather than a limited monitoring mission by the OSCE. A mission of that kind would be a first by the OSCE in an EU member state. The NGOs said there was a lack of public confidence in the fairness of the vote, adding that Hungarian electoral rules have been changed to favour the ruling party, while pro-government forces control the media, and public funds have been used for campaigns to build up support for the governing right-wingers. [Euractiv]

 (pk)

 

Poland: Liberals worried as MPs tighten control over schools

Polish lawmakers have approved a disputed education bill which critics say aims to enforce a right-wing ideological agenda in classrooms and stigmatise teaching on LGBTQ+ issues.

Under legislation passed by parliament on 13 January, extracurricular activities run by NGOs in schools will have to be approved by government-appointed overseers, whose powers will be extended. [Euractiv] Such supervisors will be able to move for the dismissal of head teachers who fail to follow instructions, Polish state news agency PAP reported. [TheNews.pl] 

Opponents of the law say it will trigger a purge of liberal views during lessons, limit information for young people on reproductive rights, and centralise control over schools in a way reminiscent of the communist era. The rules still have to be approved by the president to come into force.

Education Minister Przemyslaw Czarnek has said the new rules are needed to “protect children from moral corruption.” Czarnek has been criticised for his ultra-conservative and often unorthodox views, including a pronouncement that “LGBT ideology” comes from “the same roots as Nazism” and that those “promoting deviancy” do not have the same rights as “normal people”. [Notes From Poland]

Critics say that Poland’s governing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which swept to power in 2015 and won a second term four years later, has been striving to place all public institutions, including schools, under political control. Law and Justice has also been accused by the opposition and many EU politicians of demonising the LGBTQ+ community, liberals and left-wingers as part of a drive to root out what the ruling party sees as a threat to traditional Polish Catholic values.

(pk)

 

Poland: PM slams ‘digital censorship’ as Facebook removes right-wing party’s profile

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has condemned “digital censorship” as a powerful threat to democracy after Facebook shut down the profile of a right-wing opposition party it accuses of  hate speech and spreading misinformation about COVID-19.

Facebook’s move “hit at the basic democratic values” of freedom of speech, said Morawiecki, whose own ruling nationalist party has been repeatedly accused by critics of eroding democracy and attempting to muzzle independent media. [EiR Monthly January 2021]

Morawiecki added that despite having clashed with the opposition Confederation party on previous occasions, he “does not agree” with the taking away of its voice. [Polsat News]  [AP News]

The Confederation’s Facebook profile was shut down on 5 January after the social media giant accused it of violating community standards. A spokesman for Facebook’s parent company Meta said that it had issued several warnings prior to blocking the account – a claim the Confederation denies. [Politico] [Euractiv]

The Confederation party had one of the largest shares of online followers among Polish political groups, and the removal of its account prompted concerns from the Polish government of “political meddling” by online platforms in the lead-up to election cycles across Europe. Secretary of State for cybersecurity Janusz Cieszyński on 5 January said: “This is not ok in a modern democracy, regardless of one’s political views. We have to unite against political meddling by VLOPs (very large online platforms) with elections in several EU countries coming soon.” [Euractiv] [Politico]

Polish right-wingers have lashed out in the past at moves to block their online presence. They have claimed social media giants are trying to enforce a liberal agenda and muzzle right-wing views.

Confederation MPs Krzysztof Bosak and Artur Dziambor said on 11 January that a new Facebook page would be launched on behalf of the party’s parliamentary group, while vowing to continue to fight for the unblocking of the party’s official profile and threatening legal action against Facebook. [Polsat News]

(ek/pk)

 

Poland: Charges dismissed against writer accused of insulting president

A Warsaw court has discontinued the trial of a writer who called Polish President Andrzej Duda a “moron” in a ruling seen by some as a victory for free speech. [Euractiv] [Euronews] [TVN24]

Jakub Żulczyk faced a potential three-year prison sentence for insulting the head of state in a Facebook post in November 2020, but a judge said that a conviction could have contravened the principle of freedom of speech and prevented criticism of elected authorities. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

Announcing his decision on 10 January, Judge Tomasz Julian Grochowicz added that holding public office “must involve a larger risk of public criticism.” [Euractiv] [Euronews]

The decision to dismiss the case was welcomed by supporters of the freedom of speech. However, the country’s ruling right-wingers criticised the verdict, with Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta saying that it “disrupts public debate” and “legitimises hate speech”. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

The office of President Duda – who hails from the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party – said the charges against Żulczyk were brought by a private complainant and not requested by the head of state. [Euronews]

Żulczyk had published a statement criticising Duda after the 2020 US presidential elections, following a message from Duda to his American counterpart Joe Biden. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

The Polish president had congratulated Biden on his “successful presidential campaign” and said that Poland would “await the nomination by the Electoral College”. Many said the message indicated that Duda was hopeful that Donald Trump could still be certified as the winner of the US election. [Euractiv] [Euronews]

Żulczyk said his criticism of Duda reflected the writer’s “care about the country’s fate”, while Judge Grochowicz added that criticism of the head of state should not be penalised when “its goal is to evaluate the manner in which the president performs his public tasks”. [Euractiv] [TVN24]

Critics have previously raised concern over Poland’s laws on insults, which criminalise offending or insulting religions, heads of state and state symbols. Guilty verdicts under these laws usually result in sentences consisting of community service or fines. Żulczyk had said that he suspected he was “the first writer in this country in a very long time to be tried for what he wrote”. [Euronews] [BBC News] [The Guardian]

(ek/pk)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

 
 

Italy: President re-elected as parties fail to agree on successor, exposing rift

Italian President Sergio Mattarella was on 29 January re-elected for a second term after a week of multiple voting rounds failed to produce a compromise-candidate successor, exposing deep divisions in the country’s ruling coalition. [Reuters] [The Guardian] [Politico]

Party chiefs persuaded 80-year-old Mattarella to serve a second seven-year term, even though he had said he wanted to leave office. His decision averts the prospect of early general elections.

Mattarella told the nation in a televised statement from the presidential palace that he could not let his personal wishes triumph over a “sense of responsibility” as Italy was experiencing a “grave health, economic and social emergency” amid the COVID-19 pandemic. [AP]

Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who has widely been credited with restoring equilibrium in Italy after he took the helm in 2021 after years of political and economic tumult, had urged Mattarella to remain in his post “for the good and stability of the country,” British daily The Guardianreported.

Draghi had himself been seen by many as frontrunner for president, but Italy’s ruling parties were wary of backing him amid fears his departure from the prime minister’s post would trigger an early election. [The Guardian] Finding a replacement premier who could command the same governing majority would have been difficult. [Politico]

In Italy's political system, the president has a largely ceremonial function but has the power to approve the dissolution of parliament, pick a new prime minister and deny mandates to weak coalitions. That means he plays a key role at times of political crisis. [BBC] Governments in Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, survive around a year on average. [Reuters]

Relations between the political parties in Draghi’s broad governing coalition worsened during the presidential election process as the failure to find a consensus figure who could replace Mattarella brought mutual recrimination. [Reuters]

Draghi will now need to try to rebuild his unwieldy coalition, which will not be easy after the breakdown in trust, Politico reported.

(pk)

 

Italy mandates COVID vaccines for over-50s

With Italian hospitals under pressure amid a steep rise in COVID cases, the government has changed vaccination rules, requiring everyone over 50 to get vaccinated.

Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta said the move, introduced on 6 January, put Italy at the forefront of European countries cracking down on those refusing to be inoculated. [Euronews]

The aim is to protect the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Health Minister Roberto Speranza said that two-thirds of Italian COVID-19 patients in intensive care units were unvaccinated. 

The change in rules was supported by ministers but divided the political parties that make up Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s broad coalition. [The Guardian]

The new measures are among the toughest vaccine mandates in Europe. Non-compliance will result in a fine of EUR 600. 

Meanwhile, Austrian lawmakers have backed a move making vaccination against COVID-19 compulsory, a step that is a first in the EU.

(hm/pk)

 

Malta: More protection for free press planned

The Maltese government is planning to embed increased protection for the freedom and pluralism of the media in the country’s constitution, and new laws to shield journalists from defamation cases and lawsuits aimed at muzzling criticism. [Politico]

The planned legislative changes include amending the constitution to entrench the principle of free media, and an anti-SLAPP provision to protect journalists from vexatious foreign lawsuits. [Times of Malta]

SLAPP suits, or strategic lawsuits against public participation, are cases aiming to pressurise, intimidate or muzzle critics by saddling them with the costs of a legal defence.

The changes are a response to recommendations from a public inquiry into the murder of investigative anti-corruption journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia in a 2017 car bombing. The killing in the small EU country sent shockwaves throughout Europe. [Politico] [France 24]

The independent inquiry found last July that the Maltese state had to bear responsibility after creating a "culture of impunity" emanating from the highest levels of government. [France 24] [Reuters]

(pk)

 

Portugal: Socialist Party wins majority in parliament, paving way for action on slowing economy

The Portuguese on 30 January voted the centre-left Socialist Party into power, giving it the clout to resolve the political and financial uncertainty triggered by the failure of a key budget bill amid a stalled economy.  [Euractiv]

Antonio Costa’s Socialist Party increased its number of seats to 117 from 108 in the 230-seat chamber, its first absolute majority since 2005. The main opposition party, the centre right PSD, won about 28 percent of the seats. [Euractiv][SCMP]

“An absolute majority doesn’t mean absolute power,” Costa said in his victory speech. “It doesn’t mean to govern alone. It’s an increased responsibility.”  [Euractiv] 

Costa, 60, will oversee an economy that is struggling to recover after shrinking 8.4 percent in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt tourism and other key businesses. In April, the government said that the EU pandemic recovery plan will have an economic impact of EUR 22 billion in Portugal through 2025. [Euractiv][SCMP]

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on 5 December formally ordered the dissolution of parliament, a month after announcing that he would be calling the elections two years ahead of schedule. [EiR Monthly January 2021]

His decision came after lawmakers threw out the draft budget for 2022 put forward by Costa’s minority Socialist government, ending six years of relative political stability. The Communists and Left Bloc parties, who had been allies of the government, said Costa favoured deficit cuts over investment in public health and increased protection for employees. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

Opinion polls suggested ahead of the elections that the centre-left Socialist Party would win with a significant lead over the main opposition, but without gaining a parliamentary majority. That would have meant further political uncertainty, which could hamper projects funded by the European Union’s pandemic recovery plan and impact Portugal's economic growth. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

(gc/pk)

 

Portugal: Probe into how billionaire Abramovich gained citizenship

Authorities in Portugal responsible for nationality matters have launched an internal inquiry into how Russian-born billionaire Roman Abramovich was granted citizenship of the country.

Abramovich, who owns London football club Chelsea, was granted Portuguese citizenship in April 2021 through a programme that grants residency to descendants of Sephardic Jews. Originating from communities in the Iberian Peninsula, Sephardic Jews were expelled from Portugal centuries ago. [Forbes]

This is the second such investigation, amid criticism from activists and politicians who say the Portuguese law must be reviewed as they suspect it is being used by oligarchs to get a foothold in the EU. [Reuters]

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny posted tweets accusing Portuguese officials of taking bribes in return for granting Abramovich citizenship. Portugal’s foreign minister, Augusto Santos Silva, has denied the claims. [Reuters] [Portugal Resident] 

Portuguese journalist Daniel Oliveira claimed on radio station TSF that Abramovich’s Sephardic roots are “not clear,” citing the limited presence of Sephardic Jews in Russia. [The Times of Israel] [Portugal Resident]

A spokeswoman for Abramovich said he and his staff “welcome any review as it will only demonstrate the citizenship was obtained in accordance with the rules.” [Reuters]

(hm/pk)

 

Spain suggests COVID-19 should be seen as endemic like the flu

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said it may be time to start seeing COVID-19 as an “endemic disease rather than a pandemic.” His country is the first in the European Union to suggest changing how the coronavirus is monitored, so that the approach is like that to the flu.

Spain’s COVID-19 cases were last month at their highest since the pandemic began, with a record 179,125 fresh cases on 12 January. [Worldometer] However, this hasn’t translated into the rise in coronavirus-related deaths that were seen last year. 

Spain has in past months debated the high societal and economic costs of lockdowns. [Politico] The government is now considering changing how it tracks the pandemic's evolution to use a method similar to how it follows influenza, without recording every case and without testing all people presenting symptoms. [Reuters] Sánchez said: “We are going to have to learn to live with it as we do with other viruses.” [The Olive Press]

However, the World Health Organisation has expressed opposition to the idea that the coronavirus can be monitored as an endemic. Its director in Europe, Hans Kluge, said that COVID-19 cannot yet be considered an endemic disease. [El País]

More than 80 percent of the Spanish population was fully inoculated against COVID-19 by mid-January. The high transmissibility of the Omicron variant combined with vaccinations have provided the population a level of immunity, leading to a shift in political attitudes. 

Under the current system in Spain and other developed countries, the total numbers of COVID cases are counted each day. [The Irish Times] Under the new system, infection numbers would be calculated from sample groups, much the way opinion polls are taken. [The Irish Times] 

(hm/pk)

 

Vatican City: Pope warns ‘cancel culture’ is invading public institutions 

Pope Francis has criticised so-called cancel culture, warning that it is invading many public institutions, stifling freedom of expression and hindering cooperation between societies. [Politico] [The Times] [Wall Street Journal]

In his annual address to the Vatican’s diplomatic corps, the spiritual leader of the world’s Catholics on 10 January took aim at “cancel culture” practices such as ostracising, boycotting or shunning, especially online, those taking a stance deemed to be politically incorrect, racist or unacceptable in the modern world.

“Agendas are increasingly dictated by a mindset that rejects the natural foundations of humanity and the cultural roots that constitute the identity of many people,” the pope said. [Politico]

The Vatican, the headquarters of the 1.2 billion-member Roman Catholic Church, has formal relations with around 180 countries. The pope urged diplomats from those nations to engage in real dialogue as an alternative to cancel culture. [Washington Times]

(pk)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

 
 

Armenia: President resigns, citing lack of power to resolve country’s crisis

President Armen Sarkissian resigned on 23 January from his largely symbolic position, saying he didn’t have enough power under the country’s constitution to implement change, in a move that sparked criticism from different political parties. [Reuters] [MSN] [Azatutyun]

"That decision is not emotional at all, and it follows a certain logic," said the 69-year-old politician and former Armenian prime minister from 1996-97. "I have been thinking for a long time, I have decided to resign from the post of the President of the Republic after working actively for about four years."  [Reuters][MSN][UPI]

He was elected by lawmakers to the mostly ceremonial role in 2018 for a seven-year term that was to end in 2025.

Lawmakers representing the ruling Civil Contract party and the opposition minority in the National Assembly said Sarkissian was well aware of the largely ceremonial powers vested in the presidency when he agreed to become president in early 2018. [Azatutyun]

“Didn’t he know the limits of his prerogatives when he was elected president?” said Civil Contract’s Khachatur Sukiasian. “He must have familiarized himself with the constitution before taking office.”  [Azatutyun]

Hayk Mamijanian, an opposition lawmaker affiliated with the Republican Party (HHK), said Sarkissian has not performed his duties properly. “He has sung the same song for four years,” Mamijanian told reporters. “Talking about the same things -- powers, powers, powers -- for four years is not comprehensible for me.”  [Azatutyun]

Armenia’s war with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in late 2020 has caused internal political turmoil in Yerevan after it lost land in the disputed territory.  

Sarkissian clashed with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after the latter tried to replace the general staff of the Armed Forces with Artak Davtyant. Pashinyan, who has executive power in the country, faced calls to resign when Sarkissian refused to sign off on his appointment. [UPI]

Sarkissian was among those calling on Pashinyan to resign, urging him to step down in a November 2020 speech titled "It is possible to lose the battle, but it is inadmissible to lose the nation."[UPI]

(gc) 

 

Ukraine: Former President Poroshenko has his assets frozen

A Ukrainian court has frozen the assets of former President Petro Poroshenko while he is being investigated for high treason for allegedly providing financial assistance to pro-Russian separatists. 

The Prosecutor General’s Office is investigating Poroshenko’s purchase of coal in Donbas in 2014 and 2015 that it alleges was then used to assist pro-Russian separatists. Poroshenko denied supporting the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. [DW]

His party, European Solidarity, called the decision “illegal and unjust.” The government is “fuelling internal confrontation” and is “recklessly and irresponsibly” weakening the country’s position against “Russian aggression” instead of unifying the country, it said in a statement. [DW]

Poroshenko was defeated by current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a landslide election in 2019. Zelensky’s primary campaign promise was to tackle corruption and curb the influence of oligarchs.

Zelensky passed a law in 2021 banning oligarchs from financing political parties or owning television stations. The opposition has said that this law has concentrated too much power in Zelensky’s hands.

Poroshenko is the owner of the Roshen candy company and is one of Ukraine’s richest men. He was required to relinquish control of  Channel 5 and Priamyi Kanal TV channels when the legislation targeting oligarchs came into place in 2021.

A spokesperson for Zelensky, Sergii Nykyforov, noted that “I’m not a lawyer, but as I understand, arrest does not mean closure. The channels continue to operate. Freedom of speech has not suffered.” [Reuters]

In December, prosecutors asked a Ukrainian court to arrest Poroshenko with the possibility of bail set at 1 billion hryvnya (EUR 33 million). [Reuters].  Poroshenko, who has been outside the country since late December, has not commented on the ruling.

(bm/gc)

 

Ukraine: Law implemented that requires all national print media to be published in Ukrainian

Ukraine implemented a language law on 16 January that requires all national print media to be published in Ukrainian, the country’s official language, in what is viewed as a government effort to push back against the use of the Russian language in the public sphere.  RFE/RL

The law, adopted in 2019, does not ban publication in Russian but stipulates that a parallel Ukrainian version of equal scope and circulation must be published. That is considered an unprofitable option for publishers. RFE/RL

(gc)

 

Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

 
 

Albania: Police break up protests as opposition party violence spills into streets

Police in Albania used tear gas and water cannons to disperse hundreds of protesters on 8 Jan. after they broke into the headquarters of the Democratic Party as an internal conflict over the leadership within the main opposition party spilled into the streets of Tirana.  [Reuters] [AP]

Supporters of Sali Berisha, the country’s former prime minister and chairman of the Democratic Party, used iron bars and hammers to break into the ground floor of the building. Employees in the headquarters fired tear gas to try to stop them from entering the building before the police intervened at the party's request. [AP] [Reuters]

Police detained at least 25 of the trespassers and eight party staff members, authorities said. One police officer and one protester were injured, according to the police. [Euronews] [AP]

After the protest, Berisha and the current Democratic Party chairman Lulzim Basha held press conferences accusing each other of instigating the violence. Basha condemned what he called “Sali Berisha's criminal organization that, with terrorist tools, tried to violently usurp the Democrats' headquarters to be protected from his non grata designation.”

Berisha said that “real opposition is what you witnessed today” and announced that more protests would take place. [Euronews Albania] 

The DP’s internal strife began when chairman Basha ousted Berisha from the party’s parliamentary group, after the latter was declared as “persona non grata” by the US Department of State. Berisha did not accept Basha’s decision and started a campaign which eventually divided the DP in two factions fighting over the control of the party. [see Europe Monthly No. 3. January 2022]

The US Ambassador to Albania, Yuri Kim, warned that “those inciting violence or undermining the rule of law will be held accountable.” The European Union delegation to Albania stated that “there must be no room for violence in politics.”  [Euractiv] [Euronews] 

Prosecutors have opened an investigation into the protest violence. Berisha went to the prosecutors’ office on 13 Jan. while Basha appeared the following day. [Euractiv]

For about two hours, Basha was interrogated by the prosecutor where he gave his testimony. He added in a press conference that the focus is now making sure that organizers and perpetrators are brought to justice. [Albanian Daily News]

“As a rule, we do not ask for evidence to disprove lies, but lies require lies,” Basha said. “Berisha's lies started on September 9. I prefer to leave the past behind.” 

(ec/gc)

 

Albania: Power utility wants to lease thermal power plant to combat energy shortages

Albania’s power utility KESH intends to lease a thermal power plant with an installed capacity of 110-130 megawatts to combat the country’s chronic energy shortages. [Balkan Green Energy News] [Euractiv]

KESH issued a call for an expression of interest to determine the technical and economic feasibility of  leasing its thermal power plant and connecting it to the country’s electricity transmission grid. The leasing period will be for one to three years. [Balkan Green Energy News] [Euractiv]

Its domestic generation is almost entirely dependent on hydropower and imports, since its only thermal power plant is currently inoperable. The country's power supply security is a “challenge,” according to the US International Trade Administration.

In October, Albania declared an energy emergency because of power shortages. From January to November 2021, Albania spent EUR 213 million to import energy, which represents about half of the state energy company's revenue of EUR 481 million. [Euractiv]

(gc)

 

Albania: President Meta proposes 6 March as date for in six municipalities

President Ilir Meta said on 25 January that he has proposed 6 March as the date for snap elections in six municipalities that have been without elected mayors since 2019. [Albania Daily News].

The date gives the opposition more time to prepare for the elections, Meta said. The Secretary General of the Democratic Party, Gazment Bardhi, accused Meta of favouring the majority party by choosing March 6 as the date of the snap elections. [Albania Daily News]

Meta called on political parties to participate in the snap elections, saying that these elections should be ``a model in respecting free voting and the will of the citizens,’’ Albania Daily News reported on 20 January the president as saying. Democratic Party leader, Lulzim Basha, said that his party will participate, adding that ``the DP will not run away from any battle, including local elections.’’  [Albania Daily News] [Albania Daily News] 

A power vacuum, resignations, death, arrest and dismissals have left six municipalities without elected mayors. In the municipality of Shkodra, Voltana Ademi, who was elected in 2015, remains in office even though four years have passed since the end of her term. ’[Albania Daily News]

The mayor of Durres, Valbona Sako, resigned after the earthquake of November 2019 while the mayor of Vora, Agim Kajmaku, was dismissed the same year by the Central Election Commission. The municipalities of Dibër, Rrogozhina and Lushnja remained without a mayor.’ [Albania Daily News]

"We have had an absurd situation for a long time, where some municipalities do not have leaders,’’ Meta said on 14 January when he announced the decision to set a date for the elections. “The municipalities without a mayor are not functioning properly.” [Albania Daily News]

(gc)

 

Moldova: Government declared another state of emergency in the energy sector

Moldova declared a new 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector that will redirect funds to Russia’s Gazprom as the energy-import dependent country’s struggles to pay for its natural gas bills. [Euronews] 

The country’s parliament approved the decision, which allowed energy importer Moldovagaz to pay its January gas advance to Gazprom, which had earlier rejected a request by Moldova to reschedule the payment. Gazprom told the government in an official notice that if it failed to pay its outstanding debts in January, it  would shut off shipments. [Euronews][RT] 

“The introduction of a state of emergency is necessary for the energy security of the state, for all citizens of Moldova to spend the winter without problems and have gas,” Moldova’s prime minister Natalia Gavrilita told parliament. She said the cabinet needed to expand its powers to switch gas supplies from industry to households and to use budget funds to pay Gazprom. [Euronews][RT] 

Vadim Cheban, the head of Moldovagaz, had said that the company would not be able to pay back Gazprom in January, adding that tariffs had not kept up with the rising cost of gas. The company was unable to get credit from banks. [RT] 

Moldova relies entirely on pipeline imports from Russia for its natural gas. It also has no significant refining capacity and imports most of its petroleum liquids, according to the US Energy Information Administration. [EIA]

Moldova’s energy-important dependency is causing economic and political strains.

The government  declared a state of emergency in October, which led to a five-year contract between Moldovagaz and Gazprom allowing for monthly payments. Moldova requested an extension on its November payment, when Gazprom threatened to shut off shipments, but Moldovagaz was eventually able to pay the $75m bill. [RT] 

Moldovagaz’s Cheban  has argued that the country’s gas supply problems are due to the long-standing habit of incurring gas debts, TASS reported, citing a 14 January interview with the CEO on TV-21 television channel. “We got used to receiving gas with deferred payment, with incurred debt,” Cheban said. 

“It does not and will not work this way anymore on the gas market,” he said.  “We need to understand this.” Cheban called on the government to resolve systemic problems preventing Moldovagaz from making timely settlements with Gazprom, he added.[TASS]

(gc)

 

North Macedonia: Parliament elects new PM after months of uncertainty

North Macedonia’s parliament elected Social Democrat technocrat Dimitar Kovacevski, who has pledged to bring the country closer to the EU,after more than two months of political uncertainty. [VOA] [Euronews]

Of the 120-seat parliament, 62 members backed the new coalition cabinet led by Kovacevski's Social Democrats (SDSM), while 46 lawmakers voted against. [VOA] The SDSM-led governing coalition includes two ethnic Albanian parties, with 10 out of 21 ministers being ethnic Albanians. 

The new government will focus on expanding economic growth, managing the country’s energy crisis and the effects of COVID-19, Kovacevski said.  He also said he would bring the country closer to the EU and step up talks with Bulgaria, which is obstructing North Macedonia’s European Union integration process into the EU due to history and language disputes. [Euronews Albania] 

 One day after he was sworn in, Kovacevski met with Bulgaria’s newly elected Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. They  “agreed to use this new energy and ... improve the relations between the two countries”. [AP News] [Euronews]

Members of the VMRO-DPMNE, a centre-right opposition party, voted against electing the new government, saying it would be legitimate only after new elections. Kovacevski said that “the topic of early parliamentary elections is closed.” [RFE/RL] [Balkan Insight]

Kovacevski, a former deputy finance minister, succeeded Zoran Zaev after he stepped down following his party's heavy defeat in municipal elections in October. [Bloomberg]

(ec/gc)

 

Kosovo: Ethnic Serbs barred from voting directly in polling booths in Serbia’s referendum  

Kosovo passed a resolution banning ethnic Serbs from voting directly in their majority enclaves in Serbia’s referendum, a move that was criticized by the European Union and other Western countries. [AP News]

A majority of the country’s parliament voted in an extraordinary session in favour of banning Serbia from opening polling centres in Kosovo. Seventy-six out of 120 deputies voted on 15 Jan. in support of the declaration. [Al Jazeera]

Prime Minister Albin Kurti said polling booths in areas with a large Serb population were unconstitutional, and that ethnic Serbs could vote by mail or at the liaison office in the country’s capital, Pristina. [DW] [Al Jazeera]

“Kosovo is an independent and sovereign state,” Kurti said. 

In a joint statement, Germany, Italy, France, the EU, the UK and the US urged Kosovo to allow ethnic Serbs to vote as is the “established practice”. [Reuters]

“We note with regret that the Kosovo government has not allowed the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to collect ballots of eligible voters living in Kosovo for the upcoming referendum in accordance with past practice,” the Western governments said.

Kosovo’s police barred a Serbian election official from entering the country and confiscated two vehicles carrying ballot papers. 

Serbian official Petar Petković stated that “Kurti and his extremists should not think that in the future they will succeed in banning Serbs in Kosovo from voting” and specifically mentioned the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections that will be held on 3 April in Serbia.

The Serbian referendum was held on 16 January and opened the way for changes in the judiciary as part of Serbia’s EU accession plans. [AP News]

Kosovo, a former Serbian province, declared its independence in 2008 but Serbia refuses to recognize it as independent and still considers it as part of its territory.

(ec/gc)

 

Bulgaria: First woman appointed to head the country’s highest court

Bulgaria’s president Rumen Radev signed a decree on 17 January appointing the first woman to head the highest court in the country as the government tries to crack down on corruption and graft. [Euractiv] 

Judge Galina Zaharova was unanimously elected by the 20 members of the Supreme Judicial Council to head the Supreme Court of Cassation. She was the only candidate and will start in her role in February. [RFE/RL]

Zaharova said she would ensure the independence of the judiciary, the independence of judges and the transparency of the judiciary. She defined herself as “the first among the equal judges,’’ but not their boss. [Euractiv]

(gc/pk)

 

Bulgaria: Head of anti-corruption agency resigns

Sotir Tsatsarov, the head of the country’s anti-corruption agency, resigned on 17 January 

The former prosecutor said he plans to step down on March 1 and will then explain his reasons for quitting. [Reuters] 

Prime Minister Kiril Petkov has pledged zero tolerance for corruption, and plans to overhaul the agency as a first step to end a climate of impunity in the country. [Reuters]

Bulgaria is ranked as the most corrupt European Union member state by anti-graft group Transparency International, according to Reuters. Bulgaria's ambitions of attracting more foreign investment and joining the EU’s Schengen free travel zone are hurt by corruption. [Reuters]

(gc)

 

Bulgaria: Watchdog slams court fines for journalists in defamation case 

A Bulgarian court has fined two journalists and a website USD 35,000 in a defamation ruling that prompted swift criticism by media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF). [RFE/RL]

The Sofia City Court ruled that four articles published in 2018 by Boris Mitov and Stoyana Georgieva for the news website Mediapool caused physical and mental anguish to Svetlin Mihailov, a former chairman of the city court. Lawyers for the two journalists and Mediapool have appealed the ruling, although no date has been set yet for that hearing. [RFE/RL]

Mitov, now a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, was covering Mihailov’s bid to become head of Bulgaria’s largest district court, while Georgieva was the editor in chief of Mediapool. The articles focused on the undisclosed value of Mihailov’s properties and some of his controversial rulings. [Reporters Without Borders]

Reporters Without Borders issued a statement on 14 January condemning the decision as “judicial harassment’’ that could further endanger press freedom in the country. [RSF]

“This gag-verdict could set a dangerous precedent for press freedom in Bulgaria,” said Pavol Szalai, head of the RSF European Union and Balkans desk. “The disproportionate amount of damages that the journalists have been ordered to pay could have a chilling effect on the media covering matters of public interest.”  [RSF]

The media watchdog questioned the impartiality of the judge and her decision as the information in the articles was publicly available. 

Judge Daniela Popova ruled on 21 December that the articles contained “defamatory allegations against [Mihailov].” In her ruling, Popova did not specify exactly what extracts from the articles in question she found “indecent, vulgar, and cynical.” [RFE/RL]

RSF called on the government to look into the frequent use of Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation (SLAPP), which it said limits press freedoms.  [RSF] The defendants’ lawyer, Aleksandar Kashamov, agreed with RSF on the use of SLAPPs, saying that it is a tool to censor the press.

(ib/gc)

 

Bulgaria: European court rules Bulgaria’s surveillance law violates rights convention

The European Court of Human Rights ruled unanimously on 11 January in a case filed by two Bulgarian lawyers that the country’s law on secret surveillance and data collection violates the European Convention of Human Rights. [Balkan Insight] [RFE/RL]

Mihail Ekimdzhiev and Aleksandar Kashamov, the lawyers, argued in 2012 filing that the country’s current laws allow the state to intercept and access the communications of anyone in the country. They also argued that the National Bureau for Control of Special Means of Surveillance has limited transparency. [Balkan Insight] [RFE/RL]

The court said Bulgaria failed to meet the rights convention with its Special Surveillance Means Act of 1997.   [RFE/RL]

“The system of overseeing secret surveillance in Bulgaria as it was currently organised did not appear capable of providing effective guarantees against abusive surveillance,”  the Strasbourg-based court said in a statement. There are limited ways in which people subjected to surveillance can find out about the process or request information about it, the court said.  [Balkan Insight] [RFE/RL] 

The independence of the National Bureau for Control of Special Means of Surveillance “could not be guaranteed, particularly as its members were given prior vetting by an agency whose requests they were meant to oversee,” the court said. 

(ib/gc)

 

Bulgaria: Opposition-led protests against COVID-19 restrictions turned violent in Sofia

Protests against COVID-19 restrictions turned violent when demonstrators briefly clashed with police outside the parliament building in Sofia, as the number of infections from the virus increased. [BTV] [RadioFreeEurope] [BulgariaOnAir] [Reuters]

About 3,000 people took to the capital’s streets on 12 January to oppose the  government’s implementation of a mandatory health pass. They said it trampled on their rights and was a back-door way of forcing people to get vaccinated. [RFR/RL][CNN]

Eight police officers and several people were injured, the Interior Ministry said. [RFR/RL][CNN]

Bulgaria, the least vaccinated member of the EU, recorded its highest number of COVID-19 cases on the day of the protest [RadioFreeEurope] [BNR] [BNR] [BNT].

After the protests, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, who took office in December and pledged to spur vaccinations in the Balkan country, said that the certificate system and other preventive measures would remain. After his quarantine was over, though, he would discuss the issue with concerned citizens. 

Several high-ranking ministers, including Petkov, the leader of the Revival party and the president were put under quarantine after they came in contact with a positive member of the parliament during a security meeting earlier in the month. [Euractiv]

Waving national flags and flags of the ultra-nationalist Revival party, which organized the protests, they chanted "Freedom" and "Mafia."  The Revival party said that the protests would continue even though one third of Revival’s representatives have been vaccinated [BNR] [Reuters] [BTV] [RadioFreeEurope] [BulgariaOnAir] [Nova].

The party’s leader, Kostadin Kostadinov, long active on Bulgaria’s political fringe, has adamantly opposed maintaining or adopting further COVID-19 social-distancing measures. [RFE/RL][CNN] [RFE/RL] He has described COVID-19 restrictions as a ‘’criminal policy.’’

Other members of the government criticized the participation of the nationalistic party, saying they do not consider the health and well-being of their supporters.

(ib/gc)

 

Serbia: Citizens vote in referendum to amend constitution that could advance country’s EU bid

Serbia approved in a national referendum an amendment to the country’s constitution that could advance its bid to join the EU. [Euractiv] [RFE/RL].

The Serbian government said the amendment will grant greater independence to the judiciary and reduce political influence. The changes passed with 60 percent support, though the turnout among the 6.5 million eligible voters was only 30 percent. [RFE/RL] [AP]

France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the EU welcomed the results, saying in a joint statement that constitutional changes were “a key step to strengthen the independence of the judiciary and to enhance the transparency and effectiveness of the country’s rule of law institutions.”

They added that these reforms were a step forward towards Serbia’s alignment with European standards and will support Serbia’s EU accession process. [Joint Statement]

The prospects of Serbia joining the EU any time soon remain remote — and not just because of relations with Kosovo and Bosnia. Rampant corruption, the erosion of rule of law and close ties to Russia, as evidenced by Moscow’s recent supply of arms to Belgrade, will make its accession a political minefield. Meanwhile, China is also expanding its foothold in the country. [Politico]

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's government has faced accusations that it curbs democratic freedoms, which they have denied. New York-based Human Rights Watch said on 13 January that journalists in Serbia who criticise the government are still exposed to harassment, threats, violence and intimidation, and the rights of the LGBTI and disabled persons must improve significantly. [AP News] [Euractiv]

Ahead of the referendum, neighbouring Kosovo adopted a resolution banning ethnic Serbs from voting in it, a move that was criticized by Serbia as well as the European Union and other Western countries. [AP News]

The US Mission to the OSCE said it had hoped that the Kosovo government “would continue the long-standing practice of permitting the OSCE to collect the ballots of eligible voters living in Kosovo, but it chose not to do so.” [US Mission OSCE]  

(gc)

 

Greece: Financial relief extended into January amid protests against COVID-19 restrictions 

Greece extended financial relief into January to help households and businesses deal with surging energy prices, after demonstrations erupted late last year against government-imposed COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. [Reuters] [ekathimerini]

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on 7 January the relief extension would cost the government EUR 400 million. About a week later, he said that the government will increase the minimum wage for a second time later this year as rising inflation hits consumers’ income. [ekathimerini] [Reuters]

Like much of Europe, Greece is getting slammed by higher energy prices. 

Natural gas prices in December increased 35.7 percent year on year, while electricity surged 45 percent and heating oil jumped 34.1 percent for the same period, according to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. Some food, meat and edible oil prices have increased by double digits. 

In September, the government provided a power bill subsidy of EUR 9 a month for the first 300 hours consumed in the month. That was increased to EUR 18 for October, to EUR 39 for November and EUR 50 for December. [ekathimerini]

“The government will support households, farmers and our businesses against worldwide turmoil in energy prices for one more month,” Mitsotakis said in a statement.

The economic challenges come as the government faces public criticism for its COVID-19 restrictions.  In November, social unrest and protests struck Greece after the government imposed additional pandemic-related restrictions on unvaccinated Greeks. [EiR Monthly, December 2021]

Health care workers protested in early November against compulsory measures in the health care sector while the catering industry went on strike on 16 November to voice its disagreement with a COVID-19 health pass requirement in pubs, cafés, and restaurants. [AP] [Euractiv]  [EiR Monthly, December 2021]

Despite the economic challenges facing the Greek government, Fitch Ratings revised the country’s outlook to positive from stable, although it kept its rating at BB, two notches below investment grade, it said in a 14 January report. [Fitch][AP]

“Strong economic growth dynamics and a falling fiscal deficit will support a faster than expected decline in public sector indebtedness, in the context of low current and expected borrowing costs,” Fitch said. 

Fitch estimated that the Greek economy grew 8.3 percent in 2021, much faster than the 4.3 percent forecast in its previous rating review last July. The ongoing pandemic, being fuelled by virus variants, hurt growth in the last quarter.

(gc)

 

Greece: Ex Attica governor blames intensity of weather for 2017 flood destruction, not neglect 

The former regional governor of Attica blamed the improbable intensity of the weather, not neglect, for destruction that killed dozens of people in November 2017. [Ekathimerini]

Rena Dourou denied in court on 14 January the charges, including manslaughter through neglect, that were asserted against her and nine other officials. They are facing criminal charges for grievous bodily harm, provoking floods through neglect, violating construction regulations and breach of duty. [Ekathimerini]

Twenty-five people died in the floods in Mandra in Attica, a historical region that encompasses the city of Athens, the capital of Greece and its countryside. [Ekathimerini]

(gc)

 

Serbia: PM says Rio Tinto mining project has been cancelled after protests

Serbia cancelled the Rio Tinto lithium mining project after nationwide protesters against the project blocked main roads and bridges across the country, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said on 18 Jan. [Euractiv] [AP News]

All other activities related to exploring lithium reserves in Serbia have been stopped, Brnabic said. “We have fulfilled all the requests of the environmental protests and put an end to Rio Tinto in the Republic of Serbia,” Brnabic said in a televised address. “Everything is finished. It’s over.”  [AP News]

The USD 2.4b Rio Tinto lithium project in the Jadar Valley, near Loznica in western Serbia, triggered protests in Belgrade and other Serbian towns against the planned mine. Opponents say the project would cause severe environmental damage.  [Euractiv] [AP News]

The protests posed the biggest challenge yet to President Aleksandar Vucic, who denounced the road blockades as illegal and claimed they are being financed from abroad to destabilize the country. [AP News]

Brnabic said all the licenses granted to Rio Tinto, which has been exploring mining possibilities in the country for about two decades, were provided by the previous, pro-Western government. But Serbia's independent media allege that the main contracts with Rio Tinto were signed with the current right-wing leadership.  [AP News]

Australian-based Rio Tinto said it was "extremely concerned" by Serbia's decision and was reviewing the legal basis for it as it had “always operated in compliance” with Serbian laws. Rio Tinto had pushed back the timeline for first production from Jadar by one year to 2027, citing delays in key approvals, after committing to the project just last year. [Reuters] 

The cancellation of the licence came shortly after Australia revoked its visa to Serbian tennis player Novak Djokovic, who didn’t have a COVID-19 vaccination. President Vucic said on 16 January that Australia’s decision to revoke the visa was political and a witch hunt. [Euractiv]

(gc)

 

Turkey: Human rights set back decades in Turkey, watchdog says

Turkey’s human rights record has been set back by decades as the second-largest member in NATO flagrantly defies international human rights law, Human Rights Watch said on 13 January in its 752-page World Report 2022. [Human Rights Watch]

In 2021, the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was the first country to withdraw from the Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence against Women and Domestic Violence, known as the Istanbul Convention, the New York-based rights group said.  [Human Rights Watch]

In December, Turkey refused to free the human rights defender Osman Kavala, a decision that prompted the Council of Europe to start the process of sanctioning the government for defying a European Court of Human Rights binding judgment ordering his release. 

“President Erdogan has over the past year followed a course to dispense with Turkey’s adherence to the framework of international human rights law,” Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said. “Withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention is a setback for women’s rights and efforts to combat domestic violence. 

Political control over courts is at the core of the deep erosion of rule of law in Turkey, the rights group said. Impunity remains entrenched for police abuses and for cases of enforced disappearances, it said.

Turkey announced in March its human rights "action plan" designed to strengthen the rule of law and judicial independence. The plan includes respecting the presumption of innocence and a speedier judicial process to reduce the length of pre-trial detention. [France 24] 

The proposed framework “represented another missed opportunity for the Turkish authorities to display a strong commitment to addressing the root causes of the most crucial problems in Turkey’s human rights situation,” Amnesty International said at the time. [Amnesty]

(gc)

 

Turkey: Justice minister calls for new civilian constitution to secure ‘democratic gains’

Turkey needs a new civilian constitution to secure the country’s “democratic gains,” the pro-government Daily Sabah reported, citing Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gül during a conference on 9 January in Istanbul. [Daily Sabah]

“It is clear that Turkey needs a new civil and democratic constitution,” Gül said. “We firmly believe that our parliament can do this as well. The level that Turkish politics and democracy have reached is strong enough to do this.” 

Turkey’s current constitution was ratified in 1982. It has subsequently been amended since then, including three times through referendums in 2007, 2010 and 2017.  

(gc)

 

Turkey: Erdogan calls for ban of Peoples’ Democratic Party lawmakers from parliament 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to prevent lawmakers in the Peoples’ Democratic Party from participating in the country’s parliament because of their alleged relationship with the Kurdish PKK “terrorist” group, the pro-government Daily Sabah reported. [Daily Sabah]

"We do not want to see extensions of the PKK terrorist group in the Turkish parliament," the paper reported Erdogan as saying during a Justice and Development Party’s parliamentary group meeting on 12 January. Erdogan criticized other parties, including the Republican People's Party and the Good Party, for failing to call for their exclusion from the parliament, the paper reported.  [Daily Sabah]

Erdogan made his comments after Semra Guzel, a deputy in the Peoples’ Democratic Party’s branch in Diyarbakir in eastern Turkey, was seen in photographs with Volkan Bora, a member of the PKK that Turkey accuses of being behind terrorist attacks. Guzel said that Bora was her fiancée. 

People's Alliance partner Devlet Bahceli also called on the Constitutional Court to ban the party over its relations with the PKK terrorist group.  [Daily Sabah]

(gc)

 

Turkey: Central Bank hikes end-2022 inflation forecast as its struggles to halt Lira rout

Turkey hiked its forecast for year-end inflation as government efforts to halt the rout in the lira continue amid concerns that the central bank has been pressured to cut interest rates by President Tayyip Erdogan. 

The central bank raised its forecast to 23.2 percent, from 11.8 percent previously, Governor Sahap Kavcıoglu said in Ankara on 27 January. The annual inflation rate stood at 36.1 percent in December, its highest level in 19 years, as higher consumer prices cut into the earning and savings of Turks. [Nasdaq][Daily Sabah]

Kavcıoglu countered accusations that a series of interest rate cuts, which have been described in some reporting as “unorthodox,” had caused prices to soar and the lira to tumble, saying the bank makes policy decisions based on data and that the currency fall would have happened irrespective. The lira touched a record low against the dollar in December after another rate cut. [Nasdaq][Daily Sabah][Al Jazeera][CNBC]

"We took care of the exchange rate, God willing we will take care of inflation too with these policies," he said. 

Erdogan, who has replaced three central bank governors in the past two years, supports an unorthodox theory that higher interest rates cause higher inflation. He thinks a monetary policy of easing rates will boost exports, investment and jobs, despite concerns from economists that Turkey may face a huge crisis if interest rates continue to drop.  [Nasdaq][Daily Sabah][Al Jazeera][CNBC]

Erdogan pledged in early January to ease consumer prices. He said that inflation was not in line with economic realities in Turkey, adding that he hoped to see the benefits of Ankara’s economic policy in the summer. He has repeatedly blamed the country’s financial situation on foreign financial tools. [Business Standard][CNBC]

The central bank is encouraging investors to convert their savings into lira from foreign currencies, which is described by the monetary authority as “liraization.” Turkish officials believe that this will allow policy makers to curb price growth. [Bloomberg]  

The country’s finance minister Nureddin Nebati predicted on 15 January that inflation will fall to single digits by the time presidential and parliamentary elections set for mid-2023 are held, though officials have consistently undershot actual inflation in the last few years. [Daily Sabah]

Nebati said that the de-dollarization trend and conversion of foreign exchange holdings to the lira will accelerate. He predicted that the central bank’s reserves will rise as well. [Daily Sabah]

“There is no sign of regret by policy makers and hence we think it quite unlikely that we will see any policy tightening in the coming months,” JPMorgan said in a report. “Although further monetary easing would be too fantastic even for the Turkish central bank, it would not be a surprise to see efforts for faster loan growth and some fiscal easing.” [Ahvalnews]

(gc)

 

Turkey: Support for President Erdogan sinking with prolonged economic crisis

Popular support for President Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for almost two decades, has sunk to its lowest level since 2015, as higher inflation and economic mismanagement dent the incomes and savings of Turks and threaten his grip on power. [Intellinews][Reuters]

A Metropoll Research survey published in January put Erdogan’s approval rating at 38.6 percent, making him less popular than two potential rivals, who are planning to run against the president in the June 2023 election. Public approval for Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu—both from the main opposition Republic People’s Party — were 60 percent and 51 percent, respectively. IYI Party leader Meral Aksener had 38.5%.[Intellinews][Reuters]

Since 2018, the country has faced economic problems that were amplified by the integration of millions of migrants, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic mismanagement, the costs of military engagements and large geopolitical overstretch. With presidential elections next year, Erdogan and his core allies may face their most serious threat yet to their hold on power.  [EiR Monthly January 2022] 

Support for Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party is also suffering, with around two-thirds of respondents telling the Sosyo Politik Field Research Centre that the economy was Turkey's biggest problem and more than half said that the Erdogan administration’s recent measures would not improve the economy.  [Intellinews][Reuters]

The  poll by Sosyo Politik put support for the AKP at 27 percent compared to 37 percent who said they voted for the party in the last parliamentary election in 2018. The AKP's nationalist ally in parliament, the MHP, was 6.3 percent, down from 7.3 percent, who said they voted for the party in 2018.  [Intellinews][Reuters]

An ORC Research poll conducted last week showed AKP-MHP support totalled 38.7 percent, lagging CHP-IYI on 39.5 percent. [Forbes].

The pro-government Daily Sabah reported on 5 January that support for the Justice and Development Part-led People’s Alliance increased following Erdoğan’s announcement of bold financial tools to protect the Turkish lira on 20 December. The newspaper cited a recent survey conducted by Optimar research company. [Daily Sabah]

(gc)

 
 

Team:

Beth Molloy (bm), Emiljano Cera (ec), Emre Can Çalışkan (ecc), Eric Kliszcz (ek), Glen Carey (gc), Harry McNeil, Harry Taunton (ht), Henning Glaser (hg), Imogen Groves (ig), Ivandzhelin Bozadzhieva (ib), Karina Corral (kc), Kendall Ashlee (ka), Marlene Busch (mb), Mustafa Hussain (mh), Nicholas Warren (nw), Peter Kononczuk (pk), Quentin Vidberg (qv), Robert Nielsen (rn), Sarah Donald (sdo), Venus Phuangkom, Warren Ó Broin (wb), Yara Pstrong (yp)

 

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