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July 12, 2022 - Brief Issue 346

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Biden Administration Considering Second Booster Shots for All (Health & Science)

New Study Shows Cancer Drug Greatly Reduces Deaths in Hospitalized Covid Patients (Health & Science)

California Sees Third Largest Surge of the Pandemic (Health & Science)

Shanghai Fears Another Lockdown as BA.5 Causes Outbreaks (Around the World)

Beijing Introduces Local Vaccine Pass (Around the World)

New Zealand Reopens to an Exodus of Workers (Around the World)

Norwegian Cruises Drops Negative Test Requirement for Most Countries (Around the World)

Biden’s Approval Rating Falls, Most Democrats Want Someone Else in 2024; House GOP Competitive in Blue Districts, But Major Senate GOP Candidates Struggle (U.S. Government & Politics)

DeSantis Makes Inroads in Trump-Supporting Wisconsin County (U.S. Government & Politics)

Mortgage Rates Fall in Possible Sign of Recession Fears (U.S. Economy)

Pew Survey: Pandemic Eroded Trust in Elected Leaders and Experts (U.S. Society)

Sandra Lindsay, First American to be Vaccinated Receives Medal of Freedom (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 88,754,821 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,021,306 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 597,655,035 vaccine doses, with 78.4% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 67% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.7% have received at least one dose, and 76.9% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 47.9% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 27.7% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 556,586,071 cases of coronavirus, with 6,353,058 deaths.

Biden Administration Considering Second Booster Shots for All

The Biden administration is discussing planning for a possible push to open second booster shots to all Americans (WaPo). Any such move would still require agency approval. The Washington Post writes, “While the booster plan still needs formal sign-off from regulators and public health officials, it has the backing of White House coronavirus coordinator Ashish Jha and Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious-disease expert, according to five officials who like others interviewed in this report spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the plan.” The Post notes, “Currently, a second booster shot is available only to those 50 and older, as well as to those 12 and older who are immunocompromised. But administration officials are concerned by data that suggests immunity wanes within several months of the first booster shot. Swiftly expanding access to booster shots also would enable people who are boosted now to receive reformulated shots that target newer virus variants, when those become available, probably later this year. In addition, officials want to use vaccine doses that are reaching their expiration dates and would otherwise be discarded.”

New Study Shows Cancer Drug Greatly Reduces Deaths in Hospitalized Covid Patients

Sabizabulin, an experimental drug developed to fight cancer, reduced the risk of death in hospitalized Covid patients by 55% in a new study published last Wednesday. The company that developed the drug, Veru, has applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization. “This looks super impressive,” said Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an infectious disease expert at the University of Alberta who was not involved in the study. “We have a small number of treatments for patients with severe disease that improve mortality, but another treatment that can further reduce deaths would be very welcome.” But Dr. Shwartz noted that the trial was small, with just 134 patients, and that more trials would be needed to confirm the efficacy of the drug (NYT). Zabizabulin blocks cells from building microtubules, which are molecular cables that transfer material from one part of the cell to another. Researchers at Veru suspected the drug might prevent viral replication and began testing it on covid two years ago. They also hypothesized that it would help patients fight lung inflammation that results from Covid-19. The New York Times summarizes the results of the trial: “In the latest trial, 134 volunteers received sabizabulin and 70 a placebo. Over the course of 60 days, the death rates of the two groups were significantly different: 45.1 percent of the placebo group died compared with just 20.2 percent of those who received the new drug. That difference translated to a 55.2 percent reduction in the risk of death.”

California Sees Third Largest Surge of the Pandemic

California is experiencing its third-largest coronavirus surge of the pandemic, with around 19,000 new cases being reported each day (NYT). But health officials say the true number of those infected is even higher, as many people are relying on at-home tests, which aren’t counted in official tolls. The surge is being driven by the Omicron subvariant BA.5. The latest subvariant is highly transmissible and good at infecting people even if they’ve been vaccinated or previously infected. But California officials are hesitant to reinstate any restrictions that would dampen the spread of the virus; Alameda Country tried reinstating an indoor mask mandate last month but rescinded it three weeks later.

Bonus Read: “As the BA.5 variant spreads, the risk of coronavirus reinfection grows,” (WaPo).

Around the World

Shanghai Fears Another Lockdown as BA.5 Causes Outbreaks

Just weeks after officials declared victory against the coronavirus and ended a citywide lockdown, Shanghai confirmed that the BA.5 subvariant of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus had arrived in the city. China’s National Health Commission reported 352 locally transmitted cases on Monday (WaPo). Beijing and Shanghai are concerned that the BA.5 subvariant will lead to a mass outbreak in the country’s most populous city. During April and May, Shanghai’s reputation as a financial hub was put to the test during a disruptive lockdown. The government announced on the social media app WeChat that all residents in nine of the city’s 16 districts must have a PCR test, but did not say whether another large-scale lockdown was planned. 

Beijing Introduces Local Vaccine Pass

Beijing introduced a vaccination pass that will be necessary to enter libraries, museums, and public gathering places as of Monday (NYT). The city government announced the requirement last week and could signal a more forceful approach to vaccinations. Chinese public health experts believe that the country could reopen its borders if the vaccination rate increases and top government officials have made public statements of concern for the slow economic growth that has resulted from the prolonged closure. Housing sales have slowed and many shops and restaurants have closed for good (NYT).

But as of yet, no nationwide mandate on vaccines has been introduced. Older Chinese people have a lower rate of inoculation than other age groups, in part because of skepticism of domestically developed vaccines. No foreign-made shots have been approved by Chinese regulators.

New Zealand Reopens to an Exodus of Workers 

New Zealand eased its strict border curbs earlier this year but it seems to have only triggered an increase in departures among local workers who are seeking more opportunities abroad. The country has struggled to fill jobs as the number of foreign workers is still very low and the economy is close to maximum employment, according to Reuters. A net 10,674 people left the country over the 12 months to May, according to government data released on Tuesday. 

Norwegian Cruises Drops Negative Test Requirement for Most Countries

Norwegian Cruise Line said last week that as of August 1, passengers will no longer be required to show a negative coronavirus test before boarding, except in countries that require it. Those countries are the United States, Canada, Bermuda, and Greece, to name a few (NYT). Most other major cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean and Carnival, still require a negative test to board. Norwegian’s announcement comes as it and many other cruise lines offer steep discounts to try to recoup business lost during the pandemic. 

Bonus Read: “Chip Giants to Build Factory in France as Global Supply Race Rolls On,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden’s Approval Rating Falls, Most Democrats Want Someone Else in 2024; House GOP Competitive in Blue Districts, But Major Senate GOP Candidates Struggle

A New York Times/Siena College poll reports that Biden’s approval rating has fallen to only 32%, and 64% of Democrats do not want him to run in 2024 (NYT). The Times also notes, “Only 13 percent of American voters said the nation was on the right track — the lowest point in Times polling since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago.” One major factor in Biden’s funk is inflation, which as we have covered is partially pandemic-related. The Times writes, “Widespread concerns about the economy and inflation have helped turn the national mood decidedly dark, both on Mr. Biden and the trajectory of the nation. More than three-quarters of registered voters see the United States moving in the wrong direction, a pervasive sense of pessimism that spans every corner of the country, every age range and racial group, cities, suburbs and rural areas, as well as both political parties.” Biden performed extremely poorly with young Americans. The Times notes, “The backlash against Mr. Biden and desire to move in a new direction were particularly acute among younger voters. In the survey, 94 percent of Democrats under the age of 30 said they would prefer a different presidential nominee.” Biden may also be suffering because members of his own party are less enthusiastic about the country’s condition than members of the reigning party tend to be, a dynamic that may be related to the Supreme Court’s overruling of Roe v. Wade. The Times writes, “Typically, voters aligned with the party in power — Democrats now hold the House, the Senate and the White House — are more upbeat about the nation’s direction. But only 27 percent of Democrats saw the country as on the right track. And with the fall of Roe, there was a notable gender gap among Democrats: Only 20 percent of Democratic women said the country was moving in the right direction, compared with 39 percent of Democratic men. Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.”

While the 2024 election is years away, these dynamics may play out in the approaching midterm elections. Politico reports that as the midterm elections approach, Republican house candidates are proving competitive even in blue districts (Politico). Politico writes, “With just four months until the midterms, Democrats were already on the defensive in at least 30 highly competitive districts. But Biden’s toxicity has given the GOP optimism about seriously contesting a fresh crop of about a dozen seats that the president won in 2020 by 9 points or more — from western Rhode Island to California’s Central Valley to the suburbs of Arizona’s capital.” Politico notes as an example that Biden’s “approval rating was upside down by 32 points in a June poll of Rep. Susan Wild’s (D-Pa.) seat from the National Republican Congressional Committee.”

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that GOP Senate candidates are struggling in major races (WaPo). The Post writes, “Not for decades has the midterm environment appeared as favorable to Republicans, with President Biden’s approval rating at 39 percent, according to a Washington Post polling average in June and the share of voters approving of the country’s direction dropping to 10 percent in a Monmouth poll late last month. But four months from Election Day, Republicans are struggling in several of the marquee Senate races because of candidate challenges and campaigns still recovering from brutal Republican primaries, putting control of the upper chamber of Congress in 2023 up for grabs.” The Post notes that this diverges from the House contest that appears to be tracking national frustration with inflation and other issues more closely.

DeSantis Makes Inroads in Trump-Supporting Wisconsin County

The Wall Street Journal reports that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is gaining support in a Wisconsin country that has traditionally been very supportive of Trump (WSJ). The county in question is Washington County, where Trump “won his largest vote share in 2020 among Wisconsin counties that recorded at least 25,000 ballots.” The Journal writes, “interviews with more than two dozen of the county’s GOP voters suggest an openness to someone other than Mr. Trump for a 2024 presidential nominee. Many are quick to mention Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.” As we have covered in prior briefs, DeSantis has won conservative support nationally in part due to his public opposition to Covid restrictions, and is widely rumored to be a likely challenger to a potential Trump run for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Bonus Read: “Chuck Schumer has Covid and will be working remotely this week. Here's how that will and won't affect a 50-50 Senate perpetually on the knife's edge,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “What’s behind rising rents and what can be done?,” (WaPo).

Mortgage Rates Fall in Possible Sign of Recession Fears

On Thursday, data from Freddie Mac showed that mortgage rates saw a 5.3% decline last week, the largest weekly decline since 2008 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal suggests the decline may be a sign of recession fears, writing, “Growing fears of a recession in the U.S. stand to further push down mortgage rates as investors pile into U.S. Treasurys, widely seen as safe investments during times of economic uncertainty. Mortgage rates are closely tied to yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, which fell to their lowest level in more than a month this week. Yields fall when prices rise.” The fall also comes as the housing market shows signs of cooling off as we covered in yesterday’s brief.

Bonus Read: “Long Covid May Be Long Tail of Risk for Insurers,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Pew Survey: Pandemic Eroded Trust in Elected Leaders and Experts

According to a survey released by the Pew Research Center on Thursday, trust in experts and elected leaders eroded over the course of the pandemic (NYT). The New York Times writes, “Confidence ratings for public health officials, like those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; for state and local elected officials; and for President Biden fell in a range from 43 percent to 54 percent in the survey — much lower than during the early stages of the pandemic.” The survey also identified a partisan gap in such views with Democrats being more trusting than Republicans.

Sandra Lindsay, First American to be Vaccinated Receives Medal of Freedom

On Thursday, President Biden awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Sandra Lindsay, the first American to receive the coronavirus vaccine (NYT). The New York Times writes, “Ms. Lindsay, the director of critical care nursing at the Long Island Jewish Medical Center in Queens, was one of 17 leaders in fields ranging from politics and civil rights to sports and entertainment to be honored with the medal, considered the nation’s highest civilian award. She made history on the morning of Dec. 14, 2020, when she sat in an exam chair at the hospital where she works, presented her left arm, and received her first shot of the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.” President Biden stated that she  “poured her heart into helping patients fight for their lives and to keep their fellow nurses safe.”

Bonus Read: “Gas Station Owners, Blamed When Prices Rose, Face Risks as Prices Fall,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Derek Thompson writes on how remote work changes the role of middle managers (Atlantic).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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