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May 3, 2022 - Brief Issue 323

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus from May 6 through May 23.

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Top Headlines

NYC Enters Higher Risk Level (Health & Science)

Florida is Not Prepared for the Next Wave (Health & Science)

Virus Continues to Mutate (Health & Science)

Pediatricians, Not Pharmacies, Will Administer Shots to Kids in the U.S. (Health & Science)

Two New Variants Cause Surge in South Africa (Around the World)

China’s Economy Could be Stalling (Around the World)

Amazon Union Loses Election at Staten Island Warehouse (U.S. Economy)

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 2018 (U.S. Economy)

Stocks Edge Lower, Following Worst Month Since the Pandemic Began (U.S. Economy)

Black Owned Businesses See Boom After Pandemic’s Disproportionate Impact (U.S. Economy)

New York City Evictions Accelerate (U.S. Economy)

Austin, Texas Leads Nation’s Cities in Office Returns (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 81,444,332 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 993,999 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 576,402,886 vaccine doses, with 77.6% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.2% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.1% have received at least one dose, and 76.1% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.8% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 514,286,545 cases of coronavirus, with 6,238,505 deaths.

NYC Enters Higher Risk Level

New York City moved into the medium risk level, noted as a yellow level, as coronavirus cases continue to rise. Mayor Eric Adams is considering whether to bring back mask and vaccine mandates just as workers are returning to offices and the city’s economic recovery has begun. According to the New York Times, “the city is now seeing nearly 2,500 new cases per day, a significant jump from about 600 daily cases in early March. The latest rise, fueled by the highly contagious Omicron subvariant known as BA.2, does not rival the first Omicron surge in December and January, but recorded case levels are as high as they were when the Delta variant swept through the city last year.” With many residents testing at home, it’s very likely that the true number of cases is much higher than official tallies suggest. 

The color-coded alert system was introduced in March and is based on parameters set by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. New York was at the lowest level or risk, represented by green, which meant that cases had stayed below 200 per 100,000 residents per week. The system has several steps that should be considered for each level. At the medium risk level, masks in schools and reinstating checks for proof of vaccination at restaurants, gyms, and indoor entertainment sites should be considered. But Mayor Adams seems hesitant to take steps backwards. “We’re not there yet,” the mayor said, adding: “We can’t close down the city again. If we make the right decisions, we’re not going to have to worry about doing that.” 

Florida is Not Prepared for the Next Wave

Florida health officials are warning that the state is underprepared for the next wave of the pandemic. The state’s 250-plus hospitals are facing staffing shortages that officials fear won’t be addressed before the next surge in cases, even as the legislature budgeted over $100 million for community colleges and universities to expand medical training programs. The Florida Hospital Association issued a new report that said 70% of the state’s hospitals are facing a critical staffing shortage and that the state will be short 60,000 nurses by 2035. Florida Hospital Association president and CEO Mary Mayhew told Politico that “the biggest challenge we face will be having enough staff to respond if we experience a significant surge.”  

Virus Continues to Mutate

The coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has been generating new variants and subvariants continually ever since it first spilled into humans two and a half years ago and scientists say it shows no signs of slowing down. According to the Washington Post, “The latest member of the rogue’s gallery of variants and subvariants is the ungainly named BA.2.12.1, part of the omicron gang. Preliminary research suggests it is about 25 percent more transmissible than the BA.2 subvariant that is currently dominant nationally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC said the subvariant has rapidly spread in the Northeast in particular, where it accounts for the majority of new infections.” The new variants are forcing scientists and public health experts to make decisions quickly about the future of the coronavirus vaccines. The current vaccines seem to prevent severe illness no matter the strain of the virus, but the quick evolution could mean that that might no longer be true in the near future. “It’s evolving at a fairly rapid rate,” said Jesse Bloom, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. “I do think we need to aggressively consider whether we should update vaccines, and do it soon.” 

BA.2.12.1 is even more contagious than its close relative, BA.2, which was already more contagious than the first Omicron strain that appeared in the U.S. in late 2021. Already, scientists in South Africa have identified BA.4 and BA.5. In a new study published online but not yet peer reviewed, researchers indicated that BA.4 and BA.5 have the “potential to result in a new infection wave.”

Pediatricians, Not Pharmacies, Will Administer Shots to Kids in the U.S.

Even though coronavirus vaccines for children under five years of age are not approved yet in the U.S., public health officials are already considering how to get shots in arms. Unlike other age groups, children under five will need to receive their vaccines in doctors’ offices and not pharmacies. Most states prohibit pharmacists from vaccinating children under three years of age. “It's a lot to take on for pharmacies,” said Claire Hannan, the executive director of the Association of Immunization Managers (WaPo). “We're really focusing and targeting on the pediatrician.”

Around the World

Two New Variants Cause Surge in South Africa

Public health officials are closely monitoring a surge in cases in South Africa that they suspect is being driven by two new variants. Cases have tripled in the past week following a decline since December. Officials believe two new subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, which are part of the Omicron family, could cause a fifth wave. Tulio de Oliveira, director of South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, said that BA.4 and BA.5 demonstrate how the virus is evolving differently as global immunity increases. “What we are seeing now, or at least maybe the first signs, is not completely new variants emerging, but current variants are starting to create lineages of themselves,” Dr. de Oliveira said (NYT).

China’s Economy Could be Stalling

China’s economy is facing a period of slower growth and some economists are beginning to describe it as a recession, which typically means two straight quarters of contraction. While that scenario seems unlikely for China, thanks to the ability to unleash heavy government spending to counteract overall contraction, economists say that underlying conditions are still starting to feel like a recession. New graduates are struggling to find jobs, imports have fallen, and citizens are tending to save more money than they had previously (WSJ). As the Journal writes, “Any sustained slowdown in China will be felt globally, depriving the world economy of one of its most dependable engines when inflation and war are raising recession fears in the U.S. and Europe this year.”  

U.S. Economy

Amazon Union Loses Election at Staten Island Warehouse

The independent Amazon Labor Union failed, by a large margin, to get the votes for unionization at a Staten Island warehouse known as LDJ5 (NPR). NPR writes, “The vote was 618 votes against the union to 380 votes in favor. Roughly 1,600 workers were eligible to vote in the election, which was held in-person over four days last week.” The loss is a disappointing defeat for the union, which was riding high after it successfully unionized another Amazon warehouse (also in Staten Island) for the first time. The Amazon Labor Union tweeted, “No matter the outcome of the election, workers are uniting for change at LDJ5, JFK8 & around the world,” and emphasized that its organizing effort will continue. The Amazon unionization effort was closely tied to complaints over pandemic safety, as we have covered in prior briefs.

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 2018

According to the financial services company Tradeweb, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury hit 3 percent in recent trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “A reference for borrowing costs on everything from mortgages to student loans, the yield last closed above 3% in November 2018 and has jumped from 1.496% at the end of last year.” The Journal adds, “Prices for Treasurys, corporate bonds and municipal debt have slumped this year in response to the Fed’s moves to raise interest rates in an effort to rein in inflation. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index—largely U.S. Treasurys, highly rated corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities—returned minus 9.5% this year as of April 29.” 

Stocks Edge Lower, Following Worst Month Since the Pandemic Began

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. stocks fell slightly on Monday in the first trading day of May (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, extending losses after closing down 3.6% on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4%.” April was a bad month for the stock market with stocks performing their worst since the pandemic’s beginning. The Journal adds, “The S&P 500 fell 8.8% in April and the Dow industrials declined nearly 5%, the worst monthly performance since March 2020. The Nasdaq Composite retreated more than 13% last month, its worst showing since October 2008. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates.”

Black Owned Businesses See Boom After Pandemic’s Disproportionate Impact

Black-owned businesses were hard hit by the pandemic, but the Washington Post reports, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data, that they have since recovered to pre-pandemic levels (WaPo). The Post writes, “In the early months of the pandemic, Black-owned small businesses closed at twice the rate of other businesses, with 41 percent shutting down, according to April 2020 census data. Concentrated in the retail, restaurant and other service industries, Black owned-businesses had a harder time pivoting given pandemic restrictions. They operated on thinner margins, lacked relationships with banks and were shut out of the federal government’s relief program for small businesses.” However, things have changed. The Post adds, “Black business ownership rebounded, soaring higher than it had been pre-pandemic, a Washington Post analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. In 2021, Black-owned small businesses were created at the fastest clip in at least 26 years.” Like other businesses, these new entrepreneurs are navigating the challenges of inflation and pandemic-related and other supply chain issues. The Post interviews a number of owners about their experiences.

New York City Evictions Accelerate

After two years of a slow down in evictions during the pandemic, evictions are now accelerating in New York City (NYT). The New York Times reports, “The roughly 2,000 eviction cases filed by landlords every week since March are roughly 40 percent more than the number filed in mid-January, after the state’s eviction moratorium expired. Tenants have been thrown out of homes in more than 500 cases since February, according to city data, about double the number in all of the 20 months prior.” The number of eviction cases has not reached its pre-pandemic level, but many courts are returning to holding hearings in person. The accelerating number of evictions comes as rent prices in the city surge, as we have covered in prior briefs.

Bonus Read: “Starbucks Union Fight Intensifies Under CEO Howard Schultz,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Fuad El-Hibri, Who Led a Troubled Vaccine Maker, Dies at 64,” (NYT).

Austin, Texas Leads Nation’s Cities in Office Returns

The Wall Street Journal reports that Austin, Texas has seen its workers return to the office in far greater numbers than other major U.S. cities (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Austin offices are 59%-occupied—and cracked the 60% threshold last month—according to data from Kastle Systems, an office-security firm that records workers’ comings and goings by measuring badge swipes into skyscrapers and corporate campuses.” Government workers are not included in the data, though many in Austin are working at least part-time from the office. Other cities have lagged behind Austin. The Journal writes, “Austin’s nearby neighbor Dallas is several percentage points behind at 49% occupancy. San Jose, Calif., another hub of tech workers, has the lowest attendance rate in the U.S. cities measured by Kastle Systems at 31%. Nationwide, offices in the 10 largest U.S. markets, from New York City to Los Angeles, are hovering around 40% occupancy.” The Journal points to Austin’s tech-based hiring boom and its pre-pandemic experience with hybrid forms of work as key factors helping to explain why it has led the nation in people returning to the office.

Analysis & Arguments

Yasmin Tayag examines the debate over whether the U.S. has entered a new Covid wave (Atlantic).

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