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April 21, 2022 - Brief Issue 317
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. CDC Study: Omicron More Severe for Unvaccinated Children (Health & Science)
New York City and Alexandria, Virginia Moving to Medium Risk Level (Health & Science)
Experts Urge Masks on Planes, Even if Not Required (Health & Science)
J&J Backs Off Vaccine Sales Forecast Due to Vaccine Surplus (Health & Science)
Experts Question China’s Low Covid Death Totals, Raise Excess Death Concerns (Around the World)
‘Electronic Autopsies’ in Africa Help Low Income Countries Support the Living (Around the World)
Asia Stays Masked (Around the World)
Poland Declines to Take or Pay for Additional Covid Vaccines (Around the World)
Justice Department Appeals Mask Mandate Ruling (U.S. Government & Politics)
Justice Department Lays Covid Fraud Charges in Cases Totaling $150 Million (U.S. Government & Politics)
Biden Will Attend White House Correspondents Dinner (U.S. Government & Politics)
U.S. Home Prices Hit New Record in March (U.S. Economy)
Grubhub’s Owner Considers Selling as Orders Decline (U.S. Economy)
Netflix Stock Prices Plunges as Service Reports It Lost 200,000 Subscribers (U.S. Society)
Student Absences Among Impacts of the Pandemic (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 80,801,744 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 990,208 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 570,485,199 vaccine doses, with 77.4% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.8% have received at least one dose, and 75.9% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.5% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 507,145,033 cases of coronavirus, with 6,208,904 deaths.
U.S. CDC Study: Omicron More Severe for Unvaccinated Children
A study reported on Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that unvaccinated children aged 5 to 11 were hospitalized with Covid-19 at twice the rate of vaccinated children during the winter Omicron surge (NYT). The CDC study was based on data from hospitals that served about 10% of the U.S. population across 14 different states. It also showed that racial disparities in childhood vaccinations could be leaving Black children more exposed to severe illness. Black children accounted for about a third of unvaccinated children in the study, the largest of any racial group, and were a third of overall Covid-related hospitalizations in the 5-11 age group. “Increasing vaccination coverage among children, particularly among racial and ethnic minority groups disproportionately affected by Covid-19, is critical to preventing Covid-19-associated hospitalization and severe outcomes,” the C.D.C. study said. Only about a third of children from 5 to 11 have had at least one vaccine dose, the lowest rate of any age group in the U.S.
New York City and Alexandria, Virginia Moving to Medium Risk Level
New York City is about to move to a yellow, or medium, risk level–up from a green or low risk level–as cases in the region rise again thanks to the BA.2 Omicron subvariant (NYT). New York City’s risk level system is based on metrics set by the CDC, including the number of new cases per 100,000 people over the last week, new hospitalizations, and the percentage of hospital beds that are occupied by Covid-19 patients. It’s designed to help people evaluate their risk and make decisions about precautions accordingly.
In Northern Virginia, officials said on Wednesday that cases are also at a “medium” level after weeks of very low transmission (AlexandriaLiving). “Levels can be low, medium, or high and are determined by hospital beds in use by COVID-19 patients, new hospital admissions for those with COVID-19, and the total number of new COVID-19 cases in an area. While there has been no significant change in the two hospital measures, transmission in Alexandria has increased,” Alexandria city officials explained.
Experts Urge Masks on Planes, Even if Not Required
Health experts advise that people traveling on planes and other forms of transit continue wear masks even after a U.S. federal judge tossed the mandate on Monday. “You can quote me on this: I’m going to continue to wear an N95 mask,” said David Freedman, professor emeritus of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. “No question. You have no idea who’s on a plane” (WaPo). He added: “I think everyone should.” Freedman and other experts have continued to urge people to get vaccinated and get boosted, saying it’s even more important now if traveling amongst unmasked crowds and as cases are rising. The new omicron subvariant, BA. 2, is extremely transmissible and while it isn’t believed to cause more severe disease, experts believe another wave is coming. Bonus Read: “Nervous about flying? Here’s why a mask will still help protect you even if others aren’t wearing one,” (NYT).
J&J Backs Off Vaccine Sales Forecast Due to Vaccine Surplus
Johnson & Johnson backed off its full-year sales forecast for its Covid-19 vaccine and cited a global surplus of doses and uncertainty over the future of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “J&J had previously predicted Covid-19 vaccine sales of $3 billion to $3.5 billion for full-year 2022. J&J may still continue to generate vaccine sales, but a surplus of doses and uncertain demand make it tougher to predict, J&J Chief Financial Officer Joseph Wolk said in an interview Tuesday.” Wolk said, “The demand outlook has become cloudy, I think, in the first quarter.”
Bonus Read: “Boost now? Boost later? Tricky calculation for a 4th coronavirus shot,” (WaPo)
Around the World
Experts Question China’s Low Covid Death Totals, Raise Excess Death Concerns
Shanghai has had more than 400,000 Covid-19 infections, but just 17 people have died according to official statistics (NYT). It’s part of the evidence officials have been using to show that their strict strategy of lockdowns and mass quarantines is working. But outside scientists and health experts say the official numbers aren’t telling the whole story because China classifies Covid-related deaths more narrowly than most other countries. For example, if a chronically ill patient dies while infected, their cause of death is listed as the other condition. There have also been deaths that have been related to the lockdown policies as access to medical care has been severely limited. These deaths, called excess deaths and defined as the number of deaths (from Covid and other causes) exceeding the expected total in a given period, are not released by China. According to the New York Times, “a prominent Chinese physician recently estimated that nearly 1,000 more diabetes patients could die than expected during Shanghai’s lockdown, urging the authorities to take a more measured response.”
‘Electronic Autopsies’ in Africa Help Low Income Countries Support the Living
Many developing nations don’t keep official death records, making the toll of the Covid-19 pandemic unclear. In Sierra Leone, health workers are using a process called “electronic autopsy” to try to determine who has died and the causes of death. Health workers go door to door in villages and use a survey called the Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action, or COSMA, to ask questions about deaths in each family. The details of the deaths are then sent to physicians at the project's headquarters at Njala University and a cause of death is determined. The Sierra Leone government will use the data to inform its programs and healthcare budget, which up to now have been based on models and projections (NYT). The COSMA project has also been used in India and health officials believe it would be advantageous in other low-income countries, too, as vital statistics registration is critical for understanding public health and socio-economic inequality.
Asia Stays Masked
As Americans leave mask requirements behind, residents in Asian countries still wear face masks, even if the rules are voluntary in some countries (WSJ). In Japan, masks are generally voluntary but compliance is widespread due to social expectations and cultural norms. In South Korea, a mask mandate is still in place even as officials have lifted other restrictions on the size of gatherings and business operating hours. Hong Kong is lifting some social-distancing rules today, Thursday, but the mask mandate for public places, even outdoors, will stay in place.
Poland Declines to Take or Pay for Additional Covid Vaccines
Poland said on Tuesday that it would not be accepting or paying for any more doses of the Covid-19 vaccine under the European Union’s supply contract. Poland, and all EU members, have been receiving Covid-19 vaccines under supply contracts between the European Commission and vaccine manufacturers. But Poland has seen lower vaccine uptake than most EU members and has a surplus of vaccines now. "At the end of last week, we used the force majeure clause and informed both the European Commission and the main vaccine producer that we are refusing to take these vaccines at the moment and we are also refusing to pay," health minister Adam Niedzielski told private broadcaster TVN24. Indeed, the consequence of this will be a legal conflict, which is already taking place," he said. Poland cannot terminate the contract directly (Reuters).
U.S. Government & Politics
Justice Department Appeals Mask Mandate Ruling
On Wednesday, the Justice Department filed an appeal of the decision that struck down the federal mask mandate for public transit (AP, NYT). The AP writes, the notice to appeal “came minutes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked the Justice Department to appeal the decision handed down by a federal judge in Florida earlier this week. A notice of appeal was filed in federal court in Tampa.” On Wednesday night, Justice Department spokesman Anthony Coley said the appeal was filed “in light of today’s assessment by the CDC that an order requiring masking in the transportation corridor remains necessary to protect the public health.” Initially, it was not clear if the Biden administration would appeal with the administration saying it would await a CDC decision and not asking for a stay while the TSA announced it would not enforce the mandate and multiple companies and transit providers lifted their requirements. However, the CDC on Wednesday expressed its “continuing assessment that at this time an order requiring masking in the indoor transportation corridor remains necessary for the public health.”
Justice Department Lays Covid Fraud Charges in Cases Totaling $150 Million
On Tuesday, the Department of Justice released a summary of charges involving Covid-19 related fraud in cases involving a total of around $150 million (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes regarding the total “around $20 million of which have been paid, officials said.” The Journal reports that the summary comes “as the Justice Department steps up efforts to uncover theft from programs that were pumping billions of dollars into the healthcare system after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. The new cases are filed in districts around the country, and provide a sweeping look at how some healthcare providers allegedly sought to cheat Medicare and other programs by bundling charges for unnecessary services—or those that weren’t ever provided—with the delivery of relatively inexpensive Covid-19 tests.” One case involved $144 million in allegedly fraudulent Medicare claims that the charged individuals Imran Shams and Lourdes Navarro then allegedly laundered.
Biden Will Attend White House Correspondents Dinner
On Wednesday, the White House Correspondents’ Association announced that President Biden and the first lady will both attend the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner on April 30 (Politico). The dinner was canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, but it has been much longer since a “first couple” attended the dinner. Politico writes, “The Bidens’ attendance at the April 30 event would make them the first ‘first couple’ to take part in the festivities since Barack and Michelle Obama attended in 2016. Donald and Melania Trump boycotted and occasionally counter-programmed the black-tie affair throughout their term in the White House.”
U.S. Economy
U.S. Home Prices Hit New Record in March
U.S. home prices hit a new record high in March, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “U.S. home prices reached a record $375,300 in March as mortgage-interest rates shot up and a shortage of homes for sale continued to thwart buyers.” That constitutes a 15% increase compared to the same time last year. NAR’s data goes back to 1999. The record comes as sales fall off with the Journal noting, “Existing-home sales fell 2.7% in March from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. March sales fell 4.5% from a year earlier.”
Grubhub’s Owner Considers Selling as Orders Decline
Just Eat Takeaway.com NV, the company that owns food delivery app Grubhub, is considering selling Grubhub as orders using the service fall (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The company said it was exploring the introduction of a strategic partner or the partial or full sale of the U.S.-based food delivery service. Just Eat completed its acquisition of Grubhub last year a deal valued at $7.3 billion.” In a Wednesday call, the company reiterated that no decision had been made. Just Eat saw orders fall five percent in the U.S. compared to only a 1% percent decline globally in the first quarter of 2022. Orders had boomed during the pandemic prior to the recent decline.
Bonus Read: “How America’s Farmers Got Cut Out of the Supply Chain,” (NYT).
U.S. Society
Bonus Read: “How Loneliness Is Damaging Our Health,” (NYT).
Netflix Stock Prices Plunges as Service Reports It Lost 200,000 Subscribers
On Wednesday, as markets opened, the stock price for Netflix, the movie and TV streaming service, plunged, losing more than a third of its value (WSJ, NYT). Driving the plunge was Netflix’s report on Tuesday that it had lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter, the first time the company lost subscribers overall in a decade (WSJ, NYT). The Wall Street Journal notes that the plunge “is the second time the shares have tumbled this year. In January, Netflix shares slid more than 20% when the company said it expected to add a much smaller number of subscribers than it did one year prior.” The plunge may reflect a larger issue facing streaming services as signs emerge that a pandemic boom in use might be ending. However, it is also the result of Netflix’s decision to pull out of Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “The streaming service lost 700,000 subscribers when it pulled out of Russia after the Ukraine invasion. But that drop-off is dovetailing with broader viewership declines as pandemic restrictions recede and consumers increasingly find other entertainment options, and now the company expects another 2 million subscribers to fall off this quarter.” The Journal notes that Netflix was not alone in seeing its stock price fall, writing, “Several other streaming stocks fell Wednesday. Paramount Global was recently down 7%, and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. was off 5.2%. Walt Disney Co. retreated 4.6%, while Spotify Technology SA lost 9.2%.”
Student Absences Among Impacts of the Pandemic
The New York Times reports that millions of students across the United States have been chronically absent from school, one the ways the pandemic has impacted American society and the education system (NYT). The Times notes that chronic absence is generally defined as “missing 10 percent of the days in a school year, whether the absences are excused or not.” Hedy Chang, who directs Attendance Works, a national group focused on the issue, told the Times, “Chronic absence has skyrocketed.” The Times writes, “Rates of absenteeism can be hard to compare nationally because schools do not report the data in the same way, nor on the same timetable. But according to a December report from the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, which defined chronic absenteeism as missing 15 school days per year, the percentage of students who were on track to be chronically absent was about 22 percent — more than double the rate of chronically absent students before the pandemic.” Facing this challenge, some schools are seeking creative ways to boost attendance. Those efforts range from offering night school options to offering gift certificates for groceries and in one case eating crickets as an attendance boosting stunt. The Times writes that Michelle Martinez, a Family and Community Support Service Provider, “has performed eye-popping antics at pep rallies in order to encourage attendance. Last year, Ms. Martinez ate a chocolate-covered cricket. This year, she ate a salted one.” The Times adds, “The stunts were worth it, she said, if they brought more children to school.”
Bonus Read: “‘Severance’ and ‘Abbott Elementary’ Are Big Hits—and Reveal Our Complicated Feelings About Work,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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