Dear friend,

Welcome to Frontier, the monthly newsletter from the Future of Land and Housing Program at New America.

Here's what we've been up to: 

What We're Doing

New Report—Beyond Rebuilding: Planning for Better Managed Retreat

📑 Read the report.

By 2100, the impacts of climate change are projected to force over 20 million people away from the most vulnerable areas of the United States. But the government’s current strategy to move climate-vulnerable Americans—via post-disaster buyouts—doesn’t make sense at scale.

At the historical rate of buyouts, we estimate it would take roughly 4,000 years to help all threatened households move to safety. Of course, the U.S. doesn't have this luxury, as the ocean is already encroaching upon entire towns. Either the government must step up to more efficiently relocate such communities, or owners will eventually be forced to abandon their homes at near-total financial loss.

Last week, FLH released its latest report, Beyond Rebuilding: Planning for Better Managed Retreat, which lays out an ambitious plan to support millions of at-risk Americans steadily relocate in the coming decades, in a way that is financially feasible, community-led, and socioeconomically equitable. Read our recommendations here.

Towards a National Housing Loss Rate

Each year, an estimated 10 to 20 million Americans lose their homes through eviction and foreclosure, post-disaster displacement, and other less-studied forms of housing loss. And yet, the U.S. neither tracks housing loss rates nor holds decision-makers accountable for keeping it low.

On October 16th, FLH gathered a group of federal government leaders, housing experts, funders, and data scientists in Washington, DC to discuss the development of a National Housing Loss Rate—a rigorous and regularly-collected measure to understand how many families lose their homes each year. Together, we discussed the need for such a measure and brainstormed possible pathways to developing housing loss as a key indicator of social and economic well-being, similar to job loss. Stay tuned for more updates on this initiative.

FLH and Winston-Salem State Receive HUD Award to Research Small Dollar Mortgage Loans

📑 Read the press release.

FLH, in partnership with the Center for the Study of Economic Mobility (CSEM) at Winston-Salem State University, is one of three organizations to receive a grant from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to advance research focused on closing the racial homeownership gap. FLH and CSEM are excited to build on four years of joint research to investigate whether declining access to small dollar mortgage loans (i.e., loans less than $100,000) disproportionately impacts Black families in the U.S. relative to white families.

What We're Reading

FLH staff share what has stood out to them lately on land, housing, and property rights in the U.S. and internationally.

Sabiha Zainulbhai

Los Angeles is using AI to predict who might become homeless and help before they do: NPR details a first-of-its-kind program using artificial intelligence to predict and prevent housing loss in Los Angeles County. With $31 million in pandemic aid, the Department of Health Services tracks data across seven county agencies (e.g., emergency room visits, crisis care for mental health, sign-ups for public benefits like food aid) and uses machine learning to generate a list of at-risk households. These households are then assigned to a case manager, who reaches out using any means necessary—cold calls, letters, emails—to offer $4,000 to $6,000 over several months to cover rent, utilities, groceries, or other monthly expenses. The program has served 560 households to date, and has shown promise in its ability to keep people housed. If the program continues to reduce homelessness in Los Angeles, can this data-driven strategy provide a roadmap for other cities and counties in the United States? 

Tim Robustelli

How Cities Are Experimenting With Reparations In Urban Policy: Across the United States, cities are actively experimenting with policies that move towards reparations for African-Americans. This OpEd from Next City highlights two such local innovations from cities in the U.S. South with large Black communities. In Atlanta, which struggles with a severe housing shortage and a growing racial homeownership gap, the local land bank is mandated to acquire vacant, abandoned, and tax-delinquent properties and develop them into homes for low- and fixed-income residents. And in New Orleans, subsidized access to residential and community-wide solar power is helping to address racial disparities linked to energy burdens and homeownership rates. What we’re seeing, the authors argue, is the decentralization of reparations through city politics. Beyond more equitable land banking and transitions to renewable energy, are there other urban policy innovations that could work to repay the damages of slavery, segregation, and discrimination?

Jacob Kepes

Can anyone still make it as a country singer in Nashville?: Still the home of country music and the Country Music Hall of Fame, musicians and writers flock to Nashville for opportunity, yet a chance at fame is growing ever more difficult. Within the past few years, Nashville has grown tremendously, as have rent prices with the city experiencing one of the greatest rent increases in the country. With newer, wealthier residents flocking from other major cities around the U.S., those less fortunate are getting pushed out. Tourism, too, is pushing people out, as Nashville’s Broadway Street and out-of-town partiers bring in significant revenue. And as cost-of-living increases, incomes are declining in the age of streaming. Singers and songwriters earn fractions of a cent for every stream, making it increasingly difficult to make any money in music. Together, these factors are leading to a loss of creativity and artists in the area. In the face of these challenges, can Nashville maintain its reputation as Music City?

Thoughts on our work or where we're headed? Reach out to us at FLH@NewAmerica.org or tag us at @FLHatNewAmerica.

Until next month, the FLH Team.

About New America

New America is dedicated to renewing the promise of America, bringing us closer to our nation’s highest ideals. We’re a different kind of think tank: one dedicated to public problem solving. Our team of visionary researchers, changemakers, technologists, and storytellers study and seize the opportunities presented by dramatic social and technological change. We search for powerful ideas, wherever they are, and collaborate with civic innovators around the world to develop evidence-based solutions.

The Future of Land and Housing Program at New America aims to help solve today’s land and housing rights challenges, both in the United States and internationally. Through our research and writing, convening, and collaboration with civic innovators worldwide, we strive to connect new constituencies, shed light on underreported issues, and implement creative approaches in the property rights space.

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