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March 21, 2022 - Brief Issue 303
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. Surgeon General Says Don’t Panic Over European Cases While Fauci Predicts Uptick (Health & Science)
Vaccines Remain Effective, Says CDC Data (Health & Science)
Black Adult Hospitalizations in U.S. at Highest Rate During Omicron (Health & Science)
Moderna Seeks Approval for Fourth Shot (Health & Science)
CDC Reports Fewer Deaths After Data Correction (Health & Science)
China Reports Deaths from Omicron Outbreak for First Time; Tweaks Zero Covid Policy (Around the World)
Canada Scales Back Travel Restrictions (Around the World)
Restrictions Lifted Across Europe (Around the World)
States Close Testing Sites (U.S. Government & Politics)
Lenders Lobby for Restarting Student Loan Payments (U.S. Government & Politics)
White House Maintains Biden’s Weekly Testing Regimen (U.S. Government & Politics)
Older Americans Poised to Revive Spending (U.S. Economy)
Canadian Pacific Railway Work Stoppage Adds New Supply Challenges (U.S. Economy)
Southern Health Care System in Crisis (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 79,734,867 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 971,162 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 558,544,815 vaccine doses, with 76.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 65.4% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.2% have received at least one dose, and 75.3% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 44.5% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 470,858,002 cases of coronavirus, with 6,078,500 deaths.
U.S. Surgeon General Says Don’t Panic Over European Cases While Fauci Predicts Uptick
The U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said on Sunday that there was no need to panic over the increase in Covid-19 cases in Europe, saying “our focus should be on preparation, not panic” (Politico). Speaking to host Trace Gallagher on “Fox News Sunday,” Murthy said “We should be prepared that Covid hasn’t gone away. There may be rises and falls in the months ahead, but here’s the key: Our goal is to keep people out of the hospital, it’s to save their lives. We have more tools to do that than ever before.” Throughout the pandemic, a rise in cases in Europe has been a harbinger for another wave in the United States.
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top advisor on the pandemic, warned that the spike in infections in Europe would be mirrored in the U.S. soon despite the current decrease in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths being seen across the country (NYT). It is “no time at all to declare victory, because this virus has fooled us before and we really must be prepared for the possibility that we might get another variant,” Dr. Fauci said on ABC’s “This Week.” “And we don’t want to be caught flat-footed on that.” Health experts are currently closely monitoring the subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2, which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, and is behind the surge in Europe (WaPo).
Vaccines Remain Effective, Says CDC Data
Coronavirus vaccines used in the United States remain highly effective at preventing the worst outcomes from infections even against the Omicron variant, according to a new report released Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (WaPo). Protection against mild illness did wane over time, but the mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech still provided protection against death and needing mechanical ventilation. The study showed that those with a third dose of the vaccine saw even more protection. The Washington Post summarizes: “As omicron became the dominant variant, the vaccine was 79 percent effective in preventing ventilation or death for people who received the initial series of two doses. The benefit was even greater for people who received a booster shot: During that same time period, the vaccine was 94 percent effective for those people.”
Black Adult Hospitalizations in U.S. at Highest Rate During Omicron
Black adults in the United States were hospitalized at higher rates this winter than during any other time in the pandemic, according to a report by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Friday. During the Omicron surge, which started in mid-December and continued through January, Black adults were four times as likely to be hospitalized compared with white adults during the same period (WaPo). The report noted that fewer Black adults had been vaccinated compared with white adults: as of Jan. 26, only 39.6% of Black adults had received a first dose and 43.9% had received a booster shot. Meanwhile, 47.3% of white adults had received a first dose and 54.5% had received a booster shot.
Moderna Seeks Approval for Fourth Shot
On Thursday Moderna requested emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a fourth dose of its Covid-19 vaccine as a booster for adults over 18 years of age. Currently, a single booster dose of Moderna’s shot is authorized. The request, which was made two days after Pfizer-BioNTech made a similar request, is much broader than the Pfizer-BioNTech one, which was for an additional booster dose to people over the age of 65. Moderna said its request for approval for all adults was meant “to provide flexibility” to the CDC to determine the “appropriate use” of a second booster dose (USAToday).
CDC Reports Fewer Deaths After Data Correction
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention corrected data on Friday which resulted in a reduction in the death toll in all age groups, including children. The agency told Reuters that it adjusted its mortality data on March 14 because the algorithm was counting deaths that were not Covid-19 related, which resulted in the removal of 72,277 deaths across 26 states, including 416 pediatric deaths. The reduction cut the estimate of deaths in children by 24% to 1,341 as of March 18, according to Reuters.
Around the World
China Reports Deaths from Omicron Outbreak for First Time; Tweaks Zero Covid Policy
Mainland China reported the first deaths from Covid-19 in over a year. Two patients in the northeastern province of Jilin died of Covid-19, China’s National Health Commission said Saturday, marking the first recorded deaths since Jan. 26, 2021. The country is battling a wave of new infections of the Omicron variant that has prompted harsh restrictions and lockdowns in many areas. In Jilin, 24 million residents are barred from leaving the province and residents in the capital city, Changchun, have been ordered to stay indoors and are permitted outside once every other day to buy food (WSJ).
Beijing has shifted its policies to be more precise as a result of the current outbreak and the resulting economic impact of the harsh restrictions. Last week, President Xi Jinping urged officials to consider the impact of restrictions on people’s livelihoods–-the first time since the pandemic began that he has done so (NYT). Xi said officials should strive for “maximum effect” with “minimum cost” in controlling the virus. But health officials have said that narrowing the focus of restrictions doesn’t mean they are less strict, and indeed, the slight shift is barely perceptible compared to what other nations are doing. For example, China will now allow the use of at-home testing kits and allow people to report positive results to local authorities. Officials are also sending people who test positive to centralized quarantine facilities instead of hospitals.
Canada Scales Back Travel Restrictions
Canada will allow fully vaccinated travelers from abroad to enter the country without showing proof of a recent negative coronavirus test as of April 1, the government announced Thursday. Air travelers could still be selected at random to take PCR tests upon arrival, however, and unvaccinated or partially vaccinated travelers will still be required to test one day before flying. “Adjustments to Canada’s border measures are made possible by a number of factors, including Canada’s high vaccination rate, the increasing availability and use of rapid tests to detect infection, decreasing hospitalizations and growing domestic availability of treatments for Covid-19,” Jean-Yves Duclos, the country’s health minister, said at a news conference. “As vaccination levels and health care system capacity improve, we will continue to consider further easing of measures at the borders — and when to adjust those measures — to keep the people in Canada safe,” Mr. Duclos said (NYT).
Restrictions Lifted Across Europe
Even as many countries experience a record surge in coronavirus infections, restrictions meant to curb the spread of the virus are being lifted across Europe (Guardian). In Germany, most pandemic controls were lifted on Sunday even as a new record for daily cases was hit on Friday, with 300,000 new infections recorded. Germany has also been recording daily deaths of over 200 per day for several weeks. In Austria, the health minister, Johannes Rauch, announced on Friday that medical masks must be worn indoors again due to the rise in cases. But, at the same time, the country is considering reducing quarantine times because of the severe shortage of healthcare workers that has led to postponing medical care. In France, most restrictions were lifted last Monday, including the indoor mask mandate for everywhere except on public transit. The number of new cases rose by 25% since last week but French health authorities said the health care system was able to deal with the number of patients.
U.S. Government & Politics
States Close Testing Sites
The New York Times reports that some states are closing testing sites even as concerns circulate about a potential coming surge in cases (NYT). The Times writes, “The closures arrive only a few months after Americans were forced to wait hours in long lines for free tests or to pay for testing. New Hampshire closed all state-run sites on Tuesday. Massachusetts will have closed a majority by April 1. South Carolina has been gradually closing them this month; Utah has been doing so since February.” Health departments have pointed to declining demand for mass testing, and are shifting back to strategies reliant on doctors offices, hospitals, and pharmacies to provide testing. Cassandra Pierre, medical director of public health programs at Boston Medical Center, told the Times that states won’t be able to ramp up testing in time in the event of a surge in cases. The Times writes, “For instance, Colorado health officials have said they could reopen mass testing sites within four to five weeks. In that time, Dr. Pierre said, the peak of a surge may have already passed and left hospitals overwhelmed with severely ill patients.”
Lenders Lobby for Restarting Student Loan Payments
Politico reports that private lenders are “vigorously” lobbying for President Biden to restart payments on student loans, which have been frozen by executive action for two years as a pandemic-response measure (Politico). If Biden does not extend the moratorium on payments, they will restart on May 1. Politico writes, “SoFi, one of the largest student refinance companies, told investors earlier this month that the Biden administration’s last extension of the payment freeze in December was expected to reduce the company’s profits by $20 million to $25 million in the first quarter of this year.” Politico reports, “SoFi and CommonBond, another student loan refinance lender, in recent weeks have shopped around language for the next government funding package that’s aimed at pressuring the administration into narrowing the relief to cover fewer federal student loan borrowers, according to a copy of the proposal obtained by POLITICO.”
White House Maintains Biden’s Weekly Testing Regimen
The White House is maintaining its weekly testing regimen for President Biden despite questions from reporters about why he is not tested daily (Politico). White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki stated, “weekly testing cadence remains as it has been.” Politico writes, “Psaki was pressed repeatedly during her daily briefing on whether the president would be taking another Covid test this week, and why Biden isn’t tested daily. The questions followed second gentleman Doug Emhoff’s positive test, and then Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin’s Covid case, which on Wednesday night caused him to leave in the middle of the Irish Funds Gala, where Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were in attendance.” Pskai stated, “He was not tested today. He was tested last Sunday. Neither of these individuals were considered close contacts.”
Bonus Reads: “Can Ashish Jha, ‘a Comforting Voice,’ Tamp Down Covid’s Political Divide?,” (NYT); “Can Eric Adams Cheerlead New Yorkers Past the Pandemic?,” (NYT).
U.S. Economy
Older Americans Poised to Revive Spending
The Wall Street Journal reports that while Americans aged 65 and older spent at a slower rate than younger Americans during the pandemic, they are now poised to increase their spending (WSJ). Pointing to Visa’s index of credit and debt spending momentum, the Journal writes, “The index for the older group was more than 6 percentage points lower on average than spending by the groups age 45 to 64 years old and 25 to 44 years old from March 2020 through January 2022.” However, the Journal notes, “In February, the spending index for those age 65 and older rose above that of 45- to 64-year-olds, and was just 3.2 percentage points lower than the youngest group, which typically has the highest spending momentum.” Constantine Yannelis, assistant professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told the Journal, that the demographics has “much more available cash on hand, it’s quite likely they’re going to boost consumer spending, particularly on experiential categories they’ve not been able to patronize the last two years.” The Journal notes, “The size and the wealth of America’s older population has grown in recent years. The number of Americans who are 65 or older increased by more than a third in the decade through 2019, according to the Census Bureau. They accounted for nearly 17% of the population in 2020, a share that is expected to rise to more than 20% by 2030. U.S. household wealth—which includes assets such as real estate and equities minus debt—rose 38.1% among people aged over 70 from the first quarter of 2020 through the final quarter of 2021, according to the Federal Reserve. That was a slightly faster increase than the 37.1% rise in total U.S. household wealth during the pandemic.”
Canadian Pacific Railway Work Stoppage Adds New Supply Challenges
On Sunday, the Canadian Pacific Railway came to a standstill amid a work stoppage, adding a new challenge to supply chains that have already faced disruptions by the pandemic among other factors (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, which represents more than 3,000 conductors, engineers and yard workers at Canadian Pacific, issued a statement near midnight Sunday Eastern time stating that the railway initiated the lockout after the union failed to meet the company’s deadline for approving a new contract.” Patrick Waldron, a spokesman for Canadian Pacific, stated, “The actions of the teamsters’ leadership last night were dishonest and irresponsible. The union falsely claimed that Canadian Pacific initiated a lockout. In fact it was the union that initiated the work stoppage.” The Journal notes that fear of a strike has shaped political conditions in Canada, writing, “The prospect of a strike prompted a number of businesses, customers and politicians to publicly urge the Canadian government to introduce back-to-work legislation that would force striking workers to return to their jobs. Such a law would require a vote of Canada’s parliament, which is set to convene Monday after a break.” The Journal notes, “Canadian Pacific is the sixth-largest freight railway in North America, shipping goods across Canada and south to central U.S. states. It is the primary shipper of fertilizers such as Canadian potash, which is mined in the province of Saskatchewan.” Last week Politico reported on the potential for a strike, and how it put President Biden in an awkward position compared to recent pandemic-related supply disruptions given the importance of labor unions to the Democratic coalition (Politico).
Bonus Read: “U.S. Stocks Extend Yearslong Winning Streak,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Southern Health Care System in Crisis
Politico reports on the crisis that is facing southern states’ and rural areas’ health care systems amid the pandemic (Politico). Politico writes, “Some of the biggest disparities in the Covid-19 crisis aren’t just among red states and blue states, or Black, white and Latino populations; they’re between rural and urban communities. Of the 50 counties with the highest Covid deaths per capita, 24 are within 40 miles of a hospital that has closed, according to a POLITICO analysis in late January. Nearly all 50 counties were in rural areas. Rural hospital closures have been accelerating, with 181 since 2005 — and over half of those happening since 2015, according to data from the University of North Carolina. But that may be just the beginning. Over 450 rural hospitals are at risk of closure, according to an analysis by the Chartis Group, one of the nation’s largest independent health care advisory firms.” Politico profiles the crisis in Haywood County, Tennessee. Politico writes, “Haywood County, tinted blue in most elections, has a middling vaccination rate by national standards, but it was still higher than surrounding counties. Nonetheless, the number of people who died of Covid in Haywood County is in the 97th percentile nationally — well above many nearby counties. Overall, rural communities have seen almost twice as many deaths per capita as metropolitan ones.” Politico reports, “Tennessee lost over 1,200 staffed hospital beds between 2010 and 2020 despite a population that grew by over half a million, according to the American Hospital Directory and census data. Mississippi, with the most Covid-19 deaths per capita, lost over 1,100 beds over that decade. Alabama, second only to Mississippi in per-capita deaths from the virus, lost over 800.”
Bonus Read: “It's a 'unicorn year' for mid-income taxpayers, thanks to pandemic aid,” (Politico).
Analysis & Arguments
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