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Why This Is a Good Year to Be a Renter
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Families could finally catch a break on one of the biggest bills they may pay each month: the rent. The sting of rent inflation hit tenants hard the past two years, due in part to record demand and not enough supply. The surge in monthly rent for a primary residence peaked in March 2023 at 8.8% higher than the year before, according to the Labor Department. Now the outlook for renters is improving after a wave of new construction and a rise in vacancies, Veronica Dagher reports.
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Rent inflation for studios to two-bedrooms in the top 50 metros declined for seven consecutive months, with the national median asking price falling to $1,717 in November 2023, according to Realtor.com.
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The U.S. consumer-price index for December is expected to increase 0.2% from one month earlier and 3.2% from one year earlier. Excluding food and energy, the CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% and 3.8%. (8:30 a.m. ET)
U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 210,000 in the week ended Jan. 6 from 202,000 one week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economic outlook at 12:40 p.m. ET.
The Treasury Department releases U.S. federal budget deficit data for December at 2 p.m. ET.
China's consumer- and producer-price indexes for December are out at 8:30 p.m. ET.
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The WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich is being wrongfully detained in Russia after he was arrested while on a reporting trip and accused of espionage—a charge the Journal and the U.S. government vehemently deny. Follow the latest coverage, sign up for an email alert, and learn how you can use social media to support Evan.
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The Latest on the Economy
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What to Watch in the Consumer-Price Index Report
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Economists expect headline consumer inflation to tick up in December but underlying price pressures to ease, fueling hopes that the economy can dodge a recession.
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Forecasts call for overall inflation to rise 0.2% from a month earlier and 3.2% from a year earlier. That compares with November’s 0.1% monthly gain and marks a small acceleration from that month’s 3.1% annual increase.
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Core prices, which strip out food and energy, are expected to climb 0.3% and 3.8%, respectively. That would be the same monthly increase as November, and a modest slowing from that month’s 4% annual increase.
Numbers at or near those levels won’t change the Federal Reserve's plan to hold its policy rate steady at the next meeting, Jan. 30-31, but some analysts think rate cuts could occur after that if monthly inflation readings remain mild. WSJ's Gwynn Guilford has what to watch in Thursday's report.
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Remember when lumber prices went through the roof? West Fraser Timber, America's largest lumber producer, said it would close a sawmill in Florida, curtail operations indefinitely at another in Arkansas and take a $50 million restructuring charge due to weak markets for wood products. BMO Capital Markets estimates that the cuts amount to about 4% of West Fraser's output and roughly 0.4% of North American lumber production, Ryan Dezember reports.
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America's Efficient Oil Boom
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U.S. oil production started the year near a record pace. Field production of crude oil held at 13.2 million barrels a day in the week ended Jan. 5, the same as a week earlier and just below the record 13.3 million barrel level reached earlier in December, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Economists say last year's surge in output is helping counter OPEC's production cuts and rising tensions in the Middle East.
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What's not setting a record: Oil field employment and investment. Instead, oil companies are squeezing more out of existing wells and workers. "A good chunk of the recent net gain in U.S. oil production is attributed to productivity gains," said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
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SEC Approves Bitcoin ETFs for Everyday Investors
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted Wednesday to allow mainstream investors to buy and sell bitcoin as easily as stocks and mutual funds, a decision hailed by the industry as a game changer. The SEC decision clears the way for the first U.S. exchange-traded funds that hold bitcoin to be sold to the public, Vicky Ge Huang and Paul Kiernan report.
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Here’s How the New Bitcoin ETFs Will Work (Read)
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Why the Government Might Shut Down if No Border Deal Reached
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All of Washington’s biggest political fights are converging at the border. WSJ's Siobhan Hughes and Michelle Hackman walk through the policy differences and political machinations—over spending, immigration and security—that are complicating talks on legislation needed to keep the government open.
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Texas Teachers Can Earn $100,000. But There’s a Catch.
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When Texas rolled out a bold new way to boost teacher pay based on merit, the state touted it as a path to a six-figure salary—a benchmark that most of America’s teachers never reach in their careers. Four years later, nearly 1,000 Texas teachers earn $100,000—far less than 1% of teachers in the state—new data shows. More than half of the state’s school districts haven’t even signed on to join the merit-based system. WSJ's Sara Randazzo writes that the effort has been slow to gain traction partly because the loudest opposition comes from teachers themselves.
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Real Time Economics comes to you from WSJ reporters and editors around the world. Today's issue was curated and edited by Jeff Sparshott (@jeffsparshott) and Greg Ip (@greg_ip) in Washington, D.C., and editors in London.
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