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April 25, 2022 - Brief Issue 318
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. Nears A Million Deaths; Quarter of U.S. Deaths Probably Preventable with Vaccination, Says New Analysis (Health & Science)
In U.S., Routine Childhood Vaccinations Slipped During Pandemic (Health & Science)
Scientists Hunt for Ways to Improve Coronavirus Vaccines (Health & Science)
A Mental Health Crisis Among U.S. Teens (Health & Science)
Global Vaccination Drive Slows (Around the World)
Covid Deaths Tripled in Shanghai Over the Weekend (Around the World)
North Korea Rejects Global Vaccination Effort (Around the World)
Israel’s Former Covid Czar Calls for End to Airport Tests (Around the World)
Congressional Return Sets Stage for Fights Over Coronavirus Spending, Economy, Fed Nominees, and a Focus on the Economy (U.S. Government & Politics)
Cuellar Criticizes Biden’s Planned Halt of Title 42 Use (U.S. Government & Politics)
Mississippi Bans Covid Vaccine Mandates (U.S. Government & Politics)
Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level Since 2011 (U.S. Economy)
Apple Store Workers Seek to Unionize After Successful Efforts at Starbucks, Amazon (U.S. Economy)
Inflationary Pressures and Pandemic Supply Chain Disruptions as Seen Through a $30 Price Increase in a Bra (U.S. Economy)
Raleigh Rallies From Pandemic’s Impact (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 80,984,943 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 991,254 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 572,595,338 vaccine doses, with 77.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.1% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.9% have received at least one dose, and 76% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 509,568,713 cases of coronavirus, with 6,218,338 deaths.
U.S. Nears A Million Deaths; Quarter of U.S. Deaths Probably Preventable with Vaccination, Says New Analysis
The U.S. is approaching its millionth death from Covid-19 and scientists say that the official number is likely an undercount and it’s possible that a million Americans have already died from the coronavirus. The Peterson Center on Healthcare and Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released a new analysis that tries to quantify the effects of vaccination. They estimate that since June 2021–when every American adult had access to coronavirus vaccines–just over 234,000 unvaccinated Americans died who could have lived had they been vaccinated. According to the Washington Post, “KFF analyzed the monthly death toll, parsing out vaccination status and controlling both for age (older Americans are still at increased risk of death even when vaccinated) and for the imperfect efficacy of the vaccines. That allowed them to estimate the number of preventable deaths per month from last June through March.” KFF found that from June 2021 through March 2022, about 61% of Covid-19 deaths were probably preventable had the decedent been vaccinated.
In U.S., Routine Childhood Vaccinations Slipped During Pandemic
Kindergartners in the United States fell behind on routine childhood vaccinations during the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Experts attribute the dip to skipped checkups and general vaccine hesitancy stemming from suspicion around the coronavirus vaccines. During the 2020-21 school year, about 94% of kindergartners had the required vaccines, down a full percentage point from the previous year and below the 95% target that the CDC sets, raising fears about life-threatening childhood illnesses like measles (NYT). “This means there are 35,000 more children in the United States during this time period without documentation of complete vaccination against common diseases,” Dr. Georgina Peacock, the acting director of the C.D.C.’s immunization services division, said at a news conference on Thursday. “This is further evidence of how pandemic-related disruptions to education and health care could have lingering consequences for children.”
Scientists Hunt for Ways to Improve Coronavirus Vaccines
Researchers and pharmaceutical companies are testing whether new approaches to the coronavirus vaccine can keep up with the variants and persuade those who are hesitant about the vaccine to finally get vaccinated. But it’s not clear if changes are even necessary at this point and there’s still debate about whether additional booster shots will be needed and for whom. “I’m very concerned about booster fatigue” causing a loss of confidence in vaccines that still offer very strong protection against COVID-19’s worst outcomes, said Dr. Beth Bell of the University of Washington, an adviser to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (AP).
There is also pressure to develop vaccines that are better at fighting off even mild illness. Scientists have been testing new approaches like combination shots and nasal drops. Combination vaccines against the coronavirus would be modeled after the annual flu vaccine, which offers protection against three or four different strains in one shot. Nasal vaccines could be the answer to preventing milder infections as they’re more targeted to the location where the virus enters the body, but they’re difficult to develop and producing them for mass consumption could still be years away. “When I think about what would make me get a second booster, I actually would want to prevent infection,” said Dr. Grace Lee of Stanford University, who chairs CDC’s immunization advisory committee. “I think we need to do better.”
A Mental Health Crisis Among U.S. Teens
The decline in mental health among U.S. teenagers started before the coronavirus pandemic, but the pandemic has intensified it. Research by the federal government has shown that teenagers are getting less sleep and exercise and spending less time in-person with friends and at the same time, emergency-room visits for mood disorders, suicide, and self-harm among teens increased drastically from 2007 to 2018. According to the New York Times, “The crisis is often attributed to the rise of social media, but solid data on the issue is limited, the findings are nuanced and often contradictory and some adolescents appear to be more vulnerable than others to the effects of screen time.”
Around the World
Global Vaccination Drive Slows
Vaccination rates in most low-income countries around the world are still short of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of 70% immunization in every nation and some public health experts worry that the target will never be met, let alone met by the WHO’s deadline of June 2022. “The reality is that there is a loss of momentum,” said Dr. Isaac Adewole, a former health minister of Nigeria who now serves as a consultant for the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NYT). Only a few of the world’s 82 poorest countries have reached the 70% vaccination threshold; many have a vaccination rate under 20%. By comparison, two-thirds of the world’s richest countries have reached 70%. The U.S. is at 66% vaccination. But with the coronavirus pandemic still far from over, public health experts say that abandoning the global effort to reach a 70% vaccination rate in every country could have serious repercussions, including the emergence of new variants.
Covid Deaths Tripled in Shanghai Over the Weekend
Deaths from Covid-19 more than tripled in Shanghai over the weekend, with 39 patients dying on Saturday, which was over three times Friday’s death toll. While the number is low compared to global standards, China’s zero-covid policy is being put to the test as the outbreak continues (WSJ). Large parts of Shanghai have been in lockdown for weeks and other cities around the country have been disrupted by restrictions and lockdown measures as well, causing economic disruption and public discontent. Bonus Read: “Student poetry contest in China becomes unexpected outlet for dissent” (WaPo).
North Korea Rejects Global Vaccination Effort
North Korea remains one of two countries in the world that have not administered any coronavirus vaccines. North Korea repeatedly rejected the vaccines that were offered to them by COVAX, the United Nations-backed global vaccine effort, and officials said this month that those vaccines are now no longer available (WaPo). North Korea remains in a strict pandemic lockdown that has closed its borders except to allow for minimal trade with China. The result is a worsening food crisis for its residents. Tomás Ojea Quintana, the United Nations’ special rapporteur on North Korean human rights said in a special report that the country’s “covid restrictions, including border closures, appear to have prevented an outbreak inside the country, though likely at considerable cost to the wider health situation and further exacerbating economic deprivation.” But the situation is unclear to outside observers because the country has not allowed diplomats, humanitarian aid groups, or tourists to enter the country.
Israel’s Former Covid Czar Calls for End to Airport Tests
Israel’s former coronavirus czar, Ronni Gamzu, said on Saturday that Covid checks for those entering the country should end. Currently, everyone arriving in Israel is required to isolate for 24 hours or test negative for the coronavirus upon arrival. The tests cost anywhere from $25 to $50 depending on the type. Gamzu said the tests discover only a “small percentage” of confirmed infections and said the burden on the travelers was “unreasonable” (Times of Israel). “This is not some sort of a magic tool that solves the problem,” he said. “It should be said with all honesty that this is a pointless measure whose total effect is marginal at best.”
U.S. Government & Politics
Congressional Return Sets Stage for Fights Over Coronavirus Spending, Economy, Fed Nominees, and a Focus on the Economy
Congress is set to return from recess this week, and as lawmakers make their way back to DC, they are preparing for a busy week as fights over coronavirus spending, the economy, and Federal Reserve nominations heat up - all with an eye on the coming midterms (WaPo). The Washington Post reports that Democrats’ “list” of agenda items for their return “includes a need to confirm a slate of nominees for the Federal Reserve, finalize about $10 billion in stalled pandemic aid and refashion President Biden’s signature social spending initiative, which has been bogged down for more than a year.” The Post notes, “Each of the debates promises to train the Capitol’s attention on the vexing state of the U.S. economy: Unemployment is low, yet employers’ labor needs remain high; wages have grown while prices are on a steep incline.” Maryland Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen told the Post, “My sense is this is a make-or-break moment,” adding, “This will be the moment people have to look at each other, eyeball to eyeball, and make a determination of whether we’ll move forward.” Meanwhile, Republicans are counting on anger over inflation to fuel what they perceive to be a significant opportunity for them in the midterms. Speaking to “Fox News Sunday,” Republican Representative Michael McCaul, for example, stated, “I predict we’re going to get probably at least 40 seats because this president has been so unpopular when it comes to inflation.”
Cuellar Criticizes Biden’s Planned Halt of Title 42 Use
Texas Representative Henry Cuellar is among a group of Democrats voicing opposition to President Biden’s plan to halt use of the so-called Title 42 authority, which uses a public health order to allow for deportation at the border (Politico). Speaking to "Fox News Sunday," Cuellar stated, “Yes, they’re listening to the immigration activists,” adding, “But my question is, who’s listening to the men and women in green and in blue? And more importantly, who’s listening to the border communities, the sheriffs, the landowners, the rest of the people that live on the border?.” Cuellar specifically criticized the administration’s messaging, saying, “How can we have the federal public emergency extended to July 15 and say there’s a pandemic going on in the United States, but at the border, everything’s fine and just let people in into the United States. … Those are mixed messages.” Politico writes, “Biden had long promised to revoke Title 42. But even as the state of the pandemic has improved in recent months, Democrats fear the policy’s repeal could exacerbate a precipitous increase in migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border and expose the party to Republican attacks ahead of the midterm elections in November.” Bonus Read: “Border visit backfires on vulnerable Senate Dem,” (Politico).
Mississippi Bans Covid Vaccine Mandates
On Friday, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves signed HB 1509 into law, banning state and local agencies in Mississippi from withholding services or firing people who refuse vaccination for Covid-19 (AP). The Associated Press writes, “The ban applies to state agencies, city and county governments and schools, community colleges and universities. COVID-19 vaccination mandates have not been widespread in Mississippi, but some lawmakers said they were acting against the possibility of government overreach.” Reeves tweeted, “Government shouldn’t be in the business of forcing Americans to choose between the COVID-19 vaccine & putting food on their tables, sending their kids to school, or visiting a small business. I’m proud to sign HB 1509 which protects Mississippians’ medical and religious freedoms.” A press release concluded with the line: “While some states have required vaccination passports which limit the ability of Americans to participate in daily life as a full member of society, this legislation ensures that will never happen in Mississippi.” The AP notes, “More than 12,400 Mississippi residents have died of COVID-19 since the pandemic began two years ago, according to the state Health Department. Mississippi has one of the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the United States. About 52% of eligible residents in the state are fully vaccinated, according to a Mayo Clinic vaccine tracker. The national rate is about 66%.”
U.S. Economy
Bonus Read, “Workers Are Changing Jobs, Raking In Big Raises—and Keeping Inflation High,” (WSJ).
Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level Since 2011
On Thursday, Freddie Mac released new data that shows that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen to their highest point since 2011 (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “the 30-year fixed-rate average increased for the seventh week in a row, rising to 5.11 percent with an average 0.8 points. (A point is a fee paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount. It is in addition to the interest rate.) It was 5 percent a week ago and 2.97 percent a year ago. The 30-year fixed rate hasn’t been this high since February 2011.” The increases are driven in part by the Federal Reserve’s planned rate increases as part of their effort to fight inflation driven by the pandemic and other factors. George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com, told the Post, “The Freddie Mac fixed rate for a 30-year loan kept marching up this week, following the continued surge in the 10-year Treasury,” adding, “Markets are also pricing in a likely 50-basis-point hike at the central bank’s next meeting on May 4th, so we expect mortgage rates to continue to rise.” The rising rates have led some to voice concerns about the potential impact on the housing market. Bonus Read: “The Fed Wants to Raise Rates Quickly, but May Not Know Where to Stop,” (WSJ).
Apple Store Workers Seek to Unionize After Successful Efforts at Starbucks, Amazon
Having seen successful pandemic-era unionization votes at Starbucks and a Staten Island Amazon warehouse, Apple Store workers are among the latest looking to unionize (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Several Apple stores have shown interest in unionizing, according to organizers. Workers from a store in Atlanta last week filed for a union election with the National Labor Relations Board, the agency confirmed, and could soon approve a vote. Apple employees at a New York store are also aiming to file for an election, according to organizers.” The Journal notes, “The effort to unionize comes as a historically tight labor market, as well as worker unrest in some industries because of the pandemic, has shifted some power to rank and file employees.” Bonus Read: “From Amazon to Apple, tech giants turn to old-school union busting,” (WaPo).
Inflationary Pressures and Pandemic Supply Chain Disruptions as Seen Through a $30 Price Increase in a Bra
The Wall Street Journal breaks down the many inflationary pressures at work in the economy through the lens of lingerie company Journelle’s decision this year to raise the price of its Natalia Underwire Bra by $30 from a years old price of $68 to $98 (WSJ). Journelle co-owner Guido Campello said that they raised the price despite knowing some retailers would not be able to sell the bra at the new price, saying of the retailers, “They knew they wouldn’t be able to sell it at the higher price.” The Journal writes, “An unusually large number of inflationary forces are converging on bras, which in Journelle’s case can have as many as 27 components. While the Natalia bra is an extreme case, it shows the stress manufacturers are facing as they navigate rising costs rippling through the global supply chain.” One factor is rising energy prices in part due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Journal reports, “The energy costs of Journelle’s Italian lace supplier have quadrupled since 2019, Mr. Campello said. The supplier has passed along some of those increases to Journelle, which is paying as much as 40% more for lace than it did three years ago. The elastic trim is also 40% more expensive over the same period.” The underwire itself increased in cost 20% as well, and paper costs lined to shipping have also increased in unpredictable ways. Changes in shipping costs have also reshaped Journelle’s supply chain. The Journal writes, “Journelle is changing the way it does business. In January, it pulled out of Asia and now sources most bra components from Europe. Tunisian factories supply its molded cups. The metal rings, wires and boning come from Italy. Even though production in Europe is more expensive than in Asia, Journelle is saving money by reducing shipping costs, which have skyrocketed.” All this comes amid changes in demand tied to the pandemic. The Journal writes, “The surge in costs comes as bra sales have rebounded from the depths of the pandemic, when many women stopped wearing the undergarments while sheltering at home. Bra sales totaled $10.2 billion in 2021, a 36% increase over 2020 and 24% higher than in 2019, according to market-research firm NPD Group.” The Journal also notes that demand changes during the pandemic intersected with the role of inflation to reshape the market, “Some lingerie brands benefited from the shift to more comfortable bras during the pandemic. ‘Wirefree and bralettes have fewer components so they are less expensive to make,’ said Sharon Leighton, president of PVH Corp.’s underwear group, which includes the Calvin Klein, Warner’s and True & Co. brands.”
Bonus Read: “Four hidden reasons food prices are crazy right now,” (WaPo).
U.S. Society
Raleigh Rallies From Pandemic’s Impact
The Wall Street Journal reports on how Raleigh, North Carolina has bounced back from the pandemic’s economist impact (WSJ). The pandemic hit Raleigh hard. The Journal explains, “In 2020, the pandemic emptied out Raleigh’s central business district. Some downtown businesses kept plywood boards covering their windows for months, after protests following the death of George Floyd sparked vandalism downtown. More than 10,000 tourism jobs were lost in the surrounding county, dealing a major blow to one of the country’s strongest economic regions.” However, the Journal adds, “Now Raleigh is back. The metropolitan area rose to No. 3 in an annual examination of U.S. labor markets conducted by The Wall Street Journal, after ranking No. 21 in 2020. In 2021 its civilian labor force expanded by more than 30,000, and there were big gains in wages as well as jobs. The leisure and hospitality industry surged as business and travel restrictions were lifted. Several big-name companies announced major expansions, funding or plans to build new operations in the region, from Fortnite maker Epic Games Inc. to tech giants Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google.” The economic boom helped drive a real estate boom. The Journal notes that Raleigh’s bounce back benefited from its lower cost of living compared to cities like New York and its proximity to North Carolina State, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, and Duke University, which have long helped boost tech company interest in the city. However, the Journal emphasizes that it took the widespread availability of vaccines for the tech industry to combine with increased leisure spending to reinvigorate the economy.
Bonus Reads: “Rents are rising everywhere. See how much prices are up in your area,” (WaPo); “As Pandemic Aid Ends, Struggling Families Face a Housing Nightmare,” (WaPo).
Analysis & Arguments
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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.
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