Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 3, March/2022

Brought to you by CPG

Supported by KAS

Dear Readers,

This second issue of the Europe Monthly comes amid the ongoing war in Ukraine which brings along with all the sorrows of war and invasion a range of open questions whose answer will  concern not only the future of Europe but those of the world at large. Insofar, transformative change to the worse is looming, while the most possible scenarios for the near future are hinting at further escalation on an already critical level of the developments.

In some respects, the outcome of the crisis might well lead to a clearly winning and a clearly losing side, - to an extent that might change the European balances of power in a way unprecedented since 1989. In other regards, all sides are losing already. Not without reason, some observers are speaking of a mutually assured economic destruction.

Inevitably, sanctions on Russia will have global effects, especially in the West. Russia is, after all, the world´s second largest producer of natural gas, the third largest exporter of crude oil, a leading exporter of fertilizer, grain, and aluminum; the second largest copper and the largest palladium exporter, a major exporter of platinum, gold, coal, steel and so on. With dependence on these commodities and a further disrupted supply in often already tight markets, the expectable increase of the current inflation, lowering economic growth, and spreading uncertainty will likely affect the global economy with dangerous impact.    

Russia, however, will be hit hardest by these sanctions whose teeth are biting deep already. Removing Russian banks from SWIFT and freezing sovereign debt aims at the rouble and the heart of the Russian economy. If sufficiently successful, these sanctions might bring down not only Russia but also President Putin’s regime.

From Putin’s perspective, Russia stood with her back against a wall when he started the invasion. The threat scenario was, however, one that had formed over years and was still supposed to only gradually endanger Russian security in the future. Now, with the West entering in a state of war in all but direct military operations as a response to Russia´s attack, Putin and Russia are facing the threat of an imminent defeat of historical dimensions. Against this backdrop, Putin´s warning that “Russia's response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences as you have never faced in your history” might not be taken as a bluff, especially after he transferred Russia´s nuclear forces – and thus the most devastating weapons Russia has - to a “special mode of combat duty”.

This adds only the worst to a list of possible escalations though, that is including hybrid warfare against the West or a disruption of energy supply for Europe. Also, in Ukraine, increasing Russian pressure seems likely. While Russia needs to quickly establish control, it had, until now, to avoid high humanitarian costs with regard of both its own citizens and the international public. While Putin might feel he has to go all in now, Russia has still many ways to step-up its military efforts. It has, after all, used only about a third of the forces it had amassed and did not yet use its military arsenal´s options to the full (conventional) extent. To speak of significant military difficulties for the Russian advancement might also be too early after five days of the invasion and given that the Russian forces initially did not seem to focus on the capital but on encircling the bulk of the Ukrainian forces in the Eastern theater. If this is done, Russia might now to favor rapidly establish full control over saving innocent lives. This, in turn, will only further divide it from the West and further contribute to mutual escalations.

With the outlooks of a Cold War 2.0, a decoupling of global economies, and a growing de-globalization gaining new relevance, the central question pertains to the positioning of non-Western geopolitical actors with China leading the way.

For China, it remains to be seen how much crisis will increasingly unfold along the established geopolitical fault lines separating a Western and an emerging Sino-Russian sphere of influence.

The EiR team will continue to observe and report about the Ukraine. Hopefully, the next Europe Monthly can report of a turn into a less escalating development without too much human suffering in between.

With that, the EiR team wishes you an informative read on this and also other developments in Europe!

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

• Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

EU, International Relations and Geopolitics

War in Europe: Russia invades Ukraine

Russia on February 24 launched a multi-front invasion on Ukraine, shattering months of diplomacy efforts and potentially upending the global security order by triggering the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. [FT] [Reuters] [Al Jazeera] [AP]

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation” in Ukraine – a multipronged attack by air, land, and sea which has seen country-wide destruction and fighting on the streets of Kyiv as Russian troops attempt to storm the capital. [El País] [Euronews] [Reuters]

Putin on February 21 recognised two breakaway provinces in south-eastern Ukraine as independent. His justification for the unprovoked invasion three days later came as a vow to “demilitarise” and “de-Nazify” Ukraine. The Kremlin strongman later encouraged Ukraine’s military to rise up and overthrow the Kyiv government. [Politico] [NDTV][TASS] [The Guardian]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the nation from a secret location in Kyiv, saying: “The enemy has marked me as target number one […] They want to damage Ukraine politically by destroying the head of state.” [Channel 4] [Kyiv Post] [The Guardian]

NATO and EU allies came down on Russia with a sanctions package meant to kneecap Russia’s economy, sever its imports and exports, and freeze the assets of high-ranking Moscow individuals – including President Putin. [Politico][Le Monde]

The Kremlin leader responded to the punitive package – which blocked selected Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system and banned Russian planes from flying over EU territory – by placing nuclear weapons on “special alert,” stoking international fear of imminent nuclear war. [Euractiv] [Politico] [CBS]

Concerns were heightened by a February 27 vote in Belarus which officially renounced the country’s status as a “nuclear free area,” potentially freeing up space for the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons. [Al Jazeera][Euronews] [Politico]

BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner said: “For Putin and his inner circle, bringing Ukraine back into what he sees as Moscow’s sphere of influence, Moscow’s orbit – that trumps everything.” [BBC]

The first five days of the invasion saw the deaths of over 350 Ukrainian civilians – of whom 14 were children. [Al Jazeera]

Ukrainian citizens fleeing the invasion poured through the open gates of Poland, Moldova, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia in their hundreds of thousands. The five Western border countries said they would offer shelter, food, and legal aid to more Ukrainian refugees, whose numbers were expected to reach four or five million. [BBC] [Al Jazeera][Reuters] [Polish News] [MoldPress] [Budapest Times]

The EU has also considered unlocking an as yet unused mechanism to assist Ukrainians fleeing the country. [Euronews][Politico]

Those who stayed in the cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv took shelter underground: families huddled in metro stations, basements, and bomb shelters as air raid sirens, explosions, and gunfire overhead signalled the approach of the Russian assault. [AP] [Metro] [Independent]

President Zelensky imposed 30 days of martial law, removing the minimum age for conscription, prohibiting all men aged 18-60 from leaving the country, and readying 18,000 guns for volunteer fighters. [Ukrinform] [USA Today][CNN]

Ceasefire talks held in Belarus on February 28 yielded only a schedule for further negotiations as missiles continued to pound Ukraine’s cities and its soldiers fought the Russian attack. [Epoch Times] [CNN]

“Last time our capital experienced anything like this was in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany,” said Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba. [euroweeklynews]

Over 12,000 NATO troops have been stationed in eastern member states as a result of the invasion. But US President Joe Biden insisted that NATO soldiers would not cross over the border into non-member Ukraine, saying: “Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO allies and reassure those allies in the east.” [CNN][New York Times]

The fourth and fifth days of the invasion brought defence policy shifts across Europe. 

In an unprecedented move, the EU announced that it would send Ukraine a military aid package worth EUR 500 million from its off-budget “European Peace Facility” purse of EUR 5 billion. [Politico]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reversed a long-standing principle and agreed to supply weapons to Ukrainian troops. The decision also freed up the Netherlands and Estonia to send German-made weapons to Ukraine. Scholz said: “There was no other response possible to Putin’s aggression.” [Deutsche Welle]

Switzerland on February 28 piled in behind the EU with sanctions against Russia – a move which breaks precedent for the traditionally neutral country, and which could freeze billions of dollars in assets and further weaken the Russian economy. [Washington Post]

The Swiss president, Iganzio Cassis, said: “Never since the second world war [have] the rights of one country been so violated by another. You cannot stand aside. To play into the hands of an aggressor is not neutral.” [The Guardian]

Elsewhere, top diplomats around the world pledged their allegiance to the sovereignty of Ukraine and weighed in against Putin’s decision to invade. [The Guardian] [The Japan Times] [Korea Herald] [Bloomberg] [The Diplomat]

French President Emmanuel Macron, who spearheaded recent European diplomacy efforts with Russia, said: “This war is going to last. This crisis will last, this war will last and all the crises that come with it will have lasting consequences.” [Gulf News]

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In major shift, European leaders rethink policy towards Moscow 

Underlining a striking shift in European thinking, Germany has pledged to increase defence spending to more than 2 percent of its economic output as the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine reverberate across the continent, with Europe's political elite rethinking foreign policy and ties with Moscow.

“We will have to invest more in the security of our country to protect our freedom and democracy,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told an extraordinary session of the Bundestag lower house of parliament on February 27. He added that the government had decided to supply EUR 100 billion for military investments from its 2022 budget.

Germany has long resisted pressure from the US and others to raise its defence spending to 2 percent of GDP due to a strong level of pacifism among its population. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have inadvertently achieved what Western allies have long struggled to do, including former US President Donald Trump, by prompting Germany to take on a more assertive foreign policy backed by military assistance. The significant increase in defence spending marks a paradigm shift in German foreign and defence policy.

Berlin’s reaction reflects a strong response among the 27 member nations in the European Union, which quickly took measures to punish Russia for what it said was the “unprovoked and unjustified” military aggression carried out against Ukraine. 

“We have seen a tectonic shift in Europe’s approach to Russia,” Frederick Kempe, president of the foreign policy think tank Atlantic Council, told CNBC. Luis Garicano, a member of the European Parliament for the liberal Renew Europe grouping, also told CNBC that this “changes everything” about future policymaking in the EU, adding that the war in Ukraine had made it clear that the EU needs a strong and unified foreign policy. [CNBC]

The EU approved on February 28 a ban on transactions with the Russian central bank, a ban on the overflight of EU airspace and on access to EU airports by Russian carriers. On February 25, the EU decided to freeze the assets of President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. [EU]

Significantly, the EU approved a EUR 500 million support package to finance equipment and supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces, which was a first in its history as a bloc. Germany also reversed a long-standing policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones. 

Chancellor Scholz, who described the Russian invasion as a turning point, said that Germany will deliver weapons directly to Ukraine, including 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles. [BBC]

“Germany’s special policy toward Russia is over,” Judy Dempsey, a non-resident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and editor in chief of Strategic Europe, said. “The belief that Germany’s decades-long economic, trade, and political relationship with Moscow would lead to the country’s modernization has been debunked.” [CarnegieEurope]

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a tweet: “Our world is different after Putin's war of aggression. While we are stunned by this breach of international law, we are not powerless.”  [BBC]

Prior to Putin’s decision to send troops into Ukraine, a German business organisation said that easing tensions with Russia was key to continuing the upward trend in Germany’s eastern trade. Germany’s trade volume with Russia rose by more than a third in 2021. [Euractiv]

The Chairman of the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, Oliver Hermes, had said: “We cannot risk this success through political conflict, new sanction spirals or even military adventures.” The committee is a business organisation that aims to improve trade conditions in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia. [Euractiv]

“The belief that its Ostpolitik, or Eastern policy, forged during the Cold War, could continue without reassessment by Germany’s political elites, particularly the governing Social Democratic Party, has been discredited,” Dempsey said. “Until the past few days, some political elites and lobbies claimed that it was NATO and the United States, not Russia, that were sabre-rattling.”

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EU neighbours rally to help Ukrainian refugees 

In a demonstration of solidarity and willingness to share responsibility not seen during waves of migration from outside Europe, EU neighbours are accepting Ukrainian refugees fleeing a Russian invasion.

The United Nations Refugee Agency said that up to 4 million people could flee Ukraine, noting that more than 500,000 have already left. [Reuters] Poland said on February 24 it was opening eight reception centres along the Ukrainian border, offering meals and medical care “as well as a place to rest and receive information.” 

Prior to the Russian invasion, Poland had already identified buildings which could be used as refugee camps and prepared hospitals to admit wounded people. Interior minister Mariusz Kaminski said on February 24 that Poland would take in “as many as there will be at our borders.” One of his deputies indicated in late January that Poland was prepared to accept up to a million people. [The Guardian][Al Jazeera] [Politico][Euractiv][Rp.pl] 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on February 24 that his country was “prepared to take care of” those fleeing Ukraine and was “able to rise to the challenge quickly and efficiently.” Hungary has indicated it is ready to accept “tens of thousands” of refugees. [Euractiv][Reuters][AP]

Slovakia said that its borders with Ukraine would remain open, as did Moldova, which is not an EU member. Slovakia has indicated that it may open two additional border crossings and that it will accept refugees without passports “after assessment by border control.” [Euractiv][Business Insider]

Several other EU countries have indicated their willingness to help. Among them, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Austria and the Czech Republic have announced they are prepared to welcome Ukrainian refugees, while Germany has said it “will offer massive support to the affected states – especially our neighbour Poland – in the event of large refugee movements.” [The Guardian]

The solidarity shown towards Ukrainian refugees stands in contrast to the generally restrictive migration policies of many of these countries. [The Guardian]

Grupa Granica, a Polish network of NGOs, has accused Warsaw of applying a racist “double standard.” While Poland has kept its borders open to respond to Ukrainian displacement, it reacted to a recent separate migration crisis by building a wall along the Belarusian border to stop an influx of mostly Middle Eastern migrants. [EiR Monthly January 2022]

Some observers said that these contrasting approaches send the message that Ukrainians must be protected, while refugees and asylum seekers from outside Europe must be deterred and ultimately kept out. While Poland rejected assistance from the European border agency, Frontex, during the Belarusian crisis, it has asked Frontex for assistance if large numbers of Ukrainians arrive. [The Guardian][InfoMigrants]

Many of these countries, such as Poland, have large Ukrainian communities – a large proportion of which left Ukraine following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Other countries such as Austria, with little connection to Ukraine, have also proved willing to change their generally restrictive stance on migration. [The Guardian]

In pledging to accept refugees, many countries have referred to the importance of helping their neighbour or their neighbour’s neighbour. This stands in contrast to the rhetoric underlying many restrictive migration policies, such as Hungary’s, which has claimed that Europe needs to be “protected”.

EU interior ministers are considering activating the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive. The directive, which has not been triggered before, would harmonise protection standards throughout the EU and could entail the distribution of displaced people throughout the bloc. [European Commission] [Euractiv]

While mass migration movements to Europe have been linked to increased anti-immigrant sentiments and support for the far-right, it remains to be seen how migration from and within Europe will impact the politicisation of migration. [CNBC]

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Sanction-hit Russian economy reaches dangerous new lows

A barrage of sanctions has put Russia’s economy on red alert following the country’s attack on Ukraine. Meanwhile Russian anti-war protesters have faced a police clampdown.

In the days following the February 24 invasion, dozens of nations enforced sanctions on the Russian economy, the strongest of which have come from the European Union and the United States. Influential Russian banks and companies are being frozen out of international trade – including the country’s central bank. As a result, Russia has been hampered from using its international reserves, which are valued at EUR 649 billion. [The Guardian] [Reuters]

The Russian economy has come under severe pressure. According to the Institute of International Finance, the Western measures represent “the most severe economic sanctions imposed on a country.” [Reuters]

The Russian central bank has been left scrambling to cope with the rouble’s record low, raising its key interest rate to 20 percent. The Russian currency was massively down against the US dollar. [Reuters] [Sky News]

Meanwhile, big-player Western fossil fuel companies have left Russia. After BP’s move to sell its stake in Rosneft, Shell announced it was halting joint ventures with Russian state oil company Gazprom.

While the impact of the Western sanctions is hard to predict, it is clear that there is resentment among many ordinary Russians over the invasion of Ukraine.

According to reports from within Russia, as many as 5,000 people have been detained by police as the government seeks to stifle opposition to the invasion. Meanwhile, according to Politico Europe, the Russian communications watchdog Roskomnadzor has threatened multiple outlets for using the word “war” to describe the conflict in Ukraine. [Politico Europe] [Reuters]

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Belarus:  Lukashenko denies Minsk plans to send troops to Ukraine to support Russia’s invasion

President Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus has no plans to join Russia's military operation in Ukraine, denying Ukrainian accusations that Russian troops were attacking Ukraine from Belarus' territory, Belarusian state news agency Belta reported.

Belarus is deploying more forces on its border with Ukraine, state news agency Belta quoted Lukashenko as saying. "Those are well trained rapid deployment groups which are ready to stop any provocation and any military action against Belarus," he said. [Reuters]

A US defence official had said that Lukashenko was preparing to send paratroopers into Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces. Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia's President Vladimir Putin, had allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine, but has not directly taken part in the conflict so far. He could send paratroopers across the border, news agencies reported. [The Guardian][Newsweek]

Belarus may also allow Russia to place nuclear missiles in the country following a referendum, in a reversal of policy that could see nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory for the first time since the country gave them up after the fall of the Soviet Union.[The Guardian][Newsweek]

The United States warned in January the regime of Lukashenko would also face a “decisive response” if it assists ally Russia in invading their neighbour Ukraine. 

“We've also made clear to Belarus that if it allows its territory to be used for an attack on Ukraine, it would face a swift and decisive response from the United States and our allies and partners,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on January 25. [RFERL]

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Sweden, Finland send arms to Ukraine as support for joining NATO grows

Sweden and Finland, both of which have a long-standing doctrine of not allowing arms to be sent to active conflict areas, have announced they will be sending military equipment to Ukraine, a significant shift in policy sparked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, support for joining NATO has grown among both Swedes and Finns.

Sweden announced its intentions on February 27 to send military equipment, including anti-tank launchers. [Reuters] When asked why her country is breaking its long standing doctrine, Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson told reporters: “My conclusion is now that our security is best served by us supporting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia.” [The Defence Post]

This is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939. 

Finland confirmed on February 28 that it will be giving military support to Ukraine by providing 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 rounds of ammunition, 1,500 rocket launchers and 70,000 field rations to the conflict area, in what PM Sanna Marin described as “a historic decision”. [teleSur]

“This is a huge change in mindset,” says Rihards Kols, head of the foreign affairs committee of Latvia’s parliament, referring to Finland and Sweden. [Financial Times]

Meanwhile, a new poll for Finland’s state broadcaster Yle showed 53 percent of Finns supported joining NATO. The last time Yle conducted such a poll in 2017 only 19 percent were in favour of joining, while 53 percent were against. [Financial Times]

A citizens’ initiative calling for a referendum on NATO membership gathered the needed 50,000 signatures in four days. According to Finnish law, the initiative must now enter the parliamentary agenda. Whether the current parliament will find time to discuss it remains to be seen. [Politico]

In Sweden, support for NATO has also risen. A survey carried out by Demoskops from January 17 to 20 found that 42 percent of Swedes believe that their country should join the military alliance, 37 percent were against and 21 percent did not know. [Aftonbladet]

Compared to the last time such a survey was carried out in January 2021, the amount of those in favour of NATO membership increased by 4 percentage points. [EiR February 2022]

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EU seeks new gas providers amid Ukraine crisis

As the EU seeks new gas providers, European Commission chief Ursula Von der Leyen has insisted that the bloc’s gas supplies are “on the safe side” for the winter, even if Russia disrupts deliveries amid the Ukraine crisis.

In a U-turn by a country that has long argued its energy needs are separate from its political interests, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on February 22 that Berlin would halt the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The move followed Russia’s recognition of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. [Reuters] [Time]

The pipeline, connecting Germany to Russia via the Baltic Sea, has been criticized by America, Poland and the Baltic states for increasing the EU’s energy dependence on Russia and for isolating Ukraine, depriving it of transit fees. [The Guardian] [Reuters] 

Germany’s decision marks a significant change in its foreign policy and has “massive implications for energy security and Berlin’s broader position towards Moscow,” Marcel Dirsus, from Kiel University's Institute for Security Policy, told Reuters. He said: “It suggests that Germany is actually serious about imposing tough costs on Russia.” [Reuters]

In a landmark speech to parliament on February 27, Scholz highlighted the need for Germany to diversify its energy sources away from Russia, announcing the construction of two LNG terminals and the raising of Germany's natural gas reserves. [Reuters]

Critics have regularly accused Berlin of putting business interests before principles and being soft on Moscow. 

The German freeze on Nord Stream 2 comes after the United States and the European Union announced on February 7 they would cooperate to secure gas supplies in times of disruptions to pipeline flows, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warning that “supply shocks” could result from “further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”[Reuters]

Russia is the largest provider of natural gas to Europe, accounting for some 40 percent of supplies. [Reuters] [Eurostat] The EU’s gas reserves were low at around one-third capacity in mid-February. [AGSI] Germany’s government described its similarly low reserve level as “worrying.” [Euronews].  

Lower than expected imports from Russia, tied with high demand in countries emerging from Covid, have caused energy prices to rocket. They were four times higher in January than a year before. [Euronews] [Euractiv]  

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on February 22 that his country “aims to continue uninterrupted (gas) supplies, including liquid natural gas, to world markets” in written remarks at a Qatar gas conference. [Reuters]

The European Union imported a record amount of around 11 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas in January, 46 percent of which was supplied by the United States, making the EU the top destination for American LNG. [Euronews] 

With Norway, the bloc’s second-largest provider, already delivering natural gas at maximum capacity [Reuters], the US has asked Qatar, [Reuters] one of the world’s largest LNG producers, and Japan [Reuters] to provide LNG for Europe. The EU has spoken with Egypt, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and South Korea about increasing deliveries, either through contract swaps or additional shipments. [Euractiv]  

Qatar’s energy minister announced on February 1 that it could not unilaterally supply the volume of gas needed by the EU in case of a shortage without disrupting its existing supply contracts with other parts of the world. [Reuters] Japan, a major LNG importer, has agreed to divert some shipments to Europe. [Euractiv]  

In a speech to the EU parliament on February 16, European Commission chief Ursula Von der Leyen said the bloc’s gas supplies were “on the safe side” for the winter, even if Russia “partially or completely disrupts gas supplies to the EU.”  

She highlighted the need for the EU to diversify its energy sources, “to get rid of the dependency of Russian gas, and heavily invest in renewable energy sources.” [Euronews]  

Meanwhile, Putin has unveiled a new gas deal under which China will receive ten billion cubic metres of gas annually for 30 years, in the latest sign of growing Sino-Russian energy cooperation and Moscow’s diversification of export markets from Europe to Asia. [NDTV] [South China Morning Post] [Euractiv]  

The Russian leader met Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 4 in Beijing as their countries look to tighten relations amid growing criticism from the West. Putin said Sino-Russian ties were “of a truly unprecedented nature,” and an “example of a dignified relationship.” 

It was Xi’s first face-to-face talk with a world leader in nearly two years, and came hours before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, on which the US administration and other Western governments placed a diplomatic boycott, citing human rights violations in China.  [France 24/AFP]  

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Ankara blocks warships from passing through Bosphorus, Dardanelles straits

Turkey announced on February 28 that it was blocking warships from the key Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits under a convention that gives it control over the passage of military ships in the area as Ankara reacts to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [MSN]

“We have alerted both countries of the region and elsewhere not to pass warships through the Black Sea,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “We are applying the Montreux Convention.” 

The 1936 Montreux Convention governs the free movement of commercial ships in peacetime through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits. [MSN]

The convention also gives Turkey, a NATO member, the right to block the passage of warships in both straits, which connect the Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea, in wartime if threatened. The agreement - signed by Turkey in 1936 with Bulgaria, France, Britain, Australia, Greece, Japan, Romania and the former Soviet Union - consists of five main chapters distributed over 29 articles in addition to four annexes. [Al Monitor]

The Turkish government’s decision likely means that two of Russia’s Slava-class cruisers currently operating in the Mediterranean will not be able to enter the Black Sea. The two ships were operating in and around the Aegean Sea, with RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) south of Italy and RFS Varyag (011) off the coast of Syria, near Russia’s Tartus naval base, USNI News reported. [USNI]

“We have decided to use the Montreux Convention to prevent the escalation of the crisis,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after a Cabinet meeting. [MSN]

Turkey’s initial reaction to Russia’s attack on Ukraine was that Moscow’s decision and stance were unacceptable. In a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Erdogan said that “Turkey stands against any decision targeting Ukraine’s sovereignty,” and conveyed a message of support to Kyiv. [Al Monitor]

All parties in the Turkish Parliament agreed formally that Russia’s military operation against Ukraine is wrong, and that Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be ensured. Turkey is the strongest of the six NATO frontline countries facing Russia and has major geostrategic interests at risk. [Atlantic Council]

Ukraine had asked NATO member Turkey to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to Russian ships. [Reuters] “We conveyed our official request to the Turkish side regarding the closure of airspace and the Dardanelles and Bosphorus for Russian ships,” Ukraine’s Ambassador to Ankara said. The ambassador also asked Turkey to impose sanctions on Russia and seize Russian business assets. [Al Monitor]

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Erdogan’s ability to act against Russia complicated by economic realities, improved ties

Turkey’s ability to take decisive action against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine is complicated by economic realities and overall improvement in political ties, a development that stands in stark contrast to its strained relationship with Washington. 

President Tayyip Erdogan has developed strong economic and political relations with Moscow in recent years. Turkey also relies on Russia for wheat imports, energy supplies and tourism revenue and has been improving defence ties, all factors that prevent Erdogan from aligning completely with Western powers as they impose brutal economic sanctions on Moscow.   

“Turkey finds itself in a most unenviable position in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine,” said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, nuclear policy, cyberpolicy, and transatlantic relations. “Ankara will be heavily critical of Russia’s behaviour and will continue to highlight the importance of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. But will not want to comply with the US and EU sanctions policies toward Russia for fear of alienating Moscow.” [Carnegie Europe]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could have deep implications for the Turkish economy if it escalates. 

Turkey is already battling with inflationary pressure, which is becoming a political problem for Erdogan as workers protest across the country for salary increases or subsidies as they struggle to keep up with the sky-rocketing cost of living. The annual inflation rate officially reached 48.7 percent in January, with significantly higher increases in electricity prices, amid a steep slide in the value of the lira.

Russia accounted for 56 percent of Turkey’s grains imports in 2021 at USD 2.24 billion, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute show, and those from Russia and Ukraine combined made up 78 percent. Turkey’s agriculture ministry was quick to reassure the country that supply shortages were not expected in wheat, other grains and raw materials until the next harvest season given the current supplies in storage. [Financial Post]

Nearly half of Turkey’s natural gas needs are supplied by Russia, a reliance underlined by the opening of the TurkStream gas pipeline across the Black Sea two years ago. Russia is also building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast. [Al Monitor]

Russian trade with Turkey stood at USD 34.7 billion in 2021. Seven million Russians visited Turkey in 2019, the largest number from any country. The Covid-19 pandemic hit tourism revenues hard, but Russian visitor numbers rebounded to 4.7 million last year. [Al Monitor][Reuters]

As Ankara’s relations with Moscow have improved - including more possible joint defence industry steps with Russia, including for fighter jets and submarines - its relationship with the United States has deteriorated. Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 missile defence batteries in 2019, and suggestions that it could buy more, led to a bitter spat with Washington. The US moved to cancel the sale of American F-35 fighter jets and sanction Turkey's defence industries. [Reuters]

The United States has a pivotal role to play in keeping Turkey aligned with NATO and the West, according to a former US ambassador to Turkey. 

“It is Washington’s responsibility to coordinate closely and creatively with Turkey,” said James F. Jeffrey, chair of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, and former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey and former Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. “The United States and Turkey have been at loggerheads on secondary issues for years. Now, in the midst of this truly dramatic challenge to the Alliance, where Turkish interests and policy are aligned closely with Washington’s, it is time to put aside these ultimately minor problems.” [Atlantic Council]

Given its improved ties to Moscow and its role in NATO, Ankara could be in a position to act as mediator in the conflict, a position that Washington would most likely welcome. 

“Ankara has been an outspoken supporter of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a critic of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and developed a significant program of cooperation with Kyiv on military technology, while also retaining effective relations with Russia on energy, agricultural trade, and tourism as well as some key defence technologies,” said Matthew J. Bryza, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s In Turkey program. “Turkey could have a meaningful mediation role to play once Putin finishes his illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.” [Atlantic Council]

(gc/pk)

Beijing reluctant to condemn invasion of Ukraine as Russia, China solidify ties

Amid a tightening of relations between Moscow and Beijing, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has seen China trying to limit repercussions while at the same time standing by a power which is a partner in opposing the West. [Reuters]

The Chinese foreign ministry has suggested that the West is largely responsible for the attack on Ukraine because it backed Moscow into a corner by enlarging NATO’s presence into areas that were once controlled by Russia. [CFR]

In the run-up to the assault on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his counterpart Xi Jinping in China’s capital on February 4, hours before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics. It was Xi’s face-to-face talk with a world leader in nearly two years. [BBC News]

In a joint declaration, the two countries said their friendship “has no limits”. China backed Russia’s call for a halt to enlargement by NATO, and supported Moscow’s demand for security guarantees from the West. Moscow, meanwhile, backed Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, and voiced opposition to any form of independence for the island. [Reuters]

On February 24, the day that Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, and said he “understands Russia’s reasonable concerns on security issues,” Chinese state media reported.

Russian state news agency Tass said the two men also “expressed their joint opinion that the current crisis was caused by Kyiv’s rejection — encouraged by the US and its allies — of implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures.” Politico

Moscow and Beijing have been growing closer to each other for several years. China backed Russia on the Syria conflict, while last year the two countries held large joint military exercises in which they tested the interoperability of their weapons. Meanwhile, during unrest in Kazakhstan in January, Xi Jinping echoed Moscow’s assertions that protests were part of a “colour revolution” backed by the West. [The Hill] [EiR Monthly February 2022]

Some experts say, however, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is awkward for Beijing, since respecting countries’ territorial integrity is a pillar of Chinese foreign policy. [CFR]

Meanwhile, decision makers in Moscow understand that without the backing of China, Russia would be unable to withstand confrontation with the West, Artyom Lukin, a professor of international relations at the Far Eastern and Federal University in Vladivostok, told the BBC.

Following the February 4 Putin-Xi summit in Beijing, many observers voiced concern over what they saw as the threat of a Sino-Russian bloc attempting to impose its authoritarian vision of global order. “Putin and Xi have one major, comprehensive and strategic interest: to dismantle the world built on rules laid down by democracies in recent decades,” commented Czech daily Hospodářské noviny. Historian Marius Oprea wrote for Romania’s Mediafax news service: “China and Russia want to conquer the world together.” [Eurotopics]

However, in a Foreign Policy article headlined “Don’t Buy the Xi-Putin Hype” China expert Craig Singleton cautioned against over-interpreting how much Putin accomplished at the Beijing summit. Compared to Western alliances, Singleton said, cooperation between Russia and China “often looks transactional and opportunistic—and that did not change” in Beijing.

Meanwhile, Italy’s La Repubblica daily said that China had for the first time taken a direct stance on the Atlantic Alliance and demanded an end to its expansion in Eastern Europe. “It also attacked the West and demanded an end to all measures to promote democracy, globalise rights and support demands for independence, from Ukraine's to Georgia's and Kazakhstan's. Xi Jinping spoke about Ukraine, but he had Taiwan in mind.”

Europe Monthly’s view:

Both Ukraine and Taiwan are subject to irredentist longings and national policies seeking to take back lost lands. China is watching the Ukraine crisis carefully because it plans the same sort of move in Taiwan.

Russia has a vital interest in Ukraine, while the West doesn’t. But what is important for the West is its credibility in relation to Ukraine, which will indicate the credibility of the West in relation to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls into the hands of China, then the US would lose its standing in Asia, which would be a dramatic development. China will learn from the West’s reaction in the Ukraine crisis.

(pk)

Chair of Finnish foreign affairs committee quits over Ukraine tweet 

The chair of the Finnish parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee resigned after criticism of a tweet in which he suggested a top Western politician should publicly state that Ukraine will not join NATO. [Euractiv]

Mika Niikko’s post on February 8 came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron travelled to Moscow for talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [ERR]

Niikko later told Finnish newspaper Yle that he supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and had worded his tweet carelessly. He added: “Ukraine is fully entitled to make its own decisions”. [Yle]

Jussi Halla-aho, the former leader of the right-wing populist Finns Party, was appointed as the new chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. He has also made controversial comments which have drawn concerns. [Euractiv]

Referring to Ukraine, Halla-aho said: “There is not a solution that would satisfy Russia and be also acceptable in terms of international law and the legitimate interests of Ukraine. Therefore, negotiating is either useless or utterly immoral.” [Euractiv]

(mh/pk)

United Kingdom: Government plans to scrap golden visa scheme amid money laundering concerns

The British government is ending its visa scheme that fast-tracked residency for wealthy individuals investing in the United Kingdom due to concerns about money laundering. [BBC]

Home Secretary Priti Patel said ending the Tier 1 investor visas was the start of a "renewed crackdown on illicit finance and fraud." Tier 1 investors could get the golden visa by investing $2.7 million in the United Kingdom. [BBC][MSN]

‘’Under my new plan for Immigration, I want to ensure the British people have confidence in the system, including stopping corrupt elites who threaten our national security and push dirty money around our cities,’’ Patel said on February 17. [BBC]

The announcement came amid pressure on ministers to cut UK ties to Russia over the threat of invasion to Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine since the British government’s move to halt Tier 1 visas. “The real test this week for Britain is whether its actions against Russian oligarchs prove effective,’’ Peter Kellner,  a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy, said. “Transparency International estimates that their stake in the UK property market is around $2 billion. However impressive Johnson’s rhetoric sounds, and however tough his sanctions appear, the real test will be what proportion of that $2 billion Britain actually manages to confiscate.’’ [CarnegieEurope]

The visa scheme was introduced in 2008, in the wake of the global financial crisis, and since then over 13,000 Tier 1 investor visas have been issued. Russian and Chinese nationals were far more disproportionately interested than other nationals in investing in order to establish homes in townhouses and mansions in London.  [MoneyControl]

There have been reports of increasing Russian and Chinese influence over Westminster, a development that pointed out the pitfalls of the golden visa. Russian oligarchs were accused of corrupting the British elites, and several of them donated lavishly to the Conservative party.  [MoneyControl]

(gc)

Southeast Asian Nations release joint statement on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on February 26 shared their concern in a joint statement on the Russian attack on Ukraine. The ASEAN members’ representatives have urged the use of diplomatic means to solve the situation and encouraged everyone to agree to a peaceful resolution in line with international law principles. 

In the statement, the representatives did not condemn nor support the Russian invasion of another sovereign country. That reflects the low percentage of Southeast Asian nations that signed a draft United Nations resolution calling for Russia to end its aggression against Ukraine. Only Singapore and Timor-Leste have signed it so far [The Diplomat]. 

In a statement, the Singaporean foreign ministry said that “Singapore strongly condemns any unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country under any pretext” reiterating that “the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine must be respected.”  

Meanwhile, a number of Southeast Asian country representatives have shared their nations’ diplomatic position. The Indonesian president, for instance, has called for the immediate end of the war in Ukraine and instructed the foreign ministry to evacuate Indonesian citizens from the region. [The Jakarta Post] 

Meanwhile, the Malaysian prime minister made a tame statement saying that he regretted the latest development in Ukraine. Cambodia and Vietnam held back from any substantive comments on the situation. The Philippines and Thailand shared concerns over their citizens in Ukraine, and Laos released a statement on a national level in support of a “peaceful settlement to the situation through diplomatic means.” [Benar News] [The Laotian Times] [Bangkok Post] 

But Myanmar’s military government expressed its support for Russia on invading Ukraine, calling it the right move to “consolidate its (Russian) sovereignty” and to “show the world that Russia is a world power.” On the other hand, Myanmar’s shadow government openly condemned the attack and called for international peace and solidarity with the people of Ukraine. [VOA News] 

(bs)

Russia’s Putin meets Pakistani PM Khan amid Ukraine invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Kremlin on February 24, a meeting that – while overshadowed by the invasion of Ukraine – represented a milestone in a relationship that has quietly grown in recent years.

While Pakistani officials insisted that Khan's trip had nothing to do with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, experts called the timing of the visit a “diplomatic disaster” which could give the impression that Islamabad indirectly endorsed Putin’s decree on breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, and even the invasion itself. [Deutsche Welle]

But there is a good case to believe that Islamabad doesn’t support Russia’s moves. During his visit to Moscow, Khan expressed “regret” that a military conflict was not averted, according to a Pakistani readout. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, used similar language in a phone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart on February 27, but like Khan stopped short of criticising Russia. [Al Jazeera] [The Express Tribune 2]

Khan’s trip to Moscow focused solely on bilateral cooperation, especially with regards to the USD 2.5 billion PakStream Gas Pipeline project, according to a Pakistani readout [see AiR No. 4, January/2022, 4]. The Pakistani leader also met Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, while Foreign Minister Qureshi held brief talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. [The Express Tribune 1]

In the lead-up to Khan’s Kremlin visit, Pakistan's powerful military chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, was meeting with European Union officials, including the Secretary General of the European External Action Service, and the chairman of the EU Military Committee, in Brussels.

Islamabad, which has a tenuous relationship with the United States, has long sought to leverage its alliance with China to work more closely with Russia, especially in Afghanistan and Central Asia. But Islamabad must be careful not to edge too close to Moscow, given its commercial relationships with Europe and its desire to play a greater role on the global stage. [AiR No. 8, February/2022, 4]

While Pakistan has been playing a balancing act, it is less intricate than that of India as the Russian invasion of Ukraine leaves New Delhi in quandary. India maintains close ties with Russia, a long-standing and traditional partner, particularly in defence procurement. The two countries signed a flurry of investment and arms deals during Putin’s visit to New Delhi for an annual summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December last year [see AiR No. 49, December/2021, 1].

In light of this, and its traditional approach of keeping a low profile, India has avoided criticising Russian aggression in the past, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea. 

India’s public statements on the current crisis have so far pleased Russian officials. In late February, New Delhi abstained from a procedural vote taken in the United Nations Security Council to call for a special emergency session of the UN General Assembly on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, India abstained from a vote on a draft UN Security Council resolution on February 25, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, New Delhi’s ambassador to the UN declined to explicitly criticise Moscow’s moves, instead calling on all sides to exercise the “utmost restraint.” [Reuters]

Meanwhile, in a February 24 phone conversation with Putin, India’s Modi called for dialogue and a ceasefire. [The Straits Times]

However, Russian aggression in Ukraine poses major threats to Indian interests, from driving Russia into China’s arms to distracting the United States from countering China’s regional influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Washington’s opinion of New Delhi taking sides was visible when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on February 25 tweeted that he had discussed the “importance of a strong collective response to Russian aggression” in a conversation with his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar. [The Wire]

(lm/pk)

Paris, Beijing, strike deals amid strained EU-China relations

Amid strained ties between the EU and Beijing, French President Emmanuel Macron held phone talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on February 16 about strengthening relations between their countries. Six bilateral cooperation agreements were reached in sectors including agriculture, green manufacturing, finance and aviation, as well as third-party market investment. 

Xi urged France to work with China to “steer China-EU relations towards new development,” reaffirming that his country was ready to work with Paris to advance the ratification and implementation of a China-EU investment agreement which has been stalled by the European Parliament over accusations of human rights violations in Xinjiang. [Xinhua] [South China Morning Post]

The phone talks came on the heels of the signing of an USD 1.7 billion agreement between the two countries on their fourth round of “demonstration projects” on third-party market cooperation, covering areas such as infrastructure, environmental protection and new energy. 

The third-party markets involved include Africa and Central and Eastern Europe, with methods of cooperation ranging from joint financing and joint investment, to projects in which China will be awarded engineering procurement and construction contracts, while France will be responsible for investment. 

China has signed documents on third-party market cooperation with several other countries, including Italy, Japan and the UK, but France is the first to establish a third-party market cooperation mechanism with China. [Global Times] [FF News]

The talks between the French and Chinese leaders came at a time when China-EU relations are strained over disputes on multiple fronts including human rights, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and Lithuania, over which Brussels has become increasingly assertive towards Beijing (see separate story in this issue of Europe Monthly). Many European governments declared a diplomatic boycott of the recent Beijing Winter Olympics. 

(xh/pk)

Australia, Britain strengthen security, military cooperation to counter China

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morison announced in a joint statement on February 17 that the UK has pledged $34 million to “strengthen regional resilience in areas including cyberspace, state threats and maritime security,” a move seen as further evidence of Western countries’s efforts to counter  China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. [Al Jazeera] 

Without naming China, the two leaders said in the statement that the UK and Australia recognize the need for Southeast Asian countries to exercise their maritime rights in the South China Sea. They rejected “any unilateral actions that could escalate tensions and undermine regional stability and the international rules-based order, including militarisation, coercion, and intimidation.” 

They also expressed their concerns about human right violations in Xinjiang Beijing and about tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Both affirmed that there has been “significant progress” in equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines as agreed on in the AUKUS pact last September. [Al Jazeera]

(xh/gc)

EU pledges Africa package to rival China’s BRI

The EU has promised Africa EUR 150 billion of its new Global Gateway purse to promote infrastructure, vaccine rollout and green energy in Africa. EU and African Union (AU) leaders shook on a “renewed partnership” at a two-day summit in Brussels. [euronews] [rfi.fr]

Many observers see Europe’s investment in Africa as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

Speaking ahead of the summit, Michael Tanchum, policy fellow at the Africa programme of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Chinese investments across the continent have not brought about a China-style economic boom in any African country. Europe could fill this gap by investing in the creation of large-scale, value-added production in sub-Saharan Africa.” [ecfr.eu] [Euractiv]

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen closed the two-day Brussels summit on February 18 by saying: “Our objectives are greater access to electricity through the expansion of regional power grids, and the development of hydrogen capacity. Greater internet access via submarine cables linking Europe and Africa, and terrestrial cables across Africa’s regions.”

However, Lidet Tadesse Shiferaw, associate director of the European Centre for Development Policy Management, said: “The EU could be setting itself up for failure by announcing so many flagship projects to woo the African side.” [FT]

Senegalese President Macky Sall, the current chair of the African Union, said that by promoting green, climate-conscious projects, Europe might slow Africa’s push for industrialisation and “thwart our efforts for social development.” Sall added: “It is legitimate that our countries demand a fair and equitable energy transition.” [FT]

African leaders at the summit again accused Europe of promoting “vaccine apartheid” by hoarding Covid-19 vaccines and not lifting patents on Europe-made vaccines. [euronews]

Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation announced that six African countries including Kenya and South Africa would be granted the technology to begin manufacturing their own vaccines independent of European suppliers. [euronews] [Bloomberg]  [africanews] [euronews]

A recent spate of military coup takeovers in Mali, Guinea, Sudan and Burkina Faso meant that none of these countries were represented at the summit, at which the EU reiterated its commitment to peace and counterterrorism missions in Africa. This comes as France announced on February 17 that it was pulling its troops out of Mali following a breakdown in relations with the country’s ruling junta – a matter which went unmentioned at the summit. [Brussels Times] [africanews]

African leaders left the sixth EU-AU gathering with cause for cautious optimism. Von der Leyen said in her summit-closing speech: “Never before has Europe had a global investment strategy, and never before have we put on the table such a sizeable and ambitious package with Africa.” 

But Tian Johnson, lead strategist at the African Alliance, said: “History is littered with these treaties, with these summit declarations […] It means nothing if Africans are going to continue living in sickness; in poverty; in inequality.” [euronews] [africanews]

Von der Leyen proposed on February 18 that representatives of the European Commission and the African Union Commission meet again in spring to “take this work forward.”

The European Commission unveiled the Global Gateway in December as a global infrastructure plan which aims to invest EUR 300 billion into strengthening supply chains and improving trade across Europe, Africa, South America and Asia by 2027. [EiR January 2022]

(ht/pk)

EU brings China to WTO over ‘coercive’ trade practices against Lithuania

The European Union and China are set to enter consultations at the WTO after claims that Beijing is using its economic might to punish Lithuania for its friendly stance towards Taiwan – and the EU has more than a few allies in support. 

In a case launched at the World Trade Organization in January, the EU alleged that China’s decision to restrict imports of Lithuanian goods amounted to coercive trade practices. [Politico Europe]

While Chinese officials have not given a reason for the restrictions on Lithuanian trade, the EU believes they are aimed at punishing the country for its pro-Taiwan stance. [Deutsche Welle]

Taiwan, which has been self-governing for nearly 80 years but is claimed by China, was seen as having been given upgraded diplomatic status by the Lithuanian government after a “Taiwanese representative office” opened in Vilnius last November.

In response, China launched economic measures and then downgraded Lithuania’s diplomatic presence in the country. [Politico Europe] [The Guardian] 

The EU has supporters in the UK, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Canada and the United States – all of whom have asked to join the WTO case. [Reuters] [Euractiv]

(wb/pk)

Estonian intelligence service accuses China of spying on citizens for propaganda purposes

Estonia’s Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (Välisluureamet) has accused China of collecting email data of its citizens and residents for propaganda dissemination. 

Välisluureamet referred to a regular fortnightly email sent from the Chinese embassy in Tallinn to private individuals and of “strongarm” tactics in its vaccine diplomacy. It made the allegations against China in its 2022 annual yearbook. 

China’s relationship with the Baltic region and the European Union broadly has soured as it is increasingly perceived as using coercive economic and political tactics against nations that challenge its policies. It is in a bitter dispute with Lithuania over the country’s relationship with Taiwan, a spat that has pulled in the EU andt the US. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Välisluureamet claimed that China has pursued a more focused and targeted approach in targeting critics as evidenced by sanctions on individuals and institutions, including Members of the European Parliament, the Political and Security Committee of the Council of the European Union or the Subcommittee on Human Rights of the European Parliament, and punitive measures against countries, for instance from Lithuania. 

In its response to the report, the Chinese Embassy in Tallinn dismissed the allegations, accusing the report of being “full of subjective assumptions, Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice,” and lacking any “factual basis at all.” [ERR News] [South China Morning Post]

 (xh/gc)

Cyprus: Interior minister blames Turkey for encouraging immigrants from Syria, Sub-Saharan Africa

Cyprus accused Turkey of encouraging the influx of Syrian refugees and arrivals from sub-Saharan Africa to the Mediterranean island nation, in comments from the country’s interior that underscore the strained ties between Nicosia and Ankara.

Interior Minister Nicos Nouris said that irregular migration to Cyprus was causing a state of emergency. About  4.6 percent of the country’s population are now asylum seekers or beneficiaries of protection, the highest ratio in the European Union, he said in an interview with AFPon February 13. [Euractiv][Digital Journal]

The migration issue ‘’is a huge problem’’ because it is being orchestrated by Turkey, the minister from the conservative Democratic Rally party said. Many of the asylum seekers fly via Istanbul to the northern breakaway statelet recognised only by Ankara, and  “from there, with the smugglers, they find a way through the Green Line,” he said. [Euractiv][Digital Journal]

Nouris said that about 60 to 80 irregular migrants, guided by smugglers, cross the UN-patrolled 184-kilometre long Green Line every day, with 85 percent of asylum seekers last year having arrived in this way. ‘’Brutal is what Turkey has been doing to us,” as new asylum applications had multiplied to over 13,000 last year in the country of 850,000, he said. [Euractiv][Digital Journal]

Nouris dismissed criticism from rights groups and observers for squalid conditions in its overcrowded main migrant camp, which was rocked by clashes in February, and for alleged brutal treatment of some arrivals.

(gc)

France withdrawing anti-jihadi troops from Mali

France and its EU allies have said they are withdrawing troops from Mali after a deterioration in relations with the country’s ruling junta, pulling out of a 10-year struggle against jihadist forces and leaving Mali open to the influence of Russian mercenaries. [South China Morning Post] [France 24] [The Times]

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the troop pull-out on February 17, saying: “We cannot remain militarily engaged alongside de facto authorities whose strategy and hidden aims we do not share.” [Deutsche Welle]France has accused Mali’s interim military government of stalling democratic elections, siding with Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries, and showing willingness to negotiate with jihadist forces in the region. [France 24] [South China Morning Post]

Over the next six months, the 2,400 French troops in Mali will be redeployed to neighbouring Niger, where they will continue to support ongoing multinational efforts by the United Nations and the EU to deal with the threat of insurgent forces linked to Al-Qaeda in the Sahel region. [africanews] [South China Morning Post]

Senegalese President Macky Sall said: “Fighting terrorism in the Sahel cannot be the business of African countries alone.” [France 24] Macron has denied suggestions that France’s intervention in Mali – which saw 48 French soldiers killed – was a failure. [The Telegraph] [France 24]

Mali is under the control of a junta government which took power in a military coup last May. The coup was the second in the space of two years. Headed by strongman Assimi Goïta, the junta recently decided to delay the promised return of democratic elections until 2027. [EiR No. 2, February/2022] [Al Jazeera]

Some observers see France’s troop withdrawal as a sign that French influence in the Sahel is crumbling. Algerian political commentator and writer Abed Charef said: “Mali is changing course. Why would one of the world’s poorest countries, with no serious prospects in view, choose to remain in France’s suffocating sphere of influence?” [middleasteye] [Al Jazeera]

Charef added that France’s troop pull-out could play into the hands of other international players seeking greater influence in Africa and the Sahel region: “China and Russia – the first economically, the second militarily – will inevitably supplant former networks and interests, with Turkey too now entering the fray.”  [middleasteye] [Daily Sabah] [FT]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on February 23 completed a four-day tour of central and eastern Africa, signing financial aid and defence deals in his visit to the Democratic Republic of Congo. [Yenisafak] [rfi.fr]

(ht/pk)

Swedish telecom giant Ericsson says it may have paid ISIS 

Swedish telecom giant Ericsson says that it may have made payments to jihadist organisation ISIS to gain access to transport routes in Iraq. [Al Jazeera][New York Post][Bloomberg][Ericsson]

Responding to media inquiries, Ericsson on February 15 released the findings of a 2019 internal probe. The investigation examined the conduct of company employees, vendors and suppliers in Iraq between 2011 and 2019. [New York Post] 

The company found that there had been “serious breaches of compliance rules” and “evidence of corruption-related misconduct.” These included “making a monetary donation without a clear beneficiary” and “funding inappropriate travel and expenses.” [New York Post]

The inquiry identified payments for transport routes through areas controlled by terrorist organisations, including ISIS. Ericsson CEO Borje Eckholm said that the company had not yet determined the final recipients of these payments. [Al Jazeera][Bloomberg]

In 2019, Ericsson reached a settlement of over USD 1 billion after a separate US Department of Justice inquiry into corruption, including the bribing of government officials in countries including China, Djibouti and Vietnam, news outlets reported. [Al Jazeera][New York Post]

(fvw/pk)

Munich Security Conference: Iran nuclear talks and EU’s terms on cryptocurrency

The Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering on international security policy which was dominated by the Ukraine crisis, also saw Iran nuclear talks taking place and discussions of cryptocurrencies for the European Union. 

Held from February 18 to 20, the summit in Germany saw United States Vice President Kamala Harris meet with Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz to discuss the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal which limited Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for broad sanctions relief. Talks in Vienna have been underway for 10 months aiming for a return to the agreement after the United States under then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018. 

Gantz insisted that any deal with Iran had to be enforced by the International Atomic Energy Agency. [The Times of Israel] [Econotimes] [Politico]

Meanwhile, EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson said at a panel on February 18 that the bloc would be open to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or a digital euro, on the condition they are “regulate[d] in a proper way”. She raised concerns about fraud and criminal organisations or terrorists exploiting the anonymity offered by some cryptocurrency networks. [Bloomberg]

This year’s conference began with accusations levelled against its departing chairman Wolfgang Ischinger of using the meeting to further his personal business interests. In an interview with German media, he called those allegations “absurd”. [Politico] [BR24]

(qv/pk)

Russia, Germany block each other’s broadcasters in tit-for-tat row

Authorities in Moscow shut the offices of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) after regulators banned Russian news channel RT from operating in Germany, leading to two-way accusations of attacks on freedom of speech. [The Guardian] [DW]

The German public news broadcaster’s staff were also stripped of press credentials on February 4 in what has been called an “unacceptable” move by European Union foreign policy spokesperson Peter Stano. [Euronews]

The moves against DW came after media regulators on February 2 banned RT DE – the German-language branch of RT – from broadcasting in Germany. German regulators had concluded that the Russian state-run news channel lacked the required TV licensing. [The Guardian] [BBC News] 

“We clearly expected some measures after RT was banned in Germany. But we never expected that these retaliatory measures by the Russian authorities would be so hard,” said DW reporter Irina Filatova. [DW]

RT had challenged the decision to prevent it from broadcasting, saying that it possesses a Serbian licence that permits it to put out information in more than 30 countries – including Germany – under European law. [Euronews] [Tweet from Margarita Simonian] 

The editor-in-chief of RT DE, Margarita Simonian, called the German decision “complete nonsense,” while Dmitry Peskov, press secretary to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said it was “nothing but an attack on freedom of expression.” [Euronews] 

In a further escalation of tensions, the foreign ministry in Moscow said it would ban German officials who were responsible for shutting down RT DE from entering Russia. [Reuters]

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing that if Germany reverses its decision, Moscow is prepared to do so too. [DW]

In the meantime, the Kremlin said it would label DW as a “foreign agent” – a legal classification that would open the broadcaster to greater scrutiny by the Russian government. Targets of the “foreign agent” law are also required to provide a disclaimer on all published content, stating their “foreign agent” status. [DW] [BBC News]

Russia has applied the label more frequently over the last year and has expelled several journalists from the country. [DW] [BBC News]

Critics of the Russian legislation say that it undermines freedom of speech and is designed to stifle criticism of the government. President Putin denies these claims and has said that it is necessary to prevent foreign interference in Russia. [DW] 

(ek/pk)

Germany will review EC proposal to include nuclear in sustainable finance taxonomy

Germany has challenged a European Commission proposal to include nuclear power in the bloc’s sustainable finance taxonomy, a position that reflects Berlin’s pursuit of renewable and cleaner energy despite rising power prices. 

“Nuclear power is unsustainable, involves immense risks, is too expensive and the planning and construction processes take far too long to contribute to the goal of climate neutrality,” Germany's Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, Robert Habeck, and Federal Minister for the Environment and Consumer Protection, Steffi Lemke, said in a joint statement on February 2.  

“To describe nuclear power as sustainable contradicts the understanding of sustainability of consumers in Germany and other European Member States,” they said without challenging the decision by the European Commission to classify natural gas in the taxonomy. [BMWK]

Green Party leader Ricarda Lang criticised both, saying separately that their classification as sustainable and eligible for funding devalued the taxonomy as an EU eco-label for sustainable investments.

“Instead of preventing greenwashing, the EU Commission is making taxonomy itself a greenwashing instrument,” Lang said. The Green party wants the German government to vote “no,” Lang said on February 3. [PV-Magazine]  

The government is now discussing how to deal with the EU Commission’s decision.

The EC has argued that the inclusion of nuclear power and natural gas is necessary for decarbonisation and thus achieving climate neutrality. The EU taxonomy aims to encourage citizens and investors to invest in environmentally-friendly technologies to meet the EU’s climate targets, though it comes as European nations increasingly rely on natural gas imports from Russia.

The political implications of this dependency increased after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine. Europe’s ability to take decisive measures against Putin were initially curbed given rising energy costs and its impact on energy prices across the continent, where many countries are experiencing double-digital inflation and lower consumer spending. 

The EU is committed to sustainable financing and reducing greenhouse gases by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, and to becoming climate neutral by 2050. [Der Tagesspiegel]

(yp/gc)

European Commission starts battle for ‘semiconductor sovereignty’ with Chips Act

The European Commission has announced it aims to invest EUR 11 billion in semiconductor research and manufacturing after a global shortage revealed just how reliant the bloc is on East Asian imports. 

Semiconductors, the cutting edge of which are only 2 nanometres in size, are the core component of modern computer chips. However, their manufacturing process is expensive and requires rare earth minerals which must be imported. [Bloomberg] [Reuters]

The European Chips Act aims to reach a total investment of EUR 43 billion in the industry by 2030 through public subsidies and private investment. The Commission has also exempted the plan from its notoriously strict state-aid rules. [Euronews] [Reuters]

Europe lags behind in the semiconductor market. The continent’s manufacturing output is far behind that of the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The dominant industrial players in the market are the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics. [Reuters] [Guardian] [Financial Times]

Europe is not alone in trying to strengthen its domestic semiconductor industry. India has pledged USD 10 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturers. The United States is investing an immediate USD 52 billion in its semiconductor industry. [TIME] [Reuters]

(wb/pk)

Google does not protect European data from use by US intelligence services, watchdogs say

Austria’s Data Protection Authority (DPA) and France’s Commission Nationale de l'Informatique et des Libertés determined that the use of Google Analytics violates Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation rules. 

DPA said that websites cannot use Google Analytics if it sends data and that Google cookies collect and transfer personal data, such as IP address, ID numbers, and browser settings, to the US. CNIL echoed DPA’s ruling, saying that measures taken by Google have been “insufficient to exclude the accessibility of this data for US intelligence services.” [Reuters]

The use of Standard Contractual Clauses (SCCs), an approved European Commission contract that safeguards data, can protect European data. DPA determined, though, that the particular SCCs executed by both the website operator and Google were insufficient under GDPR rules.

Belgium’s Data Protection Agency determined in January that the Interactive Advertising Bureau of Europe’s Transparency and Consent Framework is illegal under GDPR guidelines in its current form. [Ad Exchanger]

(ig/gc)

Top EU court dismisses Poland, Hungary’s challenge to cash-for-rule-of-law tool

The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled on February 16 that the EU can withhold payments to countries that undermine the rule of law, defeating a legal challenge brought by Poland and Hungary and opening the way for the bloc to issue the first such penalties. [Politico]

The decision prompted Poland’s Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro to say that Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made a “historical mistake” by failing to veto the EU Council’s adoption in late 2020 of a so-called conditionality mechanism that links payouts of money by Brussels to the maintenance of rule-of-law standards. The comments by Ziobro – who is the head of junior coalition party Solidarity Poland – highlighted tensions in Poland’s right-wing coalition, which has ruled the country since 2015. [Euractiv] [Bloomberg] 

The European Commission had said it would wait for the verdict before implementing the mechanism, and the court’s decision now means that it can be used for the first time to cut funding to member states that are seen as failing to uphold democratic values. [Euronews] [Politico] [DW]

Poland and Hungary – which have repeatedly been accused of democratic backsliding by the EU – had filed a lawsuit against the mechanism, saying that it violated EU treaties. [Politico] 

The verdict delivered by the EU’s top court was met with accusations of “blackmail” from Polish Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta, while Hungary’s Justice Minister Judit Varga called it an abuse of power. [DW]

The Court of Justice clarified that the conditionality mechanism is in place to protect the EU budget. [Politico] [Euronews] “The sound financial management of the Union budget and the financial interests of the Union may be seriously compromised by breaches of the principles of the rule of law committed in a Member State,” the court said in a statement. [Euronews]

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the ruling, saying that it confirmed the Commission is “on the right track”. [DW] 

A separate legal instrument, known as Article 7, is also available to penalise member states that undermine EU values. Both Hungary and Poland have been targeted with this tool, but it requires the unanimous support of member states. Warsaw and Budapest have agreed to support each other and block its implementation. [Euronews] [Euractiv]

Following the judgement on the rule-of-law procedure, political groups within the European Parliament urged the Commission to begin the process of withholding funds as soon as possible. 

The Parliament has been at odds with the Commission over its reluctance to implement the conditionality mechanism and filed a lawsuit against the EU’s executive branch in October 2021. [Euronews] [EiR November 2021] 

“Where the conditions of the regulation are fulfilled, we will act with determination,” Von der Leyen said in a statement. [European Commission] 

(ek/pk)

EU withholds cash after Poland ignores court ruling on coal mine

The European Commission has said it is withholding millions for Warsaw after Poland disregarded a ruling by the EU's top court over a Polish coal mine near the Czech border.

The move by the EU’s executive, the first of its kind, comes despite Warsaw and Prague signing a deal on February 3 to end a long-running dispute over the mine which strained relations between the two neighbours.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki met his Czech counterpart Petr Fiala in Prague to reach a solution in the battle over the Turow mine. The Czech Republic last year complained to the European Court of Justice that the mine was draining water from villages on the Czech side of the border. [DW] [EiR November 2021]

Warsaw has paid Prague EUR 45 million in compensation as part of the agreement, and promised that steps would be taken to limit further environmental impact, such as the construction of a barrier to protect underground water sources near the mine. [DW] [TVN24] 

“The Czech Republic has withdrawn its complaint to European institutions and that is the end of this issue,” Morawiecki said on February 4. [Euronews] 

However, the European Commission announced that it would withhold EUR 15 million from Poland’s EU budget allocation as a result of unpaid court fines over the mine – the first such move by the EU. [Politico] [The Guardian] [Reuters] 

In May 2021, the European Court of Justice ruled that the Turow mine must be closed – a verdict that Poland ignored. In September, the EU’s top court ordered Poland to pay a daily fine of EUR 500,000 as long as the mine remained open. Warsaw had not complied with the order. [Politico] [EiR November 2021]

The amount being withheld covers the period from September 20 to October 19, and the Commission confirmed that additional budget cuts will follow. The total amount owed by Poland is close to EUR 70 million. [Politico] [The Guardian] [Reuters]

The Polish government said it would appeal the Commission’s decision to withhold EU funds, using “all possible legal measures.” [Politico]

(ek/pk)

US donates military helicopters to Croatia amid mini arms race with Serbia

The US has donated two UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, valued at USD 53 million to Croatia as a mini arms race continues in the Balkans. The Black Hawks, able to perform a variety of roles from troop transport to special operations, were delivered to Zagreb airport on February 3. [US Embassy in Croatia]

The US embassy in Croatia said that helicopters would increase the defensive capabilities of Croatia and military preparedness in support of NATO. Croatia joined NATO in 2009 and has since sent Croatian troops to serve alongside US servicemen in Afghanistan, Poland and Kosovo.

Mark Fleming, US Chargé D’Affaires, said: “Croatia has earned a reputation as a committed and capable NATO ally” and was working to “ensure regional security and to support the strength of NATO more broadly.” Croatian Minister of Defence, Mario Banozic, thanked the US government for the donation and said that “strong, friendly and allied relations” between the two nations were progressing every year.

Croatia has been strengthening its military ties to the US. Last month, Croatia agreed to purchase 89 Bradley fighting vehicles from the US for USD 145 million, a deal in discussion since 2017. [EURACTIV]

Serbia, which was at war with Croatia in the 1990s, has increasingly procured weaponry and military equipment from Russia. A Russian shipment of Kornet Anti-Tank missiles arrived in Serbia last month. In December, Serbia’s Interior Minister, Aleksandar Vulin, announced that they would purchase new Pantsir S1-M air defence missile systems from Russia. [EIR]

Diplomatic relations and military cooperation between Serbia and Russia have been steadily improving as Moscow tries to maintain a level of strategic influence in the region. Historically Russia has had strong military, economic and political interests in the Balkans. 

(nw/gc)

Lawmakers call for sanctions over corruption in Hungary

An international group of parliamentarians fighting graft has urged the EU’s executive and the US administration to impose sanctions on individuals in Hungary “credibly accused” of major corruption and stealing state resources.

The recently established Inter-Parliamentary Alliance against Kleptocracy, comprising EU, British and American lawmakers, said they feared that without firm action “corruption-enabled attacks on democracy” by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban could spill over into other countries in the European Union. [Politico]

The lawmakers claimed in a statement that there was evidence linking family members “and other cronies” of Orban to systematic corruption, including a case of a company headed by the premier’s son-in-law winning tenders worth EUR 40 million in EU funds to modernize street lights. “Corruption and kleptocracy are biggest threat to democracy,” the parliamentarians added. The odds of a firm being awarded a public procurement contract in Hungary are seven times higher if it has ties with the government, according to the Corruption Research Centre Budapest. [Euractiv]

(pk)

Germany: European Parliament strips former AfD-chief of immunity

The European Parliament stripped the former chairman of the far-right party AfD, Jörg Meuthen, of his parliamentary immunity on February 15 after the public prosecutor’s office in Berlin requested that it be lifted to start a criminal investigation. [Süddeutsche] [ZDF] [Spiegel]

Meuthen is accused of giving “wrong or not complete” information in financial reports from 2016, 2017 and 2018 as party chairman. The AfD was ordered on February 17 to pay a fine of EUR 108,000 to the Bundestag administration after an investigation of illegal party donations. The AfD still has time to file an appeal. [Spiegel][Süddeutsche]

Meuthen voted to lift his immunity, though he said it was not necessary to do so since he assured his “full cooperation” in the investigation. He said he was  “confident that all suspicions are groundless and incorrect”. [ZDF]

Earlier this year, Meuthen had left the AfD due to ideological differences. The ongoing investigation did not influence his decision to leave. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

(mb/gc)

European Parliament condemns human rights violations in Philippines

The European Parliament in a resolution adopted on February 16 condemned extrajudicial killings and other serious human rights violations committed in the “war on drugs” in the Philippines under the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. 

The European Parliament also denounced the country’s repression of press freedom, freedom of expression, and human rights activism, and threatened to end the Philippines’ perks and market access under the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus, which grants the country special incentives and zero tariffs on more than 6,000 products. [Rappler] 

In their resolution, members of the European Parliament urged the authorities to cease “red-tagging” people and organisations that attempt to report allegations of extrajudicial killings and rights violations, thus linking them to communist groups – a move that exposes them to violence and harassment. 

According to civil society organizations, the Philippines’ authorities have killed between 12,000 and 30,000 people in anti-drug operations. The government, meanwhile, has attributed 6,200 deaths to police action. 

President Duterte has “explicitly encouraged the police to commit extrajudicial executions and promised them immunity,” the resolution said. Moreover, over 146 human rights defenders and more than 22 journalists have been killed during Duterte’s administration since 2016. 

The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs called the European Parliament resolution a “misguided attempt” to interfere in upcoming national presidential elections. [Manila Bulletin] 

The European Parliament on February 16 also adopted two other resolutions: one calling for the end of the death penalty in Iran, and another condemning a coup against the democratically elected government of Burkina Faso on January 24. [European Parliament] 

(bs/pk) 

Italian president urges bigger EU role in peace processes

In a speech to parliament after being re-elected as Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella called on the EU to play a greater role in “supporting stabilisation and peace processes” in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

Mattarella was elected on January 29 for a second term after voting failed to produce a compromise-candidate successor. The multiple rounds of balloting exposed rifts in Italy’s governing coalition. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

Mattarella said in his speech: “For many decades, European countries have enjoyed the peace dividend, made concrete by European integration, and heightened by the end of the Cold War.” [Presidenza Della Repubblica]

Mattarella also endorsed the Conference on the Future of Europe. He said the deliberative experiment in democracy “must be an opportunity to define, with courage, a Union that is a protagonist in the international community.” [Euractiv]

(hm/pk)

Italy donates vehicles, Covid-19 vaccines to Lebanon

The Italian government has donated military vehicles and other equipment to the Lebanese military. It has also donated 500,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines for the local population.

Italian Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini said that the delivery reflected Rome’s commitment to supporting Lebanon, helping stabilise the country. [TheDefensePost]

Two 20-seat buses, a tanker and an inflatable boat were delivered to the port of Beirut on February 7, as part of the first batch of donations which is to be completed by the end of the year. [all news]

Gen. Francesco Paolo Figliuolo, commander of the Italian Joint Command Operations, said the donation would “facilitate the mobility” of the Lebanese armed forces, which was a “strategic priority.” [Arab News]

(hm/pk)

Spanish, Egyptian navies hold exercises in Mediterranean

Spain’s and Egypt’s navies have taken part in military exercises which the Egyptian Armed Forces said aimed to “upgrade the level of [their] training” while exchanging “military experience between the countries.”

The joint manoeuvres were held in February in the Mediterranean Sea between Spain and Egypt. The drills were designed to help the Egyptian and Spanish navies work in a similar manner on tasks involving maintaining maritime security. [english.aawsat]

Egyptian naval forces also participated in exercises in the Red Sea as part of the International Maritime Exercise/Cutlass Express (IMX/CE) drills which ran from January 31 to February 17. According to the United States Africa Command, this was a “U.S. Naval Forces Africa led, all-domain exercise” in East African coastal regions and the West Indian Ocean. [africom]

“The drills were linked to US Central Command's International Maritime Exercise to counter malign influence, aggression, and activity along overlapping command seams and maritime regions,” the US Africa Command added.[naval-technology] [africom] [english.aawsat]. IMX/CE is the largest multinational training programme in the Middle East, with over 60 nations taking part. [english.aawsat]

(sdo/pk)

EU imposes new sanctions over rights violations in Myanmar

The European Council on February 21 adopted measures targeting 22 people and four institutions in its fourth round of sanctions over Myanmar’s violations of human rights since the country’s military coup last year. 

The measures include asset freezes, blocking access to funds and travel bans. They come on top of those the European Union (EU) has previously imposed on Myanmar: an embargo on arms and equipment, an export ban and restrictions, and prohibition of military training and military cooperation with the country’s junta. 

Meanwhile, the EU reiterated its commitment to providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Myanmar, and its call for the immediate cessation of violence throughout the country. 

To date, the European Council has imposed restrictive measures on 65 individuals and 10 entities, including government ministers, members of the national administrative council and the election commission, and state-owned and private companies. [European Council] 

(bs/pk)

European Union to support Bangladesh in graduation from Least Developed Country category

The head of the European Union’s delegation to Bangladesh, Charles Whiteley, has reiterated Brussel’s support for the country’s sustainable graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. [Daily Star]

Bangladesh also sought Sweden’s support in its LDC graduation. The Swedish ambassador noted the great potential in the South Asian country’s market and said Stockholm was ready to facilitate the environmental goals with assistance from Swedish companies operating in Bangladesh. [The Business Standard]

(ap/gc)

EU to support development of Timor-Leste

The European Union has agreed to provide Timor-Leste with a EUR 55 million fund until 2024 to support the Southeast Asian island country’s development and boost mutual cooperation.

The funds are part of the first phase of the EU Multiannual Indicative Programme for Timor-Leste for 2021-27. The initiative aims to support a green and sustainable economy, and implement good governance for sustainable development. [Timor-Leste Government] 

(bs/pk)

Netherlands: Prime Minister apologises to Indonesia for atrocities by Dutch troops in 1945

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte apologised to Indonesia for the use of “systematic and extreme violence” by the Dutch army between 1945-49 that killed about 100,000 Indonesian citizens. 

The atrocities were initially condoned by the Dutch government as the European country tried to re-colonize after Indonesia’s declaration of independence in 1945.

A recent study found that the torture and execution of Indonesians by Dutch troops drastically intensified when Indonesia declared independence. The research concluded that The Netherlands was guilty of “mass detentions, torture, burning of villages, executions, and killing of civilians.”

The blame did not belong to individual soldiers but to the system at the time, Rutte said. “The prevailing culture was one of looking away, shirking and a misplaced colonial sense of superiority,” he said. “That is a painful realisation, even after so many years. [The Guardian] [ The Jakarta Post]

In 2011, Dutch courts ordered the government to compensate the families of the victims of the 1945-49 atrocities perpetrated by the Dutch troops. The government arranged the compensation in 2013.  [Aljazeera] [The Guardian] 

(bs/gc)

Mexican president suggests pausing relations with Spain

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador declared on February 9 that Mexico should pause its ties with its former colonial master Spain in order to prevent Spaniards “robbing us”. 

Lopez Obrador did not specify exactly what he meant by saying that Mexico should “take a break” from Spain, but said that it was a temporary solution which would last “until we can normalise” the relationship again. [El País]

He also accused Spanish companies of “plundering” his country with the support of the previous Mexican governments, and declared there had been “an economic and political promiscuity at the top of the governments of Mexico and Spain for about 18 years.” [El Mundo]

His comments came after a dispute with big Spanish energy companies which operate in Mexico, such as Repsol and Iberdrola. Lopez Obrador said such firms would have taken “unfair advantage” by building electrical power plants, a field dominated by state-owned companies before a 2013 energy reform which allowed private investment in the sector. [Devdiscourse] [Celag]

Lopez Obrador later underlined that he did not want a diplomatic rupture with Spain, a clarification welcomed by Madrid. “I didn't talk about breaking (relations),” he told reporters on February 10. “No. We're going to settle down the relationship.” [Reuters]

The Mexican president in 2020 officially asked Spain's King Felipe VI and Pope Francis to apologise for human right abuses committed during the conquest of the region by Spain in the 16th century. Spanish authorities did not apologise. The Spanish foreign minister at the time, Josep Borrell, declared his country “will not issue these apologies that have been requested”. [BBC] [Devdiscourse]

(vb/pk)

Europe, Indo-Pacific region meets in Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in Indo-Pacific

On February 22, 27 European Union foreign ministers and 30 ministers from the Indo-Pacific region met in Paris for the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific chaired by the current French presidency of the Council of the European Union and other EU High Representative. 

The forum was organized to follow up with the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and the Global Gateway Strategy, which were adopted in September 2021, and aimed at demonstrating Europe’s commitment to multilateralism in the Asian region. 

One of the main objectives of EU-Indo-Pacific cooperation is to strengthen strategic connectivity with Indo-Pacific partners by implementing the Global Gateway through the mobilization of a EUR 300 billion project for connectivity infrastructure projects, good governance, and environmental sustainability, including the transition to climate neutrality.

Moreover, the EU agreed to strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific to support regional security and stability while reaffirming the EU’s commitment to international and maritime law in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). 

The EU voiced its intention to coordinate with its Indo-Pacific partners in strengthening maritime presence in the North-West Indian Ocean as well in the South China Sea, aiming at supporting stability and security in the region. The meeting also confirmed the joint commitment between the members of the two regions to ensure freedom of navigation. 

Another issue discussed was to allow the EU to have a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific region and to help facilitate cooperation between partners by enhancing the information exchange process. 

The focus was specifically on security and defence, as part of the discussion regarded the ongoing power game between China and the United States to establish stronger ties in the Indo-Pacific region, creating a limited choice for countries in the Indo-Pacific area. 

Participants agreed to speed up the implementation of the 2021 EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, which includes initiatives in the fields of security, digital connectivity, climate change, and biodiversity, and committed to establishing its economic and political presence in the region with the objective to provide an alternative to the current choice between the United States and China. [European Council on Foreign Relations] [EEAS Europa]

(bs/bp)

United Kingdom: UK, Japan sign LOA to conduct research on world-leading fighter jet sensor

The United Kingdom and Japan signed on February 15 a Letter of Arrangement to conduct cooperative research on a world-leading fighter jet sensor that will detect lethal threats. [GOVUK]

It will create 75 British jobs, including 40 engineering jobs in Scotland, and is part of the UK’s Combat Air Strategy, backed by £2 billion of funding during the next four years, the British government said in a statement. [GOVUK] 

The universal radio frequency sensor technology, known as “JAGUAR,” could enable the armed forces to better detect future threats from air, land and sea, quickly and accurately locating targets and denying surveillance technology operated by our adversaries. [GOVUK]

(gc)

United Kingdom: Special Envoy on LGBT+ rights visited Argentina to strengthen global equality progress

The UK Prime Minister’s Special Envoy on LGBT+ rights, Lord Nick Herbert, visited Argentina in February, meeting with counterparts in the Argentinian government and with civil society organisations. [GOVUK]

LGBT+ information app, QUIR, was launched at the British Embassy in Buenos Aires by local civil society organisation Kidz, the British government said in a statement on February 17. This trip is part of Lord Herbert’s activity to galvanise ambitious action on LGBT+ rights ahead of the Safe To Be Me conference in London, according to the statement. [GOVUK]

The UK and Argentina work together closely on LGBT+ rights.

(gc)

United Kingdom: UK to co-host summit to address Afghanistan humanitarian crisis

The UK will co-host an upcoming United Nations virtual pledging summit to help address the growing humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan. [GOVUK]

Donor countries, UN agencies and Afghan civil society are expected to take part in the virtual event, the UK government said in a statement. Pledges made at the summit will go towards the UN’s biggest-ever appeal for a single country, it said on February 15.  [GOVUK]

The UN is seeking to raise $4.4 billion to help over 24.4 million Afghans needing urgent humanitarian help to survive. Half the country’s population are facing acute hunger. The summit will aim to garner international support to help Afghans access basic services, particularly health and education. Funding is channelled through trusted UN agencies and charities on the ground.  [GOVUK]

(gc)

United Kingdom: UK passes first stage of accession process for Trans-Pacific Partnership

The United Kingdom has passed the first stage of the accession process for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), meaning its overall approach to trade was approved. [Politico] [GOVUK]

London will move on to the second and final phase of the process, the actual negotiations on market access to the trade group, to join the £8.4  trillion CPTPP free trade area. The announcement on February 18 came ahead of Trade Secretary’s Anne-Marie Trevelyan’s visit to Indonesia, Japan and Singapore to oversee the launch of the final accession stage and deepen trade ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region.  [Politico] [GOVUK] 

Benefits of UK accession could include new guarantees of access to services markets, providing valuable opportunities for the UK’s world-class services industry to increase exports to CPTPP countries. It could ensure UK businesses are in an even better position to expand their digital reach in the global marketplace thanks to CPTPP’s modern rules for digital trade across all sectors of the economy. [GOVUK]

It will make it easier for some UK exports to qualify for preferential tariff treatment than under bilateral free trade agreements alone and increasing demand amongst CPTPP members for imports of UK goods such as British engines. CPTPP’s rules of origin means traders can more easily import goods from other members. [GOVUK]

(gc)

United Kingdom: Think-tank sees risks to British economy from trade deal with India

The United Kingdom could benefit equally from a trade deal with India as it would from an agreement with the US but it could expose the British economy to tougher competition, the Resolution Foundation think-tank said in a report. [The Guardian]

The Resolution Foundation said successful talks between London and New Delhi could gain a “first-mover” advantage in India and replicate the success of German manufacturing exporters to China. The think-tank cautioned that there was a risk of British business services firms being undercut by lower-cost Indian rivals in a repeat of the hollowing out of US manufacturing by Chinese competition. [The Guardian]

(gc)

India holds talks with Belarus Potash despite sanctions against Minsk

India is in talks with state-run Belarus Potash Co. to buy 1 million tonnes of potash despite crippling international sanctions that prevent Minsk from selling the crop nutrient to global markets, Reuters reported on February 2, citing two Indian officials familiar with the talks. [Euractiv]

To avoid sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on Belarus conducting transactions in dollars or euros, the state-run potash company could open a rupee account with an Indian bank, Reuters reported, citing the officials. [Euractiv]

The EU, US and other western nations have taken coordinated action to ramp up sanctions against Belarus in response to its continued alleged abuses of human rights and incitement of migrants to illegally cross 

European Union borders. The ramped-up sanctions came during a crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border, where migrants still face difficult conditions in their attempts to enter the EU.  [Europe Monthly No.1 January 2022]

(gc)

United Kingdom: Britain joins Australia in establishing diplomatic missions in Maldives

The United Kingdom established a high commission in the Maldives, becoming the first European country to officially open a mission in Malé, a week after Australia announced its plans to do the same, developments that demonstrate the growing geostrategic importance of the Indian Ocean archipelago. [Avas]

In light of Canberra’s announcement, all members of the four-nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – the United States, Australia, Japan and India – will have permanent missions in the Maldives by the end of 2023.

(lm/gc)

Polish aerospace company signs deal with Philippines over military helicopters 

The Philippines’ defence secretary has signed a USD 624 million deal with Poland aerospace manufacturer company PZL Mielec to purchase 32 S-70i Black Hawks, training for pilots, maintenance crews, and logistical backup. The helicopters can be used for troop transport, combat operations and disaster response. 

This is the second purchase the Philippines has made from PZL Mielec; 16 Black Hawks were previously purchased and used to respond to a typhoon in December 2021.[Business Standard] [AiR No. 7, February/2022, 3] [AiR No. 4, January/2022, 4] [AiR No. 4, January/2022, 4]

(lb)

Moldova: Government considers deal with Azerbaijan on gas supplies as inflation bites

Moldova is considering an agreement with Azerbaijan to buy natural gas as the import-dependent country struggles with energy supply shortages and double-digit inflation. [Argus] 

Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu brought up the possible cooperation deal with Azerbaijan during a meeting of the southern gas corridor advisory council in early February.  [Argus] 

Moldova relies entirely on pipeline imports from Russia for its natural gas. It also has no significant refining capacity and imports most of its petroleum liquids, according to the US Energy Information Administration.[Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Moldova’s energy-important dependency is causing economic problems for the government as it struggles to pay for its gas-import bill. 

Moldova declared in January a new 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector that will redirect funds to Russia’s Gazprom to pay for its natural gas bills. The government also declared a state of emergency in October.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

The country’s consumer prices rose 16.56 percent year-on-year in January, compared to 13.94 percent in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on February 10. The main inflation driver in January were food prices, which accelerated 21.5 percent year-on-year, BNS said in a statement. Seenews

(gc)

Albania: Government wants to double agricultural exports to Western Europe 

Albania wants to double its agricultural exports to Western Europe as the post-communist country tries to support employment and expand its gross domestic product.   

Agriculture Minister Frida Krifca said the goal is to increase the value of fruit and vegetable exports to EUR 1 billion by 2025 from the current EUR 400 million a year by providing direct aid to farmers and processors. The sector accounts for 20 percent of Albania’s GDP and 40 percent of employment. [Fruitnet]

Krifca, appointed in September as Prime Minister Edi Rama, has pledged to expand agriculture exports. [Ekathimerini]

(gc)

Bulgaria: Sofia will maintain veto on North Macedonia’s EU accession until it changes constitution

Bulgaria will maintain its veto on North Macedonia’s accession to the European Union until the country recognizes the constitutional rights of ethnic Bulgarians even as ties between the two countries show signs of improving. 

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said that constitutional guarantees and a clear timetable by North Macedonia are needed to move forward on the issue of its EU membership. North Macedonia’s constitution recognises different ethnicities, like Bosnians and Albanians, but it does not name Bulgarians. [Euractiv] [Euractiv] [BTA]. 

During an interview with Euractiv, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said the countries have started working on a plan to improve ties. He said both countries have to tackle “years of negative propaganda,” which will require changes in the North Macedonian constitution. [Euractiv]

Petkov and his North Macedonian counterpart, Dimitar Kovacevski, met on 18 January in Skopje, where they agreed to form joint working groups and open a flight between Sofia and Skopje within two months. The working groups, known as the four-plus-one, will focus on economic issues, infrastructure, European integration, trade, education, culture, and history. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

In 2020, Bulgaria opposed North Macedonia’s EU accession talks because of a dispute over language, history and heritage. Its previous government under Boyko Borissov blamed North Macedonia for not complying with the Friendship Treaty signed in 2017, which was supposed to promote cooperation and alleviate disagreement. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Radev told EU ambassadors in early February that Bulgaria’s position on North Macedonia would not change until the rights of Macedonian Bulgarians were recognised.  He asked for understanding and support from the European allies. [Euractiv]  

Radev, who has generally been less sanguine about his country’s relationship with North Macedonia, pointed to hate speech laws, violations of Bulgarian cultural and historical heritage as being unresolved. He called upon both governments to implement a schedule for resolving the issues, one with clear guarantees.

“Before starting with the negotiations there must be clear guarantees protecting our cultural and historical heritage in North Macedonia, to see a clear and stable process of eradication of hate speech” in addition to constitutionally recognising the rights of Macedonian Bulgarians, he said [BTA]. 

(ib/gc)

Bulgaria: US delivery of F-16 fighter jets will be delayed amid supply chain disruptions

The deliveries of US F-16 fighter jets in a deal worth about $1.2 billion will be delayed by more than two years, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said in a television interview on February 12 with Nova Televizia. [The Sofia Globe]

The US Embassy said in a February 12 statement that the delays were due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The US remains committed to Bulgari’s military modernization and will continue to train together during bilateral and multinational exercises, the embassy said in the statement. [The Sofia Globe]  

Under the terms of the initial agreement, Bulgaria was supposed to receive two fighter jets in 2023 and six in 2024. 

Bulgaria had been bolstering its military during the Ukrainian crisis. Spain sent up to seven Eurofighter jets to Bulgaria, while the Netherlands dispatched two F-35 stealth fighters, Bulgarian Defence Minister Stefan Yanev said. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

(gc)

Bulgarian PM, Serbian counterpart meet to discuss regional joint energy market

Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his Serbian counterpart, Ana Branbić, met in Belgrade on 8 February to discuss the establishment of a joint energy market to spur economic growth in the Western Balkans. [EURACTIV]

Petkov said that energy connections between Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Greece, Serbia and Romania and the creation of a unified natural gas market could see economic growth in the Western Balkans increase significantly. Petkov, who also met with the Serbian President Aleksander Vučić during his visit to Serbia, said that “our goal is for all of us to be united in a single market.” [BNR]

Since Bulgaria’s presidency of the Council of the EU in 2018, it has sought to regain its role in leading European integration in the Western Balkans. After the fall of communism, Bulgaria sought closer economic ties to European nations and became a member of the EU in 2007.

Petkov said that he would support Serbia’s accession to the EU although there were several “stumbling blocks” in the way from Kosovo to regional security. Serbia officially applied for EU membership in 2009 and negotiations are ongoing.

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Child pornography dissemination increased in Europe during pandemic, watchdog says

The dissemination of child pornography increased significantly across Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, according to the Internet Watch Foundation, the largest European hotline for the reporting of Child Sexual Abuse Material. [Euractiv][IWF]

The circulation of webcam-generated sexual content has surged almost fourfold compared to pre-pandemic levels, Internet Watch Foundation said. In 2021, the watchdog removed 252,000 webpages containing child sexual abuse imagery from the internet, it said. [Euractiv][IWF]

“We are supportive of the EU’s plans to bring forward new legislation to address this abhorrent crime and we hope that it includes a clearer strategy to prevent the creation of this imagery and improve the situation with Europe’s hosting issues,” IWF said on February 8. [IWF]

“In some cases, children are groomed, deceived or extorted into producing and sharing a sexual image or video of themselves,” IWF said. “There is no adult physically present in the room.”

Most of these webpages are hosted on image boards and cyberlockers hosted on servers located in Europe.   [Euractiv][IWF]

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Serbia: President Vucic meets Chinese leader Xi in Beijing to discuss bilateral cooperation

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on 5 February, the seventh official meeting between the two leaders as the two countries aimed to improve political and economic ties. 

Vucic said that a free trade agreement between the two nations could be signed by the end of the year. Xi described China and Serbia as “ironclad friends” with a high degree of mutual political trust, adding that bilateral relations had improved.[EURACTIV]

During the meeting, Xi said that Beijing and Belgrade should further improve their cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative. Belt and Road is a huge infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to connect China to western regions via overland road and rail routes. [EURACTIV]

The two countries have improved economic and political ties during the last two years. Amid the initial wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, China and Serbia announced a narrative of a “steel friendship,” which they have since maintained.[AP]

China has heavily invested into Serbia in recent years with billions of dollars’ worth of loans and construction projects. This has benefited Serbia as Vucic tries to increase foreign investment and align with powerful international partners. 

The timing and positive economic message from the state visit could benefit Vucic ahead of the presidential, parliamentary and local elections scheduled to be held in Serbia on 3 April. The two leaders met in China as Vučić arrived for the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics Games held in Beijing. [Chinese Embassy to UK][EURACTIV]

(nw/gc)

Constitutional Law and Politics in Western Europe

Belgium: Police 13 arrest in anti-terror raids around port city of Antwerp

Belgium police arrested 13 people in and around the port city of Antwerp as part of an investigation into alleged terrorism activities. [AP]

About 100 police officers were involved in the operation in the European country that detained suspects who were part of a group with links to Salafist circles, a conservative form of Islamic thinking, the federal prosecutor’s office said on February 8. The operation was not launched to stop an imminent attack. [AP]

Belgium has been hit a by series of terrorist attacks in the past decade. In 2016, suicide bombers killed 32 people and injured hundreds in the Brussels subway and airport. 

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Belgium: Francophone teachers protest financial cuts, poor working conditions

Thousands of Belgium's Francophone teachers and school faculty protested in Brussels on February 10 against financial cuts and poor working conditions in the country’s education sector. [Euronews]

After two years of the Covid-19 pandemic and government imposed restrictions, educators are frustrated with oversized classes, school buildings requiring extensive maintenance and general staff shortages. They said that the authorities are only interested in reducing costs, that school protocols change constantly and that they now spend most of their time managing absences.  [Euronews] 

The protesters threatened to align with their European colleagues to demand real change and make authorities understand that school is an investment in the future. [Euronews]

The Wallonian minister responsible for education, Pierre-Yves Jeholet, said that  the Walloon government had made additional money available to its schools to help manage the pandemic, but stressed that funds are "not unlimited."  [Euronews]

Some police unions also threatened to hold a national strike after the government unveiled a new pay-and-conditions package for officers, who have criticized their low wages and uncertainty over pension schemes. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

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France: French president pledges to build 14 nuclear reactors as higher energy prices hit Europe 

French President Emmanuel Macron pledged to build 14 new-generation nuclear reactors, saying it was “the time has come for a nuclear renaissance” as higher energy prices slow European economic growth and cut into household incomes across the bloc. 

France plans to add six new high-tech pressurised water reactors by 2028 at existing nuclear facilities and will build eight more by 2050, Macron said in a speech in February. He also pledged to build smaller nuclear power plants as part of the country’s drive to be carbon-free. [New York Times]

France currently generates about 70 percent of its electricity from nuclear plants, according to the World Nuclear Association. It has 56 operable nuclear power plants. [World Nuclear Association]

Macron’s nuclear push comes as Europe debates how to source power supplies as they move toward cleaner and renewable energy. Germany is staunchly against nuclear power  as it plans to shut down its three remaining nuclear facilities. German officials have said they will challenge a European Commission proposal to include nuclear power and natural gas in the bloc’s sustainable finance taxonomy. 

Economies across Europe are suffering from inflationary pressure due to global bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. 

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France: Indonesia signs agreement to buy at least six Rafale fighter jets

France signed an agreement on February 10 to sell six Rafale fighter jets to Indonesia as Paris strengthens its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region to counterbalance China's increasing military dominance. Indonesia will buy a total of 42 Rafale fighter jets in a deal worth $8.1 billion. The Defence Post

The order for French fighter jets comes as Indonesia replaces its ageing fleet of American F-16s and Russian Sukhois equipment amid the US-China rivalry and with Indonesia positioned at the diplomatic centre of this rivalry in Southeast Asia. The ASEAN region is trying to maintain a neutral position, balancing its historical ties with the West and a rising China.[AiR Weekly, February 15]

Indonesia also signed a letter of intent with France for research and development in submarines, with Indonesia potentially ordering two Scorpene submarines in the near future. The deal is expected to help France improve ties with Indonesia and rebuild its alliances in the region

Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto met his French counterpart Florence Parly in Jakarta, where the deal was signed. The Defence Post

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France: UAE will receive support from Paris against missile attacks from Iran-backed militia

France said on February 4 it will help the United Arab Emirates protect its airspace against attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen days after its Gulf ally intercepted and destroyed three hostile drones fired from the poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula. [The Defence Post]

“To show our solidarity with this friendly country, France has decided to provide military backing, notably to protect their airspace from any intrusion,” French Defence Minister Florence Parly said in a tweet. [The Defence Post]

The US has also said it would boost its military presence to defend its ally after the Houthi rebels extended the range of their missile attacks. The Iranian-backed fighters had previously only been able to reach Saudi Arabia and regularly launch attacks against the Saudi capital in Riyadh and other cities in the world’s largest oil supplier.  

The US will continue to provide early warning intelligence, collaborate on air defence and has sent the Navy guided missile destroyer USS Cole to partner with the UAE navy before making a port call in Abu Dhabi, the US Embassy said in a statement. The US will deploy 5th Generation Fighter aircraft to assist the Persian Gulf against the current threat. [US Embassy]

Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III  reiterated his strong condemnation of these attacks, and his commitment to the US-UAE strategic partnership in a call with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. [US Embassy]

The UAE announced the interception and destruction in early February of three “hostile’’ drones. This followed three previous drone and missile attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels since January 17. 

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Germany: Rising energy costs are a threat to the economy, industrial association says

A double digit increase in energy prices in Germany has hurt the country’s industries and could force some companies to move production abroad, a survey by the Federal Association of German Industry (BDI) showed as geo-political tensions and supply bottlenecks impact energy supplies globally.

Rising energy costs “could crush the economy,” BDI-president, Siegfried Russwurm, said in a February report. Higher costs affect production in Germany and many medium-sized companies may “think about relocating abroad,” he said. [Bloomberg]

With energy prices accelerating 20.5 percent year on year in January, about a third of German companies have had to defer investments in climate neutrality, which is an effort to reduce companies’ dependence on hydrocarbon fuels. [Spiegel] [Zeit] [Politico Europe]

Responding to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send his troops into Ukraine’s disputed territories, Germany announced on February 22 that it would shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, joining President Biden and America’s NATO allies in a coordinated package of sweeping economic sanctions against Russia.

Russwurm said days after his comments about energy prices that Germany’s biggest industry lobby group condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the hostilities immediately. [The Wall Street Journal]

“Industry is shocked by Russia's aggression. We condemn in the strongest possible terms the attack on Ukraine. We urge President Putin to abide by international law and cease hostilities immediately,” Russwurm said. German industry backed the tough stance the West is taking in the wake of the Russian invasion, including tough economic sanctions that could hurt German companies. [The Wall Street Journal]

Prior to the invasion, businesses have expressed concerns about a further increase in already exceptionally high energy prices. Germany receives around 55 percent of its natural gas supply from Russia.  [Politico Europe] [Süddeutsche] 

Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck said a “short-term rise” in energy prices due to the conflict in Ukraine is possible. He said Germany’s “supply is secure” but the dependency on Russian gas “has to be reduced”. [Süddeutsche]

Inflationary pressure is also impacting German household spending. 

Families in Germany will pay about EUR 6,000 for energy this year, a 57 percent increase from January 2021, an analysis by online comparison portal Check24 showed. Steffen Suttner, energy director of the portal, said prices of “almost all sorts of energy are at an all-time high”. [Spiegel]

Energy prices across the EU have been “strongly influenced by high global demand and mounting geopolitical tensions,” a draft of the European Commission’s communication on energy prices said. The energy crisis, “triggered by high gas prices and exacerbated by deteriorating relations with Europe’s main gas supplier, Russia” will last until 2023, according to the draft. [EURACTIV]

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Germany: Broadcaster Deutsche Welle fires five employees after anti-Semitism allegations

Deutsche Welle fired five employees after an independent investigation into alleged anti-Semitism among journalists at the German broadcaster.

Deutsche Welle commissioned an independent investigation after accusations of anti-Semitism had been made against employees of the broadcaster’s Arabic Service and freelance journalists in November 2021. Eleven other cases are being examined. [Deutsche Welle] [Tagesschau] [Zeit] [Spiegel]

Two Palestinian-German journalists were let go from their jobs as part of the crackdown. The inquiry said Zahi Alawi and Yasser Abu Muailek published social media posts in 2014 that were anti-Semitic, an accusation based on the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of anti-Semitism. [Al Jazeera]

Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a former German justice minister, and psychologist Ahmad Mansour led the investigation. They found no evidence of structural anti-Semitism at Deutsche Welle but  recommended further dialogue and clear guidelines on anti-Semitism for its employees. [Zeit] [Deutsche Welle]

The investigation at Deutsche Welle has come amid an increase in anti-Semitic crimes in Germany. Data from the Interior Ministry on February 17 showed that they reached a new peak in 2021. [Spiegel] [Zeit]

The European Commission published a report in 2021 that showed a surge of anti-Semitic online content during the pandemic in Germany and France. “There is an increasing, worrying tendency of anti-Semitic attacks and sentiments across the European Union,” the Commission’s Vice President, Margaritis Schinas, said in October 2021. [Politico Europe] [EURACTIV]

Foreign Minister Annalena Bearbock emphasised in her inaugural visit in January to Israel the importance of fighting anti-Semitism. [Zeit]

 (mb/gc)

Germany: Federal prosecutors charge women for joining Islamic State, child endangerment

Federal prosecutors have charged a German woman for allegedly joining the terrorist organisation “Islamic State” after travelling to Syria with her underage son in 2015.

Prosecutors said she allegedly ran the household for her new husband, which allowed ‘’him to be an IS-fighter,’’ and raised her son according to the radical ideas of the terrorist group. They also charged her with “child endangerment, breaching her duty of care as a parent and breaking arms control laws.”

She was detained in Syria in 2019 and lived in a camp until her return to Germany in late 2021 and has been in custody since then. [Spiegel] [Zeit] [AP]

More than 1,150 people went from Germany to Syria or Iraq to join Islamic State, and more than a quarter of them were women, according to data from the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Around a third of all those have returned to Germany, while some are still being detained in Syria or Iraq.

Federal prosecutors pressed charges against another alleged IS fighter who returned to the country in January. The woman was sent back on a flight with eight other women, who had all allegedly joined IS and 23 children. The women are being investigated for supporting a terrorist organisation. [Spiegel] [AP]

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Germany: Twitter blocks profiles of adult content creators in Germany from late 2020

Twitter has taken down at least 60 accounts of adult content creators in Germany since the end of 2020 after a legal order restricted access to online pornography based on age verification systems. [Wired]

In June 2020, the Commission for the Protection of Minors (KJM) in the Media challenged internet pornography sites because they did not follow youth protection laws in Germany. They are required to have an age verification system in place. [FAZ] [Spiegel]

An administrative court in Düsseldorf decided in December 2021 that the KJM was allowed to block adult content sites if they did not comply with German legislation and implement age verification systems. [Spiegel]

Twitter does not have an age verification system set up. To comply with the legal orders that no one under the age of 18 has access to accounts sharing pornographic content, Twitter is blocking them for anyone in Germany. [Wired]

Critics have argued that the German approach lacks transparency. There are thousands of Twitter accounts that post adult content, and those the KJM has reported to Twitter appear to have large followings or are subject to individual complaints. [Wired]

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Germany: Government says Covid-19 restrictions to be lifted by 20 March

Germany will lift most Covid-19 pandemic restrictions on social, cultural and economic activities by March 20 as infection rates start to decline in Europe’s largest economy.  [Zeit] [Spiegel] [EURACTIV]

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and 16 state governors endorsed on February 16 a three-step plan to lift them. “The peak has now probably been reached” and “a constantly improved situation” is expected in the coming weeks, Scholz said. [AP]

The plan will start by ending restrictions on people without proof of vaccination or recovering from visiting non-essential stores and lifting limits on private gatherings of vaccinated people. For the unvaccinated, restrictions on private gatherings will be kept in place until 19 March.[AP]

From 4 March, restrictions on restaurants, hotels, nightclubs and concerts or other events will be eased with people able to enter showing a negative PCR test, rather than proof of vaccination. From 20 March all “far-reaching measures' ' will be dropped if the situation in hospitals allows. Only low-threshold measures such as wearing masks will be kept then. [Spiegel] [EURACTIV] [Politico Europe] [AP]

Germany joins Austria and Switzerland in ending Covid-19 restrictions across Europe. Switzerland, which had similar restrictions on restaurants and theatres or mandatory masks in stores, decided to drop all measures on February 17. [Politico Europe] [AP] [SRF]

The COVID-19 pandemic has dented global and European economic growth as governments imposed strict lockdowns to prevent the virus from spreading more widely. 

The German economy lost EUR 350 billion since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as consumer spending dipped and investment declined during the lockdown,  the German Economic Institute said. A full recovery will likely take years even if economic growth improves in 2022, the institute said on 23 January. Consumer confidence remains low and manufacturing is being impacted by global supply chain problems, it said.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Germany’s more restrictive measures included a limitation of private gatherings to 10 people and restrictions to restaurants and retail stores for unvaccinated persons. A rule that required employers to allow work from home will also be lifted. [Deutsche Welle] [Zeit]

Scholz said caution is still needed and “we must not become careless” after the meeting with the regional leaders. [Spiegel] [EURACTIV] [Politico Europe]

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Germany: Greenpeace chief to lead German international climate policy

The former head of Greenpeace International was appointed as the special international climate protection envoy in Germany’s foreign ministry, a role that will emphasise developing partnerships with other countries around climate change, amid controversy about her background. [Süddeutsche] [Spiegel] [EURACTIV]

American Jennifer Morgan will start her role on March 1 then eventually become a state minister after getting her German citizenship. Morgan has been living in Germany since 2003 and has already applied for German nationality. [Süddeutsche] [Spiegel] [EURACTIV]

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Morgan has “great expertise, networking and credibility” in international climate policy. She will develop partnerships with other countries around climate change and lead dialogue with civil society globally, Baerbock said.  [Süddeutsche] [Zeit]

Morgan will represent Germany at the annual UN world climate conference “Conference of Parties” (COP), which will next be held in November in Egypt. [Süddeutsche] [Spiegel] [EURACTIV] The major opposition party criticised her appointment. Members of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) said the decision was “lobbyism” and that German international climate policy would “lose power of persuasion” now that it is “labelled Greenpeace”. [Süddeutsche] [Zeit] [EURACTIV]

Transparency International, an international non-government organisation that fights corruption, said the choice was unproblematic. Morgan’s appointment was not a “financial benefit for Greenpeace,” Hartmut Bäumer, chairman of Transparency International in Germany, said.  [Spiegel] [Süddeutsche] [Zeit]

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Germany: President Steinmeier re-elected for second term

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was elected for a second five-year term on February 13 to the largely ceremonial role of head of state in Germany.

The incumbent won 77 percent of support at a Federal Convention in Berlin. The session consisted of members of Germany's Bundestag along with an equal number of delegates chosen by the country's 16 states. [MSN]

He had been nominated by the government coalition parties of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Liberals (FDP) as well as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance of the opposition. [Spiegel] [Süddeutsche] [Politico Europe]

In his acceptance speech, Steinmeier emphasised the importance of democratic values and appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid conflict in Europe.“Russia bears the responsibility” for conflict in Eastern Europe and should “help find a way to keep peace in Europe,” he said. [ZDF] [Politico Europe]

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Ireland: Defence forces unable to protect country without major budget increases

Ireland’s defence forces are unable to protect the country against an attack for a sustained period of time unless the budget of its military is increased significantly, according to a report by the Commission on the Defence Forces,

The country’s military is ‘’not equipped, postured or realistically prepared to conduct a meaningful defence of the state against a full spectrum force for any sustained period,’’ the commission said in February. The commission proposed three wide-ranging scenarios with budgetary increases from 50 percent to 300 percent. 

Without increasing the budget, the country is unable to defend against internal and external threats, including threats from Islamic and right-wing extremists and activities of Russia and China. It would also have to reduce its peacekeeping abilities. 

Increasing spending by 50 percent, the second option, would allow Ireland to modernise its air defences by acquiring a new radar system. The military is currently unable to detect aircraft over Irish territory if they turn off their responders. [Sunday Independent]

The third proposal would triple the budget to EUR 3 billion a year. This would allow the military to boost its force structure to 13,500 from 9,500. The navy would acquire extra vessels and the air force, which currently does not have any fighter jets, would be equipped with between 12 and 24 jets. [Irish Examiner]

The report was released after Russia said it would hold planned naval exercises outside of Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone after intense criticism from the Irish government, who said the drills were “not welcomed” amid the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Moscow and Western nations before it sent troops into Ukraine. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

With no primary radar system, Ireland effectively has no capacity to carry out detailed surveillance on the Russian ships, instead relying on NATO navies. [Independent]

The chair of the commission, Aidan O’Driscoll said tripling the defence budget might seem outlandish but that it would only bring Ireland in line with other small European countries. [Irish Times]

Ireland spends only 0.27 percent of its GDP on defence, which is the lowest of all 27 EU countries. Ireland has a long history of neutrality, is not a member of NATO and has never gone to war in the 100 years since the state was founded.

The report also criticised how the forces handled grievances of its members, citing a masculine culture, a lack of appreciation for diversity and a resistance to female participation. It recommends the Defence Forces should aim to achieve 35 percent female participation by 2025 — five times the current rate.

A group representing female members of the Defence Forces, who allege they suffered discrimination and sexual harassment in the military, walked out of a meeting with the Minister for Defence, claiming the meeting was a “waste of time.” [Irish Times]

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Ireland: Sinn Fein deputy leader urges Irish government to prepare for a united Ireland

Sinn Fein deputy leader Michelle O'Neill has urged the Irish government to prepare for a united Ireland, saying that the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union could lead to a referendum on unification. [SkyNews]

"Well I certainly think we're closer than we've ever been previously and I think now is the time to plan and that's why we're saying to the Irish government, now is the time for them to make the preparation,’’ O'Neill said,  "Let's not fall into the traps that have been fallen into in terms of Brexit. Make the preparation, let's start to have a healthy conversation about things that matter every day to people.’’ [SkyNews]

Ms O'Neill said Brexit had illustrated that the British government would never prioritise the interests of people in Northern Ireland. [MSN]

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Netherlands: Dutch central bank regrets links to slavery 

The Central Bank of Netherlands’ (DNB) said on February 9 that the bank deeply regrets the role it played in slavery and it “does not wish to disregard its past” after an independent study found that it financed and participated in the slave trade. [DNB Press Conference][DNB][NRC][Euractiv]

The study found that 11 of the central bank’s 16 major initial capital providers were directly linked to slavery and that its officials were “personally, administratively and politically” involved in slavery “to a greater extent than their contemporaries.” [NRC][DNB Press Conference]

DNB played an ‘’active part in the persistence of slavery,’’ central bank governor Klaas Knot said at the presentation of the study. ‘’More than others at that time, DNB directors were involved personally and politically with colonial slavery.” [Business Day]

Several directors actively lobbied against the abolishment of slavery and profited from investments made in the colonies, with three out of six directors receiving compensation when slavery was abolished. The central bank was founded in 1814, the same year slavery was banned in the Netherlands, though it was not abolished until 1863. [DNB Press Conference][Euractiv].

While the DNB had no branches in the colonies, the study revealed that the bank supported the Ministry of Colonies in its transactions and that that nearly 30 percent of the goods the central bank traded, including sugar and coffee, were produced by slave labour. 

Knot said the central bank contributed to the persistence of slavery since it “formed an integral part of the financial system” and “because of the role it played in the Dutch economy.” [NRC][DNB Press Conference]

The central bank has said that it wishes “to find an appropriate manner to make a gesture of lasting value to those affected and Dutch society at large.” As a first step, it will continue to foster a dialogue on these findings through the creation of a focus group.[DNB][NRC][DNB Press Conference]

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Netherlands: Dutch antitrust watchdog fines Apple over App Store requirements

Dutch regulators have fined Apple EUR 25 million since a dispute over alternative payment systems for dating apps started.

The Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM) said it has not received any new proposal from Apple with which the company would comply with ACM’s requirements. The ACM said the fines will continue until the required changes are made or the EUR 50 million cap is reached. [Reuters][NRC][NRC] “We have clearly explained to Apple how they can comply with ACM’s requirements. So far, however, they have refused to put forward any serious proposals,’’ ACM said in a statement. ‘’We find Apple’s attitude regrettable, especially so since ACM’s requirements were upheld in court on December 24. Apple’s so-called ‘solutions’ continue to create too many barriers for dating-app providers that wish to use their own payment systems.’’ [TechCrunch]

While 85 percent of Apple’s app providers pay a one-off fee of EUR 99 per year to use the App store, apps offering digital services, such as dating apps, pay a 30 percent commission on every transaction. In December 2021, the ACM called this an abuse of power and a limit to the freedom of choice of both dating app providers and users. [NRC][NRC]

Apple has moved to allow dating app makers in the Netherlands to “submit a new app with alternative payment methods enabled,” and has indicated it will charge a 27 percent commission on every such transaction. These changes have been rejected by the ACM “for putting an unreasonable burden on software developers and not amounting to compliance.” [Reuters]

Apple’s App store payment system is being challenged around the world, including in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the European Union.[NRC][NRC]

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United Kingdom: PM Johnson rejigs his cabinet after senior ministers resign

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has started to rebuild his cabinet after four of his top aides resigned under withering criticism for their behaviour after a series of political failures.

Andrew Griffith, an MP from Arundel and South Downs, who has been serving as Johnson’s parliamentary private secretary, was named policy chief, replacing Munira Mirza. Jacob Rees-Mogg was appointed minister for Brexit opportunities and Chris Heaton-Harris became the new chief whip, in charge of disciplining Conservative MPs - some of whom have called on Mr Johnson to resign.[The Telegraph][BBC[

Dominic Raab was appointed justice minister after losing his post as foreign minister. Raab was criticised for being on a holiday in Crete during the advance of the radical Islamic Taliban in Afghanistan. Liz Truss, former trade minister, replaced Raab, and will also remain Minister for Women and Equality. [BBC]

Johnson’s long-time ally Michael Gove was appointed housing minister, replacing Robert Jenrick. Gove will focus on the promised alignment of living conditions between the prosperous south of England and the economically dependent North. A native Scotsman, he is also responsible for the topic of unity in the United Kingdom. [Deutsche Welle]

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Interior Minister Priti Patel will remain in office.[BBC]

Johnson had to reshuffle his cabinet after a series of top resignations that came amid political scandals. Former adviser Dominic Cummings said Mirza’s departure was “an unmistakable signal the bunker is collapsing and this PM is finished”. [The National]

Dan Rosenfield, his chief of staff, Martin Reynolds, his principal private secretary, and his director of communications, Jack Doyle, left their position. Justice Minister Robert Buckland also vacated his post.[The National]

On Twitter, Buckland wrote that it has been an honour to have served in the government for the past seven years and as Lord Chancellor for the past two years. Similar to Buckland, Education Minister Gavin Williamson announced his resignation by tweet before the official announcement.

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United Kingdom: London police chief resigns amid accusations of discrimination by officers

London’s police chief Dame Cressida Dick has resigned from her post after the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, withdrew his support amid accusations of racism, sexism, and anti-feminism among police officers. 

The 61-year-old said that the city’s police had to rebuild much-lost public confidence and that she had “no choice but to resign.” Dick, the first woman to be appointed head of the London Metropolitan Police, will remain in office until a successor is appointed. [Independent]

Her resignation on February 10 came as ongoing scandals tarnish the reputation of the metropolitan police force. Last year, a police officer raped and murdered Sarah Everard after arresting her, an incident that sparked a public outcry about  women’s safety and the internal security requirements of the police.

In early February, an independent investigative body denounced the “shocking” behaviour of police officers. According to the report, between 2016 and 2018, police from Sharing Cross station shared racist, sexist, homophobic and violent messages via WhatsApp and Facebook. The department concerned has since been closed.  [BBC] 

Khan said he was "not satisfied" with Cressida's response to the scale of change required to "root out" racism, sexism, homophobia, bullying and misogyny in the metropolitan police forces. "On being informed of this, Dame Cressida Dick has said she will be standing aside," he said.  [BBC]

The London police were also criticised for their slow investigations into the lockdown parties at Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s headquarters on Downing Street. The investigation is still ongoing.

The Home Office has started the recruitment process for the next commissioner, which was not due to begin until Dame Cressida's contract extension expired in April 2024. Because the position must be announced publicly and subject to an open competition, the appointment is expected to take months rather than weeks. [The Independent]

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United Kingdom: CMA fines Meta £1.5 million for breaching Giphy acquisition enforcement order

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority fined Meta £1.5 million on February 4 for failing to meet the terms of an earlier order related to its acquisition of Giphy that required the American company to inform the watchdog of the departure of high-level staff. 

The fine was issued after three US employees left the company. The CMA also charged Meta a £500,000 penalty for changing its chief compliance officer twice without prior consent, saying it had failed to inform the watchdog of multiple staff changes in 2021. 

A Meta spokesperson said the company was ‘’disappointed” by the CMA’s decision because of the voluntary departure of US-based employees.  It intends to pay the fine, but the spokesperson said ‘’it is problematic’’ that the CMA can take decisions that could directly impact the rights of our US employees protected under US law.

Meta, formerly known as Facebook, was fined EUR 60 million in January by a French regulator for the use of cookies that allow web browsers to store information and provide targeted ads. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

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United Kingdom: Defences ministry publishes Defence Space Strategy with £1.4 billion in extra investments 

The United Kingdom published its Defence Space Strategy (DSS) on February 1 that sets out its ambition to be a meaningful actor in space and details how the country will operationalise this key domain, working closely with allies and partners to keep space safe, secure and sustainable.

The DSS announced an investment of an extra £1.4 billion on space, in addition to the £5 billion already committed to the next generation of Skynet military satellite communications – this represents a significant increase in Government funding for the UK space sector, according to the Ministry of Defence. (GOVUK]

This investment will play a part in stimulating innovation, commercialisation, and growth across the wider sector. Defence will utilise elements of the Defence Space Portfolio funding to further support Space S&T, which includes R&D, alongside existing funding. (GOVUK]

The key findings of the study include that the defence ministry needs to be ambitious and needs to build space literacy in the UK and that defence is likely to be a “market taker” rather than “market maker” in many areas, given the dual-use nature of space technology.

“There is a window of opportunity for UK Defence to do things differently in space,” the defence ministry said 

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Northern Europe

Iceland: Police fear for their safety after multiple shootings in Reykjavík

Iceland’s Association of Police Officers has voiced concern about the safety of officers after recent shootings amid debate over whether police should carry weapons. [Morgunblaðið]

In the wake of two shootings in Reykjavík in one week that left three people injured, [Icenews] Fjölnir Sæmundsson, head of the police association, said that opinions vary on the issue of carrying guns. Sæmundsson told Icelandic newspaper Morgunblaðið: “In general, I believe few police officers want to carry weapons at work.”

He added: “Providing police officers with weapons would bring us a society entirely different from the one we’re used to and an entirely different public attitude toward the police.” [Iceland Monitor]

Only one special unit of the national police in Iceland is armed, with no other officer constantly carrying weapons. [Iceland Monitor] However, the special unit has been called out increasingly often, receiving 300 call outs in 2021, up from around 200 in previous years. 

The association also said police lacked training, adding: “The fact is that too high a ratio of police officers on call have not gone through training at the police academy. They have neither permission nor training to use all the equipment available to the police.” [Iceland Monitor]

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Norway: NATO chief Stoltenberg to be next central bank boss, despite opposition

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will become Norway’s new central bank chief, the government has announced, despite concern that his political links may undermine the bank’s independence. [Euractiv]

Stoltenberg will replace outgoing Governor Øystein Olsen and will be in charge of setting interest rates and managing financial stability, as well as overseeing Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest with assets of USD 1.4 trillion. [EiR January 2022]

Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold said: “I’ve been concerned with identifying the best central bank governor for Norway, and I’m convinced that this is Jens Stoltenberg.” 

He added: “The combination of his financial background, understanding of society, and a leadership experience that few in Norway have, make him very suited to be the top manager of Norges Bank, an institution that manages important societal tasks for us all.” [Financial Times]

Parties representing a majority in parliament opposed the choice of Stoltenberg as governor, arguing that his appointment could undermine the central bank’s independence given his close friendship with the country’s centre-left prime minister, Jonas Gahr Store. [Politico]

Stoltenberg responded to questions about potential conflicts of interest on February 4 by saying: “I am confident that I will do the job in a way that shows that the bank has the independence and integrity it should have.” [Financial Times]

While the governor position is open from March 1, Stoltenberg has said he will first serve out his term at NATO, which runs until the end of September 2022. [Financial Times]

Ida Wolden Bache, who is deputy chief of the central bank and was Stoltenberg’s main rival for the job, will be the acting governor until Stoltenberg takes over, the government said. [Reuters]

A successor to Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary-General is expected to be introduced at a summit of the military alliance's national leaders in Madrid in June. [Politico]

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Sweden: UN experts urge gov’t to stop mine on Sámi land

Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg and independent United Nations experts have opposed an iron-ore mining project on indigenous Sámi land, saying it would violate human rights and harm the environment.  [DW][Reuters][OHCHR] 

British company Beowulf Mining has since 2013 sought a licence for a mining project in the Sápmi region of northern Sweden, also known as Lapland. Sápmi is home to Sweden’s indigenous Sámi population, who have long opposed the project. Beowulf has promised that 250 to 300 jobs will be created in the region. The Swedish government has not yet decided whether to grant the licence. [The Guardian][The Local][AP]

On February 5, Thunberg joined members of the Sámi community to protest against the mine. “A ‘no’ is ‘no’ and we need to respect that,” she said. Thunberg added: “Of course we need local jobs, but it cannot be at the expense of the climate, environment, indigenous rights.” [The Guardian] 

On February 10, Francisco Calí Tzay, UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and David R. Boyd, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment, released a joint statement urging Sweden not to grant the licence. One argument raised was that the potential environmental impacts of the project had not been given sufficient consideration. [OHCHR][DW] The statement criticised Sweden’s “failure to obtain the free, prior, and informed consent of the Sámi people.” On January 27, Sweden passed a national law requiring the government to consult with the Sámi people over matters that affect them. While this has not yet come into force, the UN experts called on Sweden to “construct future good-faith relations” with the Sámi people “based on recognition of their cultural heritage and traditional livelihoods.” [OHCHR] [DW]

The UN experts concluded that the mining project poses “significant and irreversible risks” to “Sámi lands, resources, culture and livelihoods,” including the disruption of reindeer herding. 

Meanwhile, Beowulf chief executive Kurt Budge has said that it is possible for “the future conditions for mining and reindeer husbandry to coexist.” [OHCHR] [Reuters][DW]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Central Europe

Croatia: Opposition urges femicide to be classed as criminal act

The head of the opposition Social Democrats faction in the Croatian parliament has called on the government to rethink and to class femicide, defined by some experts as gender-related killings of women, as a criminal act.

Faction leader Ivana Posavec Krivec said it was surprising that the government had rejected such a proposal by the Social Democrats. [Euractiv]

Rights activists urged the government to change Croatia’s penal code after a woman was killed by her former partner in front of shoppers at her workplace in a shop in the port city of Split late last year. [Balkan Insight]

From January to November 2021, 13 women were killed in Croatia, ten of them by their partners.[Euractiv]

A United Nations survey of 13 countries has found that half of women asked about their experiences reported they had suffered some form of violence since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic amid lockdowns that left many victims trapped with their persecutors. [EiR Monthly January 2021] 

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Czech Republic: Populist ex PM re-elected head of opposition ANO party

Populist former Prime Minister Andrej Babis was on February 12 re-elected chairman of the Czech Republic’s opposition ANO party, despite his defeat in parliamentary elections last year.

Babis was the only candidate for chairman and received 76 out of 95 votes. He did not confirm whether he planned to run in Czech presidential elections set to take place in 2023, but said that the centre-right ANO should field a candidate. [Euractiv]

Babis, a Eurosceptic billionaire who has spoken out against migrants, is a controversial figure who was found by a European Commission audit to have breached conflict of interest rules while in office. He denied wrongdoing. [Reuters] His narrow defeat in October parliamentary elections was seen by some observers as a sign that a populist wave in Central and Eastern Europe was receding amid growing unity among its opponents [The New York Times]

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Hungary: Move to keep media out of hospitals condemned as ‘shocking’

A Hungarian government decree came into force on February 5 which, despite a court order, allows the independent media to be banned from reporting inside hospitals amid the Covid pandemic.

A Budapest district court ruled on February 2 that the Ministry of Human Resources had unlawfully denied the press access to health facilities. [Euractiv]

A government decree that in effect overrules the court decision was condemned by the International Press Institute. Hungary is the only EU member state not to give media access to hospitals during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the press institute.

The institute’s deputy director, Scott Griffen, said: “It’s shocking that this is still up for debate in an EU member state.” He added that the government decree was a “stark example of the length which Fidesz will go to retain control over the Covid-19 messaging ahead of the upcoming elections.” [International Press Institute]

Hungarians go to the polls on April 3. The parliamentary election will see an alliance of recently united opposition groups attempting to oust the ruling right-wing Fidesz party along with long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has clashed with the European Union amid criticism that he has trampled basic freedoms and eroded democratic values. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

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Slovakia: Nuclear power plant owner warns new tax will cause bankruptcy

The owner of Slovakia’s two nuclear power plants has warned it will be forced to file for bankruptcy if its profits are hit by a government-approved bill submitted to parliament.

Slovenske elektrarne, which is a third owned by Slovakia’s economy ministry, said the new law would jeopardise the launch of the third and fourth units of the Mochovce plant in the west of the country. [Euractiv] [Reuters]

The economy ministry has said the “excessive profits” of nuclear power plants should be taxed in order to raise millions to compensate for a spike in energy prices.

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Slovenia: Right-wing PM Jansa hoping to retain power in April 24 election

Slovenia will hold parliamentary elections on April 24, with right-wing Prime Minister Janez Jansa hoping to hold on to power despite criticism at home and abroad that he has undermined democratic standards.

President Borut Pahor announced the election date amid simmering political tensions. Last year Pahor said he wanted the ballot held as soon as possible. [EiR Monthly December 2021]

Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party is ahead in the polls, with its support at around 24 percent, but backing for the centre-left and green-leaning Freedom Movement has climbed to 20 percent in recent months. [Politico]

Slovenia’s electoral rules and its fragmented political landscape mean that the party with the largest share of the vote will not necessarily be able to assemble a coalition commanding a majority in the 90-seat legislature. [Euractiv]

Smaller parties could play a decisive role by throwing their weight behind a coalition government, and the outcome of the election is hard to predict. [Politico]

Jansa, who has clashed with Brussels over media freedoms, last May survived an impeachment bid launched by the opposition, which claimed he was muzzling the press and failing to secure sufficient Covid-19 vaccines. [US News/AP]

Jansa has also been accused of undermining judicial independence and of eroding democratic standards in his country. [Guardian] Thousands took part in protests last year, urging the government to resign. 

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Southern Europe 

Italy: Court suspends ex-PM Conte as head of Five Star Movement

Italian former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has been suspended as the president of the Five Star Movement, the largest group in the country’s parliament, after a court found irregularities in elections last summer which saw him becoming the party’s leader.

The court in Naples said there had been “serious flaws in the decision-making process.” The ruling means the Five Star Movement has to repeat the vote to choose its chief. [Il Mattino]  

The leadership of the party has now been entrusted to Beppe Grillo, a comedian and the founder of the grouping, who said the court ruling “must be respected.”  [Il Sole 24 Ore]

Conte appeared confident and unworried about the court’s decision: “My leadership does not depend on stamped papers,” he declared. [Sky TG24] [RaiNews]

According to Italian news outlets, the court’s decision should be seen in the light of an internal conflict between the two main political currents of the Five Star Movement: one headed by Conte and another led by Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio. [Il Post] [La Repubblica] [Il Corriere della Sera]

Divisions within Italian political parties emerged clearly during multiple voting rounds in the country’s presidential election, which finally saw Sergio Mattarella re-elected for a second term on January 29. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

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Italy: Ex-PM Renzi accused of illegal party financing

The Italian Senate has decided that prosecutors who accused former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and some of his close collaborators of illegally financing the Democratic Party through his private Open foundation should be investigated themselves over the methods they used in a probe. The parliament voted in favour of the move, which was sought by Renzi, by a large majority on February 22 [Il Tempo]

Renzi, the former leader of the left-wing Democratic Party, said prosecutors should have asked for the permission of the Senate before accessing his private correspondence, including his WhatsApp messages. [Il Fatto Quotidiano] An investigation by prosecutors in Florence examined the operations of Renzi’s Open foundation in recent years involving parliamentarians, business executives and a former president of the foundation, who are accused of crimes including corruption, money laundering and influence peddling.  

A preliminary legal hearing will take place on April 4, when a judge will evaluate whether Renzi should face trial. [Politico]

Renzi, 47, claimed prosecutors and the press have created a hostile environment. “Nobody should violate the life of a person,” he said at the end of the parliamentary vote. “The Senate declared that the Florence prosecutors too must respect the law and the Constitution with an overwhelming majority.” [Il Tempo]

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Malta to hold parliamentary election on March 26

Malta will hold a parliamentary election on March 26, with the Labour Party, which has held power since 2013, seeking to fend off a challenge from the Nationalists, the country’s other main political grouping. The five-year term of the current government was set to end in June.

Prime Minister Robert Abela’s Labour Party took 55 percent of the vote in the last parliamentary ballot, held in 2017. [abc NEWS/AP]

Abela took over as premier in early 2020 following the resignation of Joseph Muscat, who quit amid criticism of the government's handling of the murder of investigative anti-corruption journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. [Politico] Her death in a 2017 car bombing sent shockwaves throughout Europe. [EiR Monthly February 2022]

The Nationalist Party is led by Bernard Grech, who took over in October 2020. 

The Labour Party has been well ahead over the last five years, according to opinion polls, which also found there was a considerable number of undecided voters.

The governing party has the economy on its side. The European Commission expects the country’s GDP to expand 6 percent this year, the strongest growth in the EU, of which Malta is a member. [abc NEWS]

Abela said: “We created strong systems that will prevail for generations.” [Times of Malta]

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Portugal: Man charged with terrorism as police say university attack foiled

Portuguese officials said on February 10 they had prevented a planned attack at a Lisbon university campus by an 18-year-old man. [Xinhua] [Reuters] [Euronews]

Police said the suspect, who was arrested on suspicion of terrorism offences, had targeted students of the faculty of sciences of Universidade de Lisboa, the country’s largest such educational institution. [Reuters] [Euronews]

The Portuguese Judiciary Police added that the suspect possessed prohibited weapons. [Xinhua]

News outlets reported that the suspect had been under observation and was suffering a mental disorder. [Euractiv]

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Portugal: Cyberattack hits millions, disrupts public services

A cyberattack against telecommunications company Vodafone on February 7 left millions of users in Portugal without internet, television or phone access. 

The attack hit businesses and public services, including ambulance services, fire departments and hospitals. Vodafone Portugal CEO Mario Vaz said emergency services were given priority in efforts to restore communications. [ABC News]

The company provides internet access to 3.4 million Portuguese homes and companies and has 4.7 million mobile customers, according to Vodafone. Portugal’s population is just over 10 million. [AA] Vodafone Portugal said there was no evidence that customer data had been accessed or compromised in the attack. [Euractiv]

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Portugal: Panel receives over 200 claims of sex abuse in Catholic Church

A commission investigating child sex abuse in the Portuguese Catholic Church said it has received allegations from over 200 people during its first month of work.

Many of those who shared their testimonies mentioned other children who might have been abused by the same person, the commission added. [Reuters]

Because most testimonies were received online, the commission has stepped up its efforts to reach people in less developed areas of Portugal who may not be familiar with using technology. [Al Jazeera]

The six-person investigating panel is primarily funded by the Roman Catholic Church, but its head, child psychiatrist Pedro Strecht, has said he would be the first to walk out if the Church tried to intervene in the process. [Reuters]

Portuguese church officials said two years ago that authorities had investigated only a dozen allegations of sexual abuse involving Portuguese priests since 2001. [Euro News]

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Spain: Regional election result forces People’s Party to rethink ahead of national vote

Spain’s conservative People’s Party has been forced to change its political strategy and consider possible alliances in the run-up to 2023 national parliamentary elections after it won a victory in Castilla y Leon elections but failed to secure a majority in the regional government.

The People’s Party (PP), Spain’s main opposition grouping, won 31 seats in the February 13 vote, three more than socialist party PSOE, which governs at the national level. [El Diario] [El País]

Meanwhile, the far-right Vox party obtained 13 seats, a result which prompted its leader, Santiago Abascal, to declare that Vox "has the right and duty" to be part of the local government coalition in the vast north-central Castilla y Leon region. [El Español]

In order to ensure the region is governable, the PP’s leader, Pablo Casado, has been forced to consider entering an alliance with Vox or PSOE.

However, Casado is worried that an alliance with Vox is not compatible with his moderate values, and that this would lead to negative effects on the national level, including defeat in the 2023 parliamentary elections. [El Periodico]

An alliance with PSOE appears even more difficult. Prime Minister and PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez said in the lower house of the Spanish parliament that PSOE would create an alliance with the PP to govern in Castilla y Leon only if the PP broke off any relations with Vox across the country. [El Mundo]

Vox champions anti-immigration and ultra-conservative policies. It is not part of any regional or national government alliance, but has provided external support to the People's Party in the regional governments of Madrid, Murcia and Andalusia.

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Spain: Scandal over alleged sex abuse of minors in Catholic Church

Sixty-eight criminal procedures are underway in Spanish courts involving alleged sexual abuse of minors within religious institutions, according to Dolores Delgado, the country’s attorney general. [El Diario] [El País]

A scandal erupted after the publication of an investigation by newspaper El Pais in December which revealed 251 alleged cases of sexual abuse in Spanish Catholic Church from 1943 to 2018. The paper delivered the results of its probe to Pope Francis and to the head of the Spanish Episcopal Conference, Cardinal Juan José Omella, who immediately opened an internal investigation. [El País]

Left-wing parties PSOE, Podemos, ERC and EH Bildu are working on the creation of a parliamentary committee to clarify what happened.  [Público]

Pressure from the media and government on the Spanish Catholic Church is high, prompting some top religious officials to announce they are in favour of a public investigation. [Levante]

Julián Barrio, the bishop of Santiago de Compostela, one of the most important dioceses in the country, recently declared that a government investigation into sexual abuse “is welcome by the Church, in a sign of ‘loyal collaboration’ with the State.” [El País]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Eastern Europe

Armenia: Security service arrests 19 people during crackdown on alleged spy ring

Armenia's National Security Service arrested 19 people as part of an alleged “espionage network” operating in the country that may have involved dozens of members of its armed forces across different units, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberation reported on February 10.

Recruitment took place via an online dating service through which Armenian servicemen who possessed classified data and documents would receive payments for sending the secret data to foreign intelligence services. It did not specify the nation that allegedly carried out the  espionage.  [Radio Free Europe]

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Belarus: Opposition leaders condemns plans to deploy Belarusian soldiers to Syria

Belarus’ main opposition challenger criticised the government’s decision to deploy up to 200 troops to Syria to serve alongside Russian forces, a development that the country’s authoritarian leader quickly denied.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who was forced to leave the country after Alexander Lukashenko won a re-election for a sixth term in August 2020, said the move violates the country's constitution and runs contrary to its national interests, adding that it was payback for Moscow's support for the Russian-backed leader. [AP] “Lukashenko is paying with Belarus' sovereignty for the support he received in 2020 that helped him stay in power,” Tsikhanouskaya  told the Associated Press.

A Russian government document released on February 7 detailed the Belarusian troop deployment to Syria, where President Vladimir Putin has been providing military support to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad since 2015. Mainly Sunni rebels came close to toppling Assad, who is a strategic ally of Russia in the Middle East. 

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the Belarusian troops will work to provide “humanitarian assistance” to the population outside combat zones. [AP] 

A day after details of the document were published, Lukashenko, who has increasingly relied on the Kremlin’s political and financial support amid bruising Western sanctions, said there were no plans to deploy combat troops to serve alongside their Russian counterparts in Syria. The country may send military medics on a voluntary basis with Russian support. [AP][SB News]

There was another fake story that ‘’the Russian Government had allegedly decided to virtually send our military to Syria,’’ Lukashenko said. ‘’The only thing that was discussed – it has been under discussion for a long time – is that the Syrian leader, the Syrian Government asked us to help with doctors.’’ [SB News]

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Georgia: PM sparks controversy after government leases publicly-owned land to wife

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili sparked controversy in the Caucasus nation after the government leased thousands of square metres of publicly-owned forest to his wife amid concerns that efforts to reduce corruption have stalled. 

Georgia’s National Agency of Public Registry transferred 5,958 square metres to Nunu Tamazashvili, Gharibashvili’s wife on December 28. Tamazashvili will pay $2,000 annually for the land as part of a 49-year lease agreement. The National Forestry Agency said on January 23 in a statement that an auction for the land announced in December was open to everyone and that the lease included a list of obligations for lease-holders. [OC Media]

Georgia ranked 45th on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. ‘’In a country once celebrated as a reformer, anti-corruption efforts have stagnated’’ Transparency International said. [Transparency International]

The country’s political system ‘’is characterised by an extremely high degree of concentration of power, as a single political group wields disproportionate control over all key public institutions,’’ Transparency International said. ‘’The same dominant group also often aspires to unduly influence non-state actors, including the media and the private sector.’’ [Transparency International]

Concern about the erosion of democracy in Georgia has increased under the leadership of Gharibashvili, who is a senior party member of Georgian Dream. US Ambassador to Georgia, Kelly Degnan, criticised the party’s possible backtracking on the EU-brokered constitutional amendments to lower the electoral threshold for parties from five to two percent and to make the next parliamentary elections proportional. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

 The land leased to  Gharibashvili’s wife is part of the State Forest Fund located in the lucrative Bakuriani Resort in the central Georgian municipality of Borjomi. The transfer was originally reported by TV channel Pirveli, which alleged that it was a New Year’s present for Gharibashvili’s wife. [OC Media]

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Moldova: LGBT rights debate sparked when gay military recruit came out  

A gay military recruit sparked a debate about homosexual rights when he came out in a country where LGBT people continue to face discrimination from authorities, wider society and their own families despite it being legal, the Institure for War and Peace Reporting reported on February 7. [IWPR]

A conversation between enlisted army conscript Marin Pavlescu and his boyfriend was recorded without his knowledge then shared with officers and soldiers. "Hate messages started flooding my phone,’’ Pavlescu told IWPR. ‘’I received calls from unknown numbers, strangers who were telling me what they thought I was - a coward, at best... I feel bad, I have trouble sleeping.” 

He initially filed for leave to take care of his ailing mother to delay his return to the military. On November 10, 2021, he came out publicly, denounced the harassment and announced he would not return to his brigade, which could result in a $2,645 fine or up to five years in prison. [IWPR]

In 2021, advocacy group ILGA-Europe ranked Moldova 38th out of 49 European countries for its respect for LGBT rights. Their rights are often violated by police and politicians who use hate speech against them or fail to protect them from physical assault. [ILGA]

“People in the community often ask for our help when their parents beat them, harass them, force them to go into psychiatric care, kick them out of the house, deprive them of their phone or contact with friends and the world around them,’’ said Angelica Frolov, coordinator at Genderdoc-M Center, the country’s only LGBT-support organisation, which also provided Pavlescu with legal and psychological assistance.  [IWPR]

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Constitutional Law and Politics in Southeastern Europe

Albania: Parliament approves constitutional amendment to vet judges 

Albania’s parliament approved on February 10 a constitutional amendment that will continue to allow vetting of the judiciary, a decision that Western nations applauded as the post-communist country struggles to crack down on corruption and advance towards European Union membership.

Lawmakers voted 118-0 in favour of a two-year extension, which was set to end in July, while a small number of opposition lawmakers in the 140-seat house boycotted the vote and four abstained. The vote allows the vetting process to continue for 300 remaining judges and prosecutors. [AP]

The EU, the US and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe welcomed the decision. The 27-nation bloc’s ambassador to Albania, Luigi Soreca, tweeted that the vote was ``for the future of Albania in the EU.’’  [AP]Two days ahead of the parliamentary decision, the US embassy in Tirana and the EU Delegation issued a joint press statement saying that the vetting of judges and prosecutors is a ‘’fundamental element” of justice reform. [Balkan Insights] “In order to allow the vetting institutions to complete their mission, it is necessary to amend the constitution to extend their mandate for a limited period. The Venice Commission has confirmed that the proposed extension is in line with European standards, and is necessary to ensure equality in law and legal certainty,” they said in the statement.[Balkan Insights]

Judicial corruption is still a significant problem in Albanian, where the government’s inability to stamp it out is having an impact on its democratic development. Albania’s Corruption Perception score dropped by one point, ranking it 110th out of 180 countries globally in 2021, according to the latest report published by Transparency International. [EuronewsAlbania]

Albania's parliament started considering judicial reform in 2016 with direct assistance from Brussels and Washington in an effort to ensure that judges and prosecutors are independent of politics. Out of almost 500 — from a total of 800 — judges and prosecutors vetted so far, only 183 have been approved while another 297 were fired, the Associated Press reported. [AP]

The International Monitoring Operation was set up to oversee the vetting process of judiciary members. As part of the reform, specific provisions for the re-evaluation of judges, prosecutors and current legal advisors and assistants were put in place which addressed three key concerns: integrity, ethical training and professional skills

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Albania: Former interior minister jailed for aiding drug trafficking

Albania’s Former Interior Minister Saimir Tahiri was sentenced to more than three years in prison for abuse of office due to his connection to a criminal drug network, as the post-communisty country continues its fight against corruption. [AP]

Tahiri facilitated drug trafficking for a criminal group through his ``inaction’’ and acceptance of gifts from the network during his time in office, the judge presiding over the case said. He was transferred to prison on February 4 for his three year and four months sentence and has 45 days to appeal the ruling. [Euractiv] [AP] Tahiri had benefited from ‘’unfair services and gain and at the same time, with his abuse of post, he has abused legal interests,’’ Judge Engert Pellumbi of the Special Appeals Court for Corruption and Organised Crime said. Prosecutors proved their case with documented evidence, the judge said [AP]

Albania has started to become a gateway for heroin and cocaine smuggling into Europe, rather than just being a crossroad for marijuana. Albanian gangs transport heroin and cocaine to Western Europe in specially converted cas, and operate across the continent. [AP] [EU-OCS] 

Police arrested Tahiri in 2017 on drug trafficking charges. At the time, prosecutors wanted to sentence him to 12 years in prison on charges of international drug trafficking, participation in a structured criminal organisation, and criminal activity under a structured criminal organisation, Euractiv reported.  He was sentenced in September 2019 to three years of probation for abuse of office and was acquitted of the charges. Last year, the Supreme Court ordered a retrial because of irregular procedures taken by judges and prosecutors. [Euractiv] [AP] ‘’I have not violated the law,” Tahiri said on Facebook. “I am happy I have committed my job in the best possible way. It is simply injustice.” His lawyer, Maksim Haxhiaj, said they would appeal the decision. 

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Albania: Police evict tenants 

Albanian police used force on February 9 to evict residents in a neighbourhood in Tirana protesting plans by the municipality to demolish 400 buildings in the area. [Euractiv]  

The police detained a number of residents who shuttered themselves in their homes when the demolition started in the area known as 5 Maji. They claim the government has failed to give them fair compensation for the demolition of their homes. [Euractiv]  

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Albania: Environmental activists criticise government’s decision to alter map of Protected Areas

Environmental activists have criticised the Albanian government’s decision to alter the map of Protected Areas after the Ministry of Tourism and Environment announced changes that would give some areas a new status, Balkan Insight reported on February 7. [Balkan Insight]

The environmentalists think the government is changing the map of Protected Areas to open coastal and wetland areas to development.  [Balkan Insight]  The Vjosa river would be declared a “Natural Park,” the ministry said. 

International scientists and environmentalists are watching developments on the Vjosa because of the threat of dams being constructed on it.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina: Credit rating could be jeopardised by rising political tensions

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s credit rating could be jeopardised by rising political tensions in the country after the Republika Srpska announced that it was preparing to withdraw from several state-level institutions, Standard & Poor’s said. [Euractiv]

The ratings agency affirmed the country’s B credit rating with a positive outlook. The rating means that a country’s credit situation is speculative with high credit risk, and it is just one step above the worst rating of C.  [Euractiv]

‘’We expect the confrontation will ultimately de-escalate, with political structures remaining largely unchanged in BiH, but a near-term resolution appears unlikely,’’ it said. ‘’We consider that persisting uncertainty could negatively affect growth, which we forecast will slow to 2.7 percent in 2022 from an estimated 6.7 percent in 2021.”[Euractiv]

Tensions have escalated in Bosnia and Herzegovina after Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, said that Republika Srpska is “our state” and “will one day be an independent state and will have its own federal or confederate status with Serbia.” The republic’s president Zeljka Cvijanovic said that Bosnia-Herzegovina is “a failure and detrimental to all of us.” [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

The EU warned that it could use a “wide toolbox” of measures, including sanctions and the withdrawal of assistance, against the Serb-dominated entity of Bosnia-Herzegovina after its leaders used language to celebrate a holiday that the bloc said was “negative, divisive and inflammatory rhetoric.” The US sanctioned Dodik earlier in January. Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022

The tension also comes as the country faces deeper economic problems. 

Citizens are increasingly indebted for consumption. Out of a total of $4 billion in debt, as much as 75 percent refers to loans for general consumption. Almost every adult citizen owes more than three $1,740 to commercial banks. Sarajevo Times

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Bulgaria: Government requests dismissal of chief prosecutor considered an obstacle to judicial reform

The Bulgarian government is moving ahead with plans to remove the country’s chief prosecutor as part of broader judicial reform and the implementation of anti-corruption measures. 

Justice Minister Nadezhda Yordanova said on February 8 that she will seek the dismissal of chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev from his position as ‘’one of the important measures’’ for changing the judiciary, adding that the decision was made based on "an analysis of the actions and inaction.’’  

The Supreme Administrative Court has approved the request for Geshev’s dismissal and sent an official letter to the Supreme Judicial Council for his dismissal.  For it to be approved, Yordanova must provide concrete evidence that Geshev undermined the judiciary. [RadioFreeEurope] [BalkanInsight] [DarikNews].

The Supreme Judicial Council initially ruled against the request to dismiss Geshev, which was filed in July, as part of the government’s efforts to stamp out corruption. Prime Minister Kiril Petkov has pledged zero tolerance for corruption and plans to overhaul the agency as a first step to end a climate of impunity in the country. [DarikNews] [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Bulgaria is ranked as the most corrupt European Union member state by anti-graft group Transparency International, according to Reuters. Efforts to attract more foreign investment and join the EU’s Schengen free-travel zone have been hurt by corruption in the country. [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Geshev is allegedly on a list of public officials considered corrupt by Petkov. Other officials on the list include former PM and leader of the pro-European centrist party GERB, Boyko Borisov, and the member of the centrist party DPS, Delyan Peevski, who was also sanctioned by the US’s Magnitsky act. [RadioFreeEurope].

In 2019, President Rumen Radev blocked the election of Geshev, though he was later appointed to the position.[BalkanInsight] [DeutscheWelle].

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Bulgaria: Credit Suisse faces drug trafficking, money laundering charges for link to unsavoury gang

Credit Suisse Group is facing criminal charges for money laundering and drug trafficking after conducting financial transactions for a Bulgarian drug gang. The Swiss bank has denied the allegations. 

The bank allegedly laundered 70 million Swiss francs for a cocaine trafficking group with links to Evelin Banev, a Bulgarian real estate developer, convicted criminal and former wrestler who is wanted in three European countries. According to the Swiss federal prosecution investigation, Banev is responsible for importing tons of cocaine into Europe from South America. [RadioFreeEurope] [Reuters] [Nova]

A former Credit Suisse employee, who came forward with the information, said the bank conducted the transactions despite knowing they were drug-related transactions. The bank is also being tried for accepting around 55 million Swiss francs from the Bulgarian crime group, including several real estate deals in the name of Banev and one other Bulgarian in the trial. [RadioFreeEurope] [Reuters] [Nova]

Interpol has been tracking Banev for the past six years, as he is a wanted criminal in Italy, Romania and Bulgaria. He was sentenced to 36 years in jail for drug trafficking and money laundering charges. [RadioFreeEurope].

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Bulgaria: Government will remove Covid-19 green pass system by end of March

Bulgaria will end the Covid-19 green pass system on March 20, though the country’s health minister denied the decision was due to protests against government-enforced social restrictions despite government assertions that it would maintain them. 

Lower infection rates and vaccination campaigns have contributed to the decision by the government. Health Minister Asena Serbezova said it was taken because of better results fighting the virus, denying that decision was in response to protests led by the opposition party Revival in January.  [RadioFreeEurope] [DarikNews].  

Protests against Covid-19 restrictions turned violent in January when demonstrators briefly clashed with police outside the parliament building in Sofia, as the number of infections from the virus increased. About 3,000 people took to the capital’s streets on January 12 to oppose the government’s implementation of a mandatory health pass. They said it trampled on their rights and was a back-door way of forcing people to get vaccinated. Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

After the protests, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, who took office in December and pledged to spur vaccinations in the country, said that the certificate system and other preventive measures would remain. 

Bulgaria, the least vaccinated member of the EU, recorded its highest number of Covid-19 cases on the day of the protest. Currently, 30 percent of the population has been vaccinated, though Serbezova said the rate is higher. [RadioFreeEurope] [DarikNews]. 

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Greece: Prime Minister sacks agriculture minister for laughing about 2007 deadly wildfires 

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sacked in February Agriculture Minister Spilios Livanos after a video showed him laughing about the deadly wildfires in 2007 that killed 84 people. 

The video showed him sitting with the mayor of Sparta, who said that the New Democracy party was “distributing money in bags” in 2007 after his region faced deadly wildfires. The distribution of money to residents was a ‘’game changer” for the electoral results of the conservative party in the elections that followed, the mayor said. [Euractiv]

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Greece: Fitch division to revise Greece’s rating to positive was due to strong economic growth

Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise Greece’s rating to positive was due to strong economic growth and a narrowing fiscal deficit that supports a faster-than-expected fall in public-sector debt amid rising but still historically low borrowing costs, it said in a statement on February 14. [Fitch]

‘’We previously highlighted that gross financing needs (GFN) for the Greek sovereign will peak in 2023 and stay below 15 percent of GDP,’’ Fitch said. ‘’Our revised projections now point to lower GFNs in the next four years. This revision also reflects repayments of outstanding IMF loans and prepayments of 2022 and 2023 instalments of the Greek Loan Facility, amounting to 3.8 percent of forecast GDP.’’[Fitch]

Public debt rose sharply due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but mitigating factors support public debt sustainability, Fitch said. Greece’s liquid asset buffer is substantial, it said.

Fitch estimated in January that the Greek economy grew 8.3 percent in 2021, much faster than the 4.3 percent forecast in its previous rating review last July. The ongoing pandemic, being fuelled by virus variants, hurt growth in the last quarter.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

The country is still suffering from the fall out of the Covid-19.

Greece had to extend financial relief into January to help households and businesses deal with surging energy prices, after demonstrations erupted late last year against government-imposed Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. Like much of Europe, Greece is getting slammed by higher energy prices.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Greek farmers demanded in February subsidies to reduce their fuel costs and an end to the electricity price adjustment cost, which reflects changes in the price of oil and natural gas imports. Greece has among the highest taxes on fuel in the 27-nation European Union, accounting for about two-thirds of the price.

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Greece: Government moves to impose new measures to combat sport-related violence

Greece has pledged to tighten rules to combat violence at sporting events after a 19-year-old soccer fan was murdered in an attack by rival supporters. [Ekathimerini][GreekCityTimes] 

Government spokesman Giannis Oikonomou said the government will submit a bill to parliament to reform penalties for acts of violence at sporting events. Oikonomou made the statement after Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis chaired a meeting on sports violence. [Ekathimerini]

Later in February, a series of provisions creating a stricter legal framework for dealing with  fan violence were presented by Justice Minister Kostas Tsiaras, Civil Protection Minister Takis Theodorikakos, Deputy Minister of Sports Lefteris Avgenakis, and government spokesperson Yiannis Economou. [GreekCityTimes] 

Sentences for violent crimes will be increased from six months to five years and in cases involving dangerous perpetrators, a sentence between two and five years will be imposed, according to the provisions. A special criminal offence is being introduced for those who cover their facial features during matches, with a prison sentence of at least six months. [GreekCityTimes] 

The government also said it would shut all soccer supporters’ clubs until the end of August as part of its crackdown following the death of Alkis Kambanos in the Greek city of Thessaloniki. The February 1 murder of 19-year-old shocked the city and fans nationwide in a country that has laboured to tame sport-related violence and corruption for years.[Ekathimerini][GreekCityTimes] At least  12 people have been charged in connection with the attack on Kambanos, who was beaten and stabbed to death outside the Aris Thessaloniki club’s stadium..[Ekathimerini][GreekCityTimes] 

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Serbia: President Vucic dissolves parliament, sets early elections for April 3

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic dissolved the country’s parliament on 16 February and called for early presidential, parliamentary and local  elections for April 3. [Reuters]

Vucic is currently leading in the polls and is expected to win his second term as president after being sworn into office in 2017. In the parliamentary elections, Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party is expected to win with their coalition partners, including the Socialist Party of Serbia. [Euractiv]

‘’I’m sure the people of Serbia will know how to choose the best,” Vucic said in a speech to parliament. He called on Serbians “to take part in the election and show the country’s democratic capacities.”

The early elections will be held a year and a half after a new government was formed in October 2020. During a vote in parliament, Ana Brnabic was reappointed prime minister.

Major opposition parties boycotted the parliamentary vote, citing Vucic’s control of the media and his pressure on political opponents. . The opposition parties will field both presidential and parliamentary candidates on 3 April despite claiming the elections are rigged. [Reuters]

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Turkey: Media watchdog requires three Western news agencies to apply for media licences

Turkey’s media watchdog, RTUK, has demanded that three Western news websites apply for online broadcasting licences or face being banned in the country, a move that is viewed internationally as a government effort to impose restrictions on foreign media in the country. [DPA]

US broadcaster Voice of America, France-based Euronews and Germany’s Deutsche Welle broadcaster, who now all need to obtain licences to be able to continue streaming online on-demand and video services, were impacted by the decision.  Deutsche Welle and Voice of America said they will not apply for licences as requested by RTUK, a decision that could lead to their websites being blocked. [DPA][Reuters]

On February 21, the RTUK media watchdog, which is responsible for inspecting television and radio broadcasts, gave them 72 hours to apply for an online broadcasting licence. RTUK, whose policy-making board is dominated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AK party and its allies, frequently fines broadcasters critical of the government for their coverage.  [Reuters]

Peter Limbourg, director general of Deutsche Welle, said the move was an attempt to restrict international media, adding that the company will apply to Turkish courts regarding the decision. [Reuters]

This “gives Turkish authorities the option to block the entire service based on individual, critical reports unless these reports are deleted. This would open up the possibility of censorship,’’ he said. [Reuters]

In recent years, physical and legal attacks on journalists have increased in Turkey.

In 2021 alone, 241 journalists faced trials on charges that included insulting the president or terrorism, 28 of whom were convicted. In February, Gungor Arslan, the owner and managing editor of the local Ses Kocaeli newspaper, was murdered. [IPI] Media Freedom Rapid Response (MFRR) partners, including IPI, called for swift and thorough investigation into Arslan’s murder. [IPI]

Turkey ranked 103rd among 167 countries in 2021 in the Democracy Index. Turkey was in last place in the Western Europe region, where 21 countries were evaluated. In the evaluation made by the UK-based research and analysis company Economist Intelligence Unit, Norway took the first place, while Afghanistan, where the Taliban took control in August, took the last place.[Euronews]

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Turkey: Workers strike to demand higher wages as inflation cuts into salaries

Turkish workers are striking across the country to demand more money to counter rising inflation in a wave of protests not seen since the 1970s. [AFP]

The country has had more than 60 strikes, factory occupations, protests and boycott calls involving at least 13,500 workers in less than two months, according to the independent Labour Studies Group. Motorcycle couriers for the food delivery company Yemeksepeti Banabi and Migros supermarket warehouse workers have walked off their jobs.[AFP][Financial Times]

More than 250 supermarket warehouse workers at Mirgos are demanding an extra 30 US cents per hour, the equivalent of a loaf of bread. After the workers at the Migros supermarket chain went on strike, they won back their jobs as well as salary rises and other demands, giving inspiration to dissatisfied employees across the country. [AFP]

Turkey's annual inflation rate officially reached 48.7 percent in January, and workers have struggled to keep up with the sky-rocketing cost of living.  Electricity prices rose between 50 and 125 per cent in January as the plunge in the value of the currency combined with soaring global energy prices to produce eye-watering increases in the cost of power.[AFP][Financial Times]

Higher inflation is having political ramifications. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for close to two decades, must hold elections before June 2023 but faces growing public anger over the cost of energy, food and other basic needs.[Financial Times]

Erdogan, who has replaced three central bank governors in the past two years, supports an unorthodox theory that higher interest rates cause higher inflation. He thinks a monetary policy of easing rates will boost exports, investment and jobs, despite concerns from economists that Turkey may face a huge crisis if interest rates continue to drop.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

Erdogan pledged in early January to ease consumer prices. He said that inflation was not in line with economic realities in Turkey, adding that he hoped to see the benefits of Ankara’s economic policy in the summer. He has repeatedly blamed the country’s financial situation on foreign financial tools.  [Europe Monthly No. 2, February 2022]

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Turkey: Government announces new economic package as soaring inflation hits country

Turkey announced a new economic package in February as higher costs of living hit household income and aggravated poverty amid rising prices across most consumer goods. [Reuters]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that that value-added tax would be reduced to 1 percent from 8 percent on food supplies. The government also ‘‘expects’’ food companies to bring down their prices by 7 percent. The government also announced on 16 February subsidies for natural gas and electricity that will be distributed to 4 million households twice a year. [Daily Sabah] [Hurriyet Daily News]

The government is encouraging Turkish citizens to put their gold holdings into the financial system as part of Ankara’s efforts to curtail inflation. It also wants to increase exports with low interest rates and inject capital into state lenders. [Hurriyet Daily News] [Reuters]

Turkey's annual inflation rate officially reached 48.7 percent in January, and workers have struggled to keep up with the sky-rocketing cost of living. Electricity prices rose between 50 and 125 per cent in January as the plunge in the value of the currency combined with soaring global energy prices to produce eye-watering increases in the cost of power.[AFP][Financial Times]

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power due to widespread public anger over the state of the country’s economy and declining living standards. They delivered significant economic growth for more than a decade, though the economy has lost its momentum in recent years due to a recession and then the impact of the pandemic. [Bloomberg] 

As the inflation reached its highest level in two decades, challenges might be significant for the president regarding the upcoming election which is scheduled to be held in mid-2023. [Reuters] [Bloomberg]

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Turkey: Fitch Downgrades Turkey’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to 'B+'

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Turkey's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) to 'B+' from 'BB-' with a negative outlook. [Fitch]

“Policy-driven financial stress episodes of higher frequency and intensity have increased Turkey's vulnerabilities in terms of high inflation, low external liquidity and weak policy credibility,’’ Fitch said on February 11. “Fitch does not expect the authorities' policy response to reduce inflation, including FX-protected deposits, targeted credit and capital flow measures, will sustainably ease macroeconomic and financial stability risks.”  [Fitch]

Turkey's expansionary policy mix, including deeply negative real rates, “could entrench inflation at high levels, increase the exposure of public finances to exchange rate depreciation and inflation, and eventually weigh on domestic confidence and reignite pressures on international reserves,’’ it said.  [Fitch]

“The risk of additional destabilising monetary policy easing or stimulus policies ahead of the 2023 general elections is high, and there is an elevated degree of uncertainty about the authorities' policy reaction function in the event of another episode of financial stress, as political considerations limit the central bank's ability to raise its policy rate,’’  Fitch said.  [Fitch]

Authorities expect that the introduction of FX-protected deposits combined with a broader strategy to encourage 'liraisation' of the financial system will support exchange rate stability and in turn facilitate a reduction in inflationary pressures.  [Fitch]

“In Fitch's view, the new instrument's capacity to sustainably improve confidence is limited in an environment of high and rising inflation, as well as unanchored expectations,’’ the rating’s agency said. “Moreover, if the instrument fails to reduce domestic demand for FX, preserving a stable exchange rate without the use of interest rates would require renewed FX intervention or additional capital flow measures. This policy response could in turn have a negative effect on domestic confidence.’’  [Fitch]

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Turkey: Opposition leaders agreed to restore Turkey’s parliamentary system in bid to curtail Erdogan

The leaders of six opposition parties in Turkey held a meeting on 12 February to discuss their plans to return the country to a parliamentary system in a bid to curtail the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

The leaders said in a statement released after the meeting that they would "strengthen the parliamentary system" if they won the next elections, adding that the presidential system was causing ‘’the deepest political and economic crisis” of its history [Euronews] [Sozcu]

The leaders who attended the meeting were Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Meral Aksener from Good Party (IYI Parti), Temel Karamollaoglu from Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi), Gultekin Uysal from Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti), Ali Babacan from Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) and Ahmet Davutoglu from Future Party (Gelecek Partisi).

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is the second-largest opposition party, did not attend the meeting. The party has supported the alliance, especially in the country’s 2019 local election, though the party has not been part of a formal coalition.  [Al-Monitor] The Republican People’s Party, Good Party, Felicity Party and Democrat Party are also part of the Nation Alliance (Millet Ittifakı) which was formed during Turkey’s 2018 general election. Babacan and Davutoglu, who had held higher positions in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), but formed their own parties after resigning from the ruling party, support restoring the country to a parliamentary system. [Euronews] [Hurriyet Daily News]

After a referendum in 2017, the country dropped its parliamentary system when Erdogan won the presidential election. Though the position of president had been mostly ceremonial before, the new system has enabled the president to rule by presidential decree while extensively increasing his power. [Al-Monitor] [Euronews]

The next parliamentary and presidential elections are expected to be held in June 2023 in Turkey.

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Eric Kliszcz (ek), Glen Carey (gc), Harry McNeil (hm), Harry Taunton (ht), Henning Glaser (hg), Imogen Groves (ig), Ivandzhelin Bozadzhieva (ib), Kendall Ashlee (ka), Marlene Busch (mb), Mustafa Hussain (mh), Nicholas Warren (nw), Peter Kononczuk (pk), Quentin Vidberg (qv), Robert Nielsen (rn), Sarah Donald (sdo), Venus Phuangkom, Vincenzo Bardo (vb), Florien van Weerelt (fvw), Warren Ó Broin (wb), Yara Pstrong (yp)

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