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The Intelligent Investor

"Investors Are Becoming More Paranoid"

Good afternoon.

What's up?

This year, not much — except volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, often called Wall Street's "fear gauge," is up almost 70% so far in 2022, and gold — that ancient measure of flight to safety — is up about 4%.

U.S. stocks are off roughly 9% so far this year, and bitcoin is down about 20%.

It's shaping up to be a period when everyone will be looking for someone to blame.

Theatrical poster (ca. 1895), Library of Congress

 

As I wrote in last weekend's column, Stock Market Got You Worried? Write a D-Day Note, it used to be easy to point your finger at your stockbroker or fund manager when you lost money. Nowadays, you are more likely to be the culprit yourself — making some people more eager than ever to find somebody else, anybody else, to blame.

Looking through recent annual reports from mutual funds gathered by MyLogIQ, a financial data firm, I wasn’t surprised to see portfolio managers using phrases like “unwarranted heights” and “dissociated from reality” to describe the stock market they can't seem to outperform. 

The more an investment disappoints you, the more desperate your attempt to blame somebody else may become. As GameStop Corp.'s price has collapsed, conspiracy theories have proliferated:

MarketPsych LLC

This chart plots GameStop's stock price (orange) against how frequently (in blue) such terms as cheat, criminal, crooked, evil, unethical, wicked or wrong are associated with the stock on social media and online news sites.

"Investors are becoming more paranoid" as the stock falls, says Richard Peterson, chief executive of MarketPsych, a Singapore-based analytics firm that charted the data for me. "When people are presented with evidence that they made a mistake," he says, "they will blame exogenous forces instead."

To counter that, write yourself a D-Day note, as Gen. Dwight Eisenhower did with his "In Case of Failure" memo on the eve of the historic invasion in 1944.

I explained it this way:

Before you make a big trade, consider writing a note like this: “My investment has been a failure, and I am selling. I based the decision on information I believed to be valid, but I was wrong because [blank]. It was a bad investment, but that doesn’t make me a bad investor.”

That won’t stop you from making the trade. But if your great idea turns out to be a mistake, your D-Day note will prompt you to fill in that blank—and make it easier to admit that you were wrong without feeling foolish or incompetent.

 

The Seven Virtues of Great Investors

In previous issues, we've talked about the virtues of curiosity, skepticism, discipline and independence.

Whatever you do, don't let yourself feel proud of having those virtues, or the next one will slip from your grasp.

The next virtue of great investors is humility: that paradoxical blessing that you can possess if, and only if, you believe to the marrow of your bones you do not possess it. The harder you work at achieving and retaining humility, the more you will need to remind yourself that you still don't have it, lest you puff up with pride at being humble.

Even if you slay the lion, you must not roar.

Elizabeth Jane Gardner Bouguereau, "The Shepherd David" (ca. 1895), National Museum of Women in the Arts

 

 

As Benjamin Franklin wrote in his Autobiography:

In reality there is perhaps no one of our natural Passions so hard to subdue as Pride. Disguise it, struggle with it, beat it down, stifle it, mortify it as much as one pleases, it is still alive, and will every now and then peep out and show itself.... For even if I could conceive that I had compleatly overcome it, I should probably be proud of my Humility.

I've come to believe that a declaration of humility is one of the surest signs of arrogance.

Over the years I've met many professional investors who talked incessantly about how humble they were, or how the market kept them humble.

None of them, so far as I can tell, are still in the business.

If humility always seems to escape those who try to reach it, how should we think about approaching it?

Three ideas that might help.

👉 One, exemplified by reader J. Robert Ross, is evaluating yourself without illusions:
     I'm not all that smart. I'm not a great investor. My return for the past three years barely kept pace with the market. Obviously, I am a boring, average-to-below-average, mediocre investor. Why wouldn't I be humble?

I have little doubt that Mr. Ross's "boring" portfolio and his conviction that he is "mediocre" will keep him from taking excessive risks and overreacting when markets go haywire. He will end up with bragging rights over people who thought of themselves as much smarter, but he doesn't sound like a guy who would even take pride in that.

👉 Two, the more you learn, the more you should realize how little you know. Instead of patting yourself on the back for how much you have come to understand, you should kick yourself over how much you still have left to learn.

At age 85, the economist, portfolio manager and financial historian Peter Bernstein told me:
     After 50 years in the investment business I still haven’t got it all clear. And that’s okay, because I understand that I haven’t got it figured out. In a hundred years, I won’t have it all figured out.

Again and again until he died at age 90, Bernstein questioned his own beliefs, repeatedly tackling the same topic and drawing different conclusions — and taking on new topics from scratch. Constantly asking questions kept him from thinking he'd ever found — or ever would find — all the answers.

👉 Three, your luck is bigger than you are.

In 2003, I asked Warren Buffett whether he thought of himself as a genius. He didn't blush and say, "Aw, shucks," or bluster and say, "No, of course not." Instead he said simply that he thought of himself as having been given, at birth, a winning ticket in what he calls "the ovarian lottery." Had he been born in a different time or place — not in Omaha in 1930, but rather Omaha in 1830, or Ouagadougou in 1930 — he never would have been able to put his skills to as much advantage.

I'm pretty sure Mr. Buffett is aware that he is smarter than most other investors. I'm also pretty sure he keeps that awareness from poisoning his judgment by reminding himself that his success is a fluke of time and place.

Most people think humility is about managing what others think of you, which would be easy. Instead, it's about being honest with yourself, which is hard.

How do you try to keep yourself humble as an investor?

Garuda (ca. 1150), National Museum of Asian Art

The WSJ Tax Guide 2022: What to Know Now about Tax Filing and Refunds

Get ready for a wild tax season.

The Wall Street Journal has prepared its fifth edition of the WSJ Tax Guide, which provides an overview of key income-tax provisions for individuals and tracks relevant changes for each year. It's written by by WSJ tax reporters Laura Saunders and Richard Rubin and is available to subscribers here.

Money Mailbag

Mary Cassatt, "The Letter" (ca. 1890), Art Institute of Chicago

Have a question you'd like me to answer?

Want to weigh in on what you just read? Got a tip on something that I or my colleagues should investigate? Itching to tell me I'm wrong about something?

Just reply to this email and I'll see your note. Don't forget to include your name and city.

 

 

Q:

I am a Boglehead-type investor. I am sure you are familiar with the group, those who follow the simple indexed style approach to investing. I am curious if you would categorize them as following the herd? 

— Jordan Bergman, Ames, Iowa

A:

I see what you did there, Jordan. You sent me this right after, in the last issue of this newsletter, I said independence is one of the seven virtues of great investors. And how could the Bogleheads — people who own index funds, which just copy whatever the market is doing — possibly be thinking and acting independently? 

Well, how much independence does it take to buy and hold a few index funds and do little if nothing else when everybody else is chasing the hot returns of whatever just went up the most?

A lot.

How much independence does it take to stick with a simple — and boring! — plan when Wall Street's propaganda machine pumps out complex and exciting-sounding products every day?

A lot.

How much independence does it take to listen to Wally the plumber and Lucy the dentist bragging about their brilliant trades when you don't make any?

A lot.

So, yes, I think you can follow the philosophy of John Bogle, the late founder of Vanguard Group, without being a mindless member of the herd. In fact, if you're thoughtful about it, that could make you less likely, not more, to follow the crowd.

Be well and invest well,

Jason

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Trust Your Decisions

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"Diogenes," Jean-Léon Gérôme (1860), The Walters Art Museum

 

Last Word

No man can achieve the greatness of which he is capable until he has allowed himself to see his own littleness.
—Bertrand Russell

 

 
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