Good morning. This is Jeff Sparshott with the latest on the economy. You can send questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The world is eager for clues about the health of China’s economy as the country endures its worst prolonged slowdown in years. But getting a clear picture has only grown more difficult, as data becomes harder to obtain and unflattering analysis vanishes. On Monday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics abruptly canceled the release of quarterly gross domestic product data just hours before it was set to be published, without providing a reason or setting a new date. Days earlier, the country’s customs agency simply didn’t release monthly official trade data, offering no explanation. The moves were only the most glaring examples of what many investors and scholars say reflects increasing sensitivities around economic data and commentary that have made analysis of the world’s second-largest economy more difficult, Stella Yifan Xie reports.

🎧 WSJ podcast: A decade ago, President Xi Jinping set out his “China Dream" and promised it would boost the economy. But as WSJ’s Lingling Wei explains, Xi’s state-centered approach isn’t delivering on that vision. (Listen)

One alternative source of data: satellite images. Real Time Economics contacted New York-based SpaceKnow, which monitors and analyzes thousands of locations around the world to capture activity at warehouses, factories, shopping centers, refineries and other economic hubs. Recent data from China doesn't look great. Auto production, for example, rebounded at the start of the year, but based on a measure of finished vehicles in factory lots, it has since tailed off. Cement production typically surges around the third quarter of the year but the latest figures aren’t enough to mask weakening construction activity. The number of parked cars at shopping malls suggests retail activity is below prepandemic norms.

U.S. housing starts are expected to fall to an annual pace of 1.47 million in September from 1.575 million one month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Federal Reserve releases its beige book report at 2 p.m. ET.

Fed speakers: Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari on the economic outlook at 1 p.m. ET (livestream), Chicago's Charles Evans on the economic outlook at 6:30 p.m. ET, and St. Louis's James Bullard gives opening remarks at a St. Louis Fed event at 6:30 p.m. ET.

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Construction of prefabricated homes is ramping up and providing an alternative to traditional multifamily, where the construction process has slowed because of rising costs and supply-chain delays. Prefabricated construction, which includes modular, manufactured and mobile homes, has for years been used in lower-budget housing development. But with rising interest rates and higher prices for materials such as lumber, the process is starting to get more of a toehold in the mainstream apartment market, Rebecca Picciotto reports.

• Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian (Read)

Single-family home construction, meanwhile, appears to be winding down. The National Association of Home Builders monthly confidence index fell for the tenth month in a row in October, the longest stretch of consecutive declines in records tracing back to 1985. During the housing crisis in 2006-07, the index on two separate occasions fell for 8 months straight. The overall index now stands at 38. Outside of the early pandemic months, that is the lowest level since 2012. The NAHB said rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and elevated home prices were crushing demand for new homes.

The IRS is raising tax brackets and standard deductions by 7% because of high inflation. The 37% top marginal tax rate will apply to individual income above $578,125 and married couples’ income above $693,750 next year, the Internal Revenue Service said on Tuesday. The standard deduction will climb to $27,700 for married couples and $13,850 for individuals, letting taxpayers shield more of their earnings from income taxes. Because inflation is higher than at any time in the past four decades, tax code adjustments are unusually high as well, Richard Rubin reports.

• IRS Raises Estate-Tax Threshold to $12.92 Million for 2023 (Read)

Inflation watch: gasoline. The Biden administration is planning to sell more oil from the country’s strategic reserves—and is considering authorizing new sales this winter—as it tries to head off the potential for more market shocks and high prices, according to senior administration officials. President Biden plans to address the nation on gasoline prices Wednesday as midterm elections near and the clock runs down on previously planned releases of government reserves that have helped temper prices at the pump, Timothy Puko reports.

Inflation watch: shipping. The peak shipping season is fizzling as overstocked retailers cancel overseas orders and freight companies scale back expectations for heavy freight volumes heading into the holidays. Typically in the last quarter of the year, cargo carriers from container lines to parcel operators bulk up their profits on strong demand. But a range of measures of shipping demand across the U.S. are sliding, freight rates are falling as a result, leading carriers to pull back capacity amid concerns a deeper downturn is coming, Paul Berger and Paul Page report.

Rates are moving in the opposite direction for LNG transport. Daily freight rates to ship liquefied natural gas are at a record high, and prices are expected to climb further as winter approaches. Spot rates for ships commonly used to transport LNG are at $450,000 this week, a sixfold increase since the start of this year, according to the Baltic Exchange, a London-based freight-information provider. A record has been established several times since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruptions to fuel-supply lines, Costas Paris reports.

Inflation watch: manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing output rose in September to its highest level since 2008 and capacity utilization matched its highest level since 2000, according to a report from the Federal Reserve. The possibly good news: The rise in output suggests that demand for goods was still strong heading into the fall. The possibly bad news: "Periods of high utilization tend to be associated with high inflation. ... The last time inflation was as high as it has been this year was the very early 1980s. In the lead-up to that period, capacity utilization shot up to north of 85%," said Wells Fargo economist Tim Quinlan.

• Heard on the Street: Can Motown Save U.S. Manufacturing? (Read)

Inflation watch: U.K. The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation returned to double digits in September, cementing expectations of another rise in the Bank of England’s key interest rate early next month. The Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday that consumer prices were 10.1% higher than a year earlier, a faster rate of inflation than the 9.9% recorded in August and back to July’s level, which was the highest in 40 years, Paul Hannon reports.

• Bank of England Pushes On With Plan to Start Selling Bonds (Read)

More than 100,000 people took to the streets across France on Tuesday to demand higher wages to cope with rising energy bills and broader inflation, a sign of the political turmoil facing European leaders as the war in Ukraine rages with no end in sight. Striking teachers, railway and health workers staged marches in dozens of cities across the country, joining protests led by refinery workers who have been on strike for several weeks, choking fuel supplies nationwide and hobbling the country’s refining system. The unrest is a test of Europe’s support of Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Europeans were already reeling from inflation fueled by supply-chain woes and other factors when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded the pain, Noemie Bisserbe, Matthew Dalton and Bojan Pancevski report.

• Europe’s Fashion Industry Gets Torn by Soaring Energy Bills (Read)

• Russia Has Destroyed Nearly a Third of Ukraine’s Power Stations, Zelensky Says (Read)

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Real Time Economics comes to you from WSJ reporters and editors around the world. Today's issue was curated and edited by Jeff Sparshott (@jeffsparshott) and Greg Ip (@greg_ip) in Washington, D.C., and James Hookway (@JamesHookway) in London.

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