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March 1, 2022 - Brief Issue 292
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
Today at noon, join New America for a discussion of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with comments from the ground (RSVP here). Also follow the latest developments on Twitter with New America and ASU’s Candace Rondeaux and the Future Frontlines program.
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Top Headlines
Moderna Faces a Lawsuit over its Vaccine (Health & Science)
Pfizer Vaccine Less Effective in 5- to 11-Year-Old Children (Health & Science)
Ukraine Hospitals Could Run Out of Oxygen in 24 Hours (Around the World)
In Some African Nations, Armed Police Force Vaccinations (Around the World)
In Germany, the Anti-Vax/Anti-Restrictions Movement is Merging with the Far Right (Around the World)
Female Circumcision Rose in Somaliland Amid Pandemic (Around the World)
New Zealand Transmission Rates Soar (Around the World)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Forces Changes to State of the Union; Biden Wary of Trumpeting Success Against Pandemic in Speech; State of the Union to Push Nursing Home Oversight (U.S. Government & Politics)
California, Oregon, and Washington to Lift Mask Mandates; White House Lifts Own Mask Mandate (U.S. Government & Politics)
Nearly Half of the 500 Million Free Covid Tests Remain Unclaimed (U.S. Government & Politics)
Inflation Drives Up Pension Fund Costs; Inflation Measure HIts Fastest Pace Since 1983 (U.S. Economy)
Target Raises Its Minimum Wage to $24/Hour in Some Markets (U.S. Economy)
Study Finds Young, Risky Drivers Caused Rise in Vehicle Fatalities During Pandemic (U.S. Society)
School Closures Cause Disruption for School Children (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 79,045,719 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 950,489 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 553,079,296 vaccine doses, with 76.4% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 64.9% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 87.9% have received at least one dose, and 75% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 43.7% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 437,247,221 cases of coronavirus, with 5,958,321 deaths.
Moderna Faces a Lawsuit over its Vaccine
Moderna is facing another patent challenge over its coronavirus vaccine from Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences, two small biotech companies who allege that Moderna used its technology to develop their vaccine (WaPo). The smaller companies claim that Moderna infringed on their patent for lipid nanoparticle technology, which they said was key in the development of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine and took their scientists “years of painstaking work to develop and refine,” according to the complaint filed Monday. “Relying on Arbutus’s LNP [lipid nanotechnology particle] technology … Moderna was able to begin producing its COVID-19 vaccine within just a few days of the SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence entering the public domain,” the lawsuit says. It also claims that “Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine could not have been developed, much less on a timeline unprecedented in human history, without Arbutus’s proven and patented LNP delivery technology — technology that had transformed vaccine design from a years-long project into one that could be performed within an hour over a January weekend.”
Moderna expects coronavirus vaccine sales to top $19 billion in 2022, and Arbutus and Genevant could demand some of that if their challenge succeeds. Moderna is also involved in a patent dispute with the U.S. federal government; three scientists from the National Institutes of Health claim they were co-inventors of the vaccine.
Pfizer Vaccine Less Effective in 5- to 11-Year-Old Children
A new large set of data collected by health officials in New York state shows that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is much less effective in preventing infection in children ages 5 to 11 years compared to older adolescents or adults (NYT). It still prevents severe illness in children, but even within a month after full immunization, it offers virtually no protection against infection. Health officials and scientists hypothesize that the lack of efficacy could be due to the small dose used in children, which is one-third the dose given to adults. The findings were posted online on Monday; the data was collected during the Omicron wave. The Pfizer vaccine is the only one authorized for that age group in the United States. Doctors still recommend getting children vaccinated because it still does provide protection against severe disease. “We need to make sure we emphasize the doughnut and not the hole,” said Dr. Kathryn M. Edwards, a pediatric vaccine expert at Vanderbilt University.
Around the World
Ukraine Hospitals Could Run Out of Oxygen in 24 Hours
The World Health Organization warned that Ukrainian hospitals could run out of oxygen supplies in the 24 hours as Russia’s invasion disrupts transportation and supply chains across the country. Oxygen is critical for patients with Covid-19 and other health complications. There were around 1,700 people hospitalized for Covid across the country before the Russian invasion (CNBC). On Sunday, the WHO said that trucks were not able to transport oxygen from plants to hospitals. Hospital services were also threatened by electricity and power shortages and ambulances were at risk of being caught in the crossfire. Ukraine was dealing with a suge of Omicron-fueled cases, with infections rising 555% between Jan. 15 and Feb. 25, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
In Some African Nations, Armed Police Force Vaccinations
Some African nations are taking a more aggressive approach to getting their populations vaccinated by using armed police to force vaccinations on people. In Uganda, the Wall Street Journal reports an incident where police removed unvaccinated people from a bus before ushering them to a tent by the side of the road where they were injected with the Astra Zeneca vaccine before being allowed to continue on their journey. “We are doing this to protect people against the pandemic. It is in everyone’s best interests,” said Marutsya Tumwine, a police commander in Kasese district, who witnessed the scene. Uganda hasn’t made vaccination against covid-19 mandatory yet, but the country is battling vaccine hesitancy due to conspiracy theories and mistrust of the government. Rwanda has also been using aggressive tactics to increase their vaccination rate. Local leaders search for vaccine evaders by going door-to-door.
In Germany, the Anti-Vax/Anti-Restrictions Movement is Merging with the Far Right
The protest movement against Coviid measures has mobilized tens of thousands of people in German cities and villages is increasingly merging with the far right movement and taking an “increasingly sinister turn, with a specter of violence that is alarming security agencies,” according to the New York Times. In recent years, the far right movement has latched on to Europe’s debt crisis and the influx of refugees into the bloc as causes and now the virus seems to be its latest recruiting tool. The number of verbal and physical attacks on politicians tripled last year, according to federal police statistics. “Violent resistance to democratic rules is now a frequent demand in the anti-corona protests,” Dirk-Martin Christian, domestic intelligence chief of the state of Saxony, said in an email interview. “The routine assertion that we live in a dictatorship and under an emergency regime that must be eliminated, and against which public resistance is legitimate, is evidence of the progressive radicalization of this movement.” The radicalization is especially evident in the former Communist East, where extremists organize the protests and increasingly control information (and disinformation) channels. One recent example was when an angry crowd beating drums and carrying torches showed up outside the house of the health minister of the state of Saxony, until a neighbor called the police. A police raid on the homes of people who debated ways to kill Michael Kretschmer, the governor of Saxony, found weapons and bomb-making ingredients. In Dresden, hospital staff have been attacked.
Female Circumcision Rose in Somaliland Amid Pandemic
Government officials and health workers say that female genital mutilation (FGM) rose sharply during the pandemic in Somaliland and other parts of Africa when girls were kept out of school (AP). Economic pressure from the pandemic contributed to many impoverished parents being forced to marry off their daughters, a process that carries a cultural expectation of FGM. The U.N. Population Fund warned during the early months of the pandemic that the disruptions caused by lockdowns and travel bans could result in over 2 million cases of FGM over the next decade that otherwise could have been prevented by outreach and prevention programs.
New Zealand Transmission Rates Soar
New Zealand’s Covid-19 transmission rates are now some of the highest in the world, after the country managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic over the past two years. Researchers said that the country’s reproduction number is around 4.23, meaning the average infected person is passing the virus on to more than four people (Guardian). Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Monday that starting Wednesday, vaccinated travelers will no longer need to self-isolate but will still be required to be tested on the day they arrive and on day five or six. Epidemiologist Michael Baker said there was no longer much public health justification for continuing controls at the border, because “people arriving from overseas will not contribute to the disease burden,” continuing, “We have almost got to the point now where people arriving in New Zealand have a lower prevalence of Omicron infection than people who live in New Zealand.” The border reopening and the loosening of quarantine rules is a welcome change for the tourism industry.
U.S. Government & Politics
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Forces Changes to State of the Union; Biden Wary of Trumpeting Success Against Pandemic in Speech; State of the Union to Push Nursing Home Oversight
President Biden will give his State of the Union speech at 9:00 PM tonight, Tuesday, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced Biden to revise his speech to address the international crisis (WaPo). The Washington Post reports that the changes are “not a wholesale rewrite,” but will add emphasis on foreign policy, a somewhat rare focus for State of the Union speeches historically. However, Biden still plans to address the pain brought by the pandemic. Last year’s address to a joint session of Congress - Presidents do not give an official State of the Union in their first year - did not allow attendees to bring guests because of the pandemic. That restriction remains, although the number of attendees is higher than the 200 allowed last year. Meanwhile, the Capitol Police have reinstituted the fencing around the Capitol in part as a precaution given reports of potential anti-vaccine mandate trucker protests, an issue we covered in yesterday’s brief.
Politico reports that Biden is wary about declaring victory against the pandemic in his speech even as new CDC guidance supports relaxing mask restrictions and cases plummet (Politico). Politico writes, “Biden’s remarks will emphasize that the nation has made significant progress toward reining in the pandemic, five people familiar with the planning of the speech said. Yet even as he touts how far the U.S. has come, Biden is likely to warn that it may still be a bumpy path back to normalcy.” Politico quotes one of its sources as saying, “If you’re waiting to rip off your masks, this is not it.” Two of Politico’s sources said that aides warned regarding an overly triumphal tone given the potential for new variants and surges.
One area where Biden is expected to propose policy action in the State of the Union is expanding oversight of nursing homes (WaPo). The White House announced on Monday that it would increase oversight of nursing homes, with the White House “citing data that more than 200,000 nursing home residents and staff have died from covid-19, representing almost one-quarter of all U.S. covid deaths,” as the Washington Post reports. The Post writes, “Officials said the plan would set minimum staffing levels, reduce the use of shared rooms and crack down on the poorest performing nursing homes to reduce the risk of residents contracting infectious diseases. The White House also said it planned to scrutinize the role of private equity firms, citing data that their ownership was linked with worse outcomes and higher costs.”
California, Oregon, and Washington to Lift Mask Mandates; White House Lifts Own Mask Mandate
On Tuesday, California will lift its general mask requirement for unvaccinated people, and on March 11, it will relax its mask mandate applying to schools and child care centers (Politico). Oregon and Washington will also end their mask mandates on the 11th (NYT). Politico writes, “The highly anticipated update, which largely aligns with the accelerated timelines from Washington state and Oregon, caps weeks of speculation over when the Newsom administration would begin to roll back some of the nation’s strictest classroom restrictions.” California Governor Gavin Newsom stated, “California continues to adjust our policies based on the latest data and science, applying what we’ve learned over the past two years to guide our response to the pandemic.”
Meanwhile, the White House has lifted its mask mandate, according to a memo sent to White House staffers on Monday (NYT). The memo reads in part, “Effective tomorrow, Tuesday, March 1, we are lifting the requirement that fully vaccinated individuals wear masks on the White House campus.” Unvaccinated people will still be required to wear masks and get tested. The New York Times reports, “A person familiar with the White House’s mask guidance said that the memo was a first step toward opening up the White House in the next few weeks, adding that the president and Jill Biden, the first lady, will have guests at the White House for food and drinks before the address on Tuesday. And up till now, they did not attend White House events with refreshments as part of Covid safety protocols.” The Capitol is also planning to lift its mask mandate prior to the State of the Union speech, according to comments by the Capitol physician on Sunday (NYT).
Nearly Half of the 500 Million Free Covid Tests Remain Unclaimed
The AP reports that nearly half of the 500 million free Coronavirus tests made available by the White House have not been claimed (AP). The AP writes, “The White House says Americans have placed 68m orders for tests, which leaves about 46% of stock still available. Testing will become more important with mask requirements easing, some experts say.”
Bonus Read: “Trucker crypto crackdown in Canada fuels GOP backlash in U.S.,” (Politico).
U.S. Economy
Inflation Drives Up Pension Fund Costs; Inflation Measure HIts Fastest Pace Since 1983
The Wall Street Journal reports that many major pension funds are seeing their costs increase as a result of rising inflation, related to the pandemic’s impact (WSJ). The Journal writes, “About half of states link pension benefits for some or all of their retired workers to changes in the consumer-price index, according to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. With inflation reaching 7% in December, some retirement funds are now looking at increasing pension checks by 3% or more for the first time in a decade. At others, board members or state officials are approving one-time cost-of-living raises.” In prior years, funds often saw “windfalls” as cost of living adjustments remained low and stable. The Journal notes, “The $28 billion Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension System, for example, got an unexpected gain of $264 million last year when cost-of-living adjustments for pensioners came in well below the actuaries’ assumption of 2.75%. This year, with the fund’s cost-of-living adjustment likely to approach 7% for many beneficiaries, the system is likely to pay out tens of millions dollars more than anticipated. Pensions range from 50% to 90% of final salary.”
On Friday, the Commerce Department released data showing that a measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve reached its fastest pace of growth since 1983 in January (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The Commerce Department’s personal-consumption-expenditures index measure of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.2% in January from a year ago, up from 4.9% in December. That marks the sharpest 12-month increase since April 1983.”
Target Raises Its Minimum Wage to $24/Hour in Some Markets
On Monday, the retail giant Target announced that it would raise its minimum hourly wage to $24 in some markets with other markets ranging between that and $15/hour (WSJ). Target is also adjusting its benefits. The Journal writes, “Target said it would invest as much as $300 million in the bumps to pay and benefits for employees. Starting in April the company is enabling store associates who work at least 25 hours a week to enroll in a Target medical plan, down from at least 30 hours a week. Target said the change will enable roughly 20% of staff to be newly eligible for the company’s healthcare benefits.” The changes come as retailers face a tight market for labor driven by the impact of the pandemic, and as inflation drives demands for pay raises to keep track.
Bonus Read: “A Little-Noticed Reason Workers Quit: Too Little Work,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Study Finds Young, Risky Drivers Caused Rise in Vehicle Fatalities During Pandemic
A study published on Monday found that although fewer drivers hit the road during the pandemic, a greater number of those that did were younger and riskier drivers, contributing to a rise in traffic deaths. The Washington Post writes: “The study sought to understand why traffic deaths rose while driving was down at least 20 percent during much of 2020. During that time, crashes involving impairment, speeding, red-light running, aggressiveness and non-seatbelt usage spiked to their highest level in more than a decade, AAA said.” 2020 saw the highest number of crash-related fatalities since 2007. The study also found that drivers who stayed off the roads during early pandemic days were more likely to be safe when behind the wheel. These drivers were “generally of middle age and disproportionately female, a group the study said had a comparatively lower risk of involvement in fatal crashes.”
School Closures Cause Disruption for School Children
The pandemic has caused a disruption for school children who, during Omicron, missed a significant portion of their school days. The New York Times, in partnership with Dynata found that last month “one quarter of U.S. schoolchildren missed more than a week of in-person learning.” This occurred all around the country and parents have become increasingly uncertain as to whether or not schools will be open for their standard five-day weeks. The reasons behind school closures have to do with more than just infections and exposures. Teacher burnout and shortages are also contributing to kids being sent home. “The practice in many school districts reflects a new comfort level with keeping children home, even on short notice, in a way that was rare before pandemic-era remote schooling.” The situation has left parents fatigued and students “began the year, on average, half a school year behind in math and reading, and many have also struggled socially and emotionally, data shows.”
Analysis & Arguments
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