12 Policy Options to Counter Russian Aggression—Military, Economic, and Diplomatic*

1. Move U.S. Naval Forces to the Black Sea [Bryan Clark]: "Russia depends on the Black Sea because it is the one port area they can depend on any time of year. So they've tried to essentially close off the Sea of Azov at its far Eastern end to prevent Ukraine from being able to get access to it, even though there's Ukrainian coastline inside the Sea of Azov. Russia is trying to essentially create the perception that it's a Russian lake.
   
   "One thing that is limiting the ability of the U.S. and others is the Montreux Convention [which restricts the passage of naval ships in the Black Sea from non-Black Sea countries]. Getting an agreement with Turkey to be able to bring more naval forces [into the Black Sea], or simply aggregating and driving those naval forces in is going to be necessary to try to regain that balance of power, because right now you can really only send a couple of destroyers and maybe a non-combatant support ship. Romania and Bulgaria are probably our main avenues to try to improve that balance of forces, so [the U.S. should] give them more ISR capabilities to target and monitor Russian activities."
    
2. Partner with Japan [Clark]: "There’s an opportunity here to show Russia that we can choke off access to the sea that they enjoy via Vladivostok, because it’s trapped inside the ‘first island chain’ of Japan. Russians have been very aggressive in their gray-zone warfare against Japan. This is not a European phenomenon only; they’ve been doing over-flights and taking actions against Japanese forces for decades. Japan would be potentially willing to help the United States demonstrate to the Russians that we have this access to close off, or the ability to close off their access to the sea."
    
3. Pressure the Northern Military District [Dr. William Schneider]: "We might take advantage of the fact that both Finland and Sweden have become increasingly frustrated and critical of Russian behavior. We might look to increase pressure on Russia’s Northern Military District area, which in the Cold War period, was just the headquarters of their northern fleet; now they have integrated armed forces there. So increasing the exposure of that venue is a way of further increasing pressure on Russia."
    
4. Conduct Gray Zone Cyber Operations [Clark]:  "The U.S. could use military operations that fall short of war to coerce the Russians to pull back from potential aggression, such as cyber operations by the U.S. Cyber Command. Cyber Command has an approach they call persistent engagement in which they are constantly going at it with their adversaries online, not letting them attack and then respond, but instead fighting it out in the trenches day-to-day."
    
5. Employ Persistent Engagement with Electromagnetic Warfare [Clark]: "Applying the persistent engagement idea to electromagnetic warfare, we could go after Russian forces that are operating adjacent to Eastern Ukraine using electro-warfare to deny their communications and mess with their ISR. For Russia’s military infrastructure in the Far East, there are opportunities for us to use cyber and electromagnetic warfare to undermine Russian confidence in their those facilities' ability to operate in conflict. It will help take their attention away from Europe, and remind them that they have this massive vulnerability in their East that's not really well protected."
    
6. Strengthen Ukraine's ISR Capabilities [Clark]: "There are things the U.S. could do that don't involve boots on the ground, but could help turn the tide in a conflict scenario. For example: Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance [ISR] capabilities, so unmanned ISR platforms like the MQ-4 Global Hawk, the MQ-9 Reaper, space-based ISR capabilities, providing those directly to Ukrainian forces. That could make a big difference when you're talking about going up against the Russians, who tend to use a lot of counter-ISR capabilities that they could use to defeat the Ukrainians."
    
7. Offer Air Defense Systems to Ukraine [Clark]: "The U.S. could send over some additional defensive capabilities that might require U.S. assistance, like short-range air defense systems. Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense capabilities, or M-SHORAD, are not very sophisticated, but it's probably new to the Ukrainians. They might need to have some help operating them."
    
8. Disrupt Russian Markets Through Sanctions [Amb. Marshall Billingslea]: "The Biden administration could inflict severe consequences on Russia's economy if they wanted to. Any sector or entity that we identify as a target of a future designation in response to an invasion is going to suffer immediate market disruption, which I would hope we would undertake against Russia’s timber exports, copper production, nickel, and their banking and financial sector. When [Treasury] imposed sanctions in 2018, very targeted sanctions on individuals and entities, those sanctions caused the 27 wealthiest people in Russia to lose $16 billion in one day. The ruble dropped to its lowest level since 2016 and the Moscow stock exchange dropped to its lowest level in four years."
    
9. Weaken Russia's Kleptocracy [Schneider]: "We are dealing with a sort of criminal kleptocracy, whose instrument of foreign policy include this kind of extortion that we're seeing in Ukraine. And with these criminal enterprises, part of the objective [should be communicating] that the ‘godfather has lost his touch.’ He can't deliver. He doesn't have it anymore. And so, if we can take these actions, so that Russia is much worse off, from the effect of its viability as an autocratic and kleptocratic state. It can put a churn into their leadership, the churn can produce a different outcome."
    
10. Signal Proactive Military Actions [Billingslea]: "Biden needs to announce now, preemptively, the steps he's going to take before any new arms control negotiations are launched. Accelerated development of the Army and Marine Corps’ medium-range missile programs in particular is vital. And the Biden administration should begin very visible negotiations on deployment and basing plans in Europe by 2023, which is when the first of the battalions hopefully will deliver to the Army."
     
11. Secure EU Sanctions Cooperation [Billingslea]: "This administration issued a formal Treasury policy a few months ago that emphasized the desirability of multilateral action in the sanctions domain. And I agree with that. It would be hugely helpful to have the EU on board. It would magnify the effect of any U.S. actions, but I would hope the Biden administration will not self-deter in this area [on the grounds] that any one country in the EU can block adoption of the package. There are several that probably would step forward to do Putin's bidding on anything of consequence."
     
12. Hold Russia Accountable in Arms Control Negotiations [Billingslea]: "If we're going to talk about conventional arms control, let's remember for a moment that the Russians violated the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty from day one. They continue to illegally occupy parts of Georgia. They continue to illegally occupy parts of Moldova and those kinds of demands should be issued before any return to conventional arms control in Europe is seriously considered."
    
    
    *Excerpts taken from the Hudson event "Countering Russian Aggression: US Policy Options." Quotations have been edited for length and clarity.