Hello,
Welcome to the second edition of the Keystone Defense Initiative's newsletter.
As recent public revelations of China's nuclear-capable hypersonic missile testing reveal, today's geopolitical threat environment is vastly different from that of the Cold War era.
Lt. Gen. Thomas Bussiere, deputy commander of U.S. Strategic Command, noted in August: "there’s going to be a point, a crossover point, where the number of threats presented by China will exceed the number of threats that Russia presents.” He added that the number of weapons and stockpiled nuclear warheads are not the only criteria for this status; the way they are operationally fielded is also a significant criterion.
This month, KDI examines the deterrence challenges facing the United States: two peer adversaries that are fully engaged with modernizing their robust nuclear arsenals; the continuing risks posed by nuclear rogue states; and the Biden administration's efforts to pursue arms control dialogue with Russia. To meet the threats of a new tripolar nuclear era, the U.S. must commit to developing and fielding the nuclear capabilities that fortify America's strategic deterrence.
-Rebeccah Heinrichs, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Our Latest
What We Risk if We Fail
to Modernize the US Nuclear Deterrent
Rebeccah Heinrichs | Heritage Foundation
There are many factors that have led us here, but the crux of the problem is that as our enemies become more able to challenge the United States, they simultaneously perceive an inverse correlation in the strength of American resolve to defend its stated vital national interests.
Deterrence relies upon our adversaries' perception of our resolve, and the United States has given them reason to doubt the nation's strength, writes Rebeccah Heinrichs in her latest report. As our adversaries become better equipped to challenge the United States, it is vital that America demonstrates its commitment to defending our core interests.
Modernizing the Nuclear Triad: Decline or Renewal?
Andrew Krepinevich | Hudson Institute
With the modernization of America's aging nuclear defense triad estimated to be a decade away, can the stable nuclear balance that the United States has enjoyed since the dawn of the nuclear age still be preserved?
In a new report, Andrew Krepinevich explores China and Russia's efforts to expand and modernize their nuclear arsenals, and the precision warfare advancements that are disrupting Cold War-era conventions.
KDI Quotes
A collection of key quotes on strategic deterrence from prominent voices in our community
Congressman Don Bacon offers remarks following the bipartisan effort to reject Congressman John Garamendi's amendment that would halt development of the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent until 2031.
Sen. Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
“The US Must Reject a Sole Purpose Nuclear Policy” | Defense News
“While administrations have considered shifting to a no first use policy, they inevitably understood it would damage U.S. and allied security. Indeed, the Obama administration studied this closely and rejected such a policy change not once, but twice. Earlier this year, our British allies also rejected this change, and they maintain their own policy of strategic ambiguity.”
David Trachtenberg, Keith Payne, Michaela Dodge
“The ‘Action-Reaction’ Arms Race Narrative vs. Historical Realities” | NIPP
"No dialogue should be necessary to avoid dangerous interactions between U.S. and Russian forces and avoid threatening exercises. Russia needs to be reminded of its existing obligations, and we should avoid any suggestion that we would make new concessions to get them to observe them."
Matthew R. Costlow
“The Folly of Limiting US Missile Defenses for Arms Control” | NIPP
“U.S. officials should ask their Russian counterparts why they continue to insist that missile defense is a prerequisite to further arms control progress, but for 20 years after the United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty they have still agreed to arms control.
U.S. missile defenses unconstrained by international treaty have not prevented bilateral nuclear arms control treaties in the past two decades, and there is no reason to believe today is any different.”
Top Reads
China’s Test Of An Orbital Hypersonic Missile Is A Big Deal
Patty-Jane Geller | 1945
Arms Control Is Not an End Unto Itself
John R. Bolton & Robert Joseph | National Review
Hypersonic Weapons Could Tilt War in Favor of Russia, China
Seth Cropsey | The Hill
Biden Must Continue the Bipartisan Nuclear Consensus
Anthony Ruggiero | National Interest
