This issue

– beyond nudge
– 2021 global risks
– a weak centre of government
– COVID performance index
– 'thou shalt nots' of systems chan
Plus what I'm reading.

Research brief: Beyond nudge: advancing the state-of-the-art of behavioural public policy and administration ​

A paper in Policy and Politics discusses advancements in behavioural public policy and administration. It argues the behavioural study of public policy and administration can go beyond the individual level as behavioural policies have the potential to better understand and shape social outcomes. Read our brief on the paper.

2021 global risks  ​

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report centres on the risks and consequences of widening inequalities and societal fragmentation. The immediate human and economic cost of COVID-19 is severe. It threatens to scale back progress on reducing poverty and inequality as well as weakening social cohesion and global cooperation. 

Global risk outlook 

Among the highest likelihood risks of the next ten years are extreme weather, climate action failure and human-led environmental damage. Technology risks include digital power concentration, digital inequality and cybersecurity failure. Infectious diseases is seen as the highest impact risk followed by climate action failure, weapons of mass destruction and debt crises. 

Economic fragility and societal divisions set to increase 

Underlying disparities in healthcare, education, financial stability and technology have led the pandemic to disproportionately impact certain groups and countries.

The economic and long-term health impacts from COVID-19 will continue to have severe consequences. Working hours equivalent to 495 million jobs were lost in the second quarter of 2020 alone. The pandemic’s economic shockwave will immediately increase inequality as will an uneven recovery. Only 28 economies are expected to have grown in 2020. 

A growing digital divide 

COVID-19 has expanded the digitisation of human interaction through e-commerce, online education and remote work. This digital shift also risks exacerbating inequalities as a widening digital gap can undermine prospects for an inclusive recovery. 

A doubly disrupted generation of youth 

Young adults worldwide are experiencing their second major global crisis in a decade. This generation faces serious challenges to their education, economic prospects and mental health from the consequences of the financial crisis, rising inequality and disruption from industrial transformation. 

The heart of the problem: a weak centre is undermining the UK government ​

A paper from the UK Institute for Government considers the effectiveness of ‘Number 10’ (the Prime Minister’s office) and its departmental host the Cabinet Office. It argues the heart of government that directly supports the prime minister is weak especially compared with Treasury. The paper also sets out ways to improve how the centre can work. 

A weak centre 

By international standards, the UK’s Cabinet Office and Number 10 offer limited policy and implementation support to the prime minister. This weak centre: 

• obscures clear lines of accountability among ministers and civil servants 
• results in incoherent and conflicting policies 
• hinders the delivery of cross-cutting work  
• inhibits devolution and decentralisation of authority. 

This means the UK has the worst of all worlds: a highly centralised system of government without the capacity to organise it from the centre. The COVID-19 and Brexit responses illustrate the Cabinet Office’s weakness.  

Building a more effective centre  

To make the centre of government more effective, the Cabinet Office and Number10 need to focus on building up their capacity on the core functions that are essential for government to work effectively: 

• providing policy advice and support to give the prime minister their own perspective on major decisions, and to challenge departmental views where necessary. 
• setting longer term policy direction, deciding between competing priorities and allocating responsibilities to departments. 
• resolving disputes and unblocking government policy and implementation. 
• holding departments accountable and providing progress assurance. 
• incubating and catalysing change on methodology, process or policy approaches. 

The Lowy Institute has developed a COVID performance index to assess the impact of geography, political systems and economic development on COVID-19 outcomes around the world. The result is a web based interactive which assesses 98 countries’ handling of the pandemic. 

Measuring performance 

The index tracked six measures for which data was available. The period spanned the 36 weeks that followed every country’s hundredth confirmed case of COVID-19 and 14-day rolling averages were calculated for the following indicators: 

• confirmed cases 
• confirmed deaths 
• confirmed cases per million people 
• confirmed deaths per million people 
• confirmed cases as a proportion of tests 
• tests per thousand people 

At a glance 

• In a ranked comparison of the 98 countries, New Zealand took out the number one spot, followed by Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand and Cyprus. 
• Australia was ranked eighth while the United States was the fifth-worst performing country. 
• On average, countries in the Asia–Pacific proved the most successful at containing the pandemic.  
• Democracies marginally outperformed authoritarian countries in their handling of the pandemic. 
• Smaller countries with populations of fewer than 10 million people consistently outperformed their larger counterparts throughout 2020. 
• Countries with higher per capita incomes performed better on average than developing countries for most of the crisis to date. 

The ‘thou shalt nots’ of systems change ​

Is system thinking a naïve mythology rather than a framework for bringing about effective solutions? Are the principles of systems thinking being implemented in ineffective ways? 

This Stanford Social Innovation Review article sets out to answer these questions. It describes a set of pathological behaviours deemed incompatible with a system perspective.  

These are grouped into four areas: 

1. Processes: embedding the processes to “work in systems” within organisations is difficult given the tendency for standard engineering approaches to problem solving 
2. Cognition and attitudes: an obsession with speed, action and results as an attitude can undermine a system mindset. Impatience and a bias for action legitimises shortcutting the less clear or ambiguous when it comes to system change strategy. 
3. Values: local ownership, trust, democratised power structures and including diverse voices are central to changing systems. However these can be hollow words if organisations don’t shift from operating values of urgency, measurement, and control. 
4. Roles: there is a challenge to shifting power and voice to those who do not have it now, pointing to the need to better clarify roles during change processes. 

The article also outlines two contrasting approaches: 

• traditional: engineering change 
• systems: embracing context 

Traditional: engineering change 

• Well-defined: narrow, focused, precise, often follows a linear path. 
• Technical solutions: Implementable solutions to be controlled, quantified, and managed, creating predictable change. 
• Result-oriented: Implementation plans are input-designed with fixed timeline and defined end states (outcomes). 

Systems: embracing context 

• Broad: Diffuse, messy, and ambiguous, entailing multiple pathways. 
• Creates possibilities: Adapting to socio-political context, locally-smart approaches, and expectation of learning and building on local knowledge.    
• Vision-oriented: No defined timeline nor pre-defined end-states, with shared visions guiding ongoing learning. 

1. How Peanuts created a space for thinking 

I was an avowed Peanuts aficionado growing up, obsessively following the exploits of Charlie Brown, Snoopy, Linus, Lucy and the gang. This New Yorker essay looks at how Charles Schulz’s comic strip invited readers to contemplate the big picture on a small scale. Through Peanuts, Schulz said he wanted to tell hard truths about intelligent things. But the main truth he tells is that there are no answers to the big questions. The comic strip’s gift is a space in which you are invited to think about the big questions together with powerfully complex characters who collectively represent the constituent parts of humanity. 

2. Ten evidence-based practices for de-biasing the workplace 

Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government has established a Gender Action Lab to create evidence to de-bias the workplace and help organisations fix systemic imbalances in opportunities and outcomes. The Lab has released a tip sheet outlining ten evidence-based practices for de-biasing the workplace. This covers talent management (anonymise resumes, use structured interviews) and politics and culture (harness the power of symbols to promote inclusion). 

‘Til the next issue

Maria Katsonis