What to Look For Re: Ukraine and a Russian Hybrid Campaign

By Dr. Bill Schneider

Ukraine Fears a Hybrid Campaign: "There is a sharp difference in views between President Biden and President Zelensky about the likelihood of large-scale conflict, with the Ukraine defense establishment believing that a large-scale invasion is unlikely, given the abundance of other lower-risk options. It is difficult to establish an evidentiary basis for the difference between White House views and those of President Zelensky.

"The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Center for Defense Strategies (CDS) has published a paper analyzing the likelihood of a large-scale conflict in Ukraine. The CDS argues for the likelihood of a hybrid campaign involving increasingly destructive cyber attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and information operations. These initiatives could be augmented by increasing the supply of advanced Russian military equipment—possibly by private military contractors such as the Wagner Group. There is evidence that Russia is resupplying its Russian Special Forces-led ‘separatist’ forces in southeast Ukraine. The escalation of Russia’s military presence in the Black Sea is also a likely dimension of a hybrid kinetic and non-kinetic campaign that would not involve a massive invasion with its ground forces. The CDS paper describes some scenarios for the evolution of conflict:  

The Russian Ministry of Defense has put into motion a complex plan to concentrate two large naval task forces in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The missile cruiser Varyag, together with a frigate and a tanker of the Pacific Fleet, left Vladivostok in December, sailing to the Indian Ocean. By January 18, 2022, the ships reached Iran and carried out exercises in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea with Iranian and Chinese warships. From there, the Varyag group plans to sail through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea.

At the same time, six large Russian assault ships are approaching Gibraltar to enter the Mediterranean (see Jamestown Foundation's EDM, January 24). ...Today, the assault ships may again possibly concentrate in the Black Sea, while the Varyag, armed with guided anti-ship missiles, will be augmenting the submarines and warships of the permanent Russian Mediterranean naval task force, together with the missile cruiser Moskva, as well as frigates and corvettes of the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian flotilla.

"These developments are playing out in a diplomatic context where US economic and financial sanctions are being increasingly exposed as insufficient for deterrence. Russia’s options to achieve its diplomatic objectives are unlikely to require a massive invasion."

NATO Membership for Sweden and Finland?: "Sweden has been the subject of threatening behavior from Russia, and along with Finland, may be reviewing the possibility of NATO membership. In 2013, a Russian Tu-22M3 conducted simulated nuclear strikes on Sweden, and in 2020, Russia conducted a simulated amphibious assault on Sweden’s Gotland Island in the Gulf of Finland. Last year, Putin elevated the status and role of what had been the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, expanding its role to include ground and air forces and designating it as the Northern Military District. Russia’s gradual strangulation of Belarus’s independence and its threatening behavior in Ukraine has produced a very hostile reaction to Russia in both Finland and Sweden – hence the consideration of formally joining NATO.

"The prospect of Finnish and Swedish NATO membership exposes Russia’s Northern Military District, especially the Kola Peninsula, to significant NATO presence. This presence could augment a NATO presence along the Western border of the independent States of the former Soviet Union. These measures could effectively move the center of NATO’s presence in Europe from the Fulda Gap in Central Germany to the Suwalki Gap in Poland on the Lithuanian border between Belarus and Russia’s isolated enclave of Kaliningrad."

See More:

• In Defense One, Bryan Clark and Dan Patt argue that Russia is teaching a master class in 'decision-centric' warfare, and that the U.S. Department of Defense must learn from Putin's example. By mobilizing threats in multiple domains, the Russian government built an array of options that U.S. and allied leaders are hard-pressed to counter.
   
• In National Review, Arthur Herman suggests that extending full NATO membership to the Nordic countries will force Putin to realize that making Ukraine part of his empire won’t solve any problems but will only create new—and very dangerous—ones.
   
• In The Wall Street Journal, Michael Doran and Bryan Clark examine how the Ukraine crisis exposes a flaw in President Biden’s Iran strategy. Washington engages with Beijing and Moscow as if they share core U.S. interests with respect to Iran, when instead they are working with Tehran to undermine the American-led global order.
   
• Does the West still have the will and capacity to deter Russia? Former President of Estonia Toomas Henrik Ilves joined Kenneth Weinstein for a discussion on the prospects for an effective policy response from the West.