3 Key Priorities for Biden's Trip to Europe

1:  Resolve Critical Areas of Disagreement [William Schneider]

Energy sanctions: "Germany and Italy are approximately 40 percent dependent of Russian gas, and hence are likely to resist renouncing purchases of Russian gas.  Germany has negotiated an LNG supply agreement with Qatar, but it is unlikely to offset their need for Russian energy. By contrast, Bulgaria has indicated that it will cease buying Russian energy."

Transfer of Soviet-era weapons from NATO countries: "The U.S. is the primary obstacle to the transfer of these weapon systems including air defense (both terminal and area). A tormented Jesuitical distinction has been made between offensive and defensive missions for the equipment by DoD and NSC lawyers. The tactical situation in Ukraine is sufficiently grave that the issue is likely to be revisited."

Secondary sanctions on China: "China has underscored the importance of the China-Russia 'no limits' agreement promulgated on 4 February 2022 and have implied that they will seek to mitigate the impact of U.S. and European sanctions on Russia. Extensive European trade and investment in China will make securing an agreement difficult."

2:  Promote Cohesion Among Allies [Ken Weinstein]

"In rallying the NATO alliance, the President should keep in mind several major tasks. He should thank the front-line states that have stepped up dramatically to provide security assistance to Ukraine, including NATO’s Black Sea flank, especially Turkey, its Baltic flank, and Poland—and note they are a model for others to follow.

"President Biden should also take to task those NATO states hesitating to criticize Russia, most notably Orbán’s Hungary. While he privately can lay out plans for upgrading military assistance to Ukraine in the short term, he should also work to ensure that Germany’s new government doesn’t go wobbly in its promise of a dramatic defense overhaul which will be critical to Europe’s new security architecture. And the President should push for alliance unity in pressuring China not to aid Putin further." 

3:  Lay the Groundwork for NATO's New Direction [Peter Rough]

"President Biden's [goal] in Brussels is to coordinate missions and roles for the anti-Russian coalition. This is a job that has fallen [on] every American president since the start of the Cold War, and that hasn’t changed.

"What is different is the strategic opportunity of the present moment. Biden must push to turn the continent’s visceral rejection of Russia’s invasion into concrete commitments. There is a danger that over time the old voices of accommodation will adapt their arguments to new circumstances. The Biden team’s goal should be to lock current attitudes into forward-leaning policies as much as possible. Moreover, NATO will decide on a new Strategic Concept at the Madrid Summit this summer. The summit in Brussels this week is an opportunity to lay the groundwork for NATO’s new direction."

Quotes have been edited for clarity and length. 

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