This issue

– understanding prevention and early intervention
– Australia and the world after COVID-19
– COVID-19 global macroeconomics impacts
– Australia's children
– complexity in policy evaluation
Plus what I'm reading.

Research brief: Understanding prevention and early intervention in public policy

A paper in Policy Design and Practice discusses the factors that support the development of prevention and early intervention as an approach to public policy. It also identifies opportunities for policymakers to improve the design and implementation of these policies. Read our brief on the paper. 

After COVID-19: Australia and the world rebuild​

ANZSOG is continuing to provide public managers with the best thinking on the COVID-19 crisis and beyond. A new series of webinars in cooperation with the Centre for Public Impact – on the theme of Reimagining Government – looks at how COVID-19 could be a spur to change for the better, and invites you to participate.

ANZSOG’s Leading in a Crisis series has now published seven pieces synthesising the latest research on how governments should deal with a fast-changing mega-crisis like COVID-19.

A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute provides a policy-focused analysis of the world we will face once the pandemic has passed. While the global pandemic is far from over, it is clear the crisis has brought about seismic social, economic and geopolitical changes.

The report includes 26 chapters on a range of themes, from Australia’s domestic situation through to the global balance of power, climate and technology issues.

These include the following two chapters:

The Australian federation

The COVID-19 crisis has shown how effectively Australia’s federation can work. Australians are used to the machinery of federation being clunky and frustrating. The National Cabinet is an innovation that has been the foundation for Australia’s effective national pandemic response. Its success can be attributed to unity of purpose, debate on evidence for the purpose of acting, and transparency from political leaders about what they have decided and why.

Impact on women

The policies that have been designed to stem the spread of COVID-19 will continue to have a disproportionate impact on many segments of the population including women. It is estimated that up to 70 per cent of healthcare workers are women, with direct exposure to patients, so women are likely to be more susceptible to acquiring COVID-19. In many countries, lockdown measures have resulted in spikes in the number of cases of domestic violence as some abusers use the pandemic as a tool of control. The challenges for women have also been compounded with the need to balance the burden of care demands at home.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and the global economic impact is uncertain. This makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate macroeconomic policy responses. To better understand possible economic outcomes, a paper from ANU explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 could evolve in the coming year.

The scenarios

In the paper's 'low severity scenario', the estimated loss to global GDP is $US2.4 trillion. The costs rise sharply as the level of severity increases, with the highest potential cost to global GDP rising to $US9 trillion.     

In a high-severity scenario, the estimated loss to GDP in Australia in 2020 is $US103 billion. Under the same scenario, the global economic outlook is dire:

• China's loss to GDP in 2020 is estimated at $US1.6 trillion.
• In the United States, the figure is $US1.7 trillion.

• Japan's estimated loss to GDP is $US549 billion.
• In India loss to GDP in 2020 is estimated at $US567 billion.

What this means

A range of policy responses will be required both in the short term as well as in the coming years. In the short term, central banks and Treasuries need to make sure that disrupted economies continue to function while the disease outbreak continues.

The longer-term responses are critical because the idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy has been proven wrong by the latest outbreak of COVID-19. Global cooperation, especially in the sphere of public health and economic development, is essential. All major countries need to participate actively.

Australia’s children: Happy, healthy and safe but with room for improvement

Australian children are generally happy, healthy and safe. However, their experiences and subsequent outcomes can vary depending on where they live and their family circumstances, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s (AIHW) first comprehensive report on children since 2012.

Education

• In 2018, most Year 5 students achieved at or above the national minimum standard for reading (95 per cent) and numeracy (96 per cent).
• Students in remote and very remote areas were less likely to achieve at or above these minimum standards, as were Indigenous students.
• Between 2008 and 2018, the proportion of Indigenous students in Year 5 at or above national minimum standards for reading rose from 63 per cent to 77 per cent, and for numeracy rose from 69 per cent to 81 per cent.

Physical health

• While almost three-quarters (72 per cent) of children aged 5-14 eat enough fruit every day, very few (4 per cent) eat enough vegetables (2017-2018).
• About a quarter (24 per cent) of children aged 5-14 were overweight or obese in 2017-18.
• The likelihood of a child being overweight or obese was greater if they lived outside major cities, in one-parent families, or if they had a disability.

Mental health

• An estimated 70 per cent of children aged 12-13 had experienced bullying in the last year (2016).
• Almost half (46 per cent) of these children had also used bullying-like behaviours against other children.
• An estimated 14 per cent of children aged 4-11 experience a mental disorder (2013-2014). Boys were more commonly affected than girls (17 per cent compared with 11 per cent).

AIHW is an independent statutory agency producing authoritative information and statistics to support better policy and service delivery decisions. ANZSOG is delighted to be working with AIHW to bring you insights from their health and welfare reports and data.

Handling complexity in policy evaluation

HM Treasury in the UK produces the Magenta Book, a handbook on evaluation in government. The latest update includes a guide on complexity in policy evaluation. Policymakers face a daunting array of challenges: an ageing society, the promises and threats from artificial intelligence, obesity and public health, climate change and the need to sustain our natural environment.

What these kinds of policy challenges have in common is complexity. Their implications spill over and transcend established boundaries between departments, policy domains, sectors and research disciplines.

Why complexity matters

• Complex systems have characteristics that make their behaviour hard to predict and which present challenges to policy making and evaluation.
• Policy interventions in complex domains will often need to evolve over time in response to the way in which the system is adapting.
• This highlights the importance of a continuous process of evaluation and learning, to enable flexible or adaptive management in complex, evolving environments.
• Appreciation of how complexity can affect the policy process provides the opportunity to enhance effectiveness both in the design and delivery of the policy, and in its evaluation.

‘Til the next issue

Maria Katsonis