House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to Taiwan over the White House’s objections provides clarity on two fronts. First, the trip—coupled with new bipartisan legislation in the Senate, the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022—shows a remarkable willingness in Congress to provide necessary materials and support to allies and to get serious about deterring adversaries’ aggression. Second, Russia and China continue to support each other’s revanchist advances. Russian leaders denounced the speaker’s visit repeatedly and defended the People’s Republic of China’s highly provocative military exercises that followed. The United States now faces a Moscow-Beijing axis that will continue to challenge US strategy, especially during an economic downturn. US leaders can potentially galvanize American and ally support to deter these two nations, if they can follow through on a wise strategy.

-Rebeccah Heinrichs
Director of KDI & Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Hudson Highlights

Hudson Institute Japan Chair and former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and KDI Director Rebeccah Heinrichs recently spoke on a virtual panel about the implications of Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Hudson Asia-Pacific Security Chair Patrick M. Cronin moderated the discussion. During the event, McMaster highlighted why the US and its allies need to bolster their resolve as Moscow and Beijing double down on support for each other’s regional threats and aggression.

“And Xi Jinping and Putin are together in this. They’re together in their belief that we are weak—that we’re over. . . . Looking at Russia’s response to China’s response to the speaker’s visit is really important. I think it’s time to go back and read the joint statement that Putin and Xi Jinping put out just before the Beijing Olympics, where they professed their enduring love for one another, their partnership that has no limits. But the real message that was there is, ‘Hey, you guys are over. The West is over. It’s time for this new era of international relations—and we’re going to be in charge. We’re going to rewrite the rules.’”

Congress Rejects Biden’s Nuclear Rollback

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | National Review

“Russia is modernizing its nuclear weapons while saber-rattling on NATO’s eastern front, and China is in the middle of a nuclear strategic breakout while threatening Taiwan. Nevertheless, President Joe Biden wants the United States to roll back efforts to improve its nuclear deterrent — but in a remarkable act of bipartisanship, Congress has refused Biden’s plans for the rollback.”

Prepare Ukraine for Victory in a Long War

Luke Coffey | Hudson Institute

“China is watching the war in Ukraine closely. Russia is China’s junior partner. A weakened or defeated Russia means a weaker China. Beijing is also watching how Western powers support Ukraine, so a strong and victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan stronger too. Some have suggested that the US should sacrifice its security interest in Ukraine to focus on the threat from China. The choice between security in Europe or security in the Indo-Pacific is a false dichotomy. In terms of US national interests, these two regions are intimately linked.”

To Contain Xi, Defeat Putin in Ukraine

Marshall Billingslea and Victoria Coates | National Review

“So while Europe began scrambling for alternatives to Russian energy imports, and the US and U.K. declared an outright ban on them, China started a massive buying spree—at discounted prices—of Russian gas and oil. This diversified its supply during the current global energy crisis, as Russia quickly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the lead exporter of energy to China in May, a position it has now held for three months and counting. In other words, Xi is bankrolling Putin’s invasion in exchange for cheap energy, an arrangement that suits them both handsomely.”

The Navy Needs Large, Unmanned Subs Like Snakehead to Defeat Undersea Defenses

Bryan Clark | Breaking Defense

“Retaining America’s undersea edge will require US submariners to employ techniques developed by aviators to overcome air defense systems. Bombers and fighters depend on electronic warfare aircraft to suppress air defenses by jamming radars and radios or destroying enemy systems with anti-radiation missiles. Similarly, submarines making their way into enemy waters will need unmanned vehicle escorts to counter the sensors and weapons China and Russia are deploying undersea.”

Learning to Win: Using Operational Innovation to Regain the Advantage at Sea against China

Bryan Clark, Trent Hone, Dmitry Filipoff, Seth Cropsey, and Timothy A. Walton | Hudson Institute

“But gaining an advantage against Chinese or Russian fleets will take more than fighting effectively at the level of individual ships, squadrons, or ground units. US naval forces will likely be the ‘away team’ in confrontations against the PLA or Russian Federation (RF) military, placing them at a disadvantage in terms of firepower, sustainment, and sensing. Add to that the near parity of opposing platforms and weapons, and the US fleet will be hard-pressed to win via a series of one-on-one engagements.”

American Withdrawal is America Last

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | Providence

“Protecting hearth and home doesn’t mean much when, across the globe, those who seek to displace and destroy American power are on the rise, destabilizing everything from food supply to energy commodities to nations’ sovereignty in their wake. A more sound approach to evaluating our foreign policy begins by conceding that, to secure domestic prosperity, retreat will not meet the demands of this dangerous, highly dynamic environment.”

Key Insights

The Coming War Over Taiwan

Hal Brands and Michael Beckley | Wall Street Journal

“First, the Pentagon can turn the Taiwan Strait into a deathtrap for attacking forces by stocking up on tools that are ready or nearly ready today. This means positioning hordes of missile launchers, armed drones, electronic jammers and sensors at sea and on allied territory near the strait. Instead of waiting for a Chinese assault to start and then surging missile-magnet aircraft carriers into the region, the Pentagon could use what is, in essence, a high-tech minefield to decimate China’s invasion forces and cut their communications links. These diffuse networks of munitions and jammers would be difficult for China to eliminate without starting a regionwide war. They could be installed on virtually anything that floats or flies, including cargo ships, barges and aircraft.”

As Missile Threats Grow, Don’t Give Up on Boost-Phase Defense

Ian Williams and Masao Dahlgren | Defense News

“The threats that prompted the United States to invest in homeland missile defense are still present and growing. The United States can ill afford to be vulnerable to coercion by states like North Korea if America intends to compete with peer competitors like China. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made clear, US vulnerability to nuclear blackmail emboldens authoritarian governments and constrains US options in dealing with their aggression.”

Former US Defense Secretary Esper’s Five-Point Plan for Taiwan to Deter China 

Katherine Walla | New Atlanticist

“In standing up for Ukraine, Esper said democratic countries are sending ‘all the right signals that we’re going to stand behind a fellow democracy’ like Taiwan. He hopes that as the world watches Western support and a powerful Ukrainian ‘fighting spirit’ continuing to blunt Russia’s invasion, Xi will stand down. ‘We want Xi Jinping to wake up every day and say, “You know, it’s not worth it, costs are too high, [so] I’m not going to make a move on Taiwan,”’ Esper explained.”

Why the US Navy Needs to Be in the South China Sea

James Holmes | 19FortyFive

“But again, the problem doesn’t stop with the South China Sea. If the international community shrugs and lets China get away with purloining this maritime space from its neighbors, there is no reason in principle why China can’t do the same in other expanses it craves, notably the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea. Nor is there any reason other malefactors can’t do it in waters they deem theirs—say, Iran in the Persian Gulf or Russia in the Black Sea or Arctic Ocean.”

Top Reads

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China, Russia and the West’s Crisis of Disbelief
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Russia Backs China’s Stance on Taiwan, Calling Pelosi’s Visit “Provocative”
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Sino-Russian Activities Near Japan Hint at More Aligned Military Cooperation
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China’s “Breathtaking” Nuclear Arms Push a Rising Challenge, Stratcom Chief Says
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Ukraine: American Public Opinion At The Sixth Month Mark
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Real Deterrence of China Will Be Uncomfortable
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