Putin's War Gambit Already Changing
the Middle East [Michael Doran]

"The war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the balance of power in the Middle East. The hardest thing to predict is the war’s impact on the Russian position in Syria.

Russian Victory in Ukraine Threatens Turkey, Israel
"If Russia manages to topple the Zelensky government, install a puppet government in its place, and take the entire Ukrainian Black Sea Coast down to Romania, then the Black Sea will become a Russian lake. The strategic bonds between the Russian naval bases in Sevastopol, Crimea and Tartus, Syria will grow even stronger. America’s allies, especially Turkey and Israel, will feel the hot breath of the Russian bear on the back of their necks.

Falling Short in Ukraine Affects Russia's Standing in Syria
"At present, however, the war is not going especially well for Moscow. If it ends with an expansion of the areas of Ukraine under Russian control but with the Russians failing to take and hold Odessa (which Moscow needs in order to turn Ukraine into a landlocked country) then Russia will still remain the single most influential military in Syria, but its prestige will have been diminished. Turkish and Israeli room for maneuver in Syria will likely increase, unless Russia decides to flex its muscles in Syria after falling short in Ukraine. Either way, the views of Moscow will still remain a major factor in the thinking of Ankara and Jerusalem.

"In the unlikely event that the war ends with the humiliation both of the Russian military and of President Vladimir Putin, then Russia will be severely weakened in Syria. The Israelis and Turks will likely have a freer hand, unless, again, Moscow seeks compensation for its weakness in Ukraine by pumping up its position in Syria. In this scenario, the Iranians might see an opportunity to increase their influence in Syria at Russia’s expense.

Turkey's Prestige Set to Increase
"Regardless of how the war ends for Russia, the prestige of Turkey is destined to increase. Militarily, Turkish equipment, especially the Bayraktar TB-2, an unmanned aerial vehicle, has yet again proven itself to be extremely effective against Russian equipment. In Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, and Donbas, Ankara gave Moscow reason to worry. Doubts remained however about whether Turkish equipment would fare as well in a direct contest with the Russian military. Those doubts will now dissipate.

Biden's Foreign Policy Must Reconcile its Contradictions on Iran
"The Ukraine war has revealed contradictions in the Biden administration’s worldview. On the one hand, for example, it expects allies such as Turkey and Israel to help it contain Russia in Ukraine. On the other hand, it is simultaneously working with Russia to arrive at an agreement with Iran on the nuclear question. In Syria, meanwhile, it shows no inclination to challenge the Russian or Iranian positions. In other words, Biden is managing a Cold War system in Europe while behaving in the Middle East as if Russia is a co-manager of a concert system. If Biden expects Middle Eastern allies to line up like loyal soldiers behind the United States in Ukraine, it must first arrive at a strategic accommodation with them in their neighborhood."

See More:

• Washington engages with Beijing and Moscow as if they share core U.S. interests with respect to Iran, when instead they are working with Tehran to undermine the American-led global order, write Michael Doran and Bryan Clark in The Wall Street Journal. 
   
• By hook or by crook, Putin aims to bring the countries of the former Soviet Union into some sort of formalized Russian sphere of interest. Azerbaijan's placement on the map, among other qualities, makes it a crucial partner for the U.S. in efforts to counterbalance Russia, writes Michael Doran in the Baku Dialogues.