5 Ways America's Response to Ukraine Could Embolden Russia and Iran in the Middle East

1: Failing to Deter Putin Emboldens Russia in the Middle East [Michael Doran]

"The United States never deterred Putin. This ‘success’ that we're having, if we can call it that, is primarily due to Putin’s miscalculations about the Russian military's capability rather than something that the United States did to the military. Now, the American and Western policy to supply Stingers and Javelins, and so on, definitely increased the pain that the Russians are feeling, but they were never deterred.

"For the neighbors of Russia that are not in NATO, I'm not sure that the big message they're going to get is that Putin was deterred here. If you're Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan, then what you learned from this experience is that Putin gets a ‘free hand’ if you're his neighbor and you're not in NATO.

"Some of those lessons pertain to Middle Eastern countries as well. Not all are convinced that the troubles Putin is having in Ukraine are permanent. I can imagine this being just like the Chechen wars. By which I mean that this is Ukraine War I...And then there'll be a lull. Putin will rebuild and then we will have the next Ukraine war until he brings that country pretty much entirely under his thumb."

2: Biden Expects Middle Eastern Allies to Both Partner with and Oppose Russia [Mike Doran]

"When the Russian-Iranian alliance arose in Syria, the United States was quite happy with it. And the worst thing that Barack Obama said at the time was that Vladimir Putin was 'in a quagmire.' But at the same time, today, the United States is strengthening the Russians and the Iranians by doing nothing to counter them in the Middle East.

"Maybe it's exaggeration to say 'the United States put Russia on Israel's border,' but we certainly did nothing to oppose it. Our policy forced Israel and Turkey to start working with Russia as we were working with it to try to stabilize the Middle East. But then suddenly in the midst of the Ukraine conflict, we turn around and say, 'Israel, you must now endanger your relationship with Russia in the Middle East.' But at the same time, we are not doing anything to actually help counter the Russians in the Middle East.

"Those contradictions exist in the American policy all across the world. The administration insists that every conflict we have with China or Russia is a discrete and separate issue with respect to anything else that's going on in the world.

3: US Attempts to Compartmentalize Geopolitics Weakens American Standing [Jonathan Schachter]

"As the United States intensifies its move away from the Middle East, [it is attempting to] compartmentalize these things geographically. But what the United States says and does in other arenas impacts what happens to U.S. relations and to U.S. partners and rivals in the Middle East.

"[The United States’] failure to deter Russia doesn't just influence Russia's immediate neighbors, it also influences their assessment of the United States in the Middle East. The withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the incredibly difficult position that it left U.S. partners and allies in, was undoubtedly noted by America's partners, allies, and enemies in the Middle East.

"These things are not as compartmentalized as some would prefer they be, I think these things all influence each other. As this is happening, we're also seeing is an increasing number of states hedging their bets."

4: Lessons from Ukraine for Russia’s War in Syria [Yaakov Amidror]

"We don't know yet how the Russians will act based on the experience that they are facing in Ukraine. On one side, they have to be more cautious. They understand their limitations and they understand what could be achieved and what cannot be achieved. But at the same time, [Russia's War in] Syria is a different situation. The Russians there are not facing any real opposition. The side that they're fighting against does not have the capacities that the Ukrainian forces have.

"[Russia] doesn't use boots on the ground [in Syria]. It's only air force and missiles from afar. After the experience of Ukraine, they will have to rethink what they want to achieve and how they want to position themselves in Syria. But there are so many differences between these situations, there is no specific lesson that can be adopted by the Russians. There are very few areas in which there are equivalent situations, forces, and challenges in Syria and in Ukraine." 

5: The Biden Administration Still Seeks to Treat Iran and China as a Partner [Mike Doran]

"The conflict with Russia and Ukraine doesn't extend to our relations with Russia in the Middle East. The conflict with China over Taiwan doesn't extend to the question of Ukraine. The Biden administration was in Beijing showing intelligence to the Chinese of the Russian build-up and asking them for help in moderating Putin.

"So here's the United States, the geostrategic rival of the Chinese, begging them for help to rein in Putin—even as these conflicts intensify, even as the cooperation rises between China-Russia and China-Russia-Iran. There's now a global alignment between China, Russia, and Iran to undermine the American order. Even as that comes into clear review, the United States insists on treating the globe as if we can have this understanding among the great powers together with the Iranians. That we can all stabilize things together. That simply doesn't work."

From the Hudson event, Reassessing America's Middle East Policy. Quotes have been edited for clarity and length. 

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