Following German Chancellor Olaf Scholz' meeting with President Joe Biden yesterday, below are five insights from a discussion between Hudson’s Peter Rough and German intellectuals Ulrich Speck, Ulrike Franke, and Liana Fix that shed light on Germany’s behavior regarding Ukraine.  

5 Insights Re: Germany Toward Ukraine, Russia

1. The German Foreign Policy Perspective [Ulrike Franke]

   • Diplomacy First: "German foreign policy really values diplomacy and dialogue. Basically, to any international problem the solution is always to say, 'We're going to sit down together, we're going to talk, we're going to have a diplomatic track.' Ideally, we'll use international law and institutions, the United Nations if we can, to do that.

   • Economic Power is Superior to Military Power: "Sixty-two percent of Germans believe that in international crises, economic power is more important than military power. There's this very strong narrative that throughout the Cold War, Germany kept links with the Soviet Union with gas pipelines, things like that. And so there really is this belief that A, if you have economic power, you are strong and you can maybe use that. And B, if you have economic ties with others, you will be able to find solutions without disputes and conflicts.

   • German History of War with Russia: "There's a general rejection of all things military. Annalena Baerbock has said, 'Our rejection of delivering weapons is rooted in our history.' And it even goes so far that just mentioning the military and invoking warfare is seen as negative. We're now saying you shouldn't even talk about these things, shouldn't even mention these things, because then they may become a reality."
      

2. Scholz Stands in Merkel’s Shadow [Ulrich Speck]

   "Scholz has spent his whole career in domestic policy. He is very convinced of the value of NATO, he's just not as familiar with the East as Merkel has been. So Merkel, in this regard, has been an exception with all her background, her knowledge of the Russian language, her background in Eastern Germany. That allowed her to play a real leadership role in Europe in 2014, '15, during the first big Ukraine crisis. It's early and Scholz is getting into diplomatic gear. He may grow into that role far more than what we are seeing now."
    

3. Germany Fears Triggering a New Cold War [Speck]

   "At the end of the Cold War, there was the feeling of gratitude that Gorbachev agreed to German unification and that they removed their troops from East Germany. Until 1994, there were Soviet troops in Eastern Germany. And ever since then, Germany, the chancellors, the government, the political class, is very keen to keep this new relationship on track. When you talk to Germans about a new Cold War with Russia, it's exactly what they want to get away from. And I think ultimately what is grounds is some kind of fear." 
    

4. Russia Is Not Perceived as a Threat [Liana Fix]

   "There's not a big threat perception in Germany when it comes to Russia. Forty-nine percent of Germans [who were polled] said that Russia is only a minor threat and thirty-three percent said that Russia is no threat at all. If you put this together, it's eighty-two percent saying Russia is only a minor or no threat at all. But this looks very different from Eastern European countries and the U.S. perspective. The Pew Research Center asked the same question in the United States and there, fifty-four percent of Americans do see Russia as a threat. There was a difference in threat perceptions.

   And there, we constantly over many years, see that east Germans, as well as the older generation, is friendlier towards Russia. They see Russia is more important. They consider Russia to be less of a threat, whereas West Germans and the younger generation have, let's say, a sober approach towards Russia."
    

5. Strong German Economic Bonds with Russia [Speck]
   
   "In the last 20 years Germany invested in Russia economically and could be part of the modernization transformation effort [similar to] the U.S. with China. You had the impression that you could change the system politically. I think that time is over, our economic bonds with China and Russia are not necessarily in our political interest anymore. This is how Germany's Nord Stream 2 pipeline becomes a problem. Now all of these economic relationships are becoming geopolitically problematic and [Germany has to] revise its attitude towards Russia and China. That's a big, big process of reorientation. It takes a lot of time. Merkel was unwilling at the end to do it, even if she was tough on Russia from time to time. But she didn't really change this overall relationship. So I think this realization that we have to accept tensions with Russia, that's a big for the German mentality."
   
   Quotations have been edited for length and clarity.

See More:

• Without firing a shot, Vladimir Putin has attacked the transatlantic alliance at its weakest link: Germany. In the Wall Street Journal, Peter Rough outlines how the Biden administration and German Chancellor Scholz can prevent Putin from driving a wedge between Germany and other NATO members.
• Peter Rough convened German foreign policy experts Ulrich Speck, Ulrike Franke, and Liana Fix for a discussion on the roots of German foreign policy in light of the Ukraine crisis.
• With a Russian invasion seemingly imminent, Ukrainians have prepared for war while maintaining as much normalcy as possible. Join Peter Rough this Thursday as he explores the prospects for Ukraine, its strategy going forward, and the perspective on the ground with three Kyiv-based analysts.