As Putin signals his willingness to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Hudson experts weigh in on the dangers of Putin’s evolving strategy and how the U.S. and its allies should respond.

The Strategic Implications Re: Putin's Nuclear Threat

1:  Concerning Developments in Putin's Strategy [William Schneider]

• Russia May Reduce Ukraine to Rubble: "Russia’s logistics problems have been magnified by the extensive mud for which Ukraine is renowned. This circumstance has forced Russian forces to be road-bound enabling ambushes by Ukraine forces equipped with Javelin and other anti-armor systems.  The policy reversal among the major military powers of Europe who are now willing to supply anti-armor and air defense equipment can substantially increase the vulnerability of Russian forces if the equipment can be delivered successfully and operated effectively by their forces.
  
  "If Russia is unable to capture Ukraine’s major urban industrial centers (e.g., Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, etc.), it will be left with very unattractive options—‘rubblizing’ these areas of Ukraine with massive conventional tube and rocket artillery as Russia did in Chechnya in the 1990s. As the tactical situation in Ukraine does not offer attractive options for the use of nuclear weapons, these weapons could be attractive if Russia chooses to “rubblize” Ukraine." 
   
• Putin's Shifting Command-and-Control Structure is a Cause for Concern:  "Russia has modernized its nuclear command-and-control apparatus which has in turn raised concerns about whether President Putin may have moved his leadership staff to the new nuclear command center. Speculation about the mental health of Putin has also intensified following remarks made by Senator Rubio (and others) who were briefed over the weekend on President Putin’s mental health based on sensitive U.S. intelligence. This has placed Russia’s command-and-control processes for the use of nuclear weapons at the center of concern. Last week, Putin warned that "whoever tries to hinder us" in Ukraine would see consequences "you have never seen in your history"–a threat that implied a readiness (under unspecified circumstances) to initiate first use of nuclear weapons."
   
• Chance of Nuclear Attack on Ukraine?: "The use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine theater of operations remains unlikely since Russia has overwhelming conventional predominance. Ukraine's armed forces are relatively small and are supplemented by reserve, militia, and paramilitary forces that do not present lucrative nuclear targets as massed forces military formations."

2: How the U.S. Can Help Ukrainian Troops and Undermine Russian Forces [Bryan Clark]

• Employ Electronic Warfare: "U.S. Air Force EC-130 Compass Call aircraft, U.S. Army MQ-1 Gray Eagle UAVs, and  MV-22 Ospreys carrying Marine Corps Intrepid Tiger electronic attack pods flying in Polish or Romanian airspace could use their electronic attack systems to disrupt Russian communications in western and southern Ukraine. These systems could also be employed against Russian naval forces on the Black Sea to disrupt their ability to coordinate amphibious operations against the Ukrainian coast west of Crimea."
   
• Increase Naval Operations: "Before the invasion, U.S. Navy ships exited the Black Sea and now Russian warships have established maritime superiority along the coast of Ukraine. However, NATO allies Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria also border the Black Sea and should benefit from a stepped up U.S. posture like Poland and the Baltics to the north. The Black Sea is international waters and as soon as Turkey restores access to the Black Sea the U.S. Navy should return to protect NATO allies and freedom of navigation while constraining Russian options for expanded aggression. In the meantime, the U.S. should support the navies of Black Sea NATO allies using US P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and MQ-4C Triton UAVs operating from Romania or Bulgaria."
   
• Expand Cyber Operations: "The Russian military’s logistics are not keeping up with its maneuver units, slowing the Russian advance. The U.S. could further degrade Russian troops’ support by disrupting the computer networks used to manage supply inventories and movements from depots. These networks are unlikely to be as well-protected as Russian operational networks and would not be as escalatory as attacking Russian command-and-control directly."
   
• Use High-Powered Microwave Technology: "Russian forces bogged down attempting to reach Ukrainian cities would be vulnerable targets for high-powered microwave attack, which damages electronics such as navigation systems, radios, and sensors. The U.S. should send UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper or expendable target drones such as the RQ-58 Valkyrie into Ukrainian airspace carrying a high-power microwave payload like that on the Air Force CHAMP missile to attack Russian electronic systems."

3: How the U.S. Can Strengthen Its Nuclear Deterrent in the Face of Russian Threats [Rebeccah Heinrichs]

• Signal U.S. Resolve: "In response to Putin’s nuclear saber rattling, the Pentagon has said it 'is comfortable with the strategic deterrent posture of the United States.' To demonstrate resolve to deter Putin from strategic attack and to assure allies, President Biden should issue a statement that says Putin's rhetoric is dangerous, he should return to diplomacy, and that the United States’ strategic posture stands ready to defend Americans and allies."
   
• Continue NATO Exercises: "A NATO military exercise at this time would be a significant signal and the U.S. should consider increasing the tempo of its B-52 strategic bomber exercises to NATO countries."
   
• ​​​​Develop the SLCM-N: "The development of the Sea Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear (SLCM-N), which previous administrations cited as necessary to strengthen U.S. credibility on deterring Russia, has been eschewed by the Biden administration. The Pentagon should announce its intent to pursue this vital weapon to signal their commitment to a credible, modern deterrent and that they are taking the Russian nuclear threat seriously."