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Russia Remains an Acute Threat, Ukraine a Strong Ally
The Russian Federation continues to pose an acute threat to the United States and its interests. Moscow launched a war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022 to subjugate Kyiv, break the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and undermine US power in Europe. President Vladimir Putin is pursuing these aims today through an array of offensives. Russia engages in hybrid warfare and regional aggression throughout Europe, including against NATO allies. It conducts cyberattacks, subverts infrastructure, and targets democratic societies by undermining elections and fraying institutional trust. Russia possesses advanced weaponry and uses its nuclear arsenal as a tool to implement revanchist national objectives. Supporting Ukraine so that it can weaken Russia is therefore in US interests.
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has devolved into a highly lethal war of attrition. Ukraine thwarted Russia’s attempt to conquer Kyiv and successfully prevented Moscow from fully taking the heavily fortified Ukrainian Donbas oblasts. Ukraine continues to innovate and adapt its drone technology, and it now possesses battlefield techniques and strategies that are indispensable to the US and its allies. With sea and aerial drones, Ukraine has initiated an offensive campaign that is degrading Russia’s military and its war-supporting industries. Through various drone deals with Kyiv, the United States and other Western nations will benefit from Ukraine’s expertise and capabilities. These advancements will make NATO stronger and enable Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war on terms that benefit both Kyiv and Washington.
“Coming out of the NATO summit. . . it was exciting that there was such a coalescing around such important issues. . . . [There was] one of the strongest statements on Ukraine that the [Trump] administration has ever stated. . . . This was not only a summit where NATO accomplished a great deal, but other nations felt the need to come there and make announcements and do deals. . . . Russia is developing and fielding anti-satellite weapon systems. . . . They are fielding new nuclear weapons that are intent on attacking the United States. . . . On a cyber basis, every day, Russia is attacking the United States—our infrastructure systems, our military, our allies. They are poised and focused every day on ways in which they can attack and diminish the United States and our reach. They are a self-identified adversary, and we have to be prepared for the fact that, every day that they are doing that, we have to defend ourselves.”
— Mike Turner
US House of Representatives
“The Russians are a major acute threat to the United States across the planet. . . . Russia’s number one goal in Europe is to break NATO; they want the United States out of Europe. Ukraine is massively important for that goal, and so the Russians want to subjugate all of Ukraine. . . . We are actually at a point where Trump could, if he would get clearly on the side of Ukraine and stop asking Ukraine to concede territory, but instead turn up the sanctions on Russia and ensure that Ukraine has Patriot interceptors, . . . you could actually compel a ceasefire. . . . From my perspective, the Chinese are more likely to act aggressively in Asia if the Russians. . . act in such a way that would cause more of NATO to get involved. Create a massive problem in Europe and then you have opportunistic aggression in Asia. . . . If you believe that China’s the number one threat, which I do, our better chance of deterring Chinese aggression in Asia is actually to contain and deter further Russian aggression in Europe.”
— Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
Director, Keystone Defense Initiative
Hudson Highlights
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | National Review
“First, Ukraine is winning. In recent weeks, the nation struck more than 1,500 miles deep into Russian territory with attacks on oil refineries in Siberia and Moscow. Ukraine has also successfully targeted Crimean bridges and energy infrastructure, which fund the war. Last month, the Ukrainian military liberated more Ukrainian territory than Russia seized. . . . Second, Ukraine has proven itself a net contributor to the strength and security of the US-led West. Ukraine has received air defenses, guided bombs, medium- and long-range strike missiles, and other weapons. Ukrainians have adapted the way they use them, have improved the missiles’ technology, and have made Ukraine a coveted location for Western arms producers to test their weapons and tactics. . . . Third, the Russian economy is veering toward crisis. Russia’s budget deficit skyrocketed in the first four months of 2026. . . . Russia is facing a wave of corporate defaults and increased risk for consumer lending and bonds, along with a 5.52 percent inflation rate. . . . The United States should lead our allies to increase the pain against Russia now and sharply to make it clear: things will only get worse for Russia, and Putin should take the deal.”
Can Kasapoğlu | Atlantic Council
“Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) therefore depend on the same ecosystem that powers Kyiv’s wider digital war effort: resilient connectivity, drone feeds, commercial satellite services, AI-enabled targeting support, rapid software adaptation, and accelerated feedback loops between frontline units and private developers. . . . Without a major fleet of its own, . . . [Ukraine] has broken the aggressor’s grip over waters. Roughly 30 percent of Russia’s combat assets, centered on the Black Sea Fleet, had been destroyed or badly damaged. . . . Ukraine’s merger of algorithmic warfare and robotic naval warfare carries direct implications for NATO. . . . The Armed Forces of Ukraine have accumulated millions of annotated images through tens of thousands of missions. Ukraine is now poised to become the first nation to formalize a military data-sharing arrangement. . . . Kyiv’s partners will receive controlled access to battlefield datasets to train AI-enabled systems. . . . No exercise or simulation can reproduce this depth of real-world combat data, especially in an era shaped by drone warfare and AI-enabled battle networks. If used effectively, it can accelerate high-tempo warfighting capabilities, shorten learning cycles, and improve operational readiness across the Alliance.”
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | The Daily Wire
“In contrast to the opening meeting in Ankara, yesterday was a good—even excellent—day for President Donald Trump and NATO. And that means a bad day for Russia’s warmongering Vladimir Putin. . . . European NATO nations have also stepped up and strengthened support for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, easing the US’s burden. Trump agreed yesterday to authorize a license for Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors, giving Ukraine the ability to restore its critical air defense in light of increased Russian attacks on Kyiv—a huge boost for the country. The authorization not only strengthens Ukraine’s war effort but also expands Patriot production for the United States following a period of rapid depletion in the war against Iran. Outside of the US authorization, Ukraine managed to reach nine drone deals total with various European allies as well as Gulf partners as efforts to increase assistance and cooperation continue to develop. Allies further reaffirmed their united support with a pledge to provide at least 70 billion euros in military equipment, aid, and training for Ukraine this year and again next year.”
Key Insights
John Ratcliffe | Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit
“Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine: the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes. That’s because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines. And it’s why we’re now four and a half years into that conflict. The takeaway is that the mastery of technology, and these emerging technologies, is every bit as important as military strength. That’s why an inferior force, four and a half years later, has held off the superior force of Russia. . . . Right now, Russia occupies 20 percent of Ukraine. When I came in as CIA director 18 months ago, Russia occupied 19 percent of Ukraine. . . . So, the pace of their advance has stopped as Ukraine’s mastery of emerging technologies—in this case drone warfare, asymmetric warfare—is such a great equalizer.”
Dave McCormick | US Senate
“The tide is turning against Vladimir Putin. For more than four years, Russia has waged a brutal, unprovoked war of aggression against a free and sovereign Ukraine. Putin bet that Kyiv would fall in days. He bet that the West would fracture in response. And when that didn’t work, he bet that Ukraine would break in a few months. He was wrong on every count. . . . Now is the time for America to lean into this strategic opportunity and to drive Putin’s war machine into the ground. . . . The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the war’s momentum is shifting in Ukraine’s favor, that Russia’s spring and summer offensive has stalled, and that Russia cannot recruit soldiers fast enough to replace its losses—losses that are estimated to be between 30,000 to 40,000 per month. Since President Trump returned to office in 2025, Russia has suffered approximately 130 casualties for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory gained. . . . Ukrainian drone operators now dominate the battlefield, extending the kill zone more than 10 miles beyond the frontlines. Ukraine has built, under fire, one of the most sophisticated defense technology sectors in the world. Ukraine produced over 3.5 million drones last year and is now deploying more than 10,000 drones daily.”
Marco Rubio | US Department of State
“I think it’s a very bloody war. I think Russia is now suffering strikes deep in their territory. That’s something you didn’t see. . . . I’ve been told it’s the only conflict that anyone in the military can recall where the killed-in-action rate is higher than the casualty rate. That’s how bloody it is. The Russians, I believe, are losing upwards of five to six thousand soldiers a week. That’s a staggering number. . . . We sell arms via PURL [Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List], which is an initiative we have through NATO. And that’s what we’re involved in. There’s been no change to our policy in that regard. But we want a peace deal; we want the war to end. We’re prepared to play whatever positive role we can to end the war. . . . We’ve invested in the past in it. It was unsuccessful or at least unfruitful at the time. If conditions and factors have changed to make that possible, we’re ready to go. The president’s committed to that. And every single day—if we identify an opportunity to make a difference in that, we will. Because in the end, what the president most cares about is not the stuff people are—well, here’s what he most cares about: that people stop dying, that people stop being slaughtered, that Ukraine can go on and live in peace and Ukrainians can move back to their country and rebuild it, that young Russians aren’t being killed at the tune of 5,000 a week in the battlefield.”
Top Reads
Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War
Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe | Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Ankara Summit Declaration
2026 Ankara NATO Summit
Ukraine Is Winning. Here’s What It Needs to Finish the Job.
Leslie Shedd | Atlantic Council
US-Made F-16 Helps Ukraine Take Out Russian Su-35 Fighter Jet for First Time During War
Ronny Reyes | New York Post
Ukraine Carries Out First Ever Robotic Amphibious Assault
David Hambling | Forbes
Ukraine Escalates Air War with Deadly Strikes on Russia’s “Amazon”
Matthew Luxmoore | Wall Street Journal
Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone
Mariano Zafra, Mike Collett-White, Tom Balmforth, and Max Hunder | Reuters
