5 Insights Re: the Black Sea's Role in a Russian Invasion of Ukraine

1: Amphibious Attack via Black Sea Coast to Choke Off Ukraine’s Economy [Peter Rough]:

"Sharp military analysts, like the Turkish observer Can Kasapoğlu, have speculated that Russia’s main military assault on Ukraine will consist of an amphibious attack against its Black Sea coastline. This is because the Black Sea constitutes Ukraine’s economic artery to the outside word. More than two-thirds of its exports and imports go by sea with the city of Odessa, the country’s third largest metropolitan area, serving as the port of entry and exit for the vast majority of those goods. If Odessa falls, so the thinking goes, the government in Kyiv will not be far behind.

"This makes Russia’s pretext of large-scale military exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov so disconcerting. As the Ukrainian foreign ministry recently put it, Russia’s navy has made 'navigation in both seas virtually impossible.' President Biden may be watching for 'any assembled Russian units [to] move across the Ukrainian border' before levying sanctions on Russia, but Moscow’s blockade of Ukraine (among other measures) is already an act of economic warfare. Russia’s aggression has caused the Ukrainian hryvnia to slump to seven-year lows, draining Ukraine’s reserves, while the price of crude oil has soared to seven-year highs, promising a windfall for Putin. If Russia manages to permanently block Ukraine from the Black Sea, it will have turned an industrial economy into an landlocked basket case. At that point, it becomes far easier prey."

2: Black Sea Dominance Strengthens Russia’s Hand Beyond Ukraine  [Michael Doran]:

"Let me give you a very bleak scenario. And that is that the Russians move in and they take the entire coast of the Black Sea all the way down to Odessa. And we find ourselves with Russian troops right up against Romania. And as a result of this, the Russian position in the Black Sea becomes that much stronger. Russia's capacity for bullying Georgia becomes that much stronger. The Russian position in Syria becomes that much stronger because of the direct military connection, like an umbilical cord running from Crimea down to Latakia. And then if you're sitting in Ankara, you've got Russian forces in Armenia, you've got empowered Russian forces just to your north in Ukraine in the Black Sea, and you've got Russian forces in Syria."

3: The Black Sea Offers Putin Maximum Leverage [Bryan Clark]:

From Putin's perspective, there are multiple paths he can choose. [An attack or invasion via the Black Sea is an example of] decision-centric warfare where he essentially creates a lot of options for Russia geographically as well as on the escalation ladder, and then he can start executing those options and still have the ability to swing to another option if the first option seems like it's not bearing fruit. It really puts the West in this dilemma of having to prepare for a lot of different courses of action that Moscow could pursue, so we kind of dilute our effort, or we even create efforts that are at odds with one another. 

4: Turkey’s Strategic Role in Deterring Russia [Rich Outzen]:

"Turkey's role in the current great power competition is as the ultimate buffer zone. To have a strategically semi-non-aligned grouping of states that don't want Russia to come in and fill spaces that frankly the United States doesn't care enough to fight over. In many cases, I think is a very valuable role. And by the way, it's performing this role in Africa, as well many places where the United States is not engaging and Turkey is engaging, and that can be a hedge against Chinese hegemony and control of that area as well. 

"One of the reasons Turkey is so close to Ukraine is because Ukraine's defense industry is very good at engines, both for UAVs and helicopters and potentially for jets of this type. So Ukraine as a technical defense technology partner is critical for Turkey weaning off its dependence on the U.S. for these sorts of things."

5: Turkey's Complex Relationship with Russia and Ukraine [Sinan Ülgen]:

"Turkey has a particularly complex, often difficult relationship with Russia. But at the same time, this relationship matters to Turkey on different levels. Firstly, on a diplomatic level, Turkey has learned to work with Russia in different theaters and particularly in Syria. With the Astana Process, Russia is a critical partner in trying to manage the very difficult situation in Idlib. Then there is also Nagorno-Karabakh, where Ankara and Russia ultimately work together. So Turkey does not want to undermine these other areas of diplomatic engagement with Russia by being seen as siding firmly and exclusively with Ukraine.

"But the opposite is also true. Namely, Turkey has also a burgeoning relationship with Ukraine that has been carried by the defense industry dynamic. There's burgeoning cooperation there. Turkey has been selling arm drones to Ukraine. And President Erdogan confirmed that Turkey would continue to do that."

See More:

• To watch the full video quoted above, see the Hudson event "Turkey’s Role in the Ukraine Crisis." Hudson's Michael Doran was joined by Rich Outzen, Sinan Ülgen, and Svante Cornell to discuss the Black Sea's pivotal role if Ukraine-Russia tensions escalate.
   
• On the latest episode of Counterbalance, Hudson's Bryan Clark joins Michael Doran and Marshall Kosloff to discuss Putin’s Ukraine strategy as an effective example of “decision-centric warfare” and what the U.S. can learn from the Russian military’s reformed force-structure.
   
• Congressman Mike Turner (R-OH), a prominent voice in the U.S. House of Representatives on defense policy and transatlantic security issues, offered his perspectives on the Ukraine crisis in a conversation with Kenneth Weinstein, Hudson's Walter P. Stern distinguished fellow.