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A key political meeting in China this week will see the release of more details on the country’s next five-year strategy, amidst a turbulent international outlook.
The gathering, known as “The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee” gives the Chinese leader the opportunity to showcase China’s tightly-held style of central economic planning, and comes just days before a planned meeting with Donald Trump on the sidelines of an international summit in South Korea.
The plenum will be closely monitored by outsiders for clues about the inner workings of China’s opaque ruling Communist Party, although most foreign journalists never gain access.
Inside China , the official Xinhua News Agency claimed “ History is writing a new chapter”, as the Plenum got underway.
“The meeting will review the "Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," which will lay out a blueprint for China's development over the next five years “ said Xinhua.
At the heart of the plenum’s agenda is China’s economic performance.
China’s economy in 2025 is showing resilience but remains under significant strain.
Official growth is around 5%, buoyed by manufacturing and exports, yet domestic demand is weak and consumer confidence low.
The property sector remains a major drag, with real estate investment and home sales continuing to contract. But despite government stimulus and industrial support, private investment and household spending have not recovered meaningfully.
Various structural headwinds, including an aging population, high local government debt, and slowing productivity—are keeping the dampeners on.
The outlook suggests a gradual slowdown, with GDP growth predicted to dip below 5% in 2026.
Against this sluggish background, the CCP is expected to again emphasise its goal of “high-quality development.”( (高质量发展) This includes a concentration on technological innovation, green transformation, and industrial upgrading over traditional, investment-driven expansion.
The goal is to avoid wasteful investment and reduce dependence on debt and resource-intensive industries.
Analysts also expect a strong focus on China’s technological self-reliance, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing, reflecting Beijing’s goal to break away from U.S. tariffs and export controls, as well as perceived global supply chain vulnerabilities.
The plenum will very probably also emphasise the “dual circulation” model, which prioritises domestic consumption and self-sufficiency while maintaining selected and strategic international economic ties.
The meeting also holds major implications for governance and political consolidation.
Observers expect the meeting to usher in several senior personnel reshuffles, following a recent wave of purges and disciplinary actions within both the party and the military. Such moves will underscore Xi’s secure grip on power and the CCP’s emphasis on party discipline.
Amid an unpredictable climate of regional tensions, stoked at times by an increasingly erratic tone from Washington, the plenum also serves as a venue to integrate China’s economic planning with national security imperatives.
The CCP will of course continue to project an image of stability, resilience, and self-reliance, despite the econimic headwinds.
While few dramatic announcements are expected, the Fourth Plenum will set the tone for China’s next policy period - and expectations for future success under the leadership of Xi Jinping.
-Asia Media Centre
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