What Russia’s Retreat from Snake Island Means

With Russia recently withdrawing from Snake Island, below is Hudson Senior Fellow Luke Coffey’s takes on what this development means for Ukraine:

1. Snake Island Is in a Strategic Location

Snake Island is smallish island located a mere 20 miles away from its closest point to the Ukrainian mainland. It is in a strategic location in the Black Sea. Russia captured it early in the invasion and held it until June 30. In recent weeks, it has come under intense attack from indirect fire and armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), mainly Turkish-made Baykar Bayraktar TB2s. This likely made the island uninhabitable for the Russian occupiers. Moscow probably decided that the juice was not worth the squeeze.

2. Russia’s Retreat Is a Morale Booster

Symbolically, Snake Island has a special spot in the hearts of Ukrainians. It was the site early in the invasion when the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian garrison told a Russian warship to “go f*** yourself” when asked to surrender. (That ship was the Moskva, which Ukraine sank in April.) The Ukrainian flag flying on Snake Island again will be good news after the fall of Sievierodonetsk.

3. The Retreat Will Give More Options for Grain Exports or a Convoy

Russian control of Snake Island limited options for finding ways to get Ukraine’s grain to the global markets. While doing so is still a herculean task, Russia’s retreat from the island will make it a little bit easier.

4. Odesa Is More Secure

Under the control of Russia, Snake Island was a sword of Damocles hanging over Odesa. Without Russian control of the island, a seaborne attack targeting Odesa is less likely and probably not feasible from a military standpoint without the Russians incurring great risk.

5. Budjak and Moldova Are More Secure 

In recent months many feared a Russian amphibious landing in Budjak. This area of Ukraine is in the country’s southwest and borders Romania and Moldova, but it is only connected to the rest of Ukraine by one small regional road with a bridge. (Russia has repeatedly attacked this bridge with missiles.) Snake Island is just off the coast. Moldova's autonomous Gagauzia region borders Budjak. This ethnically Turkic, Orthodox Christian, and Russian-speaking region has close links to Moscow and is pro-Russian. Russian domination of Budjak, in addition to Russia’s military presence in Transnistria (a Russian-occupied region in Moldova), would put Moscow in control of a sizeable stretch of Ukraine’s western border. This would threaten the stability of Odesa.

Go Deeper

Last week William Schneider, Peter Rough, Bryan Clark, and Michael Doran spoke about how the United States can help break Russia’s blockade of Ukraine. 

Hudson also hosted an event with David Asher, Rebeccah Heinrichs, William Schneider, Bryan Clark, and Kenneth Weinstein about what might happen if Vladimir Putin wins in Ukraine. 

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