Please note that the author of the NIPP essay "Russia and Missile Defense: Toward An Integrated Approach" has been corrected to Dr. Peppino DeBiasio.
Happy New Year and welcome to the first edition of the Keystone Defense Initiative's 2022 Newsletter.
The Biden Administration's Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review are expected in the coming weeks, at a time when the threat landscape continues to deteriorate: China is in the midst of a massive nuclear expansion while threatening Taiwan; Russian officials are issuing not-so-veiled threats while signaling a potential military invasion of sovereign Ukraine; North Korea has resumed missile tests, and Iran nuclear talks are cratering.
President Biden's hopes for nuclear policy changes or slowing modernization look unlikely to materialize. Following through on the nuclear modernization plans, along with the regional and homeland missile defense that defense planners called for several years ago, should be a baseline. The speed at which adversaries are developing weapon systems and threatening aggression demands that the U.S. shift to testing and deployment as soon as possible. A strong deterrent will reinforce the effectiveness of U.S. diplomacy and allied cooperation—the time for decisive bipartisan action is now.
-Rebeccah Heinrichs, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Our Latest
China’s Coercive Missile Strategy and the US Response
Hudson Event
"China's breathtaking expansion of their nuclear program is inconsistent with a commitment to Article 6 of the [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty]. Obviously, they are in an arms race. Both Russia and China are pursuing theatre-range nuclear systems at the ultra low yield level that is designed to be employed in warfare."
Dr. Christopher Yeaw
The People’s Republic of China is making aggressive advances in both conventional and nuclear military weapons technology, and recently surprised analysts with a globe-spanning hypersonic weapon. How should the U.S. respond to this threat? Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs moderated a discussion with Dr. Mark Lewis, Dr. Christopher Yeaw, and Hudson Fellow Timothy A. Walton on China’s coercive missile strategy and what they hope to see in the forthcoming National Defense Strategy.
KDI Quotes
A collection of key quotes on strategic deterrence from prominent voices in our community
The Honorable Michael R. Pompeo
"Nuclear Weapons, China, and a Strategic Defense Initiative for this Century" | National Interest
"Though nuclear war is unconscionable, we must grasp, as Herman Kahn did, many decades ago, that it is our preparedness for conflict that substantiates deterrence."
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer
"The U.N.’s Delusional Declaration on Nuclear Weapons" | National Review
"A statement on nuclear-weapon restraint isn’t historic if those who agree to it don’t intend to honor it."
Dr. Peppino DeBiaso
“Russia and Missile Defense: Toward An Integrated Approach” | NIPP
“In the decades following the ABM Treaty, Moscow continued its pursuit of these goals through the further development of nationwide integrated air and missile defenses—including deployment of a prohibited missile defense radar at Krasnoyarsk—that should have been all but abandoned under a stable regime of mutual deterrence.”
Aaron MacLean
“What Putin, Xi and Khamenei Want” | The Wall Street Journal
"The principal error is thinking that men like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Ali Khamenei want what most Westerners want. They don’t."
Henry "Trey" Obering III and Rebeccah Heinrichs
"President Biden, Don’t Trade Away Missile Defense With the Russians" | Dallas Morning News
"Throughout his career Joe Biden has opposed U.S. missile defense, and now that he is president, he could trade our defenses in a deal with the Russians. That would be a dangerous mistake."
Dr. Christopher Yeaw
"To Deter China, Invest in Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons" | RealClear Defense
"The U.S. has suddenly awoken to the realization that it is in the unenviable situation of facing two nuclear-armed peer competitors who have positioned themselves favorably regarding the net nuclear balance and are looking to exploit that for strategic gains."
Heritage Foundation Event
U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy and the Future of Extended Deterrence
“Extending deterrence is vital to the security of Japan and the peace in the region. If there’s any move by the United States sending out the wrong signal, it might weaken the extended deterrence or even the trust.”
-The Hon. Taro Kono, Japan House of Representatives, Former Minister of Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs
“We have prevented any such attack in all of the years since the second World War largely because of the nature of the nuclear umbrella…that has provided a degree of stability and safety that is extremely important. And it’s because we’ve all agreed in NATO on that fact. So this is an alliance policy. All the countries in the alliances are committed…so any move to end that ambiguity or suggest a change in the nuclear posture would be hugely damaging to NATO and NATO unity at a very difficult point in history.”
-Lord George Robertson, Former UK Defence Secretary and former Secretary General of NATO
Top Reads
The West Has a Few Bargaining Chips To Stop Russia From Invading Ukraine
Ellen Ioanes | Vox
Yearlong CR Would ‘Irreversibly Delay’ Nuclear Modernization Programs: Service Chiefs
Valerie Insinna & Andrew Eversden| Breaking Defense
One of the US Navy's Most Powerful Weapons Makes a Rare Appearance in Guam
Brad Lendon | CNN
China, Iran Begin Implementation of Sweeping Strategic Agreement
Agence France-Presse | VOA
