As Russia's assault on Ukraine intensifies, Vladimir Putin has escalated his nuclear threats in an effort to dissuade global efforts to aid Ukraine. Rather than allow Putin's nuclear coercion to be effective, decisionmakers should use this moment to reexamine the critical role of U.S. nuclear deterrence: to deter unjust aggression and preserve peace. Below, we've highlighted recommendations and key insights on how the U.S. can signal its resolve through strategic deterrence.
-Rebeccah Heinrichs
Director of KDI & Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Hudson Highlights
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | Fox News
Many Americans are fearful of that a Russian nuclear weapon might land in an American city. But that is not the most realistic kind of nuclear threat Putin is making at this time. Russia has invested in thousands of shorter-range and relatively lower yield nuclear weapons that are completely unbound by treaty that it could conceivably employ in theater. We must focus on compelling Putin to cease his aggression and deter him from escalating the situation to the point of crossing the nuclear threshold.
Bryan Clark | New York Post
For those paying attention China and Russia's worrying advances in hypersonic weaponry, the news that the Pentagon is pushing U.S. defense companies to hasten their own progress on hypersonic weapons is a welcome development. The race must now be on to catch up, or risk ceding the advantage to America’s adversaries.
Walter Russell Mead | The Wall Street Journal
Putin is unlikely to give up his ambitions in Ukraine, much less his power in Moscow, without giving repression every chance to succeed. Would he rebuild the Gulag Archipelago and re-create the terror through which Stalin ruled Ukraine? If the alternative is to flee Moscow in disgrace and pass the remaining years of his life as a state pensioner in China, he will almost certainly move in that direction.
Peter Rough | New York Post
In Ukraine, Putin is operating on two ticking clocks: One measures the progress of his military operation; the other tracks the flow of Western support. The next phase of Russia’s offensive will be far bloodier than Putin's opening salvo. On Sunday, he ordered his nuclear forces on high alert while deploying artillery to Belarus’ border with Poland.
Key Insights
Admiral Charles A. Richard, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, responds to questions from Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) on the need to adapt the U.S. nuclear deterrent during a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on March 8, 2022.
“We’ve watched Russia modernize its nuclear weapons. Now, what we call 'modernizing' is replacing the old with one that’s not old. [What the Russians] call modernizing is increasing their capabilities.
"They have deployed hypersonic nuclear weapons. They have developed Skyfall, a nuclear-powered missile that orbits the earth. They’ve developed them and announced their work on Poseidon, which is basically an underwater unmanned vehicle that pops up and destroys an American city off the coast. All which are untrackable, undefendable. And there’s no effort either on Russia’s part or really on our part for Russia to be dissuaded or deterred from undertaking those. Every day that Russia advances, we become less safe.”
Congressman Mike Turner (R-OH)
Caitlin Talmadge | Washington Post
“Putin has turned to nuclear weapons because they offer another way to increase pressure on both Ukraine and its international backers to come to the settlement that Russia wants regarding Ukraine’s status. Yet his decision raises serious risks of both deliberate and inadvertent nuclear escalation.”
Joshua Treviño | Armas
“At a historical moment demanding American clarity and purpose, the Presidency and its apparatus communicate lassitude, pettiness, and indecision. Bewildered by the foreseeable consequences of its own actions, it lashes out at those who make the mistake of trying to cooperate with it, and demands that others rescue it from the outcomes.”
Michaela Dodge | National Institute for Public Policy
“Russia’s influence operations in allied countries are aimed at advancing Russia’s interests, which are fundamentally incompatible with U.S. goals. To understand how the Russian Federation operates, the United States must not only better understand Russia’s influence operations, but also the modalities of the environment in which Russia conducts its business."
Top Reads
The War in Ukraine: Christian Realism vs Cynicism and Idealism
Mark Tooley | Providence Magazine
Putin Puts World on Alert with High-Stakes Nuclear Posturing
Demetri Sevastopulo and Akila Quinio | Financial Times
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
To Decipher Putin’s Nuclear Threats, Watch What He Says
Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, & Alyxandra Marine | Atlantic Council
Putin Reminds Biden That Nuclear Deterrence Works
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Pentagon Says North Korea Testing New Missiles in ‘Serious Escalation’
Matthew Loh | Business Insider
Biden on Verge of Making Worst Deal Ever with Iran
Richard Goldberg | New York Post
Putin’s Dangerous Nuclear Brinkmanship in Ukraine
Patty-Jane Geller | Heritage Foundation
Would Putin Use Nuclear Weapons?
Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig | Foreign Policy
