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Thailand’s Government faces its most serious crisis in some time, after a key coalition partner decided to walk away, leaving the government on the verge of collapse.
The conservative Bhumjaithai Party announced last week it was scrapping the coalition deal after a scandal erupted over a leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.
Bhumjaithai has 69 MP’s in the house, and the unravelling of the coalition agreement leaves Paetongtarn with a razor-thin majority, a ruffled military, and an unsettled nation.
The Thai PM spoke to Hun Sen recently over the long-running border dispute that has seen the nations come to blows on several occasions in the past decades.
Earlier this week Thailand moved to all but seal off the border, a move which has dispupted the lives of thousands of people.
Hun Sen openly admitted he recorded the 17 minute call on June 15th, and later released the full version after a 9 minute excerpt was leaked
He said his aim in the conversation was "to avoid any misunderstanding or misrepresentation in official matters," and letting citizens on both sides of the border hear the real story.
Hun Sen stepped down as Cambodian leader in 2023, but he’s still heavily involved in politics and the leak is being seen as an attempt to both weaken Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and also take control of the border issue.
The Thai leader refers to Hun Sen as “uncle” on the call, and also criticises her own military commander, leading to accusations that Paetongtarn has let Hun Sen take the upper hand in the stoush.
It’s a brave Thai PM who criticises the Army, given the habit of intervening directly in the country’s politics.
The Shinawatra family already have a reputation in clashes with the military - the Army has previously ousted Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin Shinawatra and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra as Thai prime minister.
The comments have reportedly enraged the military leadership, with some even demanding an official apology.
For the Thai government it just adds to the growing list of woes, including a weak economy and a sense of inexperience at the top level.
For a relative political novice it could prove a fatal blow, as Paetongtarn’s coalition has always relied on pro-military parties that have some major issues with her political family.
Thaksin Shinawatra remains popular with the rural voters, but he is hated by many of Thailand’s urban elites, who regard him as a direct threat to the country.
He returned to Thailand in 2023 after years in exile, and he now regularly appears in public. Many Thai conservatives beleive its really Thaksin in control as a master manipulator.
Confirmation that the National Anti-Corruption Commission is preparing to investigate the Prime Minister’s “ethics” regarding the controversial phone call could now signal a serious move to prosecute her and remove her from power.
If that occurs, Thailand faces a complicated situation, with the prospect of a new election, or perhaps the establishment of a new ruling coalition.
While the military has said little about any future political scenarios in the country, they have intervened directly many times, and the possibility of them doing so again remains entirely possible.
- Asia Media Centre
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