|
Xi Jinping's first state visit to Washington in over a decade opens today with unusual ceremony. On trade, rare earths, AI, Taiwan and Iran, the two governments are not only negotiating over outcomes. They are also telling very different stories about what this relationship is and who is gaining ground.
When Xi Jinping steps off his plane at Joint Base Andrews this afternoon, President Trump will be there to meet him. Trump, in an unprecedented gesture, will greet Xi on the tarmac, followed by a flyover of a B-2 bomber and four F-22 fighters. The three-day program includes an arrival ceremony on the White House South Lawn, a military review in the Rose Garden, a state dinner and a visit to the National Archives.
Beijing has framed the trip in historic terms. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the two leaders' reciprocal visits within six months carry historic, milestone significance, and that China is willing to work with the U.S. to manage differences and deepen cooperation. Many Western analysts are more restrained. Edgard Kagan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) expects a visit "heavy on optics and symbolism but light on substantive progress."
Both leaders face political deadlines at home. Trump is less than six weeks from the midterm elections, while Xi returns to a year-long political buildup to next fall's Communist Party Congress. The CSIS analysis adds that a successful visit would strengthen Xi's position going into the party's Fifth Plenum in October, where the next group of Chinese leaders will be discussed.
How each side frames the relationship
The two governments describe the relationship in different language, and that framing shapes how each approaches the talks.
Beijing's framing. At the May summit in Beijing, the two leaders agreed to build what China calls a "constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability," which China's state-run Global Times describes as a new foundation for relations over the next three years and beyond. In an editorial ahead of the visit, the paper argued that competition between major powers is normal but should not define the whole relationship, and that each gain in predictability reduces anxiety in global markets. The Global Times reflects the official line rather than independent opinion, so it is best read as a signal of what the Chinese government wants.
Chinese academics who advise the government are cautiously upbeat. Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, expects the leaders to reaffirm the "strategic stability" framework and hopes for progress on military-to-military exchanges and a regular AI dialogue.
He noted that if the leaders also meet at APEC and the G20, they will have met four times this year, which he called unprecedented, and said stable trade ties would send a positive signal to markets. His Fudan colleague Wei Zongyou described China's steady, non-confrontational approach as "you fight your way, I'll fight mine," and argued that Washington cannot stop China's development through suppression or containment.
Washington's framing. American analysts often describe the same framework as a diplomatic strategy. Melanie Hart of the Atlantic Council argues that Beijing is trying to fit the Trump administration into a framework that would limit U.S. actions and make Washington more predictable, much as it tried with its "new type of great power relations" pitch to the Obama administration. Meanwhile, according to Hart, the administration has privately said its goal for the pause is to buy time to reduce China's control of rare earth supply chains, after which it plans to take tougher action. Beijing is aware of this and working to prevent it.
Where the two views meet. Both sides believe time is working in their favor. Trump expects the U.S. to take a commanding lead in AI while China's economy slows, and Xi sees the U.S. in accelerating decline. That shared confidence has produced a much calmer relationship than most people predicted a year ago. Ruby Osman of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change says both leaders find stability useful so they can focus elsewhere: Iran for Trump, and building China's domestic resilience for Xi.
Voices inside China are not uniform, either. Radio Free Asia, which is funded by the U.S. government, interviewed Chinese scholars speaking under pseudonyms for safety reasons. One political scientist argued that a high-profile reception in Washington would help Xi show his dominance over personnel decisions and diplomacy ahead of next year's Party Congress. Another independent scholar noted that bringing business leaders on a foreign trip breaks with the party's approach over the past decade, since several prominent entrepreneurs were jailed in the post-2020 crackdown.
Continue reading on the website to learn about the key agendas for the Trump-Xi summit.
-Asia Media Centre
|
