The Biden administration is proposing new arms control measures in an effort to convince Russia to de-escalate Ukraine tensions, despite Putin's longstanding violations of arms control treaties. Such a move would weaken, not strengthen, NATO's hand. Below, we've highlighted key insights and analyses of interest to the strategic deterrence community.
-Rebeccah Heinrichs
Director of KDI & Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Hudson Highlights
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs | Real Clear World
The threat of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the Sino-Russian de-facto alliance into sharp relief. U.S. policy, however, still does not reflect this reality. The upcoming National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture and Missile Defense Reviews must counter this alliance by investing in, producing, and deploying the right weapons systems, while cooperating with U.S. allies to deter China and Russia’s revisionist aims.
China and Russia's Hypersonic Weaponry Threatens US Early Warning System
Dr. William Schneider | Financial Times
For those paying attention to the worrying advances in hypersonic weaponry by China and Russia, the news that the Pentagon is pushing U.S. defense companies to hasten their own progress on hypersonic weapons is a welcome development. The race must now be on to catch up, or risk ceding the advantage to America’s adversaries.
Peter Rough | The Wall Street Journal
As the world wonders if Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine, the battle for the West is already under way. Without firing a shot, Mr. Putin has attacked the trans-Atlantic alliance at its weakest link: Germany.
In the Hudson event "Countering Russian Aggression: US Policy Options," Marshall Billingslea, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former special presidential envoy for arms control at the U.S. Department of State, responds to reporting on Russian requests for arms control concessions.
Key Insights
A Hudson Institute event hosted by Peter Rough
“The geopolitical actuality of Ukraine is only growing given the increased hybrid attacks on Western civilization, and I think it’s worse to mention that Putin's aggression against Ukraine and against the West will embolden the Chinese in the South China Sea and Taiwan also.”
Hanna Hopko
Former chair of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Ukrainian Rada
“The overall intent [of Putin's actions], according to many analysts, is most likely a change in government here in Kyiv. The ongoing conflict in the Donbas has killed more than 14,000 people over eight years. The kind of war we’re looking at now would kill that many people in a matter of days. At this point, I think if you believe that this is all a bluff, it’s an act of faith. The evidence points clearly in another direction. Russia is preparing for a major military action soon.”
Nolan Peterson
Conflict journalist reporting from Kyiv, former U.S. Air Force special operations pilot
U.S. Strategic Command Commander General Charles Richard | Air Force Magazine
“The United States, our allies, our partners, we have not faced this type of threat in over 30 years… And not just a threat, though. This is the first time ever that we have a three-party nuclear peer dynamic. And we have no history of this. This is epic. And I don’t think we’ve fully dealt with all the ramifications that this is going to have as we march into the future, but we absolutely need to.”
Markos Kunalakis | Los Angeles Times
“Nuclear weapons were once held by Ukraine, though Russia maintained full operational control of them. Kyiv gave up the nukes in a disarmament deal with Russia in the 1994 Budapest agreement, in exchange for security assurances. This essentially surrendered nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory.”
Gabriel Scheinmann | The Wall Street Journal
“At the U.N., Mr. Biden warned that cooperation is the only responsible way 'to address the urgent threats like Covid-19 and climate change or enduring threats like nuclear proliferation.' A cold-war mentality, he said, could easily 'tip from responsible competition to conflict,' leading to a serious military catastrophe. This was clearly on the president’s mind in August when he justified the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by comparing it favorably to Vietnam.
In fact, a cold war with China would mean averting a direct military confrontation. Even better, a cold war is a winnable war.”
Congressman Mike Gallagher | National Review Online
"Russia and China are signaling their nuclear prowess, and it is quite evident that their growing nuclear arsenals are foundational to their goal of making the world safe for autocracy. Any shift away from current U.S. nuclear policy would only reward Moscow’s and Beijing’s nuclear saber-rattling and encourage further provocations in places such as Ukraine and Taiwan."
Top Reads
US Offered Disarmament Measures to Russia in Exchange for Deescalation of Military Threat in Ukraine
Hibai Arbide Aza & Miguel Gonzalez | El Pais
Top Republicans Urge Biden to Reject Russia, China Demands on Missile Deployments
Joe Gould | Defense News
Long Live Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Nation-State
Christopher DeMuth | The Wall Street Journal
Russia Principles of Victory in Combat
Clint Reach & Anthony Atler | NATO Defense College
Satellite Images and Experts Challenge Russian Withdrawal Claims
Patrick Tucker | Defense One
The US Isn't Ready for a Nuclear Rivalry With China and Russia
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Enhancements to the US Nuclear Deterrent Needed Now More Than Ever
Patty-Jane Geller | Real Clear Defense
Japan Calls for Tough Response on Ukraine, Saying China Is Watching
Alastair Gale & Peter Landers | The Wall Street Journal
