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24 January 2024
New Hampshire, first and last in the nation
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Shortly after losing the New Hampshire Republican primary to Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, the sole survivor of the effort to topple the formidable frontrunner, said “New Hampshire is the first in the nation, not the last in the nation.”
Sure, New Hampshire is proudly the first primary election in the 2024 calendar (for at least the Republican primary this year), and the race for the nomination will technically continue; but, for most, New Hampshire represented the last meaningful opportunity for cracks to appear in the path to Trump’s so-called ‘inevitable’ nomination. And at this stage, Trump’s path appears unblemished.
In any ordinary primary, it would appear Haley had a relatively good night. She narrowed the 32-point margin of Trump's Iowa caucus victory over her last week; and she made inroads among first-time GOP voters (65 per cent of whom voted Haley over Trump), those whose top concerns are abortion rights and foreign policy, and self-identified ideologically moderate Republicans, according to NBC exit polls.
Ultimately though, the primary race is about momentum and while Haley may have caught wind in her sails with these minor groups of the GOP electorate, Trump is driving a speedboat. No Republican has ever won two out of three of the early primary states and lost the nomination. The former president is also the first Republican in an open, competitive primary to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in over 50 years.
If Haley could not win in New Hampshire, where Haley-favouring GOP minorities are disproportionally well represented, many believe she cannot win anywhere. Sparing a miracle for Haley, the race to the nomination appears all but over – New Hampshire may well be the first and last in the nation.
For more on the 2024 US presidential election, read the USSC's explainer Guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president by Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett
NEWS WRAP
Battles beyond the ballot box
Razor thin | In a 5-4 vote, the US Supreme Court permitted federal immigration agents to remove sections of razor wire from the US-Mexico border amid strong Republican condemnation. The Biden administration says the wire interferes with the processing and management of migrants at the border. READ MORE HERE
Courtroom drama | Trump’s defamation trial brought by E Jean Carroll was delayed by a COVID-19 scare and a request from Trump’s legal team. Despite this, Trump allies have denounced the delay as “election interference.” READ MORE HERE
Death warrant | Renewed debate around the use of the death penalty surrounds Alabama’s planned execution of a prisoner by nitrogen hypoxia on Friday. The untested method has attracted strong criticism that it amounts to unconstitutional punishment. READ MORE HERE
Depths of winter | Over 90 people have died in winter storms that swept across the United States this week, with tens of thousands more left without power. States from Washington to New York saw damage and fatalities in the extreme weather. READ MORE HERE
Strikes continue | Large-scale military strikes by the United States and United Kingdom occurred in eight different sites in Yemen on Monday. The strikes follow a succession of smaller actions against Houthi targets in Yemen in recent weeks. READ MORE HERE
"It is clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspending his presidential campaign | 21 January 2024
DID YOU USSC?
- COMMENTARY | The strategic case for democracy promotion in Asia
"Democracy is an Asian value," writes USSC CEO Dr Michael J. Green and Daniel Twining for Foreign Affairs magazine. They argue "To make creating democratic partnerships effective as a foreign-policy tool, however, the United States must ensure that regional nations take a greater lead, putting Washington in a supporting role where possible." READ MORE HERE
- PODCAST | Technology and Security (TS) podcast | Neurotechnology, cognitive liberty and information warfare with Professor Nita Farahany
In this episode of Technology and Security, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey speaks with Professor Nita Farahany about the increasing emergence of neurotechnology and what it means for national security as well as consumers, policy makers, military forces and nation states. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE.
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Was COP28 one step forward, two steps back?
In the latest USSC Briefing Room episode, United States Studies Centre (USSC) Non-Resident Fellow Lachlan Carey, Manager at RMI sat down with USSC Research Director Jared Mondschein to discuss the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28) held in Dubai last month and next steps for climate action in 2024. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
- EXPLAINER | Where does Nikki Haley stand on Australia and the world?
With Nikki Haley the last woman standing after the 'other' non-Trump candidates successive withdrawals from the GOP presidential nomination race, see where Haley stands on foreign policy, Australia and its allies. READ MORE HERE
EVENT
Election Watch 2024: Trump v. Biden redux?
The Iowa caucuses on 15 January were the first test of whether any GOP challengers can make a dent on former president Trump’s dominating lead in the Republican race to be the presidential nominee. From February, the primary races will accelerate in the lead up to a climactic Super Tuesday set to occur around the same time as some of the pending Trump trials. In the midst of this, President Biden will deliver possibly his final State of the Union address, making a direct appeal to the American people about his accomplishments and vision for the future.
Can President Biden cut through the noise around the Trump campaign? Do any GOP challengers have a shot at dethroning Trump? What should we expect in the lead up to Super Tuesday?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a live panel discussion with USSC experts Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith, Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper. We’ll give a readout on the Iowa caucus results and what it portends for the year ahead.
WHEN
30 January 2024, 6-7pm AEDT
TYPE
Live panel discussion
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23),
Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road,
The University of Sydney NSW 2006
BY THE NUMBERS
A different kind of history-making in Democratic primary
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
While most eyes are on the history-making happening in the Republican New Hampshire primary, the Democrats’ unofficial and largely symbolic presidential primary is history-making in a different way. For the first time in over 100 years and 26 successive Democrat primaries, New Hampshire has lost its “first-in-the-nation” status – no longer being the first state to officially cast its votes for the Democrats’ presidential nomination.
It comes after a controversial 2023 decision by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to alter the party’s primary election calendar to give South Carolina – who they say is more demographically representative of the American population – premiere primary position on 3 February 2024.
Protesting the DNC’s decision to move its primary to second place alongside Nevada, and in order to uphold its “first-in-the-nation” 1920 state law, Democratic New Hampshire officials went ahead with today’s primary. But by refusing to comply with the official DNC calendar, New Hampshire was penalised, and forfeited its ability to send official delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August. All this means, in the end, the results of today’s Democratic primary in New Hampshire are largely meaningless in terms of the officially determining who will represent the Democrats as presidential nominee in 2024.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
