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2 March
Biden going back in time
As the crisis in Ukraine dominated the first 10 minutes of President Biden’s first State of the Union address today, many point to the political trope that when a leader is not succeeding on the home front, you turn to a crisis overseas to rally and unite. As Associate Professor David Smith said in the United States Studies Centre (USSC)’s webinar yesterday, “That’s an entirely correct focus given the immediacy of the crisis, but it’s also something Biden would much rather talk about than other things.”
The Republican rebuttal started before the speech with a focus on Biden taking us back in time to a time to the Cold War – when we saw high inflation, a strong Soviet Union and a weak America. Once again, the Grand Old Party (GOP) is making a nostalgia case for the “good old days.” They got out first with their messaging to crucify Democrats for “defunding the police,” driving inflation and failing in Afghanistan. While Biden made the case for a crackdown on crime, fixing the economy to “lower your costs, not your wages” and robust support internationally and for veterans at home it may have come with the hearts and minds of Americans already made up.
While Fox News reported a four-point bump in his approval rating from before to after his speech, it looks unlikely that Biden’s first joint Congress address will have done enough to change the trajectory for Democrats in the midterms.
NEWS WRAP
Ground war in Ukraine
Russian soldiers pushed back | Ukrainian forces say they have repelled an attack on the country's second city Kharkiv after street-to-street fighting with Russian forces. Ukrainian forces continue to inspire, says President Biden, in their resistance to Russian invasion. As a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy bears down towards the Ukrainian capital, Russian shelling and military strikes in Kyiv are described by Ukrainian officials as “evil” and “barbaric”. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the US and the UN would not stop ramping up sanctions and penalties against Russia until the country backs down from its attacks on Ukraine. READ MORE HERE
Historic nomination for Supreme Court | President Biden announced he will nominate US Appeals Court Justice and frontrunner Ketanji Brown Jackson as the next Supreme Court justice. The nomination fulfils his pledge of "making sure there's a Black woman on the Supreme Court" and continues his efforts to have diversity in US institutions, both in demographics and experience. READ MORE HERE
Biden’s first State of the Union | Biden delivered his first State of the Union address today and, as anticipated by USSC experts, showed leadership in addressing Ukraine and the next phase of the pandemic while making a strong case for Democratic leadership ahead of the midterms. Biden’s approval rating slowly declined through mid-2021 but suffered a significant fall with the end to the US pull-out of Afghanistan in August. READ MORE HERE
Mask wearing relaxed in US | The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has relaxed changes on mask wearing now saying they don’t need to be worn indoors in areas where hospitalisations are low. Biden is also expected to move toward a full return to the workforce, leading the way with Federal government employees: READ MORE HERE
Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos.
President Biden in State of the Union address | 1 March 2022
WEBINAR | 8 March
Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine a turning point for all US allies or just NATO?
In addition to fomenting sweeping international condemnation, Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine appears to have convinced key US allies in Europe to increase defence spending to levels that US presidents of all political persuasions have requested for decades. For its part, Australia committed lethal aid to Ukraine and embraced economic sanctions against Russia while Prime Minister Morrison said “nothing is off the table” for future Australian support. But what are the broader implications of this seismic event for Australia? How will Russia’s invasion change the US approach to the Indo-Pacific? Should the Australian Government issue a new Defence Strategic Update to factor in involvement with Europe or reduced attention from the United States?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a United States Studies Centre webinar featuring USSC Senior Lecturer Dr Gorana Grgic in conversation with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Stephen Loosley AM.
WHEN:
SYDNEY | Tuesday, 8 March 2022 | 9:00-10:00am AEDT WASHINGTON DC | Monday, 7 March 2022 | 5:00-6:00pm EST
COST:
Free but registration is essential.
You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!
ANALYSIS
Finding the first Black woman for the US Supreme Court
Victoria Cooper
Research Associate, United States Studies Centre
Following the retirement announcement of Justice Stephen Breyer in January 2022, Biden reiterated that he would appoint the first-ever Black woman to the US Supreme Court as part of his broader effort to have institutions that "look like America". After a month of deliberation, on Friday last week, the president nominated Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to fill the soon-to-be-vacant spot on the bench.
Who is Ketanji Brown Jackson?
Brown Jackson was nominated to replace Attorney General Merrick Garland’s seat on the US Appeals Court in the DC Circuit in the first year of the Biden administration. Her nomination to the DC Circuit came just six days after Biden’s inauguration and was confirmed on 14 June 2021, after a smooth vetting process that won her the support of all Senate Democrats and three Republican senators in a 53-44 vote.
The Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit is widely considered the ‘second-highest court’ in the United States because its district, while the smallest in the nation, covers the US Congress and several federal agencies and therefore often makes decisions on highly sensitive issues concerning administrative and constitutional law. In her capacity as a DC judge, Brown Jackson sat on a three-judge panel that in December 2021 concluded former president Donald Trump was required to release White House records related to the January 6 riots.
Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has all the typical credentials of a Supreme Court justice, with elite postings in three highly sought-after federal clerkships, service as a federal judge, associateships at competitive private law firms and two stints at the US Sentencing Commission – a federal agency responsible for setting guidelines for criminal sentences. She even completed one of her federal clerkships under the retiring Justice Breyer between 1999 and 2000, where she oversaw contentious social issues cases from gay rights to public prayers at high school football events and even partial birth abortions.
While these experiences are typical of a Supreme Court justice, what sets Brown Jackson apart is her two years’ experience as a public defender and her experience at the Sentencing Commission. Should she be confirmed, she would be the only Judge on the bench with experience in criminal defence, and the first since 1991.
Most justices have limited civil and criminal trial experience, and even then, most serve as prosecutors. This is often because the extensive vetting process to confirm the nominations means it is easier to appoint lawyers who have abstained from controversial decisions and simply upheld law and order, rather than those who have to defend alleged criminality.
Ketanji Brown Jackson is especially unique among usual justice candidates, then, in her 2017 decision as Vice Chair of the US Sentence Commission to retroactively lighten the punitive life sentences of those jailed during the ‘three strikes law’ of the 1980s war on drugs era. This decision saw the life prison sentences of 30,000 federal prisoners, including Brown Jackson’s uncle, overturned.
BY THE NUMBERS
Support for childcare spending: Reps 11% | Dems 71%
The crisis in Ukraine scuppered Biden’s plans to win over the American public on social spending issues like universal childcare that were cut from the 2021 Infrastructure and Jobs Act and planned for the aspirational Build Back Better bill in 2022. However, recent polling by the USSC shows this may have been a good thing.
He would have been preaching to the converted with 71 per cent of his own voters supporting increased spending on universal childcare. And with only 11 per cent of Trump voters supporting this measure, going too hard on the issue in his address would likely have fallen on deaf ears for Republicans. As Republicans emphasise inflation and out-of-control government spending, harsh measures on Ukraine are more likely to win him domestic political capital at this point.
Read more By the numbers analysis here
VIDEO
Preview of Biden's first State of the Union address
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi invited President Biden to give his first State of the Union Address on 1 March 2022. Facing dwindling poll numbers and an acrimoniously divided country, could President Biden’s address win him much needed political capital ahead of the November 2022 midterm elections?
To discuss these issues before President Biden’s address, the USSC hosted a webinar event with USSC politics experts Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy Dr David Smith, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Research Associate Victoria Cooper in conversation with CEO Professor Simon Jackman.
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
