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23 November 2022

Turkey, Trump taxes and 2024

President Biden said he would be discussing the decision to run for president again in 2024 over Thanksgiving weekend with his family. Recent developments in Washington signal a stronger position for Democrats heading into 2024. In addition to outperforming expectations for the midterm elections, the US Supreme Court ruled to release former President Trump’s tax returns to the currently Democrat-led House Ways and Means Committee, after a battle over the release since 2019. The committee requested the taxes to assess the auditing of presidential taxes and whether changes in legislation were needed.

Meanwhile, after fighting a subpoena for months, former President Trump’s strongest supporter in the Senate, Lindsey Graham, testified before a Georgia grand jury on Tuesday. He answered questions on his engagement with authorities in Georgia after the 2020 presidential election as part of an investigation into efforts to overturn the results.

While Republicans assess post-midterms damages and Democrats savour success, now that Trump has announced his candidacy for 2024, the ball is in Biden’s court about whether he believes he is the one best placed to lead his party in the next presidential showdown.

 

NEWS WRAP

US veteran takes down nightclub shooter

  • Details emerge around Q nightclub shooting | A US Army veteran and another person at the LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs tackled and disarmed the gunman who killed five and injured 17 people. The 22-year-old shooter faces murder and hate crime charges. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Blinken cheers on USA in Qatar | Secretary of State Antony Blinken faced criticism for attending the World Cup in Qatar, saying it showed indifference to Qatar’s treatment of LGBTQ people and migrant workers. Tensions over LGBTQ rights in particular have flared during the first World Cup held in the Middle East. READ MORE HERE
     

  • COP27 results in ‘loss and damage’ fund | After an all-night session, COP27 announced a new ‘loss and damage’ fund to provide financial support for developing countries impacted by climate change. Despite the new fund, many said the conference resulted in no new progress on measures to limit temperature rise to 1.5oC. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Trump allowed, but may not return to Twitter | Elon Musk ran a Twitter poll asking if former President Trump’s account should be reinstated. Shortly after seeing the results narrowly support a Trump reinstatement, his old account was live again. However, Trump himself has been non-committal, citing his preference for his own platform, Truth Social. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Biden first 80-year-old in Oval Office | President Biden turned 80 on Sunday, officially becoming the first octogenarian president. As he mulls a second presidential run, other octogenarian politicians are facing similar crossroads with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (82) announcing she will step down from leadership while Mitch McConnell (80) continues in his role as minority leader in the Senate. READ MORE HERE

 

HYBRID EVENT

Views from the nation on the US alliance

In this project, funded by the Department of Defence as part of its Strategic Policy Grants Program, the research team from Griffith University, ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and United States Studies Centre engaged communities across every Australian capital city and in selected regions on how Australia should use the US Alliance to its advantage as it navigates strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific over the next 5-10 years. The project has been led by Professor Andrew O’Neil, Professor Caitlin Byrne, Professor Peter Dean, and Professor Stephan Frühling.

The nationwide consultation process resulted in a number of key findings including the following:

  • Australians remain positively predisposed towards the Alliance and find it of enduring value.
  • There is a sense of uncertainty among Australians about what the Alliance is for today, as distinct from what it is against, or what it has been in the past.
  • Many Australians believe that the Alliance needs to be extended to encompass deeper cooperation beyond the traditional defence context, including climate action.

Panelists will discuss the results of the report on Australian public perspectives on the Australia-US Alliance. Dr Michael Green, CEO, United States Studies Centre will moderate the discussion.

WHEN
CANBERRA | Monday, 5 December | 11.30am - 1.30pm AEDT

LOCATION
The National Press Club of Australia, 16 National Circuit, Barton, ACT 2600

COST
Free, but
registration is essential 

REGISTER NOW
 

ANALYSIS

Australia and Korean middle power strategy

 

Dr Michael J. Green, CEO, United States Studies Centre

Last week the Yoon government announced its Indo-Pacific Strategy. This fresh look at the geopolitical dynamics of the region is long overdue. The government of Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in were obsessed with the emerging US-China strategic competition and assumed that the regional dynamic was bipolar — which is to say that the future of the region would be defined by interactions between Beijing and Washington. This approach denied Korean agency and ignored the reality that Asia is increasingly multipolar. The key to harnessing multipolarity is cooperation among the middle powers in Asia.

In this new Indo-Pacific vision, no country presents a better opportunity for Korea than Australia. As I have noted in previous columns, no country may be more important geopolitically for Korea than Japan but reshaping the Japan relationship will be slow and hard work for historical, legal, and political reasons. Meanwhile, the Australia-Korea relationship is ripe for greater partnership.

 

This is an excerpt from Australia and Korean middle power strategy, first published in Korea JoongAng Daily on 21 November, 2022.

READ MORE HERE
 

Keep trusting in one another, play as hard as you can, for you and your families, your team-mates, and the whole country is rooting for you.​

​​​​​​ President Biden to the US football team ahead of their first FIFA world cup game | 21 November, 2022

 

BY THE NUMBERS

Australian and Japanese sense of security in US alliance

Australian and Japanese respondents in USSC’s polling confirm a long-term trend of strong and definitive support for each country’s military alliance with the United States, with only very small minorities — 12 per cent in Australia and eight per cent in Japan — saying it makes their nations less secure. Accordingly, nearly three-quarters of Australians and around half of the Japanese respondents said US troop numbers in their nations should either stay the same or increase. Australians and Japanese also see the value in a new Australia-Japan military alliance with 75 per cent in both nations supporting the idea.

 

This is an excerpt from US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Victoria Cooper

READ MORE HERE
 

VIDEO

Is a 2023 Taiwan invasion imminent or implausible?

Chinese President Xi Jinping secured his historic third term amidst a message of heightened urgency to “reunite” with Taiwan. US officials have come out saying a move to take Taiwan could happen by 2023, but Director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program, Bonnie Glaser says this timeline is based on “sheer speculation.” Does the escalating war of words indicate an invasion is imminent? What are the variables that will influence Taiwan timelines going forward? What would a Taiwan invasion mean for the United States and Australia?

To discuss these issues, the United States Studies Centre hosted a special event featuring Bonnie Glaser in conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.

 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping America — and critically — their implications for Australia.

CRICOS Number: 00026A

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