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6 March 2024
Super questions on Super Tuesday
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Results from the Super Tuesday contests are imminent. Voters in 15 states and American Samoa cast their ballots to nominate their preferred presidential candidate for the Democratic and Republican parties today. Yet, while the number of simultaneous elections is great, the “super” seems to be missing in Super Tuesday.
Typically a high point in the US political primary season, Super Tuesday ordinarily unveils the likely nominees for both parties in a “super” day of voting where about a third of total delegates are decided. In fact, on the Republican side, every winner of the majority of Super Tuesday contest since it became ‘super’ in 1988 has won the party’s nomination at the national convention.
However, this year, even in the open Republican contest, neither of the parties’ frontrunners are facing serious questions about their potential for victory. The race to the nomination and the presidency appears all but certainly to be a rematch between President Biden and former president Trump.
As much as there may not be super results, there are a number of super questions that Super Tuesday poses…
LOOKING FOR AN EXPERT?
It’s a big week in US politics with the US Supreme Court deciding Trump’s eligibility to be listed on states’ primary ballots on Monday 4 March, the Super Tuesday races on 5 March and President Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday 7 March. The United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney is home to the nation’s leading expert analysis on the week’s events.
Our recent publications include:
- Biden or Trump, we can still shape the agenda ahead
- A guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president
USSC Briefing Room | Is Biden in the ‘Danger Zone’ with Bruce Wolpe
Has Donald Trump peaked? Let’s take a closer look at this numbers.
For a full list of our experts and their commentary, be sure to check out our US politics topic on the USSC website.
For media enquiries, contact: +61 2 9114 2622 or email: ussc.media@sydney.edu.au
NEWS WRAP
Trump back on the ballot
Court vs Colorado | The US Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump can remain on primary ballots since, in the opinion of the Court, only Congress can find presidential candidates to be constitutionally ineligible because of having engaged in insurrection. The ruling nixes challenges to Trump’s eligibility in multiple states due to his involvement in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. READ MORE HERE
OZEAN | Nine ASEAN leaders gathered in Melbourne this week for the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit, the largest Australian gathering of world leaders in the last five years. Regional security and economic prosperity will be focuses of the summit. READ MORE HERE
John vs John vs John | Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced he is ending his record-length tenure as a Senate leader. Three Senate colleagues — all named John — will compete to replace him. READ MORE HERE
Sinema steps down | Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema will not seek re-election for her Arizona Senate seat, ending speculation over a rare three-way race for a pivotal contest. Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake will now face Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego for the seat. READ MORE HERE
Taylor Tuesday | Pop star Taylor Swift urged her millions of US fans to vote in the Super Tuesday primaries but did not endorse a particular candidate. Swift endorsed Biden in the 2020 election, and progressives are hoping for similar support this year to help boost turnout among young voters. READ MORE HERE
“BIG WIN FOR AMERICA!!!”
Donald Trump reacting to the US Supreme Court decision on the 14th Amendment | 4 March 2024
EVENT
Election Watch 2024: Super Week with Planet America's Chas Licciardello
A single week in the 2024 election cycle will see the Super Tuesday primary contests play out in 15 states and President Biden deliver what could be his final State of the Union address to Congress. The week will be an opportunity for both Biden and former president Donald Trump to stamp their authority on their respective party nominations and build momentum ahead of the 5 November general election — or a final chance for their longshot opponents to make a mark.
What do the results of Super Tuesday mean for the 2024 election? Will Biden’s State of the Union allay concerns about his age? Who is on Trump’s vice president shortlist and why?
To answer these questions, please join us for a live panel featuring Chas Licciardello, co-host of popular television show “Planet America” on ABC TV, in conversation with Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith and USSC Research Editor Victoria Cooper, moderated by USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein.
WHEN
8 March 2024. 6.00pm–7.30pm AEDT
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW
DETAILS
Free, but registration is required
BY THE NUMBERS
Trump could secure requisite delegates within 10 days
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
To win the Republican nomination in August, hopefuls for the nomination must win at least 1,215 delegates. That number of delegates, 1,215, will only become available through the primaries held up to 12 March, so even if Trump were to have had a freakish 100 per cent success rate before Super Tuesday, it would not have been enough to wrap up the nomination before now, mathematically speaking.
Today’s election will reveal the allegiance of a further 865 delegates across 15 states and one territory, bringing the total number of delegates awarded to 1,196 so far. After today, more than half the available delegates remain, but there might not be much of a contest left.
Going into today’s race with 273 delegates already pledged to vote for him, Donald Trump has a considerable mathematical lead over Nikki Haley’s 43 delegates. Even if Haley remains in the race beyond 5 March, a good result for Trump today could mean the former president may have the nomination cinched within a number of days or will have a lead so considerable over his challenger that Haley’s prospects of securing the requisite 1,215 delegates is untenable. Time will tell how long Haley hangs on.
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University of Sydney NSW 2006
