13 March 2024AUKUS progress loading… By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor Tomorrow, 14 March 2024, marks a year since the announcement of the AUKUS 'Optimal Pathway’ between prime ministers Anthony Albanese, Rishi Sunak and President Joe Biden. The Optimal Pathway revealed the intended plan for how the SSN-AUKUS (a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine) would be constructed and delivered. Month-on-month, steps are being made towards the realisation of Australia’s sovereign nuclear-powered submarine capability (often referred to as AUKUS Pillar I). - In February 2024, Australian Navy personnel reported to US submarine tender;
- In January 2024, the first cadre of Australian officers graduated from the US Navy’s Nuclear Power Training Unit;
- In December 2023, an Australian steel company won a A$15 million contract to use Australian steel in its future SSN-AUKUS submarines;
- In November 2023, in a A$128 million investment, the Australian Government authorised 4,000 additional university places in STEM-related courses crucial to the future of AUKUS; and
- In July 2023 the Australian Submarine Agency was established to manage and oversee the delivery of Australia’s nuclear powered program.
In a particularly significant step – or leap – the US 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included Australia in the US Defense Production Act as a domestic source. This historic first enabled Australian businesses to receive US defence loans and purchasing contracts; permitted Australian workers to have training in US shipyards; and allowed Australians to
maintain US submarines in Australia. However, headwinds remain. USSC polling shows a plurality (42 per cent) of Australians think the AUKUS submarines are not worth their A$368 billion cost over 30 years – the largest ever Australian defence investment. Support is particularly waning among younger generations, with a only third of those aged between 18-34 thinking AUKUS is a good idea for Australia; and a major USSC report, AUKUS inflection point, showed Australia faces steep challenges to realise the 20,000-strong workforce required to build and sustain the AUKUS submarines. As Professor Peter Dean said on the latest episode of the USSC Briefing Room, there certainly is still a lot to be ironed out in delivery of the agreement, but the kind of momentum, energy and engagement seen so far is most important at this stage.
NEWS WRAPNew military assistance for Ukraine - Aid on the way for Ukraine | The White House announced a US$300 million military assistance package for Ukraine. This follows the delay of a Senate-backed US$95 billion foreign aid package passed in the House, with opposition among Republicans only growing. READ MORE HERE
- Hur v. House | Testifying before the House Judiciary Committee, former special counsel Robert Hur defended his depiction of the president as “an elderly man with a poor memory” and his decision not to recommend charges in his report investigating Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents. READ MORE HERE
- Biden-Bibi strain | Days after President Biden publicly opposed a potential Israeli military operation in Rafah, a senior Israeli official accused the Biden administration of trying to undermine the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The comments came after a US intelligence threat assessment cited deepening “distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule” since the war began in October. READ MORE
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- Trump didn’t lunge for the wheel | According to Trump’s former driver, on January 6 2021 the former president was insistent on going to the Capitol but “never grabbed the steering wheel.” House administration Republicans accuse the Jan 6 committee of burying the driver’s testimony because it refutes their ‘indisputable’ conclusion that Trump made efforts to join rioters at the Capitol. READ MORE HERE
My fellow Americans, the issue facing our nation isn’t how old we are; it’s how old are our ideas. President Joe Biden | State of the Union Address | 7 March 2024
Unlocking economic security agenda: A strategic playbook for Australia A new report by Non-Resident Fellow Helen Mitchell analyses the current economic security challenges facing Australian policymakers and provides a playbook to help Australia navigate its economic future.
IN THE MEDIA | How terrible would a second Trump presidency be for Australia? Terrible enough
USSC CEO Dr Michael Green, in an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, talks through what a second Trump presidency might mean for the United States and US foreign policy. He concludes it would be "terrible", but "it wouldn't be as terrible as people think." READ MORE HERE
COMMENTARY | Why women will swing the US election
"[American] women have voted for the Democratic candidate at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980" writes Research Associate Ava Kalinauskas in the Australian Financial Review. What role might they have this year? READ MORE HERE
COMMENTARY | Donald Trump’s third presidential nomination has never been in doubt. He’s made an art of political survival
In The Conversation, Research Director Jared Mondschein writes Trump's strong performance in the primaries and continued support is a warning to those that continue to count him out. READ MORE HERE
BRIEF | Daylight savers or night wasters? The case against permanent daylight saving time in the United States
Research Associate Samuel Garrett breaks down the controversial Sunshine Protection Act proposal and the drama of permanent daylight savings time in the United States. READ MORE HERE
COMMENTARY | Delivering on the Quad’s tech agenda
Non-Resident Fellow Jennifer Jackett, in The Strategist, says that the Quad needs to double down on the implementation of its tech-related announcements to prove it can deliver results for the region. READ MORE HERE
BRIEF | Ambitiously grey: Pursuing an active Australian military approach in the grey-zone
In this USSC brief, Thomas Lonergan, details the security risk of China's grey-zone tactics to Australia's national interests and what Australia might do to deny and prepare for military conflict. READ MORE HERE
Thirteen mentions of "my predecessor" and other hints in Biden's State of the Union addressBy Victoria Cooper, Research Editor On 7 March 2024, President Biden delivered what might have been his last State of the Union address. The over-hour long, mostly-gaffe proof speech was lauded as proof that the president can perform despite criticisms of his older age and led to a flurry of op-eds
praising his unexpectedly energetic performance (including one in the Wall Street Journal titled, 'State of the Union Shows There's Life in the Old Boy Yet'). The State of the Union address laid out some clues about how Biden intends to go about his 2024 re-election campaign. Here's three key takeaways: - Biden intends to drive turnout by reminding voters of the alternative: Donald Trump. The president referred to
"my predecessor" 13 times throughout his address, contrasting his and the former president's policies and approaches. In particular, Biden pointed to differences on democracy and rights at home, such as with the 6 January insurrection and reproductive rights — and abroad, with their support for Ukraine...
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