March 2026
Models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD) for March to May (autumn) 2026. This suggests that extreme wet or dry conditions are unlikely, although a broad range of rainfall outcomes remains possible. Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for March to May (autumn) and April to June 2026.
Recent conditions:
- February rainfall: rainfall was above average in the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts due to Tropical Cyclone Mitchell. A series of thunderstorms in late February also brought some rain to the Great Southern. However, most of the SWLD has been tracking below average for rainfall since November.
- February temperatures: In the SWLD maximum temperatures were average to above average and minimum temperatures were average.
- Tropical Cyclone Mitchell: Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mitchell tracked along the Pilbara Coast, reaching peak intensity as a Category 3 system (Severe TC) on 8 February as it passed Karratha. It weakened to a Category 1 system on 9 February, before making landfall as a tropical low on the Gascoyne coast east of Shark Bay around 1am on 10 February and continued to move inland. Mitchell was the ninth TC in the Australian Area of Responsibility in the 2025–26 season and the fifth system to make landfall on the Australian coastline. It brought widespread rain to the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts. For more information on the Australian tropical cyclone season check the Bureau of Meteorology webpage.
- The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn 2026, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services), identifies a heightened risk of bushfire risk in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Increased autumn fire risk has been identified for regions in southern, central, and eastern NSW, large parts of Victoria, extending to parts of southeast South Australia. In southern WA, an elevated fire risk is forecast along the south coast due to increased long term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits.
Rainfall summary
Rainfall from November 2025 to 2 March 2026 was below average for much of the SWLD. The highest total since November was 170 mm at Bowgada (south of Morawa), while the lowest was 8 mm at Muja Power Station (near Collie).
Figure 1: Rainfall (mm) totals for 1 November 2025 to 2 March 2026 in the SWLD. Bowgada has recorded the highest total of 170 mm, the lowest was Muja Power Station 8 mm.
Figure 2: Rainfall decile map for 1 November 2025 to 2 March 2026 in the SWLD. Indicating mixed rainfall deciles for the SWLD.
Climate driver outlook: possibility of an El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole this year
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides forecasts of ENSO and the IOD from 13 different climate models. Although forecast skill for both ENSO and IOD is at its lowest at this time of year due to the autumn predictability barrier, there is consensus amongst the models. Twelve of the 13 models indicate an El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean, and 7 of the 13 models indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing by July. While forecast skill remains low, the model consensus provides increased confidence in the outlook.
Figure 3: Pacific Ocean Nino 3.4 forecast from 13 climate models, indicating that 12 models are forecasting an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean developing from July. Source: WMO
Figure 4: Forecast of DMI (the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index) from 13 climate models, indicating that 7 of 13 models are forecasting a positive IOD developing in July. Source: WMO
While El Niño events do not always result in below average seasons in the SWLD, an El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can lead to drier and warmer conditions. The last 5 El Niño and positive IOD seasons were: 1982, 1994, 2006, 2015 and 2023. With 2023 being particularly challenging in the Central West and Central Wheatbelt due to below average rainfall and a hot spring finish. It is important to note, however, that every El Niño is different, and any event that develops in 2026 will not be identical to those in the past.
The current mean sea level pressure anomaly map from European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for June to August (winter) indicates higher than normal pressure over Western Australia, which may lead to fewer cold fronts over the SWLD in winter. This pattern suggests the possibility of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), effectively shifting rain-bearing cold fronts further south. It is important to note that this forecast also has low skill, as forecast accuracy generally decreases with lead time.
Seasonal Bushfire Outlook autumn 2026
The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn 2026, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services), identifies a heightened risk of bushfire risk in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Increased autumn fire risk has been identified for regions in southern, central, and eastern NSW, large parts of Victoria, extending to parts of southeast South Australia. In southern WA, an elevated fire risk is forecast along the south coast due to increased long term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits.
Figure 6: Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn 2026 indicating higher fire risk along the south coast of Western Australia. Source: afac
Rainfall outlooks
Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.
Figure 7: Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, second group includes Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 8 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for March 2026. This neutral model consensus applies for May and June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. For April, July and August, there is model consensus for below median rainfall. It is important to note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 8: Single month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to August 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for March, May and June. Model consensus is for below median rainfall for April, July and August. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for March to May (autumn) 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible. For April to June through to June to August (winter) there is model consensus for below median rainfall, due to the forecast for an El Niño and positive IOD.
Figure 9: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to June to August (winter) 2026. For March to May (autumn) there is model consensus for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. For April to June to June to August (winter) there is model consensus for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for March 2026. This neutral model consensus is also for May, June and July 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. For April and August there is model consensus for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 10: Single month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to August 2026. Model consensus is for a neutral outlook for March, May, June and July. For April and August, model consensus is for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for March to May (autumn) 2026; 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook is also for May to July. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible. For April to June and June to August (winter), there is model consensus for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 11: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to May to July 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © State of Western Australia (Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development), 2026
