NEWS WRAP

Pushing Putin, provoking Beijing

• Biden pushes back on Putin, backs Ukraine | New US intelligence of a possible Russian-planned attack on Ukraine as early as 2022 led to a stern phone call between President Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin yesterday. Biden shared “deep concerns” over Russian military activity, and said he would not rule out Ukraine's inclusion in NATO - a sore spot for Russia. READ MORE HERE
   
• Australia joins Biden’s Beijing boycott | The United States confirmed, while it will send athletes, it will not send officials and diplomats to the 2022 Winter Olympic games in Beijing, aligning with the recommendation from USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow John Lee in September. Citing the US commitment to advancing human rights, the decision comes despite China’s warning that such a 'provocative' move by the United States and its allies would be met with “firm countermeasures”. READ MORE HERE
   
• Vale Bob Dale | Flags flew at half-mast on Sunday for the death of former Republican senator Robert J. Dole, aged 98. Dole’s extraordinary record of public service included serving in the Second World War, representing Kansas in the Senate from 1969-1996, and running for the US presidency three times. President Biden praised Dole’s efforts of bipartisanship, tenacity and patriotism. He will be lie in state in the US Capitol rotunda. READ MORE HERE
   
• Dems’ deadline to deliver | The White House is scrambling to the finish line in 2021 with the “last possible date” to address the debt limit (15 December) only a week away. Motivated after Democrats’ recent congressional victories, Republicans vow not to allow a further increase in the debt limit. The National Defense Authorization Act is also caught in the crosshairs of disagreements across the aisle and between Democratic factions. The window of opportunity for Democrats’ triple-hold on the White House and both chambers of Congress may be rapidly closing. READ MORE HERE
   
• Australian MP: Save Australia! | Appearing on US far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ Infowars web series, Australian Nationals MP George Christensen made waves for his support of comments comparing Australian COVID-19 quarantine facilities to the Auschwitz concentration camp, and encouraging international viewers to protest outside Australian embassies. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Biden's 'lattice' Asia policy not meshing

Susannah Patton
Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre

In the words of US President Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, in its foreign policy the United States is building a "latticework" of alliances and partnerships - a more flexible and ad hoc approach to international architecture.

This focus on working with friends and allies signals a rejection of former president Donald Trump's unilateralist and confrontational approach, and a will to build flexible coalitions of like-minded countries to support the priorities of the United States, especially when it comes to dealing with China.

Yet the Biden administration is not traditionally multilateralist.

Indeed, in Asia, this has seen the administration invest more energy in new groups like the Quad and AUKUS.

The Quad is a strategic dialogue between the United States, India, Japan and Australia, while AUKUS is a trilateral security pact involving Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States for the Indo-Pacific region, in which the latter two countries will help Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

But what about established regional multilateral institutions such as the US partnership with ASEAN (Association of South-east Asian Nations), EAS (East Asia Summit) and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)?

A lattice is a structure made from strips of wood or other material that cross over each other with spaces in between. Are ASEAN, EAS and APEC "the spaces in between" in US strategy?

When it comes to ASEAN, the Biden administration's performance in 2021 was merely a "pass". It turned up at key meetings, redressing the Trump administration's neglect, but its engagement still lags behind other partners. Australia and China saw their relations with ASEAN elevated to "comprehensive strategic partnerships"; the United States did not.

Washington is now reportedly proposing to host a summit with ASEAN leaders, but this will come almost two years after COVID-19 forced the cancellation of an earlier planned meeting.

In contrast, the Quad has become a lynchpin of US Indo-Pacific strategy, with President Biden prioritising two leaders' meetings this year, including a virtual summit within two months of taking office.

Though many of Mr Biden's Asia team served in the Obama administration, this early focus on "minilateralism" is distinct from Mr Obama's later investment in traditional Asian multilateralism.

Revealingly, during a speech in Singapore in August, US Vice-President Kamala Harris spoke of "new, results-oriented groups", subtly betraying Washington's impatience with the region's existing architecture.

It is apparent that there is a tension between the Quad and ASEAN-centric institutions in Mr Biden's Asia strategy - yet Washington's engagement with regional multilateral institutions remains essential.

This is an excerpt of an article published in The Straits Times.

BY THE NUMBERS

The ever-changing US views on gun control

Just 52 per cent of Americans think laws surrounding the purchase of firearms should be stricter, down from 67 per cent in March 2018 and at its lowest point since 2014. Attitudes towards gun laws have fluctuated in recent years, partly in response to the party of the sitting president but also as a reaction to major mass shootings. The highest number of Americans wanting stricter firearm laws was 78 per cent in 1990 under President George H.W. Bush, when Gallup began polling on the topic. The lowest point was 43 per cent in 2011 under President Obama.

Read more By the numbers analysis here

THE ALLIANCE AT 70 |  COMMENCING CONSULTATIONS

The following is an excerpt from the new release The Alliance at 70 from Major General Duncan Lewis AO DSC CSC, Director-General of Security (2014-19), Australian Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, the European Union and NATO (2012-14), Secretary of the Department of Defence (2011-12) and Major General, Australian Army (retired 2005)

Reflections from Major General Duncan Lewis

A lifetime of work both in and out of uniform in the national security space has given me what some might consider a rare opportunity to see the Alliance in operation.

I have had the privilege to live the Alliance at all levels, from junior infantry officer to Secretary of the Department of Defence, from Ambassador to NATO to National Security Advisor and intelligence agency head. I have worked the Alliance from Afghanistan to the South China Sea and from the foxhole to the National Security Committee of Cabinet table.

In 2011, in San Francisco, we marked the 60th anniversary of the ANZUS signing ceremony at the Presidio, the very place where the original treaty was signed in 1951. As the Secretary of Defence, I sat at the table watching the relationship and the friendship between the Australian delegation and our opposite numbers on the US side. It was very special. We, of course, spoke at that meeting of operations in Afghanistan.

My mind drifted back momentarily to the night a decade earlier, at Khandahar Airport, where at the back of a burned-out aircraft hangar, I handed over the deployed Australian SAS Squadron to the operational control of Brigadier Jim Mattis. I was Commander of Australian Special Operations and travelling at the time with General Peter Cosgrove, the Chief of Army.

I recall saying to General Mattis, ‘I am entrusting our Australian soldiers to your command and your care – please look after them.’ Several weeks later, safely back in my headquarters, I received a wonderful hand-written note from Mattis saying I should have no concern, he would look after my soldiers as he would his own – and he did. It was a very touching note but the exchange reflected the deeply entrenched trust that existed between our two forces.

Today, my son is deployed on operations in the Middle East. He is a young officer embedded in a US unit and under another US commander. I know that as General Mattis looked after my soldiers, my son too will be treated like ‘their own.’ Such is the depth of the Alliance.

ANZUS, like all successful and enduring alliances, depends on shared interests and deep trust. We have these characteristics in great measure. The United States and Australia can readily share intelligence, synchronise and coordinate their security and defence policies, ensure commonality of equipment and develop and adopt doctrines to facilitate military interoperability.

VIDEO

A seat at the table: The role of regional multilateral institutions in US Indo-Pacific strategy

Did you miss last week's webinar? To launch the report A seat at the table: The role of regional multilateral institutions in US Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States Studies Centre hosted a discussion featuring report author Susannah Patton, Research Fellow in USSC's Foreign Policy and Defence Program; Hoang Thi Ha, Lead Researcher at the ASEAN Studies Centre and Co-coordinator of the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; and Dr Prashanth Parameswaran, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center in conversation with Dr Peter Lee, Research Fellow in USSC's Foreign Policy and Defence Program.

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#RememberingPearlHarbor