20 May 2026

New polling from the New York Times and CBS has President Trump’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest of his second term. For the first time, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator has his approval rating below 40%. However, his approval rating is still higher than it was after January 6, 2021 and it is more than 10 points higher than the lowest lows under presidents George W. Bush, Truman and Nixon.

While these are not numbers Republicans want to see less than six months out from the midterms, there are reasons for Republicans to be hopeful. President Trump has used midterm primaries to aggressively pursue political retribution against so-called “RINOs” (Republicans in name only) who broke from President Trump on key issues. Republican primaries over the past week have yielded strong support for President Trump rather than incumbent local officials. Five state senators in Indiana lost their seats in a primary challenge to a Trump-backed challenger after they did not support Indiana’s re-districting attempt last year. Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy lost his seat in a primary after voting to impeach President Trump in 2021. President Trump’s influence was so strong, Cassidy didn’t even come in second.

And today, one of the biggest primary days of the midterm elections, a prominent Republican critic of Trump, Representative Thomas Massie , became the latest example of what happens if you defy the president.

The power of Trump's endorsement looms large ahead of the Texas primary runoff next week between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and "ethically challenged" Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats celebrated Trump's endorsement of Paxton because he performs worse in the polls against the Democratic candidate James Talarico.

These results show us that President Trump still holds tremendous sway within his party, but whether this overcomes the impact of his approval deficit in the midterms remains to be seen. Every seat counts in the battle for Congress. With Virginia’s attempt at redistricting blocked, Republicans are currently likely to gain between four and eight more seats than Democrats will from the redistricting battles. The newly created districts will truly test whether Trump can drive support even when his name is not on the ballot. If this experiment fails, the power of the approval rating may eclipse all other factors and radically reshape the House.

Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact

Lead image: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese take a selfie during Takaichi's visit to Australia (Getty).

"I'm not going to vote with the party if they're going to bankrupt this country."

Congressman Thomas Massie at a recent campaign stop | 18 May 2026

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