31 January 2024Middle East, Ukraine threaten to derail Biden’s re-election bidOver the weekend, three American soldiers were killed in a drone strike on a base in Jordan. This escalation in tensions in the Middle East further complicates President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election as he balances domestic issues with increasingly
politicised international issues. Within his own party he is facing increasing pressure to back away from what was once bipartisan support for Israel, while he is being flanked on the right by moves to end military support for Ukraine. The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were determined by 78,000 and 43,000 votes, respectively — largely of independent voters across six swing states. The foreign policy issues consuming much of President Biden’s time and energy at the moment will do little to curry favour with this cohort. Meanwhile, former president Trump is campaigning on his brand as a dealmaker, promising that he would “get the Israeli situation resolved” and settle the Ukraine war “in one day.” Unlike Biden, he will not be judged on his progress (or lack thereof) come election day. As Trump moves closer to securing the Republican nomination, research associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett have launched a new Trump tracker — showing his on-the-record comments on campaign issues from Ukraine and immigration to military spending and China.
NEWS WRAPThree US troops killed in Jordan - Biden decides how to hold Iran responsible | After vowing to retaliate after Iran-backed militants killed three US troops and injured 34 others in a drone strike in Jordan, President Biden today said he has decided on the US response to the attack but did not elaborate further. These are the first US military fatalities since the Hamas' attack on 7 October.
Biden has said that he does hold Iran responsible. READ MORE HERE
- Mayorkas responds to impeachment allegations | Citing “wilful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and a “breach of public trust” the US House Committee on Homeland Security is proceeding with articles of impeachment against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of security of the southern border. In a letter to lawmakers, Mayorkas called the allegations “baseless”. READ MORE HERE
- Border deal DOA, bipartisan tax bill AOK | Demonstrating the precarious nature of his position as speaker of the House, on Friday Mike Johnson said the bill with funding for Ukraine, Israel and immigration would be “dead on arrival” on the House floor after backlash from Republicans. However, he is reaching across the aisle for a tax deal which helps businesses and progresses the Child Tax Credit in order to reach the two-thirds majority he needs. READ MORE HERE
- Judge to rule on Trump’s real estate dissolution | In the wake of being found liable in a civil defamation suit with writer E. Jean Carroll, former president Trump’s real estate empire may be ordered to be “dissolved” after Judge Arthur Engoran found the Trump Organization committed fraud. Analysis of more than 60 years of similar cases by the Associated Press determined that the Trump organisation is the only large business “threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses.” READ MORE HERE
- Supreme Court sides with Biden in border dispute | Last week, the US Supreme Court said the US Border Patrol could remove barbed wire set up by the Texas National Guard along their southern border. In response, 25 Republican governors shared a joint statement in solidarity with Texas Governor Greg Abbott. READ MORE HERE
- EXPLAINER | Tariffs, travel bans and firing bureaucrats: What’s in store for a second Trump term?
Research associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett track former president Trump's policy statements on issues from Taiwan to abortion. READ MORE HERE
- VIDEO | Election Watch 2024: Biden vs Trump redux?
Research Director Jared Mondschein, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith and Research Editor Victoria Cooper discussed what to expect in the 2024 election in a panel discussion with Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck.
- COMMENTARY | Divider-in-Chief seizes Republican crown, but not yet America’s
Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe writes in the Sydney Morning Herald about the difference between support for former president Trump between the primaries and the general election. READ MORE HERE
US presidential election deciding votes
2016 77,744 | 2020: 42,844Former president Trump secured a resounding electoral college victory in 2016 – securing 306 delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 232 (the actual vote was slightly less because seven delegates defected). Yet Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes with a 2.1 per cent margin of victory. The election came down to 77,744 votes in three swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020, President Biden flipped all three states as well as Arizona and Georgia – winning the popular vote by 4.5 per cent (7 million
votes). However, in the electoral college system, the decision was much closer and the results in some key states were not known until weeks after the election. Three states – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin – with a shared 42,844 votes across them ultimately handed the election to Biden. In two of the last six presidential elections, the electoral college results were at odds with the popular vote. Following the contentious debate around the election results in 2020 and a likely Trump and Biden showdown again in 2024, it is clear the election results are likely to be close.
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