No images? Click here 6 September 2023Can Congress come together?By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor It’s September, the August recess is over, the US Senate is back in session, the US House is due back next week, and Congress seems nowhere near prepared to pass the spending bills needed to prevent a government shut down before the end of the month. Before the August recess, the Senate Appropriations Committee had approved spending bills for all 12 government departments, with votes on the bills due to hit the Senate floor in mid-September. But it’s a different story in the House, with only one of the must-pass bills making it through appropriations, and major ideological fights over limits to government spending and culture war issues slowing progress. Members of the Republican House Freedom Caucus insist on paring back spending to US$1.47 trillion, US$120 billion below what was agreed by President Biden and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in late May this year. Hardline members have also pushed to claw back funding for Ukraine and amend so-called “woke” policy measures, like diversity and inclusion programs, abortion access and government assistance programs. As McCarthy struggles to lock down needed votes and juggle the competing demands of the Republican party, the White House has called on Congress to pass a short-term ‘continuing resolution’ which would continue to fund government departments if negotiations wear on into the new government fiscal year beginning on 1 October. But, with only a slim nine seat Republican majority in the House, even a continuing resolution would require the unlikely support of at least three-quarters of Republicans in the House Freedom Caucus. According to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the situation in the House is “a pretty big mess.” With such a clear impasse within parties, across the aisle and between the chambers, all this begs the question: can Congress come together to avoid a government shut down? NEWS WRAPProud Boys leader receives long jail sentence
![]() “As evidenced by my signature below, I do hereby waive formal arraignment and enter my plea of NOT GUILTY to the Indictment in this case” President Trump in court filing in Fulton County Superior Court | 31 August 2023 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT ![]() Did you USSC?
BY THE NUMBERS Why has Trump’s lead almost doubled?By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor It’s the number that 2024 election watchers are talking about this week, with the latest Wall Street Journal poll showing former president Trump’s lead as the preferred candidate in the Republican primary race to be growing among the party’s primary voters. Fifty-nine per cent of Republican primary voters cite Donald Trump as their preferred candidate. The results reveal Trump has nearly doubled his lead over the next closest challenger for the Republican nomination. Forty-six points behind, Ron DeSantis has snatched up only 13 per cent of the preferred first-choice candidate, and is now much closer to the ‘rest’ of the Republican field with Nikki Haley coming in behind him with eight per cent support. Many may rightly ask how, despite such significant political scandal and so many alternatives in the race, Trump has managed to maintain such a formidable edge over the rest of the Republican field. The Wall Street Journal poll offers a few key insights:
Importantly, the WSJ poll is a nationwide poll which often shows Trump’s favourability and preferred candidacy to be inflated above state-by-state polling averages, especially in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, for example, the first state to go to polls on 15 January 2024, Trump’s lead is still significant yet averages around 40–45 per cent, rather than the WSJ finding of nearly 60 per cent nationally. The Iowa contest, which Trump lost to Ted Cruz in 2015, could change the field and see another challenger consolidate the ‘persuadable’ cohort of Republican voters open to a non-Trump candidate. So, to keep ahead of the curve on the latest foreign policy judgements from the GOP field and what their election might mean for Australia, read our GOP candidates tracker by Research Associates, Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas. EVENT Film screening: Mr Smith Goes to WashingtonDecades before the “deep state” entered the parlance, Mr Smith Goes to Washington explores how a corrupt political machine falsifies evidence to expel the idealistic Boy Rangers leader who was appointed to the Senate. Culminating in the heroic filibuster scene, Senator Smith (in the role that catapulted Jimmy Stewart to fame), holds the floor of the Senate while his supporters rally to prove his innocence. From special appointments to legislative proceedings, the 1939 film was one of the first films preserved by the Library of Congress because it was considered so “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant.” CEO Dr Michael Green will host an audience discussion following the film. TYPE COST Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |