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6 September 2023
Can Congress come together?
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
It’s September, the August recess is over, the US Senate is back in session, the US House is due back next week, and Congress seems nowhere near prepared to pass the spending bills needed to prevent a government shut down before the end of the month.
Before the August recess, the Senate Appropriations Committee had approved spending bills for all 12 government departments, with votes on the bills due to hit the Senate floor in mid-September. But it’s a different story in the House, with only one of the must-pass bills making it through appropriations, and major ideological fights over limits to government spending and culture war issues slowing progress.
Members of the Republican House Freedom Caucus insist on paring back spending to US$1.47 trillion, US$120 billion below what was agreed by President Biden and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in late May this year. Hardline members have also pushed to claw back funding for Ukraine and amend so-called “woke” policy measures, like diversity and inclusion programs, abortion access and government assistance programs.
As McCarthy struggles to lock down needed votes and juggle the competing demands of the Republican party, the White House has called on Congress to pass a short-term ‘continuing resolution’ which would continue to fund government departments if negotiations wear on into the new government fiscal year beginning on 1 October. But, with only a slim nine seat Republican majority in the House, even a continuing resolution would require the unlikely support of at least three-quarters of Republicans in the House Freedom Caucus.
According to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the situation in the House is “a pretty big mess.” With such a clear impasse within parties, across the aisle and between the chambers, all this begs the question: can Congress come together to avoid a government shut down?
NEWS WRAP
Proud Boys leader receives long jail sentence
Pride before the fall | Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys extremist group, was sentenced to 22 years imprisonment on the charge of seditious conspiracy. It is the lengthiest sentence handed down for any Jan 6 rioter, exceeding the 18-year sentence recently served to the founder of the Oath Keepers group, Stewart Rhodes. READ MORE HERE
McConnell freezes again | As the 81-year-old Senator returns to work after experiencing a second freezing episode, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces growing scrutiny over his fitness to work, especially amid a tough legislating period on the Hill. READ MORE HERE
Biden no-show at ASEAN | Vice President Kamala Harris will take President Biden’s place at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held in Jakarta, Indonesia, this week. Biden’s decision to skip the meeting comes as the US president, unlike his Chinese counterpart, gears up to attend the G20 Summit in India and then a bilateral visit to Vietnam. READ MORE HERE
Raimondo visits China | US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and Shanghai last week, becoming the fourth high-level Biden administration official to visit Beijing in recent months. With US-China tensions intensifying around US export controls on advantaged technologies, Raimondo advocated for the interests of US labour and business and joined her administration colleagues in stressing the importance of communication to avoid conflict. READ MORE HERE
- Paxton impeachment trial | Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces a historic impeachment trial in the state’s Senate over charges of bribery, unfitness for office and abuse of public trust. While 60 of 86 Republicans voted to make him the third official in Texas history to be impeached, Paxton still maintains high approval among grassroots groups and Republican voters in the state. READ MORE HERE
“As evidenced by my signature below, I do hereby waive formal arraignment and enter my plea of NOT GUILTY to the Indictment in this case”
President Trump in court filing in Fulton County Superior Court | 31 August 2023
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
- ANNOUNCEMENT | Expressions of interest, Women in the Alliance
The Women in the Alliance initiative is now inviting expressions of interest to join the inaugural Women in the Alliance Network - a highly accomplished group of female professionals working across industries related to the Australia-US relationship who will receive exclusive opportunities designed to advance and accelerate their careers, amplify their expertise and expand their professional network. MORE INFORMATION
- INSIGHTS | Has China’s Global Development Initiative replaced its Belt and Road?
Research Associate Samuel Garrett dives into China's international development program ten years from the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative, and how infrastructure fits into China’s broader strategy for enhancing its regional and global economic influence.
- EXPLAINER | Where the ‘other’ 2024 Republican candidates stand on Australia and the world
Research Associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas curated a tracker of the foreign policy positions of the major Republican candidates, including their positions on AUKUS, trade, support for Ukraine, competition with China and the US-Australia alliance. READ IT HERE
- NEW WEBSITE | The USSC website has a new look - check it out here 👇
BY THE NUMBERS
Why has Trump’s lead almost doubled?
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
It’s the number that 2024 election watchers are talking about this week, with the latest Wall Street Journal poll showing former president Trump’s lead as the preferred candidate in the Republican primary race to be growing among the party’s primary voters. Fifty-nine per cent of Republican primary voters cite Donald Trump as their preferred candidate.
The results reveal Trump has nearly doubled his lead over the next closest challenger for the Republican nomination. Forty-six points behind, Ron DeSantis has snatched up only 13 per cent of the preferred first-choice candidate, and is now much closer to the ‘rest’ of the Republican field with Nikki Haley coming in behind him with eight per cent support.
Many may rightly ask how, despite such significant political scandal and so many alternatives in the race, Trump has managed to maintain such a formidable edge over the rest of the Republican field. The Wall Street Journal poll offers a few key insights:
- Trump’s indictments are seen as politically motivated | More than 60 per cent of Republican primary voters said each of the indictments against Donald Trump were politically motivated and without merit. The two criminal cases (one federal, one state) relating to Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result also appear to not matter to the former president’s standing, with 78 per cent saying Trump’s actions after the 2020 election were legitimate efforts to ensure an accurate vote.
- Trump appears competitive against Biden | Ultimately, Republican voters want a candidate who will beat the Democratic nominee. In a hypothetical head-to-head match up between President Biden and President Trump, the poll finds both candidates came in even at 46 per cent of voter support each, and only eight per cent undecided. At this stage, it seems unlikely any other challenger can beat those odds.
- Messaging around Trump is difficult | For other Republican contenders to beat Trump, they have to toe a careful line that distinguishes themselves as better than Trump without alienating his base of supporters by overtly criticising his campaign. The approach of Chris Christie, the candidate who has criticised Trump more than any other, and Mike Pence, the candidate who ‘crossed’ and increasingly criticises Trump, shows the consequence of throwing off that balance, with both having unfavourability ratings that are double that of their favourability among GOP primary voters. Candidates who have supported Trump or stayed predominately silent on the matter had the highest ‘favourability’ rating.
Importantly, the WSJ poll is a nationwide poll which often shows Trump’s favourability and preferred candidacy to be inflated above state-by-state polling averages, especially in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, for example, the first state to go to polls on 15 January 2024, Trump’s lead is still significant yet averages around 40–45 per cent, rather than the WSJ finding of nearly 60 per cent nationally. The Iowa contest, which Trump lost to Ted Cruz in 2015, could change the field and see another challenger consolidate the ‘persuadable’ cohort of Republican voters open to a non-Trump candidate.
So, to keep ahead of the curve on the latest foreign policy judgements from the GOP field and what their election might mean for Australia, read our GOP candidates tracker by Research Associates, Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas.
EVENT
Film screening: Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Decades before the “deep state” entered the parlance, Mr Smith Goes to Washington explores how a corrupt political machine falsifies evidence to expel the idealistic Boy Rangers leader who was appointed to the Senate.
Culminating in the heroic filibuster scene, Senator Smith (in the role that catapulted Jimmy Stewart to fame), holds the floor of the Senate while his supporters rally to prove his innocence. From special appointments to legislative proceedings, the 1939 film was one of the first films preserved by the Library of Congress because it was considered so “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant.”
CEO Dr Michael Green will host an audience discussion following the film.
TYPE
Film screening
WHERE
HOYTS Broadway, Bay Street, Broadway NSW 2007
WHEN
SYDNEY | Tuesday, 12 September 2023, 5.30-9.00pm
COST
Full price $35; Concession $25
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
