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14 August 2024
The 46th | Harris eclipses Trump in swing state poll, pushes moderate image
A new Times/Siena poll has shown Kamala Harris with a sizeable 4-point lead over Donald Trump in 3 critical swing states, as she has sought to pitch herself as a more moderate candidate on issues like immigration, healthcare and energy policy.
The poll shows Harris canvassing like a “broadly acceptable” or “generic Democrat” in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – parts of the Democrats' 'blue wall' that will be critical to any election victory.
The vice president has refashioned herself as a tough-on-immigration candidate, telling a rally last week that she would fight for “strong border security.” She has also walked back a number of her prior positions, including support for a ban on fracking and Medicare for All, or universal government-sponsored health care.
While the Harris campaign is experiencing undeniable momentum – particularly in light of how she has eclipsed President Biden’s lacklustre numbers against former president Trump – political watchers warn that it is still early days given the ephemeral nature of the news cycle.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has gone on the offensive in swing states ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next Monday, launching a blistering wave of attack ads that paint Harris as dangerously progressive.
The ads highlight Harris’ previous progressive positions, including her record as President Joe Biden’s alleged “border czar,” blaming her for a record surge of migrant arrivals, as well as her support for 'Bidenomics' when public sentiment about the economy remains largely negative. Whether Harris can overcome these attacks on her record in swing states remains to be seen.
NEWS WRAP
United States vows to defend Israel from Iran
United States deploys firepower to Middle East | US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States would “take every possible step” to defend Israel from a possible attack from Iran and its proxies, sending a guided missile submarine and aircraft carrier strike group to the region. President Joe Biden told reporters that he believes an attack from Iran could be averted if a Gaza ceasefire deal is secured in the next few days. READ MORE HERE
US bombers, spy planes headed to Australia | The United States and Australia announced plans to bolster US forces in Australia, including upgrades to air bases in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, following the annual AUSMIN talks. The announcement came in the wake of the United States, Australia, Canada and the Philippines concluding maritime drills in the South China Seas. READ MORE HERE
Hunter Biden accused of ‘influence peddling’ | US prosecutors say Hunter Biden and two associates took US$3 million in payments between November 2015 and 2017 from a Romanian oligarch who sought to "influence U.S. government agencies." US prosecutors made the allegations in a California court where Hunter Biden is on trial for tax evasion. READ MORE HERE
Iran steps up election hacking | The FBI is investigating a claim from the Trump campaign that it was targeted by Iranian hackers in a ‘phishing’ scheme. The allegations come after Microsoft released a report confirming ongoing Russian and Iranian cyber influence activity around the 2024 presidential election. READ MORE HERE
“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it: comprehensive reform. That includes strong border security."
Vice President Kamala Harris | 9 August 2024
BY THE NUMBERS
Australia and the emerging nuclear order in Northeast Asia
By Dr Christopher J. Watterson, Research Fellow
Japan and South Korea are increasingly insecure due to the growing conventional and nuclear capabilities of China and North Korea - alongside uncertainties surrounding US extended deterrence. Since the 1960s, both countries have developed latent nuclear weapons capabilities as leverage for stronger US extended deterrence commitments and as a safeguard against US abandonment. While US extended deterrence arrangements appear robust, as the threat from China and North Korea escalates, a shift in the Northeast Asian nuclear order to include US-led nuclear sharing with Japan and/or South Korea and possibly even sovereign Japanese and South Korean nuclear weapons capabilities cannot be ruled out.
My new report investigates how Australia should prepare for the emerging nuclear order in Northeast Asia. The evolving landscape will necessitate investments in defensive options for regional nuclear escalation, including long-range strike capabilities and missile defence. Download the report here.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
