NEWS WRAP

Xi secures third term as CCP leader

• Eyes on Taiwan after Xi’s party congress | President Xi was elected to a third term (the first leader to do so in several decades). After forceful language and dialling down of tone on peace/consensus, US experts are anticipating a Taiwan invasion as early as 2022/3. READ MORE HERE
   

• Donald Trump subpoenaed | The Select Committee on the January 6 Capitol riots has subpoenaed former President Trump. The subpoena says he was, "at the center of the first and only effort by any US President to overturn an election." READ MORE HERE
   

• Pollsters revert to red wave predictions | After nuanced expectations following democratic legislative victories and driving a focus on abortion, expectations of a GOP victory in both the House and Senate have strengthened again. Inflation is the dominant issue as the elections near and Republicans are heavily favoured for economic performance. READ MORE HERE
   

• Court puts Biden's student loan forgiveness on pause | Less than a week after Biden's loan forgiveness portal went live, a federal appeals court placed a temporary halt on any forgiveness. Six states sued saying the program will hurt state-owned loan providers. The court will now determine whether the legal action will be heard or dismissed. READ MORE HERE
   

• Democrats urge for negotiation with Russia | Thirty liberal House Democrats are pushing President Biden to pursue negotiation with Russia in addition to the economic punishments and military support for Ukraine. This is the most public call for a pivot from within his own party as the conflict drags on and US support is less firm. READ MORE HERE

PUBLIC FORUM

US midterms 2022 with Jane Coaston and Annabel Crabb

The United States Studies Centre invites you to a special US midterms event featuring The New York Times' Jane Coaston, ABC's Political commentator Annabel Crabb, and USSC's CEO Dr Michael Green. 

The presumption of a red wave in the US November midterms elections has been tempered by setbacks on the Republican agenda and significant legislative victories for Democrats. But the winner of the US House and Senate elections impacts far more than US domestic politics. The US posture toward China, defence funding, trade agreements and more all hinge on the makeup of Congress. For Australia, the stakes have never been higher in a US midterms election. 

What US issues are the biggest concern for US and Australian voters? What is the state of play going into the midterms? What do the midterms tell us about what to expect in the 2024 US presidential election? 

To explore these topics, USSC commissioned polling on public opinion in the United States and Australia. Join us for this special event to get a readout of key findings from US Midterms 2022 and have your chance to ask Jane Coaston and Annabel Crabb a question.  

This is a hybrid event: please register via our website.

WHEN
Sydney time: Thursday, 27 October, 6-7.30pm AEDT

LOCATION
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006

COST
Free, but registration is essential 

ANALYSIS

Frequently asked questions: 2022 US midterm elections 

Victoria Cooper, Research Associate and Ava Kalinauskas, Research Intern United States Studies Centre

What happens if Republicans win the House and/or the Senate?

If Republicans win a majority in the House or Senate, there will be both structural and legislative changes. Most notably, losing his party’s majority in the House will make winning support for President Biden’s policies and agenda far less certain and less likely.

Should Republicans win the House, Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will be replaced as Speaker of the House by a Republican representative. The Speaker of the House is a powerful and influential role. In addition to representing the party’s leadership, they are second-in-line (after the vice president) to assume presidential office, and they act as the administrative head of the largest legislative chamber in the US Congress. This enables them to determine when issues are brought to the floor for voting and to assign House members to the chamber’s various committees, which themselves have the power to conduct reviews and investigations on a range of legislative portfolios.

Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the House Minority Leader, is currently considered the frontrunner to take up the gavel should Republicans gain the majority. But his ascendance is far from certain as he will first he will need a majority of votes from the House floor at the start of the new Congress in 2023.

In terms of Republican policy priorities, the Republican agenda for the House was revealed by Kevin McCarthy in a four-part ‘Commitment to America’ on 19 September. This formal statement follows a similar campaign logic to House Republicans’ 1994 ‘Contract with America’, which was issued just six weeks before a notable “Republican Revolution” at the midterm elections that saw the party gain 54 seats in the previously Democratic-controlled House during the Clinton administration. The ‘Commitment to America’ provides three insights into what a Republican-controlled House policy agenda might look like, including:

• reduced support for government spending on the Biden administration’s Build Back Better initiatives,
• a suspension on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy projects and
• a greater emphasis on domestic manufacturing and securing supply chains.

Determining the policy direction for a Republican-controlled Senate is not as clear-cut. With fewer members than the House, much of the direction and temperature of the Republican Party in the Senate depends on the personalities and backgrounds of the senators themselves. Several Republican Senate hopefuls, including candidates in competitive races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio and Arizona, have not held office before and do not have voting records to indicate their congressional priorities or political playbook.

The Senate’s more deliberative ‘advise and consent’ functions also mean that, as opposed to a legislative agenda, the ideological positions of Senators can weigh into critical institutional decisions like the approval of Cabinet ministers, federal judges and ambassadors can often have a legacy that outlives the service terms of senators. Take, for example, the near-party line appointment of conservative-leaning Supreme Court justices Neil Gorsuch (54-45), Brett Kavanaugh (50-48) and Amy Coney Barrett (52-48) during the Republican-majority Senate under the Trump presidency.

Similarly, the House's investigative abilities under a Republican government may be used in new or different ways, casting doubt over some key ongoing investigations such as the House Inquiry into the January 6 attack on the Capitol and raising the possibility of new impeachments.

This is an excerpt from Frequently asked questions: 2022 US midterm elections, published 19 October, 2022.

BY THE NUMBERS

An increasing number of Americans believe an Australian alliance makes them more secure 

"Americans are increasingly convinced their alliances make the United States more secure. Fifty-eight per cent of Americans believe in the security granted by their partnership with Australia and 65 per cent say the same of Japan, a significant increase from the 44 per cent and 49 per cent reported in December 2021. US public support for every alliance included in the poll saw similar jumps, with 62 per cent now saying their NATO alliance makes the US more secure and marking a definitive uptick from the 44 per cent recording the same sentiment nine months earlier."

"For Australia, the high level of support for its alliances is made all the more significant as a plurality of voters across the political spectrum also consider it to be very important (44 per cent) to develop a foreign policy that is independent of global powers. Military alliances are essential to that vision as the results indicate a desire to see Australia act as part of a coalition in the Indo-Pacific rather than as a mere deputy sheriff."

This is an excerpt from US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Victoria Cooper

VIDEO

NATO's New Strategic Concept: Transatlantic security agenda and its implications for Australia

NATO’s Madrid Summit in June brought about the Alliance’s long-awaited new Strategic Concept which delivered an assessment of a much more adversarial international environment and set out a vision for at least the next decade. While the document makes it clear the 30 countries-strong alliance is attuned to the challenges from outside its core geographical and functional areas, it will be looking much closer to home for at least some time to come given the Russian Federation’s aggression in Ukraine and threats to NATO’s eastern flank. Yet, the fact the Indo-Pacific region received a mention for the very first time in NATO’s strategic communication, and Australia implicitly got called upon as a partner that will be crucial in enacting the Alliance’s strategic ambitions, should not be underestimate

To discuss these issues, the USSC hosted a webinar featuring Dr Benedetta Berti (Head of the Policy Planning Unit in the Office of the Secretary General, NATO), Ms Ciara Spencer (First Assistant Secretary, International Security Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade), Professor Stephan Frühling (Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University) and Dr Gorana Grgic (Senior Lecturer in US Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre).

This project was sponsored by NATO.

Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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