Dept of Primary industries and Regional Development graphic header

Seasonal Climate Outlook

February 2026

Summary

Models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the South West Land Division (SWLD) for February to April 2026. This suggests that extreme wet or dry conditions are unlikely, although a broad range of rainfall outcomes remains possible. There is no model consensus for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts. Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for February to April and March to May (autumn) 2026.

Recent conditions

January rainfall: below average for the SWLD.
January temperatures: low-intensity to extreme heatwave conditions impacted much of Western Australia. Several maximum temperature records were set, including 49.2°C at Shark Bay Airport on 20 January, which was the equal-9th highest January temperature on record for Western Australia. In the SWLD maximum temperatures average to above average and minimum temperatures were average.
Tropical Cyclone Luana: Luana made landfall as a Category 2 system over the Dampier Peninsula, near Derby, on 24 January. The system weakened as it moved inland, bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds as it tracked south of Derby. Luana was the second cyclone to impact the area this season, less than a month after Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley. It was the 8th tropical cyclone of the 2025–26 Australian tropical cyclone season, making this the equal second-highest number of cyclones recorded at this point in the season since reliable records of cyclone intensity began in 1980. For more information on the Australian tropical cyclone season check the Bureau of Meteorology webpage.

Outlook summary

Rainfall summary

Rainfall from November 2025 to January 2026 was below average for much of the SWLD. The highest total since November was 153 mm at the Bureau’s Kimberley weather station near Denmark, while the lowest was 5 mm at Lancelin East.

Rainfall totals in south west land division

Figure 1: Rainfall (mm) totals for 1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026 in the SWLD. Kimberley has recorded the highest total of 153 mm, the lowest was Lancelin East with 5 mm.

Rainfall deciles november-january south west land division

Figure 2: Rainfall decile map for 1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026 in the SWLD, indicating mixed rainfall deciles for the SWLD.

ENSO outlook: possibility of an El Niño forming this year

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecast from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicates warming of the Pacific Ocean and neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean. This provides an early indication that an El Niño may form sometime between May and July. Important to note forecast skill for both ENSO and IOD are at its lowest at this time of year due to the autumn predictability barrier.

Figure 3: Sea Surface Temperature forecast for May–July 2026 (showing SST anomaly in °C) from ECMWF, indicating warming of the Pacific Ocean which is an indication of an El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole is indicated to be neutral. Skill is low at this time of the year.

The Bureau’s relative R-Nino 3.4 index indicates the potential for El Niño conditions in the Pacific from June, and possibly a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (although the ECMWF SST anomaly map does not currently support this). El Niño events typically bring decreased winter–spring rainfall across eastern Australia, higher daytime temperatures across southern Australia, increased bushfire risk, more heatwaves, and a greater frequency of winter frosts. For the SWLD, past El Niño events alone do not always result in below-average rainfall, but when coupled with a positive IOD, rainfall is usually below average.

Figure 4: The Bureau of Meteorology relative Nino 3.4 Index indicating El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean in June 2026. Skill is lowest at this time of the year.

Figure 5: The Indian Ocean Dipole index indicating positive IOD developing in July 2026. Skill is lowest at this time of the year. ECWMF SST map does not indicate a positive IOD forming.

The last 5 El Niño events (with a neutral IOD, based on Figure 3: ECMWF SST map above) occurred in 1987, 1993, 2002, 2004 and 2009. Winter–spring rainfall maps for the SWLD from these past years can provide an indication of what winter–spring 2026 may look like if an El Niño were to develop. There is considerable variation in rainfall across these years, with 2002 being the driest and 1993 the wettest, indicating that there is no clear trend in SWLD rainfall in El Niño years (with a neutral IOD). However, if as the Bureau is currently suggesting, a positive IOD to form, past El Niño and positive IOD events (1982, 1994, 2006, 2015 and 2023) result in below average rainfall. It is important to remember that every El Niño is different, and any El Niño that develops in 2026 will not be identical to those in the past. Other historical maps can be found on the DPIRD website.

Rainfall winter-spring during El Nino years

Figure 6: Winter-spring (June to November) rainfall amounts for the SWLD during El Niño years 1987, 1993, 2002, 2004, 2009, indicating that there is no clear trend in winter-spring rainfall for El Niño years in the SWLD.

Break of the season

Given the forecast for warmer than normal maximum and minimum temperatures, together with below average rainfall since November, and a neutral rainfall outlook, the break of the season may occur later than normal. The map below shows the average break of the season (for the years 2000–25), based on the sowing rule of 15 mm of rainfall over 3 days since 1 April. The earliest average break of season is 14 April for Barrett Meadows weather station (in the shire of Albany), and the latest is 28 May for Dartmoor weather station (in the shire of Chapman Valley).

Figure 7: Average date of break of season for SWLD, where sowing rule is defined as 15 mm over 3 days since 1 April.

Rainfall outlooks

Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall. (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.

Figure 8: Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ the first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, while the second group covers Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.

Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD

Single month

A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 10 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for February 2026. This neutral model consensus applies up until June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. However, it is important to note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

One month rainfall outlooks Central West and Central Wheatbelt

Figure 9: Single month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to June 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for January to June. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

Three month

A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for February to April 2026; 7 models indicate below median rainfall, 8 indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall and 2 inidcate above median rainfall, meaning that there is no model consensus for these 3 months. Further ahead, there is model consensus for a neutral outlook up to May to July 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible.

3 month rainfall outlooks Central West and Central Wheatbelt

Figure 10: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to May to July 2026. No model consensus for February to April. For April to July model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

Rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD

Single month

A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for February 2026. This neutral model consensus continues up until June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

One month rainfall outlook for Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal

Figure 11: Single month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to June 2026. Model consensus is for a neutral outlook up until June. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

Three month

A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for February to April 2026; 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook continues until May to July 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

3 month rainfall outlook for Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal

Figure 12: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to May to July 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.

Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.